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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, January 28, 2010
2B in the wry…(sobs)
One more idea, probably hypothetical: Fernando Tatis would be a far better option than Luis Castillo at 2B. As previously mentioned, Tatis in 2008-2009 has an OPS+ of 113. Castillo, over that same period, has an OPS+ of 90. So Luis Castillo would need to be a much better defender than Tatis at 2B to make up that massive gap offensively.
Thing is, Castillo would likely be massively worse than Tatis defensively. He was the worst everyday defensive second baseman in baseball last year and is a year older in 2010. While Tatis’ 2B defensive sample is way too small to draw any conclusions from it, his mobility and defensive range lead me to believe he is unlikely to be even as terrible as Castillo in the field, let alone worse enough to make up for the 23 points of OPS+ between them.
But Tatis doesn’t need to supplant Castillo as the 2B starter- something the Mets are unlikely to to anyway- to be valuable as a bench player. He’s a strong addition, and frankly, if the Mets aren’t willing to acknowledge that Luis Castillo is a sunk cost and just go sign Orlando Hudson, he’s a nice insurance policy at 2B, and many other positions as well.
Repoz
Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:39 PM | 75 comment(s)
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1. Benji Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3448825)False.
Castillo had an OBP heavy 98 OPS+ last year.
Look, I think he sucks too, but come on! Tatis is not an everyday 2B at 35. He wasn't an everyday 2B at 25. Who the #### are they going to put there, Alex Cora? They aren't going to cut Castillo to sign a new FA and sink over $10 million into the position.
This fantasy is so outlandish that you might as well suggest trading Jay Payton and Grant Roberts for Chase Utley.
Ah. Well then.
Look, there isn't enough data to support definitively what Tatis will be defensively at 2B. But the data says Castillo was worst everyday 2B in baseball defensively last year, and he's now a year older. I like Tatis's chances of being league average defensively at the position, which I think is massively better than Castillo will be. Since some of this is my own opinion (unfortunately, no data exists to prove it one way or the other), I expect some will disagree.
The Castillo money is a SUNK COST. It's gone. So call it $10 million all you want- they've already spent $6 million, and DO NOT HAVE AN ADEQUATE SECOND BASEMAN. And for around $3-4 million, you can add Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez.
The point isn't that Tatis is a good choice to play 2B reguarly. The point is he's a safety net far better than Cora, or THE GUY CURRENTLY SLATED TO START THERE.
You are describing a 35-year old player with a grand total of 53 career innings under his belt at the position. League average is unadulterated wishcasting.
He had a .302/.387/.346 and was 20 for 26 on the basepaths. Offhand, I assume that's league average-ish at second. Is it an attitude thing? That dropped pop-up against the Yankees? Just a little slow here--there are so few threads about the Mets I have a tough time following the CW.
Why in the world would you think that Tatis, a guy who hasn't played the infield regularly since 2003 and even when he did play infield, didn't play second base, has a good chance at being league average defensively, at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond, second base? I mean, is there any example in Major League history of a career 3rd baseman and OFer moving to second at an age where most players who have experience at the position are moving off of it? Is there any reason to believe Fernando Tatis, who has never been seen as athletic enough to play up the middle regularly, in the OF or the IF, when he was much younger, can now transfer to an up-the-middle position that he's played 11 games total professionally at 35?
Since some of this is my own opinion (unfortunately, no data exists to prove it one way or the other), I expect some will disagree.
History, practice and common sense are against you, I think you need to present a little bit more than "this is my opinion" and expect people to take your suggestion seriously.
Nor is there enough data to support definitively what Ron Hunt will be defensively at 2B.
You are insane. Tatis was not an average 3B when he was in his prime!
The White Sox did this with Ron Santo at the end of his career (ugh!). The Giants did it with Bill Madlock for a couple of seasons at 26-27 (OKish I guess).
I would expect Tatis to go the Santo route. I'd be kinda surprised if he lasted a week as a full-time 2B. As your emergency 14th inning injury replacement sure. But hey, apparently he got 5 starts there last year so maybe the Mets will provide this entertainment for us.
