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Thursday, October 18, 2012

Nightengale: A-Rod likely a Bronx goner

What will this mean for his fledgling relationship with Kyna Treacy?

Take a good, long hard look at him.

This will be the last time you’ll ever see Alex Rodriguez in a New York Yankees uniform.

We might have already seen him play his last game for the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees, desperate for offense, and set to play in an elimination game Wednesday night, benched their greatest and most expensive star for the second consecutive game.

Though Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers was postponed by rain, the Yankees already tipped their hand and had him on the bench, leaving A-Rod humiliated.

The Yankees are making it loud and clear they want Rodriguez out as quickly as possible.

Rodriguez, his pride and ego damaged beyond repair, is now telling close friends that he won’t stand in the way….

He will welcome a trade, the person says, but it must to be to another big-market club. Hint: He won’t be going to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The most likely choices would be the Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 18, 2012 at 01:36 PM | 117 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: alex rodriguez, angels, bad contracts, dodgers, marlins, trades, white sox, yankees

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   101. zonk Posted: October 19, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4276571)
Don't forget the Big Unit back to Arizona deal... it's not like the Yankees got a haul, but the only thing they really had to eat was Luis Vizcaino.



Ewwww.


Luis Vizcaino is harmless, cheap junk food... no nutritional value, modest, fleeting sugar rush, but ultimately, he'll just rot your teeth and give you diabetes.
   102. LargeBill Posted: October 19, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4276578)
Not. Gonna. Happen. Forget the no-trade clause, the amount of money and uncertainty of his ability to bounce back make it a near impossibility to trade him. The way his production has declined no team will take him off the Yankees hands unless the Yankees pay upwards of 90% of the contract. However, with the (admittedly slight) possibility that with a full over season to rehab he could bounce back to above average production the Yankees can't pay that much of his salary to see him produce for another team. This sort of mess is what many predicted when the Yankees gave him that many years and dollars - obviously the years were a bigger concern than the dollars. You can dump a big contract mistake when there is a year or so left but not when there is four or five years at big bucks.

Separately, expect several articles explaining how A-Rod's situation impacts team's internal discussions about how long a contract to offer Josh Hamilton. No team in their right mind can offer Hamilton what his production might warrant.
   103. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4276587)
I was under the impression that he had a no-trade contract and $122M guaranteed due, and that he explained to the press after the game that he would not permit the trade clause to be used, and that he expected big things in NY in 2013.


He has "no-trade protection" per Cots, which I presume is a full no-trade clause.

Just to clarify: he didn't tell the press after the game that he "would not permit" the no-trade clause to be used; rather, he told them that he simply wasn't thinking about that at all and expects to be in NY and play well and if he plays well then they can't bench him.

   104. JJ1986 Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4276589)
A-Rod is 10-5. He doesn't have to have a no-trade clause.
   105. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4276592)
Just to set the starting point, below are the major clauses in the ARod contract, per Cots. Note that (a) he has "no-trade protection" (contrary to what my doorman insisted on this morning, that "the Yankees don't give no-trades"), and (b) the annual salaries for 2013-2017 are still huge ($23 mil average), but they're much lower than the $30 mil he averaged from 2008-2012.

Though there is also $6 million each for breaking each of five home run milestones - so another possible $30 million - but if he's doing that -- averaging over 20+ home runs a year - then he might be within range of his salary, or at least not a complete albatross.

Despite all the wind being passed about how the Yanks would have to eat $80 or $90 of the contract, he's worth much more than people are giving him credit for. He's declined but he's still been a useful player, and his defense has been fine; the idea that he is done is an absurd Yankee Creation. Moreover, the injury this year was the result of being hit by a pitch, so it's not like it was th result of a chronic thing.

The Yanks would be better off with the contract than eating $80 or $90 million for sure. The notion is ludicrous.

Here are the major portions of the contract:

* 10 years/$275M (2008-17)

* $10M signing bonus...

* 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

* $30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)

* no-trade protection
   106. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4276599)
b) but the Yanks are convinced ARod is toast and figure they are eating $114 M either way


They may be convinced of that, but it is supported by utterly no evidence. Did I miss where ARod posted a 90 OPS+, 1 WAR season? Or are they getting him confused with Jeter? Because Jeter got a $50+ million contract off of that season, which also happened to be his age-36 season.

Jeter also hit .250 in the playoffs that year, with a .286 OBP and 4 extra base hits in two rounds.

   107. zonk Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4276604)
Regarding the milestone bonuses -- and at this point, does anyone think he's got any decent shot at anything beyond the Mays/660? -- Can the Yankees agree to cover those if they're reached, or, does the acquiring team essentially have to take the risk/just work into the base salary the Yankees cover?

I presume the latter -- but 6 million ain't pocket change. I suppose - if he gets the 714 or beyond - then the acquiring team actually got a rejuvenated A-Rod and would probably be more than to pay the bonus.

Figuring in that he'll get to 660 -- this means A-Rod is pretty much guaranteed 120 million more -- with another 24 million possible (but again, figure he hits any of those and you got yourself a damn good player and you probably pay it without regret).

   108. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4276609)
Joe Girardi chose not to use Rodriguez as much as he could have in the Tiger series. That's not disputable.

But he could have been watching the ABs. He could have information that we don't share out here.


