How in the world are the Philles 3 games back?

Would be kind of awesome if 6 teams tied for the 6th seed. Talk about a perfect argument against the 6th seed.

How in the world are the Philles 3 games back?

I predict that they aren't going to lose again this season, and Ryan Howard is going to win the NL MVP, with a .700ish OPS

Phillies have four coming up with the Astros, then three with the Mets. They could pull this off.

Nobody wants to talk about the Cubs' clutch 5-1 win over the Astros?

Dbacks win, only 4 back themselves now (wtf!). Dodgers just can't make a move.

remaining:
STL (9 home, 10 away)
4 @ Dodgers
3 vs. Astros
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Astros
3 vs. Nationals
3 vs. Reds

LAD (10 home, 9 away)
4 vs. Cardinals
3 @ Nationals
3 @ Reds
3 @ Padres
3 vs. Rockies
3 vs. Padres

PIT (9 home, 11 away)
4 @ Cubs
3 vs. Brewers
3 @ Astros
4 @ Mets
3 vs. Reds
3 vs. Braves

MIL (9 home, 10 away)
3 vs. Mets
3 @ Pirates
4 @ Nationals
3 @ Reds
3 vs. Astros
3 vs. Padres

PHI (6 home, 13 away)
4 @ Astros
3 @ Mets
3 vs. Braves
3 vs. Nationals
3 @ Marlins
3 @ Nationals

ARI (12 home, 7 away)
3 vs. Giants
3 vs. Padres
4 @ Rockies
3 @ Giants
3 vs. Cubs
3 vs. Rockies

STL (9 home, 10 away)
4 @ Dodgers

I'm not sure how, but both teams will manage to lose all 4 of these games.

Would be kind of awesome if 6 teams tied for the 6th seed. Talk about a perfect argument against the 6th seed.

Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?

The Dodgers last three games are at home against the Giants, not the Padres. Yep, they will play the three divisional champs down the stretch.

Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?

Why would they?

LAD (10 home, 9 away)
3 @ Nationals

This feels weird to me. Don't the east-west games usually get played before September rolls around?

Sorry to see the Pirates fade so quickly, I was really pulling for them to be in the post-season. At least their local fans got to see some hopeful/exciting ball games in their beautiful ballpark (that I still have yet to visit, dammit!)

boteman

they should. but the brewers finish the season with the padres and this is not the first time san diego gets sent to milwaukee in the last few weeks of the season. i doubt either team enjoys as i know milwaukee would prefer going against division foes.

so the brewers planned rotation for the season was greinke, marcum, gallardo, wolf and narveson

the ending rotation will be gallardo, estrada, fiers, marcum and peralta with a meaningful interlude by mark rogers.

the second version has been more effective and consistent than the first. namely because wolf is gone as he was awful

the brewers will likely not make the playoffs and that will be the result of being too slow to react. leaving wolf in the rotation when he clearly had nothing to offer. leaving the bullpen untouched as game after game imploded late. this is not a case of not having options to sticking with plan a until finding a plan b. this was not being willing to explore plan b.

My prediction of the Mets finishing within three games of the Phils seriously looked like a lock. ####### ############# worthless ####### #######.

Cardinals have to stop bunting with zero outs, a runner in scoring position and one of their better hitters at bat. Maybe they'd stop losing games by one run.

A few days ago it was Matt Carpenter (.370 obp) bunting into a double play with two on and nobody out. Two nights ago, down by a run in the 8th and with the leadoff man on, it was Jon Jay (.391 obp) bunting through a down and in first pitch, foul bunting a second pitch, then striking out.

And last night, in the 9th down by a run and the leadoff batter on second, Molina (.370 obp) is bunting.

The Jay bunt is more defensible, as it moves a guy into scoring position, but the other two---the guy's already in scoring position, it takes one to tie, yes, but to win you're going to have score at least twice and you already have the makings of a big inning, and you've get REALLY GOOD HITTERS at the plate.

