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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT-P: July: Obamacare Decision as Baseball: the Runner is Safe, so Now What?

My favorite play in baseball is the second base steal. In the play, the base runner watches the pitch, and at just the right moment, he sprints toward second. The catcher snatches the pitch, springs up and rockets the ball to the second baseman who snags it and tries to tag the runner as he slides into the base. As the dust clears, all eyes are on the second base umpire who, in a split second, calls the runner safe or out. When the play is over, the players dust themselves off, and the game goes on.

Some on the field may disagree with the umpire’s call.  However, the umpire’s decision is final, and arguing can get you ejected. To stay in the game, great teams simply adjust their strategy based on the umpire’s call.

 

Morty Causa Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:26 PM | 4025 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: politics, special topics

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   2401. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 16, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4184133)
Winners set the rules, but me? I think a man's gotta have a code.


A code? That's just another way of saying I don't accept the winners' rules, right? We're back to mighty thews and furry codpieces.
   2402. The Good Face Posted: July 16, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4184146)
We're back to mighty thews and furry codpieces.


You say that like it's a bad thing.
   2403. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 16, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4184158)
You say that like it's a bad thing.


Good? Bad? I'm the guy with the gun.
   2404. zonk Posted: July 16, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4184204)
I got it, I got it... I know your damn words, alright?
   2405. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 16, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4184349)
   2406. streak of perros Posted: July 16, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4184386)
Winners set the rules, but me? I think a man's gotta have a code.


When I am king, programmers will be the first against the wall.

If it's you and me in a room and there's enough for for only one of us to live, I might well consider it necessary to kill you so that I may live; that doesn't make it morally justifiable simply because it is practically justifiable.


We all die. Might be best to share and go out together.
   2407. streak of perros Posted: July 16, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4184388)
I'd prefer to go out on my own idiosyncratic terms than any forced upon me by custom, nature, or even conscience.

Who is Keyser Söze?
   2408. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:31 AM (#4184614)
We all die.


Who wants, to live, FOREVER!
   2409. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4185334)
Not to bring things back to politics, but it has been a terrible week for Romney. I don't think individual weeks matter all that much (marathon ... sprint ... blah ... blah ... blah), but so far the Romney team has not effectively responded to the Bain attacks or the "release your taxes" attacks. It is sort of building up and if they are not careful the media and everyone else will jump on the bandwagon. It is really hard to reverse inertia once it gets going.

The speculation around his tax returns is getting pretty exotic, I think they need to do something, but they really don't want to release them.
   2410. Brian C Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4185344)
So far this election is looking a lot like 2008, when the general shape of the contest took hold pretty early after the primaries and never seemed to change much. Obama's polling margin is a little slimmer now than it was back at this point in 2008, but it doesn't seem to change much regardless of what happens. Whenever it fluctuates to any substantial degree, it does right back to where it was a day or two later.
   2411. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4185369)
I don't get the Republicans on taxes. Your whole platform is that the last four years sucked, wouldn't that also include the tax rates that you set for the last ten years?
   2412. booond Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4185378)
So far this election is looking a lot like 2008


Reminds me much like 2004. Weak opponent for sitting president who hasn't had a great first four years. Define opponent by crushing his strength. Opponent is dumbfounded by attack at strength and has no comeback - Kerrey, at the very least should've been surprised, Mitt has had to fend off Bain attacks almost every year since 1994.

Forget the politics but Obama's a much better candidate. Romney's a stiff who's only comfortable working a calculator. Obama's the guy we want to watch a game with. If he wasn't African-American it'd be 55-45.
   2413. zonk Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4185404)

Reminds me much like 2004. Weak opponent for sitting president who hasn't had a great first four years. Define opponent by crushing his strength. Opponent is dumbfounded by attack at strength and has no comeback - Kerrey, at the very least should've been surprised, Mitt has had to fend off Bain attacks almost every year since 1994.

Forget the politics but Obama's a much better candidate. Romney's a stiff who's only comfortable working a calculator. Obama's the guy we want to watch a game with. If he wasn't African-American it'd be 55-45.


There are plenty of folks that believe the same - and I'm one of them.

Team Obama isn't Team Standard Democratic Campaign Team --- they hit hard... call it smash mouth politics, call it ##### slap politics, call it Chicago politics -- but I call it the same treatment Team Rove gave Kerry in 2004.

In fact, given that Mitt has pretty much disowned his term as MA Governor -- and he's running wholly on his 'private sector business acumen', I would say that pounding him unmercifully over Bain is perfectly fair.

Up is down, black is white -- this time around it's the GOP that's all flustered with the OUTRAGE! APOLOGIZE! sissy responses.

Man, if it hadn't been for that stupid debt ceiling fight - I think we'd have a much better economy (possibly still slowing, but we'd have had a better year to slow from) and Obama would be up 15.

I've been a Democrat virtually my entire life and it's kind of fun being on the team that knows what it's doing* for a change.

*Yeah, yeah - Team Clinton... but except for maybe Carville, Team Clinton was basically built on Bill's enormous talents as a politician.
   2414. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4185411)
If he wasn't African-American it'd be 55-45.


I think there is some truth to this, but I am not sure how much. I think long term his being A-A helps the democratic party, but in the short term it definitely hurts some places (and likely hurts in most). In 2008 I think it may have helped (but I have scene data that suggests it hurt up to 4%, but I thought it a bit simplistic, but certainly better than any analysis I have done on the subject).

It is silly early, but 2016 is going to be fascinating. The demographic changes will continue (country less white, young cohort continues aging, gay marriage and other social issues continue moving away from GOP core positions) and I doubt the GOP will be ready to change course, and it is very likely that two white males will be contesting at the top of the ticket (OK their might be a female there, but likely white). The GOP has a real chance to crater at that point. Basically Obama being A-A is helping "disguise" the 'emerging democratic majority' (if you believe in that theory, I admit I am not sure demographics are destiny).

Of course the economy and national security will still be wild cards that trump many things, and the future is ever surprising.

Back to 2012 - I have seen nothing that has changed my opinion that Obama is very likely to win.
   2415. zonk Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4185413)
BTW -

It's only partisans that will enjoy it -- but I've found the 'Chronicles of Mitt' series penned by one the DailyKos posters to be absolutely hilarious...

Hello again, human diary. It is I, Mitt Romney, your better.

This really is no fun anymore. I do believe these people are serious in their insistence on wanting to know more details about how I made my vast fortune. We have sent out surrogate units to respond by suggesting that the president is acting insufficiently American, since questioning wealth is one of the least American things we can imagine, but so far the results are quite mixed. Even some of the units on my own side have been not on my side.

