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Wednesday, June 28, 2017

OT-NBA off season thread


I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none that bothered to submit a monthly thread for nearly 4 months as to avoid detracting from what this site is really about: ... white privilege

RollingWave Posted: June 28, 2017 at 07:45 AM | 2428 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off topic

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   1001. RJ in TO Posted: July 14, 2017 at 11:17 AM (#5493490)
also, health.
This is kind of an important one.
   1002. Booey Posted: July 14, 2017 at 12:06 PM (#5493549)
There is no way I would take Embiid over towns, just no. Maybe in three years when he has shown he has the health skill, but not now, no way.


This is how I feel WRT Gobert vs Embiid as well. Gobert made the All NBA 2nd team (and had a good argument for 1st), led the league in blocks, was the runner up DPOY, and finished 2nd in the entire league in WS. Embiid might do some of those things if he can stay healthy, but Rudy actually did. Hypothetical performance can't outweigh actual star caliber performance.

Also the 224 to 31 games played difference over the past 3 years is no small thing...
   1003. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 14, 2017 at 12:35 PM (#5493576)
I have some other problems with the rankings - why is Tatum ahead of Ball? How the #### is Russell #17 ahead of someone like Ball? In both cases, even if you don't like Ball, that shouldn't matter here. There's more - not sure why Beal is this high considering his contract. Is Smith ranked high just because he looked good in Summer League? etc, etc
   1004. Manny Coon Posted: July 14, 2017 at 12:51 PM (#5493597)
I'd like to throw the Clippers into the Rose sweepstakes.


The Clippers were linked to Rose and Rondo before they went with Teodosic. Rose/Rondo seems very Doc Rivers, so Teodosic seems like something influenced by West.
   1005. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 14, 2017 at 12:58 PM (#5493610)
Triple-Doubles at Las Vegas Summer League over the last decade
-- Lakers' Lonzo Ball: 2
-- All other players combined: 0
pic.twitter.com/Mi8sEWfpfz
— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) July 14, 2017

Joel Embiid on saying \"#### LaVar Ball" on Instagram: "I think most people have been wanting to say that ... I'm glad I said it."
pic.twitter.com/szJgV8fa6P
— avery yang (@avery_yang) July 13, 2017
   1006. jmurph Posted: July 14, 2017 at 01:37 PM (#5493644)
Celtics are signing 2016 2nd round pick Abdel Nader. It seems they also expect to have Zizic and Yabusele on the roster, as well as Tatum obviously. And possibly this year's 2nd rounder Semi Ojeleye? That's kind of a shocking number of 1st year players (plus Brown, in his second year) for a team expecting to play deep into the playoffs.
   1007. jmurph Posted: July 14, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5493697)
Forgot about Daniel Theis, who is older but also a first year player.
   1008. JC in DC Posted: July 14, 2017 at 02:42 PM (#5493708)
So, Kings fans and others: any insights into Scott Perry, the new Knicks GM? Should I be happy and consoled that new team president Mills has installed Perry as the GM? Is this the Knicks finally returning to a real basketball front office, with an experienced front office guy given personnel authority, or is this just a case of a Dolan-survivor bringing in someone desperate for the title and the cash, but who poses no threat or challenge to Mills-Dolan (Molan?)?
   1009. Norcan Posted: July 14, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5493711)
Where did the Ball as Love comps come from? Because of the long passes? If that's the criteria, heck put Matt Barnes in there too. He's amazing at firing long-range one-handed passes.
   1010. jmurph Posted: July 14, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5493714)
Mills-Dolan (Molan?)

Hmmm. Would you be willing to consider Dills?
   1011. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 14, 2017 at 03:41 PM (#5493766)
Did we talk about this Woj nugget: Indy offered PG to GS for Klay straight up. I completely understand all the reasons GS would say no, but man, I kinda wanna see what a Curry/PG/Durant/Green lineup with anyone else could do at it's peak powers.
   1012. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 14, 2017 at 03:43 PM (#5493768)
So, Kings fans and others: any insights into Scott Perry, the new Knicks GM? Should I be happy and consoled that new team president Mills has installed Perry as the GM? Is this the Knicks finally returning to a real basketball front office, with an experienced front office guy given personnel authority, or is this just a case of a Dolan-survivor bringing in someone desperate for the title and the cash, but who poses no threat or challenge to Mills-Dolan (Molan?)?

Sounds like a lot of people are giving Perry a lot of credit for the Kings moves the last few months or so. Were I a Knicks fan, I'd be hesitant about the bump of Mills upstairs.
   1013. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 14, 2017 at 03:46 PM (#5493769)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 5m5 minutes ago

Free agent Jonathon Simmons has agreed to a three-year deal with the Orlando Magic, agent Cervando Tejada tells ESPN.
   1014. King Mekong Posted: July 14, 2017 at 03:57 PM (#5493782)
Alas poor Jonathon, we hardly knew ye.
   1015. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 14, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5493789)
Free agent Jonathon Simmons has agreed to a three-year deal with the Orlando Magic


Hey just what the Magic need, a good athlete with a broken shot!

Can't wait to see Payton, Simmons, Aaron Gordon and Biyombo throwing up bricks!
   1016. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 14, 2017 at 04:12 PM (#5493791)
Oh, Orlando also added THE FINAL PIECE, Shelvin Mack!
   1017. King Mekong Posted: July 14, 2017 at 04:17 PM (#5493795)
Very curious to see the parameters of Pau Gasols contract...
   1018. jmurph Posted: July 14, 2017 at 04:41 PM (#5493807)
Hey just what the Magic need, a good athlete with a broken shot!

