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1. AROM Posted: October 22, 2008 at 01:59 PM (#2991587)I don't think Matsui-for-Rowand straight up is a good deal because the money is close, but if the Giants threw in a spare piece or two I could see the Yankees going for this
EDIT: okay, I see that the GIANTS are looking for extra pieces. No way.
Rowand has a full NTC and would be really difficult to move. One of the bigger reasons that he signed with the Giants (besides the money) was the close proximity to Las Vegas, where he currently lives.
He's probably, at best, an average defensive CF. Maybe a tick under. Chris Dial's new OPD numbers has his defense right at average (+0.5 runs). Dewan's +/- has Rowand as about -7 runs below average. I will say this, he might have the least accurate throwing arm that I've ever seen in center. He can't hit a cut-off man and half the time he tried to throw home from CF, the ball would end way up the 3B line.
I don't see them close in value at all. I doubt anyone but a staunch Yankee fan would think the Giants would need to throw in extra pieces to complete the deal.
Fixed.
Yes. That's why I want the Yanks to make the trade. This would a sweet move if Cashman could pull it off, I've been hoping he would be able to get rid of Matsui the second they signed him to his ridiculous contract.
you have to take the contracts into consideration: Matsui has one year left for $13 million; Rowand has four years at $8M, $12M, $12M, and $12M. If you're trading for Rowand you have to think about the likelihood of him still being a productive player those last 2-3 years.
Rowand is flippable and will only be 34 at the end of that contract and isn't making all that much. That's slightly more than Gary Matthews Jr. money. And it's the Yankees, this is a perfect opportunity to leverage their financial advantage. Get the better player, who cares about the financial concerns.
the face? I didn't think Rowand had any face left
Trading Rowand for Matsui straight up, would free up payroll for the Giants to spend on other positions, such as SS, 2b, 3b. ATM, OF is probably the strongest area for the Giants. They can move Winn to CF. Lewis looks like he can handle a corner. Schierholtz has had 2 consecutive > 900 OPS seasons at AAA, they really need to find out if he can be a legitimate starter. Matsui can be a temporary stopgap at 1b, though that might block Ishikawa.
At SS, their in house options are the likes of Emmanuel Burris, Brian Bocock, Ivan Ochoa. 2b, add Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez to the mix. None of these guys look like any kind of long term solution with the possible exception of Frandsen at 2b. 3b, they have nothing really, though they are trying their catching prospect, Pablo Sandoval there.
not going to happen - for whatever reason, Matsui won't play first. If he would, the Yankees would have made the switch already.
Does Matsui have a NTC, and thus can block trades to teams that will force him to play 1b? The Giants have little reason to be nice to Matsui. They don't have much of any presence in Japan. If he won't play 1b, they can do to him what the Nationals did to Soriano.
Yes.
and thus can block trades to teams that will force him to play 1b?
I'm fairly certain that Matsui said he would consider a move to 1st for the first time at the end of the season. I think it was part of an organizational bluff to help with the Tex negotiations, but I don't think he's as unwilling as he used to be.
If he won't play 1b, they can do to him what the Nationals did to Soriano.
I very much doubt it would come to that with Matsui. He's got his ego, but he's also got a strong sense of duty to the team he plays for (he held a press conference to apologize for breaking his wrist). The guy is most definitely a team player and I doubt he would pull a stunt like that.
Ah yeah, I know about the wrist thing. That, and the porn collection, is one of the reasons why I've always liked Matsui.
Rowand will be 35 at the end of the contract. And I don't see how he is flippable... that is a straight up bad contract. He's a passable defensive CF at the moment, but by no means an elite one. He doesn't run particularly well anymore and he's not proficient at getting on-base. I fail to see how he is going to improve on any of those aspects of his game as he reaches his mid-30s. Since becoming a regular in 2003, Rowand has had two excellent seasons ('03 and '07) and three pretty blah seasons. I don't see how he does anything to help the Yankees in 2009. If they are convinced Melky can't play, just move Damon back to CF for a season... worst case scenario he'd be -10 runs on D, while certainly giving you more with the bat than you could hope for from Rowand.
I just don't see that at all. Rowand is a very inconsistent player, but even in his worst seasons he's probably an average centerfielder -- good defense, OPS+ around 90. In his good seasons he's a deserving All-Star. And he's got four years to go at $11 million a season... that's entirely reasonable.
