I suspect this is much more about the $12 million the Astros save over the next 2 years than it is about how good J.A. Happ might be while under the Astros' control.

Ed Wade always was a good company man!

If healthy, this certainly would be an interesting 1-2-3 punch in the playoffs, but they may not find out until 2011.

Will he ride his tractor in the world series parade in Philly?

Oh hell yes. If there's a WS parade in Philly during Oswalt's tenure here, he'll be more than welcome to drive whatever he pleases down the middle of Broad Street.

Ed Wade is turning the Astros into "The Kansas City Athletics -- The New Generation." Where is the Houston equivalent of Charlie Finley?

Thanks Krusty.

How much of an impact will this have for the Phils? 1/2 a win?

And also, the Astros got hosed. I love the difference between Happ's xFIP (6.33) and ERA (1.76).

And also, the Astros got hosed. I love the difference between Happ's xFIP (6.33) and ERA (1.76).

Bet the Astros love the difference between Happ's and Oswalt's paychecks.

Hopefully the two prospects are Dominic Brown and Singleton, otherwise...ugh.

And also, the Astros got hosed.

We don't even know who the minor-leaguers are.

Apparently the minor leaguers are Gose and Villar. Blast away.

#5 - I'd have to think much more than 1/2 a win. Happ is... not good. He was ERA lucky one year and that's it.

Oswalt won't start Friday (I don't think), owing to sheer logistics of getting him to Philly, etc. They have 61 games left including tonight. If he starts Sat. there'd be 59 games left, which allows for maybe 12 starts in total (perhaps less, I'm doing this on an every-5th-game basis). 12 starts taken from Happ and given to Oswalt has to be more than a 1/2 win upgrade. I'd guess at least a couple of wins, if not a bit more.

Add in that Moyer's likely done for the year and you had a real problem here: 60% of your starts down the stretch given to Blanton, Kendrick, and Happ. They needed an upgrade from the possibility that Kendrick/Happ go completely belly-up over the last 2 months.

We don't even know who the minor-leaguers are.

I don't think it matters. Happ will be enough to make the other two not worth it. They'll give him a ton of starts and he'll suck enough so that whatever value they provide (if they provide any at all) will be canceled out by him.

As long they hold on to Singleton, well, Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels is impressive. Two cheers for the Phils. Now if they just get a reliable closer...

If the Phils can flip Oswalt for Strasburg they'll be the favorites in the NL East.

As long they hold on to Singleton, well, Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels is impressive. Two cheers for the Phils. Now if they just get a reliable closer...

I have to think they are after a closer given that investing this much without a reliable bullpen stopper seems like a recipe for disaster.

Apparently the minor leaguers are Gose and Villar. Blast away.

Yikes. Both have sub-700 career mLB OPS's.

#5 - I'd have to think much more than 1/2 a win. Happ is... not good. He was ERA lucky one year and that's it.

I guess you're right. I count about 19 runs difference between the two over 12 starts based on xFIP. So about 2 wins.

Oswalt for Happ/Gose/Villar is obscene. If there were an actual Commissioner he'd step in an stop this travesty.

I guess you're right. I count about 19 runs difference between the two over 12 starts based on xFIP. So about 2 wins.

And in the NL Wild Card, that could be a big difference.

Wade is making progress though. Not a middle reliever in the haul. (I imagine Ruben Amaro asked "Ya sure you don't want a middle reliever coming back!?" and Ed replied, "No, I'm good.")

#5 - I'd have to think much more than 1/2 a win. Happ is... not good. He was ERA lucky one year and that's it.

Not being as good as his 2.93 ERA does not make him "not good".
Of course he's been hurt since then and his minor league numbers this year are scary bad.

Assuming he's healthy I'd rather have Happ than Saunders

Gose's upside looks about like Michael Bourn. And that's with some development from his bat.

As usual, great work from Ed Wade.

Might I suggest one Ramon Ramirez as a closer candidate for the Phillies? All we require is a bucket of shiny baseballs! We'll even pick up the shipping costs!

Oswalt for Happ/Gose/Villar is obscene. If there were an actual Commissioner he'd step in an stop this travesty.

Poor little Braves fan. Getting nervous, are we?

