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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Okay, Now the 2017 Mariners Are Interesting | FanGraphs Baseball

I agree.

Steamer has Smyly projected for +2.5 WAR in 164 innings, while ZIPS came in at +2.0 in 143 innings, so both projections have Smyly as a quality pitcher when he’s on the mound. There are definitely durability concerns, given that he missed most of 2015 with shoulder problems and chose to rehab rather than have surgery, but a healthy Drew Smyly is a pretty good starting pitcher. And he’s replacing close-to-replacement-level arms, bumping Ariel Miranda or Chris Heston from the rotation, and hopefully reducing the team’s need to count on Yovani Gallardo, whose starts can now be skipped when off-days allow it. Swapping in Smyly for the team’s back-end arms is probably something close to a two-win upgrade.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:18 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:23 PM (#5382105)
Sure, they're interesting but how interesting? I'm guessing that they are about the 6th most interesting team.
   2. bookbook Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:44 PM (#5382108)
I'm not convinced playoff contenders are inherently more interesting than other teams. For instance, I expect the Cubs to be phenomenally boring in 2017.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:55 PM (#5382112)
For instance, I expect the Cubs to be phenomenally boring in 2017.


I agree that good does not necessarily equal interesting. But this seems like a tremendous exaggeration. The Cubs have all sorts of interesting players, and all things being equal good players are indeed more interesting than bad players. Everyone would rather watch Kris Bryant than Trevor Plouffe.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2017 at 11:39 PM (#5382118)
Even Mrs. Plouffe!

I'm not sure Smyly has the capability to move any team from "not quite interesting" to "interesting." I understand he might move their projected wins from 85 to 87 or whatever but there's so much variability in projected team performance and projected individual performance that we don't really have that much more faith in an 87 win team vs. an 85 win one nor do we have that much confidence that Smyly will deliver those two wins anyway.

That said, it looks like they shifted some middling prospects for 2 years of Smyly plus whatever Shae Simmons has left under team control which sounds like a pretty good trade.
   5. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 11, 2017 at 11:50 PM (#5382123)
I'm not convinced playoff contenders are inherently more interesting than other teams.


For instance, the Cardinals have been both playoff contenders and phenomenally boring ever since McGwire retired.
   6. Cargo Cultist Posted: January 12, 2017 at 02:56 AM (#5382135)
So the Mariners added yet another bad pitcher to their awful rotation to be their #4 or #5 starter, and people think this is supposed to be interesting?
   7. eddieot Posted: January 12, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5382507)
I'll defend Smyly, he's better than Gallardo. But so was Karns.
   8. Voodoo Posted: January 12, 2017 at 09:01 PM (#5382732)
I feel like Kyle Schwarber's 2017 is about as interesting a story as any I've ever anticipated from a single player, but I'm biased.

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