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Saturday, March 17, 2018

NY POST - KERNAN: It’s all coming together for ‘awesome’ Matt Harvey

PORT ST. LUCIE — What a change from a year ago. In more ways than one for Matt Harvey and the Mets.

Harvey has a feel for the baseball again, something he didn’t have last year because he was recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

That change Thursday was obvious as Harvey struck out the last five Marlins he faced, the final two Ks coming off diving changeups in the Mets’ 7-6 loss at First Data Field.

One other important note: Harvey is digging the new “badass’’ beast-mode of pitching inside off the plate that pitching coach Dave Eiland is demanding of his pitchers.

“I like the way that’s been taught and told,’’ Harvey said, his eyes lighting up. “You look at all the great pitchers in the game in the past and present and they all go inside with authority and that’s going to be our motto. That opens up the whole outside corner for everything else, so it’s definitely nice. It’s fun.’’

After years of frustration it’s beginning to come back together again for Matt Harvey.

GOODBYE 4EVER HATERZ

Lassus Posted: March 17, 2018 at 06:05 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: March 18, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5639641)
That change Thursday was obvious as Harvey struck out the last five Marlins he faced

Get back to me when he's facing major-leaguers. :-)
   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5639651)
Ugh, I thought the stupid "beast mode" thing had gone away.
   3. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:41 AM (#5639655)
I think the lineup he faced in that game had combined for 2 MLB homers. Harvey has been healthy enough to pitch so far this season but there are still a lot of questions about him. He's not in the same class as Noah or Degrom, and the Mets should consider themselves lucky if he gives them 150ish innings of 90-100ish ERA+.
   4. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:41 AM (#5639656)
and the Mets should consider themselves lucky if he gives them 150ish innings of 90-100ish ERA+.

Absolutely.

Listen, I'm thrilled that Harvey doesn't (so far) completely underwhelm or try and show up Wright's record against his own body. I may have found the article slightly hilarious, but bring it on, baby.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 09:26 AM (#5639673)
Jeeze, can't we even have optimism in Spring Training?
   6. manchestermets Posted: March 19, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5639675)
Not when we're the Mets, no.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5639679)
Well I'll be honest, I thought he was toast, so this is nice. I agree with Russlan's #3 but it's nice to hear something positive for once.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5639697)
Not when we're the Mets, no.

Well, I have optimism for the Mets. I think they'll make the playoffs.
   9. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5639707)
I will go on record as an optimistic Mets fan. Not that they are perfectly constructed, but they are better constructed in a lot of ways than the team that made the WS in 2015. If they don't lose a bunch of people to injury again I think they will be in the mix for a Wild Card and if Washington falters they could win the division with 88-90. I don't believe Washington falters though. There will be a lot of teams competing for WC this year. Mets, Cardinals, Brewers, the Giants might be decent, D'backs. It should be an interesting season.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5639717)
Funny, I see them as a .500 team, but maybe I'm overestimating the quality of other teams. Fangraphs projections have them as 82-80 but that potentially squeaks into the wild card.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5639722)
Funny, I see them as a .500 team, but maybe I'm overestimating the quality of other teams. Fangraphs projections have them as 82-80 but that potentially squeaks into the wild card.

Projections are always more clustered than actual results. Per fangraphs, that 82-80 has them tied with SF for the 2nd WC.
   12. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5639728)
I just hope that the baseball gods have pity on us this year and keep them largely healthy. I just want to be watching quality baseball for most of the season and not have a repeat of last year.
   13. manchestermets Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5639751)
If they don't lose a bunch of people to injury again I think they will be in the mix for a Wild Card


I do tend to agree with this, I just think that it's a huge, 72-point bold if.
   14. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5639770)
I do tend to agree with this, I just think that it's a huge, 72-point bold if.

But couldn't you say that for most teams? Health, especially of pitching, is a huge factor that makes or breaks most teams.
   15. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5639772)
I do tend to agree with this, I just think that it's a huge, 72-point bold if.


Yeah. I'm also starting to worry about how they're handling 1B.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5639782)
Yeah. I'm also starting to worry about how they're handling 1B.

Is Bruce getting any reps?
   17. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5639788)
Is Bruce getting any reps?


Not in any games, though I don't know if he's practicing there. They seem to be going with A-Gon and I guess Flores vs LHP.
   18. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5639803)
But couldn't you say that for most teams? Health, especially of pitching, is a huge factor that makes or breaks most teams.

True, but I think the Mets have about as high a variance as anyone around their expected results.
   19. Conor Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5639807)
Bruce expressed displeasure about playing first last year. They signed him to a somewhat large FA contract in the winter; I would be surprised if there weren't some assurances included that he wouldn't be playing first base.
   20. Adam Starblind Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5639821)
I would be surprised if there weren't some assurances included that he wouldn't be playing first base.


I'd be surprised if they did assure him of that. Bruce's theoretical ability to play first is one of the only justifications for him to be on the roster.
   21. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5639893)
They seem to be going with A-Gon . . .

Saw Gonzalez in 2 Spring Training games against the Nationals - wasn't impressed, and his stats are very poor so far. Still, he seems to be the guy the Mets are going with at 1st.
   22. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5639903)

Saw Gonzalez in 2 Spring Training games against the Nationals - wasn't impressed, and his stats are very poor so far. Still, he seems to be the guy the Mets are going with at 1st.


He is quite bad.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5639945)
He is quite bad.