If questioning the national authenticity of the president is insufficient, and if threatening to perhaps make that Sarah Palin person our vice presidential nominee if everyone does not immediately silence themselves is insufficient, and if asserting that whatever may have happened during those irritating years retroactively did not happen after all is also insufficient, I am at a loss as to what our campaign should do next. While I am surprised myself to be saying it, Mr. Diary, this now seems above the level that merely blowing bubbles or honking bus horns can deal with. It does not even seem the sort of thing that the Super PACs can help with, although perhaps they will surprise me.

All I can do is keep reminding the commoner units that I, as a unit of great wealth, understand what it is like to want money very badly, and that they should therefore vote for me as the American thing to do. Surely, we are not so cruel a nation as to truly subject a wealth unit to the same scrutiny that other, less wealthy candidates are given. Even imagining such a thing is frightening.
   2416. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4185414)
Team Clinton was basically built on Bill's enormous talents as a politician.


It is interesting because both Bill and Barack are incredible politicians, but so very different. Bill is a natural politician who connects with people. Barack is a natural politician who seems to make good decisions, has built a great organization, and keeps his cool. Both are pragmatic, crazy smart and policy wonks in their own way. And to be fair to the other side Reagan was a great politician and yet very different than the other two.

   2417. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4185416)
It's only partisans that will enjoy it -- but I've found the 'Chronicles of Mitt' series penned by one the DailyKos posters to be absolutely hilarious...


I love it when those show up in my RSS feed on my phone. They are very shallow and unfair as all get out, and I agree only funny to the 'D'. But I still do enjoy them.
   2418. Lassus Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4185423)
   2419. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4185434)
Rush not first to embrace Bane meme.

While I don't give two shits for Rush, it isn't as if he's the first to play this rather lame angle.
   2420. Lassus Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4185441)
He seems committed to being the stupidest about it, though.
   2421. zonk Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4185446)
While I don't give two shits for Rush, it isn't as if he's the first to play this rather lame angle.


Hmmmm.... perhaps Romney is just like Roberts - a secret manchurian liberal who actually decided to name the firm he built "Bain" because he knew that one day, he'd have to be a weak opponent to ensure Obama's reelection.

It goes deeper than Rush thinks...
   2422. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4185454)
Almost as dumb as wild outrage over olympic uniforms.
   2423. Randy Jones Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4185473)
Rush Limbaugh is hilariously insane.

Rush Limbaugh: Batman Villain Was Named “Bane” To Hurt Mitt Romney


The character that first appeared in comics around 20 years ago and that was chosen as a villain for the movie like 3 years ago?
   2424. booond Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4185474)
Almost as dumb as wild outrage over olympic uniforms.


Best thing about the olympic uniforms was Mitt dodging the issue Friday night. I first thought he was trying to stay on message but, instead, he had a Burmese skeleton in his closet. Made me laugh.
   2425. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4185477)
The speculation around his tax returns is getting pretty exotic, I think they need to do something, but they really don't want to release them.


I think it's pretty simple for Mitt, actually.

In order to win the Presidency, he has to win 65+% or more of the white working class vote. Otherwise the demographics and the fact that the GOP has alienated 90% of any female or pigmented voters kills him.

In order to win 65+% of the white working class vote, Mitt Romney must convince the undecideds of that block that he is like them enough to represent their interests as POTUS.

If he releases tax returns that shows his billions of dollars in forensic detail, including his gaming of the system to offshore wealth, play with shares in lieu of cash in his IRA, etc, the undecideds are going to look at him like an alien robot from another planet. Releasing a record of his vast wealth and the forensic evidence of how the 1% game the tax system in ways normal people can't will alienate the voters he has to win in order to take the election.
   2426. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4185564)
Well, it's "bane" I mean that's a made-up word, right?

What?

oh
   2427. zonk Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4185718)
the undecideds are going to look at him like an alien robot from another planet.


going to?

Did the unceasing discomfort talking to, about, or even by proxy about people via policy not sell that?

I don't think I've ever seen a person more uncomfortable around people. Hey - look - I've heard the stories about how wonderful Mitt when you know him intimately... but on a political stage, to the great unwashed masses, he just screams "that guy you never met and knows nothing about you, but decided to downsize your entire department last year."

Even if you're able to understand the logic behind a downsizing, even if you're able to intellectually appreciate the how and why... that's just not going to be something that makes you think "yeah, I want to vote for that guy."
   2428. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4185740)
Rush Limbaugh: Batman Villain Was Named “Bane” To Hurt Mitt Romney

Not that they're flailing, or anything.
   2429. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4185742)
Hey - look - I've heard the stories about how wonderful Mitt when you know him intimately... but on a political stage, to the great unwashed masses, he just screams "that guy you never met and knows nothing about you, but decided to downsize your entire department last year."

Or as some blog commenter (forget where) glibly put it, he comes off as a prick in a suit.
   2430. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:05 AM (#4185747)
[2428] Did someone say flailing???

Well, if beans and grapes were jokes and japes, I'll play!!!


PHOENIX (AP) — Investigators for an Arizona sheriff's volunteer posse have declared that President Barack Obama's birth certificate is definitely fraudulent.

Members of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's posse said in March that there was probable cause that Obama's long-form birth certificate released by the White House in April 2011 was a computer-generated forgery.

Now, Arpaio says investigators are positive it's fraudulent.

Mike Zullo, the posse's chief investigator, said numeric codes on certain parts of the birth certificate indicate that those parts weren't filled out, yet those sections asking for the race of Obama's father and his field of work or study were completed.

Zullo said investigators previously didn't know the meaning of codes but they were explained by a 95-year-old former state worker who signed the president's birth certificate. Zullo said a writer who published a book about Obama's birth certificate and was aiding investigators let them listen in on an interview he conducted of the former state worker.
   2431. RollingWave Posted: July 18, 2012 at 03:54 AM (#4185768)
It is mildly frustrating / amusing / interesting though that 538 shows Obama having something like the upper 60% in chances to win, but only 2% ish lead in the popular vote. I 'd like Obama to win too but at the end of the day this voting system seems jusssst a bit outdated.... as it's design to completely shut out any chance of a 3rd party from ever being feasable.
   2432. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 07:33 AM (#4185791)
Not that they're flailing, or anything.


This, more than any specifics of the campaign, is what makes me think of 2004 (inverted.) The opposition are so sure of their own self righteous cause that they have no idea how they could possibly be losing. A quick tour through the gasping outrage of Fox, Commentary, NRO, etc is hilariously similar to a tour through Kos, Nation, etc in '04. Such is the nature of living entirely within an echo chamber.

It is mildly frustrating / amusing / interesting though that 538 shows Obama having something like the upper 60% in chances to win, but only 2% ish lead in the popular vote


Nate admits that something has to give between his probability predictions and the national vote. It's highly unlikely that the margins in swing states holds up without the national popular vote swinging out to meet it (although I suppose you could argue that a lot of partisans from solid red states are going to vote in numbers, for no real reason other than their own paranoid outrage.)

I 'd like Obama to win too but at the end of the day this voting system seems jusssst a bit outdated.... as it's design to completely shut out any chance of a 3rd party from ever being feasable.


