It's the least he could do.

Was his work ethic questionable when he was dating Alyssa Milano?

Baseball needs more pitchers like Carl Pavano.

I suggest Pescara of the Pizza 'n' Pasta League.

He'll be in the rotation next year. Mark it.

The Yankees were fools when they signed Pavano and Wright. Anyone with a brain knew this before the ink dried on those absurd contracts. This is why there are no World Series championships in NYC over the past 4 years and they sit in Boston.

Don't forget Womack, Beano. That offseason was the worst in my entire fandom life.

Pavano, 31, can’t return to Arizona because his questionable work ethic ticked off fitness guru Brett Fischer last winter.

I like that if you piss off some guy I've never heard of you can never return to a STATE.

Don't forget Womack, Beano. That offseason was the worst in my entire fandom life.

And passing on Beltran for Randy Johnson. What a train wreck that whole off-season was. Thank god for Cano and Wang.

Anyone with a brain knew this before the ink dried on those absurd contracts.

As Hawkins is about to sign.

I think that Yankee fans overrate both Cano and Wang because of the circumstances in which they were brought up and who they were replacing. Two of the least popular Yankees of the last ten years were Womack and Brown, and Cano and Wang essentially took their jobs. It always makes a fanbase happy when minor-league assets seize the job of an underproducing mercenary with no ties to the team.

I'm not trying to smack down Cano or Wang, both of whom are special players.

Pavano, 31, can’t return to Arizona

That's ok, man. New Mexico has about the same weather and is much more laid back.

Beano, in the interest of complete honesty on my part, I thought the Pavano signing, all told, was a good one. I thought the Yankees needed another starter and he was the best non-Pedro one available. My thought was that their choices were: Pavano, Wright, Milton, or Clement. I'm not happy with the two they grabbed, but arguably there weren't a better two to have. Even Pedro completely broke down.

As Hawkins is about to sign.

At least that's a one-year deal, so they can cut him in May.

Pavano, Wright, Milton, or Clement

Or Lieber and El Duque.

Nothing great in those two, but better than Wright and Pavano. Cheaper, too.

The Yankees were fools when they signed Pavano and Wright. Anyone with a brain knew this before the ink dried on those absurd contracts. This is why there are no World Series championships in NYC over the past 4 years and they sit in Boston.

Didn't the guy who constructed those championship teams for Boston also want Pavano? Wasn't the rumor that Pavano was actually offered more from the Sox?

Nothing great in those two, but better than Wright and Pavano. Cheaper, too.

At that time, Larry, I would have argued that while they were better bets than Wright, they were not better than Pavano.

I meant what they've done, not what could be expected.

I'm just trying to take some responsibility. I find it very difficult to unload on the FO with both barrels blazing re: Pavano. Mostly because I would have done the same deal as they did, given what I knew then.

Pavano's B-Ref page is poignant. Even his virtual cyber-sponsor feels overcharged.

The Pavano signing was inexcusable the second it was made. He had been an injury prone, mediocre pitcher his entire career up until his walk year when he had an obviously flukey ERA.

There was no way to know it would turn out this badly, but it should have been clear it was a mistake.

"New Mexico has about the same weather and is much more laid back."

Better food, too.

"Didn't the guy who constructed those championship teams for Boston also want Pavano?"

IIRC, they were interested in part because of the "local boy" thing.

I think Pavano could be of use to somebody next year (though not the Yankees), if he were free on the market.

The Pavano signing was inexcusable the second it was made. He had been an injury prone, mediocre pitcher his entire career up until his walk year when he had an obviously flukey ERA.

That depends upon expectations. I think the FO wanted to sign a youngish #3 starter with upside, which Pavano was in spades. If he could have thrown three 100 ERA+ seasons (of about 150 innings each, or more) and an injury partial, I say the four-year contract would have been worth my team's money.

All that said, I agree with Lassus in #5. Pavano will start games for the Yankees in 2008.

The Yankees were fools when they signed Pavano and Wright. Anyone with a brain knew this before the ink dried on those absurd contracts. This is why there are no World Series championships in NYC over the past 4 years and they sit in Boston.

Let's also not forget that the Yankees were close to a deal with Eric Milton, and went to Wright only when that deal fell apart. Nobody who spent big $ for pitching that year comes out looking very good...

As I recall, when they originally wanted to sign Wright, the Baseball Almighty sent plagues of locusts at Tampa and then slaid the first-born son of all NYY execs. And caused Jaret to flunk his physical.

Nobody who spent big $ for pitching that year comes out looking very good...

You can drop "that year" from that statement and it's still almost universally true. What's the last huge contract for a pitcher that worked out well for the team that signed it? I guess Pedro Martinez... I'm sure there are a couple others, but they're definitely exceptions, not the rule.

What's the last huge contract for a pitcher that worked out well for the team that signed it?

From that very offseason, 640 IP, 119 ERA+ for the first three years of a 4/36 contract. If Pavano's contract was huge, that counts too.

Excellent, Matt. And I remember Plaschke, and most everyone else in the MSM and even some of us stats people, ripping Paul DePodesta a new one for that contract. Whatever information DePodesta had that made him so sure Lowe would fit Dodger Stadium like a glove, it was damn good.

What's the last huge contract for a pitcher that worked out well for the team that signed it? I guess Pedro Martinez... I'm sure there are a couple others, but they're definitely exceptions, not the rule.

