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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

N.Y. Sun: Marchman: Filling Out the American League All Star Ballot

Chase Jeter?...Ah, He gets that all the time.

Second base

Chase Utley, Phillies (.309/.401/.636)

The Phillies may not actually play in the American League, but I’d rather see Utley play second base for two teams in one game than watch anyone who’s actually eligible. The Yankees’ Robinson Cano is hitting like Rey Ordonez, Boston’s Dustin Pedroia is proving the skeptics right, Texas’s Ian Kinsler is a sketchy defender with inflated RBI totals, and the rest of the field ranges from moderately to profoundly uninspiring. Utley, meanwhile, is truly great. Thus, I wrote in his name, and encourage you to do the same.

Shortstop

Derek Jeter, Yankees (.273/.329/.379)

The weird thing here is that as unimpressive a season as Jeter is having, he still may be the best shortstop in the league. Texas’s Michael Young has a better batting line (.298/.348/.420), but it’s not all that much better once you account for ballpark effects, and whatever you think of Jeter’s defense, it’s surely better than Young’s. One possible explanation for Jeter’s off-year: He’s about to turn 34. Bill Clinton was still president when he had his best year, and the iPod hadn’t yet been invented.

Repoz Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:10 PM | 61 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, special topics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2822480)
Kinsler is getting on base at a .354 clip and slugging at a .486 clip. The .840 OPS isn't exactly making mouths drop, but he is not some scrub. Oh yeah, he's 17-for-18 (94.4%) in stolen bases.

Among AL 2B, it's Kinsler and Brian Roberts followed by a whole lot of nothing.
   2. Rusty Priske Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:38 PM (#2822486)
Yes to Kinsler.


Crede deserves the spot over A-Rod if you believe it should go to the player playing better this year.
   3. Danny Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2822492)
Crede deserves the spot over A-Rod if you believe it should go to the player playing better this year.

In what way is Crede having a better year?
   4. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2822501)
Jeter can not hit right now, and I'm not sure why because he's healthy. On the other hand, his defense has been down right acceptable, so even without the bat, he's not hurting the team this year. I'm holding out for a June '04 or a July '03 to turn his numbers around.
   5. The Good Face Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:55 PM (#2822506)
Kinsler's not as good as Utley, but that hardly means he's not a deserving All Star. His hitting and baserunning make him a damn valuable player, especially with the lowered offensive levels this year.

I don't really see how Crede could be considered over A-Rod. 35 PA doesn't make up for 40 points of OPS+. Especially since A-Rod has been outstanding defensively and on the bases.
   6. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:57 PM (#2822507)
Oh yeah, A-rod has been lights out defensively this year (Cano has been at second too, but who cares, he can't ####### hit).
   7. DKDC Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2822514)
I'm not sure why he's picking on the AL second basemen.

Kinsler and Roberts are comfortably outhitting all AL shortstops.
   8. Randy Jones Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:05 PM (#2822518)
Are Matsui and Giambi not on the ballot or is Marchman just ignoring them?
   9. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:25 PM (#2822541)
Mark Ellis, asshats.
   10. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:26 PM (#2822543)
Well, I'm guessing Matsui isn't enough of a star for Marchman, it's not like he's ever been voted to an All-Star game before or anything.

I think not mentioning Giambi for first is legit. His glove and his lack of PT probably knocks him down below Morneau and Youkilis.

I really don't get what's wrong with Brian Roberts, if you don't like Kinsler's D, Roberts is probably the 3rd best 2nd baseman in the Majors, and he's been good for four years now, what else does he need to do to meet Marchman's standards?
   11. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:27 PM (#2822546)
Among AL 2B, it's Kinsler and Brian Roberts followed by a whole lot of nothing.

Well, so far. Pedroia is a pretty good player still, despite his slow start. I'd take either of the guys you mentioned first though, even accounting for said slow start.
   12. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2822549)
Mark Ellis, asshats.

Defense doesn't count, I guess.
   13. karlmagnus Posted: June 17, 2008 at 01:48 PM (#2822565)
The man's an idiot. Where's Manny?
   14. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2008 at 02:09 PM (#2822587)
The man's an idiot. Where's Manny?
The 3 OF he picked were Hamilton, Sizemore and Upton. Of those, Sizemore probably deserves it ahead of Manny, and Hamilton is such a weird guy in the context of these things, I don't really know if you can critize it.

That being said, I might've taken Manny over Upton, but I would've taken Drew over both of them. He's the VORP leader of the team with the best record in the league. That sounds like an all-star to me.
   15. Melo's Love Handles (NJ) Posted: June 17, 2008 at 02:21 PM (#2822599)
and Hamilton is such a weird guy in the context of these things, I don't really know if you can critize it.

