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Thursday, September 27, 2012

NL playoff race: September 27, 2012

NL East

WAS 95-61 [15-10 in SEPT]
ATL 91-65 [17-7 in SEPT] (4 GB)

NL Wildcard

STL 84-72 [13-11 in SEPT]
LAD 81-75 [11-12 in SEPT] (3 GB)
MIL 80-76 [17-8 in SEPT] (4 GB)

The Chase for .500

PIT 76-80 [6-19 in SEPT]

MLB.com: Morse’s two homers help Gio notch 21st victory
MLB.com: Uggla helps sink ex-team as Braves win fifth straight
MLB.com: With six to play, Dodgers slice deficit to three
MLB.com: Reds’ two-out rally in ninth stuns Axford, Brewers

MLB.com: Snider makes unforgettable catch in loss vs. Mets

NTNgod Posted: September 27, 2012 at 11:26 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, brewers, cardinals, dodgers, nationals, pennant race, pirates

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 27, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4247785)
The Cubs now have to win the final two series of the season to avoid the dreaded century mark in the loss column.

And sorry, Bucs fans, I think we're looking at a cool two decades of losing.
   2. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4247806)
"Three, that's the magic number {three}. Yes it is, it's the magic number."

-De La Soul
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4247810)
Bryce Harper tied the Total Bases record (240) for an age-19 season tonight. He already has the age-19 record for extra-base hits. Pretty good for a guy who wasn't called up until April was almost over.
   4. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4247812)
Also, the Nationals 95th win ties the franchise record for wins in a regular season, with the '79 Expos.
   5. dr. scott Posted: September 28, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4247818)
How many 19 year olds have been called up before him?
   6. zachtoma Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4247831)
Dodgers are trying to finish off San Diego right now and bring themselves to 3 games back. Still hopeless, but... less hopeless? They could get hot?
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4247837)
How many 19 year olds have been called up before him?

In all of MLB history, quite a few, some even spent the entire season in the Majors. Here's the age-19 Total Base Top Ten:

Total Bases
Rank Player Year
1. Buddy Lewis 240 1936
2. Bryce Harper 235 2012
3. Mel Ott 228 1928
4. Tony Conigliaro 214 1964
5. Robin Yount 205 1975
6. George Davis 197 1890
7. Ken Griffey 191 1989
  Bob Kennedy 191 1940
9. Al Kaline 175 1954
10. Phil Cavarretta 172 1936
  Edgar Renteria 172 1996
   8. Walt Davis Posted: September 28, 2012 at 05:37 AM (#4247857)
Call-up date is kinda irrelevant. He is 5th in PA for a 19-year-old. Lewis is way ahead of him in PA, he had no power whatsoever (108 ISO). Ott's 228 TB came in just 500 PA, 435 AB compared to Harper's 573/512. Harper is a distant 3rd in SLG at that age (400+ PA -- Conigliaro,just 444 PA, and Ott). But he's just a smidgen behind Ott in ISO (well behind Conigliaro). He has pulled well ahead of Griffey in ISO.
   9. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4247906)
Want some good belly laughs? Go back and check out this thread here and read some of the comments that cardsfanboy was making about Harper.
   10. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4247915)
Both of the Phils' "old" out of nowhere "prospects" played in the Nats game last night.

Tyler Cloyd continued to look like Kyle Kendrick super-lite. He did pitch his 200th inning for the season last night, so the big hope for me is that he's tired at this point in the season. He looks like he knows what he's doing, but can't hardly get up to 88 MPH and has no out pitch that I can see. I'm guessing he's AAA fodder/6th/7th starter for a few years. He has a nice swing though and looks agile fielding his position.

Darin Ruf looks like a masher. He has shown pretty good discipline and the ball leaps off his bat. His laser shot over Harper's*** head last night was awesome. I haven't seen enough of him in LF, but at best he will be ponderous. Maybe he can be a Pat Burrell type in LF, who can't get to much but makes the right play when he finally tracks down the ball. He looks to be having a blast, which is always fun to see, even in a dreadful** season.

