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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

NY Times: Young All-Stars in Alignment (RR)

Last season, when Reyes played in 161 games, he was trailed by questions about his suitability as a leadoff hitter, because his on-base percentage was meager. Even a month ago, Reyes was batting .246 and swinging at terrible pitches.

Only recently has Reyes started dazzling at the plate, getting four hits seemingly every other day and demonstrating improved discipline. His batting average is now .300. And when he does reach base, he is often driven in by Wright.

Reyes understands that his job is to score runs, steal bases and hit triples. Wright crushes homers and anchors a powerful heart of the lineup.
...
For his part, Reyes has taught Wright some Spanish, though not enough to guide him through a breathless phone call from one of Reyes’s cousins, a huge Wright fan. But he’s improving, Reyes said.

Wright likely asked Reyes to teach him the curse words first, judging from the HR derby :P

NTNgod Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:44 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:28 AM (#2095015)
So has there ever been a young right side of an infield that a team has come up with together like this? The Brewers for a nanosecond (1982-83) had Yount and Molitor together, but Yount -- though he was only 26 -- had already been up in the majors for seven seasons, and the two of them together in 1982 were five years older combined that Wright/Reyes are right now.

The early 1950s Braves had a very young Eddie Mathews and a not quite as young Johnny Logan (Logan was 25 when Mathews came up as a 20 year old rookie in 1952), and they stayed together right through until Logan was traded to the Pirates in 1961. Logan had come up a year before Mathews, 1951. Logan made four All-Star teams, 1955 and then 57-59. Mathews, of course, was Eddie Mathews. Not the same age the way Wright and Reyes are, but that might not be a bad comp, overall.

Others, history buffs? Schmidt and Bowa don't really work, before anyone mentions them -- Bowa came up several years before Schmidt. I'm thinking of pairs that came up pretty much simultaneously and then played a long time together, and enjoyed great success (hopefully, as a harbinger of what's to come for these two).
   2. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#2095021)
Okay, you're Omar in the coming offseason.

1. Do you try to extend Wright and/or Reyes right now?
2. How long and how much?

I'll play the role, knowing that I have the moral hazard of neither the money nor the risk being real.

I offer Wright 8 years/105 million.
I offer Reyes 8 years/80 million.

Entice them both with the security and reminding them they still get to FA at 31, which is still prime money-making years. Meanwhile, I pray every night that neither gets a career-altering injury which will end up with my ass on the unemployment line.
   3. AJM Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:43 AM (#2095026)
Do you try to extend Wright and/or Reyes right now?

Will either of them be eligible for arbitration? If not I wait.
   4. NTNgod Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:45 AM (#2095028)
Will either of them be eligible for arbitration?

Reyes is.

Major-league DL time still counts as service time... so 2004 is a full season in that regards.
   5. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:55 AM (#2095034)
I offer Wright 8 years/105 million.
I offer Reyes 8 years/80 million.


Well, now. The Mets have one more pre-arb year for Wright, then three arb years. We really need Walt Davis for this, but I'll just guess that with Wright, you're talking about something along the lines of $500,000 next year (Cabrera is making almost that this season), and then something like $6M, $8M, and $11M in arbitration. So you'd be talking $25.5M -- and I think that's pretty reasonable, if not conservative -- in his arb years, and then $79.5M for the following four years. That would be one hell of a gamble on his future, that's for sure; basically, you're agreeing right now to pay him around $20M a year for his first four post-FA years -- maybe a little less, assuming that there's some inflation in arbitration awards between now and then. But somewhere around $19-20M/year for those four years. Yikes.

I have to say, I'd be surprised if it would take quite that much to buy the next eight years of his future. That's a whole lot of security you're giving him, and as you point out, he'd still be hitting free agency with plenty of time to sign another huge deal if it turns out to be a below-market deal. I would think $15M/year for the post-FA years ought to be enough, although you might have to agree to buy only the first three years; he might decide he wants to see where the market is a bit earlier if he's locked in at $15M instead of nearly $20M.
   6. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#2095035)
I absolutely love these two. I hope they play together for the next 15+ years and who knows, maybe enter Cooperstown together.

