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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 460 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   1. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5885023)
When I first submitted this Brugge were up 2-0, but now it's tied and they're a man down so they'll probably lose.
   2. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 02:58 PM (#5885028)
Brugge held on for a draw, good for them. Both of their goals were a bit, um, unconventional. Atalanta lost at home to Shakhtar which probably probably means they're done. Too bad, I was really excited.

Worried that Bayern put Tottenham's unsettled team to the sword.
   3. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:04 PM (#5885034)
Atalanta should have won today, but a draw might not even have been enough for them. Shakhtar was only a slight underdog to them in the group coming in. They really are toast now, especially since City won't have clinched top spot by time Atalanta/City play a second time. 6 points for Atalanta almost certainly won't be enough, so they will at the very least need to get something from City, and it might need to be a win.
   4. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5885039)
MCoA had the xG as 1.5 (+pen) - 1.5. 538 had it as 2.9 (inc. pen) - 1.2! That's quite a difference. Also won non-shot xG by 0.7 (same 538 margin as xG without pens)
   5. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5885044)
Spurs look really good so far. Son is so god damn good. And Aurier is still a RB, he may pick up some stupid reds, but he's a functional RB. And Ndombele!
   6. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5885049)
Ugh, Lewandowski is also good. By the end there, Tottenham was getting a bit stretched in midfield. Not having a true DM will do that. More goals in this game, I expect. Tottenham also look quite dangerous going forward.
   7. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5885051)
Spurs looked much better than they have in weeks, especially considering the competition. Unlucky to be down. They've given up space to Bayern, but in the end it came down to two great finishes. Spurs might have had the 3 best xG chances of the half.
   8. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5885054)
ok well now they have given up bigger chances already in 10 minutes than the entire first half. And paid for them both.
   9. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5885056)
Harry Winks has been absolutely shocking in this game. So many awful giveaways. If he's doing that, put Dier in there.
   10. Baldrick Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5885058)
More goals in this game, I expect

Turns out: yes.
   11. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5885070)
Bayern looked really good in those last 5 minutes. Retained all the control, stayed organized, took one chance and finished it. Spurs looked tired.
   12. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5885072)
I can't wait to see the xG for the City game.
   13. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5885074)
Bayern is absolutely ruthless when you give up. Like City in that regard.
   14. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5885076)
Olympiacos losing to Red Star probably helps Spurs, at least.
   15. spivey Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:59 PM (#5885082)
This is absurd but shot xG and non-shot xG according to 538 were about equal or slightly in Tottenham's favor. That feels wrong to me, but Gnabry and Bayern were absolutely ruthless in taking their chances.
   16. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5885095)
Yeah Bayern ahead only slightly in both (absent the penalty). Bigger difference for MCoA. City dominated again, of course. 538 had them with 3.4 - 0.1 xG, and an absolutely ridiculous 5.7 - 0.2 non-shot xG.
   17. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5885100)
City dominated again, of course. 538 had them with 3.4 - 0.1 xG, and an absolutely ridiculous 5.7 - 0.2 non-shot xG.


Thank you!
   18. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5885101)
In last year's CL (group and KOs), no team had over 4 non-shot xG in any single game. This year we've already seen it happen 3 times in 24 games, twice today. The other two were much smaller margins: Real Madrid 4.7 - 1.1 Brugge, and Bayern 5.1 - 0.6 Red Star (the only other game with a more than 4 non-shot xG margin).
   19. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5885102)
CL xG links:

https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics (MCoA)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ (538)
   20. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5885105)
Is there a site that shows xG for the day's fixtures without showing which team is which? (So by fixture, but with teams listed alpha and xG highest-to-lowest, for example) Would be a neat way of deciding what match to watch without spoiling the result.
   21. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5885109)
hmm. probably not, but if you really want to do something like that and have time to futz about, you can download the 538 excel spreadsheet, create a new column for combined xG or non-shot xG, then hide the xG and non-shot XG per team columns, then filter by date and CL games. Could take 5 minutes if you know very basic excel.
   22. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 06:32 PM (#5885121)
The announcer at the end of the game said Spurs have never given up as many as 7 at home in their history, in any competition.
   23. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 07:19 PM (#5885128)
Only twioe in the EPL last year did a team reach 4,0+ non-shot xG, both by City of course. Games over 3.0 were relatively rare as well, with almost all of them coming from top 6, and seemingly half of them by City.