Agreed. The EC is archaic.
   2433. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:39 AM (#4185819)
The election is a bit like 2004 from the mirror universe. And the EC is a bit odd. I would prefer a system of either popular vote or having states able to be split/apportioned.

Winner of a state gets its two senate EC votes and then winner of each house district gets its vote, anything to avoid having the election boil down to 100,000 voters in four states (or whatever it ends up being) that matter and everyone else going through the motions, knowing their vote is essentially worthless* (on the presidential level).

* Yes this is hyperbole.
   2434. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:46 AM (#4185825)
What does everyone think is in Mitt's returns that he won't release them? I think the 2 issues raised by the Obama team (Bain- who did the layoffs, when did he leave) and the tax returns are relatively small potatoes but why won't he release them? There must be something slightly embarassing.
   2435. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:59 AM (#4185836)
* Yes this is hyperbole


No it's not. I live in Georgia. There is *no way* that my vote has any value whatsoever in the 2012 general election.
   2436. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:05 AM (#4185845)
What does everyone think is in Mitt's returns that he won't release them?


1. That he's really rich.
2. That he's really, really rich.
3. That he plays by the tax rules of the really, really rich, not by the tax rules of we mere proles.
4. That he's really, really, really rich.

None of the attempts by his partisans to deflect the import of that singular fact - Mitt Romney is extremely ####### wealthy - changes the fact that for the voters he must convince to vote for him; the voters who he must assure that he would represent their interests; working class voters in Rust Belt swing states, his extreme wealth makes him less likable as an option.

The talking heads a Fox can go on and on about how "we already know he's rich, and that's good, because, America, #### Yeah!" all they want, but they're spinning to avoid the fact that Mitt Romney needs a lot of middle class Ohioans and Michiganeers to vote for him, and in order to do that he has to have them identify with him. And plopping down tax returns that detail how absurdly ####### rich the guy is doesn't help that cause; it hurts it.
   2437. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4185853)
What does everyone think is in Mitt's returns that he won't release them?


My favorite is the theory about the 2009 amnesty offered after the Swiss announced they were going to "rat out" their accounts to various authorities. Iamgine the #### storm if it was discovered that Romney had an undeclared Swiss bank account that he disclosed under threat of the Swiss revealing it, after taking advantage of an IRS amnesty.

Another good one is if he (his accountants) went too far, a return got audited, and he ended up paying penalties and such.

A third (more boring one) is he managed to pay zero in taxes at least one year. Being rich is OK. Playing by the rules is OK. Paying nothing in taxes* one year has terrible optics, especially because the GOP makes a big deal of the x% of poor people who don't pay taxes*.

If he did more than just take advantage and got caught it would be deadly. Much more deadly than just being rich. It is only something like the three examples above that could justify refusing to release - unless he is just being stubborn and foolish. I mean seriously this is a tradition in US politics and not exactly a surprise.

* Yes I realize paying no taxes is not really the case here, there are plenty of taxes still being paid, but "No Taxes" is how it is talked about.
   2438. Lassus Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4185857)
And plopping down tax returns that detail how absurdly ####### rich the guy is doesn't help that cause; it hurts it.

The thing is, my possibly worthless opinion about this is that they are wrong, actually. I think a lot of people would trust a guy who made a bazillion dollars. In fact, if Romney was more of a genuine, true, srtaight-up ass hole, with the same amount of money, he would probably walk away with this election.

But, he's not. His personality seems very weaselly and waffly, and that translates even more than extreme wealth to a lack of relating to real people. I have always (again, mostly singularly) thought pandering to the middle is a bad idea for a decent percentage of people trying to get elected, and Romney is in that percentage.
   2439. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4185861)
A third (more boring one) is he managed to pay zero in taxes at least one year. Being rich is OK. Playing by the rules is OK. Paying nothing in taxes* one year has terrible optics, especially because the GOP makes a big deal of the x% of poor people who don't pay taxes*.


FWIW - this is my bet.

   2440. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4185863)
What does everyone think is in Mitt's returns that he won't release them? I think the 2 issues raised by the Obama team (Bain- who did the layoffs, when did he leave) and the tax returns are relatively small potatoes but why won't he release them? There must be something slightly embarassing.


They are small potatoes - but it's a bright pastel for the Obama camp to use to paint their opponent the way that they want to paint him. It's not going to sway any partisans and anyone that goes about voting in a rational, circumspect manner probably isn't going to be swayed by it... but I think it's an absolute heat-seeking missile into the middle class white male vote that will probably determine whether Mitt wins or not. Obama isn't expecting (nor does he need) their votes; he just needs them to NOT vote for Mitt.

Negative campaigning is generally intended to drive down turnout. That's usually a risky gambit for Democrats because Republican voters tend to be more reliable, but I think it's the right needle for Obama to try to thread here.
   2441. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:47 AM (#4185873)
i don't think 538 is making sufficient allowances for the new voter id laws, particularly in pennsylvania and ohio

everyone in gop circles is adamant that unless the courts get in the way at minimum the president has lost 550,000 votes between the two states which gives romney a huge chance of success
   2442. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4185875)
zonk

all the research i have seen is that angry gop voters do vote while angry dem voters shun the polls in disgust.

anger works for the gop

dems need to be inspired/excited
   2443. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4185891)
everyone in gop circles is adamant that unless the courts get in the way at minimum the president has lost 550,000 votes between the two states which gives romney a huge chance of success


If the GOP "wins" and election by suppressing half a million votes, #### is going to hit the fan.
   2444. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4185893)
Rush not first to embrace Bane meme.

While I don't give two shits for Rush, it isn't as if he's the first to play this rather lame angle.


Oh hell, I was just talking in my office yesterday and we were wondering when some nutters were going to make this claim....

I remember back in 2006 when the [dwarf] planet Eris was named- Eris is the goddess of discord or some such thing- the name had to do with the dispute in Astronomical circles over the definition of "planet"- which dispute ended up with Pluto being demoted. Well some rightwingnut site apparently saw that this new planet was being named after the goddess of discord and- and knowing nothing of the discord over the definition of planets and Pluto's demotion- assumed that the new planet was name as a slap at Dubya... to be fair to the rightwingnuts another group also saw a connection between Bush's presidency and the naming of anew planet after "discord"- astrologers...

Remember when Rush claimed that a certain QB was overrated? In and of itself a defensible position- my default position is that QBs oftentimes get too much credit for a team's success (and too much blame for failure)- and average QB in a good team will be deemed good, the same guy on a bad team will be deemed poor. Nope that wasn't it, this QB was overrated because he was black, because the MSM was looking for a black QB to hype.

