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Saturday, July 07, 2012

Orioles are ‘going hard’ after Brewers’ Greinke, industry source says - baltimoresun.com

Duquette is back!!

The source, an executive with another big-league club, said the Orioles appear to be the most aggressive suitor currently for Greinke, the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner who is a free-agent at the end of the season.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 07, 2012 at 08:40 AM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, orioles, rumors

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   1. boteman Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4175351)
Does his contract come with free visits to the team psychologist?
   2. TerpNats Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4175356)
Are Cuban Pete and company trying to keep him from the team at the other end of the B-W Parkway? (Though to be honest, I'm not certain the Nationals are prepared to give too much simply to have a fourth starter after Strasburg is shut down for his innings limit.)
   3. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:32 AM (#4175359)
Are Cuban Pete and company trying to keep him from the team at the other end of the B-W Parkway?

No, the Orioles have a legitimate desperate need of a starting pitcher if they're going to continue to contend for the playoffs in the second half. In the last several days they've demoted three-fifth of their starting rotation to Norfolk.
   4. bookbook Posted: July 07, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4175363)
I hear Millwood and Vargas are available... maybe for Adam Jones
   5. McCoy Posted: July 07, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4175374)
It would be awfully silly to trade for Greinke simply to keep the Nationals from having him. Besides Greinke Dempster and Garza are available plus a bunch of other pitchers. It just won't matter.
   6. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4175388)
The Orioles would do better to take an honest look at their roster in comparison to that of their competitors, and realize that they are not contenders and should not be trading prospects.
   7. GregD Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4175403)
The Orioles would do better to take an honest look at their roster in comparison to that of their competitors, and realize that they are not contenders and should not be trading prospects.
Is it so inconceivable they could get a wild card spot?
   8. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4175417)
The Orioles would do better to take an honest look at their roster in comparison to that of their competitors, and realize that they are not contenders and should not be trading prospects.

Lame. They've got a one and a half game lead on a better team with massive injury problems, a 3 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems and a 3.5 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems. The swing from Hunter to Greinke, with a possible break out from Tillman makes them a .500 or so team and gives em a shot to be in the hunt down the stretch.

Obviously it depends on the price (obviously you don't trade Bundy, they are better off just bringing him up), but if the O's aren't going to at least make a run at the second wild card in these circumstances, what's the point? I mean, going for it now is exactly how you show the players and fans that you are serious and that's why you hire Buck Showalter. Not to punt when you are up on some flawed teams because of your pythag.

I don't think there's a real threat Duquette plays it safe however.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4175425)
Lame. They've got a one and a half game lead on a better team with massive injury problems, a 3 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems and a 3.5 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems. The swing from Hunter to Greinke, with a possible break out from Tillman makes them a .500 or so team and gives em a shot to be in the hunt down the stretch.

Obviously it depends on the price (obviously you don't trade Bundy, they are better off just bringing him up), but if the O's aren't going to at least make a run at the second wild card in these circumstances, what's the point? I mean, going for it now is exactly how you show the players and fans that you are serious and that's why you hire Buck Showalter. Not to punt when you are up on some flawed teams because of your pythag.


This. So long as Bundy and Machado are off-limits, it makes sense for the O's to go for it. Baseball is littered with mediocre teams that made a run in September and October and those flags fly forever. O's fans have suffered for so long and prospects fail more often than not, so if you're in this position you need to make a run for it because you don't know when this will happen again.
   10. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4175435)
Throwing a bone to your long-suffering fans is a good thing to do, you have a good point there. I'd rather they suffer just a little longer for a chance to actually have a good team, that will contend for a few years, to root for.

Lame. They've got a one and a half game lead on a better team with massive injury problems, a 3 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems and a 3.5 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems.


Therein lies the problem. They're in a division with three teams that, even with the injury problems, are better than they are. And for the wild cards they have to compete with a fourth team (Anaheim) that is also better than they are. A lot better, actually.

Shoring up some weaknesses by trading a few low-minors arms for some veterans is fine. Paying what a half-season of Zack Grienke's services is likely to cost would be ill-advised, I think.
   11. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4175441)
I agree totally with RoyalsRetro. Even if the odds are slightly against them, the O's have been so bad for so long that they might as well take a shot and go for it, provided that the price isn't totally unreasonable.
   12. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4175446)
Same thing for the Pirates, right? The Pirates are even worse than the Orioles, yet I feel like all they need is for Votto to get hurt and miss a month and they might be able to ride their bullpen luck to the division title. And the rumor mill has the Pirates kicking the tires on pretty much everyone right now. It's damn exciting watching the Orioles and Pirates being buyers.
   13. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4175449)
Therein lies the problem. They're in a division with three teams that, even with the injury problems, are better than they are. And for the wild cards they have to compete with a fourth team (Anaheim) that is also better than they are. A lot better, actually.