If the Giants do decide they want to trade Rowand, they won't have any trouble getting offers. I'd love to see the Rockies offer Garrett Atkins for him.
I'm not sure about that. The last I saw was that the average CF had an OPS+ of 99. The defensive numbers quoted in this thread have him being average-ish in that category too. I don't really get why anybody would think Rowand was a real asset at $12 mill per. He seems closer to a liability.
How do you figure ? His +/- is plays, not runs.
2008 -9 ranked 24th
2007 -4 ranked 24th
2006 -11 ranked 30th
In any case, he appears to be below average and extremely overrated.
His wOBA the last 4 years
2008-.319
2007-.380
2006-.318
2005-.322
And Rowand had a .139 ISO and a .332 BABIP in 2008. Thats as good as it gets. He is a poor bet to even repeat 2008 numbers, which aren't that good to begin with.
What a horrible freaking contract. Including the second half of his signing bonus he is still owed 48 million over the next 4 years, and has a partial no trade clause. All this for a below average player who had a fluke year in 2007. If the Yankees are stupid enough to make this trade, Sabean should do it in a heartbeat. With Matsui only having one year left at 13 million on his contract, whatever the Giants get out of him would be a bonus, because ultimately the Giants would be saving over 30 million dollars.
I don't think it's about Matsui. I think the Yankees want a true CF they feel they can rely on. Also, I would assume Rowand is much more highly thought of in many "insider" circles than in "stathad" circles.
In baseball years, he'll be 34, just like he was 30 this year on his BBref page.
And I don't see how he is flippable... that is a straight up bad contract
How is that a bad contract? 11 mil per year for 4 years. It'll be 3 for 36 next year, or 3 million less than what Jose Guillen signed for last offseason. For a guy who if he hits well, is an All-Star and if he doesn't, is an average CFer. That is most certainly flippable.
he's not proficient at getting on-base.
He's got a career .342 OBP, compared to a .341 for the league. His OBP was exactly average last year.
Since becoming a regular in 2003, Rowand has had two excellent seasons ('03 and '07) and three pretty blah seasons.
Blah in this case means above or around league average.
I don't see how he does anything to help the Yankees in 2009. If they are convinced Melky can't play, just move Damon back to CF for a season... worst case scenario he'd be -10 runs on D, while certainly giving you more with the bat than you could hope for from Rowand.
Well, it appears you're not very familiar with the Yankee OF. Matsui can not play left, he is a DH. Damon can not play center, he's LFer and he becomes fatigued much quicker these days when they run him out in center. Damon, range + arm is almost certainly worse than -10. Matsui would be something like -20 in LF. Put in Rowand and it strengthens the OF defense. He also gives the Yanks a bat in center that could potentially have some upside, certainly more than Melky does. So he adds defense, flexibility, offense at center and offensive upside at center to the Yankees, all while helping they them unload some salary for the upcoming season. He's also clearly better than Matsui, so even if he's not particularly useful, he upgrades the talent on the team.
This is suggested in TFA, too, and I don't understand it. Granted, Matsui is creaky and bad knees are a good indicator of forthcoming trips to the DL, but it's not like Rowand has never been there. Matsui had a pretty long consecutive game streak and will play any time he's asked as long as he can hold a glove on his arm and walk onto the field.
It was just 2006 that Rowand had two different stints on the DL. Matsui may be a slightly more risky player health wise, but I don't think the difference between them is that vast. Rowand is running out of bones to break.
I haven't looked at the numbers, but you'll never convince me those guys are comparable defenders. Matsui is atrociously bad in LF... he really has no business doing anything more than spot duty in the OF. Plus he's older, more expensive, and less durable than Nady.
This is Sabean. He's probably asking for Bernie Williams :)
If you multiple his +/- by 0.8 it will give you the approximate run value.
-9*.08= -7.2 runs
-9*.08= -7.2 runs
.08 or .8? If it's really .08, that's -.72.
I know it's likely just randomness and selective endpoints, but did Rowand or the Giants offer a reason?
For a rule of thumb I use these:
0.75 middle infield - all plays not made are singles, if not all then 99%.
