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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Rosenheck, back with his latest Keeping Score.
Melvin’s gamble on Sabathia demonstrated a keen understanding of what statistical analysts call the “success cycle,” or the oscillation between very good and very bad teams that is the best path to profitability for franchises with limited resources. Because making the playoffs represents such a financial bonanza, the relationship between wins and revenues is disjointed. Improving to 93 wins from 88 can be worth a fortune, but improving to 83 from 78 is mostly insignificant.
As a result, teams can make money either by gunning for a championship, or by reducing payroll, collecting revenue-sharing checks and accumulating high draft picks — but not by spending heavily to achieve a competitive second-place finish. The Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics have wisely made abrupt moves between contending and rebuilding in recent years, while perennial also-rans like the Toronto Blue Jays seem condemned to an 85-win purgatory.
Repoz
Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:07 AM | 2 comment(s)
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1. BeanoCook Posted: October 19, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#2988129)The Brewers certainly made the right call in dealing LaPorta. What is not mentioned was that Milwaukee had two players in-line for the same spot. Gamel and LaPorta. Gamel is not good enough on D to play anywhere other than 1b. He is also a LH, hitter, a need. So the cost was little, as there was no real loss as one of these two players would have been on the bench had they never made the move.
Anyone who owns in a simulated baseball league knows this. The trick (in real life) is doing it without pissing off the fan base.
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