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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

No, New York players do not get an unfair bump in Hall of Fame voting

Angels owner Arte Moreno said something interesting yesterday. He was talking about the retired former Angel, Garret Anderson, and said “If he would have played in New York, he’d be in the Hall of Fame.”

The initial — and, I would add, the most on-point — response to this is to note that, for however good a player Anderson was at times, no definition of the term “Hall of Famer” really encompasses his legacy. He was OK. Pretty good on occasion. Nowhere near a Hall of Famer, and I don’t think you need me to go over the math to establish that. The only way Anderson would ever sniff the Hall of Fame one day is if we sent Tony La Russa back in time to manage him for several years and then brought him back from the past to strong-arme the Veterans Committee.

The more interesting question to me is the matter implied in Moreno’s comment: that players in New York get an unfair boost when it comes to the Hall of Fame.

I get why he might say that and I get why people might believe it. New York gets all the press. If you can make it there you can make it anywhere and, my God, people in New York will not let you forget it for a second. East Coast Bias™ and all of that.

It’s never too early to start an argument over the Hall of Fame!

 

QLE Posted: March 26, 2019 at 06:18 AM | 102 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: arte moreno, garret anderson, hall of fame, new york

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   1. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:17 AM (#5825293)
Garret Anderson was a taller, black, left handed version of Steve Garvey. On the field that is, I would not insult GA to suggest he's anything like Garvey off the field.

They are each other's #1 career comp on baseball reference. That's based on career totals, but it's uncanny how they even mirror each other's development and decline. Both hit for high averages, moderate to good power, and refused to take a walk. Always swinging away helped pad their RBI totals.

Garvey started a bit younger at 20, but only had 103 PA before his age 22 season, Anderson started at 22 and his first significant playing time came at 23.

Both had a power spike at age 28. Garvey hit 33, Anderson 35. Neither ever hit 30 again but both showed good power over the next 3 years, and both had a permanent drop in power at age 32 (Garvey 10 in a 110 game strike year, Anderson 14 in a 112 game injury year). Both played regularly to age 37, where they were below average hitters and below replacement despite triple crown numbers that were not horrible.

Both were done at age 38, playing poorly in part time play and not getting any more chances.

Garvey did get some HOF support and stuck on the ballot 15 years. Part of that is him being better than Anderson due to the changes in run scoring for the 70s vs. the 90s. Part of it is that Garvey got way more support than he ever should have.

Anderson is the type of player who should not be strongly considered for Cooperstown, but is a perfect candidate for his team's Hall of Fame, spending almost all of his career with the Angels, all of his good years there, and especially timing his best years for when they mattered most to the team's accomplishments.
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:25 AM (#5825294)
If there was a New York Premium to Hall of Fame consideration, wouldn’t Bernie Williams, Willie Randolph, Ron Guidry, Elston Howard, Don Mattingly, Roger Maris, Jorge Posada, David Cone, John Franco, Keith Hernandez, Andy Pettitte and a bunch of other guys of that caliber get more support than they’ve historically gotten?


No. If anything, those guys have tended to receive much more serious consideration than they would’ve if they hadn’t played in New York. Mattingly, for example, hung around on the ballot for the full fifteen years and debuted at 28% of the vote, while Will Clark, who played the same position, was active at the same time, and had a demonstrably superior career, was a one-and-done on the ballot. Maris also hung on the ballot for fifteen years, with vote totals that climbed as high as 43.1%, while his contemporary Rocky Colavito, a superior player, only managed two years and a peak of less than 1%. Elston Howard? Fifteen years and a peak of 20.7%. Bill Freehan? One year at 0.5%, which is 1/20th of the support Howard got in that same election.

And that’s without even mentioning some of the worst cases of New York nepotism, like Gil Hodges and George Steinbrenner.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 09:10 AM (#5825305)
Elston Howard? Fifteen years and a peak of 20.7%. Bill Freehan? One year at 0.5%, which is 1/20th of the support Howard got in that same election.

Bad comparison. Howard likely got significant credit for breaking the color barrier with the Yankees.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 09:32 AM (#5825319)
that’s without even mentioning some of the worst cases of New York nepotism, like Gil Hodges and George Steinbrenner.

I looked for their plaques at Cooperstown, but had no luck. maybe they were being cleaned.

Look, I don't vote for Hodges in the Hall of Merit, but he was an 8-time All-Star who also earned a bronze star in the Navy in World War II for service as a gunner in the 16th Anti-Aircraft Battalion in the Pacific. He managed the most "amazing" World Series champs of the past century, the 1969 Mets - after hitting the first HR in Mets history in 1962. He ended his playing career to take the job as manager of the Washington Senators, who kept improving once he took over (no HOM credit for managing or bronze stars, fyi). The Mets paid $100,000 and a prospect to get him out of Washington.

When Hodges retired, he held the all-time NL record for most career HR by a right-handed hitter.

If NY bias can't get that superficial resume in, what good is it?
   5. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:25 AM (#5825346)
I think Munson is the best proof that there is no New York HOF bump. You're talking about the catcher of two championship teams who won a ROY and MVP, then died young less than a year after the last title. He hit for a high average (.292 career) and had three years of 100+ RBIs. He was the Yankees' first captain since Gehrig. His career numbers come up short, but it's still hard to believe that the NY bump is a thing considering the best he did on the ballot was 15%.
   6. bfan Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5825349)
As a corner OF, Garret Anderson ended his career with an OPS+ of 102. He was barely above average as a hitter generally, was below average as a hitter for his position, and wasn't much of a fielder. WTF is he talking about? If he is going to b*tch about matters like this, at least bring up a good example, as Bobby Grich might be.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5825350)
Mattingly, for example, hung around on the ballot for the full fifteen years and debuted at 28% of the vote, while Will Clark, who played the same position, was active at the same time, and had a demonstrably superior career, was a one-and-done on the ballot. Maris also hung on the ballot for fifteen years, with vote totals that climbed as high as 43.1%, while his contemporary Rocky Colavito, a superior player, only managed two years and a peak of less than 1%. Elston Howard? Fifteen years and a peak of 20.7%. Bill Freehan? One year at 0.5%, which is 1/20th of the support Howard got in that same election.


Mattingly, Maris and Howard all won MVPs. Clark, Colavito and Freehan didn't.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5825352)
I'm always interested in trying to figure out if a person who says things like Moreno did are really, really stupid - or just bullshit artists pandering to their fans.

wait, I guess he could be both.

I was going to look at who else has a career OPS+ of 102 - but bb-ref only lists the top 1000, so just down to 103.

