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Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Orioles match club record with 107th loss, 5-0 to Blue Jays before tiny home crowd

Their dubious destiny nearly set, this year’s Orioles team will very likely go down in history as the worst in franchise history, an ugly distinction for a team that owns a proud 65-year history in Baltimore.

This day sneaked up on no one, and it’s now not a matter of whether they will have that title, but how bad the ending will be over the final two weeks of the season.

In terms of losses, they are there. With their next defeat, the Orioles set themselves apart in a way no one wants after losing their 107th game of the season, tying the team record, with a 5-0 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night at Camden Yards.

Interesting to consider how fast the collapse can come when it does- we’re only two years removed from Zach Britton spending the Wild-Card Game sitting on the bench.

 

QLE Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:06 AM | 59 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: futility, losing streak, orioles, things fall apart

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   1. Chris Fluit Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:37 AM (#5746308)
This has been an awful year for the Orioles (and for Orioles fans). But after reading the headline, I was curious as to how this season compared to the awfulness that was the St. Louis Browns. The current O's may have the most losses, but did a Browns team have a worse winning percentage in a shorter season?

First off, the Orioles did not actually set a franchise record. At least, not yet. I apparently skimmed the part in the excerpt that mentioned the team's 65 year history in Baltimore. The pre-Baltimore Browns had 4 seasons with 107 or more losses. The 1910 team went 47-107 for a .305 winning percentage. The 1911 team followed that up by going 45-107 for .296 (hooray for rainouts that didn't need to be replayed!). The Browns then set a new team record in 1937 by going 46-108 for a .299 percentage. And finally, the 1939 team went 43-111.

This year's team should breeze past that 111 loss mark considering they have 12 games left to play. However, this year's .287 winning percentage is a hair better than 1939's .279. Yikes! That's bad.
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5746311)
Interesting to consider how fast the collapse can come when it does- we’re only two years removed from Zach Britton spending the Wild-Card Game sitting on the bench.

No kidding. For all of the complaining about tanking, the Orioles were a playoff team as recently as 2016 and were ostensibly going for at least another wild card this year by signing a free agent like Alex Cobb. (The Royals were also signing vets rather than straight up tanking.) I never thought they would be a playoff team. The rotation was just too thin and the line-up too old. But I never expected them to collapse this hard.

   3. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5746314)
No kidding. For all of the complaining about tanking, the Orioles were a playoff team as recently as 2016 and were ostensibly going for at least another wild card this year by signing a free agent like Alex Cobb.


And Andrew Cashner! Combined record of 9-30 in 55 starts. At least they've been healthy, and also bad.

Cashner was signed Feb 15 and Cobb was signed March 21. I feel like he would-be playoff team that suddenly gets off the fence at the 11th hour and starts signing middling free agents is always one to bet against.
   4. Rally Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5746315)
60 games out of first - a record for the division era. And the amazing part is they haven't played the toughest part of their schedule yet.

After Toronto leaves they play 3 against the Yankees, 3 against the Red Sox, and 4 against Houston.

Those teams won't have much to play for so the Orioles might get a few wins against September callups. Maybe. There's an excellent chance here of 115-117 losses.
   5. Rally Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:47 AM (#5746317)
Cobb was so bad early on that nothing could prevent his season stats from stinking. But's he's been good in the second half. 10 starts, 59 innings, 2.56 ERA.
   6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5746321)
The rotation was just too thin and the line-up too old.

The Orioles have received exactly one start from a pitcher with a season ERA+ over 100. That is kind of amazing. And though nobody would have expected the rotation to be good Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Kevin Gausman, and Andrew Cashner are all guys who would have been in somebody's rotation to start the season.
   7. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 18, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5746327)
One problem is that the rotation blew up so badly that the team failed for a long time to realize how bad the lineup was.
   8. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 18, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5746331)
Cobb was so bad early on that nothing could prevent his season stats from stinking. But's he's been good in the second half. 10 starts, 59 innings, 2.56 ERA.


Not saying I'd necessarily do it - but Chatwood/Cobb would be an interesting challenge trade... Cobb makes about a mil or so less - and has an extra year.
   9. flournoy Posted: September 18, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5746357)
Well, Gausman and Brach have done pretty well so far with the Braves. Who knows, maybe there's something to be said for getting away from being on that Orioles pitching staff.