Rush is what you call a conspiratorial thinker, he thinks in conspiracies, he thinks up conspiracies, if he wasn't a radio host he'd be either a political dirty tricks operative, a corporate dirty tricks operative, or some guy in a shack out in the desert "researching" the continued existence of the Knights Templar- more to the point is he thinks/ assumes that everyone else thinks like he does- not that they think the same things- but that they think the same way. Everyone has hidden- usually nefarious, motives- and it's those hidden motives that animate people.
   2445. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4185903)
if he wasn't a radio host he'd be either a political dirty tricks operative, a corporate dirty tricks operative, or some guy in a shack out in the desert "researching" the continued existence of the Knights Templar- more to the point is he thinks/ assumes that everyone else thinks like he does- not that they think the same things- but that they think the same way. Everyone has hidden- usually nefarious, motives- and it's those hidden motives that animate people.


Fifteen million like-minded idiots in the world, apparently.
   2446. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4185928)
sam

the gop didn't suppress anything. laws were passed in these states

not a fan of this approach. i believe in encouraging the vote. but the legisltative procoess was honored.

   2447. Craig in MN Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4185934)
A third (more boring one) is he managed to pay zero in taxes at least one year. Being rich is OK. Playing by the rules is OK. Paying nothing in taxes* one year has terrible optics, especially because the GOP makes a big deal of the x% of poor people who don't pay taxes*.



It's not even that he paid zero taxes. If his rate was in the single digits it's terrible for the campaign. The Bush/Obama tax cuts are up again and the Dems are pushing for only extending them up to 200k & Reps want them all kept. That is going to be the main legislative issue during the heart of the campaign. Romney just can't argue that taxes on rich people absolutely can't go up if he's paying 0% or 4% or even 8%. He's barely able to do so now when the narrative says his tax rate is "less than 15%". How are Republicans going to win that issue?

It is astounding how bad of a candidate Mitt Romney is. He's got a real chance to win because the economy stinks, but there isn't any constituency that actually likes him, he can't talk about his business experience because it turns off voters, he won't talk about his governing experience because it turns off his party, he can't talk about his family & personal life because he's afraid of the Mormon fallout, he can't stand up to any constituency in his party because either he's chicken or they're crazy. I can't help but expect the convention to be a complete shambles with no one able to say anything nice about Romney and a million crazy uncontrolled attacks on Obama. The only thing he can do is hope for turmoil and blame Obama and hope that low turnout and election law changes can hand him a victory.
   2448. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4185936)
zonk

all the research i have seen is that angry gop voters do vote while angry dem voters shun the polls in disgust.

anger works for the gop

dems need to be inspired/excited


Absolutely - like I said, it's a risky Dem strategy, but it's probably the best one for Obama. Time is pretty much up -- or fast approaching being up -- for good economic news to have an impact. Maybe, if we get good August and September jobs reports, he can adjust the right track/wrong track numbers a bit - but by mid-summer before the election, perceptions on that matter generally get set for the fall campaign.

The best available option is make sure persuadables/leaners/low info voters like Mitt less -- Obama won't be looking to peel off many of those votes, he'll just be looking for them to pox both houses. He doesn't need to romp unaffiliated/indies - just win by a few points.
   2449. Shredder Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4185946)
not a fan of this approach. i believe in encouraging the vote. but the legisltative procoess was honored.
Who cares if the legislative process was followed? That doesn't mean it's not voter suppression. When you remove legal voters from the voter rolls, like Florida is trying to do, or you pass a law making it extremely difficult for people to exercise a fundamental right, that's voter suppression, regardless of whether it went through the legislative process.
   2450. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4185947)
i don't think 538 is making sufficient allowances for the new voter id laws, particularly in pennsylvania and ohio


Obama likely won't lose Pennsylvania. Ohio is more likely. Still one reason I am confident is ground game, Obama has the best nation wide ground game ever seen. Romney is following in the McCain theory of Air War > Ground War. Bush II had a strong ground game, the campaign cared about it, and it mattered.

all the research i have seen is that angry gop voters do vote while angry dem voters shun the polls in disgust.


The latest enthusiasm polls I have seen suggest the D is more enthusiastic than the R. I suspect that is more significant than where exactly the enthusiasm comes from. Plus 2004 showed it is easier to get people (especially independants) to vote for than just against. And Romney's whole campaign seems to be to get people to vote against Obama.

But the truth is no one knows until the election (that's why they run the race).

   2451. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4185953)
And Romney's whole campaign seems to be to get people to vote against Obama.


Path of least resistance, it's easier to do that than to get people to vote FOR Romney.
   2452. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM (#4185957)
shredder

the distinction is that this wasn't some covert effort done in secret

elected officials cast public votes on this topic and accept the consequences of the public had other thoughts on the matter

i am not oblivious to the realities

   2453. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4185967)
Who cares if the legislative process was followed? That doesn't mean it's not voter suppression.


Well there is a difference between legal and illegal voter supression. One is annoying and perhaps immoral, the other is a threat to Democracy.

I personally wish there were national voter laws (more complete ones). Voting (especially for federal offices obviously) seems to fall under somethign the federal government can and should care about and have proper scope to control (Note: I have no idea what exactly the various constitutional lawer types would say about this, but I would be interested).

It just seems dumb to me that you can vote by mail in some states, easily early vote in others, some have same day registration, and others deny all that and require hoops to jump through. It does not seem very "equal protectiony" and seems very open to gaming by all sides.

Pick a natinal standard. Debate that standard. Go with it.And yes I am sure I am taking a implistic view of the whole thing.

EDIT: What do the libertarians think? It is not clear to me what Libertarian ideology says - should their be state or federal control of voting?
   2454. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4185969)
The latest enthusiasm polls I have seen suggest the D is more enthusiastic than the R. I suspect that is more significant than where exactly the enthusiasm comes from. Plus 2004 showed it is easier to get people (especially independants) to vote for than just against. And Romney's whole campaign seems to be to get people to vote against Obama.


The NYT had some result out this morning that showed the opposite -- R enthusiasm up over D -- but the saving grace of the results is that it was mostly in the field prior to Mitt's bad week and Team Obama landing some real haymakers.

Still, as Nate always says -- polls are snapshots, not predictors -- so we'll have to see what the trendlines say going forward.
   2455. Shredder Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4185993)
the distinction is that this wasn't some covert effort done in secret
Nobody said it was. If we passed a constitutional amendment that said legal immigrants have no first amendment rights, would your position be that we're not suppressing the speech of immigrants because the new amendment went through the proper process and nobody did anything in secret? That's ridiculous.

But now that you bring it up, I think it's pretty clear that while not covert or secret, the GOP has been completely dishonest about their motives, couching the issue as an "integrity of the vote" issue when it's fairly obvious that the intent of the laws is to discourage typically Democratic constituencies from voting. Apparently suppressing thousands of legal votes is the price they feel society must pay to keep even one alleged fraudulent vote from being cast. And of course, there's nothing in voter ID statutes that actually address the issue of (alleged) fraudulent voting.
   2456. jobu Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4186017)
It is astounding how bad of a candidate Mitt Romney is. He's got a real chance to win because the economy stinks, but there isn't any constituency that actually likes him, he can't talk about his business experience because it turns off voters, he won't talk about his governing experience because it turns off his party, he can't talk about his family & personal life because he's afraid of the Mormon fallout, he can't stand up to any constituency in his party because either he's chicken or they're crazy.

