When ESPN Baseball Tonight analyst John Kruk said Derek Jeter can hit .400 earlier this month, everyone blew it off as crazy. Thirty-four games into the season The Captain is hitting a robust .420 and leading the Major Leagues with 34 hits. Since July 9th, 2011- the day that Jeter went 5 for 5 * and collected his 3,000th hit- he has 124 hits in 81 games, good for a .357 batting average.
Can Jeter hit .400? A lot has to happen and 18 games is simply not enough time to make a declaration. A .400 batting average is probably less attainable than Dimaggio’s 56-game hitting streak. With small ballparks giving fielders less ground to cover, specialized bullpens that are difficult to hit and the absence of amphetamines, the task has become even harder than it was when Barry Bonds was at his enhanced best.
...That brings me to Jeter. If there is someone that could do it today, it might be him. Putting the ball in play is the first key to reaching the elusive magic number. Jeter has a career .355 average on BABIP. For the non-statistically inclined, that means he collects a hit nearly 36% of the time when he makes contact. That is important since, unlike someone like Gwynn, Jeter is prone to the strikeout. He needs to cash in when he does make contact.
...The one big intangible is the pressure that would result if he was flirting with the record deep into the summer. The media focus on any ballplayer would be immense – ESPN lives for this kind of story- but the fact that he is Derek Jeter, plays in New York, is a future Hall of Famer and plays for the Yankees makes this the perfect media storm. Look at how everyone tracked his 3,000th hit. Jeter admitted the pressure of reaching the magic hit total wore on him. Could you imagine the hysteria if he was making a serious run at .400? It might make 3,000 hits look like a day at the beach.
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1. Jim Furtado.357 is a LONG way from .400. If the best you can do is cherry-pick a time period that's only a half-season long and .043 short of the goal, the answer to the question is fairly easy. Jeter's not hitting .400 this year. Still, a 38-year-old shortstop contending for a batting title would be a damn remarkable achievement, so no slight to Jeter intended here.
Wait, in Major League Baseball? No.
Can Jeter hit .190?
And if he does, would he still be the all-star shortstop? (rhetorical question)
This makes zero sense; how does a good offensive start to this season have any impact on one's views of Jeter's fielding, the central issue in those debates?
It's not nice to poke fun at the mentally challenged.
In 2004, with his batting average of .372, Ichiro Suzuki was 20 hits from .400 (ie, if we turn 20 of his outs into hits, he'd have a batting average of .400).
However...despite a batting average of .362, Barry Bonds was even closer: Only 15 hits from .400. And in 2002, the year he hit .370, he was even closer: Just 12 hits from .400.
Odd how he doesn't get mentioned here.
Let's make it really funny:
Derek Jeter is hitting .400 even on the year, through 85 at bats (he was at .420 when the article was written, it appears). That's really good. But let's suppose he were actually hitting ...oh, how about .988 (84 hits in 85 at bats).
He would still need to hit .303 for the rest of the season to finish with a .400 average.
"No" was a good answer a month ago.
Now? Could be very, very close....
After today's disaster--time for David Phelps and Freddy Garcia to switch roles--Jeter has 88 ABs and 34 hits. So he'd need to go 165-for-575 (or .286) the rest of the way to hit .300 for the season. Jeter only has one full season where he's hit less than that. Of course, it was 2010. So I'd say it's maybe 50-50, which as this question pointed out, is a lot higher than it was a month ago.
And if he did, would he give it a gift basket?
Holy crap, did I just pull a Rip Van Winkle and sleep through two weeks of the season? We're at 34 games already? And I would be surprised if anyone ever hit .400 over a full season by averaging one hit per game.
3 for 5 tonight. Could be another Jeter-prime type season. He might cash some of those option year bonuses after all.
It would, but it would be a remarkable achievement for Jeter nonetheless.
Jeter is 40 for his last 100. Before this year, if you look at 100-AB moving averages of hits within a single season, I count 8,236 periods of 100-AB within a single season.
I figure Jeter has hit .400 or better in 321 of 8,236 100-AB periods. (3.9%)
I figure Jeter has hit .300 or better in 5,145 of 8,236 100-AB periods. (62.5%)
Maybe Lazzeri wants to pop back in for a little double-or-nothing action?