EDIT: I had no idea he was signed for this long, but it looks like Chris Davis has four more years left on his contract at $92M to go along with his .172/.246/.303 line this season. Holy crap.
   10. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5746369)
Not saying I'd necessarily do it - but Chatwood/Cobb would be an interesting challenge trade... Cobb makes about a mil or so less - and has an extra year.
I would bring Cobb to Wrigley, walk him out to the mound, and have Caratini squat behind the plate and a batter stand in. Then I'd give Cobb a baseball, and have him throw two pitches to Caratini. If either one of them was a strike, I'd do the trade in a second.

Assuming the rocket into the sun plan is definitely a no-go...which I still disagree with.
   11. RJ in TO Posted: September 18, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5746383)
Do the Orioles have a chance of notable improvement next year? A quick browse of the upper levels of their minor league system doesn't seem to show a lot in the way of immediate assistance.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5746397)
The Orioles looked lke a sub-.500 team when the season started then had a bunch of guys underperform. I won't be surprised if that's it for Showalter in Baltimore. It's a bad team but it's hard to say he got anyone playing to their ability.

To RJ's question, no they look pretty ######. The one bit of good news is they are SO bad that really they should be able to improve next year by not completely ####### up the off-season. By WAR their best returning player is Jonathan Villar and after him it's Renato Nunez. That's horrifying. They have four position players who have amassed over 1.0 WAR this year; two were traded (Machado and Schoop), one was acquired in the Schoop deal (Villar) and soon to be free agent Craig Gentry who I suspect won't receive a qualifying offer.
   13. Spahn Insane Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5746398)
Not saying I'd necessarily do it - but Chatwood/Cobb would be an interesting challenge trade... Cobb makes about a mil or so less - and has an extra year.

If I'm the Cubs? In a heartbeat. But what's in it for the Orioles? (Though it'd be entertaining to see a team that's failed to develop Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Kevin Gausman, et al in recent years try to fix Chatwood.)
   14. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5746405)
I won't be surprised if that's it for Showalter in Baltimore.
If he wasn't fired after the Britton thing, he has to have some dirt on people.
   15. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5746425)
Here is a good description of your potential 2019 Orioles.

They are optimistic about an outfield of Joey Rickard, Cedric Mullins, and DJ Stewart. They are still set on Chance Sisco as the catcher of the future. For the infield they are set only with Villar, and subpar veterans Tim Beckham and Jace Peterson playing major roles, and trying out various prospects none of whom are sure things.

As for Chris Davis, hey, if he doesn't have the worst season of all time, he should improve.
   16. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5746426)
If Showalter gets canned in Baltimore, that only means that they will either win the World Series the next season, or will be there twice in the next 5 years.

NYY: Fired Showalter in 1995, won the World Series in 1996
ARI: Fired Showalter in 2000, won the World Series in 2001
TEX: Fired Showalter in 2006, appeared in the World Series in 2010 and 2011

Can "Good Luck Buck" work his magic on the Orioles franchise as well?
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5746432)
First off, the Orioles did not actually set a franchise record. At least, not yet. I apparently skimmed the part in the excerpt that mentioned the team's 65 year history in Baltimore. The pre-Baltimore Browns had 4 seasons with 107 or more losses. The 1910 team went 47-107 for a .305 winning percentage. The 1911 team followed that up by going 45-107 for .296 (hooray for rainouts that didn't need to be replayed!). The Browns then set a new team record in 1937 by going 46-108 for a .299 percentage. And finally, the 1939 team went 43-111.

This year's team should breeze past that 111 loss mark considering they have 12 games left to play. However, this year's .287 winning percentage is a hair better than 1939's .279. Yikes! That's bad.


The Team that Baseball Forgot is an excellent documentary on the Browns. Highly recommend.
   18. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5746434)
Not saying I'd necessarily do it - but Chatwood/Cobb would be an interesting challenge trade... Cobb makes about a mil or so less - and has an extra year.

If I'm the Cubs? In a heartbeat. But what's in it for the Orioles? (Though it'd be entertaining to see a team that's failed to develop Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Kevin Gausman, et al in recent years try to fix Chatwood.)


Money - I misstated - Cobb makes about a mil or two more than Chatwood... plus the extra year. Hence - a straight-up swap looks like it would save the O's about ~15 mil.
   19. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5746438)
It's hard to call a guy with a 9-year career a bust, but Cashner really feels like he should have been better. W-L isn't everything and he mostly has played on bad Padre teams, but he's 33 games under .500 lifetime!
   20. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5746444)
Hence - a straight-up swap looks like it would save the O's about ~15 mil.
How much would a half-share of a two-seater rocket into the sun cost?
   21. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5746446)
It's hard to call a guy with a 9-year career a bust, but Cashner really feels like he should have been better. W-L isn't everything and he mostly has played on bad Padre teams, but he's 33 games under .500 lifetime!