#17 The problem is that I think Wade made the deal in good faith -- that he actually likes Happ.

No commissioner has ever ruled against bad judgment in trades.

And also, the Astros got hosed. I love the difference between Happ's xFIP (6.33) and ERA (1.76).

Small sample size caveats apply and in no way do I think it's sustainable, but it sure is something that Happ has does this for 3 straight years. I wonder how long any pitcher has ever kept up his "good luck"? I suppose one might call it reverse-Javier Vazquez syndrome, if you believe in that sort of thing.

Lets' see, Gose is 19, hitting .263/.325/.385 in the FSL (league .253/.323/.364 ), judging by the position CF, and steals, he's fast, judging by the CS he really needs to work on his baserunning, based upon his K/bb he needs to work on pitch selection/recognition. Based upon age/ level, and performance relative to league, not hopeless.

Villar- pretty much the same, slightly worse performance, slightly worse k/bb, slightly better sb/cs

Poor little Braves fan. Getting nervous, are we?

Obviously I'd prefer that the Phillies not improve themselves. A team with the Mets' financial capabilities but without the Mets' dysfunctional front office is not something that makes the life of a mid-market competitor happy, no matter how smart the franchise might be. With that said, this is clearly an idiotic and lopsided trade, and I don't think even pissing-on-Santa Philly trogs would disagree.

No commissioner has ever ruled against bad judgment in trades.

Obviously Selig wouldn't step in here. But if the "best interests of the game" had any meaning, he should.

Why didn't they just keep cliff lee

Looks like the Astros win record is safe...

Rank Player
1. Joe Niekro 144
2. Roy Oswalt 143
3. Larry Dierker 137
4. Mike Scott 110
5. J.R. Richard 107
6. Nolan Ryan 106
7. Don Wilson 104
8. Shane Reynolds 103
9. Bob Knepper 93
10. Ken Forsch 78

Lets' see, Gose is 19, hitting .263/.325/.385 in the FSL (league .253/.323/.364 ), judging by the position CF, and steals, he's fast, judging by the CS he really needs to work on his baserunning, based upon his K/bb he needs to work on pitch selection/recognition. Based upon age/ level, and performance relative to league, not hopeless.

Villar- pretty much the same, slightly worse performance, slightly worse k/bb, slightly better sb/cs

Interesting. So if they both develop as hoped, in a few years the Astros will have an entire outfield of Michael Bourn types. All coming from the Phillies too. That could work, especially if they decide to bring back the Astrodome.

I didn't see this part before, but Philly's getting $11 million too. The Astros have requested that in return the Phils should send Roy Halladay down to Houston to kick Ed Wade in the nuts because he likes it.

Where's baseball chick? And can somebody please keep her away from sharp objects, both for her sake and anyone else's?

I am a bit worries baseball chick hasn't weighed in...

Perhaps she took her sharp objects down to Minute Maid Field and is scraping them against the bricks outside, calling out, "Edddddie... wanna come out and play?"

Ed Wade won't be done until he ruins a team in the western time zone too, BTW...

From an Astros fan perspective, they need to get younger and free up money, so whatever we can get for Oswalt is what we can get. Clearly the Twins and the Cardinals weren't offering much better packages.

Now if only Wade could figure out how to *spend* FA money, we might have a chance. Alas...

Well, this pretty much eliminates the Mets who were only marginally in it. I also think this puts the Phillies back in as the NL favorites.

It looks like the prospect package is par for the course of what ace pitchers are commanding these days. The Astros paying half his salary part is what really swings this trade in the Phillies direction.

Gose's upside looks about like Michael Bourn.

Supposedly Gose has been traded to Toronto for Brett Wallace. That makes this a much better deal for Houston, doesn't it?

I realize Wallace hasn't hit much this season (his OPS looks OK but he plays in Las Vegas) but he's still a better prospect than Gose, I would think.

3:41pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Blue Jays will send Brett Wallace to Houston for Gose.

Gose and Villar appear to be lottery tickets. Any news on their tools?

Primakov, speed, speed and more speed. Villar has something like 42 errors at SS.
I've read scouting reports that Gose should fill out nicely.

3:41pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Blue Jays will send Brett Wallace to Houston for Gose.

I think I speak for all Blue Jays fans when I say "what the ####?!"