Couldn't a case be made that Hamilton, like Sizemore, deserves it over Manny on the merits?

That being said, I might've taken Manny over Upton,

This is also strange to me. Upton seems to be just as good an offensive player as Ramirez at this point and a superior defender.
   16. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2822608)
This is also strange to me. Upton seems to be just as good an offensive player as Ramirez at this point and a superior defender.
That's partially just how I vote. I'm somewhat from the Joe Sheehan more-than-this-year school of thought. That's why Hamilton is an odd case, because he's basically a one-year All-Star, but he has so much other stuff behind him that I don't quite know what to do with it.

Upton over Manny wouldn't be a terrible choice by any means. Like I said though, if a Red Sox OF is getting the shaft, it's Drew.
   17. bibigon Posted: June 17, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2822630)
Where's Nancy?
   18. Toolsy McClutch Posted: June 17, 2008 at 03:14 PM (#2822683)
I like it when non-stars make the All Star team, it gives those scrubs something to reach for. If you're just going to keep filling out the same names every year (Jeter??!?), why bother?
   19. Mudpout Posted: June 17, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2822686)
I'm just trying to figure out why he's encouraging us to do the same with second baseman. Because it might actually happen? Does he think that, in doing this, Akinori Iwamura, Aaron Hill, and all the other underperforming second basemen of the league will realize how much they have shamed the fans of the American League and suddenly play better? Seems like he's encouraging a protest vote, but I can't really see who the protest would be directed at.

Well I for one am voting for Rory Fitzpatrick as the starting second baseman of the AL.
   20. A triple short of the cycle Posted: June 17, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2822710)
Mark Ellis, asshats.

Defense doesn't count, I guess.


Ellis also has a 109 OPS+.

On the positive side, the complete lack of respect he gets (no All Star, no Gold Glove) should make it easier to re-sign him.
   21. John DiFool2 Posted: June 17, 2008 at 04:10 PM (#2822751)
The thin field for AL middle infielders bolsters my hypothesis that part of the offensive decline in the AL is because all of the good-to-great hitting middle infielders of c. 10 years ago are pretty much extinct there (NL has quite a few more).
   22. jim in providence Posted: June 17, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2822757)
On merits, Detroit's future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera probably deserves the nod above either Morneau or Boston's Kevin Youkilis, but he's on the ballot as a third baseman and the doughy Tigers rivals are notably outplaying him, making the effort it takes to write his name in seems just a bit much.

I haven't read such a horribly convoluted sentence since semester's end. It took me quite a while to recognize the (for me) fatal punctuation (should be "the doughy Tiger's rivals"). Still, some nasty antecedents there.

Youkilis and Morneau are having essentially identical seasons. Morneau plays for a poor Midwestern team, which is a good reason to vote for him, all else being equal.

It would appear that playing in a big east coast market tips the scales by almost 200 000 votes. Hell, I'd rather see Morneau win the vote (he's Canadian and not a redass, as far as I can tell), but it ain't happening.
   23. Randy Jones Posted: June 17, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2822786)
It would appear that playing in a big east coast market tips the scales by almost 200 000 votes. Hell, I'd rather see Morneau win the vote (he's Canadian and not a redass, as far as I can tell), but it ain't happening.

#### Justin Morneau, #### him up his stupid #######. He's already won a vote he didn't deserve to.
   24. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 17, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2822890)
It would appear that playing in a big east coast market tips the scales by almost 200 000 votes.

Yep, that explains why the NL Central is underrepresented by only having the Top 4 1B, 3 of the Top 5 2B, 3 of the Top 5 3B, 3 of the Top 4 C, only 2 of the Top 5 SS and the Top 5 OFs (and 11 of the Top 15 including M. Bourn!).

It's a shame that East Coast voting bias has Chase Utley and Chipper Jones on top at their positions.
   25. Vance W Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#2822934)
No mention of the AL outfielder leading the league in BA, OBP and Slugging.
   26. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#2822943)
No mention of the AL outfielder leading the league in BA, OBP and Slugging.

Milton Friedman? Berle? Something like that? We better start voting for him, actually, because I really believe he will find each one of us and kick our asses until we cry.
   27. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2822944)
No mention of the AL outfielder leading the league in BA, OBP and Slugging.
Maybe that's because he's the American League DH who is leading the league in all those things. That being said, he should've made the list over Ortiz (why vote for someone who almost certainly won't play?) and Thomas.
   28. Vance W Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2822957)
He's on the ballot as an outfielder and has played there a few games. Admittedly has little or no defensive value--although he did have a higlight reel throw the other day.
   29. Davo Malvolio Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#2822979)
Derek Jeter, Yankees (.273/.329/.379)


davoarid Posted: March 02, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2704379) (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/graziano_scouts_honor_yanks_lineup_outstripes_tigers/)

I just think (Jeter) has a very real risk of putting up a .270/.320/.380 type of season this year.


