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Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Orioles promote Manny Machado

Machado, 20, was the third overall pick in the 2010 draft, behind Nationals OF Bryce Harper and Pirates RHP prospect Jameson Taillon. He was ranked the No. 3 overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com entering the 2012 season, and No. 11 by Baseball America.

In 108 games at Double-A Bowie, Machado hit .266 (.350 OBP), with 26 doubles, 10 home runs, 58 RBIs and 13 steals.

Teams don’t usual promote prospects to sit them on the bench, so expect Machado to get in the lineup sooner rather than later.

escabeche Posted: August 08, 2012 at 11:49 PM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: manny machado, orioles

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   1. Dan Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4204015)
Wow. Did anyone see this coming? I can't recall anyone even mentioning it as a realistic option for this season. I like it though, it's a bold move and it puts more talent on their 25 man roster.

Looks like they've played him at third base in 2 games at AA. It'll be interesting to see if they play him there or at second base or shift Hardy to 3B/2B.
   2. Curse of the Andino Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4204016)
They've apparently been working him out at 3B for a while down in Bowie.
   3. DKDC Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:20 AM (#4204021)
Hardy will definitely stay at SS.

I did not see this coming, but I like it. The bar is pretty low for him to be an upgrade over Betimit at 3B and the O's might as well empty their gun this year because they aren't likely to compete next year.

The downside is that they hurt his development by rushing him, but I guess I've always felt that a player who looks like they were ruined because they were aggressively promoted was going to fail anyways, particularly if it's a position player.
   4. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4204028)
They still need a 1B, don't they? Any interest in Lyle Overbay?
   5. Curse of the Andino Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4204031)
They still need a 1B, don't they? Any interest in Lyle Overbay?


It's said "they believe" they can get away with a platoon of Betemit + Reynolds at 1B, plus there's Chris Davis in the mix, unless they want him for late-inning relief. But, maybe they'll sign Overbay tomorrow, who knows?

   6. Walt Davis Posted: August 09, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4204035)
Man, Machado is a much more common name than I realized.

He turned 20 but it's tecnhically his age 19 season (July 6 bday). The K-rate looks OK but a 265 BA at AA can't translate well at all. I'd imagine he'll have trouble hitting 220. By comparison, Castro (March 24 bday) hit 288 at AA at 19 and then 376 in a month at AA at 20 before coming to the majors. But Harper struggled (BA-wise) at AA at 18 and nothing special at AAA at 19 and of course he's done just fine. Mike Trout did OK at AA at age 19. :-)

So I boldly predict he will fall somewhere between Mario Mendoza and Mike Trout.
   7. Curse of the Andino Posted: August 09, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4204036)
The K-rate looks OK but a 265 BA at AA can't translate well at all. I'd imagine he'll have trouble hitting 220.


Yeah, but he was white-hot his last 8 games, and it isn't as though the O's have any better options at 3B. Besides, while Baltimore is famous for rushing pitchers to the majors and ruining them, I don't think they've wrecked a position prospect since Jeff Fiorentino. And Jeff Fiorentino didn't work out with Alex Rodriguez in the off-season, so never got his head on straight after that taste of the majors in '05. We'll see...
   8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 09, 2012 at 07:11 AM (#4204060)
I have Machado's MLE at 232/303/348. That's not good. It's very rare that a kid with a sub-800 OPS in the Eastern League gets the call, and with good reason.

Machado's obviously a special talent, and this year he responded very well to an aggressive placement in AA despite struggling in 60 games in the Carolina League. So it's certainly possible he'll respond well to this new challenge. I just wouldn't bet on it.

One thing that the O's have going for them is that Machado's supposed to be a legitimate SS glove. Pairing a solid defender at shortstop with another capable SS next to him at third should have some nice knock-on effects for the pitching.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 09, 2012 at 07:39 AM (#4204067)
There was a highly touted shortstop prospect several years ago who got promoted to the majors despite a 271/335/385 hitting line in the Eastern League. He put up a 116 OPS+ and won the rookie of the year award.

Of course, Machado is by all accounts a good kid with great motivation, unlike Hanley who by a number of accounts was probably bored and sandbagging in the minors. But it's an interesting little comp.
   10. Joey B. Posted: August 09, 2012 at 08:54 AM (#4204093)
Tied for the wild card once again, and only 4.5 games back of the Yankees? Amazing. You really can't say enough about the job that Showalter has done with this team to this point of the season.
   11. Belfry Bob Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4204099)
I don't think that much of the move, but since he was probably going to get called up in 20 days anyway, does it really make that much difference in his 'development'?
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4204108)
So I boldly predict he will fall somewhere between Mario Mendoza and Mike Trout.