** compared to expectations.
*** I know he's a babe, but I don't see Harper as a career CF at this point. Doesn't seem to get good jumps and isn't THAT fast to make up the difference, say like Shane Victorino. He's got a long way to go though.
   11. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4247921)
Harper definitely has a propensity to misjudge balls coming off the bat at times. Earlier on in the season he was also making some very ill-advised throws at times, but he has gotten better about that. Given that he only has half a season under his belt at CF, I expect the reaction time to improve significantly next year. Yep, he's got a way to go before he can be considered a really good CF, but with his athleticism I think he can get there.

And I agree about Ruf; I was pretty impressed by what I saw. And if I were him I would put a Spinal Tappian umlaut over the letter "u", because it totally looks like it belongs there.
   12. Esoteric Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4247929)
Darin Ruf looked impressive. And 100% agreement with Joey B. about the umlaut -- Ruf needs to get on that over the offseason, quick.

As for Bryce Harper in centerfield, I think he will make it. He's had to learn the position on the fly in-season under immense pressure (remember when Harper was drafted as a catcher? LOL), and given all that he has done a lot more than just 'creditably' well. With time and experience he's going to be a formidable all-around CF: fast enough to get around, and a strong enough arm to keep runners intimidated. Most of his problems right now are with judgment calls: not getting good breaks on balls and making questionable throws. Those can be overcome, especially by someone as driven as Harper.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4247935)
I don't think cardsfanboy was wildly off in that thread. Actually I think he was pretty dead on. He said "He's going to be a star provided he doesn't Josh Hamilton his life. I just don't think it's realistic to look at any talented ballplayers first month in the majors and think that is indicative of how good he actually is right now."

That thread was on June 11 - on that morning Harper had a 889 OPS, and since that afternoon Harper has put up a 764 OPS.

He also says:

"Be optimistic, say he is 110 ops+ with plus's across the board. I'm not sure that makes him one of the best players at his position. We'll be generous and say he's a centerfielder. We'll even go say he's an above average fielder. Would a 110 ops+ centerfielder above average be considered top 5 at his position?"

The next comment bashes cardsfanboy for pulling a number out of his butt. Today Harper has a 113 OPS+.
   14. Esoteric Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4247936)
I think cardsfanboy wasn't all that unfair in the earlier thread. In fact, much of what he wrote (about how Harper was going to be scouted and that he would soon need to make adjustments because pitchers would be altering their approach) turned out to be downright prophetic.

But, are we all agreed that, at this point, Bryce Harper has become the odds-on favorite to win NL ROY? He really has come all the back from that dreadful mid-season slump. He made the 'adjustment.'

EDIT: Coke to PreservedFish
   15. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4247944)
He repeatedly in that thread kept saying things like Harper is a "league average player" and "no way is he one of the top 50 players in baseball right now".

Wrong, and wrong.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4247947)
He was wrong about Harper being "league average," but I'm not seeing any belly laughs. If you take his numbers from June 11 on, and take the small-sample defensive numbers with a grain of salt, I bet his performance from then to now has indeed been close to league average.

Moreover, he absolutely NAILED what Harper would be ("110 ops+ with plus's across the board") - he just underrated what type of player that represented.

Is Harper top 50? I have no idea, but I bet it's close.
   17. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4247953)
Is Harper top 50? I have no idea, but I bet it's close.

4.5 fWAR, 4.3 rWAR. Yes, Harper is one of the top 50 everyday position players in MLB right now, and by a fairly comfortable margin.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4247962)
Still not seeing any belly laughs.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4247973)
It's true, Harper has been a top 50 position player this year. But let's not get too excited, he's still no Darwin Barney.
   20. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4247977)
I think that the mistake cardsfanboy made in that thread was in overestimating how many good position players there are in the league. He pretty much nailed Harper's absolute value. His mistake was in thinking that that value is league average for an OF.

EDIT: Also, at the time of that thread Harper was still mainly a RF, right? A RF with a 113 OPS+ isn't nearly as exciting as a competent CF with the same hitting skills.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4247995)
EDIT: Also, at the time of that thread Harper was still mainly a RF, right? A RF with a 113 OPS+ isn't nearly as exciting as a competent CF with the same hitting skills.


