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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Orioles’ pitching crosses 100 homers allowed mark in 48th game

The Orioles’ pitching staff is on pace to obliterate the Reds’ record of 258 homers allowed in the season. When O’s starter David Hess yielded a three-run home run to Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier in the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s game, that marked the 100th homer given up by a Baltimore pitcher this season. They have played 48 games so far, putting them on pace to allow 338.

The homer was Frazier’s second of the night. He had also gone yard with a runner on in the third inning. Gary Sánchez opened the scoring in the first inning with a three-run blast of his own. As of this writing, the Yankees are leading 11-3.

On the bright side, they all have a promising future in pitching batting practice….

 

QLE Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:00 AM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bad pitchers, home run derby, orioles

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   1. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5844655)
Some of these numbers are pushing the boundaries of what should be possible.

22 Oriole pitchers have allowed at least 1 homer
Alex Cobb: 9 homers in 12 1/3 IP
David Hess: 17! dingers in 45 1/3

John Means qualifies as their groundball guy, only 6 homers in 43 2/3 innings, 1.2 HR/9

In 1956, Robin Roberts had only a slightly higher rate, 1.4 per 9, in setting a record with 46 homers allowed. This record would stand for 30 years.

   2. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5844659)
The 1978 Orioles only gave up 107 home runs in the whole season. The 1992 Orioles only gave up 124.
   3. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5844665)
The 1972 Orioles only gave up 85 homers.
   4. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5844667)
But we're still on pace for almost 51 wins!
   5. TomH Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5844672)
But the 1972 season was 6 games shorter! :)
   6. Itchy Row Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5844677)
The Yankees have as many HR against the Orioles as the Marlins have against everybody.

Gleyber Torres has 8 HR in his 38 AB against the O's and 2 HR in his other 136 AB. 6 of his 11 walks have been against Baltimore.
   7. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5844707)
Can the Yankees buy Hess and farm him out to the Rays and Red Sox? How would this work?
   8. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5844709)
The 1978 Orioles only gave up 107 home runs in the whole season. The 1992 Orioles only gave up 124.

The 1972 Orioles allowed but 85, although it was in a strike-shortened 154 game season.
   9. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5844715)
The Yankees have as many HR against the Orioles as the Marlins have against everybody.
It's really a shame that the Marlins & Orioles don't play this year. They should do a postseason barnstorming tour and call it "The Resistible Force vs. The Movable Object".
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 22, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5844718)
It's really a shame that the Marlins & Orioles don't play this year. They should do a postseason barnstorming tour and call it "The Resistible Force vs. The Movable Object"


That's how draft position should be determined. Take the 10 worst teams, and seed them like the playoffs, except worst team gets best seed. Then whoever wins the tournament gets the #1 pick, WC losers get #9 and #10, etc.
   11. My name is RMc and I feel extremely affected Posted: May 22, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5844720)
Even the sillyball-era (1999-2004) Rockies never allowed more than 240 HR a year: 237, 221, 239, 225, 200 and 198, respectively.

22 Oriole pitchers have allowed at least 1 homer
Alex Cobb: 9 homers in 12 1/3 IP
David Hess: 17! dingers in 45 1/3


Geez, these guys serve up more meatballs than your local Italian restaurant...
   12. escabeche Posted: May 22, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5844737)
Just a lotta homers out there this year. If things proceed apace (they likely won't), Seattle will break the all-time HR allowed record too, and MLB will finish with 6353 HR total, well above 2017's record of 6105.
   13. bobm Posted: May 22, 2019 at 05:37 PM (#5844749)
Since 1920, through 48 games, only 5 teams have allowed at least one home run in more games than the 2019 Orioles:

                             
Rk    Tm Year #Matching  W  L
1    KCR 2000        42 20 22
                             
2    PIT 1996        41 14 27
2    MIN 1999        41 12 29
2    MIL 2003        41 14 27
2    DET 1996        41  9 32
                             
6    PHI 2017        40 13 27
6    MIL 2008        40 18 22
6    CHC 2000        40 15 25
6    BAL 2019        40  8 32


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/22/2019.