I'm not really sure that the Jays are better than the O's with their current rotation. The Red Sox, sans Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury (not sure when he comes back), Buccholz, and Crawford could lose a lot of ground in the next week or two when the schedule is fairly tough. The Rays can't hit without Longoria and Joyce. This is as bad as the rest of the division will be for the foreseeable future and the O's have a lead with half a season left to play. They need to take advantage of it.

Agreed, the Angels are much better with Superman leading off. But they only need that second wild card.

Shoring up some weaknesses by trading a few low-minors arms for some veterans is fine. Paying what a half-season of Zack Grienke's services is likely to cost would be ill-advised, I think.

Of course, it all depends on the price. They have some a week or two to figure it out. See if Tillman can actually pitch, see if the team stays ahead immediately after the break, and get a full understanding of what it will cost before they pull the trigger.
   14. TerpNats Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4175450)
Another difference between the Orioles and Nationals is that Washington clearly has a window of several years before it (think of the Phillies circa 2007). The nucleus of the team is young, and the Nats should be a force in the division for at least the next four to five seasons. Rizzo really doesn't need to mortgage the farm for a top-line pitcher; they could get a back-end starter near the trading deadline for relatively little cost.

While Baltimore has some fine young talent, much of it hasn't reached the majors yet. If Duquette can trade other, non-essential pieces to Milwaukee for Greinke, the Orioles are a legitimate wild-card factor. But you better be certain you can keep him past 2012. It would embarrass Baltimore fans if Zach headed to the other end of the Parkway for 2013, a la Greg Maddux joining the Braves after they had won two division titles without him. (And no, I'm not saying Greinke's a Maddux by any stretch of the imagination.)
   15. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4175456)
Well, the biggest difference between the Orioles and the Natinals is that the Natinals are actually the best team in their division. They don't have to trade for veterans to improve; everyone else in the NL East has to improve to catch up to them.

I would be shocked if Greinke re-signed with the Orioles. But Greinke is known for being idiosyncratic, and the Orioles have money to throw around, so who knows.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4175500)
It will be interesting to see the CBA's impact on these deadline deals. I think everyone is preparing for a very quiet July deadline.


Another difference between the Orioles and Nationals is that Washington clearly has a window of several years before it (think of the Phillies circa 2007). The nucleus of the team is young, and the Nats should be a force in the division for at least the next four to five seasons. Rizzo really doesn't need to mortgage the farm for a top-line pitcher; they could get a back-end starter near the trading deadline for relatively little cost.

While Baltimore has some fine young talent, much of it hasn't reached the majors yet.


Aside from Bundy and Machado, I don't think the O's have a ton of minor league talent. I think most of those pitchers they were banking on have already come up and struggled and most are likely to never pan out. All the more reason to go for it now, because I'm not all that convinced there is that mythical window coming up for them.
   17. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 07, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4175507)
I agree totally with RoyalsRetro. Even if the odds are slightly against them, the O's have been so bad for so long that they might as well take a shot and go for it, provided that the price isn't totally unreasonable.


What if the price is Arrieta, Matusz and somebody like Schoop?
   18. TerpNats Posted: July 07, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4175512)
Well, the biggest difference between the Orioles and the Natinals is that the Natinals are actually the best team in their division. They don't have to trade for veterans to improve; everyone else in the NL East has to improve to catch up to them.
And how much do they have to improve before you stop referring to them as the "Natinals"? This isn't May 2010 anymore.
   19. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4175553)
That's not about how good they are on the field. It's about how endlessly hilarious it was (to me at least) that they actually put out uniforms with their own name misspelled.
   20. KronicFatigue Posted: July 07, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4175554)
There hasn't been an ideological shift in terms of being "buyers" chasing after the new wildcard? I thought there would be. If things break right for the O's, they get the privilege of having a coin flip's chance of making the real playoffs.
   21. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4175568)
I hate to break it Orioles fans, but Baltimore continues to be like a leaf falling off a tree, slowly swaying up and down on its way towards eventually landing on the ground.

The Orioles had a fantastic start to the season - after the games of May 19th, they were 2 games ahead in first place, with a record of 27-14. They are 18-24 since then. They've gone 16-6 in one run games, 9-2 in extra inning games.

I've said the whole season that Orioles will end up winning about 75 games, which means they'll have to go 30-49 the rest of the way. That's pretty bad, but would you bet the over or under on the team's ability to win 81 games?

I guess I'm saying that they team could trade for pitching help, and they still probably aren't making the playoffs.
   22. DKDC Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4175580)
What if the price is Arrieta, Matusz and somebody like Schoop?


Then they should probably pass and find a cheaper option.