Hard for me to argue with any of this--very well said.

The ironic thing to me is that the challenger is likely to get outflanked on the economy by an incumbent--in a time when the economy is not good.

I just saw this Democratic PAC ad. I searched BBTF and didn't see that it was posted before. It is a blue collar worker talking about building the very stage than the Bain Capital execs used 3 days later to close the plan and let all the workers go. It's only running in a few states, but I think it could be the Dukakis Tank ad of 2012.

The economy is troubled, but Obama will say "I saved the US auto industry when Mitt Romney wanted it to go bankrupt." Then hammer Romney on Bain Capital and job creation, and his apparent hypocrisy on taxes. I believe it will be very hard for Romney to win as many middle-class voters as he needs.
   2457. Shredder Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4186030)
The economy is troubled, but Obama will say "I saved the US auto industry when Mitt Romney wanted it to go bankrupt." Then hammer Romney on Bain Capital and job creation, and his apparent hypocrisy on taxes. I believe it will be very hard for Romney to win as many middle-class voters as he needs.
With regard to the economy, Obama is probably also helped by the seemingly higher profile being given to Congress recently. It would be one thing if a bunch of Democratic proposals were getting through and things still weren't getting better. But it's pretty easy to point the finger at Congress and say "our policies would work if Congress wasn't actively trying to tank the economy". Whether you believe the Republicans in Congress are trying to tank the economy or not, it's a fairly effective parry. Especially when you have them on record saying that their only goal of the last four years was to defeat Obama. You also have a bunch of Congressmen who decried the stimulus and who spend a lot of hot air explaining how it hurt the economy, while also showing up at ribbon cuttings on projects that were funded thank almost entirely to the stimulus.
   2458. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4186043)
I just saw this Democratic PAC ad. I searched BBTF and didn't see that it was posted before. It is a blue collar worker talking about building the very stage than the Bain Capital execs used 3 days later to close the plan and let all the workers go. It's only running in a few states, but I think it could be the Dukakis Tank ad of 2012.


That's a love tap compared to the buzz-worthy Firms ad that Team Obama dropped last week... just a brutal haymaker of an ad (well over a million YouTube views already).

I think it's easily the best attack ad I've ever seen out of a Democratic campaign and in terms of pummeling, I think Karl Rove is privately saying "that's pretty good..." even if, in public, he's saying it's a mistake.
   2459. booond Posted: July 18, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4186046)
With regard to the economy, Obama is probably also helped by the seemingly higher profile being given to Congress recently. It would be one thing if a bunch of Democratic proposals were getting through and things still weren't getting better. But it's pretty easy to point the finger at Congress and say "our policies would work if Congress wasn't actively trying to tank the economy". Whether you believe the Republicans in Congress are trying to tank the economy or not, it's a fairly effective parry. Especially when you have them on record saying that their only goal of the last four years was to defeat Obama. You also have a bunch of Congressmen who decried the stimulus and who spend a lot of hot air explaining how it hurt the economy, while also showing up at ribbon cuttings on projects that were funded thank almost entirely to the stimulus.


People don't pay enough attention for this to matter. Americans believe that if someone's stated goal is to defeat you then it's your job to push back. If you don't then you aren't worth voting for. If Obama brings that up he looks weak. Don't apologize, don't appease. Kick your opponent in the balls and keep kicking until the blood stops flowing. Obama has Romney with Bain and his taxes. That's his biggest weakness and Obama has to pick that scab until he's peeled Romney's skin away.

   2460. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4186054)
But now that you bring it up, I think it's pretty clear that while not covert or secret, the GOP has been completely dishonest about their motives, couching the issue as an "integrity of the vote" issue when it's fairly obvious that the intent of the laws is to discourage typically Democratic constituencies from voting.


Poll taxes and grandfather clauses were legal at the time. They were still obvious voter suppression tactics. The GOP's strategy is to leverage local governors and legislatures to gerrymander national elections. They house in empty, vapid rhetoric of "preventing voter fraud" and of course, their base (being paranoid lunatics - see also Limbaugh, Rush) buy into it and use that to pretend (to themselves) that they're not intentionally suppressing voters they don't like.
   2461. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4186060)
It would be one thing if a bunch of Democratic proposals were getting through and things still weren't getting better. But it's pretty easy to point the finger at Congress and say "our policies would work if Congress wasn't actively trying to tank the economy". Whether you believe the Republicans in Congress are trying to tank the economy or not, it's a fairly effective parry.


1: I believe absolutely that the GOP in Congress is/was intentionally trying to tank the economy, as well as some GOP Governors
2: I'm not sure its is an effective parry- you don't have to convince me that's what the Republicans were doing- you don't have to convince the demo base either- you need to convince the undecideds- and that is going to be much harder.


   2462. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4186064)
It would be one thing if a bunch of Democratic proposals were getting through and things still weren't getting better. But it's pretty easy to point the finger at Congress and say "our policies would work if Congress wasn't actively trying to tank the economy". Whether you believe the Republicans in Congress are trying to tank the economy or not, it's a fairly effective parry.




1: I believe absolutely that the GOP in Congress is/was intentionally trying to tank the economy, as well as some GOP Governors
2: I'm not sure its is an effective parry- you don't have to convince me that's what the Republicans were doing- you don't have to convince the demo base either- you need to convince the undecideds- and that is going to be much harder.


Worked for Truman -- his entire '48 campaign was built on taking the "do nothing congress" to task... 'course - that was a rather famously close election.
   2463. Brian C Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4186087)
'course - that was a rather famously close election.

It wasn't really all that close, though - the Trib just ###### it up.
   2464. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4186095)
'course - that was a rather famously close election.


Truman was not well liked at the time, the economy tanked after the War (not his fault- the conversion from a war economy to a peacetime economy was bound to cause massive dislocations), but the GOP led congress misread the reason for their 1946 victories- they saw it as mandate to undo the New Deal- so while Harry was unpopular, Congress was even more unpopular...

and polling was abysmal back then- even though they knew better after various polling fiascos in the 30s, almost no one was yet doing properly randomized sampling, or doing enough polling*.

Anyway, it actually wasn't THAT close- Truman had a greater margin of victory than Dubya in 04, 00, Carter in 76, Nixon in 68, Kennedy in 60.