0.80 corner infield - plays not made down the lines are doubles.
0.85 outfield - many plays not made are extra base hits.
Rowand is better on the STATS, inc. ratings. I think UZR has him as a very good fielder. I don't know which is right, both are good systems so I'd call him an average defensive CF.
You're joking here, right? "Baseball years" was adopted for simplicity, so you could say Player X is entering their age 34 season, suggesting he'd be a certain age for more than half that season (hence the July cutoff). With an August 1977 birthday, Rowand will turn 35 during this contract. Hence, he will not be 34 years old in any human sense. Are you arguing an arbitrary classification cutoff against his real life, actual age?
His careeer OBP is heavily skewed by two excellent years, as I implied in my previous post. His OBP in the last five years has been .361, .329, .321, .374, .339. Thus, he's been wildly inconsistent and any reasonable logic would suggest that entering his decline years, he is more than likely to replicate the down years. I don't doubt that he could be decent for another year or two (OPS+ ~90), but for a player who strikes out a ton and walks relatively little, his offensive productivity is heavily tied to maintaining a high batting average. When he's hitting ~.310, as he's done exactly twice in his career, that's just peachy. However, when he hits .260-.270, his OBP is ugly and his SLG% decreases proportionally. This isn't a guy who is going to age well, as his bat speed decreases. To a team that spends as much as the Yankees, the contract isn't a big deal now... but it would be when Rowand isn't productive in 2-3 years.
Nah, I am actually quite familiar with the Yankees outfield. In SSS of 700 innings in CF between '07 and '08, Damon had a respectable .928 RZR with 31 out of zone plays. He still moves extremely well and has played a passable CF in limited time in the last two seasons... He'd certainly be below average over 130-140 starts out there, but range would not be the problem. Rowand, in his own right, is an average fielder at best. Damon is clearly the better hitter, so my contention was it would be a virtual wash between the two... with one player expiring at seasons end and the other burdening payroll for an additional three. What the hell do you do with Rowand for 2010-2012? His bat certainly doesn't carry a corner, especially for a team that could easily have a payroll approaching $250 bills.
I'll take that back. Rowand is likely headed for decline. As bad as he was this past year and a half, Melky is probably a better bet over the next 4 years, and certainly a better bargain.
Not that the Yankees need bargains, but they would be much better off not bloating the payroll with mediocre 10-12 million types and pouncing on the 20+ million superstars when available, and not passing next time a Carlos Beltran type becomes available.
Thanks, but credit should go to Chris Dial's zone rating article a few years back. The difference is Chris uses 4 digit precision and will tell you a play saved by SS is worth .7481 and 2B is .7512 or something like that.
His numbers are more precise. Mine are close enough, and easy to remember.
Melky? I'm confused. Why Melky? Would it be Melky and Matsui for Rowand?
No, I'm telling you why I said he would be 34. Which ever number you want to use is fine.
His OBP in the last five years has been .361, .329, .321, .374, .339.
That's two above average years, one average and two below average. Doesn't look like he's that bad at getting on base.
Thus, he's been wildly inconsistent and any reasonable logic would suggest that entering his decline years, he is more than likely to replicate the down years.
Players do not age on perfect curves. His projection next year will probably be pretty good for a CFer.
don't doubt that he could be decent for another year or two (OPS+ ~90),
So he's just going to keep declining from here on out? Even though he's only 30 (or 31). I don't have that much faith in the post 30 fall off. It will happen, but it doesn't have to happen at 31, it could happen at 33 or 35. As you said, he's an erratic player, his decline last year may simply be another erratic year. I'll take his projection, which I expect will be alright for CFer, rather than heavily discount him for the fact that he turned 30 and played worse than he did the year before. If the projection is lousy, then I'll obviously reconsider.
This isn't a guy who is going to age well, as his bat speed decreases.
When is his bat speed going to decrease?
To a team that spends as much as the Yankees, the contract isn't a big deal now... but it would be when Rowand isn't productive in 2-3 years.
Well, of course the Yankees could eat his contract, it's simply not that much. And they don't need him after this year. If he has a good year, you flip him easily. If he has a bad one, you eat part of his contract and send him to a team that wants to gamble on a CFer.
In SSS of 700 innings in CF between '07 and '08, Damon had a respectable .928 RZR with 31 out of zone plays.