Seriously. I'm inclined to think if Orlando does it, it's a bad move, until proven otherwise (though I guess they got a reasonable return for Ibaka when they sent him to Toronto?).
   1019. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 14, 2017 at 04:52 PM (#5493813)
I was very high on Jonathan Isaac going into the draft, but when Orlando picked him I couldn't help but instantly feel like I must have been wrong.

Orlando is a good example of a team that could DESPERATELY use a DeMar DeRozan at any price. Overrated and overpaid--yeah, maybe. But every good team needs one guy that can create his own shot and make it.

I think that gets near to the heart of why high volume scorers who do little else, like DeRozan, invariably wind up overpaid: because, while returns rapidly diminish on multiple such players, being without anyone on your team who can just take the ball and get two points ten or twelve times a night is exquisitely painful. Toronto may well think: we really shouldn't pay DeMar max money, but... we let him walk, then Kyle gets hurt, and where are we? How do we score?

It's also why almost everyone regarded Markelle Fultz as the #1 prospect: he's the one guy in the draft, with the possible exception of Dennis Smith who has serious injury and ball fixation concerns, who projects as a guy who can regularly just take the ball and get two points. And those are really hard to find and highly valuable.

(The case for Lonzo Ball boils down to, he has the single most special basketball skill of anyone in the draft, which alone makes him the highest ceiling player.)
   1020. JC in DC Posted: July 14, 2017 at 05:07 PM (#5493817)
In all seriousness, I think that was the "logic" behind the Hardaway signing by NY: if we lose Melo, we need someone who can get shots up. I'm not sure if Hardaway actually fits that profile, but I believe that's what motivated the move.
   1021. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 14, 2017 at 05:23 PM (#5493823)
Right, because the Knicks appear unaware of or uninterested in the fact Kristaps Porzingis is on their team.
   1022. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 14, 2017 at 06:50 PM (#5493841)
I think I'm fine with 3/20 for Simmons, though I can't back that up with the stats I tend to favor.

Nwaba to CHI on waivers. Tarik Black to HOU.

1019/PASTE: I definitely agree that many stat type peeps underestimate the importance of shot creators / high usage guys, partly from underestimating the scarcity of that ability, partly because of the impact on the margins of other activities from having to focus energy on scoring versus other stuff.

As for Isaac specifically, I'm agnostic. I don't trust Orlando's ability to develop him. In theory, they could let Gordon play the 4 on O and Isaac that spot on D. Like him quite a bit in the abstract.
   1023. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 14, 2017 at 07:06 PM (#5493845)
Black got the BAE (3.2m)
   1024. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2017 at 08:39 PM (#5493881)
Tarik Black on the BAE is a steal.

I feel like the right bigs are being undervalued. Guys who can switch, screen and rebound aren't getting the money I think they should.
   1025. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 14, 2017 at 09:22 PM (#5493898)
I feel like the right bigs are being undervalued. Guys who can switch, screen and rebound aren't getting the money I think they should.
That's because everyone's looking for a stretch big man, and they're making compromise on defense and rebounding. They shouldn't. Black has no offense outside of 10 feet, but he's solid at pretty much everything else. Any team can use 20 minutes from a guy like that.
   1026. PJ Martinez Posted: July 14, 2017 at 09:57 PM (#5493914)
It's looking like roster spots 10-17 on the Celtics (this is assuming they sign a couple of two-way guys) may all be rookies, which I kind of love. I understand the case for having a few seasoned veterans you can count on blah blah blah... It's more fun, in my view, at least for now, to have young guys who will fight for minutes and that the team can try to nurture.
   1027. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 14, 2017 at 11:57 PM (#5493962)
Mike O'Connor‏ @MOConnor_NBA
Going thru film made me realize how similar the Sixers are to '14 Heat. LBJ (Simmons) Bosh (JoJo) Wade (Fultz) Allen (Redick) Battier (RoCo)





and video
   1028. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2017 at 11:58 PM (#5493963)
@1027

Sure, if you completely ignore defense, you can kind of squint and see it.
   1029. stevegamer Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:10 AM (#5493965)
@ 1027

I have no idea who Mike O'Connor is, but I'm sure that if I see that name again I won't be trusting it much.

Battier - Covington pretty comparable, but....

Allen > Redick by a decent margin.
Bosh > Embiid by a decent margin right now, but would close significantly if Embiid can stay healthy.

James > Simmons by a ridiculously ginormous margin at the moment.
Wade > Fultz by a ridiculously ginormous margin at the moment.

If Simmons/Fultz turn out to be half as valuable as James/Wade that will be a great result for us 76er fans.





   1030. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:22 AM (#5493967)
Battier - Covington pretty comparable, but....
covington is a much better defender compared to 2014 battier.
Allen > Redick by a decent margin.
allen was 38 so this one's a push, or maybe a slight advantage for allen.
Bosh > Embiid by a decent margin right now, but would close significantly if Embiid can stay healthy.
not a chance. bosh was decent enough, but a healthy embiid is a DPOY candidate. bosh couldn't anchor a defense; embiid can.
James > Simmons by a ridiculously ginormous margin at the moment.
i think you undersell simmons, but fair enough.
Wade > Fultz by a ridiculously ginormous margin at the moment.
2014 wade was not a great defender, but i don't trust fultz, either, so yeah, advantage heat.
Sure, if you completely ignore defense, you can kind of squint and see it.
the 2014 heat were only 11th in Drating, so let's not put them on a pedestal.

   1031. stevegamer Posted: July 15, 2017 at 02:35 AM (#5493979)
STIGGLES, I'm not comparing the players as they were on the 2014 Heat. I'm comparing the players, period.