Boo yah!
   30. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#2822980)
He's on the ballot as an outfielder and has played there a few games. Admittedly has little or no defensive value--although he did have a higlight reel throw the other day.
I did see that throw, although with Brian Schneider running, it didn't have to be that great a throw?

In any case, Bradley should probably a reserve if he can't be voted as a DH. He's only played 125 defensive innings all season. That's just not enough for an All-Star outfielder.
   31. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2822986)
I did see that throw, although with Brian Schneider running, it didn't have to be that great a throw?

That was not a highlight reel throw. Jose Reyes probably wouldn't have scored on that shallow a flyball. It was a horrible send.
   32. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2822987)
In any case, Bradley should probably a reserve if he can't be voted as a DH. He's only played 125 defensive innings all season. That's just not enough for an All-Star outfielder.

It's enough for a gold glove, however.
   33. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: June 17, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2822988)
The AL starting first baseman should be Jason Giambi.
   34. Dizzypaco Posted: June 17, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2823011)
The AL starting first baseman should be Jason Giambi.

I'd take Youkilis over Giambi, at least in terms of performance this year. I haven't looked around enough to see if there are others I like better.
   35. rconn23 Posted: June 17, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2823027)
"Morneau plays for a poor Midwestern team, which is a good reason to vote for him, all else being equal; he's also managed to avoid getting into a fight with Manny Ramirez this year, unlike Youkilis, and that should count for something."

To answer both of those assertions, no, it isn't, and no, it really shouldn't. This kind logic is why sportwriters so often screw up the votes for postseason awards.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:47 AM (#2824188)
I haven't read such a horribly convoluted sentence since semester's end.

You need to read more of my posts.

Or not.
   37. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2824243)
After Ellis' big night:

Top AL 2B by OPS+ (minimum 200 PA):

Cnt Player            OPS+  PA Year Age
+----+-----------------+----+---+----+---+
 
1 Ian Kinsler        127 330 2008  26 
 2 Brian Roberts      123 304 2008  30 
 3 Mark Ellis         121 273 2008  31 
 4 Placido Polanco    105 273 2008  32 
 5 Mark Grudzielanek  100 234 2008  38 


And their UZR/150 through June 7th:

Kinsler: -15
Roberts: -13
Ellis: +28
   38. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 01:11 PM (#2824244)
So is Ellis' officially the most underrated player in baseball?
   39. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 18, 2008 at 01:15 PM (#2824245)
So is Ellis' officially the most underrated player in baseball?

Someone would have to take the time to rate him before he can ube underrated. It's as if he doesn't exist.
   40. Traderdave Posted: June 18, 2008 at 01:34 PM (#2824264)
Ellis is the best defensive 2B I have ever seen. It must be my praise that damns him.
   41. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2824284)
So is Ellis' officially the most underrated player in baseball?


Ellis isn't just the best defensive 2B in the league by advanced metrics, he also set the all-time MLB record for fielding percentage for a 2B in 2006. And the guy still can't get a Gold Glove.

He's an underrated hitter, as well, having put up a 109 OPS+ since missing the whole 2004 season. Only five 2B have a higher OPS+ in that span:

Cnt Player            OPS+   PA  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+----+
    
1 Chase Utley        136  2306 2005 2008 
    2 Jeff Kent          119  1898 2005 2008 
    3 Dan Uggla          118  1705 2006 2008 
    4 Brian Roberts      117  2289 2005 2008 
    5 Robinson Cano      110  2007 2005 2008 
    6 Mark Ellis         109  1901 2005 2008 
    7 Placido Polanco    108  1960 2005 2008 
    8 Orlando Hudson     102  2018 2005 2008 
    9 Ray Durham         100  1861 2005 2008 
   10 Ron Belliard        98  1844 2005 2008 
   42. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 18, 2008 at 02:10 PM (#2824288)
Back when I was a B-Pro subscriber, I e-mailed Joe Sheehan that he had missed Ellis completely when discussing who should be the comeback player of the year in 2005. I didn't argue that he should have won it, but that he was in the discussion. His response that Ellis couldn't be considered because he wasn't anything before the missed the 2004 season. (It's a good illustration of how little some of the B-Pro guys considered defense at the time.) I always got a kick out of that. And yeah, I'm a fanboy and all, but he's the best second baseman I've seen. Alomar was flashier, but Ellis has just as much range and surer hands. I still maintain that getting him as a throw in was the best thing Billy Beane has done. (Well, now the Mulder trade is, but before that!)
   43. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2824310)
I still maintain that getting him as a throw in was the best thing Billy Beane has done.