My prediction of the Mets finishing within three games of the Phils seriously looked like a lock.

You actually said that?? Dude, if you honestly believed that then you need to get your head examined as fast as possible, because something is seriously wrong with you.

salvo

the manager of the brewers has a team that leads the league in homers and runs scored and his love the bunt knows no bounds as the brewers lead the nl i think in sac bunts

thankfully he hates the intentional walk so i take some solace in that

Could be a bunch of 83-79 teams.

Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?


Why would they?

The OP referenced a tie for the 6th seed. But there is no 6th seed. The extra wild card is the 5th seed.

You actually said that?? Dude, if you honestly believed that then you need to get your head examined as fast as possible, because something is seriously wrong with you.

Joey, try not to be such a swinging turd all your life. The Phils and the Mets were separated by over three games for the first time last week. A prediction being right for over five out of six months is not exactly "seriously wrong".

And you better believe if they make up those four games (not seeming likely, but still just seven behind the Phils as of this writing) this thread is going to be in the sidebar for a month.

WEll, it was late and I meant 5th seed. Can't help it if football has started up again.

Cardinals have to stop bunting with zero outs, a runner in scoring position and one of their better hitters at bat. Maybe they'd stop losing games by one run.

This is probably because I'm a Cubs fan, but the move seemed especially stupid because Molina seems like the best bet in that Cardinals lineup to get the base hit with the man in scoring position.

attaboy lassus. don't be taking no guff from nobody

This is probably because I'm a Cubs fan, but the move seemed especially stupid because Molina seems like the best bet in that Cardinals lineup to get the base hit with the man in scoring position.

And another thing (bursting through the paper a la John Madden), even if Molina doesn't get the hit, there's an excellent chance that he'll put the ball in play and a fair chance it will be in a way that moves the runner.

NL wild card standings on 8/23 (i.e., three weeks ago):


ATL 71 54 +2.5
STL 68 56 --
PIT 67 57 1
LA 67 58 1.5
ARI 64 61 4.5
PHI 58 67 10.5
MIL 57 66 10.5
NYM 57 68 11.5
MIA 57 69 12

various brewers since the all star break

aramis .332/.385/.609
hart .316/.377/.539
braun .315/.377/.584
weeks .273/.357/.491

Lassus's prediction is one of those things that on paper might have looked dodgy, since theoretically the Phils have a much better team than the Mets. But with the Mets' early overperformance and the Phils' collapse plus spate of injuries, it wasn't at all crazy in practice. (And if you think it is, then: explain the Orioles.)

Really it's only the massive implosion of the Mets in the last month & a half combined with the magical return to competence of the Phils' rotation (because it sure isn't Ryan Howard who's powering that team along) that has created the gap.

I won't lie: the Phils look pretty scary right now. They swept us a week or so ago, and I'm beginning to feel like our upcoming games against them are going to be a bigger challenge than the ones we have against the Braves.

You know, the Padres are only 6.5 GB of the 2nd wild card slot. HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE??

EDIT: Did some cursory research and the answer is a 16-5 record over their past 21 games. Huh.

Seriously, people are complaining about this second WC slot? This is crazy exciting.

Seriously, people are complaining about this second WC slot? This is crazy exciting.

As long as you don't stop to think that they're playing for a one-game crap shoot to get into the series phase.

Joey, try not to be such a swinging turd all your life.

Good advice, which has basically no chance of being heeded, unfortunately.

Seriously, people are complaining about this second WC slot? This is crazy exciting.

Well, yeah. It's silly.

6 teams fighting for the right to get bounced in a one game playoff or swept in the divisional series is not my idea of a good time. It's chaos for the sake of chaos. Some people might enjoy that and to that I say enjoy the season. It isn't my cup of tea.

6 teams fighting for the right to get bounced in a one game playoff or swept in the divisional series

I keep forgetting that the new setup prevents any of the Wild Card teams from advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.

