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Friday, August 10, 2018

OMNICHATTER is on time and under budget! for August 10, 2018

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 10, 2018 at 01:40 PM | 102 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 10, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5724740)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!
   2. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 10, 2018 at 02:24 PM (#5724770)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!

[Gazes into crystal ball]

A's NIP HALOS, 4-3; KHRIS DAVIS BOUNCES SKY SHOT OFF TROUT'S HEAD, OVER WALL FOR GAME WINNING FOUR BAGGER
   3. Red Voodooin Posted: August 10, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5724778)
It's just ####### impossible for Kyle Hendricks to NOT give up runs in the first inning.
   4. stanmvp48 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5724783)
WILL THE ORIOLES BE MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED TODAY?
   5. Red Voodooin Posted: August 10, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5724784)
Kyle Hendricks' 2018 ERA/sOPS+ by inning:

1st: 8.22/151
2nd: 3.13/113
3rd: 1.59/77
4th 3.27/79
5th 4.15/89
6th 6.35/90

And it's not even that he's getting super unlucky in the 1st innings either. His babip is .268 in the first, lower than his overall babip .282.

He's not walking people. Only three walks in the first inning out of 103 batters faced (before today), but he's getting drilled to the tune of a .643 slugging %.

It's really peculiar.


   6. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5724798)
@Ken_Rosenthal
#Phillies acquiring 1B Justin Bour and cash from #Marlins for a minor-league pitcher, sources tell The Athletic.
   7. Khrushin it bro Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5724801)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!


Fernando Rodney will pull out an actual arrow and shoot Mike Trout in the heart???
   8. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5724805)
@byBenHarris
Phillies got: Wilson Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour (+ $), Aaron Loup

Phillies traded: PTBNL/$, Franklyn Kilome, Jacob Waguespack, non-top 30 minor league pitcher

@byBenHarris
Justin Bour's 2018 spray chart overlaid on Citizens Bank Park...I spy what looks like 12 outs that turn into home runs if everything was hit at CBP...
https://twitter.com/byBenHarris/status/1027985349392453632
   9. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5724810)
And it's not even that he's getting super unlucky in the 1st innings either. His babip is .268 in the first, lower than his overall babip .282.

He's not walking people. Only three walks in the first inning out of 103 batters faced (before today), but he's getting drilled to the tune of a .643 slugging %.


This suggests that he's allowing more fly balls - which generally leads to both a lower BABIP and a higher SLG, both in terms of extra-base hits on BIP and in terms of additional HR. Should be easy to check.

Also remember that first-inning scoring in general is higher (albeit not to this extent).

-- MWE
   10. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5724819)
Justin Bour is no Spring chicken, he's 30 years old.
   11. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5724827)
I don't think the Nats have been hitting Kyle hard today, just finding all the holes.
   12. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5724829)
IF THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY, my fantasy team would really appreciate it if it happened with Mike Trout in the lineup rather than in the dugout.
   13. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5724833)
When the h3ll did Schwarbird become not-terrible in LF?? Fück!

Of course, he's very terrible at bunting. Geeze!
   14. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5724841)
Actually...

Cubs should get a hit soon.
   15. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5724842)
Hellickson to face Rizzo to start his 3rd time through the opposing batting order. This will promptly end his no-hitter.
   16. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5724844)
TMZ @TMZ
Ex-MLB Star Esteban Loaiza Pleads Guilty to Cocaine Charge, Faces Life In Prison.

TMZ article so it's probably gross.

