Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Noble: Tom Seaver expects Derek Jeter to become first unanimous Hall of Fame inductee

Lyme disease. Just horrible.

But while his Hall of Fame standing has brought him unique acclaim and been so fulfilling, he is quite willing to be displaced atop the list—so long as his replacement is the right player.

Derek Jeter is the right player.

Seaver says so. Moreover, he believes the Yankees captain ought to be the first unanimously elected Hall of Famer.

“I can’t see how he won’t be,” Seaver said on Wednesday from his home/vineyard in Calistoga, Calif., “unless somebody beats him to the punch.”

Not likely. If DiMaggio, Aaron, Gibson, Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Ruth, Gehrig, Maddux, Cal, Gwynn, Killer, The Big Train, Spahnie, Stan the Man, Yogi, Tyrus Raymond, Nolie, Lefty Grove, The Rajah, Clemente, Rapid Robert, Greenberg, Foxx and Mr. Theodore Ballgame were not unanimously elected, who’s to say anyone ever will be?

Seaver is.

“I’ve thought about it; Jeter should be the one,” Seaver said. “What can you say he hasn’t done? He has every credential imaginable—great player, good citizen. He plays the game properly, respects the game and his predecessors. He’s done it in the big city, for one team that wears a uniform of greatness. He has no marks against him. He has the numbers. And he wins.

“He’s a class act all the way. A pro’s pro, a gentleman’s gentleman. If you’re starting a franchise, who do want as your first pick? I’ll take Jeter, thank you. And I’m sure I wouldn’t get too many arguments.”

Repoz Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:03 PM | 96 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Howie Menckel Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:24 PM (#4757248)
the more interesting question is - in what year of Jeter's career, if you were starting a franchise and were only competing for other shortstops in an annual redraft, would you ever have taken Jeter with the first SS pick, in real baseball not fantasy (baseball or otherwise) terms?

seems like more of a fair fight, and he might get some support as the first pick?

the Seaver version is bizarre, obviously. Griffey, Schmiffey....

   2. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4757253)
the more interesting question is - in what year of Jeter's career, if you were starting a franchise and were only competing for other shortstops in an annual redraft, would you ever have taken Jeter with the first SS pick, in real baseball not fantasy (baseball or otherwise) terms?


I guess I don't understand the question. Early in Jeter's career you'd clearly have taken ARod over him, and (less clearly) maybe Garciaparra. For starters.
   3. Textbook Editor Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4757254)
He's not getting 100% of the vote. It's just not going to happen.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4757255)
There is no way anyone is going to be unanimous, and Jeter definitely. Someone who is voting for the steroid guys will fill out a ten man ballot and say something like. "I would have voted for Jeter if I had more room, but my ballot was overcrowded with worthy candidates."
   5. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:31 PM (#4757256)
Yeah, we go through this every time. He's not getting 100% of the vote. It's over.
   6. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:34 PM (#4757259)
It's hilarious though that Tom Seaver, knowing that he himself was left off of 5 ballots for no good reason, can't see that.
   7. JJ1986 Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:36 PM (#4757260)
I was certain that Mo Rivera was going to be the first unanimous inductee.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:39 PM (#4757261)
#1 - do you mean with foreknowledge or without?

Without knowing how things turned out, I think it would be ARod straight through from 1996 until Hanley Ramirez starts hitting .330/.400/.550 in 2007 or 2008. Then I think you take Tulowitzki after Hanley stumbles. There might have been a year or two where Nomar looked pretty tempting.

So no, I don't think I would have ever taken Jeter.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:41 PM (#4757262)
Very unlikely that anyone gets 100% any time soon, for reasons that have been discussed before, but it doesn't really matter. 1st ballot matters, but beyond that, not many folks focus on the precise percentage a Hall of Famer receives. A lot depends on how "crowded" the ballot is in the year in question, too. That said, Jeter probably gets well above 90%, although I wouldn't necessarily predict a record-breaking vote.


   10. cardsfanboy Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:43 PM (#4757265)
I was certain that Mo Rivera was going to be the first unanimous inductee.


He wasn't even remotely going to get a unanimous induction, too many old timers who won't give it to a reliever, especially on a first ballot. If he breaks 90% on the first ballot that will be an accomplishment.
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:46 PM (#4757266)
well, I tried to give the old fella a chance by making the challenge less daunting, but yeah, I guess we'd need to game it even further.

plus even if you factor in postseason, A-Rod crushed Jeter in a big way there thru 2004, in 103 A-Rod postseason AB. but after 2003, at least A-Rod departs the "pick a SS" conversation.


   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:48 PM (#4757268)
Ichiro will be the first unanimously elected player...if he wants to be.

I was certain that Mo Rivera was going to be the first unanimous inductee.


Huh, I thought we weren't supporting part time players like Mo and Edgar?
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:54 PM (#4757270)
how is tom doing by the way? i thought he was battling some kind of memory issue?
   14. JJ1986 Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:57 PM (#4757272)
how is tom doing by the way? i thought he was battling some kind of memory issue?


He had Lyme Disease that was undiagnosed for a long time, but I think he's mostly better since they started treating it.
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:58 PM (#4757274)
The more interesting question to me is, would you take Jeter's postseason career or ARod's. And ironically I think it is abundantly clear that you take ARod's. First, as a starting point, the two players have the same postseason OPS: 838 for Jeter and 833 for ARod. Second, in the postseason you're playing short series, so you'd rather have the streaky, all or nothing for the series, hitter. Because when you get the "all" from him you have a better chance of winning it all.

ARod in 2009 had a postseason unlike anything Jeter ever put up, hitting to a 1500 OPS in the ALDS, 1519 in the ALCS, and 973 in the WS, including some very big home runs, 6 HR in all. He essentially carried them through all three rounds and to the championship. Jeter never did anything like that.

The mere suggestion that you want ARod's postseason career over Jeter's will blow the typical sportswriter and Yankee fanboys' heads apart, but it's the correct choice.
   16. BDC Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:00 PM (#4757276)
Jeter's got to be close in 1999, especially because he was more durable that year than Nomar or AROD. But I guess not when subjected to severest scrutiny.
   17. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:03 PM (#4757278)
still one of the best lines by the loathsome Dick Young, when Willie Mays was not a unanimous inductee:
"these guys wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ. After all, he dropped the cross three times"
   18. Into the Void Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:06 PM (#4757279)
I'll take class over OPS every day of the week.
   19. PreservedFish Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4757283)
But I guess not when subjected to severest scrutiny.


ARod was known to be the best defender, and he was the youngest. I think Nomar has a better argument than Jeter does at that time. But probably ARod would have still been the choice.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:18 PM (#4757284)
The more interesting question to me is, would you take Jeter's postseason career or ARod's. And ironically I think it is abundantly clear that you take ARod's.


Now I want someone to look at it game by game and see what would have happened if you swapped results.
   21. bobm Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:53 PM (#4757293)
in what year of Jeter's career, if you were starting a franchise and were only competing for other shortstops in an annual redraft, would you ever have taken Jeter with the first SS pick[?]

No.