You don't expect me to take 700 innings over 2 years of defensive stats as meaningful do you?
He'd certainly be below average over 130-140 starts out there, but range would not be the problem.
Well, range wouldn't be a problem in the first 20 games. But Damon has shown through out his Yankee career that he wears down because of his style of play over the course of the season and if you run him out there in April, be prepared for a terrible defensive CFer who can't hit by September. It is not a good idea for the Yanks to do that and there's a reason why they won't.
Damon is clearly the better hitter, so my contention was it would be a virtual wash between the two... with one player expiring at seasons end and the other burdening payroll for an additional three.
It's not between Damon and Rowand, it's between Rowand and Matsui. Damon is more valuable in LF than in CF. He stays fresher, plays good defense in left and his arm is not as exposed. Matsui is a DH with questionable knees and power who simply cannot play in the field. If you keep Matsui, Melky is playing the field or they have to sign another OFer. Rowand can play center (I don't accept that he's a below average fielder, Dewan's #s are the only one's I've seen that suggest he is, I'm willing to believe he's only average) and not be a total waste of time at the plate and it's not like there are a lot of player like that around this offseason. If Posada can play catcher, great, you go out and sign another DH, there are plenty on the market this winter, if he can't, then the DH spot is freed up. And most importantly, this provides the Yanks with a stop gap solution in CF until Jackson is ready to play.
Couple of questions:
1.) How would you convert the baserunning metric found on Bill James online?
2.) Is it acceptable shorthand to use something like BB-ref batting runs + a run conversion like you outline above for +/- system, and throw in a conversion for the baserunning metric to get an easy shorthand for hitting/defense/baserunning ?
I realize I can just look at OPD, but that doesn't include baserunning. Also, there are a lot of differences between Dewans fielding bible and zone rating, so I like to compare the two.
Thanks
If Rowand is actually available, he'll be sought after by multiple teams.
His Zips projection for 2008 was bang-on. Within a few XBH. He's just good when he's hitting .300, and mediocre when hitting .270.
I really hope the Giants trade him - I would take Matsui if the Yanks insisted but not straight up. I'm not sure Matsui even sweetens the package, or is a give back.
Still - I doubt anything comes of it. Winn is a FA after 09, and shouldn't be resigned. Past Lewis and Shierholtz, the G's don't really have any OF prospects... so they would basically be trading Rowand for "FA OF in 2009"... which would be a curious move.
Eh
OPS+ last 3 seasons
Matsui 111, 123, 128
Nady 127, 107, 103
I know Matsui was hurt and Nady was back to his usual hitting after the trade last year but I still think 20 points of OPS+ is overstating things at least a bit, especially considering their relative ages.
I don't think taking on a 4 year contract fits any reasonable definition of "stop-gap"
if you're a subscriber to BPro, they have baserunning metrics too; based on Dan Fox' methodology detailed in THT and BPro.
I don't want the Yanks to get him if they're going to play him for four years.
Yes, those are the run values I've used. I'm working on adjusting these based on the season run environment. I haven't changed email addresses. We were able to email each other last week, you've tried more recently and are getting bounced?
I think comcast did something to cut down on spam email, as I've noticed I'm getting a lot fewer junk emails. I hope they aren't blocking you, but I'm not sure how to fix it, it wasn't anything I did to my account. You can also try:
mdangelfan -at- comcast dot net.
IMO, one year of Damon giving you significantly below average defense, while giving you well above average offense is better than three seasons of Rowand's mediocrity. My assumption of Damon play CF was based on the idea that someone other than Matsui plays LF.
I don't believe players age on a perfect curve either, as you mentioned above. I do believe, however, that players with low IsoD are much more susceptible to a sharp decline, as they do not walk enough to provide offensive value at lower batting averages. Thus, I think Rowand's skill set makes him a candidate to age poorly.
Like who?
Are we talking about the 35 year old Johnny Damon with the 104 career OPS+? If can repeat his 2008, sure. But 2008 was, on a rate stat basis, his best offensive season since... well, ever.
That is a pretty deceptive statement. You're making it sound as if '08 was some career year, it wasn't. It was pretty much exactly in line with what Damon hits when he is having a good year. His OPS+ last year was 121 and he also has years of 115, 117, 118 and 116. Last year was only his 5th best batting average, his 4th best OBP and 5th best SLG.
