NYBD: Silva: Could ZiPS Projections on Straw and Munson Mean HOF?

As with Strawberry you could go to BBTF for the yearly records. Munson’s candidacy is a trickier proposition. First, you have to take into account the fact he was a catcher. ZiPS used the assumption Munson moves away from the dish and plays 1b/DH for the final eight years of his career which, by the way, none stand out as elite performances. To be fair, he is in the ballpark with other catchers of his era, like Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk, but those individuals caught their entire careers and ZiPS is not making the same assumption. Also, using the Silva consistency test, I find stretches of Munson playing at an elite level, but nothing that seems to compare to Gary Carter, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, or future Hall of Famer Mike Piazza. You have to assume his post 1980 projections would have been worse if Munson had to deal with additional wear and tear of catching.

Marty Appel, author of the book “Munson”, appeared on my show and said that, in his opinion, Thurman Munson was not a Hall of Famer. I didn’t see Thurman play, so I can only go by the numbers and compare him to others of his era. Those that saw him play say no and my humble analysis indicates the same. Unfortunately a no go for Thurman Munson.

Thanks to The Final Season of Monk Dubiel.