If you sort the first 300 "1st-48-game team seasons" list instead by total number of home runs given up, this year's Orioles come out way in front:

                                       
Rk     Tm Year #Matching  W  L W-L%  HR
1     BAL 2019        40  8 32 .200 100
2     DET 1996        41  9 32 .220  85
3     KCA 1964        38  7 31 .184  84
4     KCR 2000        42 20 22 .476  83
5     HOU 2000        38 11 27 .289  83
6     ARI 2010        39 12 27 .308  82
7     SEA 2019        34 11 23 .324  82
8     MIN 1995        37  9 28 .243  81
9     MIN 1999        41 12 29 .293  79
10    CIN 2016        38 11 27 .289  79
11    CHC 2000        40 15 25 .375  77
12    TBD 2000        38  9 29 .237  77
13    PHI 2017        40 13 27 .325  76
14    PHI 2009        38 21 17 .553  75
15    COL 2000        38 22 16 .579  74
16    MIL 2000        37 13 23 .361  74
17    ANA 2000        37 17 20 .459  74
18    KCR 2018        33  6 27 .182  73
19    SEA 2017        37 12 25 .324  72
20    TEX 2000        34 16 18 .471  72
21    PHI 2000        38 12 26 .316  71
22    CIN 2005        38 13 25 .342  71
23    KCR 2006        36  5 31 .139  71
24    HOU 2013        35  9 26 .257  71
25    CIN 2017        35 12 23 .343  71
26    STL 2019        34 13 21 .382  71
27    CHW 2019        34 14 20 .412  71
28    CAL 1987        34  9 25 .265  71
29    DET 1999        38 13 25 .342  70
30    MIN 1982        36  6 30 .167  70
31    HOU 2001        36 15 21 .417  70
32    MIL 2019        35 16 19 .457  70
33    MIN 1987        34 16 18 .471  70
34    LAA 2019        34 12 22 .353  70
35    TBD 2004        39 13 26 .333  69
36    MIN 2012        38 12 26 .316  69
37    MIN 2017        37 16 21 .432  69
38    MIL 1999        37 15 22 .405  69
39    CIN 2018        37 10 27 .270  69
40    CLE 1962        36 18 18 .500  69
41    SDP 2003        35  9 26 .257  69
42    KCA 1955        36 10 26 .278  68
43    BAL 2000        36 13 23 .361  68
44    TOR 2006        35 17 18 .486  68
45    SEA 1997        35 16 19 .457  68
46    NYY 1995        35 12 23 .343  68
47    NYY 2009        35 17 18 .486  68
48    BAL 2009        35 12 23 .343  68
49    TEX 1999        34 17 17 .500  68
50    DET 1987        34 16 18 .471  68
51    SFG 1996        33 12 21 .364  68
52    CIN 2003        33 13 20 .394  68
53    STL 2000        32 16 16 .500  68
54    MIL 2016        39 17 22 .436  67
55    LAA 2017        37 17 20 .459  67
56    SDP 2000        36 13 23 .361  67
57    MIN 1996        36 14 22 .389  67
58    MIN 2000        36 12 24 .333  67
59    MLN 1961        35 13 22 .371  67
60    BAL 2018        35  8 27 .229  67
61    TEX 2001        34 11 23 .324  67
62    CLE 1997        34 16 18 .471  67
63    CHW 1995        39 14 25 .359  66
64    NYM 2017        36 14 22 .389  66
65    MIN 2016        36 10 26 .278  66
66    KCR 2001        36 11 25 .306  66
67    HOU 2008        35 19 16 .543  66
68    COL 2004        35 10 25 .286  66
69    TEX 1987        34 12 22 .353  66
70    MIL 2003        41 14 27 .341  65
71    TBD 2003        36 11 25 .306  65
72    SEA 1998        36 14 22 .389  65
73    LAD 1999        35 15 20 .429  65
74    TEX 1994        34 11 23 .324  65
75    TBR 2016        34 10 24 .294  65
76    SFG 2019        34 11 23 .324  65
77    CIN 2006        34 20 14 .588  65
78    TOR 2003        32 14 18 .438  65
79    PIT 1996        41 14 27 .341  64
80    BAL 1994        39 20 19 .513  64
81    SFG 1999        36 17 19 .472  64
82    SEA 1987        36 15 21 .417  64
83    PHI 2005        36 14 22 .389  64
84    NYY 2019        36 21 15 .583  64
85    COL 2019        36 15 21 .417  64
86    CHW 1998        36 11 25 .306  64
87    TEX 2016        35 16 19 .457  64
88    LAD 2000        35 21 14 .600  64
89    BOS 2019        35 16 19 .457  64
90    PHI 2019        34 18 16 .529  64
91    BAL 1987        34 17 17 .500  64
92    ATL 2017        34 15 19 .441  64
93    STL 1954        33 14 19 .424  64
94    SEA 1999        33 15 18 .455  64
95    CHW 1987        33 13 20 .394  64
96    ARI 1998        38  5 33 .132  63
97    SDP 1977        37 13 24 .351  63
98    STL 2001        36 19 17 .528  63
99    TEX 2019        35 15 20 .429  63
100   WSA 1965        34 11 23 .324  63
101   OAK 1985        34 16 18 .471  63
102   MON 1970        34  9 25 .265  63
103   LAD 1958        34  8 26 .235  63
104   CHC 1999        34 17 17 .500  63
105   SDP 2017        33  7 26 .212  63
106   SDP 2015        33 14 19 .424  63
107   ATL 2019        33 13 20 .394  63
108   TBD 1999        32 13 19 .406  63
109   SDP 1987        32  7 25 .219  63
110   MIL 2008        40 18 22 .450  62
111   TOR 2018        39 18 21 .462  62
112   NYY 2012        39 18 21 .462  62
113   TBD 2007        38 15 23 .395  62
114   DET 1994        38 20 18 .526  62
