|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, July 07, 2012
Duquette is back!! The source, an executive with another big-league club, said the Orioles appear to be the most aggressive suitor currently for Greinke, the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner who is a free-agent at the end of the season.
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to
robneyer
for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: OMNICHATTER for May 19, 2013 (64 - 6:29pm, May 19)Last: botemanNewsblog: Draft Features Rarest of Prospects: Redheads (83 - 6:28pm, May 19)Last: Greg (U)KNewsblog: Hal Steinbrenner calls tickets 'affordable' (16 - 6:27pm, May 19)Last: Dag Nabbit has the talking pillowNewsblog: MLB hoping for large replay expansion in 2014 (50 - 6:24pm, May 19)Last: Ray (RDP)Newsblog: [OTP-May] Politico: Congressional baseball game, May 1, 1926 (3335 - 6:14pm, May 19)Last: Greg (U)KNewsblog: OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013 (946 - 6:11pm, May 19)Last: tshipmanNewsblog: Murray Chass: ARE RED SOX REELING ALREADY? (11 - 6:00pm, May 19)Last: Ray (RDP)Newsblog: OT: The Soccer Thread, May 2013 (884 - 5:53pm, May 19)Last: Arnett Mead (Arjun)Newsblog: Holmes: Where does Miguel Cabrera rank among Tiger greats? (33 - 5:45pm, May 19)Last: TJNewsblog: SoE (Megdal): It's Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles (25 - 5:35pm, May 19)Last: Walt DavisNewsblog: Cafardo: Dustin Pedroia the best second baseman in MLB? (89 - 5:30pm, May 19)Last: Ray (RDP)Newsblog: Weiner: The Supreme Court Judge and the Curt Flood Case reenactment (2 - 1:17pm, May 19)Last: bobmNewsblog: BtBS: Kevin Gregg Re-emerges in Chicago (3 - 1:00pm, May 19)Last: rlcNewsblog: Hochman: Dallas Green still tells it like it is (8 - 12:20pm, May 19)Last: bobmNewsblog: Hold tight on that Moreland Express | Dallas-Fort Worth Sports News - Sports News on the Dall... (3 - 12:06pm, May 19)Last: SG
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. boteman Posted: July 07, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4175351)No, the Orioles have a legitimate desperate need of a starting pitcher if they're going to continue to contend for the playoffs in the second half. In the last several days they've demoted three-fifth of their starting rotation to Norfolk.
Lame. They've got a one and a half game lead on a better team with massive injury problems, a 3 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems and a 3.5 game lead on a better team with massive injury problems. The swing from Hunter to Greinke, with a possible break out from Tillman makes them a .500 or so team and gives em a shot to be in the hunt down the stretch.
Obviously it depends on the price (obviously you don't trade Bundy, they are better off just bringing him up), but if the O's aren't going to at least make a run at the second wild card in these circumstances, what's the point? I mean, going for it now is exactly how you show the players and fans that you are serious and that's why you hire Buck Showalter. Not to punt when you are up on some flawed teams because of your pythag.
I don't think there's a real threat Duquette plays it safe however.
This. So long as Bundy and Machado are off-limits, it makes sense for the O's to go for it. Baseball is littered with mediocre teams that made a run in September and October and those flags fly forever. O's fans have suffered for so long and prospects fail more often than not, so if you're in this position you need to make a run for it because you don't know when this will happen again.
Therein lies the problem. They're in a division with three teams that, even with the injury problems, are better than they are. And for the wild cards they have to compete with a fourth team (Anaheim) that is also better than they are. A lot better, actually.
Shoring up some weaknesses by trading a few low-minors arms for some veterans is fine. Paying what a half-season of Zack Grienke's services is likely to cost would be ill-advised, I think.
I'm not really sure that the Jays are better than the O's with their current rotation. The Red Sox, sans Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury (not sure when he comes back), Buccholz, and Crawford could lose a lot of ground in the next week or two when the schedule is fairly tough. The Rays can't hit without Longoria and Joyce. This is as bad as the rest of the division will be for the foreseeable future and the O's have a lead with half a season left to play. They need to take advantage of it.
Agreed, the Angels are much better with Superman leading off. But they only need that second wild card.
Shoring up some weaknesses by trading a few low-minors arms for some veterans is fine. Paying what a half-season of Zack Grienke's services is likely to cost would be ill-advised, I think.
Of course, it all depends on the price. They have some a week or two to figure it out. See if Tillman can actually pitch, see if the team stays ahead immediately after the break, and get a full understanding of what it will cost before they pull the trigger.
While Baltimore has some fine young talent, much of it hasn't reached the majors yet. If Duquette can trade other, non-essential pieces to Milwaukee for Greinke, the Orioles are a legitimate wild-card factor. But you better be certain you can keep him past 2012. It would embarrass Baltimore fans if Zach headed to the other end of the Parkway for 2013, a la Greg Maddux joining the Braves after they had won two division titles without him. (And no, I'm not saying Greinke's a Maddux by any stretch of the imagination.)