103s include Jose Cardenal, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ed Charles, Jason Heyward, Jay Johnstone, Denis Menke, Jose Reyes, Roy Smalley, and Joel Youngblood. none of the 103s are in the HOF.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5825356)
Mattingly, Maris and Howard all won MVPs. Clark, Colavito and Freehan didn't.


Which is, in and of itself, evidence of pro-NY bias among the members of the media that vote for the Hall, given that the latter were better players than the former.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:47 AM (#5825357)
I was going to look at who else has a career OPS+ of 102 - but bb-ref only lists the top 1000, so just down to 103.

103s include Jose Cardenal, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ed Charles, Jason Heyward, Jay Johnstone, Denis Menke, Jose Reyes, Roy Smalley, and Joel Youngblood. none of the 103s are in the HOF.


I looked at corner OFs with >5000 PA, and an 100<OPS+<105.

1 Carl Crawford
2 Garret Anderson
3 Charlie Jamieson
4 Jo-Jo Moore
5 Matt Lawton
6 Jack Graney
7 Chief Wilson
8 Max Flack
9 Tommy Griffith
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5825370)
I looked for their plaques at Cooperstown, but had no luck. maybe they were being cleaned.


The argument is that New York players get disproportionate support relative to non-New York players of equivalent quality, and a player doesn't have to actually be elected in order to demonstrate that.

If NY bias can't get that superficial resume in, what good is it?


It got the 37th-best 1B by JAWS over 60% of the vote on the writers' ballot several times, as well as nine of a possible sixteen votes from the 2011 Golden Era committee. But I'm sure nine seasons as a manager, with a cumulative .467 winning % and one playoff appearance are enough to earn him the treatment as a serious candidate that players like Clark and Todd Helton apparently never merited.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5825372)
Bad comparison. Howard likely got significant credit for breaking the color barrier with the Yankees.


Why does that matter if he wasn't a HOF-caliber talent? The AL had already been integrated for eight years at that point. Should we also elect Pumpsie Green?
   13. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5825379)
Which is, in and of itself, evidence of pro-NY bias among the members of the media that vote for the Hall, given that the latter were better players than the former.


So the geographically dispersed writers who voted on the MVP were demonstrating New York bias when they awarded MVPs to Clark and Freehan's teammates?
   14. rconn23 Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5825395)
"He was talking about the retired former Angel, Garret Anderson, and said “If he would have played in New York, he’d be in the Hall of Fame.”

Gosh, someone should tell this to Bernie Williams, who was light years better than Anderson.
   15. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5825399)

Mattingly, Maris and Howard all won MVPs. Clark, Colavito and Freehan didn't.
Also, there may have been something else on Maris's resume that wasn't on any of the others'. Can't remember what it was.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5825400)
So the geographically dispersed writers who voted on the MVP were demonstrating New York bias when they awarded MVPs to Clark and Freehan's teammates?


No, but they were (at least in part) when they awarded Howard and Mattingly MVP awards in seasons where neither was among the top five players in his league.
   17. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5825401)
The argument is that New York players get disproportionate support relative to non-New York players of equivalent quality, and a player doesn't have to actually be elected in order to demonstrate that.
No. The argument was not "Garret Anderson would have gotten significantly more support but still not come close to making the HOF if he played in NY."
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5825402)
Also, there may have been something else on Maris's resume that wasn't on any of the others'. Can't remember what it was.


It's certainly understandable why they voted for Maris for MVP in 1961, under the circumstances, but the fact remains that Maris was treated as a serious Hall candidate even though he was woefully underqualified for the Hall both by modern standards and those of the era in which his vote took place.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5825404)
The argument was not "Garret Anderson would have gotten significantly more support but still not come close to making the HOF if he played in NY."


There are several arguments, and the primary one that Craig is making is about pro-NY bias, rather than Anderson.

The argument that there's no such thing as pro-NY voting bias for the Hall is just as obviously wrong and dumb as the argument that Anderson would be in the Hall if he'd been a Yankee. Even a notable systemic bias like that one can only do so much...
   20. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5825410)
No, but they were (at least in part) when they awarded Howard and Mattingly MVP awards in seasons where neither was among the top five players in his league.


Mattingly's MVP came at a period when the most importent criteria for voters was leading the league in RBI. See also Don Baylor, Jeff Burroughs, George Bell, Andre Dawson, Kevin Mitchell, none of whom played in NY.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5825411)
Why does that matter if he wasn't a HOF-caliber talent? The AL had already been integrated for eight years at that point. Should we also elect Pumpsie Green?

Because it makes him top-of-mind for some guys giving throw-away votes. Votes for a guy who never tops 20% are there own form of recognition.
   22. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5825413)
Mattingly, for example, hung around on the ballot for the full fifteen years and debuted at 28% of the vote, while Will Clark, who played the same position, was active at the same time, and had a demonstrably superior career, was a one-and-done on the ballot


You are not going to prove anything by citing one cherry picked example. Mattingly also quickly dropped below 20%, spent most of his time in the mid to low teens, punctuated only by occasional drops below 10%. Steve Garvey, a similar if slightly worse player than Mattingly, also spent 15 years on the ballot, with 2-3 times as much support as Mattingly. Does Jim Rice getting elected while his superior teammate Dwight Evans was 3 and done prove a LF bias? Where was the NYC bias for Willie Randolph? He got 5 votes his first and only time on the ballot, a ballot in which voters gave 80 votes to Dave Concepcion, 195 votes to Steve Garvey, and 203 votes to Jim Rice.
   23. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5825417)
The argument was not "Garret Anderson would have gotten significantly more support but still not come close to making the HOF if he played in NY."


Obviously to get into the Hall of Fame, a lefty hitter has to be from Chicago.
   24. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5825428)
Mattingly's MVP came at a period when the most importent criteria for voters was leading the league in RBI.


AL RBI leaders with rank in MVP voting, 1980s:

1980: Cecil Cooper (5th)
1981: Eddie Murray (5th)
1982: Hal McRay (4th)
1983: Jim Rice (4th) and Cecil Cooper (5th)
1984: Tony Armas (7th)
1985: Don Mattingly (1st)
1986: Joe Carter (9th)
1987: George Bell (1st)
1988: Jose Canseco (1st)
1989: Ruben Sierra (2nd)

So, counting Mattingly's award, that's three out of ten. Clearly, the writers' hand was forced.
   25. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5825431)
It's certainly understandable why they voted for Maris for MVP in 1961, under the circumstances, but the fact remains that Maris was treated as a serious Hall candidate even though he was woefully underqualified for the Hall both by modern standards and those of the era in which his vote took place.