                                                                                     
Rk            Player WAR/pos oWAR dWAR Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA   BA  OBP  SLG     Pos
1         Cal Ripken    11.5  9.2  3.4 1991  30 BAL AL 162 717 .323 .374 .566      *6
2       Honus Wagner    11.5 11.4  1.4 1908  34 PIT NL 151 641 .354 .415 .542      *6
3        Robin Yount    10.5  9.8  1.8 1982  26 MIL AL 156 704 .331 .379 .578   *6/HD
4     Alex Rodriguez    10.4  8.9  2.3 2000  24 SEA AL 148 672 .316 .420 .606      *6
5       Lou Boudreau    10.4  8.3  3.0 1948  30 CLE AL 152 676 .355 .453 .534   *6/H2
6        Ernie Banks    10.2  7.8  3.5 1959  28 CHC NL 155 671 .304 .374 .596    *6/H
7       Honus Wagner    10.1  8.7  2.7 1905  31 PIT NL 147 616 .363 .427 .505    *6/7
8         Cal Ripken    10.0  7.6  3.5 1984  23 BAL AL 162 716 .304 .374 .510      *6
9    Rico Petrocelli    10.0  8.4  2.7 1969  26 BOS AL 154 643 .297 .403 .589    *6/5
10    Rogers Hornsby     9.9  7.7  3.5 1917  21 STL NL 145 588 .327 .385 .484    *6/H
11    Alex Rodriguez     9.4  8.5  1.7 1996  20 SEA AL 146 677 .358 .414 .631    *6/H
12       Ernie Banks     9.4  8.6  1.9 1958  27 CHC NL 154 682 .313 .366 .614      *6
13      Terry Turner     9.4  5.2  5.3 1906  25 CLE AL 147 643 .291 .338 .372      *6
14      Honus Wagner     9.3  8.2  2.3 1906  32 PIT NL 142 590 .339 .416 .459   *6/95
15      Arky Vaughan     9.2  9.5  0.7 1935  23 PIT NL 137 609 .385 .491 .607      *6
16      Honus Wagner     9.2  8.2  2.0 1909  35 PIT NL 137 591 .339 .420 .489    *6/7
17      Honus Wagner     8.9  9.7  0.5 1907  33 PIT NL 142 580 .350 .408 .513    *6/3
18    Alex Rodriguez     8.8  8.7  1.0 2002  26 TEX AL 162 725 .300 .392 .623    *6/H
19      Arky Vaughan     8.6  6.7  2.8 1938  26 PIT NL 148 650 .322 .433 .444    *6/H
20    Alex Rodriguez     8.5  7.7  1.7 1998  22 SEA AL 161 748 .310 .360 .560    *6/D
21    Alex Rodriguez     8.4  7.6  1.6 2003  27 TEX AL 161 715 .298 .396 .600   *6/HD
22        Joe Cronin     8.4  6.6  2.7 1930  23 WSH AL 154 686 .346 .422 .513      *6
23    Alex Rodriguez     8.3  9.2 -0.0 2001  25 TEX AL 162 732 .318 .399 .622    *6/D
24     John Valentin     8.3  6.2  3.0 1995  28 BOS AL 135 621 .298 .399 .533    *6/H
25      Honus Wagner     8.3  8.4  0.7 1904  30 PIT NL 132 558 .349 .423 .520 *6/7384
Rk            Player WAR/pos oWAR dWAR Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA   BA  OBP  SLG     Pos
26     Alan Trammell     8.2  8.2  0.9 1987  29 DET AL 151 668 .343 .402 .551    *6/H
27        Cal Ripken     8.2  7.0  2.3 1983  22 BAL AL 162 726 .318 .371 .517      *6
28       Ernie Banks     8.2  7.0  2.2 1955  24 CHC NL 154 646 .295 .345 .596      *6
29      Honus Wagner     8.1  6.2  3.0 1912  38 PIT NL 145 634 .324 .395 .496      *6
30       Derek Jeter     8.0  9.0 -0.2 1999  25 NYY AL 158 739 .349 .438 .552      *6


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/24/2014.

ETA: If you mean in what year was Jeter arguably the best SS, then 1999.
   22. Hank G. Posted: July 24, 2014 at 09:53 PM (#4757294)
Seaver said. “What can you say he hasn’t done?”


Cover a normal shortstop territory?
   23. bobm Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4757302)
                                                                
Rk              Player WAR/pos oWAR dWAR Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA
2       Hanley Ramirez     7.3  7.1  0.9 2009  25 FLA NL 151 652
3          Derek Jeter     6.5  6.2  1.0 2009  35 NYY AL 153 716
4      Troy Tulowitzki     6.5  5.1  2.1 2009  24 COL NL 151 628

5       Hanley Ramirez     6.7  7.1  0.3 2008  24 FLA NL 153 693
6        Jimmy Rollins     5.4  3.6  2.4 2008  29 PHI NL 137 625
7           Jose Reyes     4.8  5.0  0.5 2008  25 NYM NL 159 763
8          Mike Aviles     4.7  3.4  1.8 2008  27 KCR AL 102 441
9           J.J. Hardy     4.7  3.5  2.0 2008  25 MIL NL 146 629
10     Cristian Guzman     4.6  3.4  1.8 2008  30 WSN NL 138 612
11      Jhonny Peralta     3.6  4.0  0.3 2008  26 CLE AL 154 664
12       Yunel Escobar     3.4  2.7  1.4 2008  25 ATL NL 136 587
13       Michael Young     3.0  3.3  0.4 2008  31 TEX AL 155 708
14         Derek Jeter     3.0  3.9 -0.2 2008  34 NYY AL 150 668

15     Troy Tulowitzki     6.8  3.6  3.8 2007  22 COL NL 155 682
16       Jimmy Rollins     6.1  5.6  1.2 2007  28 PHI NL 162 778
17          Jose Reyes     5.1  4.0  1.8 2007  24 NYM NL 160 765
18      Jason Bartlett     4.6  3.1  2.2 2007  27 MIN AL 140 570
19      Hanley Ramirez     4.3  7.1 -2.1 2007  23 FLA NL 154 706
20     Orlando Cabrera     4.2  3.7  1.3 2007  32 LAA AL 155 701
21      Edgar Renteria     4.1  4.3  0.3 2007  30 ATL NL 124 543
22         Derek Jeter     3.9  6.2 -1.5 2007  33 NYY AL 156 714

23      Carlos Guillen     6.0  6.1  0.5 2006  30 DET AL 153 622
24           Bill Hall     5.8  4.2  2.2 2006  26 MIL NL 148 608
25          Jose Reyes     5.8  4.9  1.6 2006  23 NYM NL 153 703
26         Derek Jeter     5.5  7.1 -0.8 2006  32 NYY AL 154 715

27       Rafael Furcal     6.4  3.9  3.2 2005  27 ATL NL 154 689
28       Miguel Tejada     5.9  5.5  1.2 2005  31 BAL AL 162 704
29      Jhonny Peralta     5.1  5.6  0.2 2005  23 CLE AL 141 570
30       Jimmy Rollins     4.9  3.0  2.6 2005  26 PHI NL 158 732
31          Julio Lugo     4.3  4.8  0.3 2005  29 TBD AL 158 690
32        Felipe Lopez     4.2  4.1  0.8 2005  25 CIN NL 148 648
33         Jack Wilson     4.2  0.8  4.1 2005  27 PIT NL 158 639
34         Derek Jeter     3.8  6.5 -1.9 2005  31 NYY AL 159 752

35       Miguel Tejada     7.3  6.8  1.4 2004  30 BAL AL 162 725
36         Jack Wilson     4.8  3.7  1.8 2004  26 PIT NL 157 693
37      Carlos Guillen     4.6  5.8 -0.6 2004  28 DET AL 136 583
38       Jimmy Rollins     4.6  3.7  1.6 2004  25 PHI NL 154 725
39         Derek Jeter     4.2  5.3 -0.4 2004  30 NYY AL 154 721

40      Alex Rodriguez     8.4  7.6  1.6 2003  27 TEX AL 161 715
41   Nomar Garciaparra     6.1  5.5  1.4 2003  29 BOS AL 156 719
42      Edgar Renteria     5.6  5.6  0.6 2003  26 STL NL 157 663
43       Rafael Furcal     4.9  4.1  1.5 2003  25 ATL NL 156 734
44       Miguel Tejada     4.9  5.2  0.5 2003  29 OAK AL 162 703
45       Jose Valentin     4.0  3.0  1.7 2003  33 CHW AL 144 569
46     Orlando Cabrera     3.7  3.4  1.0 2003  28 MON NL 162 691
47         Derek Jeter     3.5  4.8 -0.6 2003  29 NYY AL 119 542