The modern Mendoza, or Mendoza in his prime?
   13. AROM Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4204114)
One thing that the O's have going for them is that Machado's supposed to be a legitimate SS glove.


Earlier in the season the Oriole broadcasters had Duquette in the booth and were talking about Machado. Duquette was saying everything he had heard about Machado was that he'd get too big for the position and have to move to third. Then watching Machado with his own eyes, he was impressed by how many plays the kid could make. To which Jim Palmer responds "Have you introduced him to Cal Ripken yet?".
   14. AROM Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:21 AM (#4204117)
So I boldly predict he will fall somewhere between Mario Mendoza and Mike Trout.


Even Mighty Mike, called up at a similar age and point of the season last year, only hit 220/281/390.
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4204126)
I love the fact that Duquette is willing to take chances like this. He's been very aggressive with the roster, and it's fun to watch.

In this case, I'm not sure I see a downside. I'm not sure I buy the idea that calling up a young position player will ruin his development. If anything, this says to me that the Orioles were planning to have him spend most of next season in Baltimore, and some time in the majors this year might jump start his development a la ARod and Trout (NOTE: I am NOT saying that Machado is similar to those players in terms of talent, but both got a chunk of playing time in MLB at 19, and while they were lousy, it might have helped them the next season.) And while I don't expect him to hit, he probably won't be any worse than Andino with the bat and will probably be significantly better than Betemit with the glove.

The only real issue is the service time, and if they'd waited until next May they would have had him for an extra year. That's not nothing, but if he can help them in this pennant race it'll be worth it.
   16. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4204137)
Also, while his stats aren't amazing, he's got a .789 OPS in a league that's hitting .720, and IIRC he's the youngest position player in the league. By comparison, Hanley hit .720 as a 21 year old in the EL when the league hit .725.
   17. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4204397)
An interesting comparison I stole from someone on an Orioles site:

Starlin Castro:

AA (19) .288/.347/.396/.744
ML (20) .300/.347/.408/.755

Jose Reyes:

AA (19) .287/.331/.425/.757
ML (20) .307/.334/.434/.769

Elvis Andrus:

AA (19) .295/.350/.367/.717
ML (20) .267/.329/.373/.702

Manny Machado:

AA (19) .266/.344/.438/.782
ML (19) ???

and ARod...

AAA (19) .360/.411/.654
ML (19) .232/.264/.408
ML (20) .358/.414/.631
   18. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 09, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4204406)
Then watching Machado with his own eyes, he was impressed by how many plays the kid could make. To which Jim Palmer responds "Have you introduced him to Cal Ripken yet?".


The answer is yes.
Cal Ripken, Jr. talks with Orioles prospect Manny Machado about the Minors, his routine, and staying healthy.

(A video from earlier this month.)
   19. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: August 09, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4204446)
A nice aggressive move with little downside that I can see (they can always send him back down after September if it doesn't work out).

Like Joey B., I agree that not nearly enough has been said or written about the job Buck Showalter has done to keep this team in contention all the way into mid-August on little more than Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and table scraps. As impressive as Davey Johnson has been with the Nats, the talent he's had to work with there is undeniable. The fact that the O's are still hanging around in the AL East, however, despite that massive negative run differential and the lack of anything resembling a pitching rotation, is little short of amazing and has to put Showalter at or near the top of the list for AL Manager of the Year, IMO.
   20. escabeche Posted: August 09, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4204501)
The aggressive roster management has been a pleasant surprise. Under the management Orioles fans have been used to, Endy Chavez would still be racking up plate appearances for this team.

And the bullpen management has been superb; it's not just that the Orioles have a lot of very effective relievers, which they do, it's that Showalter has successfully set things up so that the less effective guys are used in garbage time and the top pitchers are somehow always available in a high-leverage situation. That's one reason the Orioles are overperforming Pythag, I think; games we're losing by 4 tend to turn into brutal blowouts thanks to Kevin Gregg, games we're winning by 1 tend to turn into narrow wins thanks to Pedro Strop (and a lineup less capable than most of turning a 1-run lead into a blowout....)