Edit: At least fans of alternate history scenarios will get to have some fun with Anthopoulos' Taylor/Wallace/Gose prospect shuffle.

Why the hell would the Jays trade Wallace for Gose?

WTF.

Ugh.

I 'own' Villar in a baseball simulacrum thing I'm in. Anyhoo, good speed, error prone, a little more pop than you'd think. I'm a bit worried about his K rate relative to his offensive profile. Decent B/B- prospect. It's thought he'll eventually need to move to 2B.

I can't judge this trade w/o knowing the $ involved...

What does this say about Wallace? He's gone from traded for Holliday, to traded for Taylor, to traded for Gose in the span of a year. Is his stock down, do organizations not like something about him, or what?

Brett Wallace is 23 and he's hitting .301/.359/.509 in AAA
in the PCL
in Las Vegas

an online mle calculator I founds says thats equivalent to .240/.289/.391
and he's no longer trying to play 3b

What does this say about Wallace? He's gone from traded for Holliday, to traded for Taylor, to traded for Gose in the span of a year. Is his stock down, do organizations not like something about him, or what?


I think people are overrating him quite a bit. He's had 650+ PAs in the PCL, and has around an .860 OPS. If he is really a 1B/DH-type, those numbers are pretty average.

Whether trading him for Gose is a good value is a whole different issue.

Well, this pretty much eliminates the Mets who were only marginally in it.

It's hard being the only optimist on the board.


What does this say about Wallace?

Ryan, where's Wallace? Ryan! Where the #### is Wallace, Ryan? Where's Wallace? Ryan?!!?!

Ryan, where's Wallace? Ryan! Where the #### is Wallace, Ryan? Where's Wallace? Ryan?!!?!

Nice.

I think we need to stop saying teams that are trading pitchers making high salaries, no matter how talented, are getting fleeced. Lee, Halladay, Haren, and Oswalt all have been traded for underwhelming packages lately. That seems to be the market right now especially if a guy has a no trade clause.

40: If so, I can sort of see why Wade makes this deal. His farm is badly in need of prospects.

...and just when you'd sold me on Gose, he traded Gose for the Walrus. What a strange swap.

It was not immediately clear if the Phillies or Astros offered any financial incentives for Oswalt to drop his trade veto rights.

ESPN says Roy's option year buyout goes up from $2 million to $3 million in return for his waiving his no-trade.

Speaking of a Charlie Finley and commissioner vetoes, Finley attempted to sell Rollie Fingers and Joe Rudi to Boston and Vida Blue to the Yankees in 1976. Bowie Kuhn voided the deals; Finley challenged him in court and lost.

Ryan, where's Wallace? Ryan! Where the #### is Wallace, Ryan? Where's Wallace? Ryan?!!?!

Wallace was snitching to the mounties.

After all the doom and gloom, I can't see any reason the Phillies won't be right there come the end of September even if Oswalt only eats innings.

How about an '08 Series rematch -- Rays vs. Roys?

I think I speak for all Blue Jays fans when I say "what the ####?!"

Edit: At least fans of alternate history scenarios will get to have some fun with Anthopoulos' Taylor/Wallace/Gose prospect shuffle.

AA was on air stating that he originally wanted Gose in the Halladay, but had to settle for Taylor. Been watching him for 2 years and everyone in the org thinks he will be an all star gold glove centrefielder.

TerpNats Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:22 PM (#3602996)

Where's baseball chick? And can somebody please keep her away from sharp objects, both for her sake and anyone else's?

- patiently

cmon there boy
you know goodnwell what grrls do when things are BAD news.
first we eat too much ice cream
then we go shopping for shoes

yall remember how much kevin luvvvvvs barry lamar? how much DMN luuuuuvs socialists?
well they have the luuuuuvvv affair of all time compared to how much i hate ed wade/drayton

to put it mildly i am a VERY unhappy female person and husband and kidz KNOW not to bother me right about now

you know goodnwell what grrls do when things are BAD news.
first we eat too much ice cream
then we go shopping for shoes

They are probably sold out of ice cream at Randall's (not just from bbc, but her acolytes as well), and her shoe collection may soon rival that of Imelda Marcos.

