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Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Nick Cafardo: Red Sox manager Alex Cora went against analytics in Game 3 — and the result was spectacular

Alex Cora managed it. It’s that simple.

He saw that what he had drawn up wasn’t working. As much as he loved and believed in the lineups in the first two games, he had left two of the hotter hitters of the past couple of weeks on the bench. So even though Brock Holt and Rafael Devers had horrific numbers against Luis Severino, he put them in the lineup anyway.

This was one of those nonanalytic moments. Cora simply had a feeling, a Joe Morgan hunch, that the two lefthanded hitters would do something significant. And he was right. Man, was he right. As in 16-1 right and a 2-1 lead in the series with the possibility the Red Sox could win the clincher Tuesday.

 

Jim Furtado Posted: October 09, 2018 at 01:43 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: analytics, red soxs

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 09, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5763246)
Now that we're entrenched in the age of anti-intellectualism, it's surprising there's not been MORE backlash against those fancy analytics.
   2. dlf Posted: October 09, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5763267)
What does the phrase \"#### to a tree" mean, Bill? I would think that feces would be pretty good fertilizer, something which would help the poor oak grow tall, strong and have plenty of acorns in the Fall.
   3. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5763268)
Is Boegarts always that bad at SS?
   4. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 09, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5763283)
What does the phrase \"#### to a tree" mean, Bill? I would think that feces would be pretty good fertilizer, something which would help the poor oak grow tall, strong and have plenty of acorns in the Fall.


It's a quote from Jefferson Airplane's "Eskimo Blue Day".
   5. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 09, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5763289)
I would think that feces would be pretty good fertilizer, something which would help the poor oak grow tall, strong and have plenty of acorns in the Fall.
That's exactly what I said to the park district, but no, they banned me anyway.
   6. Itchy Row Posted: October 09, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5763298)
That's exactly what I said to the park district, but no, they banned me anyway.
And Tree Rollins still won't drop that restraining order.
   7. Rally Posted: October 09, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5763338)
Starting two lefty hitters against a right handed pitcher. Who would have ever thought that could work?
   8. Answer Guy. Posted: October 09, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5763341)
Starting two lefty hitters against a right handed pitcher. Who would have ever thought that could work?


Yeah, how is that anti-analytics exactly? Assuming a pitcher that doesn't have an unusual platoon split, I'd think that'd be better information than their history vs. Severino, since that's going to be Small Sample Size Theater most of the time.
   9. Absurd Joey Blotto Posted: October 09, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5763343)
Is Boegarts always that bad at SS?


He's not a particularly good defensive shortstop but last night was weird. He seemed out of sorts. Normally he seems to have a pretty good sense of the speed of the game and last night he just looked lost in the field. There's more than a bit of Jeter to him (except he's got range to his left). Given what he can do with the bat it's a reasonable trade off for a lesser glove. I will say as a Sox fan he doesn't feel like a guy who is -1.0 WAR defensively. Below average sure, but "bad" wouldn't be how I'd describe him either.
   10. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 09, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5763357)
Holt had weak Monday numbers, YET CORA PLAYED HIM ANYWAYS!!!

   11. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 09, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5763359)
Yeah, how is that anti-analytics exactly?
Because it worked, and Analytics Are Bad!! QED.
   12. weiss-man Posted: October 09, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5763385)
Holt and Devers benched today against the lefty Sabathia. Looks like your basic platoon baseball.
   13. jmurph Posted: October 09, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5763404)
Holt and Devers benched today against the lefty Sabathia. Looks like your basic platoon baseball.

Hmmm, I'll wait for the results before I decide which was the anti-analytics side.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: October 09, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5763409)
A Joe Morgan the one-time Bos manager hunch or Joe Morgan the player/broadcaster/never managed a game in his life hunch?
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: October 09, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5763414)
A Joe Morgan the one-time Bos manager
30 years ago today his Morgan Magic team played it's last game of the season - getting knocked out by Dave Stewart and the A's. The dad of current Yankees catcher/reliever Austin Romine was there but didn't get into the game.
   16. Textbook Editor Posted: October 09, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5763431)
Sitting Holt and Devers is ridiculous. Nunez and Kinsler have been empty suits for a month. Cora is getting too cute and it’ll cost him. ARGH
   17. dlf Posted: October 09, 2018 at 06:32 PM (#5763491)
30 years ago today his Morgan Magic team played it's last game of the season - getting knocked out by Dave Stewart and the A's. The dad of current Yankees catcher/reliever Austin Romine was there but didn't get into the game.


I was trying to find some clever way to say that current Yankee manager Aaron Boone is the son of a guy who Morgan's first team knocked out of the playoffs in a miraculous fashion in '86, but the stubborn fact that it was Johnny Mac who (mis)managed the Red Sox that year rather than Walpole's own kept getting in the way. Facts? Who needs 'em?!?
   18. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 09, 2018 at 07:01 PM (#5763500)
Sitting Holt and Devers is ridiculous


Agree. Holt is just swinging the bat well right now and Devers can really mash when he runs into one. With Nunez or Kinsler you just never get the feeling like their going to succeed with the wood.
   19. Leroy Kincaid Posted: October 09, 2018 at 09:16 PM (#5763592)
How many decades has it been since head-to-head match-ups were considered "analytics"?
   20. TR_Sullivan Posted: October 09, 2018 at 09:16 PM (#5763593)
Wasn't Earl Weaver completely devoted to batter vs. pitcher?
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 09, 2018 at 11:53 PM (#5763809)
LaRussa too, I think?
   22. Chip Posted: October 10, 2018 at 01:05 AM (#5763823)
He's not a particularly good defensive shortstop but last night was weird. He seemed out of sorts. Normally he seems to have a pretty good sense of the speed of the game and last night he just looked lost in the field. There's more than a bit of Jeter to him (except he's got range to his left). Given what he can do with the bat itHe's not a particularly good defensive shortstop but last night was weird. He seemed out of sorts. Normally he seems to have a pretty good sense of the speed of the game and last night he just looked lost in the field. There's more than a bit of Jeter to him (except he's got range to his left). Given what he can do with the bat it's a reasonable trade off for a lesser glove. I will say as a Sox fan he doesn't feel like a guy who is -1.0 WAR defensively. Below average sure, but "bad" wouldn't be how I'd describe him either.


My guess was that the mist throughout the game had a lot to do with the tentativeness in the field, and not just by Bogaerts. I mean, you had Yankee outfielders changing their spikes as soon as they got out out there at real speed in the first inning and realized how slick it was.
   23. Shock Posted: October 10, 2018 at 03:15 AM (#5763828)
Wasn't Earl Weaver completely devoted to batter vs. pitcher?


Sure. Forty years ago.

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