115   TOR 2007        37 16 21 .432  62
116   WSN 2017        36 19 17 .528  62
117   TEX 2018        36 12 24 .333  62
118   COL 1996        36 16 20 .444  62
119   CLE 1996        35 21 14 .600  62
120   CLE 1987        34  8 26 .235  62
121   MIN 2018        33 11 22 .333  62
122   COL 2001        33 13 20 .394  62
123   STL 1994        37 17 20 .459  61
124   OAK 2018        37 17 20 .459  61
125   BRO 1956        36 17 19 .472  61
126   BAL 1999        36 12 24 .333  61
127   OAK 1996        35 15 20 .429  61
128   DET 1963        35 12 23 .343  61
129   CAL 1996        35 14 21 .400  61
130   MIN 1986        34 10 24 .294  61
131   MIL 2002        34  8 26 .235  61
132   BAL 2013        34 15 19 .441  61
133   TOR 2012        33 12 21 .364  61
134   SEA 2013        33  9 24 .273  61
135   NYM 1962        33  7 26 .212  61
136   TBR 2013        35 16 19 .457  60
137   MIN 1964        35 20 15 .571  60
138   LAA 2016        35 13 22 .371  60
139   CHW 2000        34 19 15 .559  60
140   BAL 2006        34 15 19 .441  60
141   TEX 2017        33 14 19 .424  60
142   BOS 1977        33 14 19 .424  60
143   STL 2003        32 14 18 .438  60
144   SEA 2006        36 18 18 .500  59
145   CLE 1999        36 22 14 .611  59
146   SFG 1958        35 18 17 .514  59
147   MIA 2017        35 14 21 .400  59
148   TOR 2015        34 13 21 .382  59
149   LAA 2006        34 11 23 .324  59
150   CIN 2004        34 17 17 .500  59
151   CIN 1953        34 13 20 .394  59
152   BAL 1995        34 14 20 .412  59
153   BAL 2017        34 15 19 .441  59
154   SDP 2019        33 13 20 .394  59
155   PIT 2016        33 16 17 .485  59
156   NYY 2016        33 14 19 .424  59
157   MIA 2019        33  6 27 .182  59
158   KCA 1962        33 11 22 .333  59
159   CHC 2017        33 14 19 .424  59
160   STL 1955        32 11 21 .344  59
161   SFG 1970        36 15 21 .417  58
162   ATL 1971        36 16 20 .444  58
163   PHI 2006        35 17 18 .486  58
164   MIL 2017        35 17 18 .486  58
165   CHW 2001        35 13 22 .371  58
166   CHC 1966        35  9 26 .257  58
167   BAL 2002        35 13 22 .371  58
168   STL 1996        34 13 21 .382  58
169   SEA 1995        34 13 21 .382  58
170   KCA 1956        34 11 23 .324  58
171   DET 2004        34 11 23 .324  58
172   COL 2012        34 12 22 .353  58
173   ARI 2014        34 11 23 .324  58
174   MIL 2013        33 11 22 .333  58
175   KCR 2013        33 11 22 .333  58
176   CIN 1959        33 13 20 .394  58
177   CIN 1954        33 12 21 .364  58
178   NYM 2019        37 15 22 .405  57
179   CHC 1962        36 10 26 .278  57
180   TBR 2009        35 16 19 .457  57
181   SDP 1990        35 15 20 .429  57
182   NYM 2000        35 17 18 .486  57
183   TBD 2001        34  5 29 .147  57
184   LAD 2019        34 20 14 .588  57
185   SEA 2018        33 18 15 .545  57
186   LAD 2005        33 15 18 .455  57
187   HOU 2006        33 15 18 .455  57
188   DET 2016        33 14 19 .424  57
189   CHW 1999        33 10 23 .303  57
190   BOS 1996        33 12 21 .364  57
191   WSH 1956        32 11 21 .344  57
192   SEA 2005        37 11 26 .297  56
193   ANA 2003        37 18 19 .486  56
194   PHI 1956        36 10 26 .278  56
195   FLA 2000        36 15 21 .417  56
196   SEA 2003        35 19 16 .543  56
197   MIN 2007        35 15 20 .429  56
198   MIL 2009        35 19 16 .543  56
199   CLE 2017        35 16 19 .457  56
200   ARI 2003        35 13 22 .371  56
201   PIT 2006        34  8 26 .235  56
202   MIN 1997        34 15 19 .441  56
203   MIL 2001        34 19 15 .559  56
204   LAA 1961        34 11 23 .324  56
205   BOS 2017        34 16 18 .471  56
206   SFG 2000        33 13 20 .394  56
207   PIT 2010        33 11 22 .333  56
208   MIN 2002        33 14 19 .424  56
209   BOS 2006        33 18 15 .545  56
210   ARI 2009        33 12 21 .364  56
211   TEX 2003        32 12 20 .375  56
212   TBD 2006        32 11 21 .344  56
213   SDP 2001        32 16 16 .500  56
214   TOR 1978        36  8 28 .222  55
215   SEA 1986        35 12 23 .343  55
216   MIL 1995        35 14 21 .400  55
217   MLN 1960        34 14 20 .412  55
218   LAD 1960        34 13 21 .382  55
219   CLE 2016        34 16 18 .471  55
220   CLE 2019        33 15 18 .455  55
221   STL 1956        32 19 13 .594  55
222   SDP 1999        32 13 19 .406  55
223   SDP 2006        32 14 18 .438  55
224   HOU 2019        37 22 15 .595  54
225   BAL 2001        35 15 20 .429  54
226   TBD 2002        34  7 27 .206  54
227   MIN 1998        34  9 25 .265  54
228   BAL 2012        34 17 17 .500  54
229   WSA 1963        33  6 27 .182  54
230   NYY 2017        33 20 13 .606  54
231   HOU 2011        33 11 22 .333  54
232   CLE 2009        33 11 22 .333  54
233   ARI 2011        33 14 19 .424  54
234   TEX 2015        32 11 21 .344  54