Thanks Walt! I'm off to BBref to check out Madlock.
Edit: I guess I've heard Madlock's name before, but I don't think I ever saw his numbers before. Madlock had an awesome career. 4 time batting champ! The above mentioned switch to second for a season and a half. Very cool.
Of course. That is exactly what they would do.
Well put. There's simply no way. The Mets would be better served trying Murphy there.
Oddly, yes. Ron Santo. Didn't exactly work (and he had won five Gold Gloves at 3B.) EDIT: As stated in #12...
Orlando Hudson: 4.15
2B Median: ~3.5
Felipe Lopez: 3.32
Luis Castillo: 3.07
Fernando Tatis: 2.54 (Similar to Jose Lopez, Delwyn Young, Willy Aybar among 2Bmen).
Fernando Tatis is not a second baseman.
Tatis was below average at 3B with the Expos a decade ago. There's no way he's even close defensively to the next-worst starting second baseman in baseball if the Mets are crazy enough to put him there more than a handful of times a season.
To be honest, he doesn't drop that pop-up, it erases about 75% of that, easy. Maybe more.
Because even that bright spot was only about 20 Watts.
Not fair at all, and you know it. Come on.
What do those numbers in #19 represent, zack?
Because this team is devoid of leadership and personality and we fans believe falsely that Castillo's sunk cost (and remedial economics education for the Wilpons) is all that stands in the way of the Mets acquiring Hudson to play 2B and inject some life into this collection of stiffs.
Absent overwhelming public/media pressure, the Wilpons won't fire Minaya because he's in the first year of a foolish three-year extension and if the Wilpons are unwilling to spend money for ballplayers, why would they spend money on two GMs? And if they are publicly pressured into firing Minaya, the job would go to Ricco because they won't have to pay him much and they know he can be controlled. The situation is quite hopeless. I suggest taking up golf.
Murphy, vs. RHP: .282/.340/.436 (.775)
Tatis, vs. LHP: .272/.351/.457 (.808)
That's not great out of first base, but for whatever the Mets are paying, it wouldn't be horrible.
Only internal candidates, likely, to be Jeff Wilpon's sock puppet a/k/a Mets GM, including recently hired Wayne Krivsky, special assistant to Minaya and ex Reds (?) GM
[/Francesca]
The same Hudson who was whining down the stretch about losing time to Uncle Ronny? Not sure he's the leader you are looking for.
One of my faves from Bill James -- commenting on Madlock's displeasure at being shifted to second.
"This is understandable; bears don't like to roller skate, cows don't like to dance and the Pope rarely appears on game shows. Playing second base was not among Madlock's considerable talents."
In the same general time frame James proposes a quick and dirty rule for evaluating how good a player was defensively at his primary position. Good defensive players tend to play at least a little at more demanding positions, bad ones tend to spend time at less demanding positions. And then adds, ignore this when talking about the Giants.
I think my favorite defensive player might have been Shawon Dunston. Not great or terrible, just that arm. You could see the first-baseman cringe when it was obvious Dunston would have to really let one go.
Somebody here once ran a DM sim with Bonds at all positions. I think Bonds the catcher gave up a couple hundred passed balls ... still made up for it with the 1300 OPS.
the Pope rarely appears on game shows.
he sends Fr. Guido Sarducci
Again, ridiculous. If you're expecting some kind of Dunnsian or Knoblauchian show complete with keystone cops music, it isn't going to happen no matter how much howling is going on about putting a 34-year-old third baseman at second.
And Lassus, I understand you feel everyone is just bashing the Mets for sport, but come on, even you had to enjoy the "Todd Hundley, LF" show a little bit. Tatis could be all that...and more!
That tears it! They've broken even you, Tim? Next thing you know, Greg Prince and I will become Yankee fans. When will this madness end????