There's no question about who is the best player between the two, but because of the hope he brought us when everything seemed lost, Reyes continues to be my favorite. That, of course, doesn't impede me from being madly optimistic about the greatness of the entinty that is Davidnity™ but I disgress. Anyway, I remember when the Mets called up Jose. We had just been embarrassed by the Mariners, and things couldn't be worse. Our general manager was mad. Our manager was a joke. We had a declining and injured superstar at catcher, an injured, overpaid and overweight albatross at first base, a whiny malcontent shadow of a ballplayer at second, an odious stopgap at shortstop, a flawed (though likeable in some ways) thirdbaseman, an injury prone left-fielder to go along with Roger Cedeno, and Timo Perez in the OF. Our pitching staff was a republican buffet of whiners. One an ex-Brave who had an excuse for everything. Another an aspiring politician whose stuff had diminished. Steve Trachsel and his antics, and a former first rounder who was getting hammered. The bullpen had a headcase as a closer, a washed up closer as LOOGY, the worst reliever in Met history and Stormy Weathers. Really, basically the only guys who you could sort of root for before Jose got there were:

1. 10.4: A minor league catcher who was having a fluke season.

2. Wigginton: A hard-nosed player with a knack for first-ball swining whose defense was statuesque

3. Jae Seo: Former top prospect who managment and pitching coach didn't like.

4. I guess Heilman, but I remember hating him back then for some reason.

That's it.

Then he came up, and if for only a short time (before the injury bug hit, of course) we were able to dream again. Three tough years later, that dream has become true.
   7. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:04 AM (#2095039)
Really, basically the only guys who you could sort of root for before Jose got there were:

Well, you could still root for Piazza. You could always root for Mike. I know he was hurt, and they didn't actually play together until two months later, so I get your point. Things were awfully dreary.

Do you remember their first game together, by the way? When Piazza returned against the Giants? If you love symbolism: Piazza homered with Reyes on base in a 9-2 romp. Mike had three hits and five RBI. What a great game; I remember that chatter like it was yesterday -- Treder said something like, "OK, Mike. We get it. You're great. You can stop now." What a treat.
   8. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:14 AM (#2095045)
Do you remember their first game together, by the way? When Piazza returned against the Giants? If you love symbolism: Piazza homered with Reyes on base in a 9-2 romp. Mike had three hits and five RBI. What a great game; I remember that chatter like it was yesterday -- Treder said something like, "OK, Mike. We get it. You're great. You can stop now." What a treat.

Ah, but of course. I remember that week because it was the only week in which Reyes, Piazza and Floyd played together all season.
   9. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:23 AM (#2095055)
There's no question about who is the best player between the two, but because of the hope he brought us when everything seemed lost, Reyes continues to be my favorite.

Reyes is my favorite player so this might be my fanboyism talking right now but, if and this is a big if, Reyes is now a .360/.480 hitter at SS now with GG quality defense and superb baserunning, is Wright clearly the better player?
   10. Benji Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:25 AM (#2095057)
Sam...how about Rick Auerbach and Ron Theobald?
   11. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#2095064)
if and this is a big if, Reyes is now a .360/.480 hitter at SS now with GG quality defense and superb baserunning, is Wright clearly the better player?

Yeah, even with those ifs. Wright is a .400/.590 hitter, and the difference of 150 points of OPS makes up for those other things. And I happen to think that OPS understates the value of home run hitters, because home run hitting is the most efficient form of offense -- there's no "leakage" because every home run produces runs. The fact that more of Wright's slugging is home run-driven extends his advantage over Reyes.

But I'll say this: if Reyes shows he has really reached the level of performance reflected in his current statistics, he has closed the gap far, far faster than I ever imagined he would, and it becomes totally reasonable to ask whether there would come a point where they could be regarded as equivalent players. Of course, Wright's improving as a hitter, too, so there you go.

Wow.
   12. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: July 11, 2006 at 06:32 AM (#2095089)
It's a Golden Age for Met fans and i'm savoring every second. Watching these kids play and develop has been an immense joy.