Steven pitched for the Nationals in 2005.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5724847)
Add Jeremy Hellickson to the dishearteningly long list of Pitchers the Cubs Make Look Like Max Scherzer.
   18. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5724851)
Rizzo seems to have zapped Hellickson of his command.
   19. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5724852)
It was El Mago casting a spell from the on-deck circle.
   20. Khrushin it bro Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5724853)
Trout to the DL
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5724855)
And there goes the no-hitter...literally, as in walking off the mound.
   22. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5724856)
Trout to the DL

Dayum! He's not even playing in a game right now!!
   23. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5724857)
It didn't take long for Deivi to find the reliever who's having a bad day.
   24. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5724858)
Heyward, the world's worst cleanup hitter, comes through against a lefty. What a world.
   25. Red Voodooin Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5724863)
Funny, I'm pretty sure the Nats were no-hitting the Cubs through five in both Game 1 and Game 3 of the NLDS last year. Cubs won both games.
   26. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5724865)
Stats By STATS @StatsBySTATS
Nationals' Jeremy Hellickson is the first pitcher since Matt Clement of the Cubs in 2003 to pitch at least five innings while allowing zero hits and at least two earned runs.

He's just the eighth pitcher in the live-ball era to finish with such a line.


Gee, what an honor.
   27. rconn23 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5724867)
Aaron Boone's lineup decisions continue to amaze. Down two of your best bats and don't play the guy who hit two HRs yesterday and has been raking for the past month.
   28. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:45 PM (#5724871)
For those of you watching the Cubs on TV, how the hell are they calling Contreras out?
   29. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5724872)
He was in the field and not the base path. Correct call.

Though I don't understand why schwarber would be back at first (or why the rule outs him there)
   30. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5724874)
Greg Holland with the 7.24 ERA and counting.
   31. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:52 PM (#5724875)
He was in the field and not the base path. Correct call.
Coomer disagreed rather vehemently.

   32. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5724877)
Coomer is a moron.

Len and JD agreed because they're not.
   33. Red Voodooin Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:02 PM (#5724887)
Coomer is a moron.

Len and JD agreed because they're not.


I was also listening on the radio and haven't seen it. Pat Hughes was also pretty vocal that it was a bad call; he said Willson was maybe a half step inside the base-line, and Ron maintained that it shouldn't really matter because of the angle where the ball was thrown (and yeah, he's a moron).
   34. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5724892)
Trout to the DL

/throws chair
   35. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:13 PM (#5724894)
Rendon was almost to the plate and the throw definitely went right into willson. He was very clearly a step on the grass his entire run to the base.

Willson makes up for it on defense though.
   36. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5724897)
By my calculations Juan Soto has been picked off at 1B twice in this game.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5724898)
Woke up in time to catch b7 and t8 ... what weird innings those both were. I would like to thank Dave Martinez for doing us a solid by bringing Holland into the game.
   38. Bote Man Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5724905)
The working theory is that Deivi brought on Holland to stick it up Mike Rizzo's butt that he has such crappy bullpen choices to work with.
   39. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:37 PM (#5724907)
Strop has been fantastic for some time now.
   40. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5724916)
the phillies now have players with the 3rd (santana), 8th (hernandez), 10th (bour) and 12th (hoskins) most walks this season.

of those 12, the phillies players rank 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th in OBP, and 7th, 10th, 11th and 12th in OPS.
   41. Perry Posted: August 10, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5724930)
I was also listening on the radio and haven't seen it. Pat Hughes was also pretty vocal that it was a bad call; he said Willson was maybe a half step inside the base-line, and Ron maintained that it shouldn't really matter because of the angle where the ball was thrown (and yeah, he's a moron).


Just watched the video, looked pretty cut and dried. A half step inside the baseline is, you know, inside the baseline, thus not in the lane, thus if he interferes (i.e. the throw hits him) he's out. And the "angle where the ball is thrown" is irrelevant. The rule just says if he interferes with the fielder taking the throw he's out.
   42. salvomania Posted: August 10, 2018 at 06:50 PM (#5724938)
the phillies now have players with the 3rd (santana), 8th (hernandez), 10th (bour) and 12th (hoskins) most walks this season.

of those 12, the phillies players rank 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th in OBP, and 7th, 10th, 11th and 12th in OPS.

I don't understand this---Bour is 10th in the NL in walks and 11th in OBP? Because no he isn't.