I would be shocked if Greinke re-signed with the Orioles. But Greinke is known for being idiosyncratic, and the Orioles have money to throw around, so who knows.
Aside from Bundy and Machado, I don't think the O's have a ton of minor league talent. I think most of those pitchers they were banking on have already come up and struggled and most are likely to never pan out. All the more reason to go for it now, because I'm not all that convinced there is that mythical window coming up for them.
What if the price is Arrieta, Matusz and somebody like Schoop?
The Orioles had a fantastic start to the season - after the games of May 19th, they were 2 games ahead in first place, with a record of 27-14. They are 18-24 since then. They've gone 16-6 in one run games, 9-2 in extra inning games.
I've said the whole season that Orioles will end up winning about 75 games, which means they'll have to go 30-49 the rest of the way. That's pretty bad, but would you bet the over or under on the team's ability to win 81 games?
I guess I'm saying that they team could trade for pitching help, and they still probably aren't making the playoffs.
Then they should probably pass and find a cheaper option.
The best bang for their buck is probably to go after average to below average starters. That gives nearly the same shot of sneaking into a wild card spot without compromising their talent base too much going forward. Although I do agree that they are well behind the rest of their division over the long term, so a marginal win this year could be worth giving up quite a few wins from 2013-2017.
I do think Duquette will be willing to trade at least one out of the group of Arrieta, Tillman, Matusz, and Britton and Schoop. Duquette will also probably look to move a bullpen arm and/or one of their marginal 1B/DH bats in a separate trade to try to pick up some sweeteners.
This Orioles team has been roughly a .500 team over their last 162 games and with a couple trades I think they are probably a roughly .500 talent team. Given where they are sitting right now, that would probably give them a better than 1-in-3 shot at the playoffs. I'll take that.
Over, rough Pythagoras has them at 82.
I feel like boogieing on down to the Doobie Brothers and the Knack!
Given that they're in the AL East, yeah, about 95 sounds right, anyway. It's not a good team.
Sorry, that was a pretty low content post. The Orioles have a few very good players (assuming Adam Jones is legit, which I think he is) but a weak infield and a really bad rotation. I think if they're roughly .500 their past 162, then they're overachieving.
I think they clearly have more talent than they've had over the last five years or so, when they were losing 95 games a year. 40% of a rotation (Hammel and Chen) is more than they've had in a long time, the bullpen is very good, and Jones is their best position player since...Ripken? Alomar?
That means he'll be available to pitch on Tuesday after all.
What a horseshit call.
Heck, he should be available to pitch tomorrow. Then again, the umpire that threw him out will be behind the plate tomorrow as well.
It's not like they're the first team that's ever done it.
Or since the surprising resurgence of Melvin Mora...?
But they're also not the worst team in the American League, which they'd have to be to think it's reasonable to expect them to go 30-49 the rest of the way.
It would never even have occurred to me to think about it making sense for the Orioles to add Greinke -- as a fan, I"m focused on "will we hold this together and have a winning season." The idea that the Orioles could contend for a playoff spot hadn't even really crossed my mind; I guess at this point I'd say it's unlikely, but not as out of the question as I'd imagined, and for Orioles + Greinke; well, still well-below 50/50 this team could make the playoffs (let alone advance) but the argument that a team on the bubble which is 6 games over its Pythag should take advantage of that good fortune is a solid one.
He wasn't arguing a call; he just spiked the ball in frustration. He wasn't talking to or even looking at the umpire.
Here's the play. The umpire needs to take a forced vacation for that stunt.
ron states in the press conference after the game that the ump told him he tossed greinke because zack "showed him up"
for the record this is a now west crew
brewers in the clubhouse told the press that they expect their strike zone to be huge tomorrow since this ump has the plate tomorrow
bud has to wake up. umpire problem is spiraling out of control
Here we are on July 15th, and the Orioles, who were 45-38 at the time of the above writing, are now 46-42. They've lost four of their next five. In order to end up 75-87, they'll have to go 29-45 the rest of the way. They are 19-28 since their fast start - which is about the pace they'll have to maintain to go 29-45 the rest of the way. Don't worry, Orioles fans - I have full confidence in their ability to meet this challenge!
And yet still in line for the second wild card. What a cromulent idea Bud.
1) Fall to 46-43;
2) Fall out of the 2nd WC lead (Detroit will be 47-43; Baltimore, Oakland, and Cleveland will all be 46-43; the Red Sox and Rays will be 46-44; the Blue Jays will be 45-45);
3) Have the second-worst run differential in the American League, behind only the Twins;
4) Make my prediction of 75 wins seem just a little more doable - they now have to go 29-44 the rest of the way to finish 75-87. Their Pyth projection before tonight's beatdown was that of a 74-win team; tonight just slides them further down.
They suck.
Orioles lose again. They were 27-14, and have gone 19-30 since then. They are now out of the wildcard lead.
To end up 75-87, they now have to go 29-43 the rest of the way. That's .403 baseball. That's pretty bad.
Of course, since the fast start, they've played .388 baseball, so how hard is this to imagine?
They should be sellers at the trade deadline, because they suck.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main