Hindsight is everything, but I recall feeling really uncertain about the Cashner-Rizzo trade when it went down because I was convinced Cashner was gonna be one of their front of the rotation guys for years to come.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5746447)
It's hard to call a guy with a 9-year career a bust, but Cashner really feels like he should have been better. W-L isn't everything and he mostly has played on bad Padre teams, but he's 33 games under .500 lifetime!

2011 24 Chicago Cubs $427,500 0.126
2012 25 San Diego Padres $486,100 1.126 contracts
2013 26 San Diego Padres $500,800 2.126 contracts
2014 27 San Diego Padres $2,400,000 3.126 contracts
2015 28 San Diego Padres $4,050,000 4.126 contracts
2016 29 San Diego Padres $7,150,000 5.126
2017 30 Texas Rangers $10,000,000 6.126 contracts
2018 31 Baltimore Orioles $6,500,000 7.126
2019 32 Baltimore Orioles $9,500,000
2020 33 Baltimore Orioles *$10,000,000 $10M Team Option option becomes guaranteed with 340 total IP over 2018-19 seasons.
Earliest Free Agent: 2020
Career to date (may be incomplete) $31,514,400 Does not include future salaries ($9.5M)


Man I wish I could fail like that.
   23. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 18, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5746460)
Hindsight is everything, but I recall feeling really uncertain about the Cashner-Rizzo trade when it went down because I was convinced Cashner was gonna be one of their front of the rotation guys for years to come.


Ditto - though, less convinced about Cashner (I always thought/worried he'd end up in a closer role) than I was unconvinced about Rizzo.
   24. Spahn Insane Posted: September 18, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5746475)
Hindsight is everything, but I recall feeling really uncertain about the Cashner-Rizzo trade when it went down because I was convinced Cashner was gonna be one of their front of the rotation guys for years to come.

Man, my reaction was the opposite. Cashner already was having arm issues at the time of the trade. Injury prone starting prospect for a 22 year old stud hitter who's dominated the minors? Sign me up.
   25. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 18, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5746600)
and soon to be free agent Craig Gentry who I suspect won't receive a qualifying offer.
DFA already.

EDIT: And released.
   26. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 18, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5746629)
So you're saying I'm right about the QO?
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 18, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5746693)
Fun fact: Even if the O's lose all 12 of their remaining games, they still can't sink as low as the 1962 Mets in terms of games lost or W-L%. But they're almost a cinch to finish more games behind the Red Sox than the Mets were behind the Giants.
   28. Rusty Priske Posted: September 18, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5746704)
Change their name to the Spiders?
   29. SandyRiver Posted: September 18, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5746737)
This year's team should breeze past that 111 loss mark considering they have 12 games left to play. However, this year's .287 winning percentage is a hair better than 1939's .279. Yikes! That's bad.

If they can lose 10 of those 12, they finish with a PCT of .278. Let's go for the record!

#27: But the Mets managed to sink another half game behind after their season was over. The Orioles aren't going to do that.
   30. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 18, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5746786)
So you're saying I'm right about the QO?
Probably.
   31. donlock Posted: September 18, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5746951)
Headline is misleading and hurtful. Fans appeared to be of normal size. Just weren't very many of them.

Why are Orioles talking about cutting Caleb Joseph, to save money? He isn't a great hitter but starting a season with a team full of young, developing pitchers with two rookie catchers doesn't seem like a great move.He appears to be a positive influence and communicates with the staff. If he doubled his salary in arbitration to $3K, would that be a huge cost for the team budget?

The O's carried and played Craig Gentry and Danny Valencia during the season. When they were finally put on waivers, no one claimed them. That is, the other teams said: why are these guys getting regular minutes on a last place team? Don't you have AAA people to try out and get at bats? DD: Well, they don't make much money so we kept them on the team. But why did you play them? We have no minor league position players. Oh.
   32. DFA Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:52 AM (#5747927)
Do the Orioles have a chance of notable improvement next year?