There are a lot of similarities between Roger Maris and Hack Wilson, and their career WARs are almost the same, except Wilson is actually in the Hall of Fame. I guess it's because Wilson started his career in New York.
   26. Ithaca2323 Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5825435)
No. If anything, those guys have tended to receive much more serious consideration than they would’ve if they hadn’t played in New York.


Oh please. Much more serious consideration?

Posada, Franco, Howard, Randolph and Cone got one and doned. Hernandez never got even 11% of the vote. Williams never got 10%. Guidry never got 9%.

There are exactly three guys listed there who got a boost from NY. Mattingly debuted at 28%, but saw his support sink like a stone almost instantly, never going above 18% after year two.

Pettitte does better if not for the PED stain, but if we're bringing in non-geography related stuff into the equation, I'm guessing nearly all of Maris' support had to do with 61 HR.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5825436)
You are not going to prove anything by citing one cherry picked example.


I didn't pick these cherries. They're Craig Calcaterra's chosen examples, not mine.


Mattingly also quickly dropped below 20%, spent most of his time in the mid to low teens, punctuated only by occasional drops below 10%.


And if he'd spent his entire career with the Tigers or the Royals, he would've probably gotten dropped after one ballot. That's the point I'm making. The pro-New York bias isn't large enough to push an obviously undeserving guy across the line in most cases, but it does still greatly boost the signal for their candidates.

Where was the NYC bias for Willie Randolph? He got 5 votes his first and only time on the ballot, a ballot in which voters gave 80 votes to Dave Concepcion, 195 votes to Steve Garvey, and 203 votes to Jim Rice.


a) All three of the players I named, as well as their less-supported counterparts, played the same position and were active at the same time, and were even as close as I could get on type of player, so none of the guys you named are particularly good comps.

b) Randolph was an OBP-oriented 2B, and basically none of the guys with that profile in the '80s and early '90s got even a sniff from the Hall. See, for example, the greatly superior Lou Whitaker (also a one-and-done), the fairly comparable Tony Phillips (ditto), the inferior-but-reasonably-similar Julio Franco (ditto) and Tony Fernandez (ditto), etc. A force multiplier doesn't do much if you're applying it to a baseline chance of zero.
   28. Ithaca2323 Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5825438)
They were (at least in part) when they awarded... Mattingly MVP awards in seasons where neither was among the top five players in his league.


Considering the top player in the American League in 1985 actually played for the Yankees, this is not the point you think it is.
   29. Blastin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5825439)
The actual argument being used, instead of the data cited in the piece (well, linked to) is people who hung around the lower regions of the ballot? That's not the hall of fame, yo. Now, there might be a "more people have heard of them so they hang around the bottom of the ballot" thing going on, I guess.

So yes, you've proven that being in NY makes people more famous. But not that it makes them have an actual better chance of getting into the HOF, which is what Moreno said. You're reacting to the headline, basically, the literal "bump in HOF voting," so yes, you can be satisfied to have disproven that sentence with two data points. Good job.


   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5825440)
There are a lot of similarities between Roger Maris and Hack Wilson, and their career WARs are almost the same, except Wilson is actually in the Hall of Fame. I guess it's because Wilson started his career in New York.


Wilson is in the Hall because the Veterans' Committee put him in, and Maris's top three vote %s from the writers were all better than Wilson's best.

In fact, let's line it up:

Best: Maris +4.8
2nd best: Maris +7.3
3rd best: Maris +9.3
4th best: Maris +5.6
5th best: Maris +5.0

...and so forth.
   31. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5825441)
And if he'd spent his entire career with the Tigers or the Royals, he would've probably gotten dropped after one ballot.


And if he'd spent his entire career with the Twins, he'd have been Kirby Puckett and gotten elected.

None of the recent players people talk about as mistakes - Baines, Rice, Sutter, Morris - played in New York except Catfish Hunter, and he spent most of his career in Oakland. If there's a New York bias, it certainly hasn't shown up in who has gotten voted in.
   32. Blastin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:09 PM (#5825442)
A force multiplier doesn't do much if you're applying it to a baseline chance of zero.


All of these people had a chance of zero, even if some shouldn't have.

There was probably a Yankee boost for the hangers on from the 20s and 30s, but all of that era is over represented by far.

For people who played after Rizzuto, they don't have any more egregious selections (not "hang on the ballot" because who cares) than other teams. If you can say this is untrue, I'd like to see the data thereof.
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:10 PM (#5825443)
Considering the top player in the American League in 1985 actually played for the Yankees, this is not the point you think it is.


And he finished very well in the voting, as you'd expect for a top talent who played well for the Yankees. Including Rickey, the #1-3 guys by WAR that year finished #2-4 in the actual voting... right behind Mattingly.
   34. Blastin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5825444)
If there's a New York bias, it certainly hasn't shown up in who has gotten voted in.


Right. That's the actual point. No one cares about who hangs around the bottom of ballots. Craig, despite the headline, is talking about entry. But let's analyze who got farther away from zero votes in minute detail.
   35. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5825446)
They were (at least in part) when they awarded... Mattingly MVP awards in seasons where neither was among the top five players in his league.

Considering the top player in the American League in 1985 actually played for the Yankees, this is not the point you think it is.
Also, bbref actually has him 5th by WAR. (Among position players, anyway.) A very very distant fifth, but as you note, the guy who should've won also played in NY.
   36. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5825447)
There was probably a Yankee boost for the hangers on from the 20s and 30s, but all of that era is over represented by far.


There's clearly a boost for players who play on winning teams, because those players gain a lot more visibility. And the Yankees of that era (and others) won a lot.
   37. Blastin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5825449)
There's clearly a boost for players who play on winning teams, because those players gain a lot more visibility. And the Yankees of that era (and others) won a lot.


Yeah. But moreso in the past. The 90s-00s group isn't getting any nonHOFers in.
   38. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5825451)
And if he'd spent his entire career with the Twins, he'd have been Kirby Puckett and gotten elected.


Bad example.

Puckett had a career WAR of 51.1 and a JAWS of 44.4, compared to Mattingly's 42.4 and 39.1, so his playing record was significantly better. He was also given a ton of "extra credit" for what was perceived at the time as very strong personal character.

If there's a New York bias, it certainly hasn't shown up in who has gotten voted in.


Which is as much a reflection of the relative lack of borderline NY candidates as anything else. The pattern in terms of actual votes w/r/t comparable players seems pretty clear.
   39. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5825452)
There's clearly a boost for players who play on winning teams, because those players gain a lot more visibility. And the Yankees of that era (and others) won a lot.
There are other reasons why there would've been a Yankee bias in that era. A disproportionate number of teams, and media members, in NY.
   40. Blastin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5825453)
The pattern in terms of actual votes w/r/t comparable players seems pretty clear.