There is a better chance that Harper will hit 800 homers than Jeter will hit .350, let alone .400. DOn't get me wrong, its nice to see him having a resurgent season, but this talk of .400 and 4000 hits is utter foolishness.
Problem is, at this point the Yanks need about .800 out of him. (/sends for flowers for various hospital visits)
I dunno, I think it's fun. And I can't stand that soulless, bland ####. He's like the earlier, more annoying, less interesting edition from the AI that produced Rivera and I'd still be thrilled for him to hit those marks.
That's crazy. Jeter needs to hit ~.340 for the rest of the season to hit .350. That's unlikely, but certainly doable.
Anyway, for whatever it's worth, Jeter's updated ZiPS has him hitting .286 over the rest of the season and finishing at .308 on the year. I'd take that.
It's certainly far more likely than Harper shattering the ABs record and the HR record.
Zips has Jeter finishing at .308/.363/.430. That's a pretty good season (and that's assuming he hits .286 the rest of the way) and guarantees he is playing baseball next year and probably the year after. That makes 3500 hits very attainable and 4000 is probably a remote possibility instead of the impossibility last year. Very cool.
I don't know, but I think its nigh impossible for a 38-year old SS to post a career high BA in a declining offensive environment. Nobody with a reasonable minimum amount of career PAs has ever done that have they? I don't think Harper will hit 800 bombs either. Both outcomes are probably too statisically remote to differentiate.
Ichiro could do it if he wanted to!
25 guys have hit .350 or better at 35 or older and qualified for the batting title. B-Ref PI
Lots of old timers (Cobb, Speaker, Lajoie, Collins, Ruth, Wheat) but Tony Gwynn hit .372 at 37, Barry Bonds hit .362 at 39, Chipper Jones hit .364 at 36, Ichiro hit .351 at 35.
It's highly unlikely, but certainly within the realm of possibility. 800 HRs seems far more daunting.
That's what you're most wrong about! I will never surrender my petty, irrational dislike of Derek Jeter. NEVER!
It's probably because I'm a hardcore pessimist, but I see the horror of Jeter batting .350 as all too real (though highly unlikely).
Rod Carew finished the 1983 season with a .339 batting average.
My sentiments exactly.
But how many of those players were considered "stick a fork in him, he's done" before that, the way that Jeter was viewed by nearly everyone only a year ago?
Well, if you qualify the thing enough, of course no one will have done it.
Yeah, but I think 38 today is a lot "younger" than it was in 1925.
Cal Ripken, Jr. had a fluke .340 batting average at age 38. He'd been below .280 the four previous seasons, and his previous career high had been .323, 8 years earlier. Of course, Cal had already moved to 3B by then, and was hurt and only got 354 PAs that year, so he's not a perfect comp by any means.
#41 gives some good examples that come really close to hitting your criteria. Bonds turned 38 during the 2002 season when he had his career high in average (and 40 and 39 in his next two highest seasons). Chipper's career high was at 36. Gwynn's .372 at 37 was his highest in a non strike shortened season.
But not all by obvious flubber players.
How much does that directly affect Jeter? Wouldn't it depend on the source of the decline?
If the decline is due to a loss of power hitters or more Ks, and Jeter is just making strong contact without going for the seats, is it really going to affect him?
It seems like the bulk of the decline in the AL over the past four seasons has been in batting average and BABIP.
2009: .267 AVG/.300 BABIP
2010: .260 AVG/.295 BABIP
2011: .258 AVG/.294 BABIP
2012: .251 AVG/.285 BABIP
Walk rate has dropped some and K rate has increased some as well though.
2009: 8.8% BB/PA, 17.5% K/BF
2010: 8.5% BB/PA, 17.5% K/BF
2011: 8.1% BB/PA, 18.0% K/BF
2012: 8.1% BB/PA, 18.6% K/BF
So Jeter does deserve some credit for defying the declining offensive environment I think.
I found two:
Orator Jim O'Rourke was 39 when he hit his career high of .360, in 1890. This was in the Players League, however, and was likely more an effect of a weaker league than an improving player.
Cy Williams hit his career high of .345 in 1926, at age 38. 384 PAs.