How good has it been? I can now actively cheer for Scotty K without having blood shoot out of my ears. Now that's levitation, homes.
   13. Harold Posted: July 11, 2006 at 06:49 AM (#2095092)
Well, you could still root for Piazza. You could always root for Mike.

Agreed. As much as I hated the Dodgers and disliked the Mets, I was always a huge fan of Piazza (it bothered me for so long that he played for teams I rooted against). This, off-season, I hoped he'd sign with a team that could make the most of him (and selfishly, a team I like (say, the A's)). I was thrilled that the Padres signed him, even though I wasn't certain it was the best fit for him (his raw numbers would be dragged down without Petco, and he didn't have the DH spot available to him).

He's hitting 290/348/504 . I'm loving it. I hope, to some small extent, you guys are too.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 11, 2006 at 07:17 AM (#2095099)
I'm thinking of pairs that came up pretty much simultaneously and then played a long time together, and enjoyed great success (hopefully, as a harbinger of what's to come for these two).

Ron Cey and Bill Russell fit the bill pretty well. Russell had been up longer but they both became full-timers in 73. That was also Lopes first full-time year and Garvey's was 74. Those guys stayed together through 81.

You could obviously argue that Russell wasn't that successful and I wouldn't argue with you. But the team won 1 WS and 3 other pennants in those 9 seasons.

One thing I never knew: Lopes didn't make the majors until age 27. What the?

One thing I'd forgotten: Cey joined the Cubs in 83 ... I'd have sworn it was 84.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: July 11, 2006 at 07:37 AM (#2095102)
Oh, brain's taking the night off and not up to the arb question (thanks for the compliment Sam) but your analysis looks right at first blush to me. For Wright, given you'd only be buying out 3 arb and 4 FA years with those "8 years", the $105 contract is a little more than Pujols got for the equivalent years and I think it's safe to say Wright won't do that well. Ignoring the cheap 2007, I'd guess something like 7/$80-$85 which is what you came up with basically. I'm still not sure I'd do it.

Reyes seems much harder to price. Somewhat surprisingly, top SS (other than Jeter) haven't done that well in the arb years. And Reyes has those lousy years to factor in. I would guess his first year of arb won't be that expensive. If he repeats this first half over the next 1.5 years, he'll be in line for a big raise. Not comparable obviously but something that unfolds similar to Johan Santana wouldn't surprise me. Santana's first arb award was pretty small (Reyes' award will be bigger than that) because his usage to that point had been half in relief. After the CYA, he got 4/$40 ... which was still a pretty good deal for the Twins.

I suspect the Mets will tie up Reyes and he'll never make it to arb. But 8/$80 is too much. It's not clear he'd do better than 5/$60 if he were an FA right now (Furcal-Tejada territory), putting the arb years at 3/$20. That's possibly what he would get (I think that's high) if he stays healthy and productive but there's no discount to reward the Mets for taking that chance on his health. 8/$64 to 8/$72 maybe?

Were I a GM, I'd avoid contracts longer than 5 years like the plague and make an exception only for someone like Pujols. Wright might be close enough to Pujols for me to make that exception ... Reyes isn't (yet).
   16. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:30 PM (#2095346)
8/80 for Reyes? How giddy can you get? Wouldn't you want him to prove he's at his talent level and that it's not just a fluke that everyone will figure out after a couple times around the league?
   17. Kyle S Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#2095358)
i think the mets should absolutely offer reyes 8/80. did i mention i'm a braves fan? no? oops...
   18. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2095362)
I think the Mets should offer Jose Lima 8/180.
   19. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2095367)
Wouldn't you want him to prove he's at his talent level and that it's not just a fluke that everyone will figure out after a couple times around the league?

Yeah, I'm shocked that everyone's just assuming that Reyes is having a breakthrough season and comparing him to Tejada. He's had a great six weeks, and it's exciting, but he wouldn't be the first young player to have a great six weeks and not do much afterwards.
   20. HowardMegdal Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#2095370)
"He's hitting 290/348/504 . I'm loving it. I hope, to some small extent, you guys are too."

It is bittersweet. I would have liked him to be a part of this championship team. I can't say I'd be that upset if Lo Duca had a season-ending injury and the Mets reacquired Piazza. It will never happen, but...
   21. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2095377)
I think the Mets should offer Jose Lima 8/180.

