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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 460 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   301. manchestermets Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:33 PM (#5898330)
flip.
   302. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5898331)
There was the Dele handball VAR and then the terrible injury to Gomez. Both incidents took a long time, especially the latter.


Not saying I disagree ... I've just never seen that much time before ...
   303. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5898332)
0.2 xG for Tottenham (538). Their goal seemed to have a higher xG than that all by itself, so they must really had had just nothing the rest of the game. And now unless Kane comes back ASAP they will be without both Son and Kane for Sheffield at home.
   304. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5898336)
Prior to the injury and sending off, understat had the game as even, but essentially a nothing. xG of 0.26-0.24. Tottenham didn't get anything the rest of the way, but Everton had a couple of big chances and converted one of them.

Prior to minute 60, understat had Spurs at 0.03 xG.
   305. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5898351)
Michael Cox saying on twitter that he would like to have the rules changed so that all intentional fouls with no attempt to play the ball are made reds. I'd actually be fine with this, so long as the foul creates even a little chance of injury (which is pretty much the case for any foul that brings down a player). All other intentional fouls (including City grabbing in the offensive zone after giving up the ball) should be automatic yellows, IMHO.

Why not make the players actually play soccer? The intentional fouling only slows down the flow of the game, and reduces goals from open play (the best kind of goals), so there's no good reason to retain it.

Son's foul was a yellow all day every day, but is almost never a red in the EPL. But if the rules were changed every foul like that would be a red. Why not? It's not "soccer" as far as I'm concerned.
   306. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 03, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5898420)
The first bullet point from over at CFC on today's game:

I think this team has broken me. This season has been a nightmare and today’s performance did nothing to make me think otherwise.
   307. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 11:57 PM (#5898423)
From Poch:
In the moment it was a little bit confusing because no one knew on the pitch when [the injury happened], everyone believed it was a bad tackle. After when everyone watched on TV, [it was clear] the action was very, very bad luck.


I should have thought about it, but I never considered that players on the field might have thought that Son came through his ankle so nastily that the contact did the damage directly. Maybe even Son didn't know for sure. What a nightmare that must have been for everyone.
   308. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 04, 2019 at 09:16 PM (#5898642)
On Sunday, Balotelli was the target for monkey chants during Brescia’s game at Verona. In the 55th minute, he responded. Fighting to keep the ball in play down by the corner flag, Balotelli turned suddenly and lashed it up towards supporters.

Chaos ensued. The referee, Maurizio Mariani, booked Balotelli for unsportsmanlike behaviour. Balotelli threatened to walk off. Players from both teams intervened, talking Balotelli down while also informing officials of the abuse he had received. Mariani waved off the yellow card and suspended the game, instructing the stadium announcer to warn fans it would be abandoned if the chants continued.

After a delay of almost five minutes, play resumed. Verona, already leading through a goal from Eddie Salcedo, extended their advantage through Matteo Pessina. Balotelli responded with a spectacular strike from the edge of the D, struck first time off his right instep into the top corner. It was not enough to rescue Brescia from a 2-1 defeat.

The situation only got worse after the final whistle, when the Verona manager, Ivan Juric, flatly denied any racist abuse had taken place. “I’m not afraid to say that nothing happened,” he said. “There was loud whistling and mockery but no racist chant. There was nothing. I am a Croatian and I hear ‘Gypsy piece of shit’ sometimes because unfortunately that is the tendency in Italy but today there was nothing.”

What possessed him to take such a hard line only he can know. In any case, he was wrong. Juric might not have heard the monkey chants but several of his players did and they were plainly audible on a fan-shot video that circulated on Sunday evening.

