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Friday, June 16, 2017

Nowadays, Top Draft Picks Almost Always Sign | BaseballAmerica.com

Data and more info at the link.

There should be few nervous moments for teams, draftees or fans leading up to this year’s July 7 draft signing deadline.

Not long ago, it wasn’t unusual for a team to fail to sign a first-, second- or third-rounder. The Blue Jays, for example, did not sign first-rounders Tyler Beede in 2011 or Phil Bickford in 2013. Now, that almost never happens. Most of the top 10-round draft picks will announce deals in the next week or two, and even the few that wait until near July 7 will likely sign a contract as well.

It makes sense. Teams lose their bonus allotment for any top 10-round pick they fail to sign. So before they pick a player, teams generally have a good idea of whether he’ll sign. The few exceptions usually revolve around a post-draft medical examination that finds something that leads the team to reduce its offer.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 16, 2017 at 06:46 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: amateur draft

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 08:36 AM (#5477280)
Teams lose their bonus allotment for any top 10-round pick they fail to sign.

They lose it this year, but they get an adjacent pick and extra money the following year.
   2. Jose is El Absurd Bronson Y Pollo Posted: June 16, 2017 at 08:58 AM (#5477291)
I was going to ask if this was a big change and in fact it is. The chart in the piece shows that unsigned picks in the top ten rounds has dropped from 8% in 2010 to less than 1% last year. I do wonder what the data might look like if you excluded those "signability picks" that teams make to free up money. The article notes that in rounds 11-15 the percentage of unsigned players increased last year so I wonder if the "tough signs" are still signing at a familiar rate just in different rounds.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:06 AM (#5477298)
I was going to ask if this was a big change and in fact it is. The chart in the piece shows that unsigned picks in the top ten rounds has dropped from 8% in 2010 to less than 1% last year. I do wonder what the data might look like if you excluded those "signability picks" that teams make to free up money. The article notes that in rounds 11-15 the percentage of unsigned players increased last year so I wonder if the "tough signs" are still signing at a familiar rate just in different rounds.

What I would guess is happening is that with the new rules it's very hard to buy out a "tough sign". So, there's much less incentive to use a high pick on them. If you can get a guy for a couple of million, you can still do that if you draft him in the 5th rd.
   4. AROM Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:11 AM (#5477301)
Recent teams that failed to sign recent first rounders have made out pretty well on the compensation.

Blue Jays didn't sign Beede - the comp pick turned into Marcus Stroman

Pirates didn't sign Appel, comp pick was Austin Meadows. Hasn't made the bigs yet, but no way would the Pirates swap the two now.

Blue Jays didn't sign Bickford, comp was Max Pentecost. Jury is still out as neither has played above high A, though at least they have played well at those levels.

Astros didn't sign Aiken, comp pick was Alex Bregman
   5. AROM Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5477309)
What I would guess is happening is that with the new rules it's very hard to buy out a "tough sign". So, there's much less incentive to use a high pick on them. If you can get a guy for a couple of million, you can still do that if you draft him in the 5th rd.


I'm sure it's reducing the number of tough signs to start with. Maybe in the past a guy projected to go 5-10 could scare off the small market teams drafting there, and hope the Yankees pick him at 28 and pay him big money. The slot money for 5-10 is in the 5 million range, and for the end of the first round in the 2-2.5 range. Even if a team there can go over slot, you aren't going to get the same money you could get by being picked high.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:24 AM (#5477315)
I'm sure it's reducing the number of tough signs to start with. Maybe in the past a guy projected to go 5-10 could scare off the small market teams drafting there, and hope the Yankees pick him at 28 and pay him big money. The slot money for 5-10 is in the 5 million range, and for the end of the first round in the 2-2.5 range. Even if a team there can go over slot, you aren't going to get the same money you could get by being picked high.

How can that be true? The guys who want to go to/stay in college are still out there. They're just not being picked in the high rounds.

You can give them $2M in the 5th rd. just as easily as in the late 1st (if you manage you draft to achieve that).

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