If we want to compare the 2014 Heat to the 2017 76ers, it's gets much worse.

Allen vs Redick, I agree for the single year is reasonably close.

Battier vs Covington, Battier was the better offensive player, and for defense, it depends on what you like. DRTG likes Battier Slightly over Covington's last year. If you liks DBPM, Covington is far ahead of Battier, but that's literally Covington's only year above 0. Battier has no years below zero, and only one at zero, the same as Covington. I think you're underselling Battier.

James vs Simmons is literally a serious GOAT candidate versus a guy with 0 NBA games. The odds Simmons plays as well as LBJ in his prime is one of those things you should bet almost all the money you have against.

Wade vs Fultz is a top-50 all-time guy or so versus a guy with 0 NBA games. The odds Fultz plays as well as Wade did is one of those things you should bet all the money you can spare against.

Bosh vs Embiid is a very good player (outside the top 100, probably) who was durable and productive until he got ill after 30 and was forced to retire, versus a guy with 31 career games who has health issues. If you triple Embiid's VORP from last year, you get close to Bosh's best years, but Embiid won't play 93 games this year. As I said, if Embiid can stay healthy it's close. They are admittedly different types of players.


   1032. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:27 AM (#5494005)
If we want to compare the 2014 Heat to the 2017 76ers, it's gets much worse.
just to clear something up; i'm pretty sure that comparison was based on playing style and offensive skillset, rather than a quantitative analysis of their (projected) career performance.

lebron and simmons are huge and athletic with exceptional playmaking ability.
wade and fultz are ball dominant scoring guards
bosh and embiid are athletic stretch 5s
allen and redick are dead eyed snipers
battier and covington hide in the corner and try not to break anything.


you shouldn't have to squint too hard to see where this particular comp is coming from.
   1033. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:34 AM (#5494006)
This is what I keep telling people.

Magic Johnson and I were both pass-first point guards with a bad outside shot. That's what I mean when I compare myself to him.

About as accurate as comparing Ben Simmons to LeBron.
   1034. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:35 AM (#5494008)
I don't see it. Especially since we have nothing but educated guesses as to what sort of players Fultz and Simmons will be at this level.
   1035. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:38 AM (#5494009)
LOL!
   1036. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:06 PM (#5494013)
Matthew Dellavedova and I are both unathletic white guys who can't really do anything except hit the occasional jump shot and subscribe to the "no blood, no foul" defensive philosohpy.
   1037. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:08 PM (#5494014)
Magic Johnson and I were both pass-first point guards with a bad outside shot. That's what I mean when I compare myself to him.
This won't work if you're a white guy. White guys only get comped to other white guys.
   1038. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5494020)
Rondo to the Pellies on a one year deal.


(Rondo and I are both poor foul shooters who are pretty good at Connect Four? Needs work.)
   1039. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5494024)
This won't work if you're a white guy. White guys only get comped to other white guys.


I can't think of a white PG with a bad outside shot :(

At least not an allstar caliber one.

Edit: I assume this is why I am not an NBA player today.
   1040. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 15, 2017 at 01:24 PM (#5494034)
I don't see it. Especially since we have nothing but educated guesses as to what sort of players Fultz and Simmons will be at this level.
what's a reasonable projection for fultz? i'm not his biggest fan, but it seems like people think his most likely outcome is one of the worst #1 overall picks in the last 30 years. he'll be better than kwame/olowokandi/bargnani/bennett, but after that, is it reasonable to expect that he'll have a better career than joe smith and kenyon martin? glenn robinson, derrick coleman and danny manning? is it reasonably likely that he winds up in the larry johnson/patrick ewing/elton brand tier?

i know there are positional differences, but just in terms of career shape and overall impact, a reasonable expectation for fultz should be that he's a multi-time all-star. there's a 50% chance he falls short of that, but that's kind of the point. the 50th percentile for him is 18+ PPG and 5+ APG with decent efficiency.


   1041. Manny Coon Posted: July 15, 2017 at 01:41 PM (#5494036)
This won't work if you're a white guy. White guys only get comped to other white guys.


I can't think of a white PG with a bad outside shot :(

At least not an allstar caliber one.


And this is why when Ricky Rubio was coming into the league after recently winning a defensive player of the year award he was getting compared to Steve Nash and Pete Maravich rather than Jason Kidd and Rajon Rondo.
   1042. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5494041)
And this is why when Ricky Rubio was coming into the league after recently winning a defensive player of the year award he was getting compared to Steve Nash and Pete Maravich rather than Jason Kidd and Rajon Rondo.


You can only half compare Rubio to Jason Kidd.
   1043. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 15, 2017 at 04:41 PM (#5494069)
is it reasonably likely that he winds up in the larry johnson/patrick ewing/elton brand tier

Maybe it's my Knicks glasses, but this seems like a bizarre tier. One of the greatest players of all time, a perennial All-Star/good enough to be second best guy on a title team, and a guy who had a couple good seasons and then became a high quality role player.
   1044. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: July 15, 2017 at 05:06 PM (#5494072)
what's a reasonable projection for fultz? i'm not his biggest fan, but it seems like people think his most likely outcome is one of the worst #1 overall picks in the last 30 years. he'll be better than kwame/olowokandi/bargnani/bennett, but after that, is it reasonable to expect that he'll have a better career than joe smith and kenyon martin? glenn robinson, derrick coleman and danny manning? is it reasonably likely that he winds up in the larry johnson/patrick ewing/elton brand tier?


You're missing the point. Setting aside "value", you don't know the TYPE of player they will be. Basketball players aren't fully formed at age 18 and sometimes guys add or lose skills over time, or with the change in level. I'm pretty sure Fultz will never be a big, but beyond that, <shrug>.