They will be terrible next year, but the longer term prospects are difficult to assess. The Orioles are lacking in the top 10 prospect department (only Yusniel Diaz and maybe DL Hall really top 50ish probably), but they do have several more interesting prospects. It's possible in 2019 there will be a number of young players demonstrating sufficient growing pains. They have something of a glut of young OF players, all with some flaws (Diaz, Hays, Mullins, Stewart, McKenna), an infield prospect in the form of Ryan Mountcastle and several compelling pitching prospects (Luis Ortiz (Schoop), Donovan Tate (Britton), Dean Kramer (Machado), Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther plus Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy and Mychal Givens who are young players but getting closer to free agency. Like every other team, they also have a fair amount of lottery tickets in A ball. But again, not signing players from Latin America for a few years can really set you back. There have been a lot of terrible Oriole teams during the Angelos reign, but at least the 2019 team could be a step in the right direction.
   33. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:13 AM (#5747928)
imagine if they didn't get to go 3-1 vs the Mets in their midseason of horribles (11-1 start and nice stretch run)
   34. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:18 AM (#5748003)
The O's system is definitely on the upswing but it still has a ways to go - it was awful.
   35. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5748006)
This year's team should breeze past that 111 loss mark considering they have 12 games left to play. However, this year's .287 winning percentage is a hair better than 1939's .279. Yikes! That's bad.

If they can lose 10 of those 12, they finish with a PCT of .278. Let's go for the record!

Well, there's at least one category where they've topped their 1939 ancestors: It only took them until April 4th to top the Browns in home attendance. By now they've drawn 1,494,822 to the 1939 team's 109,159. That team's crowds ranged from 386 to 15,328, and they had 26 home games with attendance under 1,000.
   36. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5748007)
The O's system is definitely on the upswing but it still has a ways to go - it was awful.
Workers of the Underworld unite----you have no place to go but up!
   37. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5748008)
Headline is misleading and hurtful. Fans appeared to be of normal size.
No, I think you misinterpreted. Looks to me like they had a promotion for the people who live in those super tiny houses like you see on TV.
   38. Rally Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5748009)
Orioles should have a top prospect in their system by the end of 2019. The history of players picked 1-1 is pretty good.

At least by expected WAR value of the pick, a 1-1 is far and away the best pick, with more distance between 1 and 2 than 2 to 3. But checking a 20 year period 1995-2014, looks like 12 good players (mostly stars, Kris Benson a solid MLB career) and 8 busts. Since these are the Orioles, a 40% bust rate is not going to make fans too confidant.

I choose those years as cutoffs because it's too early to say what will become of 2015 (Swanson) and later picks. Players picked before that have already reached star level (Harper, Correa, Cole) no matter what they do from here on out, or have already established themselves as busts. I guess we can't close the book on Aiken, but he walked more batters than he struck out in A ball this year, so it doesn't look promising. Since Mark Appel has retired, we know that pick didn't work out.
   39. bunyon Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5748032)
I'm in between classes (and lazy): has there ever been a draft which produced zero stars? That is, very often when the 1-1 busts, it's because some idiot team overlooked a future HOFer and everyone, at the time, knew they'd screwed up. But are there drafts where, even if you have the first pick, there really isn't anyone to pick?
   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5748079)
I'm in between classes (and lazy): has there ever been a draft which produced zero stars? That is, very often when the 1-1 busts, it's because some idiot team overlooked a future HOFer and everyone, at the time, knew they'd screwed up. But are there drafts where, even if you have the first pick, there really isn't anyone to pick?

I think there's a third category. There may have been future stars that emerge from the latter rounds, but nobody thought they were anything special.

So, the first round could bust, and the draft still produce a bunch of talent that everyone missed on.
   41. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5748095)
It looks like the best player chosen in the June 2003 draft (by WAR) was Nick Markakis (7th overall pick), which isn't very exciting. He's followed closely by Adam Jones (32nd pick) and Matt Kemp (6th round).

Coincidentally or not, this research has relevance to the Orioles.
   42. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5748096)
On the topic of the draft and potential stars, I was puzzling over the fact that the Rangers seem to be both terrible at the big-league level and to have remarkably few prospects in the minors. I took at look at first-round picks (including first-round-supplemental, because that's how B-Ref lists them) from 2004-13, kind of arbitrarily (a ten-year span, one where even the latest players could now be making some impact in the majors). Here's the WAR total so far of first-round picks over that decade, AL teams only. I wasn't imagining things:

LA of A 121.7
Detroit 117.6
Tampa Bay 108
Kansas City 96
Chicago 83.5
Boston 81.5
Oakland 68.1
Toronto 66.9 (median)
Minnesota 66.5
Baltimore 65.7
New York 63.5
Houston 61
Cleveland 43.8
Seattle 31.4
Texas 25.4

Now, obviously there are other ways to acquire talent (the later rounds, international signings, the waiver and internal draft processes), but it helps if any of your first-round picks pan out, and the Rangers' never seem to.

