Before we send a cable to London announcing Tim Lincecum’s demise, though, we should probably take note of a couple of facts ... Tim Lincecum’s strikeout rate is dead in line with his career rate. Same goes for his home-runs allowed. The only real differences in his statistical performance are his walk rate and his batting average (allowed) on balls in play.
...The other thing is Lincecum’s BABiP, which is .359 this season. As you know, major-league pitchers, whether good or bad, tend to hover in the .290-.300 range. Lincecum entered the season with a career .298 BABiP. Even if his stuff isn’t what it once was, there’s simply no reason to believe he’ll keep giving up a BABiP well north of .300. Last season, Ricky Nolasco led all qualifying major leaguers with a .331 mark. Only five guys were above .320, and they weren’t bums: Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, Madison Bumgarner.
It’s quite possible and perhaps quite likely that Tim Lincecum circa 2008-2009 is gone forever. Those two Cy Young Awards are probably the only two that Lincecum will ever win. But it’s too soon to say he’ll not pitch in 2012 roughly as well as he pitched in 2011. And he was pretty well in 2011.
And yes, all generalizations are false, including this one.
Posted: May 10, 2012 at 06:56 PM | 19 comment(s)
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