This has too often been the default mode for clubs whose fans stand accused of racist chanting: to mount an aggressive defence first – often calling into question the integrity of the victim – and ascertain the facts of what happened later. The Verona president, Maurizio Setti, supported his manager’s line, claiming his team’s supporters were simply “sarcastic, not racist”.
   309. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:13 AM (#5898704)
The situation only got worse after the final whistle, when the Verona manager, Ivan Juric, flatly denied any racist abuse had taken place. “I’m not afraid to say that nothing happened,” he said. “There was loud whistling and mockery but no racist chant. There was nothing. I am a Croatian and I hear ‘Gypsy piece of shit’ sometimes because unfortunately that is the tendency in Italy but today there was nothing.”
My wife was just in Croatia with a couple of her Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) friends, and let's just say that after her experience I'm never going to take a Croatian saying "that's just [wherever]" seriously.
   310. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5898758)
From ESPN:
On Tuesday, the Gazzetta dello Sport published a motion sent to the Verona council by four councillors proposing that "the mayor and the legal offices of the municipality should take legal action against the footballer and all those who attack Verona by unjustly defaming it."

The motion added: "It is no longer fair that Verona is put in the dock when, as in this case, nothing happened."
   311. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5898807)
So Ivanovic (formerly of Chelsea still plays - for Zenit.
   312. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5898817)
Oh man. Leipzig scored, but the tiniest inadvertent touch of an offensive player's hand, which didn't seem to help him control the ball, a pass or two before the goal (I think), and it is called back! That seems absurd.
   313. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5898820)
This goes back to that rule we discussed early in the EPL season. The FIFA rule is below, and in that rule it doesn't seem to matter if the handling created any advantage at all (or of course was intended). The EPL thankfully seems to have a slightly looser interpretation, where an inadvertent handling has to be in at least some way the cause of a goal or goal-scoring opportunity.

“It is a [handball] offense if a player:
◾deliberately touches the ball with their hand/arm, including moving the hand/arm towards the ball
◾gains possession/control of the ball after it has touched their hand/arm and then:
◾scores in the opponents’ goal
◾creates a goal-scoring opportunity

◾scores in the opponents’ goal directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper
   314. spivey Posted: November 05, 2019 at 01:58 PM (#5898837)
I think Carragher is right, we seem to be talking about reffing a lot more now than before VAR, and I don't know that I'd say the match results are clearly more fair either. I've seen some speculation that maybe the standard is higher for overturning things in EPL than in other leagues, though I don't know how much is hearsay. Either way, I'm starting to think the best solution is just to use VAR for offsides calls only. There will always be controversy, but at least that is more of a clear black and white issue.
   315. spivey Posted: November 05, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5898881)
I saw a stat that this was only the 4th time in the last 7 years (36 matches) that Barcelona did not get get a win at home in European competition.

Bayern fired Kovac, and Atletico and Real Madrid are both struggling a lot as well. Juve have a great winning record in Serie A this year, but their GD is pretty pedestrian and they really don't look like one of the best teams in the world. The continental powers may be as weak as they've been in my adult life.

That's the only silver lining I have here for Tottenham (everything must be about Tottenham). As bad as they've looked, and it's bad, Ndombele and Lo Celso are good players and what the team needs. I think some confidence, ideally a return to form from their CBs, and they could be good again. There's a huge power gap right now after Liverpool and City.
   316. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5898901)
Chelsea getting spanked by Ajax at Stamford Bridge. 3-1 at half.
   317. Dale Sams Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5898906)
Ideally I'd like the ref to be the VAR official and go under a hood. If we had refs not afraid to reverse their own decisions

Or just get back to "clear error" and not "offside by a hair" "Was the arm in an unnatural position?? Lets watch it 50 times"
   318. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5898909)
Chelsea game is a ####### mess. 2 reds now to Ajax, both second yellows on the same play. 11 on 9 and penalty to Chelsea.
   319. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5898910)
Already 4-4 now. 20 minutes to go. Could easily end up 7-4.
   320. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5898911)
Unbelievable!!
   321. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5898912)
To be a tiny bit fair to Chelsea, they had effectively cut it to 4-3 (4-2 with penalty call) when it was still 11-11, and Chelsea was dominating the game. Still, they certainly weren't favored to draw level or win at that point yet.
   322. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5898913)
11 on 9, so Pulisic naturally tries to dribble through 2 players and gives up the ball. No matter, some good passing later by Chelsea and it's 5-4 now.

