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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, October 18, 2012Nightengale: A-Rod likely a Bronx gonerWhat will this mean for his fledgling relationship with Kyna Treacy?
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 18, 2012 at 01:36 PM | 117 comment(s)
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Tags: alex rodriguez, angels, bad contracts, dodgers, marlins, trades, white sox, yankees |
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Luis Vizcaino is harmless, cheap junk food... no nutritional value, modest, fleeting sugar rush, but ultimately, he'll just rot your teeth and give you diabetes.
Separately, expect several articles explaining how A-Rod's situation impacts team's internal discussions about how long a contract to offer Josh Hamilton. No team in their right mind can offer Hamilton what his production might warrant.
He has "no-trade protection" per Cots, which I presume is a full no-trade clause.
Just to clarify: he didn't tell the press after the game that he "would not permit" the no-trade clause to be used; rather, he told them that he simply wasn't thinking about that at all and expects to be in NY and play well and if he plays well then they can't bench him.
Though there is also $6 million each for breaking each of five home run milestones - so another possible $30 million - but if he's doing that -- averaging over 20+ home runs a year - then he might be within range of his salary, or at least not a complete albatross.
Despite all the wind being passed about how the Yanks would have to eat $80 or $90 of the contract, he's worth much more than people are giving him credit for. He's declined but he's still been a useful player, and his defense has been fine; the idea that he is done is an absurd Yankee Creation. Moreover, the injury this year was the result of being hit by a pitch, so it's not like it was th result of a chronic thing.
The Yanks would be better off with the contract than eating $80 or $90 million for sure. The notion is ludicrous.
Here are the major portions of the contract:
* 10 years/$275M (2008-17)
* $10M signing bonus...
* 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
* $30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)
* no-trade protection
They may be convinced of that, but it is supported by utterly no evidence. Did I miss where ARod posted a 90 OPS+, 1 WAR season? Or are they getting him confused with Jeter? Because Jeter got a $50+ million contract off of that season, which also happened to be his age-36 season.
Jeter also hit .250 in the playoffs that year, with a .286 OBP and 4 extra base hits in two rounds.
I presume the latter -- but 6 million ain't pocket change. I suppose - if he gets the 714 or beyond - then the acquiring team actually got a rejuvenated A-Rod and would probably be more than to pay the bonus.
Figuring in that he'll get to 660 -- this means A-Rod is pretty much guaranteed 120 million more -- with another 24 million possible (but again, figure he hits any of those and you got yourself a damn good player and you probably pay it without regret).
I for one have grown tired of the constant notion that managers are basing these decisions on inside information. They're not. They may have more information than we do, but that doesn't mean that the extra information is useful. Managers base these decisions on stats - sometimes a very small sample of stats (such as Ibanez's home runs), but stats nonetheless. If ARod were 10-20 with 8 bloops, would Girardi have sat him down because Girardi didn't see that ARod was driving the ball or having good at bats? No, he would not have. So let's stop pretending that Girardi has added information _that is useful_ or that he's basing his decisions on it.
Jeter didn't have that season. His 90 OPS+ was 1.6 WAR, which isn't really all that different from the 2 WAR that ARod produced this year.
ARod hasn't been a model for staying in the lineup for about 5 years. He used to be a guy that would play over 150, and often give full seasons, but the last time he played over 150 games was 2007.
I agree that just dumping him isn't a solution. But if they can work one of their trades where they don't pay the freight, it would be worth exploring for the long haul.
115 home runs over 5 years? A decent shot? Sure.
You think he doesn't have a decent shot at another 67 home runs, for 715? Based on what? He has hit 64 home runs over the last three years, despite missing 25% of the games. Now - obviously missing games is a huge factor here, but he's averaged 21 home runs per season for each of the past three, and, again, this year it wasn't the hip that prevented him from getting on the field - it was a fluke HBP.
He is still averaging 28 home runs per full season, 25 or so per 150 game-seasons.
I don't disagree with your general point but this seems to be an odd example. Wasn't there a consensus that Jeter wasn't getting anything close to 51M were it not for the Yankees bidding against themselves? That was a weird contract where neither party could envision Jeter not wearing pinstripes.
I thought Walt Davis' comparison to Aramis Ramirez was probably the closest thing we have to where Rodriguez is right now.
[edit] And I would argue that Rodriguez > Ramirez. I just don't think Jeter is a good comparision.
He is really not going anywhere unless the Yankees are just blazingly stupid... which, admittedly, (a) they've shown that they are given the way they handled this postseason, and (b) I was wrong about the Dodgers not being that stupid and they were, so, well, yeah, maybe he's going somewhere after all.
The Yankees' strategy, though, has been bizarre:
"Hey, we have a player we owe $114+ million to who we don't think can hit RHP anymore or hit better than Brett Gardner who hadn't played since April, or hit better than Eduardo Nunez, Ichiro Suzuki, or Raul Ibanez against LHP. And we don't think he gave us a better option at 3B than an 0-14 oft-injured player who just had his first productive season in half a decade. And we don't think he belongs in the starting lineup anymore, certainly not in the biggest games of our season.... Want him?"
Define decent, I guess...
I think it's less than 50/50... I'm not sure how much less
He was perfectly willing to go quietly at his last stop. Hell, he was willing to do his own pot-sweetening to get out of Texas, so I don't think it's a given that he'll make it difficult.
If the Yanks keep Girardi, then he might well be willing to do just about anything to get out of town (I can't imagine many superstars would want to continue to play for a skipper after the treatment he got in this year's postseason). He still may be difficult to move, but it's not difficult to picture a scenario where Alex and his no-trade protection are no kind of stumbling block to a deal.
That's a good point.
He was champing at the bit to escape from Texas though. There's no evidence that he wants out of NY, and a fair bit of evidence that he prefers to stay.
Yeah, he was scapegoated the past couple of weeks, but judging from his recent comments, he seems perfectly aware that his poor performance played a big role.
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