Heh, the new #s have the Yanks at a 104 ERA+ and a 101 OPS+. They definitely need more bats.
It was a factual statement.
It was his best year by rate stats. If anything, the fact it's in line with his other good years shows that even at his best, Damon isn't a great offensive player.
Which is relevant how exactly? League offense was down, making it Damon's best offensive season by rate.
Discounting the fact an injury-prone player is going to be 35 at the start of 2009 is also stupid. Does his 97 OPS+ in 2007 also have nothing to do with what we're talking about today? His OPS+ over the past 3 years is only a few points higher than his career numbers.
Like who?
Sabathia says he wants to hit.
But isn't that contrary to what studies find? Hitter who rely on BA and are "athletic" when they're younger age better, mainly because, as they age, they add walks and power while losing BA. Guys with walks and power in their youth often decline quite rapidly -- especially if they have lower BAs and aren't athletic (as tends to be the case). Adam Dunn is as big or bigger risk to fall off a cliff as Rowand because any day now he could start hitting about 200.
Sure, "perfect" hitters like Pujols or Sheffield -- high BA, high walks, high contact, good/great power -- age wonderfully. For the other 98% of players, walks and power at a young age don't generally translate into longevity.
Now Rowand's walk rate is quite poor (about 1 per 15 AB) so getting a good walk rate seems unlikely. But he has, to date, supplemented it with lots of HBPs such that he gets a free pass about 1 per 11 AB which is tolerable. He Ks at about the league-average rate so nothing much to be concerned with there. If he can maintain his defense, I could easily see him being a lesser version of Mike Cameron.
Obviously there are reasons to be concerned about Rowand's offense going forward. He does bounce around a lot -- 3 of his last 4 years are below-average for a CF as a hitter. But my bigger concern is around his defense and whether running into walls (and the HBPs) have essentially caused him to age prematurely.
No, the Rowand contract isn't a great one -- but it ended up being pretty well in line with the market. Given Pierre, Matthews, Guillen, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Ichiro, etc., it's hard to complain about Rowand. Vernon Wells (not that much better and only a year younger than Rowand) starts making $21 M in 2010. Baseball is awash in money and no reason why the Yanks shouldn't pay Rowand $12 M to be their 4th OF in 2011-2012.
And as to "age" ... sorry, but he'll be "34" when the contract runs out. No, there's nothing magical about baseball age (or your birthday for that matter). The issue is that all the analyses done on aging in baseball have used baseball age. If you want to go out there and try to construct one that uses real age (without making an equally arbitrary cutoff), be my guest. But until then, to the extent we know anything about how Rowand will age, it is based on studies looking at players in their baseball age 31-34 seasons.
As noted by others, compared to contracts out there, Rowand is very reasonable, OK if he is average, a bargain if he is out performing. The "problem" is that he's been average more often than outperforming during his career.
However, that's the (real) problem when people who are unfamiliar with a player's background. One reason one year was bad was because he smashed his face on the fence catching a ball. He was batting over 900 OPS when that happened, below average after that. So forgiving him that season (or better crediting him for the great hitting before his injury), he only has the one unexplained poor season and two very good seasons (plus the good start to his injury year) plus 2008.
When a young player has an inconsistent year like 2008, you have to wonder whether he's just that inconsistent, but when you have a vet with experience of doing well when not injured, you have to wonder about his 2008 performance (as noted above) being marred by injury: he had roughly 950 OPS first two months of the year, then high 600 OPS rest of the season, as noted by Danny above in #36. A veteran don't usually do that over such an extended period of time, doing that poorly, without an injury to account for it. He did injure himself severely early in April, but soon was hitting well again, and there is no reported injury that accounts for the severe dropoff after May.
However, something similar happened to Randy Winn a couple of seasons ago, he injured his leg (fouled a ball of his shin if I recall correctly) and while he did return to starting, he didn't hit well at all the rest of 2006 and refused to blame that injury though most fans thought so and reporters asked him repeatedly if that was the case. Most Giants fans that off-season were complaining about Winn's contract like they are doing now with Rowand's contract. Then he had an OK, Randy Winn-type season in 2007, and fans were in love with him again and he was a fan favorite in 2008 again.