Is the first line indicating league ranking, and the second line indicating their ranks on the Phillies team, and not the league? If so, that needs to be articulated for the comment to make any sense.
   43. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 10, 2018 at 07:35 PM (#5724949)
Terry Francona asks Cleveland Indians' fans to keep Leonys Martin in their thoughts s.cleveland.com/SBOB3Uc


That sure sounds ominous.
   44. John DiFool2 Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5724954)
With Trout out, you'd think the MVP would be Mookie's to lose now. But I've seen some recent talk about his teammate JDM getting some love. You'd think the large defensive and baserunning edges there would outweigh a few extra homers (and JD may be leading in RBI's, but Mookie is 2nd in runs with 95). Yes, we do have the Cleveland duo too, just would hate to see the knee-jerk HR/RBI guy win, again...
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:23 PM (#5724960)
Jose Martinez, professional hitter.... I just wish he would start lifting the ball more... and Ozuna with the double play.
   46. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5724961)
Just watched the video, looked pretty cut and dried. A half step inside the baseline is, you know, inside the baseline, thus not in the lane, thus if he interferes (i.e. the throw hits him) he's out. And the "angle where the ball is thrown" is irrelevant. The rule just says if he interferes with the fielder taking the throw he's out.


The problem is that if I remember the rule correctly it contradicts itself(I'm not looking it up, just going from memory) but there are two rules in effect, one is about the lane the runner is supposed to take, and it effectively unfairly penalizes right handed batters, since they have to cross over to field of play to get to the outside of the base line, and the rule as written said "path to the bag" or something like that. While the rule on interference indicates where they are located in regards to in our out of the baseline with a different definition of the baseline.

Again this is from memory, I'm busy watching the game and a tv show right now, along with doing some work for a buddy of mine's business(and a side project for myself) so I'm not really going to look up the specific rules like I normally would to see if my memory is faulty or not.

note: I know zero about the play we are talking about including what happened, just reading the comments and reacting to them.
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5724962)
Dejong is starting to hit the ball the way he has shown he can previously... 1-0 Cardinals.
   48. Howie Menckel Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5724963)
Wheeler has now allowed 2 ER for the Mets in his last 25 IP, is at just 70 pitches through 5 IP (yes, vs Marlins)

he used to be able to throw 70 pitches without being out of the 3rd inning yet
   49. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:42 PM (#5724968)
Seriously, why would you ever throw a strike to Matt Carpenter right now?
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 08:48 PM (#5724971)
Jose Martinez, professional hitter still hasn't gotten his average up to .300 after his slump, but he's knocking on the door with a .296.
   51. Howie Menckel Posted: August 10, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5724974)
All-Star Marlins C Realmuto ends surprising 0-for-23 drought with surprising 2nd hit off Wheeler
   52. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 10, 2018 at 09:11 PM (#5724978)
[Gazes into crystal ball]

A's NIP HALOS, 4-3; KHRIS DAVIS BOUNCES SKY SHOT OFF TROUT'S HEAD, OVER WALL FOR GAME WINNING FOUR BAGGER

Trout to the DL

You can just call me Swami St. Nick, even if some of the details were a bit fuzzy.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 09:20 PM (#5724981)
Commercial on the game advertised Cardinal bobbleheads for the 25th anniversary of Sandlot... you get either a Ham figure or a Squints figure in a Cardinal uniform... I said that sounds cool... my gf is now buying us tickets for that game, so on Tuesday I will be at the Cardinal game.

I'm a toy geek, so I love to get bobbleheads, so that is almost always the games we look at trying to go to(rings, stadium replica's also work), but of course economics and schedules and teams we are playing will figure into it, I try to go to about 6 or so games a year, one per month is the norm... but this will only be my second game this year. This manages to cross off a team that I'm pretty sure I've never seen play live, Washington Nationals.... not sure how many NL teams I haven't seen, I'm not anal enough to track them all, but the last couple of years I have started to think about it, and try to figure out who I have missed(I do have the ticket stub and every program for every game I've ever been too, but they are not remotely organized or even in locations that I have easy access too, but eventually I'll figure out who I've seen, who I haven't(almost all al teams except the central) etc...)