It's going to be hard to beat Randy Johnson's $53 million, four-year, four-Cy Young Awards deal with Arizona.

5 yrs, 28 mil, 3 cys, other 2 times in the top 5..

EDIT : And from the same offseason, 6 yrs, 44 mil, just 1 MVP. And you can say, it also led to BTF being what it is today.

Lowe was pretty unlucky in 2004. His FIP ERA was 4.33 and had he posted an ERA close to that, his ERA+ would have been around 110. Lowe was really lucky in 2002, about neutral in 2003, and unlucky in 2004. Overall, his ERA+ was around 120-125 over that time as a starter and his FIP was around 4.10. I felt the contract he got was excessive at the time but I had a feeling that he was going to be good for the Dodgers. I don't think his performance is that surprising in hindsight considering he was moving from the DH league and a hitter's park to the NL and a pitcher's park.

Whatever information DePodesta had that made him so sure Lowe would fit Dodger Stadium like a glove, it was damn good.

He knew about the NL/AL difference before everyone else.

Mussina's original Yankee contract (2001-2006) served them pretty well: 92-53, 3.80, average 200 IP per year.

Didn't the guy who constructed those championship teams for Boston also want Pavano? Wasn't the rumor that Pavano was actually offered more from the Sox?

That was hardly a vintage Theo offseason though, was it?

Renteria was a bust, Clement was a bust and got hurt. Miller and Mantei were projects but turned out poorly. Wells was OK.

It's unpossible to think now, but I thought Theo was in a bit of trouble after 2005 and 2006. I hated that 2005 team.

In general, the Red Sox big free agent signings probably have been less than spectacular under Epstein. The smaller ones and trades have been much more productive and he's done a very good job with the farm system.

Why would they be worried if he comes back early and pitches for another team? I would think of that as more as a benefit to the Yankees.

Because if for some weird reason Pavano is able to pitch half-way decently in AAA in the latter half of 2008, the Yanks can trade him so as to(a) save some money/have money picked up by insurance; and (b) maybe get something for their troubles.

I remember thinking the Red Sox alleged offer of 3/27 to Lowe was on the high side. 4/36? That's crazy talk! I thought Pavano was solid and I though Clement was even better.

Two of the better recent mega-investments in pitchers are Roy Halladay and John Smoltz: somewhat overlooked because they stayed with the same club.

Of the contracts mentioned in this thread...

Worked: Lowe, Smoltz, Pedro #1, Halladay, Johnson, Mussina
Didn't: Pedro #2, Wright, Milton, Pavano, Clement

Interesting that all but one of the good contracts was for someone that's a HOFer (Pedro, Johnson), borderline HOFer (Mussina, Smoltz) or has HOF talent (Halladay) and only one of the bad ones was a pitcher that fits in one of those categories. It might be useful to look at all the big contracts given to pitchers in the last decade or so and see if that split continues.

Edit: Obviously a contract for one of the best pitchers in the game is more likely to work out well because of the caliber of talent, but that's not what I was getting at. I wonder how often it is that contracts given to decent pitchers result in significant underperformance even from reasonable expectations whether due to injuries or just plain getting worse, and conversely how rare it is that a big contract to a great pitcher fails due to the same pitfalls. That's basically an accepted (though infrequently practiced) truism, the star players are worth the huge contracts but the mid-range talents generally won't provide a good return even for a fair amount less money than the stars. A lot of people are openly wondering whether even Santana is worth the risk a huge and long contract would have for a team but it's probably the best course of action if you want to actually get something out of a free agent starter.

Didn't: Pedro #2, Wright, Milton, Pavano, Clement

If Pedro gives them 180-200 or so innings of 125 ERA+ pitching in 2008, he'll have given the Mets 560-580 innings with an ERA+ of 125. That's about three solid seasons. If he gives them that, I think the Mets would be happy with the investment considering the other things he brought to the franchise.

For the Yankees, which is what this was all about, I don't think Pedro would have been a good investment in the 2004 off-season, given his injuries. They needed a full-timer who wasn't going to necessarily give them great ERAs, not someone who puts up partials and pitches well when he does.

Of all of the pitching available that year, Pedro's injury history told me that he was by far the most likely to break down completely. I thought - for the Yankees - that Pavano was a better signing than Pedro would have been. I was almost certainly wrong about that.

But seriously, I'd be unbelievably shocked if Pedro puts up 180 good innings in 2008.

I'm pretty sure the Tigers offered Carl more money than NY. Not quite as big a bullet dodged as the Juan Gonzalez 140M extension (which, IIRC, would have expired just this season), but a bullet dodged nonetheless.

But seriously, I'd be unbelievably shocked if Pedro puts up 180 good innings in 2008.

Unbelievably shocked? I wouldn't bet the house on it happening but I wouldn't bet against it either. Pedro's a pretty unqiue pitcher in that he is able to get strikeouts even without a 90 mph fastball. In his last 3 starts, he struck put 24 of the 81 (29.6%) batters he faced while walking only 3. He faced were the Phillies and the Marlins in 2 of those games and the Cardinals in the other. Florida and Philly are two of the better hitting teams in the National League. Considering he'll be 1.5 years removed from the surgery, I think he has a good shot of having a quality season in 2008.