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Saturday, February 17, 2018

OT - 2017-18 NBA thread (All-Star Weekend to End of Time edition)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  eliminationist rhetoric and precognition.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: February 17, 2018 at 02:09 AM | 6537 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   4701. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5677761)
Flip
   4702. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5677763)
Klay only needs one knee to make wide open jumpers.

I think once the Warriors get a chance to get their rotations straight in the second half they'll pull away.
   4703. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:00 PM (#5677765)
Looney cannot be taking his 4th foul reaching for a lost cause OREB.
   4704. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:02 PM (#5677767)
A little surprised that Curry is not back out there to close the second quarter, only 16 minutes in the first half.
   4705. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:04 PM (#5677768)
First close game of this round?
   4706. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:18 PM (#5677787)
Should I mention this is a big half of basketball? Or is that obvious?
   4707. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:28 PM (#5677792)
Thompson is out there gutting it out but he does not look right.
   4708. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:28 PM (#5677793)
Klay isn’t looking confident or healthy.
   4709. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:37 PM (#5677802)
Curry!
   4710. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:48 PM (#5677815)
That Gerald Green fadeaway three in the corner may have summed up that quarter for the rockets.
   4711. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:50 PM (#5677817)
Such a luxury to have those kinds of scorers all on the same team. I hate them.
   4712. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5677824)
Give Gerald Green the lock to the city.
   4713. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:56 PM (#5677830)
Re:4711

I was just thinking midway through the quarter, “ok with Klay hurt this team is vulnerable when Durant slumps.”

But 4th quarter.
   4714. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:58 PM (#5677833)
Houston hanging tough.
   4715. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:02 PM (#5677837)
This games legit
   4716. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:07 PM (#5677840)
Chris Paul is ballin yo
   4717. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:24 PM (#5677847)
Wasn’t pretty but props to Houston
   4718. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:25 PM (#5677849)
Super impressive win for Houston.
   4719. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:26 PM (#5677850)
Putting time back here is total bullshit
   4720. aberg Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:26 PM (#5677851)
What an ugly, sloppy finish. Just really bad shot choices in the last few minutes. Still entertaining to see them gutting it out, but this one won't be an ESPN classic staple.
   4721. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5677852)
I’m not exaggerating when I say these refs should never work again
   4722. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5677853)
This was the type of game I could see Houston having just enough juice to pull it out. Huge advantage at the line, Curry in foul trouble, Thompson tweaking his ankle, Iguodala out for the game, still only won by 2. I still think the Warriors are the better team and will likely win the series.
   4723. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5677854)
Agree, berg. Not pretty basketball.
   4724. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5677856)
To be fair to Houston I think this kind of gritty game was one we (I) didn’t think they could win against an all time team.

Harden didn’t do much in the 4th. I guess that was ok
With his first half performance
   4725. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5677857)
This was the type of game I could see Houston having just enough juice to pull it out. Huge advantage at the line, Curry in foul trouble, Thompson tweaking his ankle, Iguodala out for the game, still only won by 2. I still think the Warriors are the better team and will likely win the series.


I mean, the officiating was a joke, but I don't think that the Warriors are favored to win. It's 2/3 in Houston.
   4726. stevegamer Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5677859)
What an ugly, sloppy finish. Just really bad shot choices in the last few minutes. Still entertaining to see them gutting it out, but this one won't be an ESPN classic staple.


And possibly the best game of the round so far. Glad to see it tied up. Would like the finals, whomever it is, to be on close to even rest.
   4727. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:36 PM (#5677860)
In what ways were the officials a joke? I thought they were typical.

If you're Houston, you like your chances given Harden's bad second half. I still like GSW as well. But man, they have this bad habit of losing focus. They lost guys on defense and their offense looked yucky.
   4728. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:42 PM (#5677863)
In what ways were the officials a joke? I thought they were typical.


Road team gets double the FTs despite shooting more 3s? That's not normal.
   4729. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:45 PM (#5677864)
I mean, the officiating was a joke, but I don't think that the Warriors are favored to win. It's 2/3 in Houston.


