ConspiracyBall!

Starring Mel Gibson as Alex Rodriguez

So is Cesar Carrillo in on it, or is he outside the looking glass?

Given the dollars involved (over $100 mil) I could see the Yankees trying to find ways to discredit and push A-Rod out. And after seeing Bonds pushed out while still very productive it isn't hard to imagine why A-Rod would feel this way. Of course, if the Yankees or MLB went this far to discredit him then they are into a legal area that could carry prison time (fraud) while Bonds was more all of MLB feeling his baggage was more than his production.

Given the dollars involved (over $100 mil) I could see the Yankees trying to find ways to discredit and push A-Rod out. And after seeing Bonds pushed out while still very productive it isn't hard to imagine why A-Rod would feel this way. Of course, if the Yankees or MLB went this far to discredit him then they are into a legal area that could carry prison time (fraud) while Bonds was more all of MLB feeling his baggage was more than his production.

And what's more, what incentive does MLB actually have to do this. The Yankees, sure, but MLB? The other 29 teams want the Yankees to pay LT, and as much as possible. And it's going to piss the union off beyond belief, which would make the next CBA talks... contentious. There's no upside for the other teams. Why stick their necks out to save the Yankees some cash.

Looking at it from Rodriguez's POV, if he really had nothing to do with this doctor then he's probably right to be paranoid as someone is out to get him.

http://www.dianafoundation.com/articles/df_04_article_01_steroids_pg01.html

The Neuropsychiatric Sequelae of Steroid Treatment

Cases of steroid-induced psychiatric symptoms have been reported in the literature since the 1950s. The variety of clinical signs associated with steroid-induced psychosis is comprised of visual and auditory hallucinations, delusional thinking, paranoia, affective disturbances (depression, apathy, hypomania, panic), depersonalization, motor disturbances (overactivity, immobility), aggressive behavior, and cognitive impairment. However, a number of publications on this topic appear to support symptoms of mania as being the most common psychiatric manifestation of steroid treatment. In contrast, some studies have suggested that the risk of depression increases with prolonged or chronic exposure to exogenous steroids.

If I were as much of a criminal reprobate sociopath as A-Rod, I think I'd be pretty damn paranoid too. He has a lot to worry about.

And what's more, what incentive does MLB actually have to do this. The Yankees, sure, but MLB? The other 29 teams want the Yankees to pay LT, and as much as possible. And it's going to piss the union off beyond belief, which would make the next CBA talks... contentious. There's no upside for the other teams. Why stick their necks out to save the Yankees some cash.

I think there is some benefit to MLB to occasionally nab a big star. Obviously the perfect world no one would be doing PEDs but I don't think it hurts MLB that they can say "hey, we clean our own house, even when it's a big star." A-Rod is damaged goods so as a practical matter there isn't a big marketing hit to MLB (better him than Jeter or Pujols for example) and it "proves" the PED testing is working.

I don't think that's actually what's happened here but I think MLB does get some benefit from "catching" a guy like A-Rod.

I think there is some benefit to MLB to occasionally nab a big star. Obviously the perfect world no one would be doing PEDs but I don't think it hurts MLB that they can say "hey, we clean our own house, even when it's a big star." A-Rod is damaged goods so as a practical matter there isn't a big marketing hit to MLB (better him than Jeter or Pujols for example) and it "proves" the PED testing is working.

I don't think that's actually what's happened here but I think MLB does get some benefit from "catching" a guy like A-Rod.

Except that it isn't testing that caught him, hard to highlight it as much of a success in these circumstances. And even then, it would be the regular punishment they should be pushing for, not the void his contract, and push him out of baseball nonsense we have been getting.

But wait, that anonymous baseball source implied that A-Rod was ready to retire and only take a fraction of his guaranteed money?

I don't think that's actually what's happened here but I think MLB does get some benefit from "catching" a guy like A-Rod.

Catching him, yes. As FPH says, it would be reasonable for MLB to seek to suspend ARod based on the existing PED regulations in the CBA. (If there's good evidence, obviously.)

But the question here was whether MLB would put its weight behind trying to force ARod out of his contract. That would be a terrible idea - they'd lose, and they'd ruin the state of labor relations in the process.

Even if you are paranoid it doesn't mean they are not out to get you.

Rosebud.

I agree with others here. I would completely believe the Yankees are trying to torpedo him in such a manner as to be able to void the contract. But I see no scenario in which MLB gets involved. Yes, MLB might benefit from nabbing a big star occasionally to show that the system is looking at everyone. But not if it risks significant downside, which getting caught in a conspiracy to drive one of the games highest paid players out would do. So, if MLB were seeking a 50 (or would it be 100?) game suspension, cool, I could see it. MLB trying to save the Yankees money? No way.