Also, you say Fultz "will" be better than the #1 busts, but that's an improper use of the future positive tense. He may be. He may be the fifth name on that list. We don't know.
   1045. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 15, 2017 at 05:59 PM (#5494081)
Caveats: I'm in France, 9 time zones away from normal, I've had a fair bit of wine. I cannot guarantee I'll stand by this all when I'm sober again. But am I the only non-Philly fan who remembers what Ben Simmons' highlight reel looked like? He is not fully formed, and I intend to make no claims about his overall impact on winning, but here is a comprehensive list of players I can think of off the top of my head who were capable of seeing the passes he threw on a regular basis and were 6'8" or taller (he's 6'10" and really athletic):

Magic
Bird
James
Sabonis
Walton
Jokic

That's it. That's the whole list. (I'm sure I've forgotten someone; please fill in any gaps, because big man passing is the greatest thing in basketball and I'm always up for a new youtube rabbit hole.)

Obviously, this season's 76ers won't be anywhere near legit contention, and . But the stylistic comparison to those Heat teams is valid, and(, finally,) the talent is nothing to scoff at. I won't believe they're contenders, or even playoff contenders, until I see some on-court results, but honestly, I think this set of predictions is the sanest STIGGLES has sounded in years.
   1046. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5494084)
Maybe it's my Knicks glasses, but this seems like a bizarre tier. One of the greatest players of all time, a perennial All-Star/good enough to be second best guy on a title team, and a guy who had a couple good seasons and then became a high quality role player.


I think Patrick Ewing is closer to Elton Brand than he is to "one of the greatest players of all time."

Paul Pierce is further ahead in win shares (imperfect as it may be) than Patrick Ewing than Ewing is from Elton Brand.

Is Paul Pierce one of the greatest players of all time? I guess he is the all time leader in on court Shits/36 in the finals.
   1047. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 15, 2017 at 06:30 PM (#5494086)
[1046] I mean that he's a Top 50 player. I think Patrick Ewing is/was good enough to be the best player on a championship team. I don't think Brand or Pierce were.
   1048. covelli chris p Posted: July 15, 2017 at 07:18 PM (#5494098)
Caveats: I'm in France, 9 time zones away from normal
did you have a chance to catch any of the tour?
   1049. maccoach57 Posted: July 15, 2017 at 07:30 PM (#5494101)
76ers:

STIGGLES said that they have sold a huge number of season tickets, and I believe it. Philly is one of the most interesting situations in the NBA. They have two #1 overall picks, and a third guy who probably would have been absent epic injury concerns. And, Simmons and Embiid's inability to get on the floor actually adds to the anticipation, because it is basically like Simmons, Embiid, and Fultz are all arriving at the same time. Signing Redick to the one-year balloon deal was a clever move in and of itself, and also an important signal, in that it says that the tanking stuff is over. Add that to the fact that the East is incredibly weak competitively, it is easy to see why the fans would be stoked. The 76ers certainly can win 33-37 games or so, maybe 40, and that could be a 7 seed in the East.

That all said, invoking one of The Heatles teams, even a relatively weak one, as a comp, is just giddy July fanboyism, and believe me, I know what that sounds like, given that the Lakers fanbase is losing its shitt over Lonzo Ball. (The meme, of course, is Zo-Time). I have goofy texts coming in from a buddy who is in Vegas for SL, the Lakers intertubes are orgasming, and LaVar Ball has spoken it all into existence.

But in the real world, Embiid has not come close to proving that he can physically play the NBA schedule, Fultz is just a very good prospect, nothing more, and will have a learning curve; and Simmons, for all his unusual talents, has not shown any ability to shoot from distance and has never played a minute in the NBA. Redick is 33, far from being a great player, and dropped off notably in some key metrics last year.

So, "young, interesting and exciting" does not equal "team you should compare to a championship-level team."
   1050. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 15, 2017 at 07:31 PM (#5494102)
Also, you say Fultz "will" be better than the #1 busts, but that's an improper use of the future positive tense. He may be. He may be the fifth name on that list. We don't know.
sure it's possible fultz winds up being the 5th name in that group, but it's not really worth considering. okafor, noel, MCW and stauskas are all top 11 picks who've been more or less processed out of the team's future plans. if fultz isn't good enough, the same thing will happen to him.

also, all 4 of kwame/olowokandi/bargnani/bennett were known to be questionable/terrible picks at the time. the floor for fultz is much more likely to be of the joe smith/kenyon martin variety.

[1046] I mean that he's a Top 50 player. I think Patrick Ewing is/was good enough to be the best player on a championship team. I don't think Brand or Pierce were.
i don't think history will be very kind to ewing. he was a good defender (but not as good as contemporaries mutombo/robinson/olajuwon/mourning/shaq) who carried a high usage, but the efficiency wasn't there. his peak was basically what embiid did this year, except without the 3P shooting.

Obviously, this season's 76ers won't be anywhere near legit contention, and . But the stylistic comparison to those Heat teams is valid, and(, finally,) the talent is nothing to scoff at. I won't believe they're contenders, or even playoff contenders, until I see some on-court results, but honestly, I think this set of predictions is the sanest STIGGLES has sounded in years.
if the sixers aren't playoff contenders in this joke of a conference, who the hell is?

(The meme, of course, is Zo-Time)
needs improvement.