edit: nope. Called back via a handling. This is ref madness today.

edit2: good call actually though, at least according to the rules. The hand contact there effectively set up the goal. (Even though completely inadvertent.) This isn't like the play in the Leipzig game.
   323. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5898914)
VAR overturns a Chelsea goal.
   324. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5898916)
edit2: good call actually though, at least according to the rules. The hand contact there effectively set up the goal. (Even though completely inadvertent.) This isn't like the play in the Leipzig game.


Thank you! I'm not able to watch only looking at the gamecast.
   325. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5898917)
Valencia got their #### together and is finally beating Lille in what should be their easiest game of the group stage. That means this Chelsea/Ajax game is that much more important. And Ajax almost took the lead again!
   326. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5898920)
4-4. Chelsea had a lot of chances in the last 20 minutes, but Ajax had a couple as well, and generally did quite well, considering the numerical disadvantage.
   327. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5898921)
Ajax holds on for the draw. Chelsea can't feel good about two own goals and having a 2 man advantage for 20 minutes and only scoring once.
   328. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 05:03 PM (#5898924)
Seems like there should have been more stoppage time at the end of that game.
   329. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 05:35 PM (#5898927)
Definitely. Announcers were aghast, and apparently Lampard was as well.
   330. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5898928)
Not an ideal result for Chelsea today. If they lose to Valencia now they are very likely out (I think it would just take a win by Ajax over either Valencia or Lille also).

edit: on the other hand, a draw against Valencia would take them most of the way to advancing. It's close to all or nothing in 3 weeks!
   331. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 05, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5898994)
Oops that was definitely wrong. Chelsea could still lose, and so long as Chelsea/Ajax finish level on points without Valencia, Chelsea will advance head to head. That's not too likely to happen though, but it certainly could.

If all finish level on 10 points with Chelsea losing to Valencia, then Chelsea is out on head-to-head points. If all finish level on 10 points with Chelsea beating Valencia (very unlikely, since they'd also have to lose to Lille), then Ajax is out on head-to-head points.

There are 81 remaining permutations, but only a few ways where their would be teams level on points in a way that would require a tie-breaker for advancement to the next round (a lot of these require one or more wins by Lille, so are unlikely). In order of most likely to least likely:

1. Chelsea/Valencia have 10 points. (Valencia beats Chelsea, Ajax beats Valencia). Chelsea is out on head-to-head points. Of all the scenarios that require a 2nd/3rd place tie-break this is the most likely, because the home teams win and everyone beats Lille (or Ajax draws Lille). 10% chance.
2. 4. All 3 have 10 points. (Valencia beating Chelsea, Ajax beats Valencia). Chelsea is out on head-to-head points. Lille has to beat Ajax, but they are at home so maybe they can. 4%.
3. Chelsea/Ajax have 10 points. (Both lose to Valencia). Ajax is out on head-to-head points. Chelsea/Ajax have to both beat Lille. 3%.
4. Ajax/Valencia have 10 points. (Chelsea beats Valencia, Valencia beats Ajax). Valencia is probably out on head-to-head GD, but Ajax could be out on another tie-breaker if they lose by at least 3. The road team wins both big matchups. Everyone beats Lille (or Chelsea draws Lille.) 3%.
5. Ajax/Valencia have 8 points. (Ajax draws Valencia, Chelsea beats Valencia). Valencia is out on head-to-head points. Ajax would have to lose to Lille, but Lille is at home. 2.5%
6. All 3 have 10 points. (Chelsea beating Valencia, Valencia beating Ajax). Ajax is out on head-to-head points. Lille has to beat Chelsea on the road. 2%
7. Chelsea/Valencia have 8 points. (Chelsea draws Valencia. Ajax beats Valencia.) Chelsea is out on head-to-head points. Lille has to beat Chelsea on the road. 1.5%
8. All 3 have 9 points. (All 4 remaining games finish in draws). Valencia is out on head-to-head GD. 0.2%
9. Chelsea/Ajax/Lille have 7 points. (Valencia and Lille beat both Chelsea and Ajax). Chelsea is in on head-to-head points. (Lille has been eliminated). 0.15%
10. Chelsea/Ajax have 8 points. (Both draw Valencia). Ajax is out on head-to-head points. Lille has to beat both Chelsea and Ajax. 0.1%



I'm probably missing some scenario.