This year in the EPL 3.0+ non-shot xG has been done 6 times in 70 games, half of them by City (the other 3 were Liverpool home to Newcastle, Arsenal home to Tottenham, and Watford home to West Ham (losers 1-3). The highest of the 6 was 3.8.
   24. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 01, 2019 at 07:40 PM (#5885132)
The 5.72 non-shot xG for City today was the 4th largest ever in 538's data set, which has non-shot xG data for 14,000 games. the higher 3 are:

1. EPL December 2, 2017: Arsenal home to Manchester United (6.58-1.38), a game Manchester United won 1-3 (despite getting absolutely walloped in regular xG as well, 5.41-1.88).
2. EPL May 9, 2018: Chelsea home to Huddersfield (6.1-0.22), a 1-1 draw. Regular xG was a relatively pedestrian 2.4-0.78.
3. La Liga April 29, 2018: Barcelona away to Deportivo (5.92-1.78). Barca won 4-2. Regular shot XG was fairly close: 3.95-2.78.

Only 6 away teams (out of 14.000) had a non-shot xG of 4.0+, and Barca was the only one over 5.0 (Barca was the highest for an away team by 1.6 non-shot xG! Second highest road number was 4.31)
Home teams were 5.0+ 14 times, most recently Leeds over Wigan last spring (a 1-2 loss). 4.0+ about 50 times.

You may have noticed a bit of a theme above. In many of these games, including Bayern last week, and both Real Madrid and City today, the dominant team had a hard time scoring for whatever reason and were not leading, so kept the pressure on almost all game.

edit: speaking of City, the 8-0 demolition of Watford was the #1 highest regular XG in 538's data set: 7.07. (Also the highest xG differential.) Non-shot xG of "just" 3.8 (still tied for highest in the EPL this year). Second highest was very close: Barca (7.04) home to Deportivo in December 2017, though that was just a 4-0 victory.

You might ask why leagues like Austria (Salzburg and a bunch of minnows) don't have higher non-shot xG numbers. They might... but 538 only tracks xG and non-shot xG for the more prominent leagues.
   25. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 01, 2019 at 08:38 PM (#5885163)
Was at work so wasn't watching but just following text coverage. Consensus seemed to be Spurs were really good in the first half and unlucky to be behind 2-1 going into half, and then just got walloped in the second half. xG totals seem to indicate it was absurd finishing/luck for Munich. Scoreline is awful either way.
   26. Mefisto Posted: October 01, 2019 at 09:15 PM (#5885195)
@24: That Arsenal/United game was DeGea's greatest performance: 14 saves, 12 in the first 60 minutes.
   27. jmurph Posted: October 02, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5885371)
absurd finishing/luck for Munich

The absurd finishing part is just objectively true- maybe literally all 7 goals were just incredibly well struck. But I'd also argue their attacking players had a loooooot of time to pick out most of those shots. So "luck" feels off to me, but I'd also agree that the same exact game played out again is unlikely to produce 7 goals for Bayern. If that makes any sense.
   28. spivey Posted: October 02, 2019 at 09:57 AM (#5885384)
jmurph - I initially thought that, but thinking back on a number of them, I really think the main one where that's true is Gnabry's 1st goal (to go up 3-1) and 3rd goal (to go up 5-2). Kimmich's first shot was a pot shot where he created some good space with a little shimmy, but it's still a low percentage shot against a good keeper. Lewa's second goal is extremely low xG.