48      Alex Rodriguez     8.8  8.7  1.0 2002  26 TEX AL 162 725
49   Nomar Garciaparra     6.8  5.2  2.4 2002  28 BOS AL 156 693
50       Miguel Tejada     5.6  6.2  0.3 2002  28 OAK AL 162 715
51      David Eckstein     5.2  4.2  1.8 2002  27 ANA AL 152 702
52      Jose Hernandez     4.4  3.3  1.8 2002  32 MIL NL 152 582
53      Edgar Renteria     4.2  3.7  1.3 2002  25 STL NL 152 609
54         Derek Jeter     3.7  5.5 -0.9 2002  28 NYY AL 157 730

55      Alex Rodriguez     8.3  9.2 -0.0 2001  25 TEX AL 162 732
56        Rich Aurilia     6.7  6.3  1.1 2001  29 SFG NL 156 689
57         Derek Jeter     5.2  6.7 -0.8 2001  27 NYY AL 150 686

58      Alex Rodriguez    10.4  8.9  2.3 2000  24 SEA AL 148 672
59   Nomar Garciaparra     7.4  6.6  1.5 2000  26 BOS AL 140 599
60       Jose Valentin     4.9  4.0  1.6 2000  30 CHW AL 144 648
61         Derek Jeter     4.6  6.6 -1.2 2000  26 NYY AL 148 679

62         Derek Jeter     8.0  9.0 -0.2 1999  25 NYY AL 158 739
63   Nomar Garciaparra     6.6  7.2  0.1 1999  25 BOS AL 135 595

64      Alex Rodriguez     8.5  7.7  1.7 1998  22 SEA AL 161 748
65         Derek Jeter     7.5  7.3  1.1 1998  24 NYY AL 149 694

66   Nomar Garciaparra     6.6  5.5  2.0 1997  23 BOS AL 153 734
67      Alex Rodriguez     5.6  6.1  0.4 1997  21 SEA AL 141 638
68            Jay Bell     5.4  4.3  2.0 1997  31 KCR AL 153 660
69         Derek Jeter     4.9  5.2  0.7 1997  23 NYY AL 159 748

70      Alex Rodriguez     9.4  8.5  1.7 1996  20 SEA AL 146 677
71        Barry Larkin     7.2  7.6  0.5 1996  32 CIN NL 152 627
72       Jose Valentin     3.9  2.6  2.1 1996  26 MIL AL 154 628
73          Cal Ripken     3.8  3.3  1.4 1996  35 BAL AL 163 707
74         Derek Jeter     3.3  4.3 -0.2 1996  22 NYY AL 157 654


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/24/2014.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:10 PM (#4757303)
90% of games at SS, at least 300 PA in the season, looking at WAA

In 1996, it's ARod with 7.2 and Larkin with 5.3 and nobody else close. Jeter at 1.1
97: No big winner but Nomar with 5.3. Jeter very good at 2.5 but Bell, Blauser and ARod also beat him.
98: ARod at 6.1, Jeter 5.3, Nomar 4.9, Larkin 3.5
99: Jeter leads at 5.6, Nomar at 4.5, ARod's "bad" year
00: ARod 8.1, Nomar 5.3, Jos Valentin 2.7, Jeter 2.3
01: ARod 5.8 with Aurilia and Guzman also ahead of Jeter
02: ARod 6.3, Nomar 4.4, lots of people beat Jeter 1.3
03: ARod 5.9, Nomar 3.7, lots of people beat Jeter
04: Tejada 4.9, lots of people beat Jeter
05: Furcal 4.4, Tejada 3.4, lots of people beat Jeter
06: Reyes 3.8, Guillen 3.7, Jeter 3.2
07: Tulo 4.8, Rollins 4.0, lots of people beat Jeter
08: Hanley 4.7, Rollins 3.6, lost of people beat Jeter
09: Hanley 5.3, Tulo 4.6, Jeter 4.2
10: Jeter with negative WAA from 2010 on

Of course Jeter's greatness comes from durability and consistency (and ignoring defense). Looking a 3-year windows:

96-98: Jeter 3rd to ARod and Larkin
97-99: Nomar and Jeter in a dead heat (13.7 vs 13.4 ... ARod 12.3)
98-00: ARod, Nomar, Jeter
99-01: Arod, Jeter (not close but Jeter a clear #2)
00-02: ARod in a landslide (20 WAR), Tejada and Jeter in a dead heat around 6.5
01-03: ARod, Nomar, Tejada, Jeter
02-04: Tejada, Nomar, Jeter 5th
03-05: Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Jeter ... Lugo!
04-06: Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Jeter 5th
05-07: Rollins, Furcal, Reyes, Jeter
06-08: Rollins, Hanley, Reyes, Jeter
07-09: Hanley, Tulo, Rollins, Jeter 5th
08-10: Haley, Tulo, Jeter 6th

I would not have guessed that Rollins had a longer streak at the top than Jeter. Just the fortune of not having to compete against ARod and Nomar of course.

Anyway, if you were picking before the 2000 season, you might be able to make a case for Jeter. But it was prett clearly ARod with Jeter vs. Nomar being the tough call. After 00-02, Jeter never better than 4th.

How about for his "career". I'll look at 96-09 to avoid his below-average phase.

From 96-09, Jeter had 36 WAA and 68 WAR

From 96-03, ARod totaled 46 WAA and 64 WAR before the move to 3B.

From 96-09, at least 80% of games at SS and 3000 PA.

Nobody else is close to Jeter over those specific years. Tejada is next at 18 WAA with Rollins and Furcal close behind. Expand the search to 1990 to 2014 and Larkin pops up with 34 WAA and Tulo with 25 and counting through age 29 and Hanley at 20.

So it's still ARod #1 even if you don't count any of his 3B time with Larkin and Tulo making cases as Jeter's equal in his "era." (Larkin had 8 WAA prior to 1990)

Compared to other people's 30s, Jeter's 30s were excellent, especially 30-35. But he was not a GREAT player in those years. Like most players, he accumulated most of his WAR and especially most of his WAA before turning 30.

For the period 1990-2014, for ages 30-35 ... Jeter had 12.9 WAA which is the same as Zobrist who is only 33. It's essentially the same as Helton and Rolen, both considered to be in decline and in 1500 more PA than Rolen. It is however all essentially the same as one of my fave Jeter comps, Tony Gwynn. He's clearly behind Ripken, Sandberg, Utley, Biggio, Larkin and again with about 1400 more PA than Sandberg, 1300 more than Utley, 1000 more than Larkin. Overall he is tied for the 31st most WAA from 30-35 in this time period.

Now obviously WAR/WAA isn't everything and Jeter's requires belief that his defense is as bad as Rfield says. If you look at 30-35, 1990-2014 by oWAR, Jeter is extremely impressive:

Bonds 40 oWAR
Jeter 35
McGwire 35
Edmonds 34
Sheff/Walker/ARod 33

He really was a GREAT hitter for a SS. He wasn't Wagner, he wasn't ARod, he wasn't peak Banks, probably not peak Vaughan but he was great and stayed great into his mid-30s ... well, stayed at SS. :-)

A serious assessment of where Jeter stands all-time among SS and among players is, I think, one of the tougher cases. There is simply no precedent for a SS rated this bad at defense remaining at the position for so long. But of course there are very few precedents for good- and great-hitting SS for their 20s who continued to be really good hitters in their 30s so we can't quite say that he's historically bad defensively. Banks and Yount were moved due to injury, who knows how long they'd have stayed at SS and how bad they'd have become if they'd stayed there.

