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Friday, December 16, 2011

NY Post: Blue Jays believed to outbid Yankees, others for Darvish

Having made a posting bid above $40 million and possibly close to $50 million, the Blue Jays are the favorites to land the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish.

Dan Evensen Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:17 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, yankees

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   1. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 16, 2011 at 10:51 AM (#4017599)
Is it conceivable that they're taking so long to announce the winner because it's Toronto, and Darvish wanted to play in the United States, so he's saying he won't sign a contract with the Blue Jays? That would be unfortunate. (I should say that I love Canada, but who knows what Darvish is thinking?)
   2. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2011 at 10:59 AM (#4017600)
Cool. Go Blue Jays!
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 16, 2011 at 11:08 AM (#4017602)
According to MLBTR, the Nippon Ham is waiting until the deadline on Tuesday to accept the highest bid. So it hasn't leaked because it hasn't leaked from Nippon Ham. MLB doesn't actually know who had the highest bid - only the Japanese team that received the bids knows.
   4. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:09 PM (#4017606)
dang...good for Toronto
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:35 PM (#4017612)
The AL East is really going to be nuts next year.
   6. Gamingboy Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:38 PM (#4017615)
Is it conceivable that they're taking so long to announce the winner because it's Toronto, and Darvish wanted to play in the United States, so he's saying he won't sign a contract with the Blue Jays? That would be unfortunate. (I should say that I love Canada, but who knows what Darvish is thinking?)


I heard that he would prefer to play on the West Coast or at least a warm-weather climate (guess he's gotten sick of Sapporo), so while I don't think he'd outright refuse a contract with the Jays, he'll want a bigger contract, probably.

Still, if it were to happen, we'd have a guy who...
Has a Iranian father.
A Japanese mother.
Who met in America.
And who's son plays baseball in Canada.

And that's cool.
   7. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:32 PM (#4017633)
According to wikipedia, the posting team doesn't know the identity of the bidders:

After the allotted four days have passed, the Commissioner closes the bidding process and notifies the posted player's NPB team of the highest bid amount but not who the bidding team is.


Probably to prevent exactly the sort of shenanigans being discussed. If Darvish doesn't want to play for the winning bidder, he doesn't have to sign with them.

I think they're taking so long to accept because they are allowed to take so long to accept.
   8. formerly dp Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:23 PM (#4017660)
This will be a weird get for Toronto if it happens-- I don't see them being terribly competitive this year, so it's really about '13 and beyond.
   9. , Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:36 PM (#4017668)
Perhaps I'm misinformed, but I thought Toronto had a large and thriving Japanese population. Not that that means anything, but I can't imagine they'd be a bad place to land as a Japanese pitcher.

And I don't know about them not competing. The Yankees are old, the Sox look to be in some disarray. I'm not saying I'd put a lot of money on the Jays competing, but stranger things have certainly happened.
   10. Greg K Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:40 PM (#4017676)
Yeah I think the Jays certainly plan on competing soon. Wherever Darvish ends up I imagine it will be for several years. You can't wait until THE year to make all of your acquisitions.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:43 PM (#4017677)
Toronto is a pretty cosmopolitan city, and if you're Japanese, I can't imagine the difference between Toronto and Chicago from your perspective would be all that great. Some international FAs, at least in the NBA, seem to actually prefer Toronto because its so international, as opposed to say San Antonio, Texas.

And yea, this is probably more about the long-term, although Toronto could be pretty formidable next year, especially if they continue their pursuit of Gio Gonzalez. They only have Jose Bautista for so many years and you never know exactly when your "window" will open, so they're good enough to start trying to compete now.
   12. Greg K Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#4017679)
Perhaps I'm misinformed, but I thought Toronto had a large and thriving Japanese population.

Growing up I didn't know a great deal of Japanese people in Toronto, though it's a big city and has quite a few insular communities within it.
Wiki says 19,000 Japanese in the greater city in 2006. I think the big communities are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Carribean and Filipino
   13. Sheer Tim Foli Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#4017683)
This will be a weird get for Toronto if it happens-- I don't see them being terribly competitive this year, so it's really about '13 and beyond.


Doesn't the extra WC start 2012? I think they have the pieces to take a run at that spot anyway.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:57 PM (#4017686)
Doesn't the extra WC start 2012? I think they have the pieces to take a run at that spot anyway.

Unclear. Definitely for 2013, 2012 still under discussion.
   15. McCoy Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:59 PM (#4017691)
You can't wait until THE year to make all of your acquisitions.

Tell that to Cubs fans.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#4017696)
The AL East is really going to be nuts next year.