In the meantime, I have to rely on faulty memory. Which pretty much says I've seen every NL central team, not sure about the Diamondbacks in the west, and sadly I'm not sure I've ever seen the Mets or Nationals in the east. I think there is no way I haven't seen the Mets, but I can't think of a particular game I saw, while I know that I saw the Marlins, because when Ozzie was retiring and since he announced it late in the season, the Marlins and Andre Dawson gave Ozzie a picture(or something) as a gift in honor of his retirement at a game I was at. (I've seen the Cardinals as visitors in LA, Mil, SD and Col) ....
   54. Howie Menckel Posted: August 10, 2018 at 09:50 PM (#5724990)
Ƒunhouse
‏ @BackAftaThis
9m9 minutes ago

The #Orioles are about to fall 46½ games behind Boston, and they only have 46 games remaining. I don't like their chances at all.
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5724995)
Six, is a serious number.... $.50 drinks tomorrow at Mobile on the run... Bader with a homerun.
   56. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5724996)
Just because... the last 24 games Matt Carpenter has 23 runs scored, 32 hits, 6 double, 15 hr, 23 rbi... a line of .356/.464/.922/1.386
   57. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5725000)
I missed this bit of trivia, I should turn in my baseball fandom card.. how in the hell did Adalberto Mondesi get his first major league appearance in the world series? I'm assuming it's an injury type of thing, but still that seems weird.
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:29 PM (#5725003)
Jose Martinez, professional hitter, with a double to score Yadier and make it 7-0 Cardinals.
   59. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5725005)
By baseball reference, Yadier Molina with a 116 ops+ this year, if he was listed as average defensively, instead of the liability he is, would still only be a 1.8 war player right now.
   60. Jay Seaver Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:35 PM (#5725006)
The Sox-Orioles game is wild. To think I was kind of resigned to a loss when I got on the subway after my movie.
   61. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:53 PM (#5725012)
Adolis Garcia with his first major league hit... I'm pretty sure that it isn't his last.
   62. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5725013)
19-11 Bos vs Bal... not really a pitchers duel is it?
   63. Chip Posted: August 10, 2018 at 10:59 PM (#5725014)
It’s been very much an August in Camden Yards is a bandbox kind of night.
   64. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:02 PM (#5725016)
Daniel Poncedeleon has pitched 13 innings in major league baseball, and has allowed 2 hits so far in his major league career (one was a grandslam homerun that he walked the first guy and then allowed the homerun, it's all about timing)
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:02 PM (#5725017)
Since I started to write that comment in 64, he's allowed two more hits.
   66. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5725018)
Barring a big comeback here the Baltimore Orioles are about to be eliminated from divisional contention.
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5725019)
I know that there is a reason for it, but Poncedeleon just caught a soft linedrive up the middle and the positioning of his arms was pretty telling... the ball was about a 6 inches over his head, he caught the ball with both hands, and his arms were literally in front of his face as a shield.

   68. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:09 PM (#5725021)
Jose Martinez, professional hitter just got walked on four straight pitches, for the fourth time this game he has reached base.
   69. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5725022)
Did Poncedeleon get hit in the minors?

The Orioles can now focus on the Wild Card.
   70. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5725023)
Cardinals first round draft pick... a high school kid has already been promoted to single a, and in his second game there, hit his first homerun for that level. (this is a kid who won the high school homerun derby)
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:14 PM (#5725024)
Did Poncedeleon get hit in the minors?


Is this a serious question?