   43. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5748115)
Rangers first-round picks through the years (ones I have heard of only)

1966: Tom Grieve
1969: Jeff Burroughs
1973: David Clyde (famous for being a bust)
1981: Ron Darling
1984: Oddibe McDowell
1985: Bobby Witt
1986: Kevin Brown
1987: Brian Bohanon, Bill Haselman, Mark Petkovsek
1991: Benji Gil
1992: Rick Helling
1996: R.A. Dickey
1998: Carlos Peña
1999: Colby Lewis
2001: Mark Teixeira (51.8 WAR)
2003: John Danks (20.4 WAR in 247 career starts while never being noticed by anyone outside Chicago)
2005: John Mayberry Jr.
2007: Tommy Hunter
2008: Justin Smoak
2009: Tanner Scheppers
2010: Mike Olt (Joe Sheehan spent a couple months convinced he was going to be a superstar)
2012: Lewis Brinson, Joey Gallo

I'm surprised all those post-Danks players even add up to 25.4 WAR.
   44. Rally Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5748123)
#42 interesting - so the Angels have done an average job drafting in the first round even if you take out the biggest outlier.

Their 2009 draft also included Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards, Pat Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs. That's got to be one of the best drafts ever, but still a long way off from Detroit's 1976 draft.
   45. . . . . . . Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5748124)
LA of A 121.7
Detroit 117.6
Tampa Bay 108
Kansas City 96
Chicago 83.5
Boston 81.5
Oakland 68.1
Toronto 66.9 (median)
Minnesota 66.5
Baltimore 65.7
New York 63.5
Houston 61
Cleveland 43.8

Seattle 31.4
Texas 25.4

Now, obviously there are other ways to acquire talent (the later rounds, international signings, the waiver and internal draft processes), but it helps if any of your first-round picks pan out, and the Rangers' never seem to.



Doesn't your list make the opposite point? Looks like there's no relationship between 1st round success and having a good team.
   46. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5748126)
I'm surprised all those post-Danks players even add up to 25.4 WAR


It's almost entirely Hunter, Smoak, and Gallo. Hunter is the best of those three by bWAR. That's depressing.

And it is not like the Rangers have been cleaning up in the other high rounds. Their best second-round pick 2004-13 was Robbie Ross, and their best #3 was Taylor Teagarden. Their best picks in any rounds, in that decade, were Chris Davis and Kyle Hendricks, who have had some good years but you'd have to call minor stars at best. Most teams are able to find a true star player or two via the draft over the course of a decade.
   47. Rally Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5748131)
And my last post takes me completely off topic. What would have happened if the Tigers signed Ozzie Smith after drafting him in 1976? With perfect hindsight you move Trammell to third and have HOF quality infield play at 3 positions for the next 2 decades. But Trammell didn't hit like you'd expect a 3B to hit until 1983?

Would they have gone with that plan or traded someone along the way? Then again, Trammell did outhit the actual Tiger 3B (Aurelio Rodriguez and Tom Brookens) from 1978-82, so maybe they would have let the plan unfold.

If Trammell were to play 3B as well as he played short, and adding Ozzie's glove to the lineup, you probably knock 50 points off Jack Morris's ERA and he gets into the HOF first ballot.
   48. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5748132)
If Trammell were to play 3B as well as he played short, and adding Ozzie's glove to the lineup, you probably knock 50 points off Jack Morris's ERA and he gets into the HOF first ballot.
No, the only thing that would have caused Morris to give up fewer runs would have been to reduce the Tigers' offense.
   49. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5748133)
Doesn't your list make the opposite point? Looks like there's no relationship between 1st round success and having a good team


That's a fair point, but as I said, it means you have to do really well at all the other ways of getting talent. You're putting yourself in a hole. The Mariners would seem to be another example.

Also, the list is something of a snapshot. Houston is low, but their 61 includes Springer, Correa, and Bregman, all still young players. The Indians are low, but Lindor is in their total; Aaron Judge is in the Yankees' total. The Rangers never draft anybody like that.
   50. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5748135)
Doesn't your list make the opposite point? Looks like there's no relationship between 1st round success and having a good team.


