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Thursday, February 15, 2018

Orioles sign Cashner to two-year, $16 million deal (updated) - School of Roch

The Orioles now have three confirmed starting pitchers.

The club has reached agreement with right-hander Andrew Cashner on a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $16 million, according to multiple sources. The deal is done and the club is expected to announce it shortly.

Cashner joins a rotation that includes Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. One spot is expected to be filled internally.

The contract includes a $10 million vesting option for 2020 if he totals 360 innings over the next two seasons and is heavy in incentives, according to a source.

Update: The option vests at 340 innings and becomes a player option at 360 innings, according to ESPN.com.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:10 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: andrew cashner, orioles

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5625644)
This seems like an overpay for a guy who only K'd 4.5 batters per 9.
   2. BDC Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5625657)
Cashner was pretty good through five innings last year, and then pretty terrible in the sixth. I guess most starters are tiring by the sixth inning these days, but among guys who made 20 starts and got into 15 sixth innings (which is how B-Ref decided to give me the data), the median sixth-inning ERA was 3.73, and Cashner's was 6.43 – there were only a few pitchers worse.

Anyway, both watching him at the park or looking at the box score the next day, it was dramatic how many times he came out for the sixth inning and you would think, live or in retrospect, what a bad idea.
   3. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5625668)
Cashner looks exactly like the kind of guy who should be converted to the bullpen. Watching him last year, I couldn't believe this was the same guy who was so hot for the Padres just a few years ago.
   4. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: February 15, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5625714)
J.Garcia to TOR for 1/8
   5. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5625731)
Correction: There's a t-opt for year 2 for 10m, with a 2m buyout - so 10m guaranteed.

I mentioned it in this thread to invite comparisons with Cashner in terms of value...
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:22 PM (#5625737)
This seems unwise, but I guess it's their money.
   7. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5625741)
Watching him last year, I couldn't believe this was the same guy who was so hot for the Padres just a few years ago.

Cubs got Rizzo for him. So, yeah.
   8. Captain Supporter Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5625742)
Someone apparently forgot to tell the Orioles (and the Blue Jays) about their collusion responsibilities. But I am sure some of our conspiracy theorists will find a way to fit these signings signing into their collusion narrative.
   9. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:50 PM (#5625751)
Someone apparently forgot to tell the Orioles (and the Blue Jays) about their collusion responsibilities. But I am sure some of our conspiracy theorists will find a way to fit these signings signing into their collusion narrative.

Duh. All pitcher contracts are expressed in multiples of $8m/yr.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5625754)
How in the world is 1/$10 with an option for Cashner evidence against collusion?

He had a 138 ERA+ in 28 starts and 167 innings with an 11-11 record. He's credited with 4.6 bWAR and 1.9 fWAR. Even if you take fWAR as more predictive (as we should), that's still a quite useful SP. Fangraphs puts that at $15 M last year and he's been more valuable than that in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to 2017.

So 9.3 fWAR (7 bWAR) over 5 years, only turning 31 and he can only get 1/$10. That might not be evidence of collusion but it sure as #### isn't counter-evidence.

FWIW, Samardzija was turning 31 and coming off 5 years of 12.5 fWAR -- clearly better than Cashner but not 5/$90 vs. 1/$10 better. Now I'm sure one can make a case that the gap is even bigger based on K/9, velocity, etc.

Jason Hammel was coming off 3/5.6 or 5/8.8 fWAR and turning 34 and got a guaranteed 2/$16 just last year. What is pretty similar is that Hammel didn't sign until 8 Feb.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5625756)
I should note that Cashner last year only got 1/$10. That was coming off a lousy season. He was signed early though on Nov 21.

Cubs got Rizzo for him.

Indeed but it's also pretty clear the Cubs valued Rizzo more than the Padres did. The Padres traded for Yonder Alonso on Dec 17 to be their future 1B, traded Rizzo three weeks later. For the Padres, the question is not so much how they could have thought Cashner was good return for Rizzo but why did they think Alonso would be better than Rizzo. It may have just been a bit of "Rizzo was Hoyer's guy, I don't want him around." (And presumably the Padres shopped him around a bit, meaning Cashner was the best offer they got for Rizzo
   12. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5625841)
Worst K/BB in baseball in 2017.

xFIP of 5.30 in 2017.

Steamer projects 0.6 fWAR in 2018.

Pass. Best of luck to the Orioles on their quest to top 70 wins this year.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:18 PM (#5625846)
He had a 138 ERA+ in 28 starts and 167 innings with an 11-11 record. He's credited with 4.6 bWAR and 1.9 fWAR.

I don't think those stats are indicative. His peripherals were just awful as per the DP man.

Worst K/BB in baseball in 2017.

xFIP of 5.30 in 2017.
   14. bunyon Posted: February 16, 2018 at 07:36 AM (#5625935)
Walt, you're forgetting that the bar for "quality starter" has edged up steadily over time. In ten years, if you aren't Roger Clemens, you won't be worth dog food.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 16, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5626025)
The Athletics has a good piece today on Cashner. Basically he has a short stride, which means his velocity plays down due to release point and spin rate. His effective FB is over 1 MPH slower than his actual velocity.

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