   332. Richard Posted: November 06, 2019 at 01:54 AM (#5898998)
Son's red card was overturned.
   333. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5899066)
Son's red card was overturned.


Tough luck for Tottenham to give up 2 points by conceding a goal down a man only for the league to say, oh yeah we goofed.
   334. Mefisto Posted: November 06, 2019 at 10:59 AM (#5899070)
I'm sure that's not a first. Doesn't make it any less painful. Not as painful as Gomez, though.
   335. Mefisto Posted: November 06, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5899072)
I didn't see a response to 293, but my personal observation is that Fred is a turnover machine. The United midfield seems to me to turn over the ball a lot, and I'd pick Fred as the worst offender.
   336. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5899095)
I'm sure that's not a first. Doesn't make it any less painful. Not as painful as Gomez, though.


For sure, 100%. No disrespect to Gomez was meant. I just don't really understand why they couldn't come to the proper conclusion at the time with VAR.
   337. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5899124)
VAR has been very poorly implemented by the EPL all year. It probably should have been overturned with VAR, but it's hardly the worst VAR incident of the year.

The first half of the Arsenal Europa game was unwatchable. I didn't bother turning on the second half, but it looks top be more of the same.

edit: well I guess you only need one shot on target to win.
   338. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:35 PM (#5899131)
Agreed snoozefest. I'm looking forward to Man City Atalanta later today.

EDIT: Vitoria ties it up.
   339. Mefisto Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5899132)
I just don't really understand why they couldn't come to the proper conclusion at the time with VAR.


Yeah, that's fair.
   340. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:44 PM (#5899135)
Oh well, I guess not. Arsenal don't deserve a win anyway.

There are likely going to be some pretty good teams dropped into Europa from the Champions league: Inter, Valencia (or Chelsea/Ajax), Salzburg, maybe Atalanta and Leverkusen. Arsenal would struggle with any of those teams, the way they are playing now.
   341. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5899139)
They didn't really try to win. No Auba. Is he hurt, or did they just take it easy because they have a big lead in the group?
   342. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5899187)
Juve pulls out a late goal to defeat Lokomotiv.
   343. The Marksist Posted: November 06, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5899190)
I'm looking forward to Man City Atalanta later today.


Welp.
   344. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 06, 2019 at 03:45 PM (#5899204)
Guy in the Atalanta wall jumps and turns sideways with his arms at his sides, but since his elbows are bent and his hands are out in front of the body, it creates a slightly bigger silhouette. Penalty. That kind was NEVER given before VAR. If he hadn't turned sideways it would have been no penalty even if it came off the hand, and his silhouette would have been about the same size as it was on this play. The penalty was put way wide anyway.

You really can't jump sideways in the wall anymore. It's a natural reaction but not a good idea,
   345. spivey Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5899208)
Tottenham's first goal is absurd and worth watching.
   346. jmurph Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5899225)
Damn I wish I was watching City-Atalanta! Ederson went off at half, Bravo came on. Now Bravo sent off. Who gets to play in the goal? Presumably Fernandinho, he does everything.

EDIT: It's Walker.
   347. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5899228)
Was Ederson injured?
   348. jmurph Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5899229)
Apparently "precautionary reasons" which I would read as YES.
   349. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5899232)
Apparently "precautionary reasons" which I would read as YES.