I hate Wade and Drayton also, but if they felt like they had to dump Oswalt and save that $12m, I think they did decently to get an innings eater and Wallace. I know some are way down on Wallace, and I can see why, but I think he ends up a good player. He's not knocking the cover off the ball at Las Vegas, but he's not gripping either, and he's not old for the level. Plus, Vegas numbers don't seem to translate as linearly as numbers from other parks.

Oswalt is useless to the Astros. Getting half his contract off the books is a win. Nobody else but the Phillies seemed willing to give up any players for him. Rather, a couple teams were willing to just take on some of the contract. Happ and Wallace are just league average players, but check out that roster...league average players are in very short supply in Houston.

dng

why do you think wallace will be a good player? he has been dumped by THREE organizations within a few months of being traded FOR

his MLE are WAAAYYY below league average for a 1B - he has a lousy walk rate too

and the astros NEED to aim for more than a bunch of league average players

terpnats

me and mama are about all screamed out - last time we did this much screaming was when that idiot drayton signed clank lee

Walrus = Marte.

Well, Marte pitched a scoreless inning against the Yankees today, not sure if Walrus can do that.

It's not fair, at all, to say Wallace was dumped by either the Cardinals or A's. He was traded for a great player and a (at the time) great prospect. And, given that both clubs decided 3B was a stretch for him, he was utterly and hopelessly blocked in St.Louis, and even Oakland he was pretty well blocked (and had Chris Carter on his heels).

Why do I think he'll be good? I think his defense will be fine. At 1B he's really not stretched, and he's got the right attributes for the job (nimble feet and excellent hands). He's never going to have tons of range, but that's not a huge deal at first. And, I think he will hit. Simple. MLEs are misused and often misleading. It takes an unquestionably great minor league season in the high minors to produce an MLE that looks impressive. Many a good hitter has come into the league with MLEs that look crappy. Wallace hasn't been fantastic at AAA, but he hasn't been dogshit either. The walk rate is the big problem, but, I think that walk rate might inch back up. Going on faith, but he's not a hacker. I'm not quite sure why he's walking so little. I want to attribute it to great bat control, which his averages suggest, but he strikes out a reasonable amount, so that doesn't make much sense. IDK, it's a mystery (imo), but I think as his career goes on, that discipline will come back into play, and I expect seasons with 60-70 walks regularly. He's never going to lead the league, but closer to 10% is within reach. And, besides that, there are just very few hitters in the minors with his pedigree combined with his results so far. He's had a good minor league career. Just not great. Think of all the bad seasons that various good mlb players had while in the minors. Wallace's bad season is this year at .301/.359/.509 with 43 XBH (18 HR) in about 430 PAs. Granted it's at Las Vegas, but his road numbers are .291/.342/.467. Far from great, but good average and still decent power. He more than held his own last year at AAA at the age of 22, including a very nice second half in Sacramento. That's not common. Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the numbers and look at the player. He's a guy with near elite hitting ability (as in the ability to hit for average), with decent-good power. It's not difficult to envision seasons of .300 with 25 home runs. Players like that don't grow on trees.

*shrug*

The problem is though, let's look at what most of the reasonablly above average 1B in the league have done in the minors.... I'm going to skip the elite guys, and lets just focus on the decent to good and relatively established guys.

Huff (probably the most comparable good case for Wallace): .316/.394/.566 in AAA IL age 23, took two more years before establishing himself.

Laroche : .295/.360/.466 AAA IL age 23, established relatively smoothly but also a meh peak value.

Carlos Pena : 288/.408/.550 age 23 PCL , also took a while to firmly establish

Overbay : 343/.396/.528 PCL AAA age 25, Overbay's a weird case though, he completley massacared AA and AAA but took till age 27 to establish himelf.

Konerko : age 20-23 never had a minor league season with OPS under 1 , also took till age 24 to establish himself full.


Butler ( if you want a bad body comp, Butler's it, and probably worse, but Butler was also MUCH more impressive in the minors ) : .291/.412/.542 age 21 in AAA PCL

Morales : .341/.376/.543 PCL AAA age 25, 341/.385/.486 age 24

Loney : he is about the only case I can see where there isnt a consistently dominant track record in the higher minors. as he was pretty meh in AA before putting up a 380/.426/.546 in 98 AAA games.


