.248/.328/.418

I like this for the Orioles actually. They're still going to be terrible but Derrek Lee makes it so that opposing pitchers won't be able to snooze through the entire lineup after Luke Scott.

It's hardly a crappy lineup anymore.

.248/.328/.418

Optimist! Lee'll never match Wigginton's performance of last year...

On a somewhat more-serious note, I like the Lee signing for one year a hell of a lot more than I'd've liked three years of Adam LaRoche. Club has flexibility in case Snyder or Bell really starts tearing it up at AAA, or more likely to sign/trade for somebody better next year.

With Reynolds, 110 games of Hardy, Roberts + Lee, Showalter's Os are now league-average or better at every position, a huge improvement over the last couple years (and particularly last year when it was Tejada at 3rd, Cesar at SS, Roberts hurt, and, ulp, Atkins at 1b.) Probably only good for 4th unless the pitching improves or Jones/Markakis/Weiters take great leaps forward, but the club is eminently more watchable than it used to be.

O’s agree to terms with D. Lee

This was an extremely difficult decision for me. I've been an Indians fan for as long as I've been alive, but I think we have a chance to accomplish something really special next year in Baltimore. I can't wait to get to Spring Training.

I know he's not getting any younger, but I think Lee is a candidate to bounce back a little bit. Add in plus defense and a 1-year deal for what he got paid seems more reasonable than (for example) Carlos Pena's deal.

This probably means Adam LaRoche is heading to the other end of the B-W Parkway.

With Reynolds, 110 games of Hardy, Roberts + Lee, Showalter's Os are now league-average or better at every position,

Geez, are there no realists left around here? Derrek Lee is 35 years old, and is coming off a 103 OPS+ last year. Oh, I know: he was playing hurt. Well, he had a 108 ERA+ in 2008, too. Mark Reynolds had a 98 OPS+ last year. Oh, I know: it was an off year. Well, he had a 95 OPS+ in 2008, too. JJ Hardy had a 93 and 75 OPS+ the last two years.

Ok, even I can't be a total pessimist anymore. This is a hell of a lot better than 2010, no matter what. But you can't analyze a team based on assuming that all players perform at the top of their projected range.


The big problem here is that it's a one year deal; if he doesn't bounce back, the Orioles gain nothing, and if he does, he leaves.

Mark Reynolds had a 98 OPS+ last year. Oh, I know: it was an off year. Well, he had a 95 OPS+ in 2008, too. JJ Hardy had a 93 and 75 OPS+ the last two years.

Aren't those both pretty average sets of offensive numbers for a 3B and a SS, respectively? I agree with you about Lee, though: he's almost certainly a below-average 1B at this point. Still, he's better than what they ran out there the last couple of years and might have some small shot at a little bit of a bounce-back.

Aren't those both pretty average sets of offensive numbers for a 3B and a SS, respectively? I agree with you about Lee, though: he's almost certainly a below-average 1B at this point. Still, he's better than what they ran out there the last couple of years and might have some small shot at a little bit of a bounce-back.

Eh they might be average overall offensively, although they have zero outstanding bats, and you have to figure they'll pick up some injuries somewhere. I would say that their real problem is that their SP is horrendous.

This is good fro two reasons. 1) It's not a multi-year deal. 2) It's not Adam LaRoche.

I would have taken Overbay earlier in the FA period, but that's just me.

This was an extremely difficult decision for me. I've been an Indians fan for as long as I've been alive, but I think we have a chance to accomplish something really special next year in Baltimore. I can't wait to get to Spring Training.

you're in the best shape of your career?

Geez, are there no realists left around here?

I'm still saying fourth. But even if Reynolds (98 OPS+), Hardy (95 career) and Lee (95) are no better than they were last year, the O's are still markedly improved, as the players replaced would be Tejada (82 OPS, lousy D), Izturis (50!!!, meh D until Buck kicked his ass), and Wigginton (who looks like a wash w/ Lee, until you realize Wiggie put up a great April+May when the club was going 15-39 under the Trembler, and then settled back into 232/278/384 mode as a full-time starter.)

You replace one of the worst starting infields of the past couple decades with meh, you can really work wonders. Get any bounceback from the (younger) trio, and 82-80 here we come! Lee ain't great shakes at 36, but he's only a couple years older than Wigginton, a decent bet to be better, and here on a one-year deal.

/The only player on the Os you can really pencil in for a markedly worse 2011 is Scott.

you're in the best shape of your career?

Well given his career is about 8 hours old... Oh and reports are coming in that he's been hitting the sauce on NYE. He has literally fallen off a cliff!

The 2010 O's infield would have been a godsend to the 2010 M's....

The 2010 O's infield would have been a godsend to the 2010 M's....

Wow, our sucky infield from hell wasn't even the suckiest infield of 2010. I bow to your suckiness.

Geez, are there no realists left around here? Derrek Lee is 35 years old, and is coming off a 103 OPS+ last year. Oh, I know: he was playing hurt. Well, he had a 108 ERA+ in 2008, too. Mark Reynolds had a 98 OPS+ last year. Oh, I know: it was an off year. Well, he had a 95 OPS+ in 2008, too. JJ Hardy had a 93 and 75 OPS+ the last two years.

Good thing it's an odd numbered year. :-)

Uhm.... yeah?

I would have taken Overbay earlier in the FA period, but that's just me.

Speaking as a Pirates fan, I'd much rather have Lee.

Derrek Lee's projections are 277/363/462 (CAIRO) and 263/343/432 (ZiPS). ZiPS is a 107 OPS+, so I'd expect CAIRO to be close to 115-120. That looks pretty good.

Derrek Lee's projections are 277/363/462 (CAIRO) and 263/343/432 (ZiPS). ZiPS is a 107 OPS+, so I'd expect CAIRO to be close to 115-120. That looks pretty good.

I assume that those projections probably weren't done based on him playing for the dregs of the A.L. East. If so, I'll most definitely take the under on 107.

I'd be happy to take that bet. $10 b-ref sponsorship?

(Both projections were based on Lee remaining in Atlanta.)

You're on.

Cool. I have saved this thread in by "b-ref bets" file. Do you want a PA minimum for the bet to hold? 300 or 400 PA or something like that? Doesn't matter either way to me.

EDIT: for what it's worth, if anyone cares, I'm bullish on DLee because I watched a bunch of Braves games down the stretch and thought he looked really good for a 35-year-old, and I'm expecting him to bounce back a bit. Plus, having gone over the projections for Red Sox related reasons, I don't see the AL East as a particularly difficult pitching division. It's a division with some great offenses, but the pitching isn't all that special, so I don't think switching divisions will make that much of a difference.

Let's say 300 PA minimum. And if he gets traded in the middle of the season, only his Orioles numbers count (of course if that happens it likely means I've lost the bet anyway).

EDIT: One more thing: not that I suspect that he will, but if he happens to fail a drug test at any point during the season then the bet is off.

I don't see the AL East as a particularly difficult pitching division.

Yeah, but that's mainly because none of the Orioles could pitch their way out of a paper bag.

Sounds good. Bet on.

$10 BBref? BO-RING.

You guys missed a great chance to make the loser donate to the DNC or RNC.

This probably means Adam LaRoche is heading to the other end of the B-W Parkway.

If so, will it be for two seasons or three?

You guys missed a great chance to make the loser donate to the DNC or RNC.

Our Lenny Dykstra's hedge legal fund.