Gnabry's goal to go up 3-1 I think was probably very high xG, although if you look where defenders are it may seem otherwise. He was able to cut inside, and then with a clever feint got Toby's attempt for a block neutralized, because Toby thought he'd shoot a split second sooner. Really at that point, he's basically just able to smash into the corner from 12 yards out with no one in his way. Gnabry's second goal was with his weak foot from a poor angle, and he wasn't even looking at goal. I'd argue he scores pretty rarely in that scenario. It had to be placed perfectly and even still Lloris got a hand on it. Gnabry's hat trick goal was extremely well taken and while kind of one on one, he was sprinting full speed while being closed down by Lloris and a defender was right on his side. My experience from watching soccer is those aren't really that high of xG chances (probably just like .25 or so?). Gnabry's 4th was an absurd low percentage chance through traffic and Lewa's second was a decent but not super high xG, he just had to snap-shot side foot it.

All this said, I don't think the performance or tactics should be washed away with xG. Winks cannot play DM, and makes way too risky passes and decisions. Ndombele and Dembele did that a bit too, but generally had the strength and athleticism to where if they ###### up, could either blow up the play/player, or just shoulder a guy to re-take the ball immediately. Winks also gets horribly lost on positioning all of the time, he is not a shield for the back 4. Ndombele isn't fit, though he's the only guy with any quality. The diamond shape doesn't give width and also mostly means that Son isn't tracking back to help. Most good teams that are playing 4-3-3 both have the midfielders putting in shifts and are more positionally aware, but importantly they are also getting their wingers, or at least one of them to track back and help on defense. Gnabry is a good example. When Spurs had Bayern pinned back, he was back behind the ball. I question the fitness of the team, which in some respects seems like it's been broken since the World Cup. But the tactics aren't doing any favors. Aurier and Rose caught a lot of ####, but the frequency at which Tottenham have asked their back line to defend attackers 1-on-1 in space over the last ~year is really awful. No fullback in the world is going to be able to check Gnabry over and over and over without any winger or midfield help.
   29. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 10:21 AM (#5885391)
statsbomb's xG (used by FBRef, as I understand it), had the game as 2.7-1.6 in favor of Spurs.
   30. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5885404)
statsbomb had it as almost exactly the inverse of MCoA: 1.95 (+pen) - 1.6 instead of 1.4 (+pen) - 2.1
   31. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 02, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5885412)
Everybody hates the diamond and thinks it's part of the problems affecting Spurs ... except, well Poch it seems.

Sources have told ESPN FC that some senior players are not happy with the tactical systems, starting with the diamond midfield 4-3-1-2, recently used by Pochettino. It enables Son Heung Min and Harry Kane to play together up front but the midfield is more exposed, as are the flanks, and Spurs have only kept two clean sheets this season (against Crystal Palace and Colchester) in 10 matches in all competitions.

Then there is the flat 4-4-2, also used this season, which left Tottenham too weak in central midfield, as we saw against Arsenal. Against Bayern, Pochettino started with a 4-3-1-2 and then moved to a 4-4-2 after 30 minutes when his team started to struggle. Neither worked. "We get tired too quickly physically when we play with a diamond midfield," Moussa Sissoko admitted on French TV channel RMC Sport on Tuesday night.

The players also don't understand why Pochettino has told them to dial back the pressing, a tactic that was a success last season.


Winks/Sissoko really feels similar to Mason/Bentaleb back in Poch's 1st season, except back then there was an argument to be made that pairing was simply the best available at the time.
   32. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5885517)
Genk doing Liverpool a favor with the draw today against Napoli.
   33. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5885562)
Suarez with a beautiful and difficult volley to bring Barca level. They'd been doing very little positive before that.
   34. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5885563)
Livepool not doing Liverpool a favor blowing a three goal lead at Anfield.
   35. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5885566)
Liverpool up 3-0 and cruising at home, so I switch away. 20 minutes of game time later and it's level at 3-3. WTF.
   36. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5885570)
Livepool not doing Liverpool a favor blowing a three goal lead at Anfield.


LOL
   37. jmurph Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5885576)
Ahh, late goals ruining all the fun.
   38. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5885577)
And now Messi's driving run sets up Suarez. We've seen that before, but not much recently. Shame for Inter, as they'd looked quite good today, or at lest Barrca looked bad.
   39. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 02, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5885591)
Ajax wins big again--in each game they have lost the xG matchup though. They are by no means guaranteed to advance out of the group. Probably would have been better for Chelsea had they lost or drawn to Valencia, but really it's too early to say.
   40. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 02, 2019 at 06:45 PM (#5885614)
Because, of course he is ...

