The obvious greatness of Reyes and Wright made them immediate fixtures in the Mets’ lineups, but aside from them, Randolph hasn’t done a good job of handling younger players.

The solution: the Mets need to get rid of all young players.

I estimate there is 0% chance that the Mets will go with a six-man rotation for any length of time during the 2008 season. Thus, the need for Santana is all the greater.

The Mets have to get Santana. He's the equivalent to Mike Piazza circa 1998.

But the Mets are also a young team. Jose Reyes and David Wright haven't yet hit their primes,...

If David Wright hasn't hit his prime yet, he'll be better than Mike Schmidt.

Marchman says the darnedest things.

Assuming the Mets sign Livan Hernandez, they could put Pelfrey, Humber, or even Aaron Heilman a clear shot at a job by running a six-man rotation for a month or two at the beginning of the season, saving their best pitchers' arms for the stretch. Something like this could turn a weakness into a strength.

I'm pretty sure we'll see David Wright at catcher before we see this.

Assuming the Mets sign Livan Hernandez, they could put Pelfrey, Humber, or even Aaron Heilman a clear shot at a job by running a six-man rotation for a month or two at the beginning of the season

I'm pretty sure we'll see David Wright at catcher before we see this.

Don't be so dubious. Remember, they kept Pedro on five-days rest throughout his comeback last year. They could easily be thinking they'd like to do the same thing at least for the first part of 2008 as he continues to rebuild arm strength -- we really don't know. And if they're going to do that for Pedro, they're going to at least have to have a sixth spot starter, if not a regular six man rotation. To me, it all depends on Pedro (well, Pedro and whether they have any confidence at all on whomever it is who would fill that sixth spot).

This was good stuff from Marchman, I think. He hit the nail on the head in noting that the organization should have less of a win-now mentality than the Minaya/Randolph leadership team does, and that this could create incentives for them to behave in ways that are problematic for the franchise. I think Marchman overstates when he calls it "toxic," though, because frankly the conflict isn't as great as he thinks it is, even if it should be. The Wilpons have never shown much willingness to be patient, after all, and if the GM and manager are in win-now mode, that probably fits pretty well with what the bosses want.

Sam, Randolph and Minaya will get fired if they don't win the NL East in 2008 and make some noise in the playoffs. Believe me, they don't care what Mets fans have in plan for CGomez and FMartinez in 2012...

If David Wright hasn't hit his prime yet, he'll be better than Mike Schmidt.

Marchman says the darnedest things.

I've been seeing posters say that Wright is already in his prime every year of his career so far, I don't think I've seen another player where so many are convinced he's maxed out his abilities so soon.

The Mets are going to have to figure out a way to keep Pedro's and El Duque's innings down. I don't know whether this entails going to a six man rotation for an extended period or figuring out a way to give each of them six weeks vacation sometime around the all-star break. In any case, this is something the Mets have to plan for. They can't keep running those guys out there every fifth day only to find out that they are totally spent by September 1st.

Remember, they kept Pedro on five-days rest throughout his comeback last year.

I guess so. I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea for this year. It's just that it's hard to imagine Willie not riding his vets as hard as he can at the beginning of this season, August/September be damned.

I would really like to think this is one of those stories in which a few years from now, after Willie leads the Mets to a World Series championship, we'll read in his newly-released biography how the last month of last season, all of this offseason and this upcoming season constituted the defining stretch of his career... how these dark days tested him and how he ended up leading the Mets from eternal embarassment to absolute triumph.

But seeing as how these are the Mets and those types of stories happen to other teams, it's hard to imagine this season ending anything but badly. I dunno... just really not looking forward to this season.

kevin, I believe you mean "Will David Wright ever become a better player than Dustin Pedroia?"

Willie is the wrong manager to get creative with the rotation. As Marchman states, he hasn’t always handled his pitching staff well.

I’ve always wondered why Peterson isn’t catching much flak over the collapse. Willie has gotten much of the blame, and rightly so, but shouldn’t he be on the firing line as well?

I don't think I've seen another player where so many are convinced he's maxed out his abilities so soon.