Looking at their schedule and how they are trending, I think the Phillies actually have a shot to get into this thing and make it interesting down to the last couple of days. The same could probably be said of Milwaukee of course, but I haven't been following them as much.

As long as we are talking about "seriously wrong" predictions, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East and the Brewers to be one of the WCs. I did have the Reds in the Central and the Giants in the West (as did many people).

I keep forgetting that the new setup prevents any of the Wild Card teams from advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.

It doesn't but the 5th seeded team looks to be pretty pathetic this year. I mean we can say that the playoffs are a crapshoot but that doesn't mean it is totally random.

Anyone got a link to the BTF preseason prediction thread?

Found it.

My picks:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels

AL WC: Texas
AL WC: Tampa

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants

NL WC: Arizona
NL WC: Atlanta

World Series: Giants vs Tigers

WS Winners: Tigers

Cubs lose 94 games.

Even with an expected regression, picking the Phillies to win the division before the season was certainly a very plausible choice.

But man, the number of absolutely laughable and ludicrous things Lassus has said about the Mets during the course of this season, especially early on when they were so clearly overachieving their talent level, you could fill a small book with them.

Advice not heeded, as predicted.

None of you picked the A's or O's for anything. What a bunch of dopes!

[34] Worse looking teams have won the World Series before (1987 Twins, anyone?). This shows why I don't like the second wild card. One of these teams is going to have a chance to win the World Series after a very mediocre regular season.

I think the Phillies actually have a shot to get into this thing

As a Cardinals fan, this seems to me an understatement. Given their four games coming up against the Astros, the only thing keeping the Phillies from moving into wild-card position in the next few days is that St. Louis or Los Angeles is finally going to win a little this weekend (#7 above aside).

i think i'm gonna hurl.

my nutbag prediction is in serious jeopardy.

But man, the number of absolutely laughable and ludicrous things Lassus has said about the Mets during the course of this season, especially early on when they were so clearly overachieving their talent level, you could fill a small book with them.

A NUMBER? More turdiness. I said once that we were coming for you, and at the time we were two games back. You waited an entire month after I scared you with that and you were like 10 games up to answer and puff out your chest and call me ridiculous. Such bravado!

I wonder if this makes Braun an MVP candidate or if it has already been decided that he is ineligible for having not played for a contender. They are actually scoring .35 RPG more than last year w/o Fielder.

Lassus is a fan of the Mets, as I'm a fan of the Phillies. If you can't get excited and optimistic ( or even overly optimistic) when your favorite team is playing well, then what is the value in following baseball ?........In support of Lassus, I'll root for the Mets the rest of the year (except 9-17,18 and 19).

Thanks! I'll be rooting for a meteor to destroy Philadelphia. You understand. Hee.

I thought the 2nd WC was dumb, but darned if it doesn't make sure the division leaders play out the string.

I thought the 2nd WC was dumb, but darned if it doesn't make sure the division leaders play out the string.

Obviously, it has plusses and minuses. SOSH, Andy, and other guys have done a good job pointing out the negatives. I like it compared to the previous system simply because it means you need to win the division to avoid the play-in game, and I think the play-in games will be fun.

As a Cardinals fan, this seems to me an understatement.

Maybe, but the Phillies have won seven straight. To really pressure the Cardinals/Dodgers, they will need to stay hot, push that to 14 out of 16 or so, probably not lose any to Houston, etc. That won't be easy--it's baseball.

As long as you don't stop to think that they're playing for a one-game crap shoot to get into the series phase.

Why shouldn't they have to? These are teams that, by definition, weren't good enough to win their divisions. They weren't champs, they were runners-up. Doesn't this new system, in fact, go a long way towards making RIGHT the complaint some people have had with the old WC system, that it unfairly allowed an "also-ran" team to complete on a perfectly even playing field with the best team in the league in a short series? Now they have to run the gamut of a 1-game playoff and burn their best starter, restoring a true advantage to the division champs.

burn their best starter

Considering how this appears like it's going to go down to the wire, and there's only a single day off before the wildcard game (assuming no sweet, sweet tiebreaker games), any of the non-Atlanta contenders are going to have limited flexibility in setting who starts the wildcard game.