Recent USMNT debutante Sergiño Dest played all 90 minutes of Ajax’s 3–0 romp over Valencia in the Champions League today. Under normal circumstances, that would be cause for unbridled celebration, since Dest is just 18 years old and has already risen through the ranks of one of Europe’s best academies to assume an everyday role on a team that went to the Champions League semifinals last year. However, Dest’s bright turn came on the very same day he made it known that his international future might not be with the United States.

When the USMNT announced their 26-man roster for next week’s games against Cuba and Canada, Dest’s name was the most conspicuous omission. Dest led the USA U-20 team earlier this summer at the U-20 World Cup, then earned his first two caps for the USMNT senior team last month. He was identified as a possible “next big thing” for the U.S. program and seemed primed to lock down one of the full back spots for a decade. Unfortunately for the U.S., Dest has made a name for himself so quickly at Ajax that the Dutch national team has come calling.

Dest, the son of a Surinamese-American father and a Dutch mother, was born and raised in the Netherlands. Though he has played in the U.S. system since 2016 and has those two USMNT caps, he is still eligible to play for the Dutch. The Washington Post’s Steven Goff reported today that Dutch skipper Ronald Koeman met with Dest last week, and that Dest himself declined his USMNT call-up to take more time to decide his international future.


Wouldn't you?

Deadspin
   41. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 02, 2019 at 08:09 PM (#5885637)
Yeah, it’s kind of hard to argue with Dest on this one. All things equal playing for the Netherlands is leaps and bounds better than playing for the US. Given that he grew up in the Netherlands it seems like a no brainer.
   42. The Marksist Posted: October 03, 2019 at 09:32 AM (#5885806)
I won't say the Liverpool game was fun, exactly, but I was definitely impressed by Salzburg. They clearly know what they want to do and do it pretty damn well. Liverpool is obviously less solid defensively this year than last (at least so far), and I'm not a savvy enough observer to pinpoint why, but it feels like the big vulnerability is in quick attacks/susceptibility to counterpressing?

Anyway, the overriding thing I noticed in this game (and this is a theme for me) is just how small the margins are in soccer. I mean, Mane's opener barely squeaks by the keeper, and Van Dijk probably blocks the cross for Haaland's equalizer 9 out of 10 times. The role of near misses like that, not to mention deflections, is so important to so many key plays and goals it's wild.
   43. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5885812)
I really didn't anticipate that Spurs would be the high drama club this year.
   44. spivey Posted: October 03, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5885814)
538 has Salzburg as the 12th best team in the world, above Tottenham and Napoli, among others. They sold several of their best players but the replacements seem like they may be better. Their GD is incredible so far this year, and I think I read they have a ~70+ unbeaten match streak at home. They are no longer just a pesky Pot C/D team from a small league, they're legitimately a team that can make a run in the CL. Hwang absolutely made a fool of VVD on the first goal, and though I just saw the highlights, from what I've seen/read, VVD and Gomez had pretty poor games, for them.
   45. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5885822)
I really didn't anticipate that Spurs would be the high drama club this year.


The only thing that can make it better now is the rumblings beginning about Kane wanting out.
   46. jmurph Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5885823)
What do you guys make of the Pulisic stuff? Didn't even make the bench yesterday, with no indication of injury or fitness issues.
   47. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5885827)
He's only there (instead of out on loan) as break-glass-in-case-of-emergency cover during the transfer ban, IMO. He'll go out next summer.
   48. spivey Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5885829)
It's unclear to me why Pulisic has been frozen out, though he's always been a bit of an over-dribbler that turns the ball over too much for the truly top sides. He probably will get a chance or two somewhere along the way, perhaps just in cups, and he'll have to capitalize on it. This isn't that unique, for whatever it's worth. Breaking into top teams is really tough, especially at the attacking positions. Ceballos and Odegaard at Real are good examples, and both are frankly probably better players than Pulisic.
   49. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5885831)
My optimism about Pulisic's move to Chelsea seems to have been misplaced.
   50. spivey Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5885833)
As for Kane, this may be blasphemy - his skill level is still high, and he's a very smart player, but he doesn't seem very fit. Speed/pace was never his strong suit, but he used to be the great tip of a pressing spear, and he's really not.