I do think the Warriors are fundamentally a better team, especially with Iguodala probably coming back for Game 5. They're +29 in 4 games this series so far. I think Houston has a real chance to win for sure, but it's probably something like 2:1 for the Warriors I think.
   4730. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:45 PM (#5677865)
That doesn't mean they're a joke. Houston attacked the basket a ton (so did Curry, yes) and had a lot more movement than GS all game.
   4731. SteveF Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:48 PM (#5677867)
The shot chart looks like Houston has more shots in the paint. Golden State took way more midrange shots. The stats haven't updated yet, so we won't know until tomorrow.

I don't think you can just go by the 3P shot attempts. Houston attacked the basket more and were rewarded.
   4732. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:49 PM (#5677869)
The impact of the fouls was pretty big too -- Curry left the second quarter with 5:06 left, and after Harden made 2 off the foul the Warriors were still up 38-36. Quinn Cook came in for him, and this was in the same period when Klay was still coming back from tweaking his knee. Between then and the end of the quarter, KD was 0-3 with 3 points on foul shots and the Warriors went into halftime down 7, a 9 point swing.
   4733. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:56 PM (#5677874)
Yeah, I'm not buying the fouls thing. GSW was up by 10 or more in the third, right? They had a chance to run away with the game, or at least win. Houston scrapped back, Paul played his best game of the series (if not playoffs), and GSW played kinda lousy. The refs had little to do with this, in my judgment.
   4734. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5677876)
My view on it is that it was a 3 point game, so all those things matter. Foul trouble, foul shooting disparity, minor injuries, missing players, a relatively poor game from KD, a relatively poor 4Q from Steph, strong games from Harden and CP3 on balance. CP3 and Harden outplayed Curry and Durant on the night.
   4735. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5677877)
I agree with JC. I missed the first half but Golden State shoots less free throws than Houston. They are a jump shooting team and Kerr admitted they ran out of gas. Golden State just didn’t play well enough to win
   4736. spanx for the memories Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:07 AM (#5677879)
Curry and Durant played hero ball in the 4th quarter with a lot of standing around and jacking up shots. They didnt lose because of the free throw disparity, they lost because the whole team, including the coach lost focus while Rome burned. 2016 Finals, Game 7 all over again.
   4737. Howie Menckel Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:19 AM (#5677884)
geesh, maybe someone can list the last GSW close playoff game that wasn't the fault of the officials.
if you can't find one.....
   4738. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:32 AM (#5677888)
Jeez, I'm not saying that they lost because of the reffing, just that they were impacted by foul trouble and lost the battle at the free throw line, among other things, and that I don't see those rates, on average, sustaining for the rest of the series.
   4739. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:37 AM (#5677964)
What an ugly, sloppy finish. Just really bad shot choices in the last few minutes.

If Golden State just runs their offense it nearly always produces a good, frequently open shot ("open" here includes Durant getting a two over nearly anyone). Some of their possessions in the last 4 minutes (particularly shots from Curry) were just inexcusable.
   4740. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5677969)
There was a lot of good defense, but also a lot of really bad offense. I agree with Spicey in that I didn't think this was the type of game a MDA-coached team could win.

geesh, maybe someone can list the last GSW close playoff game that wasn't the fault of the officials.
if you can't find one.....


For the record, the people talking loudest about the refs in this thread aren't GS fans.
   4741. . . . . . . Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5677978)
Yeah, but the people in this thread are the sort of sophisticated fans who root for GSW as the ultimate practitioners of the jogo bonito.
   4742. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5678003)
geesh, maybe someone can list the last GSW close playoff game that wasn't the fault of the officials.
if you can't find one.....


Officiating has a big impact on games, film at 11.
   4743. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5678010)
Yes, but sometimes people claim their team got a raw deal. If that's the complaint from last night, I'm not seeing it. The refs were fine. They weren't "a joke," as someone said above. Getting to the line is a skill, and Houston's got players who are good at it. And they hit their free throws.
   4744. Manny Coon Posted: May 23, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5678023)
During the regular season the Rockets led the league in both FT/FGA and 3P/FGA and were one of the best teams in the league at not giving up FTs as well. The Warriors were mostly middle of the pack in those categories. So them having both more 3PA and FTA should not be unexpected, its what they do.
   4745. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5678033)
So them having both more 3PA and FTA should not be unexpected, its what they do.