My belief is that most teams rhroughout history would have moved Jeter in his early 30s ... which is not necessarily the same thing as saying he'd have been moved if those teams faced the Jeter/ARod dilemma. I take some solace that Jeter's 30s dWAR is fairly consistent with that of Banks and Yount and that it's similar to similar-hitting corner players like Gwynn and Raines -- i.e. it's consistent with the sort of player I think Jeter was. But it still doesn't mean those are the more appropriate comps for where Jeter actually sits all-time (among all position players).
   25. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:13 PM (#4757306)
I've always thought the guy who had the best chance was Pete Rose. If he had managed not to be a moron I think he had a puncher's chance. My recollection is the press adored him and he had the hit record...I think he was going to take a swing at it. Man imagine if he had done that THEN the gambling stuff came out, #### Al Gore would have had to invent the internet then just for it to break.

I think Jeter has a realistic shot too. In the end he will come up short for any number of reasons laid out above but if I had to pick a player either active or on an upcoming ballot to make a run at it he is clearly the guy.
   26. Rob_Wood Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:26 PM (#4757315)
My view is that Banks was moved off of shortstop due to poor range due to chronic bad knees. If you want to say that he was moved "due to injury", I will not disagree. But Banks and Yount were too separate cases. Banks and Jeter are similar cases.
   27. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:35 PM (#4757318)
I'd love to see Jeter get a unanimous vote, if for no other reason than to see him break the ice. OTOH if Pedro or Randy Johnson were to get 100% in the upcoming ballot, that'd suit me just as well. The idea of a first ballot boycott is just stupid on many levels.
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:51 PM (#4757328)
Seaver is absolutely right in that Jeter ought to be a unanimous choice. He's an obviously qualified Hall of Famer, and there's no real reason for anyone not to vote for him. (Well, I guess your ballot could be too crowded.)

The thing is, you could say that about lots of guys. Greg Maddux should have been unanimous. Tony Gwynn should have been unanimous. Cal Ripken should have been unanimous. There was no excuse not to vote for any of them.
   29. alilisd Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4757332)
I'll send a gift basket to any writer who doesn't vote for him.

Man, 28 posts in, I can't believe I made it!
   30. alilisd Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:59 PM (#4757333)
Seaver is better since being diagnosed and beginning treatment, but the disease has impacted his memory. He's happy and making good wine near Calistoga though so I'd say life is good!
   31. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:02 PM (#4757334)
The thing is, you could say that about lots of guys. Greg Maddux should have been unanimous. Tony Gwynn should have been unanimous. Cal Ripken should have been unanimous. There was no excuse not to vote for any of them.


Well, there was one for Maddux. A ballot that contained more than 10 worthy Hall choices and the knowledge that leaving Maddux off had no meaningful downside (and, IIRC, a couple of voters did just that last year), while the others had a greater need for those Yes votes.

There's really no excuse for the other guys (though I suppose a really big Hall voter might argue otherwise).

   32. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:07 PM (#4757337)
I'll take class over OPS every day of the week.


And this is pretty much the only possible "argument" that Jeter is a better player than ARod. (Not that you were making it, but we see it made all the time.) I mean, it has to be, right? Jeter isn't within miles of ARod on WAR, 116-72. That's a difference of 44 WAR. 44 WAR is what Bonds put up over his four monster seasons from 2001-2004.

Even Jeter's oWAR is "only" 95.
   33. BDC Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:10 PM (#4757338)
Ironically, the few who leave Jeter off a ballot may well be contrarians who have studied the deconstruction of his defense in many a BBTF thread :)
   34. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:18 PM (#4757342)
All of that said, obviously Jeter is a great player, a completely deserving Hall of Famer.

Looking at his career, though, you can't help but feel a twinge of disappointment that he didn't post more offensive years like 1999. He was steadily improving as a hitter and in 1999 at the age of 25 put up a 153 OPS+ and it seemed reasonable to hope that he might put up a few more years like that. But he slipped back down to the 125 OPS+ level and never made it back there.

His Captainness aside, would you have traded him for Garciaparra at any point if you're simply projecting the players forward? Garciaparra was a year older, but a better hitter in the late 90s and a better fielder. I'd have bet on Garciaparra to be the better player going forward -- and I'd have been wrong -- but it was probably a situation where you don't trade one for the other or vice versa. Certainly the timing was never quite right, because you don't trade Jeter coming off of Jeter's 1999 season (coincidentally Garciaparra posted the exact same 153 OPS+ that year), and even in 2000 it doesn't make sense, and then Garciaparra gets hurt and the issue is moot.

   35. jobu Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:24 PM (#4757344)
The thing is, you could say that about lots of guys. Greg Maddux should have been unanimous. Tony Gwynn should have been unanimous. Cal Ripken should have been unanimous. There was no excuse not to vote for any of them.


Or Tom Seaver, for heaven's sake. Great player, good citizen, plays the game properly, etc., etc. Handsome, articulate, made his bones in a major media market. Led the Mets to glory. Doesn't lose the racist idiot vote. There was NOTHING not to like about Tom Seaver's candidacy, which is why he got the % that he did. There will never be a unanimous candidate.
   36. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:27 PM (#4757347)
Here's Baseball Prospectus's comment about Jeter before his rookie year of 1996, which is sort of humorous because they say "twenty years from now, people will be arguing over whether or not he or Rodriguez was a better player," and here it is 20 years later and we're arguing... well, not quite. Not a bad stab at it from BP, though.

Another young turk shortstop, and most definitely the real thing. Does everything well except walk, and he's shown flashes of doing that for a few weeks at a time. Will win an AL batting title right around the turn of the century or so, and twenty years from now, people will be arguing over whether or not he or Rodriguez was a better player. Supposedly has a problem making the long throw from the hole to first, but who cares, and how much of problem is that anyway? I've seen him make that throw, and I don't see an appreciable difference between his arm and a dozen other shortstops.


They almost got the turn of the century batting title thing right, even. Except although he hit .349 in 1999 he finished second in BA to... Garciaparra (.357).

He walked more than they seem to have expected.
   37. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:34 PM (#4757350)
BP before 1997. Interesting they say that his defense was questioned as early as his time in the minors. And yet even then he wasn't moved off of the position:

Impressive debut, overshadowed by the historic season of Alex Rodriguez. Jeter hit a little better than expected and his defense, questioned in the minors, was steady all year. Odd development during the year: he hit .277 with a good walk rate and very little power in the first half, .350 with more power but few walks in the second. I expect him to keep the average and power, improve the strikeout and walk numbers and be a great player. Idle thought: could a Rickey Henderson/Tim Raines thing develop between Rodriguez and Jeter?
   38. Hank G. Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:40 PM (#4757353)
I'll take class over OPS every day of the week.


Well, if it’s Saturday night and the issue is who is going to date your daughter, I agree with you. If it’s baseball, any day of the week, I’ll take the OPS, thank you.

Besides, how well do we really know any player? At the time he was forced to retire, virtually everyone thought that Kirby Puckett epitomized class. Not that I think there is a skeleton in Jeter’s closet, but you can actually measure OPS.
   39. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:43 PM (#4757354)
Seaver is absolutely right in that Jeter ought to be a unanimous choice. He's an obviously qualified Hall of Famer, and there's no real reason for anyone not to vote for him. (Well, I guess your ballot could be too crowded.)

The thing is, you could say that about lots of guys. Greg Maddux should have been unanimous. Tony Gwynn should have been unanimous. Cal Ripken should have been unanimous. There was no excuse not to vote for any of them.


Sure there wasn't, but since those three (and Babe Ruth, and plenty of others) are already in, why not Pedro or Randy or Jeter? I'd just like someone to break the ice.
   40. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:49 PM (#4757356)
I thought it was pretty clear there have always been voters who simply won't vote for anyone on the first ballot, ever. So I'll have to see a player get voted in unanimously before I believe it.
   41. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:51 PM (#4757357)
Note that even before the 1998 season analysts were questioning Jeter's defense. BP:

[Before 1998:] We’ve been very critical of his defense, so we should note that his range factor and Defensive Index are both average to slightly below. He didn’t make the great leap forward offensively, but improved marginally in most areas while staying healthy. He’ll be a reasonable MVP candidate a couple of times in the next six years.


