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Tuesday, May 08, 2012

On Pedroia, Gonzalez and Perception

Here’s a little lunch time quiz for you.

Red Sox Player A: Is 13 of 33 (.394) with runners in scoring position this season with a .425 in-base percentage and .606 slugging percentage. He has 15 RBIs this season.

He hit .337/.441/.483 with RISP in 2011.

Red Sox Player B: Is 9 of 29 (.310) with runners in scoring position this season with a .375 on-base percentage and a .446 slugging percentage. He has 11 RBIs this season.

He hit .316/.408/.471 with RISP in 2011.

Which is one is scrappy, passionate, ever-so-clutch Dustin Pedroia and which one is Adrian Gonzalez, the emotionless supposed choker who can’t handle Boston?

...

Pedroia is not an overachiever. He played college baseball for a major program (Arizona State) and was a second-round draft pick. He has ridiculously quick hands, tremendous hand-eye coordination and he’s strong. He doesn’t will himself to do anything any more than any other player can. It’s an insult to his ability to suggest he’s an overachiever.

Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 08, 2012 at 02:05 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4126577)
There's just something about guys who aren't in any way demonstrative that fans Eric Wilbur just don't like. Gonzalez is a very even-keeled guy (a la JD Drew, although not as weirdly inexpressive) and is on a big contract, so fans Eric Wilbur thinks he should be as angry as they he is when he makes an out in a big spot.
   2. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4126581)
It's impossible in today's media environment for a small white guy not to be labeled as an overachiever. Or scrappy. Or gritty. Anything that has a positive connotation and no real definition.
   3. Rotsa Ruck Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4126593)
There's just something about guys who aren't in any way demonstrative that fans Eric Wilbur just don't like. Gonzalez is a very even-keeled guy (a la JD Drew, although not as weirdly inexpressive) and is on a big contract, so fans Eric Wilbur thinks he should be as angry as they he is when he makes an out in a big spot.

If we're going to go with broad brush comments... My father is a casual baseball fan. My father used JD Drew as an example of the lackadaisical, don't give a crap prima donna ballplayer. I'm not sure he's registered an opinion about Gonzalez, but he's a pretty good zeitgeist indicator so I'd guess I'll hear about him soon.

Chad Finn had an even better Player A and Player B.

Player A: 606 games, .824 OPS, 80 homers, 286 RBIs, .264/.370/.455, generally excellent defense, took his sweet time running out groundballs, earned $70 million.

Player B: 612 games, .814 OPS, 80 homers, 374 RBIs, .290/.346/.468, generally excellent defense, took his sweet time running out groundballs, earned $55.5 million.

Player A is J.D. Drew. Player B is Mike Lowell. Their stats during their Red Sox careers are fairly similar, save for RBIs. Their legacies are not.

   4. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4126606)
What's strange about the JD Drew thing is that it seems people had grown bored of disliking him by the time the end of his contract had rolled around, and so he ended up getting a 'free pass' for his 2011 disaster of a season.
   5. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4126607)
Is there even a sizeable minority of folk who believe that Adrian Gonzalez cannot handle Boston? Really?
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4126618)
Is there even a sizeable minority of folk who believe that Adrian Gonzalez cannot handle Boston? Really?


No, I don't think so. I think, as the first post alludes to, this is a response to other media members.
   7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4126624)
Is there even a sizeable minority of folk who believe that Adrian Gonzalez cannot handle Boston? Really?


I'll disagree with Nate here. This is a recurring theme from a lot of friends/friends of friends since last year. The "he doesn't get it done in the clutch" thing is a bigger issue for them but that typically blends into the handling Boston thing. I have heard from more than one person something on the order of; "Adrian Gonzalez hasn't had a clutch hit since he joined the Red Sox. I'd rather have Ryan Sweeney up in a key spot, Gonzalez just isn't able to hack it here, he was better off in San Diego."

It's no one I take too seriously but it's a recurring theme among the fans I know.
   8. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4126630)
He had an MVP-calibur first year with the Sox. Maybe his power numbers could come up a bit, but I think he's in the top two or three first basemen on the planet.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4126641)
Hmm, fair enough. I've only heard grumblings this year because of his slow start but I didn't witness that sentiment last year (because of both his undeniably good season and that he could be compared to the other big-money acquisition Crawford).