*Polling flaws included in no particular order:

failing to keep polling- almost no polling was done closer than 2 weeks to the election

ignoring undecideds- all the polls had high numbers of undecided voters- pollsters decided that they would either not vote, would vote the way they had in 1946, or would vote the way everyone else did. It was Gallup who in response to 1948 came up with the dubious rule of thumb that undecideds will go for the incumbent

failing to have proper samples- progress was being and but the polling sample still skewed towards the "upper classes" and away from the lower middle/working class.

So the three major polling firms all had Dewey up by 5 to 15%- and Truman won by 5. in "reality," while Truman probably did have a late surge to put him over the top, he was running roughly even all along- but systemic polling biases were giving 5-10 points to Dewey.

It was the Polling that lead to the famous Dewey Beats Truman gaffe not the closeness of the race.
   2465. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4186114)
Michiganeers

That's "Michiganders." Spoken as a long-time Michigander.
   2466. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4186116)
shredder

the gop realized about 10-15 years ago that nation demographics worked against especially the latino vote hence the focus on social issues that they thought would close the gap such as abortion and gay marriage

but they shot themselves in the foot obssessing about immigration

the voter id laws were plan b to be executed if the perception was that other efforts weren't gaining traction.

note that just as with gay marriage the voter id effort was a coordinated, orchestrated nationwide effort done at approximatlely the same time with prewritten legislation and prepackaged talking points provided by the party to local state officials

this is pretty clear to anyone paying attention so i see no harm in stating the obvious

dems might want to stop wringing their hands and get off their backsides and do something
   2467. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4186119)
A third (more boring one) is he managed to pay zero in taxes at least one year. Being rich is OK. Playing by the rules is OK. Paying nothing in taxes* one year has terrible optics, especially because the GOP makes a big deal of the x% of poor people who don't pay taxes*.

This is, IMO, what's most likely (and probably the motivation for not releasing them). I mean, it can't be just that he's really rich, can it? Everyone knows that already.

EDIT: Coke to zonk.
   2468. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4186134)
But now that you bring it up, I think it's pretty clear that while not covert or secret, the GOP has been completely dishonest about their motives, couching the issue as an "integrity of the vote" issue when it's fairly obvious that the intent of the laws is to discourage typically Democratic constituencies from voting.

Except for that PA GOP congressman (forget his name) who stated that the PA voter ID law would "allow Romney to win Pennsylvania." Sometimes these guys screw up and tell the truth.
   2469. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4186146)
Except for that PA GOP congressman (forget his name) who stated that the PA voter ID law would "allow Romney to win Pennsylvania." Sometimes these guys screw up and tell the truth.


There was a GOP boss a few months ago in upstate New York when asked about an effort to keep College kids from registering who said, "and besides, they're young and foolish- they'l likely vote democratic, later on when they settle down, get jobs and are more responsible..."
   2470. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4186149)
but they shot themselves in the foot obssessing about immigration


And how - that gap in latino voting preferences is getting gargantuan - CAP (certainly a biased source, but still) has the gap moving to near 50 points. The saving grace right now is that Latino turnout tends to lag far behind most other demos excepting young voters, but eventually, that sheer number gets so big that even a low turnout portion of it becomes impossible to overcome. Fortunately for Mitt - that time is probably not 2012... but by any account, Mitt's numbers among Latinos are lagging behind McCain's (and far, far off of Bush's).

Does Mitt need a Sister Souljah moment? Can he afford a Sister Souljah moment?
   2471. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4186151)
When the National Review and a pile of Southern R politicians is saying you really have to release your tax returns, then you know it is getting ugly. HW you talk about R unity and cohesion (which is largely legit I admit), but they are breaking ranks on this one and it is killing Romney.

If every R was supporting him he might have a chance, but now it really hurts. Are they trying to sabotage Romney, help themselves somehow, accidentally saying what they believe or what?
   2472. zonk Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4186152)
There was a GOP boss a few months ago in upstate New York when asked about an effort to keep College kids from registering who said, "and besides, they're young and foolish- they'l likely vote democratic, later on when they settle down, get jobs and are more responsible..."


I forget where I read it, but I saw a rather convincing study some time back that puts this idea in the myth category -- that by and large, voting preferences tend to calcify more than they do swing as young voters get older.
   2473. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4186158)
Does Mitt need a Sister Souljah moment? Can he afford a Sister Souljah moment?

I'd say probably and probably not, respectively.
   2474. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4186159)
Does Mitt need a Sister Souljah moment? Can he afford a Sister Souljah moment?


On what though? I can't be taxes. It can't be abortion. The immegration ship has sailed I think. If not a topic then a person, but who? Rush, Palin, Beck and many others are all way too powerful and popular. You need to pick some random person and go after them.

Anyway I hope he does. That would be awesome to watch, and might be good for the soul of the GOP (not to get all concern troll on the bit).
   2475. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4186161)
Speaking of GOP party unity, I'm curious to see what if anything comes of the GOP's apparent failure to invite Palin to speak at the convention.
   2476. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4186163)
Rush, Palin, Beck and many others are all way too powerful and popular.

Right, which is why my answer in 2473 was "probably not."
   2477. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4186165)
note that just as with gay marriage the voter id effort was a coordinated, orchestrated nationwide effort done at approximatlely the same time with prewritten legislation and prepackaged talking points provided by the party to local state officials

this is pretty clear to anyone paying attention so i see no harm in stating the obvious


I'm aware of the concerted effort. This is, at the end of the day, why I will vote against the GOP for the foreseeable future. The Dems, as bad as they can be, organize to extend equal treatment with regards to civil marriage to a traditionally hated minority. The GOP organizes nationally to deny the vote to as many "wrong way voters" as possible, because they can't convince a majority of the wisdom of their policy positions.
   2478. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4186166)
I forget where I read it, but I saw a rather convincing study some time back that puts this idea in the myth category -- that by and large, voting preferences tend to calcify more than they do swing as young voters get older.


I read something about this also, but don't remember either. The GOP better hope it does not calcify or they are in a world of hurt by 2016 to 2020.

Maybe I will try to Google the study.
   2479. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4186177)
the republicans calling on romney to release the returns understand its better to go early than late. if romney does it now it's july, its slow, people are barely following. get it out there, take whatever hit exists and move on.

i know those folks were not thrilled when the gov hired two old cheney guys recently. vp cheney is all about telling people to go blank themselves which can be endearing but also not the best approach in some instances.
   2480. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4186197)
It does seem that the Romney team has internalized the "base won't break ranks" talking point and assume that they can get the vote on pure anti-Obama messaging. I don't think team Romney understands the base very well.
   2481. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4186201)
I forget where I read it, but I saw a rather convincing study some time back that puts this idea in the myth category -- that by and large, voting preferences tend to calcify more than they do swing as young voters get older.


I read something about this also, but don't remember either. The GOP better hope it does not calcify or they are in a world of hurt by 2016 to 2020.


The GOP was doing very well among young voters in the 1980s, I think the "fruits" of that is that those 20s somethings in the 80s ended up forming the active core of the party in the 00s and now.