So maybe he used a bad example, which you're stuck on, for some reason.

Now go run the analysis with more examples, and with actual entry.

This is a dumb argument.
   41. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5825454)
So, counting Mattingly's award, that's three out of ten. Clearly, the writers' hand was forced.


Gee, those dates aren't cherry picked at all. It's also 4 of 11 (1979) and 5 out of 12 (1978) While my comment was obviously hyperbole and a little tongue in cheek, the fact is that aside from relievers, most of the undeserving MVPs will have one thing in common, leading the league in RBI.

b) Randolph was an OBP-oriented 2B, and basically none of the guys with that profile in the '80s and early '90s got even a sniff from the Hall. See, for example, the greatly superior Lou Whitaker (also a one-and-done), the fairly comparable Tony Phillips (ditto), the inferior-but-reasonably-similar Julio Franco (ditto) and Tony Fernandez (ditto), etc. A force multiplier doesn't do much if you're applying it to a baseline chance of zero.


Lou Whitaker (75.1 WAR) is greatly superior to Randolph (65.9) but Tony Phillips (50.9) is reasonably similar?

a) All three of the players I named, as well as their less-supported counterparts, played the same position and were active at the same time, and were even as close as I could get on type of player, so none of the guys you named are particularly good comps.


So, one is only allowed to argue for or against bias if you have perfect comps? Do Ron Guidry (never above 10%) and Jack Morris (in the HOF) count? Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey? Where's the Yankee bias for Graig Nettles (4 and done), a deserving HOFer?
   42. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5825455)
Also, bbref actually has him 5th by WAR. (Among position players, anyway.)


So, sixth, and outside the top five, just like I said.

There's no reason a pitcher couldn't have been seen as a reasonable MVP candidate in 1985 - AL pitchers won the MVP in both 1984 and 1986.
   43. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5825459)
Gee, those dates aren't cherry picked at all.


They actually aren't. I picked a year range and then checked the numbers, because I knew that what you said wasn't true.

Right. That's the actual point. No one cares about who hangs around the bottom of ballots. Craig, despite the headline, is talking about entry. But let's analyze who got farther away from zero votes in minute detail.


And because of the sample size concerned, Craig is missing out on the existence of a real and significant trend. Then, the next time pro-New York bias pushes a fringe-to-borderline guy over the line, people will just say, "Well, it's just an anomaly. We haven't had one of those since Hunter, after all!" and the cycle will begin anew.
   44. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5825461)
This absurd argument seems to me to be much more about Vlad's anti-NY bias than anything else.
   45. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:31 PM (#5825462)
Puckett had a career WAR of 51.1 and a JAWS of 44.4, compared to Mattingly's 42.4 and 39.1, so his playing record was significantly better.


Let's recap here: You think Mattingly, who never got even 50% of the vote, is an example of New York bias. But Puckett, who sailed in with 82% of the vote despite numbers that were superficially identical to Mattingly's - same number of homers, same number of Top Five MVP finishes, same number of games played, almost the same slash lines - got in because the voters somehow detected that he had 5.3 more JAWS.
   46. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5825464)
Gee, those dates aren't cherry picked at all. It's also 4 of 11 (1979) and 5 out of 12 (1978) While my comment was obviously hyperbole and a little tongue in cheek, the fact is that aside from relievers, most of the undeserving MVPs will have one thing in common, leading the league in RBI.


There's also the fact that Mattingly was the only MVP winner from New York (in either league) during the 1980s, and in fact the only MVP from New York between 1976 and 2005. Whatever you want to say about Mattingly's MVP, New York obviously had nothing to do with it.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5825468)
Do Ron Guidry (never above 10%) and Jack Morris (in the HOF) count?


I'm sorry, but that's just an unbelievably stupid comp.

For a long time, HOF starters had a relatively hard line drawn at 200 wins, and Guidry only had 170. By the standards of the time in which he was eligible, he was an obvious non-contender.

However, something interesting does emerge if you look at pitcher wins. If you look at all the HOF pitchers who were elected primarily as SP, and sort them by their win totals, you see that there were ten who were elected with sub-200 win totals.

Here are those ten:
Jack Chesbro (*)
Dazzy Vance (*)
Ed Walsh
Rube Waddell
Lefty Gomez (*)
Sandy Koufax (*)
John Montgomery Ward (*)
Addie Joss
Dizzy Dean
Candy Cummings

Huh. Looks like five out of the ten, the ones with asterisks after their names, spent a big portion of their careers with a team in New York. Very interesting! I wonder what might explain that?

(You could arguably go six out of ten and include Cummings, who only played six ML seasons, spent no more than two with any one team, and put up his second-best season in New York.)
   48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5825474)
There's also the fact that Mattingly was the only MVP winner from New York (in either league) during the 1980s, and in fact the only MVP from New York between 1976 and 2005. Whatever you want to say about Mattingly's MVP, New York obviously had nothing to do with it.


Yankees players weren't winning MVP awards in the 1980s because the Yankees as a team weren't all that good. They did tend to punch above their weight in voting results - see, for example, 1981, when two Yankees finished in the top 10 in MVP voting with the 22nd- and 24th-best WAR totals in the league.

But Puckett, who sailed in with 82% of the vote despite numbers that were superficially identical to Mattingly's - same number of homers, same number of Top Five MVP finishes, same number of games played, almost the same slash lines - got in because the voters somehow detected that he had 5.3 more JAWS.


The fact that they had the same number of top-five MVP finishes even though Puckett had both more peak and career value seems like it'd undercut your argument that no pro-NY bias exists, rather than supporting it.

And of course, there's the small matter of Mattingly being a first baseman and Puckett being a seven-time Gold Glove winner in center field. Positional value is a thing that exists, and the HOF standards at different positions are very different for a reason.
   49. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5825475)
Let's recap here: You think Mattingly, who never got even 50% of the vote,


Never got 30%, and only twice got more than 20. Meanwhile, actual fringe/borderline (I would argue even better than that) Yankees Willie Randolph and Graig Nettles are not valid counterexamples.

Then, the next time pro-New York bias pushes a fringe-to-borderline guy over the line, people will just say, "Well, it's just an anomaly. We haven't had one of those since Hunter, after all!"


