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Monday, November 29, 2010

Omar Minaya would have pursued Derek Jeter

When Omar Minaya became Mets GM after the 2004 season, his first major move was signing a future Hall of Famer one year removed from a great season. The superstar was available because his team thought his best years were behind him and they did not want to give him a contract based on past glory. But Minaya felt that Pedro Martinez would bring the mediocre Mets instant respectability. And he was right.

After the 2007 season, Jorge Posada’s contract was up. The Mets needed a catcher and Minaya reportedly targeted Posada, who stayed with the Yankees but may have gotten a four-year deal instead of three thanks to his testing the market.

So if Minaya were still running the Mets, you can bet he’d want free agent Derek Jeter.

What if the Mets were willing and able to spend tens of millions of dollars this offseason, as they did in five of Minaya’s six years as GM? What if they decided to trade Jose Reyes for much-needed starting pitching?

What if Jeter were willing to leave the Yankees - and what if he were willing to come to the Mets? And what if he were willing to sign for something along the lines of the Yankees’ reported three years, $45 million?

Tripon Posted: November 29, 2010 at 01:57 AM | 119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, yankees

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   101. CrosbyBird Posted: December 03, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3702016)
At 19 he hit .289/.351/.381 against a league average of .258/.332/.385 - that is not "a marginal offensive performance for the weakest offensive position"

Two points:

1) You can't just compare slash lines. Binghamton is a very good hitting park relative to the rest of the Eastern League. I think it inflates offense by about 5%.

2) The average player in AA isn't going to sniff the majors. Being league-average in AA is not a good sign. In 2008, Fernando Martinez put up a .287/.340/.432 line at Binghamton. His MLE was .222/.278/.328.

I think it might have been too kind to Tejada to call his age 19 season "marginal offensive performance." Look at players who ended up being merely average ML SS offensively, like David Eckstein, and what they did in AA. It would be an overwhelming success if Ruben Tejada had David Eckstein's career.

Tejada is young enough that he might develop into a mediocre prospect, but right now, he looks like a poor man's Anderson Hernandez. I hope that I'm wrong, but I simply don't put a lot of stock in league-average performance at the low/mid minors even if you're very young. If he put up an .800 OPS, then we're talking about a different class of player.
   102. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 03, 2010 at 11:30 PM (#3702040)
It would be an overwhelming success if Ruben Tejada had David Eckstein's career.

That's probably true of most non-blue chip prospects. I'd take that from Havens, for example.
   103. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 04, 2010 at 12:01 AM (#3702053)
like David Eckstein, and what they did in AA.


at age 24

but right now, he looks like a poor man's Anderson Hernandez.

who hit .274/.326/.376 in AA at age 21- and League that year was .263/.335/.410

no he does not look like a "poor man's" Anderson Hernandez through this point in his career

but let's play
Look at players who ended up being merely average ML SS offensively,

ok 2001-2010, 600+PAs, OPS+ between 85 & 95
JJ Hardy- hit .273/.309/.375 between A and AA at age 19, did hit .279/.368/.428 at age 20 in AA
Alexi Ramirez, (no stats available)
Ian Desmond, hit .250/.306/.355 at 19 in A ball, .228/.289/.346 at age 20, A/AA
Khalil Greene, College boy,
Felipe Lopes, at 19 hit .277/.351/.421 in the Sallie League, followed by .257/.303/.371 in AA at age 20
Scutaro, hit .251/.334/.403 in Sallie League at 20
Pennington, hit .276/.364/.359 in Midwest league at 21
Juan Uribe, hit .267/.307/.409 in Sallie League at 19, .256/.314/.410 in Carolina League at 20

The problem here is one of AGE, not many players are FT regulars in AA at age 19. Contrary to what you think, being league average at age 19 in AA is IMPRESSIVE, doubly so for a SS
The problem scouts have with Tejada are not so much with his performance top date, it's that they see no projection- he has no power, and they don't see him developing any.

Just for kicks, Robbie Cano, age 19 Sallie League: 276/.321/.445, age 20 FSL/AA: .277/.322/.374

Being league average in the FSL at age 19 is a good sign, and no being league average in AA at age 19 (Fmart, Tejada...) doesn't guarantee anything, but saying so and so isn't a prospect because he only hit league average in AA (At 19) is just wrong.
   104. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 04, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3702061)
That's probably true of most non-blue chip prospects. I'd take that from Havens, for example.


Havens could be capable of hitting .280/.375/.500 in the MLB and I'd still doubt he'd get half of Ecks' PAs... The ability to stay healthy is, for lack of a better term, a skill- and he doesn't have it.

WRT Tejada, I saw him play, and obviously he's so overmatched as a hitter NOW that he doesn't belong in the MLB NOW, but I also saw a guy who is gonna have a career if he can post a 90 OPS+ (not talking star here), given the entirety of his career, low A, FSL, AA, AAA and majors, I think he is reasonable bet to be able to reach that 90- and that means he's prospect.
   105. CrosbyBird Posted: December 04, 2010 at 01:25 AM (#3702119)
The problem scouts have with Tejada are not so much with his performance top date, it's that they see no projection- he has no power, and they don't see him developing any.

Fair enough. Tejada doesn't have anything remarkable about him other than being young. That's just not a good sign of big things to come... he'd have to develop skills that he hasn't already demonstrated: plate discipline, power, excellent rather than merely solid defense, or speed. There's nothing in the numbers to suggest that he'll do any of that.