It's pretty cool how the primary player for Oakland in that deal (Damon) tanked, but they still ended up with 6+ years of All-Star performance from Ellis and 380 IP of 116 ERA+ goodness from Lidle.
   44. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: June 18, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2824320)
Jason Giambi. The arguments against him continue to vanish with every passing day.
   45. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2824331)
Thus, I wrote in his name, and encourage you to do the same.

Uh, Dude, if Utley is the second baseman for both teams then he never gets to bat. Don't you want to see him hit? I do.

Oh yeah, A-rod has been lights out defensively this year

In my observation, A-Rod routinely positions himself way too far off the line against righty hitters, even (and especially) when the guy pitching throws a lot of off-speed stuff and/or has a not-overpowering fastball (Mussina, Rasner, Ramirez, etc.). He's making as many "great" plays as he is because he is out of position.

Jeter can not hit right now, and I'm not sure why because he's healthy.


I am 85% convinced that Jeter is playing quite hurt. His body language sells it. I believe his left hip and his left shoulder are both bothering him quite a bit. Not quite Tiger-Woods'-knee hurt, but pretty achy.
   46. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:03 PM (#2824335)
He's making as many "great" plays as he is because he is out of position.
That's possible but he's rating really well in UZR and if he's making those plays on balls off the line, while persumably also picking up ones towards the middle that Jeter isn't getting, isn't that basically the definition of a great defensive player?
   47. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2824341)
I'm not sure how UZR is calculated, but A-Rod puts himself in a position to stop a lot of singles while allowing more doubles. Does UZR calculate the damage done by balls not fielded?
   48. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:09 PM (#2824342)
Jason Giambi. The arguments against him continue to vanish with every passing day.

Never been a fan of his rainbow pee juice.

And yeah, Ellis!
   49. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2824348)
Does UZR calculate the damage done by balls not fielded?

Yes.
   50. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2824349)
My AL all star team (I take into account defense and I don't give credit for prior years performance. I look only at 2008, sample size issues be damned)

C Mauer
1b Giambi
2b Ellis
3B Rodriguez
SS Michael Young by default (SS is a lot worse than 2B in the AL this year)
LF Upton
CF Hamilton
RF Drew
DH Bradley
   51. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:23 PM (#2824355)
Does UZR calculate the damage done by balls not fielded?
No, but it accounts for the # of balls fielded in each area by a typical third baseman, and compares the # each one is getting in those areas. Given that last I checked, A-Rod's number (+17, second best in the league) is frankly too good for your thoery. He'd have to getting to a huge number of balls to his left to make up for the ones that are supposedly flying by him down the line.

Stats aside, watching a lot of Yankee games, I haven't really seen anything visually to suggest that A-Rod plays too far off the line.
   52. Danny Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2824359)
To clarify my "yes" with RB's answer: If the Yankees are not fielding balls that other 3B generally field, A-Rod is being "penalized" for the typical damage those balls do.
   53. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2824362)
Roberts, Ellis, or Kinsler would all be fine choices for the AL all star team. Marchman's claim that 2B in the AL is an extremely weak position is idiotic -- holding up Utley as the standard makes no sense.
   54. DKDC Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2824367)
I think Ellis is a notch below Kinsler and Roberts even if you just look at this season.

You have to ding Ellis a bit for missing 10 games, while Roberts and Kinsler get not insignificant boosts for baserunning.

If you're willing to believe that Ellis is +40 runs/150 in the field compared to Roberts and Kinsler (per the early UZR numbers) I guess you could still rate Ellis higher, but I think that's unrealistic.
   55. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2824368)
Roberts, Ellis, or Kinsler would all be fine choices for the AL all star team. Marchman's claim that 2B in the AL is an extremely weak position is idiotic -- holding up Utley as the standard makes no sense.

It's also a missed opportunity to be the first non-Oakland writer to publicize Ellis. He could have been Ellis' Curt Gowdy!
   56. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2824370)
I think Ellis is a notch below Kinsler and Roberts even if you just look at this season.

At least we can all agree that Pedroia is a terrible choice.
   57. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2824383)
If the Yankees are not fielding balls that other 3B generally field, A-Rod is being "penalized" for the typical damage those balls do.