The conclusion here though, is that even the AVERAGE 1B in the bigs pretty much massacered AAA.

My understanding is that whenever scouts discussed Overbay they always seemed to reference Hal Morris and not in a positive way.

After sleeping on it, I think this gives the Phils the division. Now hoping the Braves can hang on for the wild card and fulfill my dream of sending Cox out a WS winner as a wild card who beat his division champion in the LCS.

I, for one, am not at all disappointed to see Wallace go. I don't know if Gose will ever even make it to MLB, but it is impossible to get excited about Wallace as a 1B. I am *hoping* that the Jays keep Bautista, and start him at third next year, with Lind at first and Snider in RF.

you know goodnwell what grrls do when things are BAD news.
first we eat too much ice cream
then we go shopping for shoes

When most of the women I know get news this bad, it usually ends with somebody hacksawing the limbs off of a corpse in the bathtub and then wrapping the whole mess in plastic and dropping it in the river.

Don't forget to use bleach when you're done, to fool tests for blood. We would miss you if you got caught.

vlad

appreciate the advice, but honestly i don't want fast eddie/drayton/tal stinking up my nice clean home

and at least on tv, bleach does not seem to do the trick with blood
and it sure nuff doesn't get bloodstains out of clothing, but peroxide does...

My son in Richmond and I are going to meet in DC for Saturday's and Sunday's games. Too bad we didn't know how the Oswalt deal would go down or we could have done tonight instead of Sunday (or maybe all three games).

I expect DC to be swarming with Phillies' fans again this weekend just like opening day. Sorry Joey B and others who hated the last onslaught. Your day will come with all that young pitching and your new catcher.

Interesting thing about Taylor for Wallace for Gose; I don't think anyone in Philly (or in the front office) has ever thought of Gose as being as strong a prospect as Taylor.

Someone got snookered. But who?

and at least on tv, bleach does not seem to do the trick with blood

Doesn't remove the stain, necessarily, but does destroy the DNA. Also ammonia.

But never use bleach and ammonia together. Or even use the same pail, even if you think you washed it.

The combination releases chlorine gas, which was one of the poison gases used in WW I. It will kill you.

The combination releases chlorine gas, which was one of the poison gases used in WW I. It will kill you.

Jesus.

The combination releases chlorine gas, which was one of the poison gases used in WW I. It will kill you.


Jesus.

Not Jesus, dummy, you! Jesus has super lungs made of iron.

The conclusion here though, is that even the AVERAGE 1B in the bigs pretty much massacered AAA.

I'll add one, Brett's college teammate Ike Davis,.317/.404/.575 in AA/AAA

Brett has 201 games in AAA (PCL- half in LV a great hitters park) and he's at .299/.357/.484 in AAA

League in the PCL the past 2 years has been 343/422, so we're talking about a 119 OPS+ in AAA (without adjusting for park, it's likely 115 or so when accounting for LV)

LaRoche hit "only" 295/.360/.466 in AAA, but that was the IL, league was .265/.327/.401, so we're talking about a 126 OPS+
This is Brett's problem- basically EVERY guy you mentioned outhit him in the high minors- and we're talking about guys who are collectively average hitters for MLB 1Bs.

His other problem? He hit .337/.427/.530 at age 21 in A/AA, he hit .423/.500/.719 in Arizona State at age 20, .410/.526/.753 at age 21
methinks that's all there is, he's the SAME hitter he was when he was 20, no or negligible development since then.

His teammate Ike at Ariz hit .346/.400/.532 at 20 and .385/.457/.742 at 21
Ike outhit Brett in the high minors, and his MLB prrformance to date is much better than Bretts' mles. Brett Wallace simply has failed to develop, that happens, was it something which could have been seen ahead of time? bad body? statistically? by a really good scout? I dunno.

I expect DC to be swarming with Phillies' fans again this weekend just like opening day. Sorry Joey B and others who hated the last onslaught. Your day will come with all that young pitching and your new catcher.

I indeed hope to live to see the day when Nats fans take over the Cit.

Doesn't remove the stain, necessarily, but does destroy the DNA. Also ammonia.

Anyone else starting to wonder what snapper does in his spare time?