Quite bad is about 3 rungs up from where he is.

182/234/205 has to buy a ticket to see quite bad play in A-ball.

Get Bruce a first baseman's mitt, and put Nimmo in CF.
   24. Adam Starblind Posted: March 19, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5639946)
I have to think they consider releasing him if he doesn't show some sign of life very soon. It was a stretch to think he could be competent to begin with.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5639948)
How is #bestshapeofhislife Dom Smith looking?
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5639957)
How is #bestshapeofhislife Dom Smith looking?

Injured, I think.
   27. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 05:24 PM (#5639972)
Get Bruce a first baseman's mitt, and put Nimmo in CF


That would be ideal but like somebody upthread said I don't think he wants to play 1B.

How is #bestshapeofhislife Dom Smith looking?

Injured, I think


Yes, suspiciously, with no timetable for his return. It is the most Mets thing.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2018 at 08:46 PM (#5640017)
If the Mets are gonna do anything this year, it seems like one of Bruce/Conforto have to pick up the 1B glove. The Bruce signing was so strange, particularly with Duda out there cheap. Still, Bruce may object but players nearly always eventually accept the move.

Maybe it's a statcast thing. Per its catch probability, outs above average thingy, outside of the 20 best and 15 worst OFs (ignoring position), there's not a big difference (+/- 5 outs or about 5 runs). Conforto and Bruce were both ranked basically average last year which suggests neither would kill you in CF. In fact statcast paints Cespedes as the lead glove last year (near the bottom) and might suggest he should pick up the 1B glove. (Statcast rates him as terrible last year too.)
   29. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 19, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5640020)
I know Wilmer Flores has not hit righties all that much but I would rather he get the everyday first base job than the corpse of Adrian Gonzalez with the hope that Smith takes the job eventually.
   30. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:58 PM (#5640036)
Everyone who thought the Hernandez signing WASN'T a pathetically stupid idea, step forward.


LET'S GO, EPSTEIN.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5640045)
Assuming Hernandez is a cultural type for Gonzalez ... nothing wrong with grabbing him at league min or NRI or whatever. Continuing to give him spring PAs or, obviously worse, putting him on the roster requires that the magical coaching eyes see something his spring performance isn't showing. To the extent they preferred him to Duda, that doesn't seem smart either.

And Duda this spring: 429/538/762, the love child of Votto and Bonds. Possibly that won't hold up for the entire season.
   32. Lassus Posted: March 20, 2018 at 06:55 AM (#5640082)
Assuming Hernandez is a cultural type for Gonzalez

Ugh. Fail. Sorry.
   33. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 20, 2018 at 08:56 AM (#5640107)
I know Wilmer Flores has not hit righties all that much but I would rather he get the everyday first base job than the corpse of Adrian Gonzalez with the hope that Smith takes the job eventually.


I agree. Even if just for aesthetic purposes I would rather watch Wilmer Flores be a below avg 1B than Adrian Gonzalez.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 20, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5640114)
That would be ideal but like somebody upthread said I don't think he wants to play 1B.


You've got to appeal to him as a team guy. Say, we didn't plan this but Smith is hurt and Gonzalez is toast, we have no other options.

Still, Bruce may object but players nearly always eventually accept the move.

Agree with this.
   35. Conor Posted: March 20, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5640493)
Conforto is going to play CF when he's healthy. He looked much better than I expected out there last year, but it's still not ideal. I agree the best plan would be to stick Bruce at first and play Nimmo in CF, at least against right handed pitching.


In fact statcast paints Cespedes as the lead glove last year (near the bottom) and might suggest he should pick up the 1B glove. (Statcast rates him as terrible last year too.)


Interesting; what does it say for prior years? I'm not sure Cespedes had healthy legs after about the middle of April last year. And my impression is he's a pretty solid corner OF.
   36. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: March 20, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5640514)
He is a good LF and a terrible CF. I wouldn't mess around with Ces. Leave him alone and let him do his thing.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: March 21, 2018 at 12:01 AM (#5640735)
what does it say for prior years?

Statcast has only been tracking this (publicly) for two seasons so that's all we got. I haven't done anything remotely close to anything but cherry-picked and quasi-random checks but Statcast and DRS tend to rank similarly but Statcast is known to have much less variation between best and worst.

A think to keep in mind is that Statcast judges all OF together so a LF is in some ways being comped to something like an average RF or, if the CF flycatchers dominate, maybe even a low-ranked CF. Still for the last two years, Statcast says he's cost his team 20 outs vs. the average OF which should be about 20 runs. Rfield puts him at just -1 run relative to the average LF while UZR does put him around 9-10 runs below the average LF. It's hard to know what to use as the positional adjustment to make Statcast and the others reasonably comparable.

The damning point was that in 2016, he was tied for 303rd among 310 (any opportunities) or 121st out of 128 (100+ opps) in 2016 and tied for 305 of 309 or 121 of 125. Kemp and Melky join him as repeaters at the bottom of the lists. So he would seem to be one of the 3 worst OFs in the game, not adjusting for position. And that's without a huge amount of PT over the last 2 years. But DRS recognizes how awful Kemp (-29 runs) and Melky (-20) have been over the last two years ... and fangraphs roughly agrees. But b-r considers Cespedes to be about 20 runs better than those guys and fangraphs around 8-10 runs better.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: March 21, 2018 at 12:11 AM (#5640737)
Uh, did you guys miss the "core power" video? Cespedes is great at everything.

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