I think about half of that is Mark Teixeira. Seriously, though, I wonder how much of it is due to increased use of infield shifts. Where can I find league GB/FB BABIP splits?
Where else?
Baseball Reference: 2009 AL Batting Splits by Hit Trajectory
Baseball Reference: 2010 AL Batting Splits by Hit Trajectory
Baseball Reference: 2011 AL Batting Splits by Hit Trajectory
Baseball Reference: 2012 AL Batting Splits by Hit Trajectory
While Rivera's injury reinforces the limits of projecting years ahead, Jeter now seems more likely to play through his current contract, including the option year (2014). If so, he'd almost certainly pass Molitor for the most hits by a right-handed American Leage hitter; Wagner for most hits while playing predominantly at SS; and Tris Speaker for 2nd most hits in AL. Those are pretty significant achievements, and as noted above, there is some chance that Jeter could go a bit beyond that.
Rk Player BA BAbip OPS+ PA Year Tm Lg G1 Derek Jeter .404 .440 173 119 2012 NYY AL 25
2 Honus Wagner .324 .339 144 634 1912 PIT NL 145
3 Dickey Pearce .294 .295 107 261 1874 BRA NA 56
4 Ozzie Smith .288 .293 89 603 1993 STL NL 141
5 Craig Counsell .285 .317 104 459 2009 MIL NL 130
6 Maury Wills .281 .296 91 654 1971 LAD NL 149
7 Rabbit Maranville .281 .291 74 628 1930 BSN NL 142
8 George Shoch .278 .293 95 350 1897 BRO NL 85
9 Dave Bancroft .277 .283 66 403 1929 BRO NL 104
10 Omar Vizquel .271 .297 82 651 2005 SFG NL 152
David Wright: .402
He wont' do it for a full season either. Nor will he hit 86 HRs.
Wright sure did own Ricky Nolasco yesterday. That may be a case where batter vs. pitcher numbers are predictive, it looked like Nolasco had no chance in that matchup. I'm glad he's bouncing back. It is never fun when a guy who looks like a future HOFer appears to start losing it early.
Can Derek Jeter hit .348 in May?
Doubtful.
The Mets usually do well against Nolasco IIRC.
Jeter hitting .291 this month as of now, and .338 for the season.
that does help his cause of hitting .300, actually, since he had a good head start and ceded little so far this month.
.400? not so much
I was too kind in Post 17?
I'm cruel sometimes.
But as Flush Flaherty put it the other night...."Jeter's just in a bit of a hitting funk"
Uhh...free falling from .404 to .314 in just 30 games is the freakin' Maggot Brain of all hitting funks.
LHP RHP %LHP Apr 32 73 30 May 27 97 22 Jun 8 21 28 67 191 262012 Splits:
Josh Hamilton has fallen from .404 to .338 in just 20 games. Hitting is hard.
He can, but they haven't let him start since May 16th, so I'm assuming they don't trust him much. He only has 20 games, and 14 starts at SS in the Majors.
Whatever his issues, I think it still makes sense to start him enough to give Jeter a breather every now and then. Obviously the binder disagrees with me.
Yeah, I agree with you, especially since he's been playing vs. LHP anyway. Except Andruw has been DHing with Nix in LF. Seems like a good chance to stick Andruw in LF, Nix at SS, and give Jeter half days off. I wonder if Jeter told Girardi he didn't like doing it?
Could be. When those two are involved, it's hard to know who is responsible for a shitty idea. Whoever came up with the idea, I still can't understand why Jeter or Girardi would want to go away from giving Jeter a break once a week when that worked so well in the first month or so of the season.
because jeter is the kind of star who gets to tell the manager how and when he's gonna play (see craig biggio in 06 and 07. biggio is worshipped as a The Guy Who Did It The Right Way, but his refusal to bat lower in the lineup as well as him insisting on playing road games is one of the 2 main reasons the astros lost in 06)
I said very early in this thread, when many were rhapsodizing about Jeter hitting .400 or anyway having this great year, that Jeter wouldn't hit .300. If he and the Yankees don't come to grip with this problem, he might not hit .275--and that's with little or no power and reduced OBP, too.
BB-REF PI: Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, (requiring H>=3000), sorted by greatest Strikeouts
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