[Before 1999:] Took the big step forward this year; the Brosius signing means he won't be moving to third base anytime soon, but his defense at shortstop warrants the discussion at least. He has excellent hands and a strong arm, but isn't anything special on the pivot, and seems to struggle going to his left. The arm hides some of this. Jeter could improve the same way Ken Griffey, whose defense was overrated for many years, did. Even with a below-average glove, Jeter is a special player.


   42. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:56 PM (#4757359)
Re Garciaparra, before 2000:

Batting champion, cornerstone of the offense, one of the best players in the league...and still getting better. ... His defensive reputation is seriously inflated in Boston, but he's still neck-and-neck with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for the title of best shortstop in baseball heading into 2000.
   43. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:56 PM (#4757360)
I thought it was pretty clear there have always been voters who simply won't vote for anyone on the first ballot, ever. So I'll have to see a player get voted in unanimously before I believe it.

Same here, but hopefully those voters will eventually die off and not be replaced by equally stupid creatures.
   44. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:12 AM (#4757362)
I'm actually not certain I would vote for Jeter next year if he were eligible. He's qualified, but not overwhelmingly so after you ding him for defense, and there's a hell of a crowd on the ballot right now. There may currently be 10 better qualified players on it. I don't know; I'll have to look when I get a chance.

Whether that will still be true five years down the road, I don't know.

EDIT: An embarrassingly quick glance at some WAR numbers suggests that yeah, he'd be in the top ten.
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:20 AM (#4757366)
It would be a silly Baseball Hall of Fame that doesn't elect Derek Jeter immediately (after 5 years).

If you are chronicling the story lines of the sport, and want people to pay to attend this site, why delay his entry?
   46. jayjay Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:07 AM (#4757377)
If he breaks 90% on the first ballot that will be an accomplishment.
75% will be an accomplishment.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:19 AM (#4757384)
My view is that Banks was moved off of shortstop due to poor range due to chronic bad knees. If you want to say that he was moved "due to injury", I will not disagree. But Banks and Yount were too separate cases. Banks and Jeter are similar cases.

I'm not sure what you mean. On Banks, the Wiki entry is poorly written but ...

n 1961, Banks began having problems with his knee while playing shortstop when moving to his left or right side. It was the same knee he had injured while in the army. After playing in 717 consecutive games, he pulled himself from the Cubs lineup for at least four games, ending his pursuit of the NL consecutive games played streak (895 games) set by Stan Musial.[25] In May, the Cubs announced that Jerry Kindall would replace Banks at shortstop and that Banks would move to left field

That's all kinda accurate but they skip over that he returned to SS in July although he missed another 10 games in July, I assume for the same reason. He was permanently moved to 1B in 62.

On Yount: In 1985, a shoulder problem forced Yount to move to the outfield

If you're trying to make a distinction that Banks's problem was more "degnerative" (due to earlier injury) rather than "new injury" (although Yount missed no time the year before the move), then ... well, OK I guess, I don't really care.

The question I was trying to address is whether Jeter is the only guy allowed to play such bad SS for so long. The straight answer is pretty clearly yes. But we also know that the vast majority of SS can't hit so of course they were removed from SS once they started turning sour. So has any other team actually faced the question of whether to keep their good/great-hitting SS there despite his defensive crapitude.

There are not many SS who ever hit anywhere near as well as Jeter did. Some, like Ripken and Larkin, remained good defenders and stayed there for their careers. ARod was still a good defender but got moved anyway.

So who else could we compare to? Banks and Yount are two good hitting SS move off of the position. However, both players were moved because it was believed by their team's management that physical degeneration meant that they were no longer capable of playing SS. Therefore it is difficult for us to compare those team decisions to Derek Jeter. That is, if Yount and Banks had been healthy but lousy SS, would their teams have still moved them?

I believe Fregosi's move was also injury-related. Nomar kinda fell apart completely in all ways.

There are of course young guys (Julio Franco, BJ Upton) who are moved long before they establish themselves -- a different kettle of fish.

This would be in contrast to someone like Toby Harrah who, as far as I know, was moved off of SS because he was a terrible SS. For a while, it seemed that Hanley Ramirez would be another example of a good-hitting SS moved off of the position because he stunk but then the Dodgers moved him back. Hanley in 5100 PA has 44 oWAR and -4 dWAR. Jeter in his first roughly 5000 PA had 45 oWAR and -2 dWAR. Hanley is in his age 30 season, it will be interesting to see how much longer he sticks at SS.

Basically just how "great" was Jeter. Derek Jeter wasn't a great hitter but he was a great hitter for a SS ... but, as Brock (I think) likes to quip, he wasn't a SS. Are the best comps for Jeter Ripken and Larkin (say) or are they Banks, Yount, Raines, Gwynn? If we had a lot of full-career, good-hitting, crappy-fielding SS, we'd have this worked out already. As near as I can tell, Jeter is the first of his kind. How much credit do we give him for sticking at SS for so long? (Of course if you want to accept the easy answer of letting WAR sort it out, I'm OK with that.)

It's like asking what would have happened if Delgado had stayed at C or teams had allowed Cliff Johnson to catch full-time (-17 Rtot in 149 starts!). Again, I don't think we have any real-world examples and for essentially the same reason as we don't for SS until Jeter.
   48. Rob_Wood Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:04 AM (#4757402)
Maybe I wasn't clear. Robin Yount had a serious shoulder injury and had surgery before the 1985 season. He never had a strong arm and now his arm was definitely well below major league average and George Bamberger worried about that. He installed Ernest Riles at shortstop and moved Yount to the outfield, where his weak arm did not cost the Brewers too much. No doubt, Yount was moved off of shortstop due to a series injury mid-career.

The case of Ernie Banks is a little different. Banks did not suffer a specific serious injury mid-career. His manager moved Banks to the outfield (for a spell in 1961) and then permanently to first base beginning in 1962, because Banks's range became substandard. As Walt says, you can say that Banks's range had become substandard due to his chronic sore knees (just like many if not most aging major leaguers).

My point is that Banks is the parallel for Jeter (not Yount). When Banks's defense became noticeably substandard (and, believe it or not, the Cubs thought they had a budding star in Andre Rodgers) the Cubs manager moved Banks off of shortstop, despite Ernie being a tremendous fan favorite. That is, the only reason that Jeter was not moved off of shortstop many years ago (when it became clear to anyone with two eyes that his defense was substandard) is that his manager(s) did not choose to do so. Not sure where they could have moved Jeter to, since his arm was fairly weak and he did not hit with power.

Anyway, I completely agree with Walt that Jeter is a unique case. No other shortstop was permitted to remain at shortstop for so many years past the point where his defense had become noticeably substandard. The best parallel career in my mind is Ernie Banks who was moved off of shortstop mid-career due to substandard defense and a wrongly-considered budding star as his replacement.

   49. Sunday silence Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:18 AM (#4757403)
The more interesting question to me is, would you take Jeter's postseason career or ARod's. And ironically I think it is abundantly clear that you take ARod's. First, as a starting point, the two players have the same postseason OPS: 838 for Jeter and 833 for ARod. Second, in the postseason you're playing short series, so you'd rather have the streaky, all or nothing for the series, hitter. Because when you get the "all" from him you have a better chance of winning it all.


I would love to hear you expound on this line of reasoning: that a streaky guy is better for your teams chances than a steady guy.
   50. bunyon Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:54 AM (#4757405)
The more interesting question to me is, would you take Jeter's postseason career or ARod's.