I've seen a lot of conjecture around Spurs, their formations, their lack of pressing and if Poch wants them to press more or less. I don't know that the team has the fitness and hunger to press like they did a while back. At least, not without Lamela and Alli out there, who have their own fitness concerns. All this is to say, for the right price I wouldn't be against Spurs selling Kane. I can't help but worry his best years are behind him. As is, I don't think he's better than Firmino, and he definitely isn't at the tier of Lewa, and I think a few years ago he was.
   51. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5885836)
538 tends to overrate dominant teams from less-fancied leagues. There could be a couple reasons for this: 1) their league adjustments generally are pretty bad, and they may have trouble figuring out how good some of these bottom of the table teams are in these leagues, and 2) they don't track xG and non-shot xG in the less fancied leagues, so all the ranking weight is on scoreline, which tends to exaggerate differences (xG and non-shot xG regress the results a little bit).

ELO had Salzburg 17th, still good but significantly behind Tottenham, and slightly behind Napoli.

Betting odds does not give Salzburg a high chance of advancing from the group: 24% or so (51% for 538).
   52. jmurph Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5885839)
This isn't that unique, for whatever it's worth. Breaking into top teams is really tough, especially at the attacking positions. Ceballos and Odegaard at Real are good examples, and both are frankly probably better players than Pulisic.

Pulisic was dramatically more expensive than either of those guys, and I think Chelsea pretty clearly don't have the same attacking talent that Madrid had/have. I think this is honestly fairly unique.

EDIT: If it continues this way, that is. It's still early in the season.
   53. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5885840)
I think that part of the issue with Pulisic at Chelsea is that Mount tends to drift to the left so that he and Pulisic were occupying the same space. I think this is fixable, over time, but the pressure to win at Chelsea may mean the time won't be given.
   54. ckash Posted: October 03, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5885878)
If Chelsea persist with the 3-4-3 I’d like to see Pulisic get a look at LW. He can’t be any worse/disinterested in defense than Alonso is and he could be the left side version of Victor Moses for a couple of seasons.
   55. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5885883)
When I've seen Pulisic play, he's not much of a defender.
   56. Sean Forman Posted: October 03, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5885916)
Where does 538 publish their xG?

As someone alluded above we have added xG from statsbomb to FBref.com. Also finally got the major domestic cup competitions on there as well as a bunch of youth league info.
   57. Sean Forman Posted: October 03, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5885917)
Also based on our xG at least. Pulisic is getting a bit screwed. He's been decently productive in xG+xA.
   58. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5885959)
538 xG. You have to select a competition and then matches. You can also download all their past match data in excel, from the same website.

udnerstat.com also publishes xG, but only for the big 4 + France and Russia.
   59. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5885966)
United look awful.
   60. jmurph Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:17 PM (#5885968)
United look awful.

Surely they could get Allegri there, like, tomorrow if they wanted, right?
   61. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5885980)
Van Gaal is at the stadium watching.
   62. frannyzoo Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5885987)
Pepe with some major Matador Defense to give Feyenoord their second goal. Porto just ain't Porto these days and old fogies like Pepe are a big reason.
   63. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5885991)
Only was able to watch the last 15 minutes of the Wolves game, during which time they generally dominated. Had a goal called back for offside on a very close play (no VAR in Europa). Probably was onside.

edit: and now they got one on a defensive breakdown, leaving the attacker Boly all by himself right in front of gial. Too easy! Very good for Wolves, as they are now back in good shape in their group.

