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Friday, April 18, 2014

OMNICHATTER FOR APRIL 18, 2014

The OMNICHATTER has never walked 8 batters in an inning….

Gamingboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 12:08 AM | 156 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   101. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:14 PM (#4688919)
Another, perhaps compelling, reason why a non-challenge system cannot work in baseball is to imagine how it would play out in real time. Imagine that there is a fairly close play at home plate but the umpire gets it wrong and calls runner out. After a short time, the home plate umpire calls time, gives some special review signal, and declares the runner safe. It does not make any sense on many levels.


Not sure why it doesn't make sense.
1. Play happens, close play.
2. in the 20-30 seconds it takes for the next batter or whatever to happen, the replay booth would have seen at least 3 replays of that play and decided if it needs to be overturned or more study.
3. replay booth signals ump a replay is happening.

Again...not that complicated.

I don't see how this is worse than a challenge system which goes.

1. play happens, close play.
2. in the 20-30 seconds it takes the batter or whatever to happen, the team wanting a review, tries to get their own review...
3. In order to get more time, the team sends it's manager out to chat with the ump.
4. the team gets a heads up, that a review needs to be done.
5. the umps then go and call the replay booth.
6. the replay booth replays the call
7. the replay booth tells the result....


Yes, a challenge system is much better than a common sense approach....
   102. Dan Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:14 PM (#4688920)
Couldn't the Red Sox have switched their first baseman and right fielder and improved the defense of both positions?


Carp in Fenway's RF would be beyond a disaster. He is about as much of an outfielder as Jeremy Giambi was. And Nava is completely incapable of picking a throw in the dirt. SO no, not at all.
   103. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4688922)
Albert Pujols, another homer. That's five in the last nine games.

EDIT: Five in his last nine games, and has hit in 14 of the 16 games he's played in this year. He may not be the Old Albert, but he's clearly a far, far better Albert than the last two seasons have indicated.
   104. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:18 PM (#4688923)
Harang through 7 (barely): 2 more walks, 0 hits, 122 pitches. Almost certainly going to be pulled in the 8th.
   105. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:21 PM (#4688925)
Not sure where I read it, but somewhere someone suggested:

1. Only players can make challenges (remove managers entirely from the process)
2. There is no limit on the number of successful challenges
3. You have a limited number of unsuccessful challenges.
4. If a player looks into the dugout for help, his challenge will not be accepted.

This is basically the tennis system. Not sure why it wouldn't work in baseball.
   106. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:23 PM (#4688926)
EDIT: Five in his last nine games, and has hit in 14 of the 16 games he's played in this year. He may not be the Old Albert, but he's clearly a far, far better Albert than the last two seasons have indicated.


Beware of small sample sizes...

Albert from July 4th to his end of the season, July 26th.... .328/.384/.522/.906 17 games, 73 pa, 4 hr, 15 rbi,

Not that I'm rooting against him, just not sure that any stretch of competence or incompetence should be taken too heavily, unless there is an injury indication.
   107. Lars6788 Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:25 PM (#4688928)


Beware of small sample sizes...

Albert from July 4th to his end of the season, July 26th.... .328/.384/.522/.906 17 games, 73 pa, 4 hr, 15 rbi,

Not that I'm rooting against him, just not sure that any stretch of competence or incompetence should be taken too heavily, unless there is an injury indication.


I'm cautiously optimistic that as long as he's healthy, he's going to play and hit relatively well.
   108. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:25 PM (#4688929)
This is basically the tennis system. Not sure why it wouldn't work in baseball.


It would slow the game down a little too much.

Again, I just see no purpose of a challenge system.
   109. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:27 PM (#4688932)
So, Huggy Bear just hit a two run jack to put the Braves up 3-0. At 120+ pitches, 6 walks and 0 hits, do you send Harang back out there in the 8th?
   110. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:27 PM (#4688933)
Freddie Freeman hits one out, and just about everyone involved is incredibly confused as to how that went out of the park. Pitcher, hitter, baserunner, fielders, and announcers were all like, "WTF, that went out?" It looked like he hit it off the end of the bat.
   111. Rob_Wood Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4688934)

cfb, I asked you how many times a review would be undertaken in your ideal system, or how many calls would be overturned. You have not answered. Don't you think the system that major league baseball would introduce would depend upon those answers?