"It's 'Zo-time" is much better.
The 76ers certainly can win 33-37 games or so, maybe 40, and that could be a 7 seed in the East.
we won 28 games this year, without fultz, simmons, redick, amir johnson, jerryd bayless, and with only 31 games of embiid.

i'm optimistic about our potential to win more than 33 games.
   1051. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: July 15, 2017 at 08:34 PM (#5494137)
his peak was basically what embiid did this year, except without the 3P shooting


lord have ####### mercy Patrick Ewing averaged more than 81 games a season and more than 36 minutes a game during his 5 year peak he's not a hypothetical basketball player and the knicks weren't a hypothetically good team, which is a critical and dispositive difference between what Patrick Ewing was, which was great, and what joel embiid and the sixers are, which is great on twitter
   1052. TFTIO, for one, is sick and tired of winning Posted: July 15, 2017 at 08:46 PM (#5494145)
Forget it, . . . . . . . . . . -- it's STIGGLEStown.
   1053. Thok Posted: July 15, 2017 at 09:43 PM (#5494203)
I'm sort of disappointed that there hasn't been any discussion here about the decision to get rid of 4 timeouts a game. It raises all sorts of questions:

1. How much does this rule favor the Warriors?
2. How many fewer games will Joel Emblid play because of this change?
3. What will we complain about during the last minute of play?
   1054. maccoach57 Posted: July 15, 2017 at 10:32 PM (#5494240)
we won 28 games this year,without fultz, simmons, redick, amir johnson, jerryd bayless, and with only 31 games of embiid.


Bayless is not a guy who really impacts a team's record. Redick and Johnson will probably have slight positive impacts, especially Redick, in that Redick will provide needed spacing/shooting and Johnson can be there to help when Embiid is hurt/resting and he is better than Okafor. But Redick as noted is 33 and Johnson just hit 30. So it comes back to the same things: the 76ers making a big jump forward depends on Embiid actually playing 65 games, and Simmons and Fultz being unusually good for rookies. There is nothing wrong with the vet signings since they are short deals, but pointing at them as likely reasons for significant improvement is sort of like Lakers fans doing that with the short deals for Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Redick and Johnson are guys who help you at the margins...if you have a strong core.

   1055. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 16, 2017 at 12:29 PM (#5494308)
I think Philly will top .500
   1056. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 16, 2017 at 12:41 PM (#5494311)
did you have a chance to catch any of the tour?


Disappointingly little. All the most exciting stages happened on days when I was either on a train or staying with my sister-in-law (I'm a new oncle, which is a major reason for the trip), whose hipster winemaker lifestyle, while mighty idyllic, does not include a TV. Still, since I am a cycling fan, it's fantastic to have races being run throughout the afternoon rather than the godawful wee hours of the morning.
   1057. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:39 PM (#5494322)
Ok. I plugged the sixers Carmelo numbers into a spreadsheet, handed out playing time, and tried to see what was what.
I got a team just south of 50/50, with a bit above average defense and a bit more below average offense. On the one hand, I think this is bearish - I suspect that Simmons has made real improvements with his outside shot and that Brown can make the perimeter d better than it looks on paper. Also, Philly finally has a lot of NBA bodies to go around - to the extent that they can figure out which ones (beyond the core) are better than others and play them, they'll be in good shape.
But --
Bayless sucks, they need more perimeter shooting and a guard/wing defender beyond Covington, they need for either Anderson or TLC to become an average player, and Redick needs some fountain of youth juice.
I do think that people sleep on how deep their front line is. Beyond Embiid, Simmons (I call him a 4), and Saric - they have the sneaky solid Holmes and the perennially underestimated Johnson (who always posts good on/off numbers and is a plus passer and defender who can shoot a bit and is efficient around the basket. Great screener.) I presume that Okafor gets dumped for, like, a conditional second or something; he's trash.

Obviously, knowing how many minutes Joel/Simmons can play is a crapshoot as is how Fultz will do (not great was the assumption here.)
   1058. PJ Martinez Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5494324)
I think the Sixers are a .500 team if Embiid plays 60+ games. If he doesn't, they probably aren't.
   1059. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:45 PM (#5494326)
I assumed 60 games, 28 min per, got 39 wins
   1060. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 16, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5494338)
I agree with the the last few posts. If Embiid gives them 1500+ minutes, I think they're about .500. If he gives them significantly less than that, they're probably still pretty weak.

I think they could be dangerous in the playoffs against a team like Toronto or Boston if they're healthy, just factoring in likely young player growth. Again, if Embiid's healthy.
   1061. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 16, 2017 at 04:00 PM (#5494389)
If Embiid plays 60 games the Sixers might win 50. But I think the probability of that is near zero.

I think the median outcome is Embiid plays about the same ~30 games he played last year and the Sixers win about 35-40 games.

Part of me thinks even that is over-optimistic though, because Fultz and Simmons are rookies and therefore will probably not be very good, and they still have no bench and thus no way of dealing even in the faintest way with injuries to any of their non-Embiid starters.

I think that even if Embiid is out of basketball by then, the 2019-2020 Sixers are likely to be a very good team, though. I'm very high on Ben Simmons.
   1062. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 16, 2017 at 04:38 PM (#5494412)
I presume that Okafor gets dumped for, like, a conditional second or something; he's trash.
foh/

we talk about embiid's injuries, but okafor's played through persistent, nagging knee issues since he's been in the NBA. there are a lot of things he needs to improve on, but getting him healthy and in shape might be half the battle. i'm not even close to giving up on him.
If Embiid plays 60 games the Sixers might win 50. But I think the probability of that is near zero.

I think the median outcome is Embiid plays about the same ~30 games he played last year and the Sixers win about 35-40 games.

most conversation about embiid assumes the worst, but if he has a good season, there's a decent chance he's the 2nd best player in the east next year.
Fultz and Simmons are rookies and therefore will probably not be very good
i'm not very high on fultz, but i think simmons could have a monster season. there are many PFs who can't shoot; there are few who can do this.
   1063. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 16, 2017 at 05:52 PM (#5494438)
But why would you give Okafor minutes to prove he's improved - you've a glut of solid big men as is?

