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Friday, October 23, 2009

NYT: Rosenheck: Scioscia Will Need a Quick Hook in Game 6

Whoa! By the looks of this…Sgt. Saunders had a better chance of surviving a tour of the Sikorsky Museum.

The Angels will counter with Joe Saunders, who made the 2008 All-Star Game and is second in the American League in wins to Roy Halladay over the past two seasons.

Sounds like a good matchup, right? Not so much.

Quantitatively savvy baseball fans are well aware that the win is a flawed statistic, but few hurlers demonstrate its weaknesses better than Saunders. In 2008, his ritzy 3.41 earned run average was built upon the shakiest of foundations: a .267 batting average allowed on balls in play, known as Babip, which is next to impossible for a nonknuckleball pitcher to maintain over a lengthy period of time.

Sure enough, in 2009, his Babip reverted to the league average at .290, and his earned run average spiked to 4.60. But the Angels’ surprisingly powerful offense gave him a whopping 141 runs of support in 186 innings this season, enabling him to rack up a 16-7 record.

Beneath the surface, Saunders is nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation stopgap, thanks to a career strikeout rate barely over five per nine innings. The Yankees hit lefties and righties equally well, meaning his portsidedness is of little advantage, and as Vicente Padilla showed in the National League Championship Series, it’s extremely difficult (although of course not impossible) for a mediocre pitcher to shut down a premier lineup in two consecutive starts.

Repoz Posted: October 23, 2009 at 03:23 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, sabermetrics, yankees

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1. AROM Posted: October 23, 2009 at 03:46 PM (#3363798)

Yet Saunders did pitch 7 innings allowing only 2 runs last week in the Bronx. Sure, he might get pounded this time, but he's certainly capable of giving the Angels another strong start. He's got a chance, that's all we ask for.

And John Lackey to close in place of Brian Fuentes, if there's anything to close.

2. Shredder Posted: October 23, 2009 at 03:52 PM (#3363805)

Sure enough, in 2009, his Babip reverted to the league average at .290, and his earned run average spiked to 4.60.

Can we please stop using season long stats for guys who obviously pitched half the season while hurt, and the other half while not hurt?

Saunders pre-DL: 136 IP, 5.33 ERA, .827 OPS against
Suanders post-DL: 49.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, .696 OPS against

He's simply been a different pitcher since getting rest and a cortisone shot.

it’s extremely difficult (although of course not impossible) for a mediocre pitcher to shut down a premier lineup in two consecutive starts.

Yet Saunders has done exactly that. His last two starts against the Yankees have been pretty darn good, albeit with the help of some double play balls in the last game. 15.1 Innings, 2.35 ERA, less than a baserunner per inning, 8 strikeouts, 1 walk.

And John Lackey to close in place of Brian Fuentes, if there's anything to close.

They'll need him to pitch game seven, since at least one of these games (if there are two) is probably going to be rained out.

3. AROM Posted: October 23, 2009 at 03:56 PM (#3363808)

I thought Weaver was pitching game 7?

If it's big John, then OK, Weaver for closer. And Santana for setup man. Kazmir for loogy.

4. Shredder Posted: October 23, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3363814)

Weaver will pitch game seven if the games go on as scheduled. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Lackey back for a potential game seven if tomorrow is rained out. Obviously you don't save Lackey on the hope that game seven as scheduled will get rained out.

5. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2009 at 04:05 PM (#3363819)

The Angels could just score a lot of runs off Pettitte instead. He isn't exactly CC.

6. J. Michael Neal Posted: October 23, 2009 at 06:53 PM (#3364013)

I'd be more worried about Scioscia's ability to get the right reliever in at the right time.

7. esseff Posted: October 23, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3364072)

Sgt. Saunders had a better chance of surviving a tour of the Sikorsky Museum

Now that's just wrong.

8. Halofan Posted: October 23, 2009 at 10:16 PM (#3364214)

Colonel Saunders. Secret Recipe and all...

9. Howie Menckel Posted: October 24, 2009 at 03:12 AM (#3364345)

"it’s extremely difficult (although of course not impossible) for a mediocre pitcher to shut down a premier lineup in two consecutive starts."

If I'm understanding this correctly (maybe not), didn't he already 'shut down' a 'premier' lineup once?

Once that's done, his chances of shutting them down again are not lessened because he just did it (mostly, it's irrelevant - or one could claim he figured something out in the first game).

It seems way too late to predict the unlikelihood of Saunders having two straight good starts vs the Yanks, once one of the games has already occurred....

10. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: October 24, 2009 at 04:10 AM (#3364355)

The "mediocre pitcher" already shut down a premier lineup in two consecutive starts. What that means for game 6 isn't really clear.

The "back-of-the-rotation stopgap" comment does have predictive value however, though probably not quite in the way the author intends.

11. Sunday silence Posted: October 24, 2009 at 10:14 AM (#3364417)

Lots of cogent comments above. I start to distrust an article when it starts to use stastics in a meaningful way and then has no qualms about turning around and using more stats that are misleading...

Like strike out ratio. If the guys ERA and ba are excellent who cares about KO? And vice versa if his ERA is bad. Why toss out the strike out ratio thing, other than tossing another log on the fire when you have nothing else left.

Besides, are knuckleball guys supposed to have lots of strikeouts?

I think it was very interesting comment about Saunders' post DL statistics. One thing Id like to see; What was Saunders post DL BABIP? To me it seems like knuckleballers could be the one type of pitcher that might have unusually low BABIP as the ball seems to....I dunno balls just dont jump off the bat like normal pitches. Just a hunch here I have no statistical knowledge but it wouldnt suprise me if his BABIP reverted to unusually low numbers after the DL as he is a knuckleballer.

12. Young Blasarius yonder Posted: October 24, 2009 at 11:29 AM (#3364423)

Just a hunch here I have no statistical knowledge but it wouldnt suprise me if his BABIP reverted to unusually low numbers after the DL as he is a knuckleballer.

Ummm...Saunders isn't a knuckleball pitcher.

13. Sunday silence Posted: October 24, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3364479)

Sorry I misread that. He's: "mon knuckleball..." I guess I just saw the "..knuckle" part and figured he had to be referring to...

Oh Hell I dont know what I was thinking, I guess I need to check my meds now...

14. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: October 24, 2009 at 03:23 PM (#3364493)

Beneath the surface, Saunders is nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation stopgap

...who, since coming back off the DL in August, Mr. Mediocre (a deserving 2008 All-Star) went 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA. No telling how Saunders will do tonight — the Yankees are, after all, the Yankees — but people need to stop talking about Saunders like he's some afterthought. Saunders is a very good, very tough lefty, and if/when the Yankees do get to him tonight, it won't be because he's some talentless scrub, but because they're a damn good-hitting ballclub.

Saunders is a "back of the rotation" starter for the Angels only because the Angels have one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball.

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Friday, October 23, 2009

NYT: Rosenheck: Scioscia Will Need a Quick Hook in Game 6

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