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/22/2019.

On the top 300 team list (abridged above), 2019 teams appear 19 times!

ETA: Re [12] Seattle 2019 is 7th on this list.


   14. bobm Posted: May 22, 2019 at 05:47 PM (#5844750)
Teams on the top 300 list with a winning record in games among the 1st 48 games where they surrendered at least 1 HR

                                     
Rk    Tm Year #Matching  W  L W-L% HR
1    BRO 1955        33 23 10 .697 52
2    NYY 1988        34 22 12 .647 49
3    CLE 1999        36 22 14 .611 59
4    TOR 1985        33 20 13 .606 50
5    NYY 2017        33 20 13 .606 54
6    LAD 2000        35 21 14 .600 64
7    CLE 1996        35 21 14 .600 62
8    HOU 2019        37 22 15 .595 54
9    STL 1956        32 19 13 .594 55
10   SEA 2002        32 19 13 .594 49
11   LAD 2019        34 20 14 .588 57
12   CIN 2006        34 20 14 .588 65
13   BOS 2018        34 20 14 .588 50
14   NYY 2019        36 21 15 .583 64
15   COL 2000        38 22 16 .579 74
16   STL 2006        33 19 14 .576 48
17   NYM 2006        33 19 14 .576 50
18   ATL 2003        33 19 14 .576 51
19   ARI 2017        33 19 14 .576 53
20   MIN 1964        35 20 15 .571 60
21   SEA 2016        34 19 15 .559 53
22   MIL 2001        34 19 15 .559 56
23   CHW 2000        34 19 15 .559 60
24   PHI 2009        38 21 17 .553 75
25   SEA 2018        33 18 15 .545 57
26   NYY 2004        33 18 15 .545 53
27   CHW 2006        33 18 15 .545 53
28   BOS 2016        33 18 15 .545 48
29   BOS 2006        33 18 15 .545 56
30   SEA 2003        35 19 16 .543 56
31   PHI 2001        35 19 16 .543 53
32   MIL 2009        35 19 16 .543 56
33   HOU 2008        35 19 16 .543 66
34   SFG 1993        32 17 15 .531 47
35   TBR 2018        34 18 16 .529 53
36   PHI 2019        34 18 16 .529 64
37   MIL 2007        34 18 16 .529 46
38   CIN 2010        34 18 16 .529 50
39   ARI 2002        34 18 16 .529 52
40   WSN 2017        36 19 17 .528 62
41   TOR 2001        36 19 17 .528 53
42   STL 2001        36 19 17 .528 63
43   DET 1994        38 20 18 .526 62
44   WSN 2016        33 17 16 .515 43
45   SDP 2004        33 17 16 .515 52
46   CAL 1985        33 17 16 .515 49
47   SFG 1958        35 18 17 .514 59
48   BAL 1994        39 20 19 .513 64