Balls not fielded by a third basemen do not do "typical damage." If he's routinely missing balls to his left, they're generally singles. If he's missing balls to his right, they're often doubles.

Of course A-Rod is going to field more balls the further he plays off the line. The closer you play to the line, the more your circle of range overlaps into foul territory. A-Rod, to my eye, doesn't make enough adjustments to the batter/pitcher matchup, and instead anchors himself to this point where the maximum amount of his range is in fair territory. Unfortunately, that sometimes means that the location that a groundball is more likely to go (and, in fact, do the most damage, as groundballs to third go) is at the fringe of his range, meaning sometimes he misses them and sometimes he makes a spectacular grab. These, to me, are balls that a better positioned third baseman makes in routine fashion.

I am not questioning A-Rod's hands or range or arm or athletic ability. I just don't think he reads situations very well as a third baseman, and his bench isn't helping him any. Where's Clete Boyer's insight when the Yankees need it?

Stats aside, watching a lot of Yankee games, I haven't really seen anything visually to suggest that A-Rod plays too far off the line.


I could be wrong. You have almost certainly seen more than I have. I have seen several instances this year, especially with Rasner on the mound, where I thought balls down the line should have been anticipated and fielded. Let's keep an eye on it and see if there's anything to this?
   58. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 18, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2824384)
I am 85% convinced that Jeter is playing quite hurt. His body language sells it. I believe his left hip and his left shoulder are both bothering him quite a bit. Not quite Tiger-Woods'-knee hurt, but pretty achy.

I don't see it. I see a guy whose legs look as fresh as they in the last three years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He's not getting on top of the ball anymore, maybe because he's dropping his shoulder, due to pain perhaps, I haven't seen many games while sober in the last couple of weeks so I can't really say for sure, but from what I have seen, I'd be shocked if there were something wrong with his lower half. The shoulder seems more plausible to me, but when did he hurt it?

As for A-rod, you and I are getting two completely different conclusions about the guy. I see a guy who looks real comfortable at his position and is playing everything perfectly. He's been getting his glove on everything near him this year and his arm has been near flawless, I don't see how you can possibly believe he's not playing great D at the hot corner.
   59. The Good Face Posted: June 18, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2824411)
As for A-rod, you and I are getting two completely different conclusions about the guy. I see a guy who looks real comfortable at his position and is playing everything perfectly. He's been getting his glove on everything near him this year and his arm has been near flawless, I don't see how you can possibly believe he's not playing great D at the hot corner.


Agreed. I've probably watched about 80% of Yankee games this year and A-Rod has just looked tremendous. With the numbers supporting it, I'm going to conclude he's just having a really good defensive year. He does seem to play slightly further off the line than most 3B, but it doesn't seem to be hurting him since he's making a ton of plays to his right and doesn't appear to go to his left as well. In fact, A-Rod realizing that may be what's led to his improved defense. His arm also looks better than in years past. He's coming over the top more and doing fewer sidearm flips of the ball. Even more impressive, after last night's game, his OPS+ is virtually identical to last year's awesomeness.

I have no idea if Jeter is injured, but he doesn't appear to be trying to drive the ball at the plate. He seems content to try to inside-out every pitch over the 2B's head. Could be an injury, fatigue, a slump, or maybe he's lost something at the plate. For a guy with his track record, I wouldn't panic over a mediocre half season.
   60. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2824936)
I think Ellis is a notch below Kinsler and Roberts even if you just look at this season.

You have to ding Ellis a bit for missing 10 games, while Roberts and Kinsler get not insignificant boosts for baserunning.

If you're willing to believe that Ellis is +40 runs/150 in the field compared to Roberts and Kinsler (per the early UZR numbers) I guess you could still rate Ellis higher, but I think that's unrealistic.


You don't need to believe anything close to that to prefer Ellis.

Player     BtR    FdR   Pos   Repl    RAA    RAR
Ellis      7.7   11.2   1.0    8.4   19.9   28.3
Kinsler   11.2   
-2.7   1.1   10.2    9.6   19.8
Roberts    9.5   
-0.8   1.1    9.4    9.8   19.2

Utley     22.9    1.0   1.1   10.0   25.0   35.0 


That's batting runs; my own ZR-based metric, which puts Roberts and Kinsler in the best possible light; a 20-run/650 PA replacement level (your 10-game ding); and a per-inning position adjustment (more ding).

Non-SB baserunning isn't closing that gap, as A) Ellis tends to fare quite well in those measures and B) even if he were a Molina, the spread between the very, very best and the very, very worst would be about six runs at this point in a season.
   61. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 18, 2008 at 09:55 PM (#2824938)
Shooty, your posts routinely make me chuckle.

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