The best bang for their buck is probably to go after average to below average starters. That gives nearly the same shot of sneaking into a wild card spot without compromising their talent base too much going forward. Although I do agree that they are well behind the rest of their division over the long term, so a marginal win this year could be worth giving up quite a few wins from 2013-2017.

I do think Duquette will be willing to trade at least one out of the group of Arrieta, Tillman, Matusz, and Britton and Schoop. Duquette will also probably look to move a bullpen arm and/or one of their marginal 1B/DH bats in a separate trade to try to pick up some sweeteners.
   23. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4175581)
I think you're spot on at around 75 wins for them, most likely. I do think there's merit to trying your best to keep them relevant for the trodden down fans' sake, though, if you're not giving up any likely future regulars.
   24. DKDC Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4175592)
I you expect the Orioles to go 30-49 from here on out, you think they are a 100 loss true talent team. Or you have an odd understanding of probability and expect them to be unlucky for the second half because they were lucky for the first half.

This Orioles team has been roughly a .500 team over their last 162 games and with a couple trades I think they are probably a roughly .500 talent team. Given where they are sitting right now, that would probably give them a better than 1-in-3 shot at the playoffs. I'll take that.
   25. Swedish Chef Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4175604)
I've said the whole season that Orioles will end up winning about 75 games, which means they'll have to go 30-49 the rest of the way. That's pretty bad, but would you bet the over or under on the team's ability to win 81 games?

Over, rough Pythagoras has them at 82.
   26. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 07, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4175643)
It's damn exciting watching the Orioles and Pirates being buyers.

I feel like boogieing on down to the Doobie Brothers and the Knack!
   27. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: July 07, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4175662)
Speaking of Greinke, he was apparently just ejected in the first inning for arguing a close play at first
   28. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4175668)
I you expect the Orioles to go 30-49 from here on out, you think they are a 100 loss true talent team.


Given that they're in the AL East, yeah, about 95 sounds right, anyway. It's not a good team.
   29. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4175684)
OK, the edit function isn't working for me right now, so here:

Sorry, that was a pretty low content post. The Orioles have a few very good players (assuming Adam Jones is legit, which I think he is) but a weak infield and a really bad rotation. I think if they're roughly .500 their past 162, then they're overachieving.
   30. Kurt Posted: July 07, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4175694)
The Orioles have a few very good players (assuming Adam Jones is legit, which I think he is) but a weak infield and a really bad rotation. I think if they're roughly .500 their past 162, then they're overachieving.

I think they clearly have more talent than they've had over the last five years or so, when they were losing 95 games a year. 40% of a rotation (Hammel and Chen) is more than they've had in a long time, the bullpen is very good, and Jones is their best position player since...Ripken? Alomar?
   31. Tripon Posted: July 07, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4175700)
Also, this isn't the same AL East where the top two teams regularly won 95 to 105 games beating up on the other members. Its a different beast now, one where the O's can compete better than in years past.
   32. bookbook Posted: July 07, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4175728)
Most prospects don't pan out. Short of, say, Bundy and Machado, the O's won't be killing themselves to throw 3 or 4 in a deal for Grienke, especially if the deal is contingent on extending him.
   33. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4175808)
Speaking of Greinke, he was apparently just ejected in the first inning for arguing a close play at first


That means he'll be available to pitch on Tuesday after all.
   34. DA Baracus Posted: July 07, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4175811)
Speaking of Greinke, he was apparently just ejected in the first inning for arguing a close play at first


What a horseshit call.
   35. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: July 07, 2012 at 08:53 PM (#4175812)
That means he'll be available to pitch on Tuesday after all.


Heck, he should be available to pitch tomorrow. Then again, the umpire that threw him out will be behind the plate tomorrow as well.
   36. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4175822)
That's not about how good they are on the field. It's about how endlessly hilarious it was (to me at least) that they actually put out uniforms with their own name misspelled.

It's not like they're the first team that's ever done it.
   37. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4175838)
At this point I'm just quietly waiting for the umpires to collectively make asses enough of themselves to bring on a crackdown. It's become a when question now, not merely an if. The self-important tyrannical arrogance has plunged headlong into comedic territory.
   38. escabeche Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4175877)
Jones is their best position player since...Ripken? Alomar?


Or since the surprising resurgence of Melvin Mora...?

Given that they're in the AL East, yeah, about 95 sounds right, anyway. It's not a good team.


But they're also not the worst team in the American League, which they'd have to be to think it's reasonable to expect them to go 30-49 the rest of the way.

It would never even have occurred to me to think about it making sense for the Orioles to add Greinke -- as a fan, I"m focused on "will we hold this together and have a winning season." The idea that the Orioles could contend for a playoff spot hadn't even really crossed my mind; I guess at this point I'd say it's unlikely, but not as out of the question as I'd imagined, and for Orioles + Greinke; well, still well-below 50/50 this team could make the playoffs (let alone advance) but the argument that a team on the bubble which is 6 games over its Pythag should take advantage of that good fortune is a solid one.
   39. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 07, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4175898)
Speaking of Greinke, he was apparently just ejected in the first inning for arguing a close play at first


He wasn't arguing a call; he just spiked the ball in frustration. He wasn't talking to or even looking at the umpire.