If so, yes he got hit, he was in a coma. And spent three weeks in the hospital.
   72. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:17 PM (#5725026)
No Trout, no Ohtani, and Felix Peña pitching. The Angels are unwatchable.
   73. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:21 PM (#5725029)
The Rays pulled Snell after five innings of perfect baseball... not sure I agree with that decision.
   74. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:26 PM (#5725030)
It's hilarious looking at bb-ref and the Rays pitchers and their games started... they have a "reliever" who has 108 ip and just 5 games started, they have a guy with 18 games started and 45 innings pitched. I knew that they were trying to stretch the definition of games started, I didn't realize it was this much, I thought it was just every fourth or fifth game, but for the most part they had two major league starters(just traded one of them) and a bunch of relievers... they are actually doing the experiment that TLR stopped after a few tries.
   75. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5725033)
Holy ####. Yes it was a serious question. Damn it’s pretty remarkable that he is pitching in the bigs let alone succeeding.
   76. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5725035)
@statsbystats

With the Orioles' loss today, they've been mathematically eliminated from the AL East race with 46 games remaining in the season, the most in the divisional era.

They also tie the 1962 Mets and 1932 Red Sox for the earliest date to be eliminated from the division/league race.
   77. cardsfanboy Posted: August 10, 2018 at 11:41 PM (#5725040)
Holy ####. Yes it was a serious question. Damn it’s pretty remarkable that he is pitching in the bigs let alone succeeding.


Sorry, but yes it was a pretty big story, he was hit in the head and put in the hospital for three weeks, when it was pretty clear he was probably a week or month away from making the major leagues last season. It was a no doubter he was going to be joining the team last season, it was just a matter of when not if. After the hit in the head, that changed everything, he missed the rest of the season, and there was a doubt he would ever rebound enough to pitch in the minors... he came back and of course rebounded enough to make the majors.

Here is the deadspin article covering his recovery.

and just for the record, in his major league debut, he pitched 7 innings and allowed no hits and was pulled (justifiable pulled, he had a high pitch count)
   78. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 11, 2018 at 12:07 AM (#5725045)
I knew about that first start, didn’t realize the backstory. Hot damn.
   79. Bote Man Posted: August 11, 2018 at 12:23 AM (#5725048)
It’s been very much an 'August in Camden Yards is a bandbox' kind of night.

I've been to Oriole Park on such nights and they can be fun as h3ll!
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5725118)
Something weird went down with War for Carpenter (bWar). He was at 5.2 yesterday, and jumped to 5.9 today, even though he only had a 1 for 5 day, no walks 1 homerun (his ops didn't change one bit, avg went down a point, obp down two points, slg up two points) I'm sure it has something to do with an adjustment to park calculations or something like that, but still that is a big ass jump for a non-remarkable day.
   81. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 11, 2018 at 12:39 PM (#5725134)
With the Orioles' loss today, they've been mathematically eliminated from the AL East race with 46 games remaining in the season, the most in the divisional era.

They also tie the 1962 Mets and 1932 Red Sox for the earliest date to be eliminated from the division/league race.


By "date", I assume you're referring to the number of games remaining on the schedule, not the calendar date, correct?
   82. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5725144)
Something weird went down with War for Carpenter (bWar). He was at 5.2 yesterday, and jumped to 5.9 today, even though he only had a 1 for 5 day, no walks 1 homerun (his ops didn't change one bit, avg went down a point, obp down two points, slg up two points) I'm sure it has something to do with an adjustment to park calculations or something like that, but still that is a big ass jump for a non-remarkable day.


Baez went down 0.3 with a 0/3 1 BB day.
   83. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5725182)
Baez went down 0.3 with a 0/3 1 BB day.


That seems reasonable, if he was at 4.75 before(which would be 4.8) and is now at 4.54... an 0/3 1bb game for a second baseman that was involved in only three defensive plays(two groundouts and a force play)
   84. Red Voodooin Posted: August 11, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5725184)
a third of a win? no that doesn't seem reasonable.
   85. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 05:14 PM (#5725186)
a third of a win? no that doesn't seem reasonable.


