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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Good thing Fat Jack Hamilton Berger ain’t on the case…and Howard Megdal is!
Perez has been mystifying for nearly five seasons now. In 2004, then with the Pirates, he posted an ERA+ of 145—the 142nd-best mark of any starting pitcher since 1980. But he did so at age 22—only three pitchers beat that mark at a younger age: Mark Prior, whose brilliant career has been derailed by injuries, Dwight Gooden, who lost his career to arm injuries and personal problems, and Bret Saberhagen, who went on to post a better-than-average ERA+ in 11 of his next 12 seasons. Even Prior and Gooden together posted another 11 such seasons.
But Perez followed his 2004 with a 5.85 ERA in 2005, good for an ERA+ of just 72. In 2006, he got even worse, putting up a 6.55 ERA for an ERA+ of 67. A pitcher who had electrified at age 22 got dealt to the Mets by age 24—and as a throw-in. It didn’t help that the Pirates tried to remake Perez’s motion completely—though they lacked any success in doing so with pitchers, they tried it with their finest prospect. The results were predictable.
Repoz
Posted: July 03, 2008 at 01:38 PM | 24 comment(s)
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1. bibigon Posted: July 03, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2841928)The key for Perez is to get more flyballs?
Someone may be mistaking correlation and causation...
When Perez has his real good stuff his ball tends to climb up in the zone, he gets more Ks and more flyballs, the flyballs can lead to HRs which are bad, but also lead to popups and flyouts which are good,,,
when he doesn't have his real good stuff his flyball rate seems to drop- but he also loses Ks, give sup more LDs, and a higher BABIP.
It's not that Perez needs to get more flyballs, it's just that flyballs are a sign that he has his good stuff working- if he could get his Ks and keep his flyball rate down (avoiding HRs)- THAT would be ideal, but that's not the pitcher he is.
[edit] Sorry, misspelled Megdal. Now fixed. Fresh articles still wanted, however.
What's Willie Randolph up to nowadays?
Waiting to be the subject of the next Mets: Where Are They Now? piece once Salfino's finished up his Scott Kazmir profile?
I doubt Mets fans are going to let go of this any time soon, but the rest of us will. If there'd been a BTF back when young Bobby Clemente went Rule V, I'm sure something similar would've happened.
i doubt it
But just to pour salt into the wound...
2005-08: 88 pitchers have thrown 450+ innings
Kazmir is 9th by ERA+
Basically the Mets traded a true #1 starter for.... Victor (the wrong) Zambrano...
It is, in fact, Hamilton Berger who was Perry Mason's adversary. Good thing Mason wasn't the only defense attorney in town.
-- MWE
JD Drew and the Phillies? Because he's moved around a lot in his career and has had trouble staying healthy, it's hard to associate him with any particular team.
here's a list of pitchers with an ERA+ above 140 when they were between 21 and 23 years old (since 1950)
as you can see. Perez isn't the only one who flamed out
Josh Hamilton and the Devil Rays
And why the slight to Perry, I thought he was awesome! He and Della were a great team. And Paul Drake!
Wait, you think Kazmir is associated MORE with the Mets than with the Drays? That's a bit much.
I can't think of anyone else near the same level.
I wasn't picking on Perry - it was more a comment on Berger. No DA in this day and age could lose that many high-profile cases and keep his job, so he had to be winning a few from someone else along the way.
-- MWE
Oliver Perez seems like the strange player that really defies the whole sample size argument - ordinarily, you take a player's season numbers, or better yet, his career numbers - and you can get a really good picture of what kind of player he is.
But with Perez - it's feast or famine. He defies the concept of averaging raw numbers.
It's like the old joke- put one foot in a bucket of ice, another in a bucket of boiling water- on average you are fine- that's Perez.
Because when his fastball is rising AND he's throwing strikes, he's as hard to hit as any pitcher in baseball.
But: when his fastball is rising AND he's not throwing strikes, he's as hard to hit as any pitcher in baseball, but he'll walk more than a batter per inning.
when his fastball is not rising AND he's throwing strikes, he starts to get a little too hittable...
when his fastball is not rising AND he's not throwing strikes... oy vey
You suck.
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