Not ideal with Liverpool coming up.
   350. jmurph Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5899233)
Indeed.
   351. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5899235)
City are amazing at wasting time. Holy ####. I hope to never see that again.
   352. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5899236)
2 goals for Shakhtar in injury time. That's probably good for Atalanta. If they can sweep those two other teams playing today, they could actually squeak through the group stage.
   353. spivey Posted: November 06, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5899242)
That City group looks like there's still a bunch of excitement left. Would have been better if Atalanta binked a win of course. It looks like the second stoppage time goal for Shakhtar was due to an elbow to the face of the goalkeeper who was up for a free kick? Oh, and both teams were down a man. Madness!
   354. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 06:20 PM (#5899249)
Pep says Ederson has a muscular injury. They are not sure how serious or whether he will be able to play Sunday vs Liverpool.
   355. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2019 at 07:17 PM (#5899261)
Oh, and both teams were down a man. Madness!

Pretty amusing sequence at 1-1. Zagreb player gets a red card for a second yellow for a stupid challenge, then something like 2 minutes later a Shakhtar player gets a second yellow for a stupid challenge.

Also, if I understand correctly, the penalty was originally given for what turned out to be a dive, but the ref hadn't noticed the elbow to the face. So VAR took away the original penalty call but gave a different one!
   356. manchestermets Posted: November 07, 2019 at 04:58 AM (#5899318)
For sure, 100%. No disrespect to Gomez was meant. I just don't really understand why they couldn't come to the proper conclusion at the time with VAR.


While I can't come up with any logic based reason why they couldn't, were I the VAR official there's no way I'd have wanted to watch that a number of times.
   357. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 10:51 AM (#5899362)
In 4 group games, Ajax has an xGD of -6.1 (4.5 - 10.6), according to 538. That's slightly exaggerated due to penalties and own goals, but still. They've been on the short end of xG in every group game. They should be one of the least favored teams in the knockout stage, assuming they advance, which is likely but still in doubt.
   358. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5899370)
Betting odds have Ajax and Chelsea at 73% to advance, with Valencia at 54%. Based on the schedule and tie breaking scenarios, that means they think Ajax is only a little better than Valencia, with Chelsea as significantly better than both.
   359. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5899375)
That City group looks like there's still a bunch of excitement left.


Definitely. I was kind of hoping that City won yesterday, and then Atalanta and City swept the final two games. I doubt any team has ever come back from 0 points in 4 games. Even so, coming back from 1 out of 4 is highly unusual, and may never have been done either.

Atalanta is definitely not out of it. Odds to advance:
Shakhtar: 62%
Atalanta: 21%
Zagreb: 17%

   360. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5899379)
The other groups with still some intrigue.

Group F to advance:
Barcelona: 90%
Dortmund: 84%
Inter: 26%

Group G to advance:
Leipzig: 97%
Lyon: 74%
Zenit: 24%
Benfica: 6%
   361. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5899387)
As a reminder, these were the odds of qualifying prior to the group stage:

To Qualify (betting odds, approximate):

A: Madrid 90%, PSG 88%, Galatasaray 17%, Brugge 5%
B: Bayern 90%, Spurs 81%, Olympiacos 21%, Red Star 8%
C: City 95%, Atalanta 56% Shakhtar 42%, Zagreb 7%
D: Juve 86%, Atleti 79%, Leverkusen 30%, Lokomotiv 5%
E: Liverpool 90%, Napoli 78%, Salzburg 26%, Genk 6%
F: Barca 90%, Dortmund 56%, Inter 49%, Prague 5%
G: Leipzig 57%, Lyon 54%, Benfica 51%, Zenit 38% (wow, that's a tight range)
H: Chelsea 73%, Ajax 52%, Valencia 49%, Lille 24%

There have been a grand total of 0 real surprises so far. The only team that wasn't favored to advance that is currently favored is Shakhtar, and they were just slight underdogs to Atalanta. The other groups that still have intrigue were the same ones we expected before the group stage started: F (Inter is still alive), G (Lyon, Zenit) and H (Valencia).
   362. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5899503)
Celtic hits the winner in the last minute of extra time, after an excellent second half in Rome.