Not really. Did you think this was a good point? BDC's chosen set of years is very poorly suited to investigating the causes of team success in 2018.

BDC's cutoffs include a lot of years that are now virtually irrelevant, and it misses people like Bregman and Benintendi and Matt Chapman, and undervalues the contributions of Correa, Springer, etc...

Several of those teams at the top had nice runs of success. The Gordon-Moustakas-Hosmer Royals and the Longoria-Price Rays are most certainly not proof that the first round is irrelevant.
   51. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5748146)
Ah, good point, Fish, Bregman was drafted by Houston after 2013. Thanks.
   52. . . . . . . Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5748149)
Verily, when I think of the teams of the last decade, I think of the:
LA of A 121.7
Detroit 117.6
Tampa Bay 108
Kansas City 96
Chicago 83.5
   53. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5748152)
The Tigers' outlier is Verlander. Starting with Verlander, they built a team that won four straight division titles and a pennant within the last decade. They did fine. Fish covered Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The Angels, they are simply doomed. Below that, the middle teams are actually pretty tightly bunched together from 60-80 over ten years, some doing well and some not with their middling returns. Some of the lower teams (well, Cleveland, mostly) turned a corner and started to get luckier or smarter in more recent drafts.

My point was mainly that the Rangers have so consistently and completely failed at an important part of team-building that they find themselves in last-place with no major-league stars and nobody in the pipeline.

Which probably means that they will win another pennant next year :-D
   54. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5748156)
The Rays were a consistent 90 game winner for years (and are still good). The Royals had a nice run, won the WS, lost another by a hair. Tigers had a great run.

Meanwhile, some of our currently good teams (Astros and Indians) were mediocre or awful during the relevant years.

You don't look at the 2004 draft to explain why teams are good in 2018. You don't ignore the 2014 draft either.

Beyond that, BDC's point was couched in such modest terms as to be literally unobjectionable. He said "it helps if any of your first round picks pan out."

>coke
   55. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5748241)
Rangers first-round picks through the years (ones I have heard of only)

Others:
1989: Donald Harris. All-conference cornerback from Texas Tech they picked while Frank Thomas was still on the board. Great athlete. Lousy baseball player.

1990: Dan Smith. Oft-injured pitcher who prompted a long-running joke on a Rangers LISTSERV I was on when spring training began about how it was February and that meant Dan Smith was 100% healthy and in the best shape of his life. If he made it out of spring training unscathed, it typically wasn't long until he would be shut down for the season yet again with more arm ailments.

1995: Jonathan Johnson. Dan Smith II.

2000: Scott Heard. High school catcher who didn't even hit .300 as a senior. Scouts claimed he was defensively ready for the majors from day 1. Another victim of NLoCD. You can teach defense a lot easier than you can teach hitting.

2007: Blake Beavan. Local high school kid with a big arm and by all reports a bigger ego who couldn't/wouldn't adjust to the difference between pitching to high school hitters and professional hitters.
   56. Rally Posted: September 20, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5748301)
No, the only thing that would have caused Morris to give up fewer runs would have been to reduce the Tigers' offense.


Ha, good one. Ozzie Smith would have pulled that off too, at least pre-1982 Ozzie.
   57. Rally Posted: September 20, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5748303)
After that Ozzie's hitting was at least as good as Tiger 3B. Best Tiger 3B by OPS+ from 1978-1995 was Darnell Coles, 112 in 1986.
   58. dlf Posted: September 20, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5748309)
2003: John Danks (20.4 WAR in 247 career starts while never being noticed by anyone outside Chicago)


Being noticed by 1/3 of the Pistol Annies down in Nashville is a pretty good deal.

Danks' spouse: Ashley Monroe
   59. escabeche Posted: September 20, 2018 at 05:50 PM (#5748340)
I was sort of depressed to see the Orioles not ranking high there, given how bad they were for much of 2004-2013. But you know, there's a way in which it makes sense. They were consistently bad, but never CATASTROPHICALLY bad. They always lost 90 games, but never 100. They never had a top-2 pick, and the one year they had a #3 pick, they got Machado. They had a stretch of 6 top-5 picks in a row and in that stretch they signed Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Dylan Bundy, Machado, and Kevin Gausman, with Matt Hobgood being the only one who didn't make it to the majors. So one superstar, one respectable career, and two guys, Bundy and Gausman, who could still put up a lot of value.

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