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/22/2019.
   15. Itchy Row Posted: May 22, 2019 at 06:25 PM (#5844757)
They're getting better. The Orioles gave up 73 HR through the end of April. BB-Ref says that March-April total is easily the highest month, 16 ahead of the A's in May 1964. The Cardinals had given up 53 HR through April 30 this year, which is tied for the 10th highest monthly total.
   16. bobm Posted: May 22, 2019 at 07:13 PM (#5844771)
[15] They're getting better. The Orioles gave up 73 HR through the end of April.

 32 HR through 12 games ( 32)
 59 HR through 24 games (+27)
 78 HR through 36 games (+19)
100 HR through 48 games (+22)
   17. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5844779)
That's how draft position should be determined. Take the 10 worst teams, and seed them like the playoffs, except worst team gets best seed. Then whoever wins the tournament gets the #1 pick, WC losers get #9 and #10, etc.


loses the tournament?
   18. Srul Itza Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5844782)
Four more today, in four innings of pitching by Strally.
   19. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:46 PM (#5844787)
Make it five. Torres just hit another, although this one was off Ynoa.
   20. puck Posted: May 22, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5844812)
The Orioles are coming to Colorado this weekend!
   21. DanG Posted: May 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM (#5844818)
In 1956, Robin Roberts had only a slightly higher rate, 1.4 per 9, in setting a record with 46 homers allowed. This record would stand for 30 years.
Any chance that Blyleven's record will fall this year?

Player         HR    IP Year  Tm
Bert Blyleven  50 271.2 1986 MIN
Jose Lima      48 196.1 2000 HOU
Bert Blyleven  46 267.0 1987 MIN
Robin Roberts  46 297.1 1956 PHI
Bronson Arroyo 46 199.0 2011 CIN
Jamie Moyer    44 202.0 2004 SEA
Eric Milton    43 201.0 2004 PHI
Pedro Ramos    43 231.0 1957 WSH
Denny McLain   42 264.1 1966 DET
Dylan Bundy    41 171.2 2018 BAL
Rick Helling   41 219.1 1999 TEX
Phil Niekro    41 342.0 1979 ATL
Robin Roberts  41 305.0 1955 PHI 
   22. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: May 23, 2019 at 12:39 AM (#5844819)
David Hess of the Orioles is at 17 allowed a bit lesss than a third of the season in so he’s ahead of Blylevens pace. The thing about Blyleven is he actually pitched reasonably well the year he did it. Hess has been genuinely awful so it’s hard to imagine him making 30 starts to challenge it.
   23. bobm Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:22 AM (#5844833)
[22] Through 48 team games:

                          
          Player Year HR
   Bert Blyleven 1987 21
       Jose Lima 2000 20
   Bert Blyleven 1986 19
[...]
      David Hess 2019 17


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/23/2019.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: May 23, 2019 at 07:58 AM (#5844840)
Feels like the Yankees have 90 of them.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2019 at 08:02 AM (#5844841)
loses the tournament?


This draft tournament would be an abomination if the loser got the first overall pick.
   26. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: May 23, 2019 at 08:27 AM (#5844843)
If memory serves, Oriole Park has long been considered a hitters park, but at least back in the 90s it was actually, overall, a pitchers park that was above average in the number of homers. Anyone know where it stands today as far as homers relative to other parks?
   27. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 23, 2019 at 08:36 AM (#5844844)
But we're still on pace for almost 51 50 wins!
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5844848)
This draft tournament would be an abomination if the loser got the first overall pick.

Of course. I meant the winner of the Bizarro World Series would get #1, loser would get #2, the "ALCS" and "NLCS" winners would get #3 and #4.