It's very early here so when I read this, my first thought was, "RINGZZZ!". I mean, that's usually a poor argument. But if we're specifically talking postseason career, it seems relevant. I'd rather play steady and win than put up huge numbers and lose (or win less). I think using, basically, a single season worth of data collected over two decades is a poor way to judge and, so, go with who won.

However, I had a cup of coffee and I see your point. Yes, would blow most people away to say that but there is a strong argument.


As to the original question, I must be getting old (in the mind). Yes, I'd love someone to break the ice and get 100%.* But if it isn't a truly inner, inner circle player - Maddux would have been a good one. Mostly, I don't want to hear/read what the press will say if Jeter gets 100%, or tops Seaver. Of course Jeter should be in. No reason not to vote for him. Except that we're 70 years into this and many much better players than Jeter didn't get 100%. The first either ought to be someone like a clean Bonds or someone who clearly is in the outer circle, so that it clearly is about something other than ballplaying, maybe a Jack Morris who single handedly disrupts a terrorist attack two months before the vote. Jeter is good enough that 100% will be used as evidence that he's better than players he isn't better than.

Again, that's a pretty crappy line of argument on my part, I realize. But I sort of hope no one does get 100%. It's a nice reminder that no one is perfect.


As to class, and teen daughters, I wouldn't let ARod or Jeter anywhere near any woman I cared about. Maybe Jeter is more classy than Arod on the field but I don't know enough about him to say that off the field. What I do know doesn't sound like a great guy. That goes for lots of celebrities, of course.

* Plus, I don't think it will break the ice in that I doubt that anyone else would approach 100% in the future. If Jeter gets it it will be the comination of a 90% guy getting bloated in overestimation.
   51. vivaelpujols Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:15 AM (#4757409)
Yeah no way Jeter is unanimous if Maddux wasn't Some voters are simply gonna refuse to vote for anyone from the steroid era.

Were there any voters who didn't have a blank ballot who didn't vote for Maddux?
   52. cardsfanboy Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:28 AM (#4757411)
If he breaks 90% on the first ballot that will be an accomplishment.
75% will be an accomplishment.


I assume you are pointing to the 75% because of the fact that is all is need to make the hof.... But the only reliever to make the hof on the first ballot was Dennis eckersley and he got 83%...Obviously Rivera will beat that percentage, but not sure how much beyond that is a reasonable assumption.

My point is that I just do not get why anyone would think Rivera has a remote chance at a 100% selection. Yes if you live in New York of course you would vote that and probably in the AL East, but I just don't see him being remotely automatic for hof among NL voters.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:39 AM (#4757412)
I would love to hear you expound on this line of reasoning: that a streaky guy is better for your teams chances than a steady guy.


Have you ever read Bill James? He actually does a pretty good argument on the merit of that argument.

but for the sake of simplifying it....

Let's say you have a team that is 4 games away from the post season every year... and over the next 10 years you have the option of getting a player who is going to make up half that ground... (which is for those math impaired 20 games)

a consistent player will ensure you miss out on that post season every year by 2 games instead of 4....an erratic player might get you three post season appearances while causing you to miss out by 7 games a few years instead of just 4.

From a gm perspective, looking forward, you always prefer the consistent player... from a real world event, when it comes to evaluating a career player, there is absolutely an argument to be made that if the inconsistency happened to line up with the right seasons it's much better for inconsistency.. Same thing is magnified in the post season.... who cares about the guy who is a .300/.400/.500 regular season guy who performs that same level in the post season, year after year... David Ortiz who some argue is one of the greatest post season guys ever, has had complete and utter stinkers in the post season, but at the same time has also performed awesome enough to ignore those crapitudes. Obviously everyone would love to see a 1.300 ops every time, but that isn't the reality. The reality is Ortiz has a .962 ops in the post season which isn't far off of his career average of .926. But he has sucked 7 out of 16 post season series...but people focus on the success aspect because failure of one player doesn't hurt as much as great success of one player.
   54. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:20 AM (#4757416)
Yeah no way Jeter is unanimous if Maddux wasn't

I dunno, I really think all you guys are underselling the possibility. I do think it's likelier than a lot of you do.

In other news, I think I'm heading to Cooperstown this weekend. I have NEVER BEEN to an induction. Probably going to park 5 or so miles off and ride in on my bike.
   55. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 25, 2014 at 08:30 AM (#4757437)
In other news, I think I'm heading to Cooperstown this weekend. I have NEVER BEEN to an induction. Probably going to park 5 or so miles off and ride in on my bike.


Do it. I went in 2009 for Jim Rice's induction and it was a ton of fun. It's just a total baseball immersion, everyone there is in a party mood, typically fans of the players involved and it a very positive experience which is a nice change from the typical sports radio ########, ESPN "embrace debate" experience.

If you can do it I highly recommend going in on Saturday as well. As great as Induction Sunday is Saturday is possibly better. The whole town is well organized, there are ex-players EVERYWHERE and a tour of the Hall is surprisingly efficient.
   56. Howie Menckel Posted: July 25, 2014 at 08:51 AM (#4757444)

Lassus,
bring the photog girl, and have her take pics if some middle-aged dumbass facepalms it while "running" toward 1st base.

#goodtimes
   57. Busted Flush Posted: July 25, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4757464)
In other news, I think I'm heading to Cooperstown this weekend.

I'm driving in from Chicago to cheer on Frank. I can't wait.

I've been to Cooperstown and the museum before, but if anyone has suggestions on what else to see/do, I'm all ears.
   58. BDC Posted: July 25, 2014 at 09:51 AM (#4757467)
See the Cardiff Giant. I never have, and I regret it.
   59. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM (#4757475)
See the Cardiff Giant. I never have, and I regret it.

Heh. Old news to an upstate native.


I've been to Cooperstown and the museum before, but if anyone has suggestions on what else to see/do, I'm all ears.

1. Drive around the back roads and farms, it's positively gorgeous country
2. James Fenimore Cooper art museum
3. Antiqueing, if it's your thing
4. Glimmerglass opera House
   60. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM (#4757476)
Ironically, the few who leave Jeter off a ballot may well be contrarians who have studied the deconstruction of his defense in many a BBTF thread :)


When Jeter's up for election people like Keith Law should have their HOF ballots. Not saying Keith will do it, but I would not be surprised if some saber guy makes a protest non-vote over his defense. There's also the "nothing can be unanimous" crowd, who left Ripken, Gwynn, Seaver, and all the other no-brainers off their ballots. If Murray Chass keeps voting he won't vote for Jeter if he can't vote for Jack Morris. And of course some of these voters are old enough to just forget Jeter.

From a projection standpoint, knowing what I know in spring 1996, who do I take as first shortstop:

1996 - Larkin. Jeter and A-Rod are still just great prospects. At this point I don't know how great they will be or how soon.
1997-2003 A-Rod until he moves to third
2004-2007 Tejada
2008 Tulo
2009-10 Hanley
2011-present Tulo
   61. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:14 AM (#4757478)
I'll take class over OPS every day of the week.

Well, if it’s Saturday night and the issue is who is going to date your daughter, I agree with you.

Cause the important thing is that your daughter comes home with a gift basket.
   62. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:15 AM (#4757479)
Cooperstown - take a boat tour on Glimmerglass lake. It's about 45 minutes, and the boat has a bar.
   63. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:28 AM (#4757486)
(Otsego Lake)
   64. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:35 AM (#4757490)
I went in 2009 for Jim Rice's induction and it was a ton of fun. It's just a total baseball immersion, everyone there is in a party mood, typically fans of the players involved and it a very positive experience which is a nice change from the typical sports radio ########, ESPN "embrace debate" experience.


So how did your "Rice Isn't Worthy" picket sign go over? (As a BBTF member in good standing, I assume you went in protest.)
   65. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:39 AM (#4757494)
When Jeter's up for election people like Keith Law should have their HOF ballots. Not saying Keith will do it, but I would not be surprised if some saber guy makes a protest non-vote over his defense.