In addition to Randolph and Nettles, actual fringe/borderline Yankees have done quite poorly in the voting. Posada was one and done, as were Bernie Williams and Paul O'neil. Thurman Munson never got more than 15%. Chris Chambliss got 0 votes. Andy Pettitte got less than 10% last year, which bodes poorly for his election. He will likely become the first pitcher with 100 more wins than losses to be rejected (non-PED division). David Cone spent 13 years in NY and was one and done. Ditto Dwight Gooden. Ditto Jerry Koosman. There are far more examples of borderline/perhaps deserving NYC players underperforming then a few guys getting a few undeserved votes.
   50. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5825477)
However, something interesting does emerge if you look at pitcher wins. If you look at all the HOF pitchers who were elected primarily as SP, and sort them by their win totals, you see that there were ten who were elected with sub-200 win totals.
And by "elected," you mean "selected by the Veteran's Committee," for all except Koufax and Dean.

(Yes, pedants: sometimes it was the Old-Timer's Committee.)
   51. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5825478)
He will likely become the first pitcher with 100 more wins than losses to be rejected (non-PED division)

Um?
   52. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5825479)
For a long time, HOF starters had a relatively hard line drawn at 200 wins, and Guidry only had 170. By the standards of the time in which he was eligible, he was an obvious non-contender.
The only thing obvious about this is the SBB-type trolling. Sometimes you pick advanced stats; sometimes you pick "standards of the time," whichever one best makes an indefensible case.

Mattingly didn't just lead the league in RBI in 1985; he had 145 RBI, which was the most in the American League since Al Rosen in 1953.
   53. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5825481)
Yes, I'm sure it was his 9-10 record with Brooklyn that pushed Koufax over the top.
   54. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5825482)
He will likely become the first pitcher with 100 more wins than losses to be rejected (non-PED division)

Um?


Is there another one, besides Clemens?
   55. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:58 PM (#5825484)

Is there another one, besides Clemens?
I think he was questioning the odd inclusion of Pettitte in the "non-PED division."
   56. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5825488)
The only thing obvious about this is the SBB-type trolling. Sometimes you pick advanced stats; sometimes you pick "standards of the time," whichever one best makes an indefensible case.


Surprised he hasn't pointed to Graig Nettles's low batting average.
   57. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5825489)
Yankees players weren't winning MVP awards in the 1980s because the Yankees as a team weren't all that good.


The Yankees won the most games of any team in baseball during the 1980s.
   58. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5825490)
I think he was questioning the odd inclusion of Pettitte in the "non-PED division."


Ah, forgot about that. probably because it's rarely brought up, and I think it is not the reason he did so poorly last year. We'll see if it gets more buzz this year.
   59. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5825497)
As fun as it's been watching you guys try and deny the obvious, I have to get back to work. Will check back in tomorrow, time permitting.



   60. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5825502)
I would sum it up like this: Some players are overrated by the Hall of Fame electorate, like Jim Rice and Roger Maris and Omar Vizquel and Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey and Bruce Sutter and Jack Morris. Some of those players played in New York. Most of them didn't.
   61. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5825505)
Bernie Williams 2 years and done, never over 10%
Willie Randolph 1 and done, 1%
Ron Guidry 9 years, never over 10%
Elston Howard 15 years, high of 20%
Don Mattingly 15 years on ballot, top 28% his first year, usually around 10%
Roger Maris 15 years, high 43%
Jorge Posada 1 and done
David Cone 1 and done
John Franco 1 and done
Keith Hernandez 9 years, peaked at 11%
Andy Pettitte debut at 9.9%

IMO Mattingly and Maris are the only ones who got more support than they should have. Randolph, Cone, and Hernandez deserved much better support than they got.

As far as Maris goes, it's about 61* and not his career value. I can say with a good amount of certainty that if his 275 career homers included 36 in 1959, and 41 in 1961, he would have been a forgotten one and done guy. What I'm not sure about is whether he would have gotten HOF support if his 61 homer season came for a KC A's team. Maybe there's a Yankee boost here, I'm just not sure.

I would not have voted for Franco, but considering that Smith, Sutter, Hoffman are in his one and done is inconsistent.

Worst HOF selections from the last 20 years (not considering non-players, Negro leagues, or 1800s) are:

Cepeda
Perez
Puckett
Mazeroski
Gossage*
Rice
Morris
Hoffman
L Smith
Baines

One Yankee. And whatever you think of Gossage, at least he's a better selection than Hoffman, Sutter, and Smith.
   62. Karl from NY Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:58 PM (#5825509)
If there's a New York bias, it certainly hasn't shown up in who has gotten voted in.

Catfish Hunter and Rich Gossage are the examples. They had itinerant Hall of Very Good careers and then only became known as great after hitching on to the Yankees. Put those same years with the same stats in some fifth-place city like Kansas City or Cleveland and they never get noticed.

I think those are the only two writer electees directly caused by NY bias. It probably also factored in to VCers like Rizzuto, Lazzeri, Slaughter. It does also factor in to more support than deserved for downballoters like Mattingly, Maris, Munson, Larsen. Then I think the voters got smarter in the internet age and the effect faded by the time the 90's Yankees got to balloting.
   63. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5825512)
Catfish Hunter and Rich Gossage are the examples. They had itinerant Hall of Very Good careers and then only became known as great after hitching on to the Yankees.


Is that the same Catfish Hunter who was the mainstay of a rotation that won three straight WS,was a six time All Star, starting one, pitched a perfect game, and won a CYA all before coming to the Yankees? That guy was itinerant and unkown?
   64. Srul Itza Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5825513)
Catfish Hunter . . . only became known as great after hitching on to the Yankees.


No. Not even close.

Hunter was a linchpin, or seen as such, for the A's teams that won 3 World Series in a row, 72-74. He won a Cy Young with them, while going 67-24 in the regular season with a 125 ERA+ (the last of 4 consecutive 20 win seasons with the A's), 7-1 in the Post Season and 4-0 in the World Series.

He wasn't much of a much after that, but when he came over to the Yankees (where he had one good year, and then hung around for 2 more rings while not contributing much), he was viewed as a star.

Hella overrated, yes, but the assertion he was only viewed as great AFTER coming over the Yankees is revisionist history.


EDIT: Mai Tai to Misirlou, if he ever gets out this way.

   65. Karl from NY Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5825515)
Not unknown, but Hall of Very Good not Hall of Fame. Compare Vida Blue in the same rotation with similar credentials and WAR but spent the back half of his career in backwater cities.

And fine, even if you want to dispute Hunter, there's absolutely no way Gossage isn't a massive beneficiary of bias from NY exposure.
   66. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5825516)
As for Gossage, once Sutter, Eck, and Fingers were elected, it was clear that it was impossible to make an argument that he didn't belong.
   67. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5825517)
Catfish Hunter and Rich Gossage are the examples. They had itinerant Hall of Very Good careers and then only became known as great after hitching on to the Yankees.

Catfish Hunter won 20 games four years in a row, and won a Cy Young before coming to the Yankees. That description doesn't fit him at all.

