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1. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 17, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2822480)Among AL 2B, it's Kinsler and Brian Roberts followed by a whole lot of nothing.
Crede deserves the spot over A-Rod if you believe it should go to the player playing better this year.
In what way is Crede having a better year?
I don't really see how Crede could be considered over A-Rod. 35 PA doesn't make up for 40 points of OPS+. Especially since A-Rod has been outstanding defensively and on the bases.
Kinsler and Roberts are comfortably outhitting all AL shortstops.
I think not mentioning Giambi for first is legit. His glove and his lack of PT probably knocks him down below Morneau and Youkilis.
I really don't get what's wrong with Brian Roberts, if you don't like Kinsler's D, Roberts is probably the 3rd best 2nd baseman in the Majors, and he's been good for four years now, what else does he need to do to meet Marchman's standards?
Well, so far. Pedroia is a pretty good player still, despite his slow start. I'd take either of the guys you mentioned first though, even accounting for said slow start.
Defense doesn't count, I guess.
That being said, I might've taken Manny over Upton, but I would've taken Drew over both of them. He's the VORP leader of the team with the best record in the league. That sounds like an all-star to me.
Couldn't a case be made that Hamilton, like Sizemore, deserves it over Manny on the merits?
That being said, I might've taken Manny over Upton,
This is also strange to me. Upton seems to be just as good an offensive player as Ramirez at this point and a superior defender.
Upton over Manny wouldn't be a terrible choice by any means. Like I said though, if a Red Sox OF is getting the shaft, it's Drew.
Well I for one am voting for Rory Fitzpatrick as the starting second baseman of the AL.
Defense doesn't count, I guess.
Ellis also has a 109 OPS+.
On the positive side, the complete lack of respect he gets (no All Star, no Gold Glove) should make it easier to re-sign him.
I haven't read such a horribly convoluted sentence since semester's end. It took me quite a while to recognize the (for me) fatal punctuation (should be "the doughy Tiger's rivals"). Still, some nasty antecedents there.
Youkilis and Morneau are having essentially identical seasons. Morneau plays for a poor Midwestern team, which is a good reason to vote for him, all else being equal.
It would appear that playing in a big east coast market tips the scales by almost 200 000 votes. Hell, I'd rather see Morneau win the vote (he's Canadian and not a redass, as far as I can tell), but it ain't happening.
#### Justin Morneau, #### him up his stupid #######. He's already won a vote he didn't deserve to.
Yep, that explains why the NL Central is underrepresented by only having the Top 4 1B, 3 of the Top 5 2B, 3 of the Top 5 3B, 3 of the Top 4 C, only 2 of the Top 5 SS and the Top 5 OFs (and 11 of the Top 15 including M. Bourn!).
It's a shame that East Coast voting bias has Chase Utley and Chipper Jones on top at their positions.
Milton Friedman? Berle? Something like that? We better start voting for him, actually, because I really believe he will find each one of us and kick our asses until we cry.
davoarid Posted: March 02, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2704379) (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/graziano_scouts_honor_yanks_lineup_outstripes_tigers/)
Boo yah!
In any case, Bradley should probably a reserve if he can't be voted as a DH. He's only played 125 defensive innings all season. That's just not enough for an All-Star outfielder.
That was not a highlight reel throw. Jose Reyes probably wouldn't have scored on that shallow a flyball. It was a horrible send.
It's enough for a gold glove, however.
I'd take Youkilis over Giambi, at least in terms of performance this year. I haven't looked around enough to see if there are others I like better.
To answer both of those assertions, no, it isn't, and no, it really shouldn't. This kind logic is why sportwriters so often screw up the votes for postseason awards.
You need to read more of my posts.
Or not.
Top AL 2B by OPS+ (minimum 200 PA):
Cnt Player OPS+ PA Year Age+----+-----------------+----+---+----+---+
1 Ian Kinsler 127 330 2008 26
2 Brian Roberts 123 304 2008 30
3 Mark Ellis 121 273 2008 31
4 Placido Polanco 105 273 2008 32
5 Mark Grudzielanek 100 234 2008 38
And their UZR/150 through June 7th:
Kinsler: -15
Roberts: -13
Ellis: +28
Someone would have to take the time to rate him before he can ube underrated. It's as if he doesn't exist.
Ellis isn't just the best defensive 2B in the league by advanced metrics, he also set the all-time MLB record for fielding percentage for a 2B in 2006. And the guy still can't get a Gold Glove.
He's an underrated hitter, as well, having put up a 109 OPS+ since missing the whole 2004 season. Only five 2B have a higher OPS+ in that span:
Cnt Player OPS+ PA From To+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+----+
1 Chase Utley 136 2306 2005 2008
2 Jeff Kent 119 1898 2005 2008
3 Dan Uggla 118 1705 2006 2008
4 Brian Roberts 117 2289 2005 2008
5 Robinson Cano 110 2007 2005 2008
6 Mark Ellis 109 1901 2005 2008
7 Placido Polanco 108 1960 2005 2008
8 Orlando Hudson 102 2018 2005 2008
9 Ray Durham 100 1861 2005 2008
10 Ron Belliard 98 1844 2005 2008
It's pretty cool how the primary player for Oakland in that deal (Damon) tanked, but they still ended up with 6+ years of All-Star performance from Ellis and 380 IP of 116 ERA+ goodness from Lidle.
Uh, Dude, if Utley is the second baseman for both teams then he never gets to bat. Don't you want to see him hit? I do.