I've routinely seen players move .2 - .3 on a daily basis generally a 0 fer almost always moves a guy down .1 or .2 it's not actually a third of a win though, this isn't win shares, it's wins above replacement. A replacement player could have gone 0 for 3 with a walk and only 3 defensive plays at second base.

I've never seen a guy have a routine day like Carpenter for him and get a .7 war jump. At the level that Carp and Baez have established it's easy to drop down, it's harder to move up drastically, steadily sure, but a true jump usually requires them to have one of their outstanding games, not a routine game.
   86. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5725191)
I've routinely seen players move .2 - .3 on a daily basis generally a 0 fer almost always moves a guy down .1 or .2 it's not actually a third of a win though, this isn't win shares, it's wins above replacement. A replacement player could have gone 0 for 3 with a walk and only 3 defensive plays at second base.


Let's look at the components of WAR. He did not hit into a DP. He had 2 opportunities. He walked in one, grounded out but avoided the DP in the other. At worst that should be a 0. Perhaps it is a tiny positive. The only time he was on base, he scored from second on a single. That should be a tiny positive. He played second base, which has positive positional value, so that should be a tiny positive. He played the whole game which has positive replacement value, so that should be a tiny positive. 0/3 with a walk is a negative, but it hardly accounts for all. Otherwise, over a full season it would be worth something like -400 runs.

Defense. As you say, he made only 3 plays. On the season, he has +5 defensive runs making 4.45 plays per 9 innings. So he was 1.45 below that. He made no errors.

Had he gotten a single, and made 1 more play, he would have been around his seasonal averages in batting and plays made. As you say, the drop could have been as small as -0.21, but it was likely more than that. Factor in the tiny positives gains elsewhere, and it looks like you crediting a single and 1 defensive play being worth 2.5-3 runs. That's not reasonable.

The fact that Carpenter went up so much for a pedestrian day is indicative that there was a systemic change for all players.
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:09 PM (#5725195)
The fact that Carpenter went up so much for a pedestrian day is indicative that there was a systemic change for all players.


Without knowing more than those two, I don't see how that is evidence. Again I've routinely seen .2 war changes up and down for just one game, it's not that rare, only time I've seen large changes has seemed to be a result the rolling calculations to park factors and that affects a limited number of players. I don't think of war as win shares, where it's rare for a guy to move down for a bad game, the simple fact is I've watched it happen over and over that I usually assume an 0 for 4 day is almost always going to be a -.2 war... Baez superficially looked like a -.1 to -.15 day from just observation that I've seen looking at guys I like and seeing how their daily numbers have changed.
   88. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:18 PM (#5725198)
Without knowing more than those two, I don't see how that is evidence. Again I've routinely seen .2 war changes up and down for just one game, it's not that rare, only time I've seen large changes has seemed to be a result the rolling calculations to park factors. I don't think of war as win shares, where it's rare for a guy to move down for a bad game, the simple fact is I've watched it happen over and over that I usually assume an 0 for 4 day is almost always going to be a -.2 war... Baez superficially looked like a -.1 to -.15 day from just observation that I've seen looking at guys I like and seeing how their daily numbers have changed.


Playing second base is worth about .025 WAR per game. Playing a full game is worth about .13 WAR in replacement runs. So those 2 alone give Baez a positive .15 WAR on the day. Ignoring any tiny positives from base running and DP avoidance (at worst they were 0. They weren't negative), means that 0-3 with a walk and 3 plays made with no errors is worth about -0.4 WAR. Again, that is not reasonable. Nowhere near.
   89. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5725200)
whatever. I've seen it happen all the time .2 change is fairly common on a day to basis in war. I don't fret it.

But for the record, no playing second base is not worth .025 war per game. You are looking at the rpos, which is designed to adjust for the less offense expected from a second baseman. There is no expectations of performance you get simply for playing a position.
   90. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:24 PM (#5725201)
whatever. I've seen it happen all the time .2 change is fairly common on a day to basis in war. I don't fret it.