Just for kicks, Robbie Cano, age 19 Sallie League: 276/.321/.445, age 20 FSL/AA: .277/.322/.374

Prospects go up and down in value as they progress through the minors. Cano had very impressive power for a MI prospect in his age 19 season, and then he took a step back at age 20, but he had already demonstrated plus power, particularly for his position. Cano is also a very good fielder now... I'm not sure if he demonstrated that ability in the minors.

Being league average in the FSL at age 19 is a good sign, and no being league average in AA at age 19 (Fmart, Tejada...) doesn't guarantee anything, but saying so and so isn't a prospect because he only hit league average in AA (At 19) is just wrong.

I think saying someone isn't a prospect because he did nothing but put up an average offensive line in a good offensive park at age 19 is very reasonable. It's just not enough to get excited about.

If you want to call Tejada a C-level prospect, someone that projects to being a backup infielder, with a very small chance of developing into a capable starter three or four years from now, I'll agree with you.

At this stage in his career, we have no reason to expect that he'll do anything special. If he takes a step forward (and I hope he does... I would love to be wrong) then I'll start taking him seriously, but for now, he's just another marginal guy in the system. The Mets quickly advance their prospects in the minors, and it's burned them with pretty much everyone since Reyes.

It's fair to say that we don't know what Tejada will be yet, because he's so young, but I have very little faith in him based on current performance and less in the organization that's developing him.
   106. Something Other Posted: December 04, 2010 at 09:22 AM (#3702288)
I for one am utterly convinced that Ruben Tejada's brilliant 11 day streak, from September 4th through September 14th, represents a new level, a new true talent plateau if you will. That he couldn't pull off even a 699 OPS for the rest of the season is as meaningless as the 488 OPS he rang up through September 3rd. Hell, if eight games can't convince you people, what on earth will?
   107. Lassus Posted: December 04, 2010 at 02:48 PM (#3702316)
Well, there's a shock.
   108. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 04, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3702699)
107 is a garbage post.
   109. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 04, 2010 at 10:20 PM (#3702771)
Apparently the deal between Rod Barajas and the Dodgers is for 3.25 million dollars!!!!!!! WTFstick?????
   110. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 04, 2010 at 11:11 PM (#3702823)
Barajas put up a 97 OPS+ last season. It's slugging heavy and he's not that good but he's not a horrible stopgap either. It's only a slight overpay.
   111. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 04, 2010 at 11:23 PM (#3702836)
Slugging heavy? He's had an OBP < .300 4 out of the last 5 years and turns 36 during the season. The 97 OPS+ matches his career high. He has averaged an 82. Last offseason he was one of the last scraps on the table and signed for the league minimum.
   112. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 04, 2010 at 11:31 PM (#3702843)
Catchers hit something like .250/.320/.380 last season. Barajas pretty much made up for the lack of OBP with his slugging so last year he was a perfectly average regular and that would be worth around 4-6 million on the free agent market. He's not that good but he has averaged 16 homers a season the last three years. He has significant power for a catcher and he's definitely worth at least 2 million in my eyes. Catchers really suck at hitting in general.
   113. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 04, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3702852)
I guess I'm spoiled by The Living Legend, Josh Thole.
   114. Raskolnikov Posted: December 05, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3702873)
Wilmer Flores is killing the VWL. Maybe 2 years away from the majors?
   115. Lassus Posted: December 06, 2010 at 10:53 PM (#3704303)
As long as this is a catch-all Mets thread at this point, how about some Twitters?

Stark:
Official of team that talked to #Mets reports "Told us they'll talk about anyone, even David Wright. Reyes, Beltran - they're all out there"

Rosenthal:
One name to keep in mind as #Mets look for IF help: Jerry Hairston Jr.
   116. Something Other Posted: December 07, 2010 at 09:10 AM (#3704646)
107 is a garbage post.
Well aren't you just the potty mouth.

Is it really such a strain for you to post an intelligent comment, or have we arrived at the point where simple facts send you wailing for your momma?
   117. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 07, 2010 at 10:52 AM (#3704656)
Is it really such a strain for you to post an intelligent comment, or have we arrived at the point where simple facts send you wailing for your momma?

I really dislike the way your post implies that those who think that Tejada made some improvement as the season progressed are lacking an understanding of what a small sample is. You're not the only one here who has taken a stats course or read fangraphs around here.

More importantly, you really had to manipulate the numbers to make your point. Tejada did in fact have a good stretch from the 4th to the 14th and yes he did have a .696 OPS from that point on. But if I wanted to play around with endpoints, I'd say that Tejada posted a .263/.364/.368 batting line from September 16th to the end of the season, arguing that it's not fair to start an evaluation of hitting on a game that has to be a poor one statistically because it was the end of the hot streak. A .732 OPS is a 100 OPS+, pretty much exactly what Thole posted last season. Even the .696 OPS you cite wouldn't be terrible from a a good defensive 2b making the minimum.

But I wouldn't bother doing so, because splitting up a month's worth of AB into three parts isn't particularly useful other than showing people I can use B-R.

Tejada was atrocious for two months but hit well for the last month of the season. He's still young. There is some reason to think he can to develop into a quality player and it's not unreasonable to think that way about him. It's also reasonable to think otherwise. Most of the people around here manage to discuss the merits of such stances and have a good time doing so.

I will now go run to my momma, crying.
   118. Lassus Posted: December 07, 2010 at 11:08 AM (#3704657)
Is it really such a strain for you to post an intelligent comment

Not as much of a strain as it is for you not to be a snide and pompous dick, apparently. Or read any of what Russlan has posted in the past three years.
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