Might be #2 starter vs. a #4 starter or something in the WC game, depending on already set rotations.

Doesn't this new system, in fact, go a long way towards making RIGHT the complaint some people have had with the old WC system, that it unfairly allowed an "also-ran" team to complete on a perfectly even playing field with the best team in the league in a short series?

Yes, it does.

Why shouldn't they have to?

I don't think anybody is saying that the 1-game WC is "unfair" to the #5 team; I'm not sure anybody is saying that it's unfair to the #4 team (although I think the Braves are a genuinely good team that are going to play a 1-gamer against a genuinely good team). What the poster was saying is that he can't get excited about seeing a bunch of mediocre teams battle for a chance at a 1-game playoff. The Phils or Brewers or D-Backs might pull off one of the "greatest" comebacks in history then be down 8-0 after 2 innings 2 days later. Sure, it's more exciting than Deal or No Deal but it's pretty much the same concept.

I can't blame him but then I'm a traditionalist, 2-division, no wild-card, no interleague play fogey who has never been able to get excited about mediocre playoff teams (unless they happen to be the Cubs) ... not that the 2-division set-up didn't let through the occasional mediocre playoff team.

There's an obvious need for wild card teams in football where you only play 16 games (not that the NFL hasn't gone overbaoard on wild cards). Maybe that need still exists in basketball and hockey although 82 games is probably enough to sort out who the best are. But if 162 games isn't enough to figure out who the best baseball teams are then what are they doing during the regular season?

There's already a ton of randomness in baseball and the wild card made it easier for that randomness to determine who gets to be champion. I just don't see any point (well, other than money) in making it easier to "luck" into a WS title.

But we've been having this discussion for 20 years now and it ain't going back the way it was.

yep, I wasn't commenting on the worthiness of the format.

I was saying that the excitement of the race for the second wild card is tempered by the reward.

I don't think anybody is saying that the 1-game WC is "unfair" to the #5 team; I'm not sure anybody is saying that it's unfair to the #4 team (although I think the Braves are a genuinely good team that are going to play a 1-gamer against a genuinely good team). What the poster was saying is that he can't get excited about seeing a bunch of mediocre teams battle for a chance at a 1-game playoff. The Phils or Brewers or D-Backs might pull off one of the "greatest" comebacks in history then be down 8-0 after 2 innings 2 days later. Sure, it's more exciting than Deal or No Deal but it's pretty much the same concept.

Obviously that's possible, but if the Phils make it--unlikely--they would not be an improbable WS winner with that staff and that momentum.

if i was manager and got into the one game playoff and had a good bullpen i would just toss a back end starter for a few innings and plow through the bullpen. given the day off between games there isn't a downside barring extra innings but then you can roll in starters as needed.

Not sure if this will matter in the race for the wild card(s), but Josh Beckett just got thrown out at first base by Beltran in right field. Scully says first time he's seen that in years, but is certain last time he saw it was in Pittsburgh, can't remember who was involved. Wonder how his memory is on this one? Can the play index help with this one? assuming 9-3.

mrams

courtesy of shock from a thread last september when frenchy did it to an a's rookie