Yeah, that sort of reasoning would sure make for more saber guys being given the vote.
   66. John Northey Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:44 AM (#4757498)
Jeter has one of the best shots of anyone recently. He didn't start his career until the strike was over, viewed as 'clutch' with many highlights in the post-season. Gold gloves (deserved or not) to go with a solid bat most of his career. Big negatives are never winning an MVP (I'm sure some voter requires that) and playing during the steroid era.

Mariano Rivera has a better shot I'd think - accepted as the best closer ever generally, fantastic post-season record, as a closer not expected to win an MVP/Cy Young so that might not cost him. Like Jeter he started part way into 1995 thus not tainted by strikes. Steroids/PED's generally not viewed as an issue for closers (pretty dumb, but the way it is) so might not be as tainted by that.

As to Randy Johnson & Pedro Martinez both have issues (late start for Johnson, short career for Martinez) and were active during the 1994 strike so I don't see either as having a shot at 100% if Maddux couldn't make it.

I suspect guys who started post-Barry Bonds have the best shot at 100% someday, assuming no more strikes occur. It is those 'pox on all their houses' voters that cause the 100% to be impossible so you need someone post-steroid who is a super-star with a good rep across the board - Trout has the best shot at that right now I'd say but he is over a decade away from testing that theory.
   67. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:55 AM (#4757510)
Note that even before the 1998 season analysts were questioning Jeter's defense.


Also my very hazy recollection is that when drafted (He was a 1st rounder) and in the minors his defense was very much considered a work in progress- enough so that even when BA had him as a high ranked prospect they were unsure if he'd play SS in the Majors.

Of course when the Yankees brought him up and installed him at SS, their announcers (and the local beat reporters) portrayed him as a "glove first but we think/hope he'll hit a little kind of guy" which at the time I thought to be bizarre since everything I'd heard about him before that was the opposite (ie., he was going to hit the question was could he play SS)

There's a concept I've seen on some movie review sites, a character is supposed to be really good/uber competent at something, but the actor/stunt double can't really convey/fake having such talent, so the movie gets around that by having other characters assert that Character A is great at something.

From the day Jeter came up, the Yankees announcers and most Yankee beat writers asserted one way or the other that Jeter was a great defensive SS, if he made a good looking play it would be replayed and discussed ad nauseum, if he dinn't make a play, just missed ball a little to his left- silence (crickets) and they really had no push back for years until statheads began discussing PBP data and such- but the MSM was good at dissing such guys, the first time I recall seeing the NYC MSM seriously contemplate the idea that Jeter was not a GREAT defensive player was when AROD came over- and in the middle of pushing back against the non-NYC media impression that AROD was a better defender than Jeter, one reporter talked with a few advance scouts from other teams, and reported (as shocking revelation) that some of these guys didn't think Jeter was "good" at SS let alone "elite" as the NYC media assumed)
   68. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:20 AM (#4757542)
Also my very hazy recollection is that when drafted (He was a 1st rounder) and in the minors his defense was very much considered a work in progress- enough so that even when BA had him as a high ranked prospect they were unsure if he'd play SS in the Majors.


I don't know what was said about his range, but a 56 error season will definitely make people question your ability to stick at the position.
   69. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4757545)
if he dinn't make a play, just missed ball a little to his left


We saw that in the all star game. Replay it 75 times and applaud the effort.
   70. billyshears Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:24 AM (#4757547)
Why should Derek Jeter even have to suffer the indignity of a HoF vote?
   71. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4757550)
Why should Derek Jeter even have to suffer the indignity of a HoF vote?


Do you think there is a non-zero chance that the HOF might actually try to waive the 5-year waiting period for St. Derek?
   72. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4757565)
Do you think there is a non-zero chance that the HOF might actually try to waive the 5-year waiting period for St. Derek?


No. I would bet money that someone will write an article saying it should happen followed by a 600 post thread here but there is no real reason for the Hall to do that. Obviously they've never done it in the past except for Clemente. They also have a benefit here. Why rush him in? Wait the five years, clear out some of the obvious candidates coming forward and Jeter gets the stage to himself and Cooperstown probably gets their largest induction weekend in terms of attendance.
   73. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:25 PM (#4757601)
I thought it was pretty clear there have always been voters who simply won't vote for anyone on the first ballot, ever. So I'll have to see a player get voted in unanimously before I believe it.

Hopefully those voters will eventually die off and not be replaced by equally stupid creatures.


In Tom Seaver's case, more than 20 years ago, there was just one. Of course, it only takes one. Seaver's other four non-votes were three blank Pete Rose protest ballots, and one voter who was recovering from heart surgery and subsequently apologized for filling out his sheet inattentively.

It's worse now than it was then, not better. Until the backlog and bile recede, Greg Maddux (-16) may reflect the general ceiling for an impeccable candidate. Speculating about Jeter's chance of unanimous induction is like wondering whether he'll end his speech by flapping his arms and flying.
   74. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4757612)
the first time I recall seeing the NYC MSM seriously contemplate the idea that Jeter was not a GREAT defensive player was when AROD came over- and in the middle of pushing back against the non-NYC media impression that AROD was a better defender than Jeter, one reporter talked with a few advance scouts from other teams, and reported (as shocking revelation) that some of these guys didn't think Jeter was "good" at SS let alone "elite" as the NYC media assumed)


Yes, this is my general recollection as well, that several years into Jeter's career the MSM suddenly started reporting with shock that there were people (scouts, analysts, "bloggers") who thought his defense was terrible.

It was sort of like that SNL sketch from the late 80s where they're doing a talk show and the host is in real time while one of the guests is 30 seconds ahead and another is 30 seconds behind, and then someone sneezes and ends up with a string of snot hanging out of his nostril and the guy who is 30 seconds ahead starts reacting violently but the host doesn't see it and then finally sees it and the guy 30 seconds behind wonders what everyone is reacting to....

The MSM on the issue of Jeter's defense was the guy 30 seconds behind. Then when they finally got the memo they denied it for years and trashed statgeeks before sort of coming around eventually.
   75. Hank G. Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:13 PM (#4757626)
Obviously they've [HOF] never done it in the past except for Clemente.


They also made an exception for Lou Gehrig, holding a special election in 1939 once they realized that he was dying.
   76. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:14 PM (#4757628)
The MSM on the issue of Jeter's defense was the guy 30 seconds behind. Then when they finally got the memo they denied it for years and trashed statgeeks before sort of coming around eventually.


I don't know if the MSM has actually come around on that. They'd probably just say he's gotten older, dealt with the ankle injury, and has lost a step. He's not quite as great as he once was in the field.
   77. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:24 PM (#4757634)
I've always found it odd that Seaver got the highest % of votes. Obviously he's an all time great, etc., but how did he beat out guys like Mays, Mantle, and Aaron?
   78. jobu Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:51 PM (#4757647)
As to Randy Johnson & Pedro Martinez both have issues (late start for Johnson, short career for Martinez) and were active during the 1994 strike so I don't see either as having a shot at 100% if Maddux couldn't make it


Penalizing Johnson for a late start is unfathomable to me, given that I believe a high percentage of the idiots who would do such a thing would also be beholden to the Wins category. I agree Johnson won't get 100%, but I don't see the late start as being the driver.

I've always found it odd that Seaver got the highest % of votes. Obviously he's an all time great, etc., but how did he beat out guys like Mays, Mantle, and Aaron?


White (Mays and Aaron--I mean, come on, what other reason is there?), wasn't perceived to curtail his own career/squander his talents (Mantle). Plus, I think the data indicates there is a gradual waning of the "I don't vote for anyone on the first ballot" mindset. Of the top 10 vote percentages, Ty Cobb is the only one that occurred before 1980, and Hank Aaron and Johnny Bench are the only other ones before 1990.
   79. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4757657)
Speculating about Jeter's chance of unanimous induction is like wondering whether he'll end his speech by flapping his arms and flying.