Even better, Cluj got a late winner home against Rennes, ands so Lazio is all but eliminated from Europa. They need to beat Cluj in Rome, beat Rennes in France, and have Cluj lose to Celtic who might have already clinched top spot in the group before traveling to Cluj for the last game, so could have nothing to play for, and anyway wouldn't need more than a draw to wrap up top spot.
   363. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 07, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5899532)
Hoping for a Roma comeback here in the second half.

EDIT: Fazio scores to make up for his own goal and we're level!
   364. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5899539)
Rangers took the lead against Porto. If they can hold on to win they are in excellent shape to join Celtic in the knockout stages.

United started a ridiculously strong team, considering they almost already had a spot in the next round wrapped up, the quality of their opponent, and their injury history this year. Maybe they wanted to give a run out to all the starters for some reason. Anyway they are predictably dominating.

And a second for Rangers!
   365. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5899554)
Gladbach with the late winner. That group is still wide open. Anyone could advance or not.

Wolves get the late winner as well, so are basically through, and still slight favorites to finish top. They may need to beat Braga in Portugal though to get a top spot. Finishing second could put them up against a very decent team in the round of 32.

Frankfurt lost earlier today, so Arsenal's chance of finishing first in their group is very high. United probably just needs a home draw against Alkmaar to get top spot.
   366. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 07, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5899562)
Gladbach with the late winner. That group is still wide open. Anyone could advance or not.


Disappointing as a Roma fan to give up a late goal. A draw would have put them in a much better position.

United started a ridiculously strong team, considering they almost already had a spot in the next round wrapped up, the quality of their opponent, and their injury history this year. Maybe they wanted to give a run out to all the starters for some reason. Anyway they are predictably dominating.


They must have had a bad taste in their mouth after losing to Bournemouth.
   367. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 07, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5899564)
Definitely. I was kind of hoping that City won yesterday, and then Atalanta and City swept the final two games. I doubt any team has ever come back from 0 points in 4 games. Even so, coming back from 1 out of 4 is highly unusual, and may never have been done either.

I know Newcastle came back from losing the first 3 games in '02, since I happened to be at the game they beat Juventus. And I am 99% sure that had never been done at that point.

Functionally it is almost impossible to go through on 6 points as it is. Since the results have to go juuuust right. Then you also have to sequence them in the right order, and find a team that went 4 straight losses, that is actually good enough to win 2 games. So the odds are super stacked on that ever happening I think.
   368. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 07, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5899568)
The other groups with still some intrigue.

Group F to advance:
Barcelona: 90%
Dortmund: 84%
Inter: 26%

As a Dortmund fan since childhood, I think those odds for Inter are too low. Inter play Prague next, which they should win. Dortmund have to go to Barca next, which Barca is also heavy favourites.

And if results play out like that, Barca has nothing to play for when they go to Italy, having the group wrapped up. And if Inter win, I believe the Dortmund Prague result won't matter, since Inter has the head to head tie-breaker against Dortmund on GD.
   369. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 07, 2019 at 05:56 PM (#5899573)
I could absolutely see Dortmund beating Barca though. I don't know about what the actual betting odds will be but I would give Dortmund a 25-35% chance of winning and maybe an additional 20% chance of getting a draw. As long as they get something out of that game, they can't fall behind Inter even if Inter beats Prague which they should. Then they just need to win their last game against Prague.
   370. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:00 PM (#5899590)
Only under 24% chance currently that Barca and Inter both win their next game. (Barca 59%, Inter 40%). So it's not totally driving the odds. (also, Dortmund winning the Barca game: 19%, draw 22%).


Even if that happens Barca is unlikely to totally roll over, so they will probably be given at least a decent chance of at least snatching a draw at Inter (my guess is around 50% or more).

edit: it's interesting that Inter is given such a low chance to win. But Prague is at home and with a couple wins likely advance,
   371. Richard Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:05 PM (#5899591)
There have been a grand total of 0 real surprises so far. The only team that wasn't favored to advance that is currently favored is Shakhtar, and they were just slight underdogs to Atalanta. The other groups that still have intrigue were the same ones we expected before the group stage started: F (Inter is still alive), G (Lyon, Zenit) and H (Valencia).