You lose to get into the tourney, but you win to get the good picks.
   29. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5844851)
That's how draft position should be determined. Take the 10 worst teams, and seed them like the playoffs, except worst team gets best seed. Then whoever wins the tournament gets the #1 pick, WC losers get #9 and #10, etc.


I'm generally against draft tinkering, but this is an idea -- pipedreamish though it may be -- I might be able to support.

First, I think you keep it simple and go with bottom 8. Single game or short (3 game?) series. Once you get to pick #8 - you're generally getting a lot more drift anyway, so I don't think we should really care too much how picks 9 through 30 shake out. Tourney winner gets the #1, finals runner-up #2, lottery/coin-flip the semi-finals losers (or have a round robin losers bracket, whatever).

There are still problems though... now, you've created a REAL incentive for teams sub-.500 but not awful (~75 winnish teams) to slam on the breaks to try to make the postseason #1 pick tourney. That really has the potential to wreak havoc on the pennant races far more than with the fanciful, doesn't really exist race to get the #1 by piling up the most losses.

Second, what's the incentive for the players? I'm not even talking about getting the MLBPA to play ball - most players aren't going to care who gets the #1 pick... and plenty of the teams playing are going to have guys who won't even be a part of the org the following year (i.e., if I'm a FA - and I know I don't want to sign with a rebuilding team - why in the hell would I want my soon-to-be-former team to get the top pick?). I suppose you could get creative with some incentives.

I suppose you could leaven all this with NBA lottery balls style steps in the process...

It's hard to see MLB and MLBPA ever agreeing on it, but it could be interesting.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5844856)
Second, what's the incentive for the players? I'm not even talking about getting the MLBPA to play ball - most players aren't going to care who gets the #1 pick... and plenty of the teams playing are going to have guys who won't even be a part of the org the following year (i.e., if I'm a FA - and I know I don't want to sign with a rebuilding team - why in the hell would I want my soon-to-be-former team to get the top pick?). I suppose you could get creative with some incentives.

Pay them? You could contest the series with the AAA teams if you wanted. The point is not the level of competition, it's that you don't gain anything by being truly awful.
   31. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:24 AM (#5844858)
The Bizarro World Series would have to expand the playoffs to cover all 20 teams that don't make the conventional playoffs. Otherwise it creates an incentive for tanking at the edges -- last year the Mets would've played in the NL Bizarro Wild Card Game. In real life they went 18-10 in September, but with the BWC to shoot for (and the hard-charging Phillies going 8-20 in the month) the Mets would've rested Syndergaard, Wheeler, and De Grom down the stretch and started whatever lifeless corpses they found lying around the AAA ballpark. Then they'd have the horses fresh for the games that matter, and hopefully 96 or so losses to establish a nice seeding.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:28 AM (#5844860)
The Bizarro World Series would have to expand the playoffs to cover all 20 teams that don't make the conventional playoffs. Otherwise it creates an incentive for tanking at the edges

Fair enough.
   33. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5844862)
I still like the idea of draft position being determined by the number of wins you get after being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. It has a built in handicap (terrible teams get eliminated early), and incentivizes trying to win until the final bell. The tanking issue there would be a truly horrible team tanking in midseason to get eliminated as quickly as possible, but any system based on team performance is going to have some room to be gamed. (This is, I suppose, an argument for an NBA-style lottery.)
   34. . Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5844886)
Or you just have a draft lottery where all the teams get in.

This is another situation where there were norms/premises that underpinned something, but the norms/premises no longer pertain so the something has to be entirely rethought. The idea of the American-style draft was to improve competitive balance, and the way to do that was to draft in reverse order of the previous year's finish. That makes sense. But the norm/premise underpinning it is that the previous year's finish would be the result of all the teams competing their best all the way through the season and in the previous year's off-season. Now, of course, teams don't do that and so the draft needs to be entirely rethought.
   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5844968)
You lose to get into the tourney, but you win to get the good picks.

Players might be less than enthusiastic about playing well to make it more likely they’d be replaced down the road, so you’d have to pay them enough to give them an incentive to win. It’s a lot easier to just do a draft lottery.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 23, 2019 at 12:46 PM (#5844971)
Players might be less than enthusiastic about playing well to make it more likely they’d be replaced down the road, so you’d have to pay them enough to give them an incentive to win. It’s a lot easier to just do a draft lottery.

Easier. but less entertaining :-) Since when are hair-brained schemes supposed to be easy? And the lottery hasn't stopped tanking in the NBA.

The beauty of this system is that it's going to be really unlikely for a 50-win tankola team to win through a 8-10 team playoff.

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