Toronto was 81-81 in 2011, doing well against everyone but the non-Baltimore part of its division(7-11, 6-12 & 8-10 against NY, Tampa Bay & Boston). If Darvish produces a couple more wins in each of those match-ups, Toronto is within hailing distance of the Wildcard even if that goal is more difficult for the top teams in a more evenly-balanced AL East.
   17. Matthew E Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:19 PM (#4017699)
None of these chickens have hatched yet, so as far as I'm concerned right now there are zero of them.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#4017702)
None of these chickens have hatched yet, so as far as I'm concerned right now there are zero of them.

But, at least for the first time in several years, there are the possibility of chickens hatching.
   19. Matthew E Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:26 PM (#4017706)
But, at least for the first time in several years, there are the possibility of chickens hatching.


Nonsense.

Chickens are abundant.
   20. Randy Jones Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:27 PM (#4017707)
With or without chickens, the Blue Jays are still ######.
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#4017712)
chickens don't hatch - eggs do
   22. Rojak the Giant Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:38 PM (#4017715)
Now if the Jays can just ink the guy with the white shirt in the stands to a two year extension, they could be off to the world series
   23. Dan In Toronto Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#4017724)
Look at the Ham Fighter's team pitching stats:
http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2011/stats/idp1_f.html

Obviously Darvish is their best pitcher. One thing that caught my eye is that their #2 pitcher is Bobby Keppel, who went 14-6 with a 3.22 ERA. In about 92 IP in MLB (2007-09), he had an ERA of 5.36 (1.66 WHIP), and in 6 AAA seasons (2004-2009), he had an ERA of 5.13 with a 1.52 WHIP. Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it. The level of competition is completely different. Will Darvish be a good pitcher here? Probably. Will he be worth CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay money? I doubt it.
   24. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#4017725)
With or without chickens, the Blue Jays are still ###### clucked.


FTFY.

I'll get excited about this when Darvish is at a press conference to announce his signing. The initial speculation piece I heard was along the lines of "well, the Jays could've offered 50 million, and that probably would be the high bid", so it's possible it's just talk. And even if they do win the posting rights, it's possible he won't sign.

Still, this would be an exciting move for the team.

Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it. The level of competition is completely different. Will Darvish be a good pitcher here? Probably. Will he be worth CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay money? I doubt it.

You shouldn't ignore general data about pitchers moving from Japan to MLB (or the opposite) because of one player. Also, this was a deadball year for Japanese baseball, so Keppel's ERA isn't that impressive. It's entirely possible that Darvish will pitch poorly due to health issues, or cultural issues, or because he can't adjust to the difference in the size and the seams of the baseball. That being said, he's a 25 year old pitcher who projects (given what we know, which really isn't enough) very well that a team can win the rights to exclusive negotiation with. That's worth, IMO, a good amount of money.
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:57 PM (#4017730)
Will he be worth CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay money? I doubt it.


Does anyone really expect the signing team to outlay that kind of money though?
   26. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:09 PM (#4017736)

Does anyone really expect the signing team to outlay that kind of money though?


IIRC, posted players usually get a contract around the posting fee. Dice-K got 50 million over 6 six years, which was close to the Red Sox 55 million posting fee. Igawa got 20 million over 5 years for the 26 million the Yankees bid.

If Darvish's bid is in the neighbourhood of 50 million, then the total cost for 5-6 years will be around or over 100 million. That's pretty much Halladay money.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:10 PM (#4017737)
Does anyone really expect the signing team to outlay that kind of money though?

The Red Sox expenditure on Matsuzaka was pretty close. $103M over 6 years. Halladay's making $20M per, CC $23M.
   28. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:11 PM (#4017739)
Does anyone really expect the signing team to outlay that kind of money though?


He'll get less than Sabathia (6/182) and more than Halladay (3/60) but Cliff Lee money (5/120) seems like a very reasonable estimate if the bit is truly 50+. The Sox spent ~110 on Matsuzaka with a 51 million dollar bid.

Cokes all around.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:13 PM (#4017744)
Sabathia (6/182)

Sabathia got 5/127 or 6/147 depending on whether the option vests/is exercised. Or, 7/161 if you're talking about the last contact.
   30. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:15 PM (#4017748)
If Darvish's bid is in the neighbourhood of 50 million, then the total cost for 5-6 years will be around or over 100 million. That's pretty much Halladay money.


That seems like $16-17 million per year, which is a less than Halladay (although for some reason I thought he was making more) and much less than Sabathia. I guess I am just quibbling.
   31. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:19 PM (#4017754)
Chickens are abundant.


That would explain all the chicken####.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#4017756)
That seems like $16-17 million per year, which is a less than Halladay (although for some reason I thought he was making more) and much less than Sabathia. I guess I am just quibbling.

Dice-K went for $17M per (all-in), Darvish should cost more (passage of time, better pitcher).
   33. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:22 PM (#4017758)
Sabathia (6/182)

Sabathia got 5/127 or 6/147 depending on whether the option vests/is exercised. Or, 7/161 if you're talking about the last contact.