But the question here was whether MLB would put its weight behind trying to force ARod out of his contract. That would be a terrible idea - they'd lose, and they'd ruin the state of labor relations in the process.

Althought the MBLPA can't be happy having the Yankees sidelined on big FAs b/c of luxury tax issues.

A settlement that pays ARod most of his money (say 80% of the face value with some major deferrals) to retire, and gives the Yankees cap relief should make the players quite happy.

A settlement that pays ARod most of his money (say 80% of the face value with some major deferrals) to retire, and gives the Yankees cap relief should make the players quite happy.

They might, because the Yankees would have that money to spend on other players. But I don't know if that would be enough to counterbalance seeing a player forced to retire when he doesn't want to, and a guaranteed contract becoming not so guaranteed.

They might, because the Yankees would have that money to spend on other players. But I don't know if that would be enough to counterbalance seeing a player forced to retire when he doesn't want to, and a guaranteed contract becoming not so guaranteed.

Well clearly ARod would have to agree. There's no mechanism to "force" him to retire. There's also no reason he couldn't "unretire" after a year of getting healthy.

MLB trying to save the Yankees money? No way.

But if the Yankees turn around and spend the money on other players, it doesn't reduce the amount of revenue sharing/luxury tax the other teams get.

I imagine Bud and his cronies actually fear the Yankees becoming fiscally sane; it would deprive them of a ton of free money.

Has there been any more investigation into the source of the evidence about A-Rod and the others? Are we convinced this is legit or is it possibly some kind of shakedown. Is it possible this is a complicated blackmailing scheme?

Has there been any more investigation into the source of the evidence about A-Rod and the others? Are we convinced this is legit or is it possibly some kind of shakedown. Is it possible this is a complicated blackmailing scheme?

Who's the likely blackmailer? Usually in blackmail, you get paid to keep things quiet, so the newspaper story would pretty much blow the deal.

It's going to be a sad, sad, sad day when A-Rod retires...

...at least for the internets and sports gossip columnists.

This is starting to annoy me. If Arod were on track to hit 38 HR, we wouldn't be hearing anything from the Yankees. I'm very anti-PED but Arod has passed every test he's been given (since Texas). The Yankees are NOT getting out of the contract anymore than the Rockies got out of Mike Hamptons contract. "80%" is BS. Who took his $20M and why? That's a lot of freaking money, for anyone. If they didn't offer that big contract then he's spent the last few years in Boston or Los Angeles. Please show me the gun that was held to the Steinbrenners' head when they signed up.
#6 is wonderful, by the way.

Has there been any more investigation into the source of the evidence about A-Rod and the others?

I assume investigations are ongoing - by whom I don't know.

This is starting to annoy me. If Arod were on track to hit 38 HR, we wouldn't be hearing anything from the Yankees.

Yeah it seems obvious that the Yankees only have found religion regarding steroids because the player in question is now ineffective and because of the $100 million they owe.

Who's the likely blackmailer? Usually in blackmail, you get paid to keep things quiet, so the newspaper story would pretty much blow the deal.

I said a complicated scheme, not a competent one! I haven't read much about this story since it broke, but wasn't there some talk that the source of all this is kind of sketchy? What if it's all a fabrication?

But if the Yankees turn around and spend the money on other players

Seems like a huge assumption. As far as I can tell the Yankees are serious about trying to get under the cap next year. Getting out from under this contract would help them a ton with that.

As far as I can tell the Yankees are serious about trying to get under the cap next year. Getting out from under this contract would help them a ton with that.

I think they are already under the cap.

I think they are already under the cap.

Cots has them at 207 this year. If they let Cano, Granderson, Kuroda, Youkilis, Pettitte, and Mariano walk without signing replacements, they will definitely be under the cap. They will also suck, so that's not happening.

Yeah it seems obvious that the Yankees only have found religion regarding steroids because the player in question is now ineffective and because of the $100 million they owe.

I agree, Nate. A-Rod is supposedly taking illegal PED's and not performing well, so the team is willing to turn him in.

Seems like a huge assumption. As far as I can tell the Yankees are serious about trying to get under the cap next year. Getting out from under this contract would help them a ton with that.

Yes, for one year.

But after that, I assume they'd like to go back to $200M. Regardless of whether their "cap" is $180M or $200M, if they could pay ARod salary with "non-cap" buyout money, they'd likely spend an extra $25M on other players.

But after that, I assume they'd like to go back to $200M. Regardless of whether their "cap" is $180M or $200M, if they could pay ARod salary with "non-cap" buyout money, they'd likely spend an extra $25M on other players.

Buyouts count towards the cap.

Ariod seems to be acting like Nixon in the White House in the last days of his presidency. Is he making self-pitying drunken phone calls to Henry Kissinger?