Man, his sunday was a disaster though.
   10. plim Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4126650)
there are middle school girls that are taller than him. he's not even the best 2b in his division, and he's won an mvp (although cano had an off-year that year). if that's not the definition of overachieving, then i don't know what is.

and this is coming from a red sox fan who drafted pedroia this year on his fantasy team.
   11. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4126655)
It's impossible in today's media environment for a small white guy not to be labeled as an overachiever. Or scrappy. Or gritty.

Especially if like Petunia, he wears a scraggly beard and always winds up looking like Pigpen from the second inning on.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4126658)
he's not even the best 2b in his division

Really? I'm a Yankee fan, and if we're drafting 2B's in the AL East, I'm taking Pedroia #1. Probably #1 in all of baseball (though Cano and Kinsler are obviously close).
   13. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4126666)
Obviously it hasn't happened, but I think Adrian would be the very best player ever to be chased out of town. And there's a long list of good players who have had this happen to them, in lots of towns.
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4126676)
Obviously it hasn't happened, but I think Adrian would be the very best player ever to be chased out of town. And there's a long list of good players who have had this happen to them, in lots of towns.


The very best? that seems hard to believe, even though I don't really know your definition of "chased out of town."
   15. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4126682)
We're a long, long, loooooonng way from "chased out of town." We might as well start talking about the best player ever struck by lightning on the field. There's basically some minor grumbling that Gonzalez hasn't been hitting that well so far and he just got struck out by a position player. Not much different than any other struggling slugger on a big contract. Some crazy media guy just decided to flip out and call Gonzalez a bad guy for some reason.
   16. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4126689)
Yeah, I don't know how this definition works exactly. Would Jim Edmonds in Anaheim count?
   17. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4126694)
OK, I'll define it better so that I can be smacked around with more accuracy.

"Through statistically unmeasurable (or disproven, like RISP-only hitting) factors, a player is traded for less than he is clearly worth in the middle of a contract."

Yes, Edmonds would count.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4126697)
Babe Ruth? Alex Rodriguez?
   19. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4126699)
Sold on Ruth. I hereby amend my statement to "best player since the First Great Depression".

I think Rod is tighter.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4126704)
One of the Dick Allen trades might qualify.
-
We've rambled down a weird hypothetical path in which not only do the Sox trade Gonzalez because the fans think he isn't clutch, but also the Sox take pennies on the dollar in the deal.
   21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 08, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4126718)
I don't think Ruth was run out of town so much as sold for $$$. I think he's more "Pedro from Montreal to Boston" than "A-Rod." Wasn't Ruth pretty popular in Boston?

Rodriguez really is the best example I can think of. I don't think it was a majority of Ranger fans who blamed him but it was an issue that got a hell of a lot more traction than it ever deserved, and grew when the Rangers contended through much of 2004 while the Yanks ended 2004 the way they did.

Some crazy media guy just decided to flip out and call Gonzalez a bad guy for some reason.


The funny (ironic?) part of the piece above is that the guy who wrote it (Peter Abraham) probably wrote the single most damning piece against Gonzalez at the end of last year. The travel complaints and "God's will" stuff still come up. It's Gonzalez' version of Clemens' "we have to carry our own luggage."
   22. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 08, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4126731)
I don't think Ruth was run out of town so much as sold for $$$. I think he's more "Pedro from Montreal to Boston" than "A-Rod." Wasn't Ruth pretty popular in Boston?


Not with the owner. Harry Frazee was sick and tired of Ruth's holding out for more money, and of his jumping the team on a couple of occasions. He regarded selling Ruth as getting rid of a huge headache...
   23. Flounder has been eaten by a grue. Posted: May 08, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4126735)
Scott Rolen?

Sosa's departure from the Cubs had nothing to do with his on-field play, did it?
   24. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4126742)
I think Adrian is going to be looked upon as a better player than Rolen.

I think Rod (particularly at that time, as a shortstop) was better than Adrian, but I'm not sure he was run out of town rather than sold, as Jose says.
   25. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: May 08, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4126751)
Sosa's departure from the Cubs had nothing to do with his on-field play, did it?


Eh, I think the fact that Sosa was pretty clearly entering his decline phase played a pretty big part of it. You couldn't move Sosa (nor would you even want to) during his prime, but by 2004, Sosa seemed to be turning into a one trick pony. IIRC, his defense had become very, very poor and his average had dipped pretty significantly. Of course, Sosa didn't even perform his one trick (dingers) for the O's.
   26. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 08, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4126776)
"Through statistically unmeasurable (or disproven, like RISP-only hitting) factors, a player is traded for less than he is clearly worth in the middle of a contract."