In decision theory we call this a multi-attribute decision. Getting all calls correct is not the only goal of a replay system. Maintaining integrity of the umpires is a goal too. Not slowing up the game too much is a goal too. Transparency too is a goal. I am sure there are several other goals. Any system has to balance how well it performs on the competing objectives.

I guarantee you that baseball will never implement the system you describe. Why even have umpires then?
   112. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4688936)
So, Huggy Bear just hit a two run jack to put the Braves up 3-0. At 120+ pitches, 6 walks and 0 hits, do you send Harang back out there in the 8th?


No. I don't know what Fredi will do, but there is no reason to send him out there.

   113. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:31 PM (#4688937)
Mets make a nice relay to cut down a runner at the plate on a Dan Uggla double. Of course, being the Mets, Uggla tries for third, and the throw to get him sails into left, allowing Uggla to score.
   114. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:32 PM (#4688938)
cfb, I asked you how many times a review would be undertaken in your ideal system, or how many calls would be overturned. You have not answered. Don't you think the system that major league baseball would introduce would depend upon those answers?


Without reviewing every game from the previous season, It would be impossible to give a response. Estimating from my personal observation of baseball over the past few years, my guess is that a review would happen maybe once a week for most teams. Rephrase, review would happen probably about 8 times a game, and nobody on either team would even know they were happening, including the fans, but an overturn would probably be something that happens maybe once every other week.

In decision theory we call this a multi-attribute decision. Getting all calls correct is not the only goal of a replay system. Maintaining integrity of the umpires is a goal too. Not slowing up the game too much is a goal too. Transparency too is a goal. I am sure there are several other goals. Any system has to balance how well it performs on the competing objectives.


Trying to get all calls correct is utterly stupid. It's again, what is wrong with the NFL. You don't get those calls that take 8 times reviewing in stop motion and 3 minutes to be overturned. Those you attribute to within range of human error and move on.
   115. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:34 PM (#4688939)
And now that its 4-0, might as well give him a shot at a quick 8th inning, to see if he can get the no-no. It isn't like they're all that worried about his long-term health.
   116. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:35 PM (#4688940)
Send him out. Have an arm ready in the pen. 4-0, and you're not that worried about ragging out Aaron Harang's arm at this point in his career.
   117. Mike A Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:36 PM (#4688941)
Don Sutton on Braves radio was ridiculing the use of pitch counts in today's game....talking about how there's 'three times' as many pitching injuries nowadays.

So I guess he'd send Harang back out there.
   118. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:36 PM (#4688943)
The system we are talking about is
1. Has nearly zero impact on the speed of the game.
2. Will have a rotating umpire in the booth, so integrity should be pretty easy to maintain.
3. Transparency might be a little tough, but again, it's not necessary. You can have an overview given to the teams after each game if necessary, but the fans and players don't need to know when or how often a review has happened.
   119. Rob_Wood Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:36 PM (#4688944)

Okay, thanks for answering. Now I see the disconnect. If you think that only one call every other week would be overturned by a god-like review system, there is no use extending the conversation. One of us is seriously delusional.
   120. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:38 PM (#4688945)
Don Sutton on Braves radio was ridiculing the use of pitch counts in today's game....talking about how there's 'three times' as many pitching injuries nowadays.


Old people just need to die already.

Today's pitchers are surviving longer, of course Tommy John helps that, but also reduction in annual workloads etc.. You do not see players like John Fulgham anymore.
   121. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:38 PM (#4688946)
Pinch hitting for Harang. No hits through 7. Has a five run lead now. Do we get the vaunted "team no-hitter?"
   122. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:39 PM (#4688947)
Okay, thanks for answering. Now I see the disconnect. If you think that only one call every other week would be overturned by a god-like review system, there is no use extending the conversation. One of us is seriously delusional.