Edit: multi-Cokes. Didn't refresh.
   68. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:23 PM (#5825518)
there's absolutely no way Gossage isn't a massive beneficiary of bias from NY exposure.


Of course there is. Bruce Sutter, a vastly inferior closer, got elected 2 years before Gossage after never having played for a NY team.
   69. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5825522)
Catfish Hunter and Rich Gossage are the examples. They had itinerant Hall of Very Good careers and then only became known as great after hitching on to the Yankees. Put those same years with the same stats in some fifth-place city like Kansas City or Cleveland and they never get noticed.

Most of what you say above is not true.

Hunter had one good year with Yankees then was mostly hurt after. He also won his Cy Young with the A's. He did not have an itinerant career. He played for the As (both KC and Oakland) his whole career, then came over to the Yankees. He was really well known on the 3 time champion As.

Gossage did play on some more teams, but was still pretty famous on the good Padre teams of the 80s. He had his best year by WAR in Chicago, but by saves, his biggest years were with the Yanks.


edit -- cokes above
   70. Karl from NY Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5825524)
Catfish Hunter won 20 games four years in a row, and won a Cy Young before coming to the Yankees. That description doesn't fit him at all.

If that's a HOF career, then so is Vida Blue. The only daylight between them is Catfish had a catchier nickname and the Yankees titles.
   71. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5825525)
If that's a HOF career, then so is Vida Blue. The only daylight between them is Catfish had a catchier nickname and the Yankees titles.


And he won 20 games 5 years in a row. That is his claim to the Hall. Blue won 20 3 times over 5. Blue was probably a better pitcher, but no one here think Hunter is a hall of famer. He is in because he won 20 5 times in a row and was considered an ace.
   72. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5825526)
Vida Blue's career is actually much more similar to Dwight Gooden's, with one brilliant early season surrounded by several up and down ones. Blue finished 209-161, 3.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 44.8 WAR; Gooden finished 194-112, 3.51 ERA, 111 ERA+, 48.1 WAR.

Of course Gooden, who pitched most of his career in New York, sailed into the Hall of Fame.
   73. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5825528)
Of course I'm not going to read the article, but one thing that there is is a bias towards players from great teams. And those teams are disproportionately Yankee teams. Thus: Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Joe Gordon, Phil Rizzuto, Waite Hoyt, Herb Pennock. It also explains the HOF voters' strange infatuation with Dave Concepcion (and Tony Perez).

Of course this has nothing to do with Don Mattingly's MVP award, and if that's what the article is about, I'll return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
   74. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5825536)
If that's a HOF career, then so is Vida Blue.


No one argued that is a HOFer. What I and others have argued, is that the claim that he was itinerant and unknown before coming to NY is ridiculous.

the Yankees titles.


Hunter was dominating in the A's WS appearances. 5-0 with an ERA of ~2.2 (Blue, 0-3, ERA of 4). On the Yankees, he was 1`-3 with an ERA of ~5.
   75. cardsfanboy Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5825537)
The system is broken if there isn't a hof bias for New York players... Just basic logic say there has to be, a two+ team city with a large population, multiple successful newspapers and a large mainstream media footprint, add in that you keep your vote for life once you earn it, and it's very probable that the largest city represented by voters is going to be New York. But we also know that there are only roughly 450 or so voters, so you are looking at maybe 70 or so New York voters vs 10 or so from Milwaukee or even fewer from a newer city. That is enough voters to move the needle, but it's not enough to put anyone in.

If there wasn't a bias for the hof vote, then there would have to be something wrong with the system, you would have to rig it for it to not have a bias. At the same time, there more than likely is not a large bias for seasonal awards because of the way it's set up, there might be a smidgen of New York bias in the seasonal awards because of the familiarity of the names on the team, but I think much of that is negated by an anti-New York bias that is probably prevalent among the writers when voting for the seasonal award.


   76. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5825538)
Of course I'm not going to read the article, but one thing that there is is a bias towards players from great teams. And those teams are disproportionately Yankee teams. Thus: Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Joe Gordon, Phil Rizzuto, Waite Hoyt, Herb Pennock. It also explains the HOF voters' strange infatuation with Dave Concepcion (and Tony Perez).


My guess is if we look at guys who played before 1961 who are questionable HOF inductees, about 3/16 of them will be guys who mostly played on New York teams.

   77. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5825542)
My guess is if we look at guys who played before 1961 who are questionable HOF inductees, about 3/16 of them will be guys who mostly played on New York teams.

I see what you did there
   78. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5825543)
My guess is if we look at guys who played before 1961 who are questionable HOF inductees, about 3/16 of them will be guys who mostly played on New York teams.


Probably more, because of the NY heavy vets committee of the 60s-70s.
   79. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5825549)
Started to look at this. Non-pitchers first.

Hall of famers who were born before 1921, less than 50 WAR, at least 3000 PA to try and filter out guys who might be in as managers but played a little.

32 guys, so if I'm right no more than 6 should be NY guys. I count 4 NY immediately (Youngs, Rizzuto, Combs, Travis Jackson). Some others never played in NY. Beyond that, will need to look into their careers to determine who is and is not a NY guy. Easy one - Ray Schalk, long career with CHI and NY. But his NY career was 2 PA in his final season. Not a NY guy. The rest will require some interpretation and more work than I have time for right now.
   80. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5825555)
I decided to look into it. Here are the parameters of my investigation:

(1) 19th century players don't count
(2) Questionable HOF inductees are those with <55 WAR. Note "questionable" doesn't mean "bad" or "wrong" it means "open to question". Maybe this bar is too high, but I'm not going through and re-counting them.
(3) Negro league players don't count.
(4) Who counts as a pre-1961 player I decided arbitrarily and capriciously.

Within those parameters I get 34 primarily non-NY HOFers and 17 primarily NY HOFers. Exactly 50/50. Among the non-NYers are plenty of guys who spent some time with NY teams - Billy Herman, Kiki Cuyler, Joe Sewell, Ernie Lombardi, and so on. I counted them as non-NYers since their best seasons were with other teams. Of the NY HOFers, I count 8 Yankees, 8 Giants, and Burleigh Grimes representing the Dodgers.
   81. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5825560)
Within those parameters I get 34 primarily non-NY HOFers and 17 primarily NY HOFers. Exactly 50/50


Do you mean 34 total?
   82. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5825562)
Oh heck, math fail. 1/3 NYers.
   83. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5825563)
Oh heck, math fail. 1/3 NYers.