Castillo is such a nonfactor, it's not even funny. Going into last year, the knock on him wasn't that he was not gonna be good enough, it's that he was gonna be injured (well, and that he was paid too much). I can totally see Castillo done by May because he tears his hammy or something to that effect.
Seriously, you're a good guy Howard, but this obsession with one year defensive ratings has to stop! Castillo, as many have noted, is not even close to being one of the major problems on this team.
My mind's been boggled.
Not to pile on but ... wow.
Wow.
Pursuing Hudson or Lopez would be a reasonable move here, but there may be more pressing matters to attend to.
I don't understand. Who was the Mets leader that propelled them to post-season success in 2006, 2007, and 2008? Those teams were just a great group of guys. The '86 Mets had nothing on them. [/sarcasm]
[32]
Shhh! You'll ruin the surprise.
Not to mention the fun of watching his legs detatch at the knees from squatting and taking all manner of drugs!
But geez. Tatis as a second baseman? That's just not viable.
Never mind 2B, the idea of applauding the Mets, a team with little depth, for resigning an above average hitter who can play a lot of positions without making a complete fool out of himself is like cheering a nineteen year old for taking out the garbage. It was an obvious move that could only be lauded when done by a team with a bullet-ridden rotation that forgot to pick up a starter this offseason.
Replacing Castillo makes sense, but it was about sixth on the major to-do list this offseason. If the Mets still have $4m in the kitty Hudson would probably be the best pickup they could make at this point, but that's only because the FO has fukked up just about everything else.
As for criticizing Howard because the FO would never consider Castillo a sunk cost, that's short-sighted. If the standard for discussing and endorsing a sensible move is whether the Wilpons would endorse it also these threads will be about three posts long.
Isn't Luis Castillo basically the Jon Garland of second basemen now.
Tatis at second is crazy.
Castillo is significantly below average and declining, but you could do worse.
I agree and I was critical of Castillo during the early part of last summer. He maintained his offensive performance, which made him around average though.
In a way, but the thing about Castillo is, which I think has been Howard's main point, is that a dropoff is pretty likely. A Castillo who bats .280 instead of .300 is not really that close to being average. I think it's reasonable to think that the Mets will be below average at second base next year(although I don't think significantly, because I think that Castillo's poor defense is more in the range of "meh" than "AAAAH!" bad).
That being said, I don't see any of the second base options out there as being really worth the effort, since we aren't looking at any spring chickens there either. There is no one that you could say would be a substantial upgrade; I'm imagining a reasonable projection for something like Hudson over Castillo would be going from slightly below-average to average at second base. I don't know if that's worth paying more than a few million for. Even the number that BlackCloud cites in his post of ~4 million might be more than I'm willing to spend on position, since I don't really view Castillo as a "sunk cost." A true sunk cost, I think, is someone who you can reasonably project to be below replacement level, a player like Carlos Silva.
...or Gary Matthews Jr.
Every guaranteed contract is a sunk cost. Mariano Rivera's contract is a sunk cost this season.
The only question is can you upgrade, and what would the upgrade cost, per win, incrementally.
If the Mets had Johan Santana as their 5th SP, and prime Pedro Martinez became available for $400k, you should make the upgrade, regardless of what Santana makes. You figure out what to do with Johan later, but you take the extra 2-3 wins for basically free.
False.
I understand this concept, although I admit my terminology is very off.
Basically, what I'm saying is that I don't think it's unreasonable for a team to have some sort of a budget for a position (although, this doesn't seem to apply to the Mets, since they don't apparently have a budget of ANY kind).
I suppose that could be true. But I'm not so convinced that I'd feel that not signing Hudson is some grand failing by the Mets front office. The pitching staff debacle, now that's a grand failing!
I certainly wouldn't complain about the Mets signing Hudson and kicking Castillo however. Much in the way that I didn't complain about the Mets signing Bay, although I'm still not really convinced that was the best way for their offseason to unfold. Definitely less so now.
If they could have replicated the Red Sox offseason, it probably would have helped them a lot more, but there's no indication that was possible.
