Isn't Octavio Dotel Example No. 1 of an otherwise great relief pitcher who for some reason can't handle ninth-inning save situations? LaTroy Hawkins is another that comes to mind.

I know the sabermetric conventional wisdom is that there's no such thing as magical closer dust and "anyone who can handle the 7th can handle the 9th," and I agree with that about 98%. But Dotel over his career seems to be a case where the mainstream thinking was right.

Isn't Octavio Dotel Example No. 1 of an otherwise great relief pitcher who for some reason can't handle ninth-inning save situations?

I would guess he can't handle it because he has extreme splits and needs to be deployed almost entirely against righties. If you're putting him in the ninth, instead of picking his spot by batters, he's going to fail.

According to bb-ref, Dotel's numbers seem fine in save situations, if not a little better than non-save situations.

I do know the one year I tried to use him as a closer in Strat-O-Matic, he continue to get lit up and ended up with a 5 ERA.

Mario and Rod were just flabbergasted by Dotel's utter lack of command last night. He's looked so good in his other outings this season, yet placed in the official save role last night, he looked like 2012 Carlos Marmol. Just awful. He was so off that it was pretty obvious the Tigers were losing the game as soon as Dotel walked Ichiro. Leyland may take some heat for not pulling him after that, but the whole thing derailed so quickly that I doubt the pair of relievers warming in the pen were ready.

It was interesting watch Ron Gant and Mitch Williams kinda go at Brian Kenny as this unfolded on MLB Tonight, since Kenny has been so vocal about believing that a good reliever is a good reliever, whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th. I tend to side with him, but Dotel is one of those few guys of recent vintage who's shown he's a shaky closer, but effective in the 7th or 8th.

Also, I can't believe that for as many wide ones as Dotel threw in that inning, he threw one right down main street to Montero in that 3-2 count. Montero, a guy who never walks, would have almost definitely been swinging at anything in that situation (full count, tying run on base).

Isn't the real story here that Leyland pulled Fister after 73 pitches over 7 innings? Fister looked like he easily could've completed this game, and Leyland pulled him early with a 2 run lead on a day where his 2 best relievers were unavailable. I know this was Fister's first start back from the DL, but I believe he threw 75 pitches in his last rehab outing, so he should've been good to throw at least 90 today, if not 100.

Kvetching about Dotel's performance seems to be burying the lede.

According to bb-ref, Dotel's numbers seem fine in save situations, if not a little better than non-save situations.

I looked at that, too, but I assume that "save situations" could occur in any inning, as long as the team has a lead of 3 runs or less. You can enter the game in a save situation and leave with a "hold." So this includes all of Dotel's fine setup work. Otherwise, he would have been in 292 save situations which led to only 108 saves, which would obviously be an abysmal percentage.

He's pitched a lot better in the 8th inning than in the 9th, but he's pitched better in the 9th than in the 7th.

Maybe someone who's a whiz at Play-Index can figure out Dotel's performance in 9th-inning save situations only.

I looked at that, too, but I assume that "save situations" could occur in any inning, as long as the team has a lead of 3 runs or less. You can enter the game in a save situation and leave with a "hold." So this includes all of Dotel's fine setup work. Otherwise, he would have been in 292 save situations which led to only 108 saves, which would obviously be an abysmal percentage.

Nice catch, didn't notice that.

Speaking of blowing it in the ninth, did anyone see Papelbon's lovely performance last night?

That must have been the ultimate Mariners rally last night:

Walk
Walk
Wild pitch
Passed ball
Double off the centerfield wall
Sacrifice bunt
Sacrifice fly

On one hand, it's pathetic. On the other hand, it's three runs...

Bullpen has been pathetic in close games. Would also be nice if the Tigers could actually score runs with runners in scoring positions. Hopefully this is just a string of crap luck and not a season-long thing. Good news is that this is the AL Central...

Fister I assume had to be on a strict pitch count for his first start back. D

Maybe someone who's a whiz at Play-Index can figure out Dotel's performance in 9th-inning save situations only.

I'm far from a whiz, but my back of the napkin calculations put Dotel's ERA at 5.01 for his career when entering a game in the 9th inning in a save situation.

I've got him with 111 such opportunities. He's thrown 102.1 IP and given up 57 earned runs.

I've got him with 111 such opportunities. He's thrown 102.1 IP and given up 57 earned runs.

That can't be right. The article says he has 108 saves. There's no way he has 108 saves in 111 chances (better than 97% conversion rate) with a 5.01 ERA in those situations. Obviously some of those saves could be of the multi-inning type, but still, he can't be that bad in the ninth.