I know the chances are microscopic, but if it happens, I expect you to wear Bloom County shirts for at least a week.
   80. villageidiom Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:04 PM (#4757700)
White (Mays and Aaron--I mean, come on, what other reason is there?), wasn't perceived to curtail his own career/squander his talents (Mantle). Plus, I think the data indicates there is a gradual waning of the "I don't vote for anyone on the first ballot" mindset. Of the top 10 vote percentages, Ty Cobb is the only one that occurred before 1980, and Hank Aaron and Johnny Bench are the only other ones before 1990.
Prior to television, BBWAA members were more out-of-touch regarding out-of-town players. And probably more drunk.

Given that only 2 of the 8 NL teams (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and 3 of the AL teams (Detroit, Cleveland, Washington) were in one-team cities, HoF voters in each city probably had ample opportunity to see players from the league they didn't cover. So I'm assuming they were just drunk.
   81. Moeball Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4757707)
In other news, I think I'm heading to Cooperstown this weekend.


I'm driving in from Chicago to cheer on Frank. I can't wait.


I'm guessing Sam's already there, wouldn't you think? With 3 Braves going in, there's no way he would miss out on this, right?
   82. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4757709)
It's hard to imagine a more universally beloved all time great player than Yogi Berra (at least now in his 9th decade, I can't speak to his perception right after his retirement). But Yogi didn't even make it on the first ballot. He got 67% in 1971, then went in with 85%.

Voting patterns were just different then. I would guess if Yogi had been born later and taken Posada's spot among the core 4, he'd go in with about 98 percent on the first ballot.

There are a lot of reasons why people have not voted for even the most flawless candidates on the first ballot. Sure, they are all dumb reasons, but I don't expect the world to run out of dumb anytime soon. I'll go on record and say neither Jeter nor Rivera will get a unanimous vote.
   83. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4757728)
I'm guessing Sam's already there, wouldn't you think? With 3 Braves going in, there's no way he would miss out on this, right?

I don't think so. He's traveling for work, I believe, to points far, far away. I'll be sure to spit on some Braves fans' picnic food in his honor.
   84. cardsfanboy Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4757730)
It's hard to imagine a more universally beloved all time great player than Yogi Berra (at least now in his 9th decade, I can't speak to his perception right after his retirement). But Yogi didn't even make it on the first ballot. He got 67% in 1971, then went in with 85%.

Voting patterns were just different then. I would guess if Yogi had been born later and taken Posada's spot among the core 4, he'd go in with about 98 percent on the first ballot.


Catchers just don't have the career numbers. I don't expect any catcher to surpass Bench's total. But another example of a universally loved player who didn't make it to 100%, would be Stan Musial. 93.2% of votes(2nd place guy was Campanella on his fifth try who finally got in) So there is no argument a divided ballot or anything. You are right the voting patterns were much different then.
   85. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:33 PM (#4757820)
I don't think so. He's traveling for work, I believe, to points far, far away.


Yeah. I'm in Sydney this weekend, flipping the jet lag before a conference next week. So it's already Saturday morning in my world, and I am literally about as far away from Cooperstown as you can get without leaving orbit. I am, however, closer to the HOF than a few of the strikes Glavs got on the outside corner...
   86. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:35 PM (#4757821)
And any voter who votes for Jeter but left Greg Maddux off of their ballot should be publicly garroted.
   87. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:50 PM (#4757829)
Jeter's chance of unanimous induction is like wondering whether he'll end his speech by flapping his arms and flying.

I expect the clouds to open and a ray of divine sunshine to ascend him directly to Heaven.
   88. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:50 PM (#4757857)
I expect the clouds to open and a ray of divine sunshine to ascend him directly to Heaven.


Yep. And on the way in, he'll give St. Peter a gift basket.
   89. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2014 at 08:37 PM (#4758225)
It wasn't just the media ... it was managers and coaches that gave Jeter those 5 GG in his 30s.

And any voter who votes for Jeter but left Greg Maddux off of their ballot should be publicly garroted.

We were all hoping for a good neck-stabbing.
   90. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2014 at 07:14 AM (#4758313)
Current forecast for the entire day in Cooperstaown: isolated thunderstorms.
   91. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 27, 2014 at 07:35 AM (#4758317)
If anyone's still in Cooperstown tomorrow, they should check out Willis Monie Books at 139 Main Street. It's still around, and the last time I was there it had one of the better selections of baseball books this side of a specialty shop.
   92. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2014 at 07:59 AM (#4758323)
I can only assume with the weather today that God is punishing Braves fans for their horrible choices in life. White Sox fans are collateral damage, but hey, they had the DH, so.
   93. Andy McGeady Posted: July 28, 2014 at 07:11 AM (#4758853)
Until the voters can list more than ten names on their ballots the chances of a unanimous Hall of Fame pick are nil.
   94. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:16 AM (#4758859)
And any voter who votes for Jeter but left Greg Maddux off of their ballot should be publicly garroted.

Until the voters can list more than ten names on their ballots the chances of a unanimous Hall of Fame pick are nil.


Combining these two thoughts, a serious voter could be perfectly justified in doing the former, as he wanted to leave room for someone like Raines or Edgar, or someone else who really needed the support. Indeed, IIRC, a gizmo voter did just that.
   95. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:55 AM (#4758899)
Combining these two thoughts, a serious voter could be perfectly justified in doing the former, as he wanted to leave room for someone like Raines or Edgar, or someone else who really needed the support. Indeed, IIRC, a gizmo voter did just that.


Yes, the rules don't ask voters to choose the 10 best candidates, but up to 10 candidates who meet the criteria for election. Leaving off a sure thing to make room for someone who is perceived to need the vote more is within the voting guidelines, and would certainly have been possible in the case of Maddux (particularly considering how many voters maxed out their ballots).
   96. BDC Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4758906)
You could run into trouble with that kind of tactical voting. Everybody will be sure that Jeter is unanimous so instead he'll get 0%.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
HowardMegdal
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(2739 - 5:15pm, Oct 20)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - October 2014
(269 - 5:13pm, Oct 20)
Last: Manny Coon

NewsblogCould the Yankees ever be Royals? Young and athletic K.C. is everything that Bombers are not - NY Daily News
(20 - 5:11pm, Oct 20)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogFan Returns Home Run Ball to Ishikawa; Receives World Series tickets
(9 - 5:10pm, Oct 20)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogWhy Royals great Frank White no longer associates with the team whose stadium he built - Yahoo Sports
(15 - 5:05pm, Oct 20)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogCalcaterra: So, if you’re not a fan of the Royals or Giants, who ya got?
(64 - 5:01pm, Oct 20)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(832 - 4:46pm, Oct 20)
Last: ursus arctos

NewsblogHitting coaches blamed for lack of offense - Sports - The Boston Globe
(11 - 4:28pm, Oct 20)
Last: Zach

NewsblogBrisbee: The 5 worst commercials of the MLB postseason
(121 - 4:26pm, Oct 20)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogMorosi: Could Cain’s story make baseball king of sports world again?
(96 - 4:22pm, Oct 20)
Last: Into the Void

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-20-2014
(37 - 4:22pm, Oct 20)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogBernie Miklasz on Twitter: Matheny, when asked about not using closer T. Rosenthal in 9th
(133 - 3:55pm, Oct 20)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8360 - 3:19pm, Oct 20)
Last: zenbitz

NewsblogCardinals proud of fourth straight NLCS appearance | cardinals.com
(47 - 2:46pm, Oct 20)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1959 Ballot
(5 - 1:58pm, Oct 20)
Last: MrC

Page rendered in 0.9026 seconds
52 querie(s) executed