It's the same every year.

And that is the whole point of the group stage, of course. To ensure that the biggest clubs go through every year.
   372. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5899592)
Only under 24% chance currently that Barca and Inter both win their next game. (Barca 59%, Inter 40%). So it's not totally driving the odds. (also, Dortmund winning the Barca game: 19%, draw 22%).


Interesting, thank you for finding that stuff.
   373. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:14 PM (#5899593)
So true. And it was just as bad last year. But this year even fewer surprises than you would expect from the odds. At least in 2017-2018 there were a few surprises.
   374. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:25 PM (#5899595)
And that is the whole point of the group stage, of course. To ensure that the biggest clubs go through every year.

Nah. The real point of the group stage is to give the no-hope teams a guaranteed 6 games of revenue instead of 2.
   375. Richard Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:30 PM (#5899596)
Nah. The real point of the group stage is to give the no-hope teams a guaranteed 6 games of revenue instead of 2.


The no hope teams have a chance in a 2 leg tie. they have much less of a chance in a 6 game group. That's why it's like that.
   376. spivey Posted: November 07, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5899600)
I get some of the complaining about the group stages but last years finalists both had their advancing come down to the final seconds of the last match day.
   377. Richard Posted: November 07, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5899605)
I get some of the complaining about the group stages but last years finalists both had their advancing come down to the final seconds of the last match day.


So they went through, as they were supposed to.
   378. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 08, 2019 at 01:53 AM (#5899625)
The Liverpool/City game this weekend is considered almost completely equal, with City a very small favorite. City's expected superiority is almost exactly cancelled out by Liverpool's HFA.
   379. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: November 08, 2019 at 08:45 AM (#5899640)
Barry Glendenning has said it best on Football Weekly. The issue isn't that the (CL Group Stage) games themselves aren't exciting, it's that the end result is that the top 16 revenue teams go through.

I'm curious to see the game on Sunday. I think there is a reasonable chance that unusually for such a game it could end up being pretty wide open. These teams are both so good in attack and so vulnerable defensively that a 3-2 wouldn't surprise me. I also think that while Liverpool would be content with a draw City have such a strong need for three points that they may be a bit more attacking minded than sometimes happens. The game of the year for me has been the Juventus 4-3 Napoli game early in the year. I won't be surprised if this resembles that complete with big comeback. A two goal lead isn't a sure thing this weekend.
   380. spivey Posted: November 08, 2019 at 08:54 AM (#5899642)
I'm not sure what to think of the match, but I think City are about as vulnerable as they've been since the start of the 2017-18 season. Their defense is shaky without Laporte and Bravo has looked shaky in a City uniform too. On the other side, Liverpool is squeaking by in a bunch of games. A good number of them have been where they've won xG handily and just didn't get a goal until late, but they've had some shaky performances as well including in the CL. Neither team seems to be clicking at the level of that electric match last year that turned the season.
   381. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 09:05 AM (#5899646)
Yeah I think City are the better team, but Liverpool is at home, I have zero confidence in Bravo, and I just don't think you can actually expect pretend CBs to stop Liverpool's attacking talent.

EDIT: Ha so pretty much what spivey said.
   382. The Marksist Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5899702)
The whole thing about this 'Pool/City match is that City's best defense right now is probably to just attack and counterpress. Meanwhile, Liverpool would probably be happy to be able to attack at speed, and if City press high they'll have chances that way. Honestly, I'm already anxious; not sure my heart can take actually watching it.
   383. Scott Lange Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5899781)
   384. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5899786)
Champions League to CBS. https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2019/11/CBS.aspx

Wow, that's surprising, and great as far as I'm concerned. It would be difficult to do less with the rights than Turner has done.
   385. Baldrick Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5899793)
The US women won their first game under Vlatko 3-2 vs. Sweden last night. It was great! Two dumb goals conceded once the game started to peter out in the final 20 minutes, but the first half was electric, and a pretty clear demonstration that this team has several gears beyond what they exhibited under Ellis. And they won two World Cups under Ellis!

