I had an opportunity to chat with Steven Travers last night, author of a new book called “The Last Icon: Tom Seaver and His Times,” on my radio program. Never before has someone delved into the career of the man known as “The Franchise.”
...Sutton was 32-years old, the same age as Seaver, and was entering the late prime of his career. He still had plenty left as from 1977-80 he went 54-39 with a 3.21 ERA. In comparison, Seaver went 63-34 with a 3.00 ERA. The Mets never could have received comparable value for Seaver; Baseball-Reference ranks only two pitchers (Roger Clemens and Walter Johnson) with more value in the history of the game; but Sutton was as fair a deal as they could have made.
Imagine the course of both teams history if Seaver wound up signing with Los Angeles. He could have taken over as the ace of the franchise for Koufax, who retired the year before Seaver’s debut. He might also have won far more than the 311 games which he finished.
During the 70s, he often had terrible offenses supporting him. Travers believes Seaver could have won 30 games during his 1971 season; a year that many believe was his best ever. Seaver finished 20-10 with a 1.76 ERA and set, the then, strikeout record for a RHP with 289. Ironically, Ferguson Jenkins won the Cy Young Award due to his 24 wins, despite posting an ERA a run higher. ”Seaver could have won 30,” Travers said. He had 36 starts and I believe 31 to 35 of them are absolute possible victories. If he gives up 3 runs, forget about it, much less two. He has to win 1-0, 2-1 to win games. He could have been 31-3 in 1971, that’s how good he was.”
(grumble~grumble) Hey, pitch to the damn score and you won’t feel so franchiseled! (grumble~grumble over)
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1. Chris Fluit Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:10 PM (#4043658)Not that Seaver wasn't great or that he wouldn't have benefited from more run support, but I bet that something like the above is true of nearly any 20+ game winner.
Going thru his game logs, these seem to be the most likely games that he "should" have won:
8/11 - 10 IP, 0 R
5/17 - 9.2 IP, 3 R
4/11 - 9 IP, 0 R
9/16 - 9 IP, 1 R
7/17 - 8.1 IP, 2 R
7/27 - 8 IP, 2 R
I looked four outings where he had 9 IP and 3 R (or less), 8 IP and 2 R and 7 IP and 1 R and did not come away with a win. He could have won other games but sometimes you pitch well and lose. I don't see a case for more than 26 wins for him in '71. Seaver gave up 3 R or less in 32 of his 35 starts and that's pretty remarkable.
Ironically, 1971 just may have been the best offense Seaver had supporting him, up to that point in his career (at least, relative to the rest of the National League). Consider the following, beginning with Seaver's rookie season of 1967:
METS Season........OPS+..........RUNS SCORED..........RUNS SCORED RANK (NL)
1967................77.................498..................10 of 10
1968................79.................473...................9 of 10
1969................84.................632...................9 of 12
1970................89.................695...................9 of 12
1971................92.................588...................8 of 12
DB
Year W L W-L% Finish Playoffs R RA1976 92 70 .568 2nd of 6 608 543
1975 88 74 .543 2nd of 6 648 534
1974 102 60 .630 1st of 6 Lost WS (4-1) 798 561
1973 95 66 .590 2nd of 6 675 565
1972 85 70 .548 2nd of 6 584 527
1971 89 73 .549 2nd of 6 663 587
1970 87 74 .540 2nd of 6 749 684
1969 85 77 .525 4th of 6 645 561
1968 76 86 .469 7th of 10 470 509
1967 73 89 .451 8th of 10 519 595
Sutton 67-76
Year IP GS WAR1967 232.2 34 1.7
1968 207.2 27 4.1
1969 293.1 41 2.5
1970 260.1 38 1.2
1971 265.1 37 5.0
1972 272.2 33 6.4
1973 256.1 33 5.7
1974 276.0 40 2.5
1975 254.1 35 3.5
1976 267.2 34 3.1
Seaver 67-76
Year IP GS WAR1967 251.0 34 6.4
1968 278.0 35 7.5
1969 273.1 35 7.6
1970 290.2 36 6.0
1971 286.1 35 9.2
1972 262.0 35 5.8
1973 290.0 36 9.5
1974 236.0 32 5.7
1975 280.1 36 7.7
1976 271.0 34 5.7
I think a case could definitely be made that having Seaver over Sutton in 71 and 73 would have been enough to push them over the top and into first place. Less so in 69, but a case could be made. In the other years the gap between the Dodgers and Reds is so great, I don't think it helps much.
As for Seaver's win totals, I could see it being worth 20 more wins over the course of his career. But the Mets usually had really good defense behind Seaver. Would the Dodgers have had as good a defense ? Probably.....Seaver and Sutton had the same BABIP during that time frame.
REPORT LINK
Is this referring to WAR? Cy Young is pretty far ahead of Clemens and Johnson, with Seaver in fourth. Seaver is third in WPA and Base-Out Wins Saved, but behind Clemens and Maddux since Johnson and Young pre-date the information available.
Pfft. Next you'll be telling me that Babe Ruth didn't really hit 104 home runs.
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