Yes, Edmonds would count.


Somebody else already mentioned Dick Allen, who could make this list as many as five times, I think. Arguably, Frank Robinson. The GM who traded him for the Reds supposedly called him something like "an old 30". Pappas wasn't a BAD pitcher, but he wasn't Frank Robinson good, either.
   27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: May 08, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4126790)
Pedroia is not an overachiever. He played college baseball for a major program (Arizona State) and was a second-round draft pick. He has ridiculously quick hands, tremendous hand-eye coordination and he’s strong. He doesn’t will himself to do anything any more than any other player can. It’s an insult to his ability to suggest he’s an overachiever.


70s/80s the MSM constantly opined that Pete Rose had no more god given athletic ability than the average man on the street, but through tremendous effort and sheer force of will managed to not only somehow play ball with the big boys, but to excel against them...

which was all a bunch of complete hooey
Rose was not a burner or speed merchant, but for most of his career he was certainly faster than your average MLBer,
Rose had tremendous hand/eye coordination, certainly equal to if not better than your average MLBer
Rose had very quick hands, and it was very noticeable- both on defense and at the plate- more so than your average MLBer

But the story was that he was a hard working Joe, a non-prospect, an every man, who willed himself into contention... it was nonsense, he played in the minors for just three years, AS A REGULAR, the 4th year as pro he was starting in the MLB- at 22 and played in 157 games- that's not a non-prospect who works hard and fights for every inch - he was clearly seen by the Reds as a top prospect from the beginning.

But the MSM saw a scrappy white guy who ran out every play (yes the obnoxious little prick really did run at near full speed to 1st on walks) and they wanted to create a story, and once creating it they held onto it.
   28. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4126792)
We've rambled down a weird hypothetical path in which not only do the Sox trade Gonzalez because the fans think he isn't clutch, but also the Sox take pennies on the dollar in the deal.



Yes, but I don't feel like I'm picking on the Sox in a partisan way. Sometimes perception has much broader implications than practicality, and perception can dominate all other aspects of a player, particularly in baseball. It has happened before, and it'll happen again.
   29. Squash Posted: May 08, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4126817)
I like how Gonzalez is batting 5th today, protecting noted star Cody Ross in the 4 hole. Has Valentine just gone insane today or has this been going on for a while?
   30. TVerik Posted: May 08, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4126825)

I also think that once the process begins of fans seeing negatives and not positives about a player, it can be very difficult to change their minds due to the failure rate of even the best of players ("See? I knew he wouldn't get a hit right there!"). This disease is generally (not always, though) terminal.
   31. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 08, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4126880)
Has Valentine just gone insane today or has this been going on for a while?


Valentine is about as extreme a "hot hand" manager as I've seen for a while, and with the lefty on the mound, he goes all out for the platoon splits. It leads to weird stuff like that, but he also stays with effective relievers a little longer than one inning, which is nice.
   32. hokieneer Posted: May 08, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4126882)
Rose had tremendous hand/eye coordination, certainly equal to if not better than your average MLBer


Rose and Pedroia's biggest talent/skill/asset to being a MLB star is their hand/eye coordination. This is also the hardest talent for the general fan/writer to recognize and compare. It's very ease to say the guy that stole 40 bases is fast, or the guy that hit the ball 450 ft has power; but it's hard to see how impressive it is for a player to continuously square the ball on the barrel. Thus hyperbole is born.
   33. Darren Posted: May 08, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4126897)
Dustin Pedroia is an overachiever on any number of levels:

--He was drafted in the 2nd round and now he's an all-star. People simply did not think he had the physical tools to be an elite player.
--He was never ranked as a prospect before pre-2006, when he topped out at 77.
--He's 5'7 and came into the league with mediocre speed at best. That's not a combination that usually excels in processional sports.
--He has continued to improve since reaching the major leagues, adding power and speed, two things which even most of his fans didn't think he would add.


But that is all beside the point here, which is something about Gonzalez. And the first thing I thought of on that was what Jose referenced:
The funny (ironic?) part of the piece above is that the guy who wrote it (Peter Abraham) probably wrote the single most damning piece against Gonzalez at the end of last year. The travel complaints and "God's will" stuff still come up. It's Gonzalez' version of Clemens' "we have to carry our own luggage."