A hitter can go on hot streaks and cold streaks, but Rowand's problem has appeared to be injuries that linger on when he should take it easy and heal properly first.
That's the problem with mechanical forecasting systems, it doesn't capture nuances like this for Winn and Rowand, or any player with an injury. Not that mechanical forecasts aren't great, but you have to know it's limitations.
Rowand has been a very good hitter for a significant amount of ABs. He's also been not so good as well, but much of it can be attributed to an injury he suffered earlier that season. Still, I wouldn't go on the record as saying that he's going to be very good in 2009 since there was no official explanation for his drop in 2008 (unlike, say, Morris's drop when it was revealed that he broke a rib but pitched anyway - and poorly - the rest of the season).
I wouldn't go the other way either, as another factor that nobody here mentioned is how AT&T;depresses right-handed hitters stats, which, while not as bad as against lefties, can still significant. In 2008, he hit .256/.328/.386/.714 at home and a more robust .287/.350/.434/.784 on the road. So his poor/average season was actually more average overall when considering his road numbers, which I think is a much better comparison point for any homepark where hitting is skewed either way, whether Giants, Dodgers, Padres for pitcher's parks, or Reds, Rockies, D-backs for hitter's parks.
2009 will be his put up or shut-up season. I think that there are a lot of indications that he can be a regularly good hitter - and not even accounting for playing in CF, mid-high 800 OPS would be good for most offensive positions - but there has been enough bad times to wonder if he'll just be a yo-yo the rest of his career, much like how Pete Reiser shortened his career, both length and magnitude, with his multiple injuries.
Rowand said before the season that he's learned it's not good to put himself in position to injure himself but then he went ahead and did it within a week or two of joining the Giants. Adrenaline and sheer will, I believe, allowed him to play unfettered by the injury but it eventually caught up with him in June. Or so it seems. Hopefully he has finally learned his lesson and hopefully he will be all healed for 2009.
In any case, the Giants had made a big point of signing him (the Gamer ad program which I enjoyed and, frankly, it was appropriate as there was no better gamer around than Lincecum) so I don't think he's going anywhere. Plus, he's our only true CF, Winn and Roberts are poor CF. And I think the Giants still believe they got the excellent hitting CF they thought they signed.
Randy Winn is the player who makes the most sense for the Yankees to trade for. He's a reasonable salary, only one year to his contract, produces well, plays 150+ games, can play all OF positions acceptably defensively on a short time basis, RF excellently as a starter, which is cleared by Abreu's free agency.
Plus, the last thing the Giants need is another OF like Cabrera or Matsui, Japanese or not, he's old (the Giants are reportedly looking in Japan more actively now anyhow, I would think they would go young and go relievers) and the Giants are now looking young and clearing their roster of the older players. That vet strategy was the "Win with Bonds" strategy that didn't work; they are now looking younger and long-term now. The last thing we need is another old about average (and declining the past 4 seasons) OF or young below-average OF, particularly when AT&T;'s kills left hitters.
Because we have plenty of OF options without trading for another. If we trade Winn, Schierholtz gets the chance to show his stuff in RF and I think he will do well, he's done well in short stints with us and well in AAA the past two seasons. He just needs the opportunity. In addition, the Giants have Dave Roberts as utility OF (LF-CF), plus probably John Bowker (LF-RF), perhaps Dan Ortmeier (all 3 OF) and Velez could play LF in a pinch (plus Sandoval, I would think, if necessary). Not great, but no reason to trade a good OF, whether Rowand or Winn, for an OF who, unlike either, is clearly declining in Matsui (OPS+ declining for years now) or a young OF who hasn't hit that well yet, and can't even hit for power in Yankee Stadium.
So unless they are giving up Cano or Jesus Montrero (and I wouldn't do that straight up if I were the Yankees), I don't see what the Yankees have that the Giants would be interested in. I would be interested in Wilson Betemit but not straight up, the Giants would need a prospect thrown in to even up the deal. But he's useful to them so I don't see them giving him up. I just don't see a match between the teams otherwise.
Lastly, the Giants have also expressed interest in Alex Rodriguez before, but I assume the Yankees are holding onto him. :^)
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