Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, February 04, 2013
I’m not ashamed. It’s the computer age. Nerds are in. They’re still in, right? So I’m watching MLB Network’s “Top 10 Right Now”, hosted by Brian Kenny and focusing on catchers, when Bill James shows up with his Top 10 list ... Kenny: “Bit of a surprise here, Bill. You throw this right out at us: Ryan Hanigan of the Cincinnati Reds. Why Hanigan?”
James: “With Ben Zobrist, those two are the most underrated players in baseball. I mean, Hanigan’s on-base percentage is not only good, it’s very, very good. He’s hit .260, .270 or better every year of his career. He walks a lot. He throws extremely well. The Cincinnati Reds’ ERA with Hanigan catching last year was 3.04; when he wasn’t catching, it was up around 3.8. Maybe Ben Zobrist is the most underrated player in baseball, but Ryan Hanigan may be the most underrated player in baseball.”
It’s hard for me to believe that a part-time player is the second-most underrated player in the game, unless you can make the case that management’s holding him down; that he’d be an All-Star if the Reds would just play him as often as he deserves. In the meantime, though, I think I’ll stick with Alex Gordon, who somehow ranks fifth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement (Wins+) over the last two seasons. Even if the method is generous—and I will note that Baseball-Reference.com’s Wins+ has him fifth, too—dropping Gordon to 10th or 15th or 20th would still have him much higher than almost everybody in the baseball world would guess. So I’m going to go with this ranking:
1. Alex Gordon
2. Ben Zobrist
3. Austin Jackson
4. Erick Aybar
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1. Austin Posted: February 05, 2013 at 01:05 AM (#4362851)JAMES: He's incredibly underrated.
He's so underrated, even his supporters can't spell his name right!
No matter how you spell it, I sure don't know who he is. If you asked me ten minutes ago who Ryan Hanigan was, I'd have said the bartender at O'Leary's, which would by definition lead me to underrate him as a major-league baseball player.
Man, Mark McGuire and Ryan Sandberg must be the most underrated players in history.
Yaz too.
Over time, nearly all right-handed batters regress toward the same platoon ratio. As such, Hanigan's one-year L/R splits probably aren't all that meaningful.
bill embarrassed himself with this remark because it demonsrates a complete lack of contextual awareness
tehre isn't an nl central fan who doesn't understand why hanigan doesn't play more. he has no pop and he can't handle a good fastball without being ready for it. that he has succeeded enough to be 32 years old and earning a major league salary is testimony to his intelligence
wow, i am old but bill is looking more daft than me
I didn't know AJ Ellis was that good.
Do we have a Primate inadvertently acknowledging that the most underrated player in baseball is....Jeff Francor...Francouer...Franceour...ah #### it, you know who I mean!
So he likely sucks. It's unlikely that out of the two splits it is going to be the vs RH pitchers that he regresses in. In all likelihood the more at bats he gets against lefties the more likely that number is going to come down.
This is really an excellent piece.
Seconded. Great interview and Hanigan seems like a great student of the game.
Don't forget Cal Ripkin, Jr.
Harveys has it correct. Looking at Hanigan's splits on Baseball Reference, his OPS is ~100 points higher vs bad teams than it is vs good teams. The only reason he got as much time as he did a year ago is because Devin Mesoraco struggled to make adjustments to the majors - which he's done at virtually every level so far. Mesoraco's going to hit eventually, and when he does Hanigan's going back to the backup role.
This is just James looking at a stat line, as Harveys said, and failing to understand the components of it.
-- MWE
Well, that is a shocker.
Both should move, though the numbers vs. LH will probably move more.
I guess Billy Butler's underrated then, too.
Assuming that he puts up the same overall numbers in the coming year, he's likely to deliver a better performance vs. RHP than he did last year. It's not "improvement", as such, in that there's no skill component involved.
Looks the rest of baseball has about a 45 point split.
Man, Joey Votto must be a vastly overrated hitter.
It's still Joe Rudi.
The obvious solution:
Make him a Cub, so we can see once and for all if he's really underrated or he actually sucks.
In many circles, this is known the 'Jeff Blauser litmus test'.... The test was also able to successfully determine that Ismael Valdez did indeed, suck.
Don't forget Sammy Sosser
"Improve" no, regress towards the mean maybe. But if his vs. RHP numbers suck and his vs LHP numbers rock then there's a reasonable chance his RHP numbers understate his true talent and his LHP numbers overstate it. Assuming he has more PA vs RHP, there will be less noise in those numbers so we expect less movement in those numbers than we do in the LHP numbers. But, sure, it's always possible that his RHP numbers perfectly reflect (or even overstate) his true talent but then that just means his LHP numbers are an even bigger outlier. Then of course you have deterioration due to age.
But, when in doubt, move the low split up and the high split down and recalculate the overall based on a L/R split.
As to Hanigan -- without question a pretty awesome backup C. Even if you justifiably ignore the IBB, he's still walks once ever 10 PA while hitting 275. The average NL C hit 252 and unintentionally walked a little less than once per 11 PA. His ISO is a lot lower than the average Cs though. But all told you've picking up 30 points of OBP for about 40 points of SLG, a good trade. He's more valuable offensively (given his L/R split) than the average C. Assuming he's average or better defensively, that's awesome for a backup.
Could he maintain if he starts is the quesetion. HW, MWE and others give us good reason to doubt that considering he'd face a lot more RHP and maybe more good pitchers. Still, I'm more willing to believe the perennial backup C with the career 370 OBP and 96 OPS+ is the most underrated than I am willing to believe that the one with the career 68 OPS+ is secretly worth 5 wins a year. But maybe that's just me.
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