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Thursday, August 07, 2008

N.Y. Observer: Megdal: Pedro Versus the ‘Rust’

And no…this has nothing to do with “The Big Ball Orchard in the South Bronx.”

Martinez sometimes appears incapable of getting major league hitters out, particularly early in games—witness his two home runs Wednesday, or the four runs on five hits he gave up to the Cardinals in the first inning on July 2. But he managed, in both games, to give up next-to-nothing over the remaining innings of his start.

Is he merely rusty, and the low innings total—he missed two months from April to June with a hamstring injury—will allow him to pitch more effectively from now until the end of the season? Or is his body betraying him, not only with various ailments, but for the first time, keeping him from the pinpoint command that made him a legend? Even Pedro doesn’t know what to expect from himself.

“No, I can’t really predict,” Martinez said. “Let’s be realistic. Right now, I can’t tell you—I’ve pitched, what, twice in a month? What I can tell you is that I felt great today. I haven’t pitched like I need to pitch. I will try to stay healthy, and keep making adjustments. I have two months to get better and keep the team in the fight. I will get better, and I think I can take care of it.”

Repoz Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:33 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2894201)
Pedro has a 3.05 ERA in his last 4 starts with a 1.26 WHIP and 7.4 k/9 in 20.2 IP. Those are fine numbers. He has allowed only 15 hits but 7 of them have been solo homers along with 6 singles and 2 doubles. His ERA is exactly the same as his hr/9.

I am not arguing he has pitched well because he is giving a lot of walks and a ridiculous amount of homers. That being said, Pedro's hr/f is at 22% on the season. That almost has to go down. Some of the homers will turn into doubles and outs.

Pedro's x-FIP on the season is 4.89 which isn't particularly good but acceptable for a 5th starter. I say the over/under on his ERA the rest of the season is 4.50.
   2. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#2894211)
Pedro's x-FIP on the season is 4.89 which isn't particularly good but acceptable for a 5th starter
I have to admit, never did I think that I would see an accurate sentence about Pedro characterize his stats as not "particularly good but acceptable for a 5th starter."
   3. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:02 PM (#2894218)
I think most of us thought Pedro burn out rather than fade away but he might have a period where he is just a mediocre pitcher.

That said, I would not be surprised if Pedro put up a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way either.
   4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:07 PM (#2894224)
Martinez sometimes appears incapable of getting major league hitters out, particularly early in games

Just have a reliever pitch the first inning and bring Pedro for the 2nd. Problem solved.
   5. Lassus Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:09 PM (#2894227)
Pedro vs. the Dust.

Maybe Nelson de la Rosa was his daemon.
   6. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:09 PM (#2894228)
That said, I would not be surprised if Pedro put up a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way either.

I wouldn't either, as long he continues to pitch around 20 innings a month against mostly mediocre opponents.

But if Mets fans are counting on him to be great in the playoffs (assuming they get there of course), in that case I think you may be waiting for Godot.
   7. eric Posted: August 07, 2008 at 07:14 PM (#2894396)
I think most of us thought Pedro burn out rather than fade away but he might have a period where he is just a mediocre pitcher.

If he keeps pitching at 5.00+ ERA and retires in disgust in another 50 IP or so, I think history will have seen him to have "burnt out."
   8. RobertMachemer Posted: August 07, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2894519)
Just have a reliever pitch the first inning and bring Pedro for the 2nd. Problem solved.
Is he having problems in the first inning? (I ask out of ignorance). His brother Ramon seemed to have that problem in his time with the Red Sox.
   9. RobertMachemer Posted: August 07, 2008 at 10:20 PM (#2894624)
Ramon Martinez in 2000 (basically his last real year in the majors) allowed opponents to hit for a .308 AVG, .457 OBP, .617 SLG in the first inning. He was considerably better than that in the second through fifth innings. He pitched poorly enough in the 6th inning (and the Sox had a good bullpen anyway) that he didn't get too many opportunities to pitch poorly in the seventh or eighth innings.

inning  AVG   OBP   SLG
1st    .308  .457  .617
2nd    .258  .321  .330
3rd    .238  .320  .417
4th    .274  .347  .393
5th    .274  .325  .425
6th    .349  .440  .628
7th    .429  .500  .429
8th    .333  .333  .667 


When you're allowing all first inning batters to hit like a Manny Ramirez or Albert Pujols, you ain't doing so hot.

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