As an aside, the Clemens quote was far worse because he wasn't even complaining about carrying his bags. But this piece by Bradford really hammered Gonzalez for some rather innocuous comments by comparing them to Crawford's approach. The "God's will" thing was particularly unfair because it's just the kind of piety that writers usually laud players for. It took a lot of effort to see this as somehow Gonzalez shirking the blame for the collapse. In fact, you could easily argue that Gonzalez was taking the highroad by not saying that it was his teammates' (such as Crawford) who cause the collapse.

For Bradford to now turn around and wonder why people don't like Gonzalez is kind of puzzling.
   34. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 08, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4126930)
It's Peter Abraham, not Bradford.
   35. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: May 09, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4127087)
Valentine is about as extreme a "hot hand" manager as I've seen for a while, and with the lefty on the mound, he goes all out for the platoon splits.

I mean... You don't wanna go LL 3/4 against a lefty, I get that, and there aren't really very many good hitters in this lineup (6-9 tonight was WMB, Mcdonald, Byrd, Shoppach) to move up to begin with, but Ross hasn't had a really good AB in 2 weeks. ####, bat Shoppach 4th and at least you know you can PH for him when you lose the platoon advantage. Shop has gotta have 'power' in the same sense Ross does. Hell, McDonald has the only career HR off Duffy of any current Sox, bat him 4th. "Play the matchup." ####.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: May 09, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4127113)
I think Adrian is going to be looked upon as a better player than Rolen.


Seriously? Adrian is already on the downside of his career and hasn't really had a better offensive year than Rolen, with a positional adjustment I don't see how anyone can think they are comparable.
   37. Nasty Nate Posted: May 09, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4127124)
Adrian is already on the downside of his career


uhhh, what?

and hasn't really had a better offensive year than Rolen


uhhh, what?
   38. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 09, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4127126)
I would agree with an argument that Gonzalez has never had an overall year as good as Rolen's best, but his offensive peak clearly eclipses Rolen's (whose own peak season was quite the outlier, and managed in 18 fewer games).
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: May 09, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4127134)
Rolen's best year was a 158 ops+ vs Adrian 162. Roughly equivalent rate numbers. As 38 pointed out Gonzalez gets 18 more games played. Close enough before considering positional adjustments(there is a reason why Rolen gets an 8.8 war vs Adrian 6.6)

As to the comment about downside of his career. He's over 30, close enough to the downside.

Just going by War, Rolen had nearly 43 at the same age as Gonzalez who has 25. That 700 extra plate appearance by Rolen isn't the reason for the 18 war difference.
   40. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 09, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4127138)
Close enough before considering positional adjustments(there is a reason why Rolen gets an 8.8 war vs Adrian 6.6


There is no positional adjustment on offensive peak. Rolen's 158 was an outlier and was accomplished in 10 percent fewer games than Gonzalez. I've got no problem saying Rolen's had the better career and will likely have a better career, but Gonzalez is simply a better hitter, and it's not really that close.

As to the comment about downside of his career. He's over 30, close enough to the downside.


Technically accurate, but "over 30" is kind of an overstatment. He was exactly 30 when the thread started.
   41. Nasty Nate Posted: May 09, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4127204)
30 is not old in baseball
   42. cardsfanboy Posted: May 09, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4127336)
Rolen going into his age 30 season(.286/.378/.520/.898/133) Gonzalez (.293/.375/.514/.889/140) Not seeing much of a difference. Yes Adrian had 3 excellent ops+ years vs Rolen's oneDefinitely not seeing any reason to think Adrian Gonzalez will be looked upon as a better player than Rolen. I guess in the world of pop culture who gets all of it's information from the east coast bias network, it's possible. But realistically, in an unbiased world(you know one that would have had Bonds as the player of the decade for the 90's instead of Griffey) it's silly to think that Gonzalez is going to be regarded better than Rolen.

30 is not old in baseball


32 is.
   43. Nasty Nate Posted: May 09, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4127342)
32 is.


No it isn't, but what's the relevance anyway? Gonzalez turned 30 yesterday.
   44. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: May 09, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4127371)
(yes the obnoxious little prick really did run at near full speed to 1st on walks)

I thought I remembered this, and I know people say this a lot, so I watched for it when I looked at the '75 WS on DVD a few years ago.
Rose might've run out walks at some point in his career, but he was definitely not doing it after any of his five walks in that World Series.
   45. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 09, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4127418)
Rose might've run out walks at some point in his career, but he was definitely not doing it after any of his five walks in that World Series.

He probably didn't have any money on those games.

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