Except he didn't go down .2. He went down .3, for a below average, but hardly disastrous game.
   91. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:28 PM (#5725204)
Ok, Baez removed in the 7th for a double switch. He went 0/2 with a sac fly. He got 2 assists and 1 PO. Should I expect him to drop another .3 WAR?
   92. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:32 PM (#5725207)
Ok, Baez removed in the 7th for a double switch. He went 0/2 with a sac fly. He got 2 assists and 1 PO. Should I expect him to drop another .3 WAR?


My guess is that with the drop from yesterday, that it will probably be closer to .1 drop. If at all.
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:35 PM (#5725208)
Except he didn't go down .2. He went down .3, for a below average, but hardly disastrous game.


Not really sure I wouldn't call it disastrous, replacement level offensive day, replacement level defensive day is pretty much disastrous. Outside of an 0-6 day with an error, it's tough to drop more than .3 for one game, but disastrous is a day being below replacement and he was below replacement for that day by the numbers.... mind you, he probably really wasn't but that is the ebb and flow of replacement level and war on a daily basis, it's not "accurate" barometer to look at daily, it's an overall screen shot of the players year to date, but it can fluctuate more than you might expect in season.
   94. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5725212)
Not really sure I wouldn't call it disastrous, replacement level offensive day, replacement level defensive day is pretty much disastrous.


Above replacement value everywhere else. Playing second base for a full game is worth .15 WAR. Had he gotten a single and made one more play, he would have been close to, but slightly below his seasonal averages. Which implies that 1 single and one more play is worth 4 runs. Not reasonable.
   95. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:42 PM (#5725213)
My guess is that with the drop from yesterday, that it will probably be closer to .1 drop. If at all.


So, 0 for 1 is worth 2 runs?
   96. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:45 PM (#5725217)
So, 0 for 1 is worth 2 runs?


War is not wins.
   97. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 11, 2018 at 06:50 PM (#5725219)
War is not wins.


WAR is a summation of runs. If a player drops .3 WAR, that means his components had dropped 3 cumulative runs, more or less.
   98. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 07:00 PM (#5725220)
WAR is a summation of runs. If a player drops .3 WAR, that means his components had dropped 3 cumulative runs, more or less.


no it doesn't, it means it dropped about 2.5 or something in that range, since replacement is a .320 winning percentage. Replacement alone is worth 3.2 runs per game effectively... an average player is worth 5.0 runs per game(effectively if we are going with this as an example) a guy who was completely useless, like Baez more or less was is going to be about 3.2 runs below replacement. In this case, because of the walk, it's probable he was only about 2.5 below replacement.
   99. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 07:09 PM (#5725223)
Whether it's accurate or not, from my experience watching war on certain players on a daily basis, an 0 for 3 with an average defensive day is almost always about a -.15 drop, sometimes it's .2 sometimes it's .1, but any fluctuation of .2 is not really something that I take issue with.

In defense of your viewpoint, it's possible that because of the relatively strong offensive performance the Cardinals have had on the road the past two days, that maybe their home park factor dropped a tad which would of course mean that Carpenter's number would get a bump up... but depending on how Baez has done on the road vs home, it could mean that his numbers took a small hit.

edit: looking at the numbers, that doesn't seem likely, if anything it would have helped him if that was the case, so there must be something else going on.
   100. cardsfanboy Posted: August 11, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5725265)
To be fair, Yadier's Molina ops+ went to 133 and Jose Martinez to 137... and I can't specifically say that it was a huge change from yesterday.... but both of those ops+ are tremendously higher than they were a few days ago...add in that Yadier's war has also seen a relatively large increase, but I can't tell the difference from one day to the next because I don't know where he was at, but he was in the low 1.0's three or so days ago and was at about 112 ops+ three days ago.
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