Crawls?
Look, let's take the league average 2B out of it if you want- I've been impressed with Tatis defensively, he handles 3B quite well, 2B adequately, and think he'd be right around average at the position. His defense a decade ago, when Tatis didn't do a lot of things that would make him a good fielder, is a lot less relevant to me. How Ron Santo handled it is pretty irrelevant too.
But we do have a pretty good idea of just how bad Tatis would have to be defensively to be a worse option than Castillo at 2B-and it's shockingly bad. Let's just take a direct comparison, as I did in the piece (mentioned the sensible 1B platoon, too)- Castillo has an OPS+ the last two years of 90. Tatis is at 113. So for Castillo to make that up, Tatis would need to be monumentally worse than Castillo defensively in 2010.
But Castillo, in 2009, was already WAY below average for a defensive 2B. He was the worst everyday 2B, defensively, in baseball. And again, his being a year older is going to work against him- I believe, more than the average player. I think the chances Castillo comes into camp in 2010 in the same shape as 2009, when he had something to prove, are minimal.
To be clear (and I mentioned this in 5 as well), Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez are good choices for 2B. Tatis isn't, precisely becauser my hunch should not be enough to make a decision to allow a 35 year old to play every day at a new position. That there's a reasonable argument to be made that Tatis is a better choice at the position than Castillo isn't an endorsement of Tatis to play every day at 2B. It is an indictment of Castillo.
And the Mets can't just shake a glove tree to replace him, because they have so many other holes in the lineup. If they're going to upgrade on D, they need to make sure they get a player that's at least as good on offense (Lopez or Hudson). Castillo in a vacuum isn't a bad player, but on the 2010 Mets, he's an odd fit.
Tatis to 2B is a new form of Crazy, Howard. IMO and in all possible universes.
The guy had NO LEGS for crying out loud!!
Somebody had to say it ...
Man, this post makes me feel old.
Interestingly enough, he also projects to be about as good a corner OF as David Murphy of the Rangers. (How am I supposed to keep those two names straight?)
By the way, Chone projects Tatis to be a less valuable hitter than Castillo. I agree, doesn't make sense to me either.
Oh yeah, the Brewers turned Don Money into a bit of a 2B in 77-78 (ages 30-31).
Chone projects Murphy at .274/.328/.429
Castillo at .281/.367/.350
and Tatis at .262/.333/.431
Assuming league averages of .263/.336/.418 (Citifield 2009)
that gives the following OPS+:
Murphy: 100
Castillo: 93
Tatis: 102
using RC on Chone's #s, that gives 4.91 r/g for Tatis, 4.89 for Murphy and 4.49 for Castillo
so no, I don't see how Chone projects Castillo to be a better 1B (or LF) than Tatis or Murphy
It doesn't normally bother me when this happens on the 'net - but when a poster whose name I recognize and I understand knows more about baseball today than I do says something like this it does make me feel old.
Oh and Madlock should have been called out in that slide into second in '87.
It should also be noted here that OPS+ is going to underrate Castillo relative to his actual value, because of his high OBP/ low SLG.
My offensive projection is lower for Castillo, -5 compared to -2 for Tatis. Using LW will give you different results than OPS+, since Castillo is OBP heavy. I am only projecting Castillo as a 2B, not a 1B, and you absolutely cannot use the standard position adjustment to say how well he'd play 1B. It is useful as a measure of value, a 1B who is 12-15 runs above average should be paid about what an average hitting 2B is paid. But there is no way you have enough information to say how good that 2B would be at 1B.
Say Adam Everett is a +20 defender at short. Does that mean he'd be a +40 defender at first? No way! First of all, there aren't enough chances hit to first base for anyone to save that many runs. You've got to consider fielding opportunities, and also specific player skills, as Chris mentioned.
It is quite possible (and in this case I'd say probable) that Luis Castillo is a better overall player than Murphy/Tatis if all players were asked to play 2B, but the worst player of the 3 if asked to play 1B.
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