Try talking to Sox fans about Robinson Cano.

Or Melky Cabrera.

I don't think I've seen another player where so many are convinced he's maxed out his abilities so soon.

Try talking to Sox fans about Robinson Cano.
15. rfloh Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:05 AM (#2677595)
Or Melky Cabrera.

But that seems to be largely confined to Redsox fans, the "Wright is maxed out" sentiment, seems to be widespread among non-Mets fans in general.

Anyone know whether the Mets would lose a draft pick if they sign Livan Hernandez?

But that seems to be largely confined to Redsox fans, the "Wright is maxed out" sentiment, seems to be widespread among non-Mets fans in general.

Probably because Wright is already so good that any significant improvements in his game would put him in historically great territory, with Schmidt and A-Rod. It's certainly possible he'll make it, there's really nothing not to like about him a player, but it's usually safe to bet against ANY given player stepping up to a historically great level of sustained performance.

Also, he's, yanno, a Met. ;)

Random fact from HitTracker

David Wright led the NL in "Lucky" home runs, with 10

I’ve always wondered why Peterson isn’t catching much flak over the collapse. Willie has gotten much of the blame, and rightly so, but shouldn’t he be on the firing line as well?

Willie's inability to manage a pitching staff is readily apparent to most outsiders-

What role did Peterson have in the collapse? I have no idea.

How much input/influence does Peterson have on pitcher usage? no idea.

How much input/influence does Peterson have in personnel decisions? No idea- They trotted Peterson out to justify the Kazmir trade a few years ago- from what I saw of one interview his heart really wasn't in it- did he really have a role, or was he just being asked to fall on his sword so to speak?

what is Peterson's role? wasn't he supposed to be some type of mechanics guru when he was first hired? I don't think he's buddy buddy with the manager the way some ex-player pitching coaches on some teams are. I suspect that he mostly just works with pitchers, some he probably helps, some he has no impact, some he may actually hinder-

I suspect (and really have no way of knowing) that Willie doesn't really listen to him, unless it's something like, "Willie, so and so has a sore arm..."

Doe Omar listen to him, seek out his advise? Maybe, but I suspect that Omar listens to his Buddies more.

18: No. Livo is type B free agent, which is another reason the Mets should sign him.

Random fact from HitTracker

On that site "lucky" means homers that just cleared the fence.
Wright had 10, but his home park is Shea
Howard had 8, but his home park is in Philly


The odds are that all of Wright's "lucky" Shea homers are homers EVERYWHERE, whereas Howard's lucky Philly homers are not.

But that seems to be largely confined to Redsox fans, the "Wright is maxed out" sentiment, seems to be widespread among non-Mets fans in general.

I think that few people see Wright as a guy with monster HR potential, which limits his upside, unless he excels at every aspect of the game. His power has been pretty consistent over the past three years (ISO in the .220 range) and while he is excelling at every other part of the offensive game, how many people have put up a 170 OPS+ in the high offense era without hitting .370 or hitting 40+ HRs? I'm sure there are some, but I don't think there are many. How does Wright get to the next performance plateau without significantly increasing his power, something he has not done (which of course, does not make it impossible since he's 25 next year) since he's been in the majors? It just seems somewhat unlikely.

All 10 of Wright's "lucky" home runs were hit @ PHI [ducks]

Hey, lucky home runs count. It's not like Wright benefited from his ballpark for power, like Pedroia benefited from the Green Monster for his cheap doubles [runs]

Its seems that some of those lucky HRs might also be the ones he goes the opposite way. It seems like those are high flyballs that just keep carrying and barely clear when he hits them.

Besides his base running thats my favorite part of his game, his opposite field power.

If Wright posts a 150 OPS+ again this year, they should be pretty happy with that. I like that people have managed to overlook his 34-5 steals/cs this year to- 14 more steals than '06 with the same amount of CS...

I don't think I've seen another player where so many are convinced he's maxed out his abilities so soon.

Try talking to Sox fans about Robinson Cano.