The GOP either needs to have people change, or they need the historical trend for people to vote more often as they get older to abate.

Essentially in some ways the GOP is locking itself into a fight the future mode- the demographic groups that vote against them - they are no longer trying to persuade them to vote GOP- they are simply trying to suppress that vote- well they CAN work if you only need 2-3% t swing an election- but there is a limit in the US to what you can do - I'm sure they would LOVE to bring back poll taxes- but on the Federal Level there is a Constitutional amendment banning them- and on the State level there is a SCOTUS decision ruling that they run afoul of the 14th amendment- I'm sure Alito would have no problem overruling that precedent- but am quite bit less sure of any of the other including Scalia (ok I'm sure of the liberal 4).

Anyway, the current ideological alignment of the 2 parties is not carved in stone, mating libertarians, neo-cons and white bible thumpers together on one side against everyone else on the other side does not seem to me to be a stable configuration.

The Dems have become the pro-choice/pro gay rights party
The Repubs have become the pro-life/anti-gay party

The Dems have done so without losing culturally conservative blacks and hispanics? for 2 basic reasons- those groups see the Dems as being more aligned with their economic issues- and they see many white GOPers as being racist (I'm not getting to whether that is justified or not)

The Repubs OTOH have managed to keep many culturally liberal/fiscal conservatives within their fold- why? I'm not entirely sure to tell the truth...

The Repubs have also retained a great many social conservatives who are not fully in line with the end the New Deal/modern regulatory state part of the platform...

For now anyway the coalitions are holding- my guess is that when one breaks- the other party's coalition will also break- the two parties will re-sort- perhaps switch/trade a constituency or two- its happened before and will happen again.



   2482. Brian C Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4186209)
Rush, Palin, Beck and many others are all way too powerful and popular.

I think the "Sister Souljah moment" is a cliche and its value to Clinton way overstated, but that said, Romney would do himself nothing but good by going after those three. He'd get a lot of heat for it, but I doubt it would have any substantial effect on his chances for getting elected.

People confuse "loud" with "numerous" way too often. Rush, Palin and Beck all have very, very loud and devoted fanbases, but they're not big enough to swing national results (probably especially Palin and Beck). That was the whole logic of the "Sister Souljah moment" - that Clinton could withstand the heat because there's no actual fire behind it.

The fact of the matter is that Romney just got through a GOP primary pretty easily, but without any significant support from those three. If that doesn't speak to their weakness, I don't know what does. They're far from being "too powerful and popular" - they're just waiting to be kicked aside.
   2483. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4186212)
the republicans calling on romney to release the returns understand its better to go early than late. if romney does it now it's july, its slow, people are barely following. get it out there, take whatever hit exists and move on.


Romney and his people know better what's in there though...

With Obama it was more a matter of picking a time to release the long firm birth certificate- Birtherism wasn't exactly helping the GOP, so Obama and his people were deliberately drawing it out imho. Fixation on Romney's finances OTOH are not helping Romney- so dragging this out would not seem to be in his interest...
   2484. booond Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4186221)
If Romney is going to have a "Sister Souljah" moment he could've practiced on Sununu yesterday. He didn't. And rumors suggest that was a planned attack with more to follow. Look for Romney to have the idiots go full birther, muslim, drug addict on the president.

BTW, Romney's 2010 tax return wasn't the full return. He didn't disclose parts of the return dealing with Swiss bank accounts.
   2485. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4186223)
Birtherism wasn't exactly helping the GOP, so Obama and his people were deliberately drawing it out imho.


Which is what makes the rope-a-dope they're playing with that same element now so damned hilarious. Drudge is leading with the "scoop" that Joe Arpaio's "posse" has proof of Obama's alien nature...
   2486. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4186228)
The fact of the matter is that Romney just got through a GOP primary pretty easily, but without any significant support from those three. If that doesn't speak to their weakness, I don't know what does. They're far from being "too powerful and popular" - they're just waiting to be kicked aside.


There is a difference between no support from them, and actively going against them. Remember Sister Souljah was a bit player, no where near as powerful as those mentioned.

In terms of raw votes I agree, but remember the independents (low information) voters often vote based on water cooler stuff. An all out war between Palin and Mitt could easily fuel a MSM meme of internal strife, panic and so on and make Mitt look terrible to those only sort of paying attention. The whole point of a Sister Souljah is to appeal to the moderate center.

But yes the whole thing is in fact way overstated in impact.
   2487. Eddo Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4186242)
I think the "Sister Souljah moment" is a cliche and its value to Clinton way overstated, but that said, Romney would do himself nothing but good by going after those three. He'd get a lot of heat for it, but I doubt it would have any substantial effect on his chances for getting elected.

People confuse "loud" with "numerous" way too often. Rush, Palin and Beck all have very, very loud and devoted fanbases, but they're not big enough to swing national results (probably especially Palin and Beck). That was the whole logic of the "Sister Souljah moment" - that Clinton could withstand the heat because there's no actual fire behind it.

Also, because the Rush, Palin, and Beck fanbases are also certain to not vote Obama.

The gains Romney would pick up in swing voters is probably enough to offset the wingnuts that would stay home on election day.
   2488. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4186250)
Are they trying to sabotage Romney


no, this is not about unity or breaking ranks- they sincerely believe that he is making a significant tactical mistake- and that not telling him so would be a bigger tactical mistake
   2489. Brian C Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4186263)
An all out war between Palin and Mitt could easily fuel a MSM meme of internal strife, panic and so on and make Mitt look terrible to those only sort of paying attention.

The MSM hates Romney already. But they really hate Sarah Palin. If Romney's too scared of Limbaugh and Beck, at least Palin is still an easy target.
   2490. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4186269)
The fact of the matter is that Romney just got through a GOP primary pretty easily, but without any significant support from those three. If that doesn't speak to their weakness, I don't know what does. They're far from being "too powerful and popular" - they're just waiting to be kicked aside.


If he was going to go after one, it'd have to be his fellow Mormon- Beck-

1: He's the crazier one with the crazier fanbase
2: His following is not as large as Rush's
3: The Mormon angle...


   2491. Craig in MN Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4186274)

The MSM hates Romney already. But they really hate Sarah Palin. If Romney's too scared of Limbaugh and Beck, at least Palin is still an easy target.


More likely Donald Trump. Since he's pure media creation with no political history, you can criticize him at will without loosing his followers. Of course Trump is too dumb to stop talking and the media is too dumb to stop putting a microphone in his face, so it would drag on and on.
   2492. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4186279)
More likely Donald Trump. Since he's pure media creation with no political history, you can criticize him at will without loosing his followers. Of course Trump is too dumb to stop talking and the media is too dumb to stop putting a microphone in his face, so it would drag on and on.