As long as that's 8 days, $180.00, I can live with that.

Yeah, I'm shocked that everyone's just assuming that Reyes is having a breakthrough season and comparing him to Tejada. He's had a great six weeks, and it's exciting, but he wouldn't be the first young player to have a great six weeks and not do much afterwards.

No, no, no, no, no! Daddy, I want one of those geese that lays the chocolate eggs, and I want it NOW! I don't want to wait to see if it's for real, I want it NOW!!!!!!!!!

Seriously, ideally, the order of these two hitting their arb eligibility would be reversed, and the Mets would have another year to evaluate Reyes. Because Wright seems the more rock-solid bet to invest in, for sure, and yet they are in a position where the clock kind of invites them to decide on Reyes earlier. It doesn't mean they have to, of course, but it could put them in a dicey spot if they go year-to-year with Reyes -- don't sit down and talk long-term with him -- but DO take that course with Wright.
   22. Cris E Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2095383)
Trammell and Whitaker were pretty good when they came up, but that was at 2b-SS. But if you consider Aurelio Rodriguez a young 30 then those 78 Tigers were right up there...
   23. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2095384)
LoDuca's clutchness and ability to defend his Cuban pitchers from the tentacles of the evil empire is so much more valuable than Piazza's bat.

Btw, anyone here remember how Josh Byrnes refused to overpay for LoDuca and "settled" for Estrada instead? Good times, good times...
   24. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#2095392)
LoDuca's clutchness and ability to defend his Cuban pitchers from the tentacles of the evil empire is so much more valuable than Piazza's bat.

LoDuca gives good HR Derby BP. We have finally found his highest, best use.
   25. billyshears Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2095404)
It is bittersweet. I would have liked him to be a part of this championship team.

Whoa - what did I miss? isn't it still July?
   26. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:30 PM (#2095428)
Whoa - what did I miss? isn't it still July?

Hey, by this time 20 years ago, Whitey Herzog had conceded the NL East.

But if you consider Aurelio Rodriguez a young 30 then those 78 Tigers were right up there...

No, but thanks for playing.

When Arky Vaughn came up in 1932 as a 20 year old future HOF SS, the Pirates had a HOFer at 3B, too, but Pie Traynor (age 32) was at the tail end, not the beginning, of his career. 1933 was Traynor's last full season.
   27. Rob Base Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2095466)
Btw, anyone here remember how Josh Byrnes refused to overpay for LoDuca and "settled" for Estrada instead? Good times, good times...

If you consider last place and a sub-.500 record to be good times, then yes. Good times, good times ...
   28. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 11, 2006 at 05:15 PM (#2095478)
Sam:

I came across your question and I think I have two that somewhat qualify. 1940 Indians with Lou Boudreau and Ken Keltner. Lou was 22(?) and Ken was maybe a year older.

And in 1968 I know Sal Bando started full time next to Campaneris. But Campy was 25 or 26.

I will now adjourn and sift through BBR for other examples..........
   29. HowardMegdal Posted: July 11, 2006 at 07:56 PM (#2095651)
"I would have liked him to be a part of this championship team."

I am not saying it is over. But certainly, it looks good, and just as clearly, Piazza behind the plate would only improve that outlook. As they move closer to that goal, it becomes more bittersweet that Piazza isn't a part of it.
   30. Sam M. Posted: July 11, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2095672)
I came across your question and I think I have two that somewhat qualify. 1940 Indians with Lou Boudreau and Ken Keltner. Lou was 22(?) and Ken was maybe a year older.

That's a great example, HW. Keltner had come up in 1938, at the age of 21, followed in 1939 by Boudreau (21) for part of the year and then in 1940 full-time. A very close parallel, indeed. They then stayed together right through the '40s, a fine pair, indeed. One HOFer, and another seven-time All-Star.

So now we have two reasonable historical examples: Mathews/Logan, and Boudreau/Keltner. One where the 3B ended up as the HOF player, the other the SS. So this sort of thing CAN work out with a happy ending, can't it? ;-)

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