Prince LMaM to HOU.

Sergio Rodriguez went to CSKA, as it turns out.
   1064. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: July 16, 2017 at 06:39 PM (#5494443)
i'm not very high on fultz, but i think simmons could have a monster season. there are many PFs who can't shoot; there are few who can do this.


Summer League transition defense is pretty much the best.
   1065. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 16, 2017 at 07:10 PM (#5494450)
But why would you give Okafor minutes to prove he's improved - you've a glut of solid big men as is?

i wouldn't trade him for pennies so as to hedge against any future embiid injuries.
i would give him minutes because i think he can be an unstoppable juggernaut.

i see the same deficiencies in okafor's game that you people see, i just think (hope) that experience and better health can mitigate the worst of them.

Summer League transition defense is pretty much the best.
who pissed in your cheerios this morning?

sure, summer league is basically tee ball, but simmons spun around one defender, dribbled through three more and threaded a no-look pass into a diving richaun holmes. he's 6'11. it's impressive.
   1066. kubiwan Posted: July 16, 2017 at 07:14 PM (#5494451)
Okafor's played through persistent, nagging knee issues since he's been in the NBA


Leave it to stiggles to spin chronic injuries as a plus. I mean, are the guy's knees going to get better doing the plethora of running and jumping he needs to do to get in shape and get better at basketball??!!??
   1067. covelli chris p Posted: July 16, 2017 at 07:18 PM (#5494452)
Still, since I am a cycling fan, it's fantastic to have races being run throughout the afternoon rather than the godawful wee hours of the morning.
indeed. it's tough to follow from the west coast. i've caught a few of the sprint finishes before leaving for work, and managed to watch most of friday's stage thanks to the jackhammers that woke me up ...
   1068. sardonic Posted: July 16, 2017 at 07:51 PM (#5494460)
Houston is officially concerning me a bit. Getting Chris Paul is one thing, but PJ Tucker, Tarik Black and LMAM are all good pieces to match up against the Warriors.

G: Chris Paul
G: James Harden
F: Trevor Ariza
F: Ryan Anderson
C: Clint Capela

G: Eric Gordon
F: PJ Tucker
F: LMAM
C: Tarik Black
C: Nene

Looks like a pretty good 10-man rotation. They can play straight up, go with a smaller but athletic/mobile lineup of Paul/Gordon/Harden/Ariza/Black, play defensive with Paul/Ariza/Tucker/LMAM/Capela and let Paul try to manufacture points, play big with two of Capela/Nene/Black on the floor. It'll be interesting to see what MDA does with the rotations.
   1069. PJ Martinez Posted: July 16, 2017 at 08:54 PM (#5494470)
Lonzo getting the best of the big point guard match-up. He and Dennis Smith both have 14 at the half, but Lonzo also has 10 assists. It's helped that his teammates can't miss: Lakers shooting like eighty percent from the field.
   1070. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 16, 2017 at 09:25 PM (#5494477)
I wouldn't go so far as to say rotations don't matter, but I would basically say that if your 7-11 guys are good, your rotations are gonna be good. I think that's true with Houston. They also were really smart. They lost Beverly, which is obviously an acceptable loss to get Paul. But in general they've added a lot of toughness to their team.

They were soft last year, especially at the guard/wing position.
   1071. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 16, 2017 at 09:27 PM (#5494479)
Dennis Smith looks pretty ####### good. I guess nobody really doubted his talent.
   1072. tshipman Posted: July 16, 2017 at 11:04 PM (#5494504)
Houston is in a weird position where they're in this transition space between spoiler and favorite.

You look at their roster, and you see guys like Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, LMAM, and you think, yeah, those guys have skills and can help you win games in the regular season. Maybe Houston wins 60 games. That would be awesome.

However, you look at a WCF or finals matchup, and you look at Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, LMAM, and you see a bunch of one way players that wouldn't have been able to be on the court in the Finals last year.

So their roster is simultaneously full of guys who can help you win games in the regular season, and also slightly overpaid liabilities who are unlikely to see heavy minutes in the last series that counts for the Rockets. They can win, because 3p shooting is inherently more random than 2p shooting, but I'm not sure that they're better than the Spurs.
   1073. maccoach57 Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:55 AM (#5494517)
Pelton was asked to compare Ball and Simmons as passers--who is better. Interestingly, Pelton really likes Ball but also types the terrifying words for Lakers fans: KENDALL MARSHALL

I'd say Ball, and I don't think it's particularly close. Simmons is an exceptional passer for someone 6 foot 10, which is a key part of his appeal, but relative to point guards, I don't think he's anything special as a passer. (Of course, because of his size, many of his other skills are unique for a point guard.)

Ball's court vision and ability to deliver passes on time and on target are remarkable even among point guards. His projected assist rate based on his translated college performance is second among freshmen in my database (which is complete through the past decade) behind Kendall Marshall. So I'd definitely take Ball as a passer over Simmons.


   1074. sardonic Posted: July 17, 2017 at 08:44 AM (#5494527)
However, you look at a WCF or finals matchup, and you look at Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, LMAM, and you see a bunch of one way players that wouldn't have been able to be on the court in the Finals last year.


I don't think I agree with this. One way players like Ian Clark and Javale McGee played real minutes for the Warriors in the Finals. Pat McCaw. Sure, maybe they're not playing in the last minute of Game 7, but I think each of the Rockets's 6 through 10 brings enough to contribute on the floor in a matchup against the Warriors depending on how they want to play it.

