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Friday, June 20, 2014

Orioles starters can’t fool hitters

Orioles starters have trouble getting batters to swing at pitches out of the zone, particularly Ubaldo Jimenez:

“Hitters swing at only 24.5% of Jimenez’s pitches out of the zone, fewer than one out of four. This is great, because he throws out of the zone so rarel—err, no, wait, he throws out of the zone 53.6% of the time. Dang.”

rpollack Posted: June 20, 2014 at 02:02 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: orioles, pitchfx, pitching, strike zone

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   1. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: June 20, 2014 at 03:51 PM (#4731766)
Isn't it possible that hitters don't swing at Jimenez's pitches out of the zone because they know that more than half of his pitches are going to be out of the zone?
   2. Bhaakon Posted: June 20, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4731776)
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that a pitcher who throws that many pitches outside the zone is also missing it by a wider margin than most.
   3. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: June 20, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4731825)
Having seen him pitch in person a couple of times this year, I'm going to say that you seem to be right.
   4. DKDC Posted: June 20, 2014 at 05:14 PM (#4731891)
I actually think Jimenez is more of a "nibbler" than a Daniel Cabrera wild thing type.

But I couldn't agree with the headline more.
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 20, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4731912)
Kip Wells Disease is usually terminal.
   6. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: June 20, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4731937)
I could be imagining things, but its seems like the Orioles starters waste a lot of pitches. They'll get to 1-2 or 0-2 and then throw a couple balls WAY out of the zone. And then it's 2-2 or 3-2 and they have to throw a strike (or walk the guy).
   7. DKDC Posted: June 20, 2014 at 07:08 PM (#4731949)
Now watch Ubaldo go pitch a gem against the Yankees tonight. That would be such a Ubaldo thing to do.

Of course, so would walking 5 guys and allowing a couple grand slams in one inning like he did against the As...
   8. Moeball Posted: June 20, 2014 at 07:10 PM (#4731950)
So who's the pitching coach in Baltimore these days? Sounds like a lot of these issues should be adjustable...
   9. puck Posted: June 20, 2014 at 07:34 PM (#4731962)
Wow, career high walk rate for Ubaldo, and his fastball velocity has dropped even further?
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 20, 2014 at 08:04 PM (#4731979)
Yeah, I'm not sure %swing out of zone is particularly useful. 24% of 53% is about 13% ... or about the same as 30% of 43%. The issue is almost certainly the 40/47 split (vs. 30/57) on the other pitches. That is possibly the same shape of the distribution and the same swing decisions (conditional on pitch location) but the "mean" location for Ubaldo is off the plate.
   11. joeysdadjoe Posted: June 21, 2014 at 10:06 AM (#4732149)
Britton had that problem too.....until Carlos Beltran.
   12. DKDC Posted: June 21, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4732220)
Carlos Slim could've homered off Britton last night. He had nothing.

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