I for one have grown tired of the constant notion that managers are basing these decisions on inside information. They're not. They may have more information than we do, but that doesn't mean that the extra information is useful. Managers base these decisions on stats - sometimes a very small sample of stats (such as Ibanez's home runs), but stats nonetheless. If ARod were 10-20 with 8 bloops, would Girardi have sat him down because Girardi didn't see that ARod was driving the ball or having good at bats? No, he would not have. So let's stop pretending that Girardi has added information _that is useful_ or that he's basing his decisions on it.

   109. caprules Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4276613)
Did I miss where ARod posted a 90 OPS+, 1 WAR season? Or are they getting him confused with Jeter?


Jeter didn't have that season. His 90 OPS+ was 1.6 WAR, which isn't really all that different from the 2 WAR that ARod produced this year.

Moreover, the injury this year was the result of being hit by a pitch, so it's not like it was th result of a chronic thing.


ARod hasn't been a model for staying in the lineup for about 5 years. He used to be a guy that would play over 150, and often give full seasons, but the last time he played over 150 games was 2007.

I agree that just dumping him isn't a solution. But if they can work one of their trades where they don't pay the freight, it would be worth exploring for the long haul.
   110. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4276615)
Regarding the milestone bonuses -- and at this point, does anyone think he's got any decent shot at anything beyond the Mays/660? --


115 home runs over 5 years? A decent shot? Sure.

You think he doesn't have a decent shot at another 67 home runs, for 715? Based on what? He has hit 64 home runs over the last three years, despite missing 25% of the games. Now - obviously missing games is a huge factor here, but he's averaged 21 home runs per season for each of the past three, and, again, this year it wasn't the hip that prevented him from getting on the field - it was a fluke HBP.

He is still averaging 28 home runs per full season, 25 or so per 150 game-seasons.


   111. Topher Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4276616)
Because Jeter got a $50+ million contract off of that season, which also happened to be his age-36 season.


I don't disagree with your general point but this seems to be an odd example. Wasn't there a consensus that Jeter wasn't getting anything close to 51M were it not for the Yankees bidding against themselves? That was a weird contract where neither party could envision Jeter not wearing pinstripes.

I thought Walt Davis' comparison to Aramis Ramirez was probably the closest thing we have to where Rodriguez is right now.

[edit] And I would argue that Rodriguez > Ramirez. I just don't think Jeter is a good comparision.
   112. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4276625)
The other problem with trading him: He's not going to go quietly. He will demand that the Yankees sweeten the pot for him, given his no-trade. As well he should. So as far as the Yankees are concerned that contract might as well be $114 base + 30 milestones + X, where X is the number ARod will ask for in order to go, which is probably around $30 million.

He is really not going anywhere unless the Yankees are just blazingly stupid... which, admittedly, (a) they've shown that they are given the way they handled this postseason, and (b) I was wrong about the Dodgers not being that stupid and they were, so, well, yeah, maybe he's going somewhere after all.

The Yankees' strategy, though, has been bizarre:

"Hey, we have a player we owe $114+ million to who we don't think can hit RHP anymore or hit better than Brett Gardner who hadn't played since April, or hit better than Eduardo Nunez, Ichiro Suzuki, or Raul Ibanez against LHP. And we don't think he gave us a better option at 3B than an 0-14 oft-injured player who just had his first productive season in half a decade. And we don't think he belongs in the starting lineup anymore, certainly not in the biggest games of our season.... Want him?"
   113. zonk Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4276628)
115 home runs over 5 years? A decent shot? Sure.

You think he doesn't have a decent shot at another 67 home runs, for 715? Based on what? He has hit 64 home runs over the last three years, despite missing 25% of the games. Now - obviously missing games is a huge factor here, but he's averaged 21 home runs per season for each of the past three, and, again, this year it wasn't the hip that prevented him from getting on the field - it was a fluke HBP.


Define decent, I guess...

I think it's less than 50/50... I'm not sure how much less
   114. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4276633)
I wouldn't be surprised if getting rid of A-Rod turns out to be a classic case of unloading a guy a year too early. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he bounces back a bit next year (not that he was terrible this year) then injury and performance make him a real sinkhole in years 2-5.
   115. SoSH U at work Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4276636)
The other problem with trading him: He's not going to go quietly. He will demand that the Yankees sweeten the pot for him, given his no-trade.


He was perfectly willing to go quietly at his last stop. Hell, he was willing to do his own pot-sweetening to get out of Texas, so I don't think it's a given that he'll make it difficult.

If the Yanks keep Girardi, then he might well be willing to do just about anything to get out of town (I can't imagine many superstars would want to continue to play for a skipper after the treatment he got in this year's postseason). He still may be difficult to move, but it's not difficult to picture a scenario where Alex and his no-trade protection are no kind of stumbling block to a deal.
   116. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4276641)
He was perfectly willing to go quietly at his last stop. Hell, he was willing to do his own pot-sweetening to get out of Texas, so I don't think it's a given that he'll make it difficult.


That's a good point.
   117. The Good Face Posted: October 19, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4276659)
He was perfectly willing to go quietly at his last stop. Hell, he was willing to do his own pot-sweetening to get out of Texas, so I don't think it's a given that he'll make it difficult.


That's a good point.


He was champing at the bit to escape from Texas though. There's no evidence that he wants out of NY, and a fair bit of evidence that he prefers to stay.

Yeah, he was scapegoated the past couple of weeks, but judging from his recent comments, he seems perfectly aware that his poor performance played a big role.
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