Cots has them at 207 this year. If they let Cano, Granderson, Kuroda, Youkilis, Pettitte, and Mariano walk without signing replacements, they will definitely be under the cap. They will also suck, so that's not happening.

Looking towards 2014 and beyond, I'm not entirely certain that it's a bad decision to let that crew walk. I don't like the decline phases of any of those players with the possible exception of Cano, and even he's a second baseman and they're famous for declining young and hard.

I think Yanksterity is a very convenient, transparent excuse to engage in a hardcore but short term rebuilding process focused around the 2015-2017 FA classes, which might include bounties like Justin Upton and Felix Hernandez. The Yankees are very old anyway. This is an extreme version of the 07-08 period. They might eat a losing season in 2014, but they'll be back with whatever rookies the sort out over that period (Heathcott, Williams, Banuelos, Betances, whoever), lots of money, and better draft positioning than they've had in literally decades.

Buyouts count towards the cap.

Unless Bud says they don't. You can always structure it creatively so it not a "buyout".

MLB is the ultimate in crony capitalism; we should never assume rules actually apply.

Unless Bud says they don't. You can always structure it creatively so it not a "buyout".

MLB is the ultimate in crony capitalism; we should never assume rules actually apply.

Yeah and 29 teams have a vested interest in keeping the Yankees paying the tax. And using the word creatively does not solve any of your problems, since the figure going towards the LT is determined by:

“the value of the total compensation (cash or otherwise) paid to a Player pursuant to the terms of a Uniform Player’s Contract, including any guarantee by the Club of payments by third parties, for a particular championship season. Salary shall include, without limitation, the value of non-cash compensation such as the provision of personal translators, personal massage therapists, and airfare and tickets exceeding normal Club allotments.”

There is no way you can pay ARod 100m without paying him 100m. Anything else is irrelevant.

The only thing you might be able to do is defer a ton of money, to reduce the AAV of the contract by spreading it out longer. (I would have to look up if that even works, I don't know the exact wording. But it would have to be done in a way that wasn't a blatant attempt to dodge LT, as that would be DOA at the commissioner's office.)
But:
A) That would require making the deferral worthwhile to ARod.
B) Due to the nature of compound interest, the actual benefit in practice is going to be fairly limited. And if you intend to go right back over the LT anyway, you end up paying the new higher 50% for practically all of it.
C) You are putting yourself at the mercy of future CBA's, which are not going to be friendlier, and could very well be worse. If the top rate gets hiked again (likely I would think), or they put an actual salary cap in, you are screwed.

it "proves" the PED testing is working.

Actually, this proves that PED-testing does not work, since A-Rod apparently passed every test, and is only being "caught" because outside evidence was made available.

Lots of feverish speculation and unjustified hype have swept over the tabloid press and much of BBTF. Maybe this will be a real story with actual evidence, but so far there hasn't been anything that would be admissible in even the loosest arbitration process, much less a court of law. Most of the drugs mentioned in the original article are tested for by MLB, so it won't be that easy to overcome the presumption of innocence that is considerably strengthened by A-Rod's passing the MLB drug tests, some of which would seem likely to overlap the time period in question.

Folks are probably making too much of the Yankees relative silence. I suspect they are merely trying to avoid getting burned if this story turns out to have substance, while also preparing for A-Rod's return in the (perceived as) more likely scenario of A-Rod not being disciplined by MLB.

Wait a second. I thought A-Rod was going to save us all AND the hallowed Career HR record from the "stain" of Barry Bonds?

Speaking arch villain Bonds - Was watching "Rookie of the Year" with my son, (In which Gary Busey does his best Curt Schilling impression and Daniel Stern proves he is one unfunny human being) and was shocked at the Bonds cameo - Shock one - was that the kid struck him out - Shock two - I forgot just how thin, the evil one was in Pittsburgh while putting up...

140 612 473 109 147 36 5 34 103 39 8 127 69 .311 .456 .624 1.080 204

And winning the MVP.

Daniel Stern proves he is one unfunny human being

Daniel Stern's place in the heart of every Millennial was secured by his performance as the narrator of "The Wonder Years."

I agree with others here. I would completely believe the Yankees are trying to torpedo him in such a manner as to be able to void the contract. But I see no scenario in which MLB gets involved. Yes, MLB might benefit from nabbing a big star occasionally to show that the system is looking at everyone. But not if it risks significant downside, which getting caught in a conspiracy to drive one of the games highest paid players out would do. So, if MLB were seeking a 50 (or would it be 100?) game suspension, cool, I could see it. MLB trying to save the Yankees money? No way.

I seriously doubt the Yankees are the ones behind this. Remember, AROD wasn't the only player named and the other players were from teams all over the map. I can't even begin to think what the repercussions would be for a team not only torpedoing their player, but players from other teams too. That would be so, so far past tampering that I don't even know what you would call it.