Oh yeah, A-rod has been lights out defensively this year
In my observation, A-Rod routinely positions himself way too far off the line against righty hitters, even (and especially) when the guy pitching throws a lot of off-speed stuff and/or has a not-overpowering fastball (Mussina, Rasner, Ramirez, etc.). He's making as many "great" plays as he is because he is out of position.
Jeter can not hit right now, and I'm not sure why because he's healthy.
I am 85% convinced that Jeter is playing quite hurt. His body language sells it. I believe his left hip and his left shoulder are both bothering him quite a bit. Not quite Tiger-Woods'-knee hurt, but pretty achy.
Never been a fan of his rainbow pee juice.
And yeah, Ellis!
Yes.
C Mauer
1b Giambi
2b Ellis
3B Rodriguez
SS Michael Young by default (SS is a lot worse than 2B in the AL this year)
LF Upton
CF Hamilton
RF Drew
DH Bradley
Stats aside, watching a lot of Yankee games, I haven't really seen anything visually to suggest that A-Rod plays too far off the line.
You have to ding Ellis a bit for missing 10 games, while Roberts and Kinsler get not insignificant boosts for baserunning.
If you're willing to believe that Ellis is +40 runs/150 in the field compared to Roberts and Kinsler (per the early UZR numbers) I guess you could still rate Ellis higher, but I think that's unrealistic.
It's also a missed opportunity to be the first non-Oakland writer to publicize Ellis. He could have been Ellis' Curt Gowdy!
At least we can all agree that Pedroia is a terrible choice.
Balls not fielded by a third basemen do not do "typical damage." If he's routinely missing balls to his left, they're generally singles. If he's missing balls to his right, they're often doubles.
Of course A-Rod is going to field more balls the further he plays off the line. The closer you play to the line, the more your circle of range overlaps into foul territory. A-Rod, to my eye, doesn't make enough adjustments to the batter/pitcher matchup, and instead anchors himself to this point where the maximum amount of his range is in fair territory. Unfortunately, that sometimes means that the location that a groundball is more likely to go (and, in fact, do the most damage, as groundballs to third go) is at the fringe of his range, meaning sometimes he misses them and sometimes he makes a spectacular grab. These, to me, are balls that a better positioned third baseman makes in routine fashion.
I am not questioning A-Rod's hands or range or arm or athletic ability. I just don't think he reads situations very well as a third baseman, and his bench isn't helping him any. Where's Clete Boyer's insight when the Yankees need it?
Stats aside, watching a lot of Yankee games, I haven't really seen anything visually to suggest that A-Rod plays too far off the line.
I could be wrong. You have almost certainly seen more than I have. I have seen several instances this year, especially with Rasner on the mound, where I thought balls down the line should have been anticipated and fielded. Let's keep an eye on it and see if there's anything to this?
I don't see it. I see a guy whose legs look as fresh as they in the last three years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He's not getting on top of the ball anymore, maybe because he's dropping his shoulder, due to pain perhaps, I haven't seen many games while sober in the last couple of weeks so I can't really say for sure, but from what I have seen, I'd be shocked if there were something wrong with his lower half. The shoulder seems more plausible to me, but when did he hurt it?
As for A-rod, you and I are getting two completely different conclusions about the guy. I see a guy who looks real comfortable at his position and is playing everything perfectly. He's been getting his glove on everything near him this year and his arm has been near flawless, I don't see how you can possibly believe he's not playing great D at the hot corner.
Agreed. I've probably watched about 80% of Yankee games this year and A-Rod has just looked tremendous. With the numbers supporting it, I'm going to conclude he's just having a really good defensive year. He does seem to play slightly further off the line than most 3B, but it doesn't seem to be hurting him since he's making a ton of plays to his right and doesn't appear to go to his left as well. In fact, A-Rod realizing that may be what's led to his improved defense. His arm also looks better than in years past. He's coming over the top more and doing fewer sidearm flips of the ball. Even more impressive, after last night's game, his OPS+ is virtually identical to last year's awesomeness.
I have no idea if Jeter is injured, but he doesn't appear to be trying to drive the ball at the plate. He seems content to try to inside-out every pitch over the 2B's head. Could be an injury, fatigue, a slump, or maybe he's lost something at the plate. For a guy with his track record, I wouldn't panic over a mediocre half season.
You have to ding Ellis a bit for missing 10 games, while Roberts and Kinsler get not insignificant boosts for baserunning.
If you're willing to believe that Ellis is +40 runs/150 in the field compared to Roberts and Kinsler (per the early UZR numbers) I guess you could still rate Ellis higher, but I think that's unrealistic.
You don't need to believe anything close to that to prefer Ellis.
Player BtR FdR Pos Repl RAA RAR
Ellis 7.7 11.2 1.0 8.4 19.9 28.3
Kinsler 11.2 -2.7 1.1 10.2 9.6 19.8
Roberts 9.5 -0.8 1.1 9.4 9.8 19.2
Utley 22.9 1.0 1.1 10.0 25.0 35.0
That's batting runs; my own ZR-based metric, which puts Roberts and Kinsler in the best possible light; a 20-run/650 PA replacement level (your 10-game ding); and a per-inning position adjustment (more ding).
Non-SB baserunning isn't closing that gap, as A) Ellis tends to fare quite well in those measures and B) even if he were a Molina, the spread between the very, very best and the very, very worst would be about six runs at this point in a season.
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