And the FL GOP is giving him a "statesman" aware 3 days ahead of the GOP Convention in Tampa...
   2493. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4186280)
Of course Trump is too dumb to stop talking and the media is too dumb to stop putting a microphone in his face, so it would drag on and on.


Yep, deliberately getting into a mudwrestling match with that pig is dumb for the obvious reason- the pig enjoys it.
   2494. Tripon Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4186283)
If there's a person to get after, its Apirio in Ariz. That guy is just begging to get smashed.
   2495. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4186291)
I haven't had much cause in recent years to speak well of John McCain, but what he said today on the Senate floor in response to Michele Bachmann's pandering, paranoid, deranged contention that "there are individuals who are associated with the Muslim Brotherhood who have positions, very sensitive positions, in our Department of Justice, our Department of Homeland Security, potentially even in the National Intelligence Agency" and that Huma Abedin, an aide to Hillary Clinton was specifically suspect because of a ridiculously tenuous* connection (through her deceased father) to the Muslim Brotherhood, absolutely deserves to be posted in full:

“Mr. President: Rarely do I come to the floor of this institution to discuss particular individuals. But I understand how painful and injurious it is when a person’s character, reputation, and patriotism are attacked without concern for fact or fairness. It is for that reason that I rise today to speak in defense of Huma Abedin.

“Over the past decade, I have had the pleasure of coming to know Huma during her long and dedicated service to Hillary Rodham Clinton, both in the United States Senate and now in the Department of State. I know Huma to be an intelligent, upstanding, hard-working, and loyal servant of our country and our government, who has devoted countless days of her life to advancing the ideals of the nation she loves and looking after its most precious interests. That she has done so while maintaining her characteristic decency, warmth, and good humor is a testament to her ability to bear even the most arduous duties with poise and confidence.

“Put simply, Huma represents what is best about America: the daughter of immigrants, who has risen to the highest levels of our government on the basis of her substantial personal merit and her abiding commitment to the American ideals that she embodies so fully. I am proud to know Huma, and to call her my friend.

“Recently, it has been alleged that Huma, a Muslim American, is part of a nefarious conspiracy to harm the United States by unduly influencing U.S. foreign policy at the Department of State in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist causes. On June 13, five members of Congress wrote to the Deputy Inspector General of the Department of State, demanding that he begin an investigation into the possibility that Huma and other American officials are using their influence to promote the cause of the Muslim Brotherhood within the U.S. government. The information offered to support these serious allegations is based on a report, ‘The Muslim Brotherhood in America,’ produced by the Center for Security Policy.

“To say that the accusations made in both documents are not substantiated by the evidence they offer is to be overly polite and diplomatic about it. It is far better, and more accurate, to talk straight: These allegations about Huma, and the report from which they are drawn, are nothing less than an unwarranted and unfounded attack on an honorable citizen, a dedicated American, and a loyal public servant.

“The letter alleges that three members of Huma’s family are ‘connected to Muslim Brotherhood operatives and/or organizations.’ Never mind that one of those individuals, Huma’s father, passed away two decades ago. The letter and the report offer not one instance of an action, a decision, or a public position that Huma has taken while at the State Department that would lend credence to the charge that she is promoting anti-American activities within our government. Nor does either document offer any evidence of a direct impact that Huma may have had on one of the U.S. policies with which the authors of the letter and the producers of the report find fault. These sinister accusations rest solely on a few unspecified and unsubstantiated associations of members of Huma’s family, none of which have been shown to harm or threaten the United States in any way. These attacks on Huma have no logic, no basis, and no merit. And they need to stop now.

“Ultimately, what is at stake in this matter is larger even than the reputation of one person. This is about who we are as a nation, and who we aspire to be. What makes America exceptional among the countries of the world is that we are bound together as citizens not by blood or class, not by sect or ethnicity, but by a set of enduring, universal, and equal rights that are the foundation of our constitution, our laws, our citizenry, and our identity. When anyone, not least a member of Congress, launches specious and degrading attacks against fellow Americans on the basis of nothing more than fear of who they are and ignorance of what they stand for, it defames the spirit of our nation, and we all grow poorer because of it.

“Our reputations, our character, are the only things we leave behind when we depart this earth, and unjust attacks that malign the good name of a decent and honorable person is not only wrong; it is contrary to everything we hold dear as Americans.

“Some years ago, I had the pleasure, along with my friend, the Senator from South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham, of traveling overseas with our colleague, then-Senator Hillary Clinton. By her side, as always, was Huma, and I had the pleasure of seeing firsthand her hard work and dedicated service on behalf of the former Senator from New York – a service that continues to this day at the Department of State, and bears with it significant personal sacrifice for Huma.

“I have every confidence in Huma’s loyalty to our country, and everyone else should as well. All Americans owe Huma a debt of gratitude for her many years of superior public service. I hope these ugly and unfortunate attacks on her can be immediately brought to an end and put behind us before any further damage is done to a woman, an American, of genuine patriotism and love of country.”


Beautifully and forcefully said, you irascible bastard.

* As Alex Seitz-Wald wrote in Salon, "So, to connect Abedin to the Muslim Brotherhood, you have to go through her dead father, to the organization he founded, to a man who allegedly supported it, to the organization that man used to lead, to Europe in the 1970s and 1990s, and finally to the Brotherhood."
   2496. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4186297)
If Romney is going to have a "Sister Souljah" moment he could've practiced on Sununu yesterday. He didn't. And rumors suggest that was a planned attack with more to follow. Look for Romney to have the idiots go full birther, muslim, drug addict on the president.
You'll note it's called a "Sister Souljah" moment and not a "Jesse Jackson" moment, even though it was Jackson's Rainbow Coalition that Clinton was trying to distance himself from through his attack on Sister Souljah. (There's also no evidence that Clinton's criticism of an obscure artist moved any votes anywhere.)

If Romney were to attack someone to reposition himself, it'd be at most a right-wing blogger. Maybe a deputy of Sheriff Joe.

But he won't, because it doesn't actually matter. If Romney were to actually reverse himself on immigration, that could move some votes (now and in the future), but maintaining the same actual positions while offering a symbolic attack on a no one isn't going to make a difference.
   2497. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4186318)
* As Alex Seitz-Wald wrote in Salon, "So, to connect Abedin to the Muslim Brotherhood, you have to go through her dead father, to the organization he founded, to a man who allegedly supported it, to the organization that man used to lead, to Europe in the 1970s and 1990s, and finally to the Brotherhood."


How many connections do you need to connect her with Kevin Bacon?
   2498. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4186328)
How many connections do you need to connect her with Kevin Bacon?


She is actually the White Queen.
   2499. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: July 18, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4186329)
How many connections do you need to connect her with Kevin Bacon?


That's the odd part, she IS Kevin Bacon!
   2500. Gern Blanston Posted: July 18, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4186339)
That's the odd part, she IS Kevin Bacon!

An undercover Muslim double agent named Bacon. Fiendishly brilliant.
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