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Friday, September 03, 2010

O’Brien: Braves have 93.6 percent chance of making playoffs?

Leaving the Mets with less than a seven-per-cent solution for their great hiatus.

The Braves hold a slim two-game lead over Philly, so I’m sort of surprised to see the Braves with a 73.6-percent chance of winning the division to the two-time NL pennant-winning Phillies’ 23.1 percent chance. Then again, these computer-generated things don’t take into account past performance and “intangibles.”

Or wait, maybe they do, and they’ve worked the Eric Hinske World Series factor into the equation. Hinske, for any who might have forgotten, has played in the past three World Series for three different team. Dude is a serious good-luck charm, as well as being a team leader and a big reason why the Braves’ vaunted clubhouse chemistry is so, well, vaunted this year.

But seriously, no, the coolstandings.com site doesn’t factor in that stuff. They run simulations of the season, use remaining strength of schedule, remaining home-road breakdown, that kind of thing. They do not, however, factor in injuries or trades. So I don’t know, but I’d imagine if they did that would only help the Braves, right? Then again, the Phillies got Roy Oswalt, so who knows?

Anyway, there it is, Braves with a 73.6 percent chance of winning the division and 93.6 percent chance of making the postseason as either division winner or wild card.

Repoz Posted: September 03, 2010 at 08:36 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: braves, projections, sabermetrics

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1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 03, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3633227)

I know that this might sound bitter from a Met fan but I actually don't think the playoff odds formula is very good at what it does.

2. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3633230)

So, what's Mike Moriarty doing these days?

3. AROM Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:09 PM (#3633241)

The 93 seems a bit high, but for all I know might be right. As for the division, the Braves have the lead, though a slim one, so they have to be over 50% right now. How much over is hard to estimate in your head, my guess would have been between 60-65%.

4. tocom Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3633253)

It is a combination of chance to win division or to get the wild card. According to the standings I'm reviewing its says about 76% to wind the division and 17% to get the wild card, for a total of 93%. My understanding is that those odds are also based on the difficulty of the remaining schedule (which I haven't looked at) so that may also be a contributing factor.

5. spike Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3633256)

93 is inclusive of their wild card chances.

6. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:31 PM (#3633267)

The good news here is that they still have a chance to miss the playoffs, right?

7. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 03, 2010 at 09:55 PM (#3633275)

As for the division, the Braves have the lead, though a slim one, so they have to be over 50% right now. How much over is hard to estimate in your head, my guess would have been between 60-65%.

Well, look at it this way. Assume a 2 team division, both teams evenly matched. At the start of the season, with 162 games to play, the odds for either would be 50%, right? Now, with only 28 games left, one of them has a 2 game lead. Their odds have to be a heck of a lot higher than 50%, no?

Or look at it this way. If the Braves play out the string at their current win%, they will win 94 games. For the Phillies to win 95 games, they would have to win at a .678 win%. What are the odds of a .567 team winning 68% of their next 28 games?

8. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: September 03, 2010 at 10:12 PM (#3633282)

I know that this might sound bitter from a Met fan but I actually don't think the playoff odds formula is very good at what it does.

I agree with this. It seems to me that the odds swing a bit more forcefully over the course of the year than they should. I'd be curious to see how accurate they have been over the years.

9. Greg Goosen at 30 Posted: September 03, 2010 at 10:48 PM (#3633300)

Three years ago today the mets had the best record in the NL, five game lead in the NL East. San Diego was second and the lucky Arizona was third.

10. Andrew Edwards Posted: September 04, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3633360)

There should be enough data now for someone to audit the accuracy of playoff odds reports - i.e. take each day's estimated odds as an observation and see how they play out (e.g. of all the times a team was given a 70% chance of making the playoffs, 70% of those observations should yield a playoff spot).

Could be interesting not only to test for accuracy but also to put some parameters around its errors - would be interesting if, for example, certain types of teams or certain types of playoff races yielded unusually low hit rates.

11. Karl from NY Posted: September 04, 2010 at 04:20 AM (#3633410)

I agree with this. It seems to me that the odds swing a bit more forcefully over the course of the year than they should. I'd be curious to see how accurate they have been over the years.

Perception bias. We only notice the odds when they do swing. NYY and TB have 99% chances and will sail in without any fuss. There are 99 of those types of situations for every 2007 Mets. We only notice the outlier. We don't notice the races that aren't newsworthy.

That said, it wouldn't be surprising if September games are a bit more swingy than formulas would predict. The formulas don't know when an also-ran will give up and just start playing September callup kids, or when a pennant leader might lose key players to injury. But I'd bet this effect is small, maybe two wins over a month.

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Friday, September 03, 2010

O’Brien: Braves have 93.6 percent chance of making playoffs?

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