I think there's enough range of skills to give MDA a lot of options to match up, similar to how the Warriors sometimes play small ball death squad and other times do a lot of lobs for McGee, or have more of a full Spurs-y second unit with David West initiating from the high post.

If anything this will be a referendum on MDA as a coach. He's never had such a well rounded squad 1 through 10. What will he do with it?
   1075. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 17, 2017 at 10:47 AM (#5494547)
Ball IS a rich man's Kendall Marshall, though, right? Same strength; same weaknesses. It's just that the weaknesses don't seem like they're gonna be unplayably weak.

(I never figured out what was wrong with Marshall as a pro, but didn't watch him much. I presume he couldn't guard anybody....)
   1076. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 17, 2017 at 11:13 AM (#5494555)
I'd say Ball, and I don't think it's particularly close. Simmons is an exceptional passer for someone 6 foot 10, which is a key part of his appeal, but relative to point guards, I don't think he's anything special as a passer. (Of course, because of his size, many of his other skills are unique for a point guard.)
that sells simmons short. his anticipation is legitimately great and not just a function of his size, athleticism and ball handling. if anything, people underestimate his passing talent because of his other, more obvious, strengths.

i do agree that ball is on a higher level, but both of them are special.
Ball IS a rich man's Kendall Marshall, though, right? Same strength; same weaknesses. It's just that the weaknesses don't seem like they're gonna be unplayably weak.

(I never figured out what was wrong with Marshall as a pro, but didn't watch him much. I presume he couldn't guard anybody....)
i'd say monte morris is a better comp to marshall. every decision they make is good, safe and smart, but ball sees things and makes plays that those guys can't imagine.


i think marshall's issue was that he moves very slow and NBA players move very fast. some guys make that work for them (jameer nelson, andre miller, teejer mcconnell), but he wasn't one of them.
   1077. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:04 PM (#5494593)
I never figured out what was wrong with Marshall as a pro, but didn't watch him much. I presume he couldn't guard anybody....


Even in college, Marshall had trouble dropping the ball through the net. He average 8 PPG in two college seasons and shot .399 for his NBA career. His NBA defensive ratings were poor, too.
   1078. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:12 PM (#5494596)
Marshall also got hurt, beyond weak d and poor shooting.

Morris strikes me as much more risk averse than Marshall.

STIGGLES, prepare your offer...
   1079. PJ Martinez Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:39 PM (#5494621)
"There are 10 players that I think have a chance of being the best player in the draft when we look back many years from now." -- Kevin O'Connor's Summer League wrap-up
   1080. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: July 17, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5494665)
It kills me that the Knicks passed on DSJ. Just kills me.
   1081. GordonShumway Posted: July 17, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5494705)
Caveats: I'm in France, 9 time zones away from normal, I've had a fair bit of wine. I cannot guarantee I'll stand by this all when I'm sober again. But am I the only non-Philly fan who remembers what Ben Simmons' highlight reel looked like? He is not fully formed, and I intend to make no claims about his overall impact on winning, but here is a comprehensive list of players I can think of off the top of my head who were capable of seeing the passes he threw on a regular basis and were 6'8" or taller (he's 6'10" and really athletic):

Magic
Bird
James
Sabonis
Walton
Jokic

That's it. That's the whole list. (I'm sure I've forgotten someone; please fill in any gaps, because big man passing is the greatest thing in basketball and I'm always up for a new youtube rabbit hole.)


Off the top of my head:

Pippen
McGrady
Grant Hill
Lamar Odom
KG

were all 6'8"+ and were very capable passers in their primes.
   1082. aberg Posted: July 17, 2017 at 02:39 PM (#5494748)

Off the top of my head:

Pippen
McGrady
Grant Hill
Lamar Odom
KG

were all 6'8"+ and were very capable passers in their primes.


I think there's also a bit of selection bias because guys have to be good at other stuff to stick around. Kendall Marshall doesn't meet the height requirement, but there have certainly been guys like him who are outstanding passers, but weak enough elsewhere to stay on the court. I don't think that Simmons will suffer that fate, but I also don't think that it's fair to lump him in with the first group based one one perceived skill.

Overall, there have been 109 recorded seasons of 5+ APG by players who are 6'8+. Here are those not mentioned:

Greats:
Wilt
Durant
Kareem
Russell

Very good playmaking bigs:
Giannis
Noah
Schrempf
Griffin
Diaw
Toine
Webber
Alvan Adams
Connie Hawkins (happy birthday!)
Vlade (surprised he wasn't mentioned earlier)
Sidney Wicks
Jeff Ruland

Tall guys who weren't really bigs:
Masbhurn
Batum
Jalen Rose
Hayward
Kukoc
Stephen Jackson

Who?
Bob Kauffman
Sam Lacey
Tom Boerwinkle
   1083. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5494819)
Rockets are for sale.
   1084. GregD Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:02 PM (#5494854)
Tall guys who weren't really bigs:
Masbhurn
Very true and always confusing since he had those powerhouse muscles. His son is a 6-0 guard who is apparently off to a good start this summer in the 15-and-under
   1085. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:04 PM (#5494856)
Obviously I don't know all the things going on in the owner's life, but the timing of this seems very strange, no? The team is as good and exciting as it's been since the Dream departed. There must be some story, no?
   1086. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:10 PM (#5494861)
Per Deadspin, the Rockets aren't the only thing he's selling now (I've now clicked the links, and it's just two mansions, but still $16mil and $22mil).