Given that the NY teams accounted for 41 of the 80 pennant winners between 1921 and 1960 that's not too surprising.
   84. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5825565)
For Rally's search, add George Kelly, Roger Bresnahan, and Freddie Lindstrom. That gets you to seven. Lazzeri hit 50.0 bWAR on the nose. Might be some 19th century guys, I didn't look at them.
   85. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5825567)
Given that the NY teams accounted for 41 of the 80 pennant winners between 1921 and 1960 that's not too surprising.


And a good number of them are from the Frisch-Bill Terry era vets committee, which certainly did have a strong NY (Giants at least) bias. Fred Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, High Pockets Kelly, Ross Youngs, Rube Marquard, not sure if Dave Bancroft is one of them.
   86. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5825572)
Looks like I was wrong on 3/16 of questionable HOFers being New York guys.

How much is bias and how much just better teams having better players? As a control group we could look at how many no doubt HOFers from the same time period were NY guys.
   87. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5825574)
Looks like I was wrong on 3/16 of questionable HOFers being New York guys.

How much is bias and how much just better teams having better players? As a control group we could look at how many no doubt HOFers from the same time period were NY guys.


Ziggy is using a higher bar for questionable. Whitey Ford is <55 WAR, I don't think anyone views him as questionable.

Also, given the info in my post [83], I definitely think they had better players.
   88. Walt Davis Posted: March 26, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5825575)
This thread is too long to go through this morning but at least a couple of points:

1. When people talk about pro-NY bias, nobody means the Mets. Not only have the Mets been inept for most of their history but there are essentially no "career Mets."

2. The question is a bit difficult to answer (due to limited data basically). The way that lower-level guys like Mattingly and Munson were able to stay on the ballot for full runs does suggest there's a bump ... but the actual Yankee electees have all been pretty much no-doubters. That is, to matter for election, you'd need to find a guy who maybe would have taken several votes who sailed in. The only possible candidate here is Whitey Ford. The best "no way there's a bias" example is probably Joe Gordon.

3. But sure, if there is a pro-Yankee bias, it's hard to see how it could be more than 5-10% which will almost never matter for actual eventual election and will only matter either in terms of ease of election or hanging around on the ballot "too long." Neither of those matter a lot in the grand scheme of things and both are so randomly/arbitrarily/contextually (e.g. strength of ballot) determined that you'll never identify a clear pattern.

4. Which is not to deny that Anderson would have been a bigger deal if he'd spent his career with the Yanks but not enough to get him anywhere close to the HoF. We are talking a player worse than Randolph, Bernie, Rizzuto, Munson, etc. At best he'd be the black Paul O'Neill. It's just a bit of homerism on Moreno's part to push Anderson as a candidate. And where's the harm in that? It's not like a VC is ever gonna elect somebody like this. :-)
   89. bfan Posted: March 26, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5825582)
And where's the harm in that


I guess harm would be, if you are being a homer, pushing Garret Anderson, who has virtually no merit, instead of Bobby Grich (who most certainly would go in as an Angel), and who has much merit, thus reducing any credibility you might have.

Now, in the grand scheme of things, maybe Mr. Moreno has very little influence on anything or any credibility when it comes to baseball excellence matters, so yes there is no harm, but him saying something terribly idiotic like that would certainly bother me, if I was a long time Angels fan.

If a Braves fan complains that they cannot see why Chipper Jones is in the HOF and yet they kept out Jeff Blauser, that would give me a head-ache, for starters.
   90. Srul Itza Posted: March 26, 2019 at 06:53 PM (#5825587)
Just a word for Joe Gordon.

He put up 57 WAR, despite losing two years to the WAR.

Sold Peak WAR years: 8.2, 7.0, 6.8, 6.6, 6.3, 5.8, 5.2

Second base man with a 120 OPS+

Elected by Vets Committee in 2009.

There are plenty in the Hall with more questionable credentials.
   91. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 06:56 PM (#5825588)
Just a word for Joe Gordon.


Gordon is a slam-dunk HoFer. I've only seen him cited here as evidence against NY bias.
   92. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5825589)
Yeah. Gordon is an almost exact contemporary of Bobby Doerr. he put up 6 more WAR, despite missing an extra year to the war. In 1944 when Gordon was in the military, Doerr had his best season. Doerr was selected by the vets 23 years before Gordon.
   93. Srul Itza Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:39 PM (#5825597)
Gordon is a slam-dunk HoFer. I've only seen him cited here as evidence against NY bias
.

Maybe I misread this:


there is is a bias towards players from great teams. And those teams are disproportionately Yankee teams. Thus: Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Joe Gordon,



   94. Rally Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:01 PM (#5825599)
Gordon is a lot like Bobby Grich, power hitting 2B with gold glove defense. Eventually got his due, hope Bobby does too.
   95. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:17 PM (#5825605)
no one here think Hunter is a hall of famer.


I do. maybe it helps to be old enough to remember his whole career.

he went 146-78 in his 7-year prime, with 5 consecutive seasons of 21+ wins and averaging close to 300 IP per season.

he went 7-1 in the postseason while the A's won the 1972, 1973, and 1974 World Series.

then he leaves as one of baseball's first free agents and goes to the Yankees and wins 23 games in a league-leading 328 IP.

Catfish was as much a fabric of 1970s baseball as any player was. you can't begin to tell the story of the decade without him. and yeah, he had a cool moustache and he pitched a perfect game that was the first in the AL regular season in 46 years.

I'm a HOM voter from day one (I even cast the first ballot, as it happened) and haven't missed an election. not once have I ever put Catfish on one of my 15 HOM annual ballot slots. I'm not sure if anyone ever has, which would be fine by me.

but geesh, this is the Hall of Fame. they have a museum up in Cooperstown, NY and everything. people who love baseball go there. they want to see remembrances of great players who had a tremendous impact on the sport. hello, Catfish.

   96. QLE Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:22 PM (#5825606)
To engage in an intervention in this thread:

It seems to me that there are three things we really ought to tease out when we are discussing this subject.

The first is what we mean by charging a "New York bias". Is it a specific charge of bias towards the Yankees, or a more general issue involving all the New York-based baseball teams?

The second is who is responsible. Is this a charge against the HOF as some nebulous entity? Is it the various VCs that are at issue? Are we denouncing the BBWAA?

The third involves the historic time frame of this charge. Is this an ongoing and continuous issue? Are we discussing a historic problem? How much has this changed over time, and, if it has changed, why?

It seems to me that there will be limitations to this discussion until we have an idea what answers we have to these questions- as long as we don't, there's nothing stopping anyone from moving the goallines to wherever they want them to be.
   97. SoSH U at work Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:45 PM (#5825610)
I've always felt there was both a pro and anti NY bias.