   21. donlock Posted: August 09, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4204672)
Please don't mention Lyle Overbay joining the Orioles in an otherwise positive story and comments. In the old days (last year) he would have been eating up AB at first. There would have been talk about bringing back Kevin Millar or Derrek Lee from retirement, or finding a way to retrieve Brandon Snyder, Garrett Atkins or Jake Fox either.
   22. escabeche Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4204997)
Machado triples in a losing cause......
   23. vivaelpujols Posted: August 10, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4205035)
The downside is that he hits .240, isn't an upgrade over what they have right now, and wastes a half a year of service time trying to adjust to the major leagues before he's ready.
   24. DKDC Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:38 AM (#4205108)
The downside is that he hits .240, isn't an upgrade over what they have right now


If he hits .240 with a decent glove, then he’s Jamey Carroll, and he’s an upgrade over what they have now.

and wastes a half a year of service time trying to adjust to the major leagues before he's ready.


This isn't really a big deal.

Machado accrues 55 days of service time this year if he stays in the majors for the rest of the season. If he never goes to the minors again, he'll be a free agent after the 2018 season. This is no different than if he was called up in April next year.

If the Orioles want to delay Machado’s free agency by another year, he’ll have to spend roughly 65 days in the minors on optional assignment over the next several years. So if he falls on his face in this trial, he’ll need to spend some time in AAA, which is what they’d want to do anyway.
   25. AROM Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:56 AM (#4205125)
Oriole 3B so far: 249/320/412. Not that bad given the lower levels of offense in recent years, and actually slightly better than the Orioles' overall batting line.

Now the defense: -13 TZ, -15 DRS, 24 errors, 16 DP. Lots of room for improvement here.
   26. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4205241)
Showalter has successfully set things up so that the less effective guys are used in garbage time and the top pitchers are somehow always available in a high-leverage situation. That's one reason the Orioles are overperforming Pythag, I think; games we're losing by 4 tend to turn into brutal blowouts thanks to Kevin Gregg, games we're winning by 1 tend to turn into narrow wins thanks to Pedro Strop


Every manager in the majors uses his good relievers in winnable games and his bad relievers when the team is already losing. The fact that the talent gap between Baltimore's good and bad relievers is much bigger than what you find in most teams' bullpens probably does imply that they aren't as bad a team as their run differential would suggest, but it doesn't mean that Showalter is some kind of genius.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4205258)
Every manager in the majors uses his good relievers in winnable games and his bad relievers when the team is already losing.


Except for the law that closers can't be used in tie games on the road...
   28. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4205343)
Well, like you said, that's a law. And besides, on many teams, the closer isn't the best reliever anyway.
   29. AROM Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4205349)
Every manager in the majors uses his good relievers in winnable games and his bad relievers when the team is already losing.


The tough part is identifying them. Plenty of teams have pitchers with terrible results getting high leverage innings. This happens not because the manager is stupid enough to think a 6.50 ERA guy is the right choice to pitch important innings, but because they thought the pitcher would be good and it turns out he wasn't. They though he would be good because he was good in the past. And if he doesn't turn it around quick, he won't be pitching high leverage innings much longer. But you can't undo what's already been done.

Baltimore's been fortunate in that every reliever has been pretty good for them - even Gregg has a roughly league average ERA. The blowouts they've lost are mostly due to terrible performances by the starting pitchers.

   30. escabeche Posted: August 10, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4205419)
This happens not because the manager is stupid enough to think a 6.50 ERA guy is the right choice to pitch important innings, but because they thought the pitcher would be good and it turns out he wasn't
.

I think it also happens because managers mismanage the bullpen and get themselves in a situation where the mediocre pitcher is the one who's available. My impression of Showalter is that he doesn't tend to bring in guys to face a single batter much, for instance.
   31. Rennie's Tenet Posted: August 10, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4205441)
The big question is, are they playing Gilbert and Sullivan as he comes to the plate?
   32. Ace of Kevin Bass Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4205866)
Not a bad game.
   33. DKDC Posted: August 10, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4205886)
Insert joke about the Royals and minor league pitching here...
   34. escabeche Posted: August 10, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4205896)
I think he's ready.
   35. Curse of the Andino Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4205923)
Insert joke about the Royals and minor league pitching here...


Not if you're gonna give up the punchline.

/Machado! Machado!!

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