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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

NJIT math professor calls Detroit Tigers a favorite to win World Series

Bukiet List: “witness something truly majestic”

Since the Major League Baseball Division Series and League Championship Series have determined which teams will compete in the World Series, NJIT Math Professor Bruce Bukiet has again analyzed the probability of each team taking the title.

“The Detroit Tigers have a solid advantage over the San Francisco Giants. The Tigers, who surprisingly swept the New York Yankees in four straight games in the American League Championship Series to reach the World Series, have a 58 percent chance of beating the Giants in the best of seven series,” he said.

At the season’s start, Bukiet used his mathematical model to project the number of wins each team should earn. While Bukiet’s model picked only six of the ten post-season teams back in March (including the Tigers but not the Giants), he said that his performance was still comparable with many experts.

...This is Bukiet’s 12th year using his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day during the baseball season. His picks (posted on www.egrandslam.com) have led to positive results for 8 of the 12 years (counting 2012’s thus far positive performance). He has also used the model to predict how teams should perform during a baseball season and these results have compared favorably with experts over the years. In addition, the method enables one to rank player performance during the season in terms of the influence on the number of wins a given player would have added (or taken away) from an average team. This allows the computation of who really should win the Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards. Bukiet will publish those results for 2012 in the coming week.

Repoz Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:15 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, sabermetrics

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   1. dr. scott Posted: October 23, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4280998)
So does this guy model defense as well? Did not see any specific mentions of that.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4281013)
I will take a coin toss over any actual "scientific" predictions.
   3. tshipman Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4281017)
Does this guy get any better results than a Q&D pythag? I am thinking probably not.
   4. Moe Greene Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4281030)
Using a binomial distribution, the probability that someone would end up ahead in 8+ out of 12 years is ~19%.

I guess that's something, but it's certainly not convincing.
   5. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4281039)
NJIT math professor calls Detroit Tigers a favorite to win World Series

The other favorite being the Giants.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4281046)
That's about the same odds Vegas gives them, meaning they probably match the consensus view pretty well.
   7. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4281055)
This is Dr. NJIT (I'm an INTP myself) vs. the RLYW 2012 projection blowout. RLYW had the WC teams as Atlanta, St Louis, LAA, and Boston. NJIT had Cincy, Atlanta, LAA, and Boston. RLYW did much better on the Nats: 84-78 vs. 75-87. Pretty similar, generally.

RLYW NJIT
 NYA NYA
 BOS BOS
 TAM TB
 TOR TOR
 BAL BAL
 
 DET DET
 CLE CHW
 CHA CLE
 KCR KCR
 MIN MIN
 
 TEX TEX
 LAA LAA
 OAK SEA
 SEA OAK
 
 PHI PHI
 ATL ATL
 WAS MIA
 MIA WAS
 NYN NYN
 
 CIN STL
 STL CIN
 MIL MIL
 PIT CHN
 CHN PIT
 HOU HOU
 
 SFG ARI
 ARI SFG
 COL LAD
 SDP COL
 LAN SDP 
   8. Moe Greene Posted: October 23, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4281068)
What kind of reliable projection system puts the Red Sox in 2nd place!!! :)
   9. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 23, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4281073)
See, this is the sort of thing that confuses and angers John Smoltz.
   10. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 23, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4281089)
Thats better than Donald Trump who had the St.Louis Browns winning it all this year.
   11. zenbitz Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4281107)
I had to click through links and scroll way down but he gave the Cards a 68% chance of beating the Giants before game 1 of the NLCS. Not to be results oriented, but 68% is a HUGE edge especially against a team with HFA.

(By comparison, he had the Tigers at 53:47 over the Yankees before the ALCS)
   12. winnipegwhip Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4281167)
Better than Joe Biden who had the Kansas City Monarchs winning it all this year.
   13. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4281204)

I'm always amused when professors at places that make claims like "America's Most Wired Public University" have websites that look like they were designed on Geocities in 1996.
   14. Dan Evensen Posted: October 24, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4281267)
I will take a coin toss over any actual "scientific" predictions.

This. Win totals at the end of the season are one thing, but when somebody gives a team a 58% chance of winning a 7 game series, I'm calling bullcrap. Especially if that 58% chance is a "solid advantage."
   15. tshipman Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4281272)
I'm always amused when professors at places that make claims like "America's Most Wired Public University" have websites that look like they were designed on Geocities in 1996.


As ranked by Yahoo! Internet life!

So you know it's the best rankings of 1999!
   16. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:01 AM (#4281303)
Thats better than Donald Trump who had the St.Louis Browns winning it all this year.


Hey, at least they took the ALDS to five games,
   17. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:14 AM (#4281308)
We're doomed.
   18. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4281317)
If any prediction machine spits out a number that's nowhere near the Vegas number, it's full of crap.

This one is close so seems fair, but of course what's the point of it if all it does is give you a number close to the Vegas number? I suppose "fun" is a fair answer.

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