Game, Inning, Outs, Event, RF
BRO195108271, 3, 0, 93, Carl Furillo
SLN195705302, 2, 0, 93, Wally Post
LAN196108150, 4, 1, 93, Frank Robinson
SFN196304211, 3, 0, 93, Lou Brock
MIN196407170, 5, 1, 93, Lou Clinton
CHN196509040, 5, 2, 93, Billy Williams
BAL196507270, 6, 1, 93.1-2, Curt Blefary
PHI196608211, 1, 1, 93.1-2, Al Luplow
CIN197006060, 6, 1, 9326(1)/FO, Pete Rose
MON197005070, 1, 1, 93, Rusty Staub
SLN197105180, 3, 0, 93, Jose Cardenal
OAK197606180, 6, 2, 93, Bernie Carbo
MON197907100, 4, 0, 93, Ellis Valentine
CHN198008062, 5, 0, 93, Mike Vail
PHI198008200, 3, 1, 936(1)/FO.3-H, Bake McBride
CIN198306300, 3, 0, 93, Jack Clark
SFN198307102, 9, 1, 93, Jack Clark
CHA198409090, 6, 1, 93, Harold Baines
PIT198507060, 7, 1, 93.1-1, Tony Gwynn
SFN198509010, 5, 1, 93(B), Joel Youngblood
PHI198609290, 1, 1, 93.3-H, Glenn Wilson
MON198706120, 2, 2, 93(B), Glenn Wilson
SLN199209150, 2, 2, 93/G34D, Alex Cole
SDN199207040, 1, 0, 93/G34D, Larry Walker
MON199209230, 6, 1, 93/G34D, Larry Walker
MIL199308241, 1, 1, 936(1)/FO/L9M.B-1, B.J. Surhoff
TOR199705050, 5, 2, 93/G34, Orlando Merced
PIT199805120, 7, 1, 93/G34D.1-2, Jose Guillen
HOU200007090, 2, 1, 93/G, Lance Berkman
FLO200008250, 6, 2, 93/G, Mark Kotsay
ATL200006070, 4, 2, 93/G, Brian Jordan
ATL200004230, 5, 0, 93/G, Brian Jordan
SLN200008050, 2, 0, 93/G, Brian Jordan
NYN200204170, 2, 2, 93/G34, B.J. Surhoff
ARI200209290, 2, 0, 93/G, Gabe Kapler
CIN200307290, 3, 2, 93/G, Rene Reyes
LAN200409110, 8, 1, 936(1)/FO/G.B-1, Milton Bradley
TBA200409220, 6, 1, 936(1)/FO/L.3-H(UR), Jose Cruz
HOU200707250, 5, 2, 93/G, Luke Scott
WAS200906060, 4, 0, 936(1)/FO/DP.BX2(3), Elijah Dukes
HOU201008090, 2, 2, 93/G, Hunter Pence
LAN201008070, 10, 0, 93/G.1-2, Mike Morse

and at the bottom of the thread he has a bunch of other outfielder to infield putout combos

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/francoeur_throws_batter_out_at_first_from_right_field

Thanks Harveys, I figured this ground has been covered here before.

I was saying that the excitement of the race for the second wild card is tempered by the reward.

For the 2nd wild card the reward is infinitely better than a year ago.

I'm not against the rule, but if wild card teams do as well in the playoffs after the rule as before, maybe it's worse. You are penalizing a team for not winning the division, but you are cancelling that out by rewarding an even worse team with a playoff spot.

courtesy of shock from a thread last september when frenchy did it to an a's rookie

Dumb question, but is the names at the end of each game, the outfielder who made the throw?

Unless it happened (9-3) last year, based on what Harveys posted, Scully's memory failed him, 2010, at Dodgers Stadium against the Nats. For shame Vin. The 2004, 9-3 at Dodgers Stadium was vs STL. Perhaps Vin's recalling some GOTW game he did. Or maybe not even a '9-3'

Dumb question, but is the names at the end of each game, the outfielder who made the throw?

It would have to be, unless the guys who hit into 9-3 plays all happened to be outfielders.

I'm not against the rule, but if wild card teams do as well in the playoffs after the rule as before, maybe it's worse. You are penalizing a team for not winning the division, but you are cancelling that out by rewarding an even worse team with a playoff spot.

Or giving a team that was slightly unluckier during the regular season a chance to be lucky in a one-game playoff.