Yes, and despite this, Cardsfanboy gave him credit for not only being a CF, but being a good one. So again, he nailed Harper. This was much closer to the most accurate prediction in the history of the website than it was a poor one.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4248359)
I don't really see anything wrong with my prediction. I think I'm pretty close to what he did, and am happy he's having a good year.

As to top 50 players in the game right now. Not in any particular order, just counting (and this isn't about who is having the better season, it's about how good they actually are) 1. Pujols, 2. Fielder, 3. Votto 4. Encarnacion 5. Cano 6. Utley 7. Pedroia 8. Cabrera 9. Wright 10. Headley 11. Beltre 12.Aramis 13. Zimmerman 14. Longoria 15. Tulowitzki 16. Reyes 17. Braun 18. Holliday 19. Beltran 20. Carlos Gonzalez 21. Alex Gordon 22. McCutchen 23. Kemp 24. Hamilton 25.Adam Jones 26. Granderson 27. Yadier 28. Posey 29. Mauer 30.Carlos Santana.... So top 50 might have been a stretch, kinda like the original comment as one of the best position players in baseball "right now".


Didn't include Chipper, Arod, Freese, Trout, Jeter, Bautista, Teix, Adrian Gonzalez, John Jay, Torii Hunter, Jay Bruce, Ethier, Wieters, Carlos Ruiz, and probably some others.
   23. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: September 28, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4248394)
I don't really see anything wrong with my prediction.


You didn't teabag Harper's balls, so of course Joey thinks you're doing it wrong.
   24. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: September 28, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4248414)
Cardsfanboy, June 11, 2012: "He's going to finish the season as roughly a league average player."
Nasty Nate, a few minutes later: "Can you give me some stock tips?"

Cardsfanboy: "Take every penny you have and invest it in pets.com."
   25. Spahn Insane Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4248582)
And, the Bucs' chase for .500 ends with a bang, on Bailey's 96-gamescore no-hitter. (Well, they can still finish AT .500, but can't win 82.)
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4248594)
I think that the mistake cardsfanboy made in that thread was in overestimating how many good position players there are in the league. He pretty much nailed Harper's absolute value. His mistake was in thinking that that value is league average for an OF.


Moreover, he absolutely NAILED what Harper would be ("110 ops+ with plus's across the board") - he just underrated what type of player that represented.


I think cardsfanboy wasn't all that unfair in the earlier thread. In fact, much of what he wrote (about how Harper was going to be scouted and that he would soon need to make adjustments because pitchers would be altering their approach) turned out to be downright prophetic.


Thanks for the defense.
   27. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 28, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4248599)
Well, your investment advice still sucks.
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:05 PM (#4248609)
Well, your investment advice still sucks.


Well you do know that I never actually posted that stock tip that was supposedly quoted from me. Although it would have been a good joke if I would have thought of it.

Although I should have said he will finish the season as about a league average starter, not league average player. It might have clarified my position a little better. But of course as pointed out by others, a 110 ops+ above average defensive centerfielder is by definition an above average player.
   29. Rennie's Tenet Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4248622)
bang


Uh, whimper.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4248627)
#24 is one of the most pathetic comments I've ever seen on this website.
   31. Lassus Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4248632)
Mets are five games in back of Philly. My prediction was the Mets finish within three games of them.

What was that you were saying, Joey?

   32. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4248634)
Well you do know that I never actually posted that stock tip that was supposedly quoted from me. Although it would have been a good joke if I would have thought of it.


Actually, I thought that you did post it and that it was an OK joke. Not exactly a belly laugh, though.
   33. McCoy Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4249034)
An argument can be made that Harper is not one of the top 50 positional players right now. He isn't one of the top 50 offensive players in the game right now. What puts him in the top 50 of WAR is the plus +11 he gets because of position and fielding. So the question becomes how much faith do you want to put in DRS for a player with little over a 1000 innings under his belt?

DRS gives him +13. TZ gives him +7. Use TZ and he is mid 40's in WAR.
   34. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4249081)
#24 is one of the most pathetic comments I've ever seen on this website.

I feel that I must step forward and defend the man. It wasn't even his most pathetic comment posted this week. You must have missed the "why couldn't you have been the one to have Dusty Baker's stroke?" quip, with the "you're a homo" followup.

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