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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

NYT: Forman: Analysis: Phillies Have the Edge on Defense

Or as Sir Forman FB’ed…“Yankees fans are going to kill me for this article, but the numbers are the numbers.”

To explain the chart, Ryan Howard allowed 1.4 fewer runs than the average first baseman because of his defense, while Mark Teixeira allowed 2.4 runs more. This flies in the face of widely held perceptions of the two players — Teixeira is a multiple Gold Glove winner and Howard is, well, not. Howard has improved drastically this year and Teixeira has regressed from previous high levels. Three runs’ difference is small, and Teixeira was much better than Howard last year, so I’m going to chalk this season’s performance up to random variation and an off year for Teixeira defensively (just as off years happen with the bat, they happen with the glove too). About the throwing, the Phillies were second to last with only 12 first baseman assists to second base (the Cardinals led with 38), but the Yankees managed only two more with 14.

Derek Jeter had one of his best defensive years. Nearly every other season of his career he has been below average, often the worst in the league. (I’m not going to discuss Jeter’s defense here or in the comments, but I would refer you to Derek Jeter vs. the Baseball Researchers at Slate for a good rundown.) The three other Phillies infielders range from outstanding (Chase Utley) to good (Jimmy Rollins and Pedro Feliz). The two other Yankees, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez, are both below average.

Over All

All over the field, the Phillies have significant advantages defensively. Unlike in the American League Championship Series, the Yankees will not be able to count on defensive lapses helping them out.

Repoz Posted: October 28, 2009 at 04:49 PM | 213 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: phillies, sabermetrics, yankees

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201. AROM Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3372034)

it might not change the conclusions at all, but I think Chris 's suggestion is the best way to go. If STATS gives data to the foot, round to the nearest 5 before comparing to BIS data. I am most concerned about those two data sets because those are what fielding analysis will be based on. I don't expect Greg to personally provide all BIP data for every team, and I know how MLB handles balls that land for hits.

I second the suggestion that Ron Johnson should spend more time on Tango's blog. It is, in my opinion, the highest level of baseball discussion on the interwebbything, and Ron, you are among those who could go there and actually raise the level of discussion.

202. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:32 PM (#3372037)

Everything I've seen proposed will mis-rate players (such as Ripken) with odd skill sets. Easy play if positioned as Ripken isn't an option for players who don't have Ripken's arm.

That's a fair objection, and I certainly didn't mean to suggest that we would take the "positioning-adjusted" numbers at face value and without any other elements included in the analysis. But it would be an interesting thing to know, and we may be able to draw conclusions about what teams are better at positioning their players and such. More information is better, so long as it's accurate, and if we have it, someone will be smart enough to make good use of it.

203. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:34 PM (#3372039)

I second the suggestion that Ron Johnson should spend more time on Tango's blog. It is, in my opinion, the highest level of baseball discussion on the interwebbything, and Ron, you are among those who could go there and actually raise the level of discussion.

Ahem...thank you?

204. AROM Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:39 PM (#3372046)

Chris, I've seen you post on Tango's blog. Haven't seen Ron there unless he uses an alias.

205. Sean Forman Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3372053)

Carry on.

206. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: October 30, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3372054)

I'm teasing. RNJ is my hero.

207. philly Posted: October 30, 2009 at 10:03 PM (#3372068)

I'm the only one that's actually done the comparison between the two (publicly). Indeed, my expose is a huge push, and Peter's expose is a huger push. So, there's no need for anyone to be disappointed that I haven't done enough pushing. I suppose you can be disappointed, but you are holding me to too high a standard if that's the case.

The disappointment that I was referring to is much narrower. It's that you too often seem, imo, in these threads at BTF to skip over substantive criticisms of mgl's work.

As far as standards go, it's ironic because it seems glaring to me because in these threads you don't seem to be holding mgl to the same high standards of care that you exhibit in your own work.

No need to further distract an interesting thread with this little nit though.

208. Tango Posted: October 31, 2009 at 12:45 AM (#3372119)

But it's not even a criticism of his work. We agree that he does extensive, complex work in creating UZR, and then releasing it publicly. And he does this for two PBP systems. The criticism in this thread is that he doesn't do enough (publicly) to compare the two PBP systems. The way I see it, he's already done far more than anyone else on the fielding side, save perhaps for Pinto. And yet, you are suggesting he does even more.

As for generally speaking, I don't criticize him here, because I criticize him to his face on my blog. This, I think, is the point I try to make. He's accessible and responsive on my blog. And I make my points to him there. The people who criticize him here, when he may not even see the post, well, that speaks for itself. The side jab, the below the belt jabs, the safe haven here, there's no point to it, other than to be able to fart the criticism into the wind. It's useless.

As an example, I criticize Forman heavily on his blog (see his year 2007 thread for example). And when I do it on my blog, I link it to him, so he can see it. And I give ample evidence for my viewpoint. Even if Forman may, perhaps be annoyed with what I said, I can at least say that I'm being tough but fair, as well as open and honest.

That said, let's not harp on this issue. Here anyway. This is an otherwise fine thread.

209. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: October 31, 2009 at 02:04 AM (#3372172)

The way I see it, he's already done far more than anyone else on the fielding side, save perhaps for Pinto.

Please.

210. philly Posted: October 31, 2009 at 02:47 AM (#3372200)

But it's not even a criticism of his work. We agree that he does extensive, complex work in creating UZR, and then releasing it publicly. And he does this for two PBP systems. The criticism in this thread is that he doesn't do enough (publicly) to compare the two PBP systems. The way I see it, he's already done far more than anyone else on the fielding side, save perhaps for Pinto. And yet, you are suggesting he does even more.

Is it unfair to assume that he wants his publicly available work to be the best it can be?

Further as a relevent example, my recollection is that he originally had a very poor (perhaps non-existent?) way of handling balls of the Monster in Fenway. There was a thread like this one here - maybe even a few of them - with some of the same people pushing criticisms of his method or lack thereof. Again, this is just my recollection, but eventually he was pushed by this public criticism to change his method for dealing with balls of the monster. He did so - presumably - because he wants his publicly available work to be the best it can be. I was happy to see that and beleive that the online baseball community benefitted from that process.

In those threads I don't recall you mocking the suggestion that he could do more to improve it. You would have been wrong then too, imo.

211. Tango Posted: October 31, 2009 at 01:42 PM (#3372301)

There's no reason to think that I mocked anyone. I don't mock anyone for wanting to improve anything. I'm saying that you can't impose your standards on someone else, and then be disappointed if that person falls short of those standards.

***

And he did handle the LF park in Fenway, as he did all outfields. He had an aggressive adjustment. I said, many times, I was not happy with his particular adjustment, and we had a back and forth on it.

I presumed he changed it now because BIS tracks balls off the wall, and he's using BIS for Fangraphs.

212. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: November 05, 2009 at 02:20 PM (#3379358)

All over the field, the Phillies have significant advantages defensively. Unlike in the American League Championship Series, the Yankees will not be able to count on defensive lapses helping them out.

I don't think anyone ever does.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

NYT: Forman: Analysis: Phillies Have the Edge on Defense

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