How many calls have been overturned so far? We are two weeks into the season and the Cardinals haven't had one yet. (note that one every 2 weeks is a per team basis, not league basis)
   123. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:39 PM (#4688948)
Awww, Fredi pulled him. He's trying to score more runs now that 5-0, but when it was 1-0, that extra run wasn't a big deal. I don't get it, but oh well.
   124. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:42 PM (#4688949)
If Harang hadn't looked like Lenny Dykstra's spent wad of chaw wriggling out of the seventh he would be back out there in the 8th. I have little doubt that Harang knows he's done for the night, told his managers as much, and knows that his best chance at a piece of a no-hitter is as part of a combined effort tonight.
   125. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:43 PM (#4688950)
Every time I wake up from snoozing the Rockies have scored more runs. 7-0 in the third.
   126. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:44 PM (#4688951)
Not sure how it's "godlike" it's basically the system the NCAA uses for football, Nhl uses and Japan uses for Sumo wrestling. There is literally no reason to have a challenge system, except to empower the coaching staff and give them a feeling of being part of the replay, and to actively slow the game down. It's simply faster to have a replay booth review the games as if they were the broadcast team and make a decision before anyone has time to bother challenging it. I do not think there has been a game in the past five years, in which the broadcast wasn't able to get as good of a camera angle on the replay to answer the questions Is the call right/wrong, and is there enough evidence to overturn it, within 30 seconds of the play happening.
   127. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:47 PM (#4688952)
Damn it, Luis.
   128. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:47 PM (#4688953)
There goes the collective no-hitter. David Wright with a clean single to left with two out in the eighth.
   129. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:48 PM (#4688955)
Also, Cardinals are stupid and dumb tonight.
   130. Mike A Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4688956)
Kinda figured Wright was the one guy the Braves had to get past...oh, well. Good effort.

Sometimes it feels like the Braves could take a random BTF poster and make him a league-average starter.
   131. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:50 PM (#4688958)
The Braves have come close in recent years: Teheran got through 7 2/3 last year against the Pirates, while Mike Hampton got into the seventh against the Phillies many years ago. But The Ghost of Mercker lives.
   132. cardsfanboy Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:51 PM (#4688959)
If you think that only one call every other week would be overturned by a god-like review system, there is no use extending the conversation. One of us is seriously delusional.


Two weeks into the season, there have been 35 overturns.... there are 30 teams, that works out close enough to one every two weeks, that it's hard for me to accept the argument that I'm the delusional one. If you honestly think that there are more than 3 overturnable plays every 2 weeks on average, then I think someone has a severe disconnect.
   133. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:54 PM (#4688960)
BJ's over .200!
   134. Brian White Posted: April 18, 2014 at 09:56 PM (#4688961)
B.J. Upton has been on base three times tonight. Dan Uggla is 2 for 4. Aaron Harang threw seven innings of no-hit ball.

Sometimes, I do not understand baseball.
   135. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:07 PM (#4688965)
Walden can be really frustrating at times. There are games where it's almost impossible to imagine anyone hitting him or even making contact. And then there are games where he has no clue where the ball is going.
   136. DKDC Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:08 PM (#4688967)
Another replay in Os-Sox.

This one goes in Sox favor. Watching the replay, I don't see how you overturn either way, just too close to call for me.

Shouldn't have been that close - 2B double clutched it, and defense has really been the difference in this game, so hopefully this doesn't come back to bite the Os.
   137. Rob_Wood Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4688968)

sorry, I use "god-like" to mean the replay official uses all visual evidence to get the call right (i.e., replaces the umpire on the field)

Jim Palmer just said it. "All plays are close. That's how baseball is." There are dozens of close plays every night. Maybe hundreds.
   138. DKDC Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:11 PM (#4688969)
Not sure why Matusz is still in here.