Highlights show Wolves may have been a bit lucky earlier in the game.
   64. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5885993)
Lingard came off to what looks like a hamstring injury.
   65. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 03, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5886022)
From The Graun:

This was, I’m told, the first time in the entire recorded history of all time that Manchester United have played a Europa League game without mustering so much as a single shot on target
   66. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5886025)
ok that's bad, but I'm only counting a total of 21 Europa league games for United, in the history of time. That's like half an EPL season.

The Europa league has only been around since 2009.

edit: oops sorry. 25 games, 7 of which were losses. In fact, in United's first two times at Europa they had 5 losses (and a draw) in 8 games. A pathetic 0-0 draw on the road starting a bunch of backups hardly seems like the low point in their history.
   67. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5886028)
United are pretty much out of players at this point. I saw on one United site that they only had 21 players total available today, and the lineup demonstrated that many of those were youth team.
   68. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5886030)
In more important news, if Dudelange wanted to keep the fairy tale going they had to at least draw the second worst team in their group at home today. Down 0-2 at the half though, so it's looking bleak.
   69. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 03, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5886034)
I think it's more the "without mustering a single shot on target" part.

Anyway, never mind that #### ...


2m ago 21:00

Jon Tumbridge is as close as I’ve got to an eyewitness. “A friend in Baku tells me that the Qarabag match has been suspended, as a drone with a ‘Qarabag Republic’ flag has been flown over the stadium,” he writes. “Both teams are off, they have found the pilot and the local plod are having a chat with the miscreant.”
Facebook
Twitter

11m ago 20:50

Mad scenes at Dudelange, where the match has been abandoned, apparently because of a drone invasion!
   70. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5886035)
oh I see the Europa league is also the UEFA cup prior to 2009. Let me see how many games United played there since 1971.

edit: 20 more by my count. so 45 total games in 48 years.
   71. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 03, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5886039)
Pretty sure they just restarted the game at Dudelange.
   72. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 09:00 AM (#5886748)
Brighton crowd chanting "We want seven!"
   73. spivey Posted: October 05, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5886756)
Didn’t watch the match but Tottenham got destroyed in xG, sounds like they got pressed off the field, and Lloris is out for the year with a gruesome injury. Also sounds like Eriksen has given up and I heard Toby was also ####.

Poch probably has to go, but I think the guys out of contract that want to leave just need to be benched. Foyth and Sanchez at CB. KWP at RB. Alli, Kane, Son and Moura haven’t given up. Play them only. Lamela as an 8. At least try that. I wouldn’t even put Eriksen in the squad the next few games.
   74. strong silence Posted: October 05, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5886758)
Still gonna be a fun EPL season but I wanted 3 or 4 teams competing for the top spot rather than 6-7 competing for 4th position.
   75. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: October 05, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5886761)
Spurs were just awful all the way around. There was a point in the second half when Brighton were tapping it around inside the Spurs half and made a few dozen passes without Spurs being able to have much say in the matter. At that point Brighton weren't really trying to score so nothing came of it, but it was just tragic to see. And Alderweireld has turned into a turnover in human form.

I think Sissoko is also still trying hard, he's just such a clumsy player that trying harder might only make him worse. Moura looked great when he came on. All of Spurs' offense late was him inventing something out of nothing.
   76. jmurph Posted: October 05, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5886766)
Starting to get genuinely concerned that Liverpool is going 38-0-0.
   77. strong silence Posted: October 05, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5886769)
Concerned? How about Excited? Try being a a neutral and enjoy a talented squad unseen before in the EPL.
   78. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5886770)
Spurs were bad. Their first half was very bad, second only pretty bad. I thought Sissoko played with a lot of effort, FWIW.

Brighton was a favorite for relegation preseason, but except for the game against Chelsea last week, they've actually played fairly well this year so far. They are close to flat on xGD (even with the Chelsea xG demolition) if you don't count the one penalty against them.
   79. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5886772)
Bayern are in trouble. They are down for the second time in the game and trail 2-1 in the 84th.
   80. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5886775)
It's madness in the Bundesliga. Freiburg has also leveled against Dortmund.
   81. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5886776)
Niko Kovac bears more than a passing resemblance to Joseph Gordon-Leavitt.
   82. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5886777)
My iPad wants to correct Niko Kovac to “Nike Koufax.”
   83. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5886778)
Does anyone know if it's possible to query xG by date range?