Anything can happen and we'll have to see how it goes, but it was certainly fun to see the US play and be excited about their style of play and enthusiasm.
   386. frannyzoo Posted: November 08, 2019 at 03:04 PM (#5899798)
Guess NBCSN doesn't see "relegation six-pointer" with quite the same excitement I have. Have fun Norwich-Watford.
   387. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 08, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5899825)
So how do you get a second yellow, up 2, with 30 minutes left, on a play with no danger of a goal being scored? That's terrible. Norwich will still probably lose, but they had effectively 0 chance of drawing level without that error.
   388. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 08, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5899831)
Norwich has been so bad this year, despite that City win. Only had better xG than their opponents in one game, at home against Newcastle (probably the second worst team this year so far).
   389. Baldrick Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5899952)
I can't believe I ever thought VAR was a good idea.
   390. Richard Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5899955)
Sheffield United were robbed there. That is ludicrous.
   391. Richard Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5899957)
Well, we should be winning.
   392. spivey Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5899958)
Dier has been appallingly bad today. A back 4 and CDM of Aurier/Sanchez/Dier/Davies and Sissoko is incapable of creating any offense. Christ a lot of new defenders are needed on this team.
   393. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5899960)
There have been a number of similar VAR reversals this year on ridiculously close decisions. My guess is the defender's shoulder was further back based on he vertical position, but looked forward based on the 2-d image (which is not what VAR uses). At any rate it is not very satisfying.

The other Sheffield United goal was just as close on offside, but it looks like it may have been mooted by the fact that it was an own goal. We talked about this earlier... Dier made the play on the ball because of the offensive player (who may or may not have been offside), so it's really unfair that his touch causing an own goal moots the offside rule. I think he was onside anyway but it was super close.
   394. spivey Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5899961)
Remember when Dier was comfortably in England’s starting XI?

Also Kane being unsubbable really hurts the team
   395. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5899965)
Did they even give that as on OG? If not, I'm really not sure why they didn't take a closer look with VAR. I guess we'll find out later.
   396. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5899969)
Great game for Sheffield United, considering they were on the road against (what should be) a very good team. It was a pretty even game overall, but Sheffield could easily have won it with a tiny more VAR luck.
   397. Richard Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5899974)
A thoroughly deserved point and had VAR actually been applied properly it would have been all three.

Blades the better side, again.

Man Utd next.
   398. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5899977)
I guess they are saying Baldock got the goal (i.e., not an OG), and that the Sheffield United player in the center was not part of the play. If so, that makes no sense because the GK held his position rather than go for the ball directly, since it was close to the Sheffield United player in the center trying to make a play on the ball. (Still not sure he was actually in an offside position, but some are saying he was.)


Blades the better side, again.


Not at all sure about that. Better versus pregame expectation certainly, but Tottenham had the better of every statistic, and significantly better on xG and non-shot xG. If you were to allow the VAR-disallowed goal, the xG would have been close to even.
   399. Baldrick Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:17 PM (#5899983)
I guess they are saying Baldock got the goal (i.e., not an OG), and that the Sheffield United player in the center was not part of the play. If so, that makes no sense because the GK held his position rather than go for the ball directly, since it was close to the Sheffield United player in the center trying to make a play on the ball. (Still not sure he was actually in an offside position, but some are saying he was.)

Further evidence for my argument that the offside rule is extremely bad and we only ever could justify putting up with it when decisions were made in real-time and the inconsistencies of the rule were washed out by the inconsistencies of what the human eye can actually do. Bring in the robots and all we're left with is a nonsense rule.
   400. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:29 PM (#5899987)
Also Kane being unsubbable really hurts the team


LOL
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