Edit: oh yeah, Nava batting 2nd, would rather face him with bad platoon matchup than face anyone on Boston's bench against any pitcher.
   139. Rob_Wood Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:13 PM (#4688971)
cfb, last post on this. you do realize that teams have only one challenge, right? don't you think that there just might be a few more overturns if "challenges" were unlimited?? jeez
   140. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:26 PM (#4688976)
Giancarlo Stanton breaks a tie with a walk-off grand slam.
   141. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:34 PM (#4688978)
Martin Maldonado hit the cover off the ball today in the 6th inning at Pittsburgh.

No, really.
   142. DKDC Posted: April 18, 2014 at 10:36 PM (#4688979)
#140, awesome. Those are always fun.
   143. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 18, 2014 at 11:11 PM (#4688988)
I'm at the Coliseum. All I could think about as the A's went up 7-0 after 8 batters was how sad it must be to be an Astros fan.
   144. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 18, 2014 at 11:16 PM (#4688993)
B.J. Upton has been on base three times tonight. Dan Uggla is 2 for 4. Aaron Harang threw seven innings of no-hit ball.

Sometimes, I do not understand baseball.


When it comes to Braves versus Mets, always assume the Mets are going to look bad and the Braves are going to look good.
   145. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: April 18, 2014 at 11:24 PM (#4688996)
That Stanton slam came after the bases were loaded on yet another of those newfangled non-catches. Seager had the ball firmly in his glove for a force at third, but juggled it as he prepared for a throw to first.

I've officially moved from disliking this replay implementation to hating it.
   146. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 19, 2014 at 12:03 AM (#4689003)
   147. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: April 19, 2014 at 12:10 AM (#4689004)
cfb, last post on this. you do realize that teams have only one challenge, right? don't you think that there just might be a few more overturns if "challenges" were unlimited?? jeez


Except umpires can also initiate challenges so sometimes (as tonight in the Red Sox/Orioles game) a team can get multiple challenges.

The other way it slows things down is the "arguments" where the manager stands there with his thumb in his ass waiting for the Bench Coach In Charge of Video Monitoring and Healthy Snacks" decides if it's worth a review or not.

Replays should be handled entirely by the booth and should be used solely for scoring plays. Everything else, #### happens. Life's not fair, a guy gets on because the ump missed a call, get the next guy out.
   148. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 19, 2014 at 12:26 AM (#4689007)
Scott Van Slyke: lefty masher.
   149. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 19, 2014 at 12:44 AM (#4689012)
Whoa, I just saw that a Clemens pitched for Houston today. But he's not Roger's son who was drafted by Houston back in the day.
   150. Sunday silence Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:26 AM (#4689017)
cfb, last post on this. you do realize that teams have only one challenge, right? don't you think that there just might be a few more overturns if "challenges" were unlimited?? jeez


I know, right? How does CFB not get this part??if you're sitting in a booth reviewing bad calls, are you only supposed to pick one or two? Right. That would be stoopid especially with CFBs idea that the audience doesnt know which plays are being reviewed.

That would make for some real accusations of bias. You watch a game with like 5 or 6 very close calls, two of them are overturned. You have no idea on the other 4 or 5 whether anyone reviewed them or not. The two calls go against you, the other 4 could have been in your favor. How would fans react to that sort of "black box" process? It cant work like that.

So again, CFB says they only review 1 or 2. HOW DO YOU DECIDE THAT? Just pick any two? Just pick the first two plays? Just pick plays with men on base?

And then tell the TV audience nothing about which plays you reviewed...
   151. Sunday silence Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:29 AM (#4689018)
. Why even have umpires then?


You still need to know in real time whether someone is out or safe and whether the ball is a strike or not. That much seems obvious.
   152. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:12 PM (#4689086)
EARLY GAMES FOR APRIL 19 (new OMNICHATTER thread pending):

Blue Jays (9-8) @ Indians (7-9), 1:05pm
TOR: Mark Buehrle (#56, 35, LHP, 3-0, 0.86)
CLE: Corey Kluber (#28, 28, RHP, 1-1, 5.40)

##Cardinals (10-7) @ Nationals (10-7), 1:05pm
STL: Lance Lynn (#31, 27, RHP, 3-0, 4.00)
WSN: Jordan Zimmermann (#27, 28, RHP, 1-0, 5.27)