I'd like to know Spurs' xGA and XGD since 1/1/2019 with and without Kane starting since the turn of the year.
   84. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5886779)
Schalke or Gladbach could be leading the league after this weekend.
   85. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5886780)
Well, these are officially dark times, when even the masthead at CFC concludes the match write-up with the following:

I’ll have more to say about this later but this match clinched it for me — Pochettino has got to go. He’s lost the players. It’s time for a change.
   86. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5886781)
Does anyone know if it's possible to query xG by date range?

I'd like to know Spurs' xGA and XGD since 1/1/2019 with and without Kane starting since the turn of the year.
You can do this in 2 parts on understat. Current year (obviously), but aslo previous year date range. League only though. Maybe FBref will have more functionality for this.

You can also download 538's excel data and do it yourself pretty easily (link at the bottom of this this page).
   87. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5886782)
Wolfsburg will also go ahead of Bayern if they beat Union.
   88. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5886784)
#86 Thanks
   89. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5886787)
What a ###### by Leicester. Fair penalty.
   90. jmurph Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5886789)
What a gift. My god.
   91. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5886790)
Yeah. I know it’s not strictly the same thing but I was thinking about something they said on Football Weekly this week. Teams are so intent on playing out from the back that mistakes are getting made. I know that’s not quite what Albrighton was doing but if he puts that out for a corner and just gets set the penalty doesn’t happen. Teams just aren’t willing/able to take the least objectionable alternative, they are compelled to play with it.
   92. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5886792)
538's xG was 4.4 - 0.1
   93. jmurph Posted: October 05, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5886793)
Yeah to be clear Liverpool were obviously the better team.
   94. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5886795)
Norwich has looked decent in really just 2 games this year. Home to hapless Newcastle and the miraculous game against City. If it weren't for Newcastle being so bad (and maybe this game against United will cure Newcastle of their ills), Norwich would be the most favorite team to go down.
   95. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5886798)
Another league with an absolute logjam at the top is the Championship. 9 teams within 3 points of the leading total after 11 games.
   96. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5886808)
In case anyone is curious, Spurs EPL xGD via understat since 1/1/2019 (26 games) is about +0.70, with or without penalties. Basically flat. Maybe not too surprising, their record is exactly .500 over those 26 games: 11 wins and losses. 4 draws.
   97. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5886811)
Wow, just ugh.




As reported on air: Hugo Lloris was screaming in agony as was carried through the tunnel. He was given extra morphine to counter the pain. He has been taken hospital by ambulance. #THFC #BHATOT @btsport

— Des Kelly (@DesKellyBTS) October 5, 2019


   98. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5886814)
#96 No surprises, I saw this a month ago over at Statsbomb: Spurs xGA v xGD 08/13/2017 - 09/01/2019

Not a good trendline ...
   99. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: October 05, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5886822)
Update on Hugo:

Hugo Lloris suffered a dislocated elbow as Tottenham lost 3-0 at Brighton on Saturday, a source has told ESPN FC.

Lloris failed to hold on to Pascal Gross' third minute cross at the AMEX Stadium and landed awkwardly in the goalmouth as Neal Maupay nodded in Brighton's opener.

The France international, who won the World Cup with his country in 2018, required on field treatment as oxygen was administered before he was taken away on a stretcher. Lloris was then transferred to a nearby hospital.

The 32-year-old underwent a serious of scans and tests which revealed no fracture and he is expected to leave hospital on Saturday night. While it is too early to put a date on his return, the source said Lloris can expect to be missing for up to two months, possibly more. The source added that Lloris will travel to Paris on Monday to meet the France national team doctor. He will undergo another series of tests in Paris on Monday to try and determine the extent of the problem and will then return to London to start his rehabilitation.


Obviously bad, but could have been worse.

Yeesh, what a season ... and it's only October.
   100. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5886826)
Palace gets a (probable) late winner after a reversal by VAR--2 separate moments where the Palace players were onside by an inch or less.
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