The large contingent of New York writers probably allowed Mattingly to hang on for 15 ballots when he might he not have had he played somewhere else.

On the other hand, many people outside New York don't like New York. So perhaps some other guys who could have had decent showings (Nettles, Randolph, Posada, Williams) didn't get much traction at all.

Obviously there are a of factors (team success, the role of the individual on his teams, nature of his case, etc.), but I see no reason to think that both types of biases can be at play.

   98. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 26, 2019 at 09:26 PM (#5825617)
I'm a HOM voter from day one (I even cast the first ballot, as it happened) and haven't missed an election. not once have I ever put Catfish on one of my 15 HOM annual ballot slots. I'm not sure if anyone ever has, which would be fine by me.

but geesh, this is the Hall of Fame. they have a museum up in Cooperstown, NY and everything. people who love baseball go there. they want to see remembrances of great players who had a tremendous impact on the sport. hello, Catfish.


Howie, your entire comment makes a very good HoF case for Hunter. The problem is that a big percentage of people who post here have never accepted the difference between the HoF and the HoM. Not much you can say to them at this point other than YMMV.

To the extent there's bias, it's mostly against outstanding players with no single neon lit skill. Players like Grich, Dwight Evans, Nettles, Randolph and Whitaker. The flip side of that is a slight bias towards players who briefly lit up the game in a way it was impossible not to notice. Players like Mattingly and Maris. But as others have pointed out, neither of them ever got close to actual induction.

As for a pro-NY bias in HoF selections, nearly all of that can be attributed to the Veterans Committee, and that's benefited Cardinals as much as it's helped Giants. The only VC-elected Yankees have been Gordon, Rizzuto, Lazzeri, Combs and Hoyt. The first three are perfectly defendable choices, and the last two were elected 49 and 50 years ago.
   99. QLE Posted: March 27, 2019 at 03:27 AM (#5825650)
And now, responding to various claims made here:

His career numbers come up short


Not necessarily, given that Munson was a catcher- his peak is about that of Ted Simmons, who nearly was inducted into the HOF the last time he was up for a vote and might go in this coming year, and it's better than either Bill Dickey or Gabby Hartnett, who are reasonably uncontroversial HOFers.

I'm always interested in trying to figure out if a person who says things like Moreno did are really, really stupid - or just bullshit artists pandering to their fans.


The fact that it's looking increasingly likely that Mike Trout may never appear in the playoffs again would seem to answer that question.

It got the 37th-best 1B by JAWS over 60% of the vote on the writers' ballot several times, as well as nine of a possible sixteen votes from the 2011 Golden Era committee.


The guy at 33rd by JAWS at 1B had a basically-identical peak, isn't really better by career WAR totals when you remember differential season length, and never played in New York- and he peaked at 73.5% with the BBWAA and was inducted by the VC on the first chance they got.

No, but they were (at least in part) when they awarded Howard and Mattingly MVP awards in seasons where neither was among the top five players in his league.


Phrasing it this way seems to be deliberately ignoring that Elston Howard was a catcher- given that they have roughly 80% of the plate appearances, it is generally considered unduly harsh to judge them by the same standards as other position players. Once a positional adjustment occurs, he's roughly equal with Yaz, and the three players ahead of him are two pitchers who cross the line by WAR by being OK hitters (Camilo Pascual and Gary Peters) and an outfielder whose WAR totals rely on you believing that he had a outstanding year in right field (Bob Allison). Given all that, Howard's not a ridiculous candidate.

Clearly, the writers' hand was forced.


Not sure this point is as effective as you think it is- the Armas examples demonstrates that being the league leader in RBIs (and, to be fair, HR as well) could get a barely-above-average player on a team that finished fourth in its division a seventh-place finish in the MVP vote. That suggests that RBI had a lot of power, not none at all.

Wilson is in the Hall because the Veterans' Committee put him in, and Maris's top three vote %s from the writers were all better than Wilson's best.


The ballot situations facing the two of them weren't the same- Wilson was on the overstuffed ballots of the 1950s which had scores of players who were either better than him or roughly equal, while the ballots Maris surged on were ones in the mid-to-late 1980s that, firstly, were fairly mediocre to begin with, and, secondly, had as their best players ones that the BBWAA, for the most part, had absolutely no interest in (whereas the 1950s folk seemed to be trying to elect the best players given the state of their statistical knowledge).

He was also given a ton of "extra credit" for what was perceived at the time as very strong personal character.


It also should be noted that, given credit for the strike, he wasn't that far off from being deserving in peak terms- one more year of all-star level play would have gotten him over that line.

A disproportionate number of teams, and media members, in NY.


And the latter cannot be underestimated in its importance- as late as the mid-1960s, there were still six daily newspapers operating out of New York City, and there had been nine or so (plus the Brooklyn Daily Eagle) in the late 1940s.

Dazzy Vance (*)
John Montgomery Ward (*)


Dazzy Vance had a dazzling career in spite of a really late start, and Ward is in the HOF for a whole lot more than his pitching. Neither is a really good example for whatever you are trying to argue (especially given that Ward's great years as a pitcher weren't in NYC).

see, for example, 1981, when two Yankees finished in the top 10 in MVP voting with the 22nd- and 24th-best WAR totals in the league.


With #24, that simply demonstrates that the BBWAA voters of the early 1980s overrated relievers even more than they do now (look at who the MVP was, for instance). As for #22, a good hunk of that is an electorate that didn't recognize said player's defensive weaknesses or the problems with his inability to draw walks, but were unduly impressed that his team made it to the World Series the year he joined it.

What I and others have argued, is that the claim that he was itinerant and unknown before coming to NY is ridiculous.


Similarly, the bouncing around with Gossage is less "itinerant and unknown" than "player heading towards end of career signing with whoever would pay him and having notoriety enough to have this last awhile"- would we argue that the last eight or so years of Rickey Henderson's career meant that he was itinerant and unknown?
   100. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 27, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5825721)
His career numbers come up short

Not necessarily, given that Munson was a catcher- his peak is about that of Ted Simmons, who nearly was inducted into the HOF the last time he was up for a vote and might go in this coming year, and it's better than either Bill Dickey or Gabby Hartnett, who are reasonably uncontroversial HOFers.

That supports my point was that Munson had at least an arguable case, yet still got no NY bump. I wasn't trying to lay out the full case for him. I agree he has a strong peak but my comment was about his career numbers. Even for a catcher, 1,558 hits and 113 HRs is low for the HOF. But his career was cut short at 32.

Munson was before my time, but looking back it's strange that he didn't get more of a NY groundswell for HOF support. Was he not liked by the press? That would be at odds with him becoming the team's first captain since Gehrig.
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