WojaESPN said not only were journalists surprised, so was a lot of the team employees. The CEO (not the owner) made the announcement at a press conference.
   1087. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:19 PM (#5494866)
"You can keep my things, they've come to take me home?"
   1088. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:37 PM (#5494878)
few thoughts:
1, buy low/sell high
2, does anyone really want to watch AI try to play basketball in 2017?
3, dario saric will be a name on that list before he's 25.
4, if i get a life size replica of joel embiid, it won't be made of balloons
5, NYK has had success with foreign picks recently, so i think it's reasonable to give them a bit of latitude for passing on smith. personally, i was probably too low on him pre-draft, but i was pretty sour on ntilikina, monk and markanen, too.
6, i don't love this prediction in retrospect:
i'd say it's 60/40 that fultz/ball go 1-2 to BOS/LAL. that 40% includes possibilities that the draft goes ball/fultz, or that one of the top 2 picks are traded, or that someone else gets taken in the top 2.

so, "something" happening is definitely a legit possibility.
   1089. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:47 PM (#5494884)
Scout No. 7: "Smith has looked great in summer league, but he's a Hall of Fame pickup player. Summer league is pickup."

link

Nate Jones‏ @JonesOnTheNBA
The thing I like about Lonzo is he isn't one of those pound the rock so that I can get assists types. He's making quick decisions
   1090. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: July 17, 2017 at 06:02 PM (#5494893)
Scout No. 7: "Smith has looked great in summer league, but he's a Hall of Fame pickup player. Summer league is pickup."

link


Well if that excerpt was more misleading, it would be a STIGGLES post.
(checks post author)
NM, spoke too soon.
   1091. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 17, 2017 at 06:33 PM (#5494916)
The lists in 1081 and 1082 are good, and there are several guys in 1081 I'm not familiar with. I'll have fun digging up some footage in the next few days when I'm back in the states. But, while withholding judgement on the players I don't know, I think that most of those additions really don't belong in the conversation. There's a real distinction between competent and truly gifted—though I grant that, being so qualitative, it's hard to discuss precisely and extraordinarily prone to bias. I mean, KG is one of my all-time favorite players and he surely moved the rock, but he belongs nowhere near this conversation.

---

Paul Pierce signed a nominal contract today to retire a Celtic. I'm really happy the parties involved managed to make that happen: as a basketball lover who grew up in Vermont, he meant a lot.
   1092. aberg Posted: July 17, 2017 at 07:40 PM (#5494950)
I think that most of those additions really don't belong in the conversation. There's a real distinction between competent and truly gifted—though I grant that, being so qualitative, it's hard to discuss precisely and extraordinarily prone to bias. I mean, KG is one of my all-time favorite players and he surely moved the rock, but he belongs nowhere near this conversation.


That's fair. I think we can narrow it down qualitatively, too. Make the list something like "PF-sized guys who have PG passing/playmaking ability" and the list is probably something like:

Magic
Bird
James
Pippen
Hill
Odom
Schrempf
Diaw
Toine
Webber
Jalen
Kukoc

That's still a really good list, but the median guy is someone like Odom or Schrempf rather than Bill Walton. Simmons has a better pedigree and probably better athleticism, so if he winds up a more dominant version of LO, that's still a repeat all-star and a good top pick. It's just really hard for me to see someone coming into the league and saying, "yup, that guy is going to be top 10 all-time." Even with Lebron, he had to work so hard and add so many things to his game before he got there.
   1093. TFTIO, for one, is sick and tired of winning Posted: July 17, 2017 at 07:46 PM (#5494953)
Derrick McKey could run an offence. So could Paul Pressey, but he was much shorter than I remember so belay that.
   1094. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2017 at 08:57 PM (#5494987)
Anthony Mason.
   1095. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 17, 2017 at 09:30 PM (#5495006)
Well if that excerpt was more misleading, it would be a STIGGLES post.
(checks post author)
NM, spoke too soon.
i don't know who you are, but i do remember that one of us was right about ainge listening to that weird brain guy before the draft, and the other one of us is you.

clicking STIGGLES links is like a box of chocolates
That's still a really good list, but the median guy is someone like Odom or Schrempf rather than Bill Walton. Simmons has a better pedigree and probably better athleticism, so if he winds up a more dominant version of LO, that's still a repeat all-star and a good top pick. It's just really hard for me to see someone coming into the league and saying, "yup, that guy is going to be top 10 all-time." Even with Lebron, he had to work so hard and add so many things to his game before he got there.
lamar odom was my favorite player for a while, but if simmons is lamar odom, that would be a disappointing outcome. i expect simmons will be more efficient, with higher usage and more assists. considering how good odom was, if simmons is a more dominant version, that puts him in scary good territory. maybe not top 10 all-time, but considering how important narrative and playoff success is when you get to that level of player rankings, maybe it would get him there.
   1096. PJ Martinez Posted: July 17, 2017 at 09:38 PM (#5495012)
maybe not top 10 all-time, but considering how important narrative and playoff success is when you get to that level of player rankings, maybe it would get him there.

This is at least 90% full STIGGLES. Maybe higher.
   1097. 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em Posted: July 17, 2017 at 09:50 PM (#5495015)
This is at least 90% full STIGGLES. Maybe higher.
nah, still not even close.

   1098. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 17, 2017 at 10:09 PM (#5495020)
I expect Simmons to have better offense than Odom. Like a better passing, maybe not quite as scoring Blake Griffin. But, Odom was a great defender. I don't know that Simmons projects to that. Does he?
   1099. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2017 at 10:28 PM (#5495025)
How many all-time top 10 guys do you project to be supplanted by current guys on the Sixers' roster, STIGGLES?
   1100. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 17, 2017 at 11:06 PM (#5495038)
Why would you stop at 10? WHY DO YOU HATE THE PROCESS?@!
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