**Angels (8-8) @ Tigers (7-6), 1:08pm
LAA: C.J. Wilson (#33, 33, LHP, 2-1, 3.92)
DET: Max Scherzer (#37, 29, RHP, 0-1, 2.70)


Orioles (8-7) @ Red Sox (7-10), 1:35pm
BAL: Bud Norris (#25, 29, RHP, 0-1, 3.75)
BOS: Felix Doubront (#22, 26, LHP, 1-2, 6.75)

Twins (8-8) @ Royals (8-7), 2:10pm
MIN: Kevin Correia (#30, 33, RHP, 0-1, 5.30)
KCR: Bruce Chen (#52, 37, LHP, 0-1, 6.30)

Reds (7-9) @ Cubs (4-11), 2:20pm
CIN: Tony Cingrani (#52, 24, LHP, 1-1, 2.60)
CHC: Edwin Jackson (#36, 30, RHP, 0-1, 6.19)

Astros (5-12) @ Athletics (11-5), 4:05pm
HOU: Brett Oberholtzer (#39, 24, LHP, 0-3, 3.50)
OAK: Scott Kazmir (#26, 30, LHP, 2-0, 1.40)

**OMNICHATTER matchup of the afternoon
##Game Note: Nationals starting CF Ben Revere is cleared to play after a 7-day DL with concussive symptoms
   153. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:21 PM (#4689089)
So again, CFB says they only review 1 or 2. HOW DO YOU DECIDE THAT? Just pick any two? Just pick the first two plays? Just pick plays with men on base?


I really hope everyone is pulling my chain with how dense they are on this issue. I really can't imagine that my point is that hard to comprehend. The system that I'm talking about is a common sense approach to replay, that most people would have imagined that this is how it should be done if given a chance to design a system.



There is an ump at a replay booth, watching the game live. Any play that in his educated opinion that he needs to look at again, he has the control to look at it quickly to make a decision on whether 1. the call was wrong 2. the call was right 3. he needs more time to make a decision. Generally speaking most plays the decision is done within 20 or so seconds and easily before the next pitch. (that currently happens with broadcasts, so I'm not imagining a world or technology that doesn't exist) If he needs more time, there would be a system in place to signal the crew chief..the chief holds play until another signal is sent indicating his decision.

This isn't rocket science.

If a manager comes out to argue the call, the replay ump can signal the crew chief that he has already reviewed the play, and has already made a decision(either confirming the call or reversing it...and it more than likely would have been done before the manager even gets on the field)
   154. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4689090)
That Stanton slam came after the bases were loaded on yet another of those newfangled non-catches. Seager had the ball firmly in his glove for a force at third, but juggled it as he prepared for a throw to first.

I've officially moved from disliking this replay implementation to hating it.


You are not the first person to say this, but I am curious....how does the juggle play, have anything to do with replay? Your issue isn't with replay, it's with the new rule on a catch, a completely separate issue from replay.
   155. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:26 PM (#4689094)
cfb, last post on this. you do realize that teams have only one challenge, right? don't you think that there just might be a few more overturns if "challenges" were unlimited?? jeez


Yet there are four teams who haven't even made a challenge yet this season. Plays that need to be overturned are fairly rare in MLB. I listed roughly 1 every 2 weeks. I provided data that supports that claim, I can see an argument that it might be once a week with unlimited challenges, but even that is probably way high of an estimate.

I have no idea what baseball you are watching, where there are more than 1 overturnable play a week. (unless you are a Red Sox fan or Braves fan...those are the biggest crybabies in sports, so I could imagine you living in a world where the umps mess up that much, but reality isn't that--although I know plenty of Cardinal fans that still cry over Denkinger)
   156. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:28 PM (#4689097)
Nationals defense is doing it's impression of the first game of the series. Cardinals take a 2-0 lead in the second inning, thanks to the National third baseman channeling the missing Zimmerman.
   157. cardsfanboy Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:33 PM (#4689105)
Going to the other thread...
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