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1. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: December 16, 2011 at 11:51 AM (#4017599)I heard that he would prefer to play on the West Coast or at least a warm-weather climate (guess he's gotten sick of Sapporo), so while I don't think he'd outright refuse a contract with the Jays, he'll want a bigger contract, probably.
Still, if it were to happen, we'd have a guy who...
Has a Iranian father.
A Japanese mother.
Who met in America.
And who's son plays baseball in Canada.
And that's cool.
Probably to prevent exactly the sort of shenanigans being discussed. If Darvish doesn't want to play for the winning bidder, he doesn't have to sign with them.
I think they're taking so long to accept because they are allowed to take so long to accept.
And I don't know about them not competing. The Yankees are old, the Sox look to be in some disarray. I'm not saying I'd put a lot of money on the Jays competing, but stranger things have certainly happened.
And yea, this is probably more about the long-term, although Toronto could be pretty formidable next year, especially if they continue their pursuit of Gio Gonzalez. They only have Jose Bautista for so many years and you never know exactly when your "window" will open, so they're good enough to start trying to compete now.
Growing up I didn't know a great deal of Japanese people in Toronto, though it's a big city and has quite a few insular communities within it.
Wiki says 19,000 Japanese in the greater city in 2006. I think the big communities are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Carribean and Filipino
Doesn't the extra WC start 2012? I think they have the pieces to take a run at that spot anyway.
Unclear. Definitely for 2013, 2012 still under discussion.
Tell that to Cubs fans.
Toronto was 81-81 in 2011, doing well against everyone but the non-Baltimore part of its division(7-11, 6-12 & 8-10 against NY, Tampa Bay & Boston). If Darvish produces a couple more wins in each of those match-ups, Toronto is within hailing distance of the Wildcard even if that goal is more difficult for the top teams in a more evenly-balanced AL East.
But, at least for the first time in several years, there are the possibility of chickens hatching.
Nonsense.
Chickens are abundant.
http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2011/stats/idp1_f.html
Obviously Darvish is their best pitcher. One thing that caught my eye is that their #2 pitcher is Bobby Keppel, who went 14-6 with a 3.22 ERA. In about 92 IP in MLB (2007-09), he had an ERA of 5.36 (1.66 WHIP), and in 6 AAA seasons (2004-2009), he had an ERA of 5.13 with a 1.52 WHIP. Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it. The level of competition is completely different. Will Darvish be a good pitcher here? Probably. Will he be worth CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay money? I doubt it.
FTFY.
I'll get excited about this when Darvish is at a press conference to announce his signing. The initial speculation piece I heard was along the lines of "well, the Jays could've offered 50 million, and that probably would be the high bid", so it's possible it's just talk. And even if they do win the posting rights, it's possible he won't sign.
Still, this would be an exciting move for the team.
Did Bobby Keppel suddenly learn how to be a really good pitcher in Japan? I doubt it. The level of competition is completely different. Will Darvish be a good pitcher here? Probably. Will he be worth CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay money? I doubt it.
You shouldn't ignore general data about pitchers moving from Japan to MLB (or the opposite) because of one player. Also, this was a deadball year for Japanese baseball, so Keppel's ERA isn't that impressive. It's entirely possible that Darvish will pitch poorly due to health issues, or cultural issues, or because he can't adjust to the difference in the size and the seams of the baseball. That being said, he's a 25 year old pitcher who projects (given what we know, which really isn't enough) very well that a team can win the rights to exclusive negotiation with. That's worth, IMO, a good amount of money.
Does anyone really expect the signing team to outlay that kind of money though?
IIRC, posted players usually get a contract around the posting fee. Dice-K got 50 million over 6 six years, which was close to the Red Sox 55 million posting fee. Igawa got 20 million over 5 years for the 26 million the Yankees bid.
If Darvish's bid is in the neighbourhood of 50 million, then the total cost for 5-6 years will be around or over 100 million. That's pretty much Halladay money.
The Red Sox expenditure on Matsuzaka was pretty close. $103M over 6 years. Halladay's making $20M per, CC $23M.
He'll get less than Sabathia (6/182) and more than Halladay (3/60) but Cliff Lee money (5/120) seems like a very reasonable estimate if the bit is truly 50+. The Sox spent ~110 on Matsuzaka with a 51 million dollar bid.
Cokes all around.
Sabathia got 5/127 or 6/147 depending on whether the option vests/is exercised. Or, 7/161 if you're talking about the last contact.
That seems like $16-17 million per year, which is a less than Halladay (although for some reason I thought he was making more) and much less than Sabathia. I guess I am just quibbling.
That would explain all the chicken####.
Dice-K went for $17M per (all-in), Darvish should cost more (passage of time, better pitcher).
According to BBRef it's 8-182 (I mistyped the "6" as an "8"). Looks like they are combining the two deals.
I go by Cots, but in any case, he makes $23M per year, not $30M.
Yeah I was wrong.
I thought BBRef got their data from Cot's? No?
Colby Lewis did.
I thought BBRef got their data from Cot's? No?
No biggy, just wanted to clarify. Don't know.
This. Japanese companies are slooooow moving. No one has the power to simply make decisions. It has to be discussed and discussed and a consensus reached by many people. In fact, the Nippon Ham Fighters baseball club may be entirely willing to accept the bid, but it has to passed on to and cleared by various people in the parent company.
It only takes one "no comment" to derail the whole premise though, but the article would still be written with a few more qualifications. I seem to remember that the Mets were the rumored destination for Dice-K. Turns out they bid high, but not high enough.
This column was written by George A. King III, making it highly unlikely that any actual reporting work was involved.
The second half of your post seems to contradict the first...
But yes that's probably what happened. I think the Red Sox were similarly sourced as the highest Matsuzaka bid a few days before it was official.
I suspect part of it is the teams involved. If you're the Blue Jays there really is no benefit to disclosing the amount of your bid right now and I get the sense that the rest of the bids are going to be more modest than was expected. Just based on what I've read I have a hunch the Blue Jays absolutely blew everyone away on this one but I see no reason for them to want that to leak.
Contrast that with the Matsuzaka dealings. I think the Mets and Sox both had some desire to at least prove they were hanging with the Yankees whether or not they won the bid. My sense is the Blue Jays wouldn't get any real PR benefit from a "close but no cigar" result. Those who follow the Blue Jays can certainly refute that though.
You're probably right. However within the Jays community there has been a certain amount of animosity towards AA in the past month for his talk about "payroll limits". For the past 18 months we've been led to believe the Jays were close to getting that big payroll bump that would put them over the top. Then in an interview a couple weeks ago AA appeared to back-track on that. (I wonder whether that was merely playing it low-key on the posting bid). Anyway, that seemed to leave some Jays fans unimpressed. Which is a long way of saying a "close but no cigar" bid could be at least somewhat helpful. I think there's more than a few Jays fans that are pleased with the high bid on Darvish simply because it's evidence that Rogers is now willing to spend.
Having said all that, I agree that I don't think that's a HUGE incentive for the Jays to leak anything. But if there's one team that could probably benefit from the PR of a big, but not big enough bid this week, it's the Jays.
Hey, that's One Time Top Mets Pitching Prospect Bobby Keppel.
It's close to 30 once you factor in the extra buffet costs.
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