According to BBRef it's 8-182 (I mistyped the "6" as an "8"). Looks like they are combining the two deals.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:25 PM (#4017761)
According to BBRef it's 8-182 (I mistyped the "6" as an "8"). Looks like they are combining the two deals.

I go by Cots, but in any case, he makes $23M per year, not $30M.
   35. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#4017765)
I go by Cots, but in any case, he makes $23M per year, not $30M.


Yeah I was wrong.

I thought BBRef got their data from Cot's? No?
   36. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#4017777)
Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it.


Colby Lewis did.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#4017785)
Yeah I was wrong.

I thought BBRef got their data from Cot's? No?


No biggy, just wanted to clarify. Don't know.
   38. CFiJ Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#4017832)
I think they're taking so long to accept because they are allowed to take so long to accept.

This. Japanese companies are slooooow moving. No one has the power to simply make decisions. It has to be discussed and discussed and a consensus reached by many people. In fact, the Nippon Ham Fighters baseball club may be entirely willing to accept the bid, but it has to passed on to and cleared by various people in the parent company.
   39. Kyle S at work Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#4017848)
I'm surprised some reporter hasn't worked the phones, gotten his contacts at teams to admit privately what they bid, and disclosed a guess of the winning bidder using that data. Isn't it likely that this column is the result of such work?
   40. Swedish Chef Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#4017858)
Isn't it likely that this column is the result of such work?

It only takes one "no comment" to derail the whole premise though, but the article would still be written with a few more qualifications. I seem to remember that the Mets were the rumored destination for Dice-K. Turns out they bid high, but not high enough.
   41. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:52 PM (#4017860)
Isn't it likely that this column is the result of such work?


This column was written by George A. King III, making it highly unlikely that any actual reporting work was involved.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:52 PM (#4017861)
I'm surprised some reporter hasn't worked the phones, gotten his contacts at teams to admit privately what they bid, and disclosed a guess of the winning bidder using that data. Isn't it likely that this column is the result of such work?


The second half of your post seems to contradict the first...

But yes that's probably what happened. I think the Red Sox were similarly sourced as the highest Matsuzaka bid a few days before it was official.
   43. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:58 PM (#4017866)
I'm surprised some reporter hasn't worked the phones, gotten his contacts at teams to admit privately what they bid, and disclosed a guess of the winning bidder using that data. Isn't it likely that this column is the result of such work?


I suspect part of it is the teams involved. If you're the Blue Jays there really is no benefit to disclosing the amount of your bid right now and I get the sense that the rest of the bids are going to be more modest than was expected. Just based on what I've read I have a hunch the Blue Jays absolutely blew everyone away on this one but I see no reason for them to want that to leak.

Contrast that with the Matsuzaka dealings. I think the Mets and Sox both had some desire to at least prove they were hanging with the Yankees whether or not they won the bid. My sense is the Blue Jays wouldn't get any real PR benefit from a "close but no cigar" result. Those who follow the Blue Jays can certainly refute that though.
   44. Greg K Posted: December 16, 2011 at 06:07 PM (#4017875)
My sense is the Blue Jays wouldn't get any real PR benefit from a "close but no cigar" result. Those who follow the Blue Jays can certainly refute that though.

You're probably right. However within the Jays community there has been a certain amount of animosity towards AA in the past month for his talk about "payroll limits". For the past 18 months we've been led to believe the Jays were close to getting that big payroll bump that would put them over the top. Then in an interview a couple weeks ago AA appeared to back-track on that. (I wonder whether that was merely playing it low-key on the posting bid). Anyway, that seemed to leave some Jays fans unimpressed. Which is a long way of saying a "close but no cigar" bid could be at least somewhat helpful. I think there's more than a few Jays fans that are pleased with the high bid on Darvish simply because it's evidence that Rogers is now willing to spend.

Having said all that, I agree that I don't think that's a HUGE incentive for the Jays to leak anything. But if there's one team that could probably benefit from the PR of a big, but not big enough bid this week, it's the Jays.
   45. Adam Starblind Posted: December 16, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#4017913)
One thing that caught my eye is that their #2 pitcher is Bobby Keppel, who went 14-6 with a 3.22 ERA. In about 92 IP in MLB (2007-09), he had an ERA of 5.36 (1.66 WHIP), and in 6 AAA seasons (2004-2009), he had an ERA of 5.13 with a 1.52 WHIP. Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it.


Hey, that's One Time Top Mets Pitching Prospect Bobby Keppel.
   46. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 16, 2011 at 08:10 PM (#4017989)
I go by Cots, but in any case, he makes $23M per year, not $30M.

It's close to 30 once you factor in the extra buffet costs.

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