Here's the play. The umpire needs to take a forced vacation for that stunt.
   40. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4175943)
espn reported that greinke was unhappy with the call which is obviously untrue

ron states in the press conference after the game that the ump told him he tossed greinke because zack "showed him up"

for the record this is a now west crew

brewers in the clubhouse told the press that they expect their strike zone to be huge tomorrow since this ump has the plate tomorrow

bud has to wake up. umpire problem is spiraling out of control
   41. Dan Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4175944)
He might wake up since it's affecting the Brewers now.
   42. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 07, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4175948)
It's not like he spiked the ball in front of the ump, plus it was the 1st inning. What if anything had Greinke even said to him or HP prior to this play? beyond weak.
   43. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4183438)
21. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 07, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4175568)
I hate to break it Orioles fans, but Baltimore continues to be like a leaf falling off a tree, slowly swaying up and down on its way towards eventually landing on the ground.

The Orioles had a fantastic start to the season - after the games of May 19th, they were 2 games ahead in first place, with a record of 27-14. They are 18-24 since then. They've gone 16-6 in one run games, 9-2 in extra inning games.

I've said the whole season that Orioles will end up winning about 75 games, which means they'll have to go 30-49 the rest of the way. That's pretty bad, but would you bet the over or under on the team's ability to win 81 games?

I guess I'm saying that they team could trade for pitching help, and they still probably aren't making the playoffs.


Here we are on July 15th, and the Orioles, who were 45-38 at the time of the above writing, are now 46-42. They've lost four of their next five. In order to end up 75-87, they'll have to go 29-45 the rest of the way. They are 19-28 since their fast start - which is about the pace they'll have to maintain to go 29-45 the rest of the way. Don't worry, Orioles fans - I have full confidence in their ability to meet this challenge!
   44.     Hey Gurl Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4183445)
The Orioles' ability to be dreadful in July is one of the world's most fascinating consistencies.
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4183470)

Here we are on July 15th, and the Orioles, who were 45-38 at the time of the above writing, are now 46-42. They've lost four of their next five. In order to end up 75-87, they'll have to go 29-45 the rest of the way. They are 19-28 since their fast start - which is about the pace they'll have to maintain to go 29-45 the rest of the way. Don't worry, Orioles fans - I have full confidence in their ability to meet this challenge!


And yet still in line for the second wild card. What a cromulent idea Bud.
   46. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4183500)
Ugh. Seven teams are within 1.5 games of the 2nd WC spot - and the worst team of the seven is in the lead for that spot, so it's even tighter than it sounds.
   47. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 16, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4183538)
Yes, it's essentially sheer randomness. They could save us all the trouble and just put the top 15 teams in a hopper at the end of the year and draw the world champion on national television. Think of the ratings!
   48. madvillain Posted: July 16, 2012 at 01:20 AM (#4183541)
Although I am against it, the White Sox are rumored to be in on SP, and Greinke in particular. Any trade would start and end with Jose Quintana (the 23 year left handed old minor league signee with a 3.10 FIP) and although he's hardly a sure thing going forward, it would be yet another young cost controlled arm the Sox give up in a chase for 90, 91 wins in a mediocre division. I'm of the feeling they have enough without Zach, but who knows with KW's itchy trigger finger.
   49. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 16, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4184482)
Our nightly update on the Orioles inevitable collapse back to reality. They are about to lose by about two touchdowns to the Twins, and in so doing, will:

1) Fall to 46-43;
2) Fall out of the 2nd WC lead (Detroit will be 47-43; Baltimore, Oakland, and Cleveland will all be 46-43; the Red Sox and Rays will be 46-44; the Blue Jays will be 45-45);
3) Have the second-worst run differential in the American League, behind only the Twins;
4) Make my prediction of 75 wins seem just a little more doable - they now have to go 29-44 the rest of the way to finish 75-87. Their Pyth projection before tonight's beatdown was that of a 74-win team; tonight just slides them further down.

They suck.
   50. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4185728)
Tonight's update:

Orioles lose again. They were 27-14, and have gone 19-30 since then. They are now out of the wildcard lead.

To end up 75-87, they now have to go 29-43 the rest of the way. That's .403 baseball. That's pretty bad.

Of course, since the fast start, they've played .388 baseball, so how hard is this to imagine?

They should be sellers at the trade deadline, because they suck.
   51.     Hey Gurl Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4185730)
"You want to trade me where?! Do you know what their July record looks like year after year? My, uh, arm hurts..."

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