EDIT: To add, I can't figure out how to come up with the answer. The closest I can get is that in the ninth inning, with his team in a save situation (i.e., up by 1-3 runs) batters have hit .228/.314/.448 off Dotel, which is higher than his career .216/.306/.383 line, although how meaningful (the sample is 475 ABs) I have no idea.

I looked at that, too, but I assume that "save situations" could occur in any inning, as long as the team has a lead of 3 runs or less.

More than that, a save situation occurs in any inning 1-6 and in the 7th with no outs with any size lead. You get a save if you held a lead of 3 runs or less OR if you pitched at least 3 innings, with any size lead. That's how a save was collected in the 30-3 Rangers-Orioles game a few years ago.

It's silly, but the save rule can't "look ahead" and know that your 7th inning guy isn't going to complete the game, so his appearance has to be considered a save opportunity.

Bullpen has been pathetic in close games. Would also be nice if the Tigers could actually score runs with runners in scoring positions. Hopefully this is just a string of crap luck and not a season-long thing. Good news is that this is the AL Central...

Yeah, the pen has been a surprising weak spot so far, but it's taking away attention from the fact that the Tigers are still scoring a lot fewer runs than a lot of people expected them.

There's no way he has 108 saves in 111 chances (better than 97% conversion rate) with a 5.01 ERA in those situations.

He has had 154 save opportunities in his career. Only 111 of them had him entering the game in the ninth, and he converted 87 of them. He's had 21 saves that had him entering the game in a different inning.

edit: FWIW, I get a 4.96 RA and a 4.51 ERA for Dotel in 9th inning save situations.

another edit: And an RA of 4.01 and an ERA of 3.65 in all other situations, including save situations not of the 9th inning variety.

More than that, a save situation occurs in any inning 1-6 and in the 7th with no outs with any size lead.

I suppose that's possible (though highly unlikely) if you're pitcher No. 3 or more. But if you relieve a starting pitcher in innings 1-5 with the lead, it isn't a save situation.

But if you relieve a starting pitcher in innings 1-5 with the lead, it isn't a save situation.

By the save rule, it is. The only reason otherwise is because you'd get the win instead which takes precedence over the save. Is this situation deducted from save opportunities? (Not that it ever happens in MLB, no relief pitcher goes innings 5-9.)

By the save rule, it is. The only reason otherwise is because you'd get the win instead which takes precedence over the save.

But you can't possibly get a save in that situation. You can only get a win. It's ridiculous to consider something a save situation when recording a save is impossible.

The Dotel-can't-close thing is ######## and always has been. He was pitching through an elbow injury in 2004 and 2005, and his subsequent stints as a closer have been at his diminished, post-surgery level, so it's not really any surprise that his numbers in save situations are worse than his non-save numbers -- the non-save numbers are dominated by what are by far the best innings he was ever going to pitch, and the save numbers have come almost exclusively* past his peak.


* During his three seasons as a dominant setup man for Billy Wagner, he had seven legitimate** save opportunities in which he was, surprise, dominant: 7.2 innings, one run, 12 strikeouts, two walks, a double and a homer (.083/.154/.250). All converted.

** Excluding games where he entered in the 8th and the offense extended the lead so that Wagner was no longer in line for a save, and a game where Wagner had already pitched and Oswalt was in line for an extra-inning save but needed to be relieved. Including one intended-from-the-outset two-inning save, and one game where Saarloos needed to be relieved up 9-5 with two men on and one out -- Dotel gave up a homer and a walk, so I made a point of including it.

More than that, a save situation occurs in any inning 1-6 and in the 7th with no outs with any size lead. You get a save if you held a lead of 3 runs or less OR if you pitched at least 3 innings, with any size lead. That's how a save was collected in the 30-3 Rangers-Orioles game a few years ago.

You're technically right about this, with the caveat SoSH U noted, but we're talking about "Save Situations" as used by Baseball Reference's splits pages. I can't find a glossary that explains how they define "in Sv Situ," but I would be surprised if it included innings 1-5. Does anyone know how Sean determines this?

But you can't possibly get a save in that situation. You can only get a win. It's ridiculous to consider something a save situation when recording a save is impossible.

There could be a rainout, ending the game after the seventh inning.

Bam! Now that's nitpicking!

There could be a rainout, ending the game after the seventh inning.

Bam! Now that's nitpicking!

Good nitpick, though it's only true if he came in during the fifth inning. If the game ends in 7, the reliever would get the win.

Close enough!