It's just that we don't necessarily trust the "scouting" acumen of a bunch of Yankees fans on an internet message board. Maybe a 25 year old 2B who just hit roughly his career numbers last season will break out further - he did bump his walk rate pretty nicely last year - but why, other than wishcasting, should I assume he has another level of performance in him? He's already one of the top few 2B in the game.



As for Melky, isn't the consensus is far closer to "he can be a reasonably valuable contributor at CF on a good team, but not a star" than Joe Sheehan's "ZOMG!!!! 80 extra base hits!!!1"? Who is saying otherwise?

Can't we all just get along?

OMG you guys are obsessed with people slighting Yankees players! Every conversation is a chance to bring up the fact that someone at some point didn't believe in the great Cano or Melky. How dare Red Sox fans think that Cano maxed out when he hit .342 with a .359 Babip and despite a terrible walk rate!

but why, other than wishcasting, should I assume he has another level of performance in him?

Because he's 25, he was very raw when he's come up and it is clear he's still learning how to hit. Whenever he manages to bring a consistent approach at the plate over the course of the season, he will put together a much better season than the ones he has produced to this point, where he spends the first half of the season looking like he's never seen a high fastball (in 06 it was an inside curve/change) before.

I know you disagree with this, and I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but those are my reasons.

OMG you guys are obsessed with people slighting Yankees players! Every conversation is a chance to bring up the fact that someone at some point didn't believe in the great Cano or Melky. How dare Red Sox fans think that Cano maxed out when he hit .342 with a .359 Babip and despite a terrible walk rate!

OMG!!! You are obsessed with commenting on my comments about Yankee and Red Sox players! It's hardly every conversation seeing as how you haven't had a chance to complain about it for a month! Get a grip.

The horse is dead! Dead, dead, dead!

OMG, you edited that last comment after I wrong this one! And now I'm adding this in! Your first comment made it sound like only biased Red Sox fans would think that Cano had maxed out, but your last comment makes it sound like you think there's just a reasonable difference of opinion on Cano. Which is it? OMG OMG OMG!

how many people have put up a 170 OPS+ in the high offense era without hitting .370 or hitting 40+ HRs?

David Ortiz's 2007 comes to mind (171 OPS+, .332 avg, 35 HR in 149 games).

I suspect (and really have no way of knowing) that Willie doesn't really listen to him, unless it's something like, "Willie, so and so has a sore arm..."

Well, if Peterson isn’t giving much input, shouldn’t he be? Shouldn’t he be telling Willie that Schoeneweis is a LOOGY, Feliciano is not and Mota shouldn’t have pitched that many high-lev innings? I just find it difficult that someone who knows his WRXL’s is not being given more say than Willie’s gut.

Peterson also seems to be the type of person that could spreadsheet a 5.5 man rotation. They even have the .5 starter in Jorge Sosa.

David Ortiz's 2007 comes to mind (171 OPS+, .332 avg, 35 HR in 149 games).

Which took 52 doubles and 110 walks to get to. Not that that is necessarily outside of Wright's ability, mind you.

I see Wright's upside as becoming a Giambi type hitter with slightly less power. Giambi posted a ~195 OPS+ between 2000-2001 while hitting about 40 homers a year. Maybe Wright can become a 170-175 OPS hitter by hitting .320-.330 with 30-35 homers and a 110-120 walks. Which I guess is Ortiz's 2007 season. Wright does strike out a lot but has hit for a good average so he's also a guy who could hit for a very high average in a fluke season.

I agree with those fans that think Wright is a guy with very good but not great power.

If Wright posts a 150 OPS+ again this year, they should be pretty happy with that.

If he maxes out at 150, and hangs around 150 for a couple of seasons you won't hear me complaining.

If he drops back to 133-139 (where he was at the prior 2 seasons when people were claiming he'd maxed out) I'll probably be a little disappointed.

In 2005 he hit 139 with poor defense at 3rd (-10?)
In 2007 he hit 150 with average to good defense at 3rd (0 to +5?)

That's a nice level of improvement, not a huge leap, but a nice progression

If he has a year or two of 160 with +10 defense, I'll be very happy.