QFT
   4746. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5678038)
Re: Ugly play

IIRC, there were 8 players who played 39 minutes or more last night so that's what happens when humans are asked to do LeBron things
   4747. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5678039)
During the regular season the Rockets led the league in both FT/FGA and 3P/FGA and were one of the best teams in the league at not giving up FTs as well. The Warriors were mostly middle of the pack in those categories. So them having both more 3PA and FTA should not be unexpected, its what they do.


On average, in the regular season, the Rockets had a +4.78 FTA split on the road. They had 7 road games all year where they earned 14 or more FTs than their opponents.

This conversation is already super boring because we can't ever have rational conversations about officiating, but no, it is not common for the Rockets to take that many more FTs than their opponent in a road game.
   4748. Howie Menckel Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5678040)
Officiating has a big impact on games, film at 11.

let's try it that way. when is the last time that GSW lucked into a win thanks to the officials?
if you can't find one....
   4749. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5678057)
let's try it that way. when is the last time that GSW lucked into a win thanks to the officials?
if you can't find one....


Probably game 2 of the New Orleans series. 5 point win, GSW shot 19 more FTs.

One thing that exacerbates this is that GSW rarely plays close games. This whole playoffs they've played two games decided by less than 10 points. 12 games have been blowouts. JC was ######## about the officials favoring GS last game in this series, but since that was a 40 point win, it's hard to say that the officials mattered.

Generally speaking, when Golden State loses, it's because (in order):
1. They shoot poorly.
2. Their opponent shoots ridiculously well.
3. They kick the ball all over the court.
4. The opponent shoots a lot more FTs.
   4750. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5678077)
Generally speaking, when Golden State loses, it's because (in order):
1. They shoot poorly.
2. Their opponent shoots ridiculously well.
3. They kick the ball all over the court.
4. The opponent shoots a lot more FTs.


I think your constant beating of this horse, which seems to be way more with Golden State than other teams, seems to boil down to "You're not good enough to beat Golden State straight up, with you playing at your median level and them playing at their median level."

Which I think has some legitimacy to it. I don't think it really applied last night, or applies in general in a game against this Houston team, or in a game where Klay is hurt and Iguodala is out. In fact, if Iguodala and Klay aren't near 100% for the rest of the series, I don't love Golden State's odds. Their defense is really another level with Iguodala. He's also their trump card to help keeping LeBron somewhat under control.
   4751. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5678084)
I don't think it really applied last night, or applies in general in a game against this Houston team

I think #3 explains last night pretty well- unforced turnovers and turnover by bad shot, combined with good shotmaking by Houston, of course, seemed to turn things in the 4th.

Much of which might be explained by fatigue, as NJ points out above.
   4752. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5678093)
I agree with Spivey. Houston deserves more credit than "they were tired" and "unforced errors" suggests. Nobody played as well as Paul in the 4th last night. Houston just flat outplayed them (and literally outplayed them in minutes, so it's not clear to me why GSW gets to plead fatigue).
   4753. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5678099)
I think your constant beating of this horse, which seems to be way more with Golden State than other teams, seems to boil down to "You're not good enough to beat Golden State straight up, with you playing at your median level and them playing at their median level."


I mean, it's literally just looking at the team level splits for wins/losses.

In wins, Golden State shoots 41% from 3. In losses, they shoot 34.5%. That difference makes up 7.2 points (because they shoot fewer 3s when they don't make them) and the total difference in points between their wins and losses is 19. So 3p shooting variance explains about 1/3 of the difference in their points.

Cleveland is the same, but even more extreme. Their 3p shooting variance makes up 9.6 points of their 13.2 point difference between wins and losses.

However, this isn't the case for every team! Boston has 3p shooting variance only make up 2.1 points of their point difference. Their losses are much better explained by defense.

Houston's splits indicate 3p shooting (but to a slightly lesser degree than GSW or CLE), but especially opponent FTA. In losses, they gave up 6.7 more FTs to opponents.
   4754. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5678110)
I don't think it really applied last night, or applies in general in a game against this Houston team


If I were to list factors that drove yesterday's game in order of less likely to continue recurring to most likely:

1. Klay picking up a minor knock and then struggling to play through it for a few key minutes
2a. Curry getting into early foul trouble, limiting his minutes, especially at a time when Klay was also struggling
2b. Quinn Cook playing
3. James Harden and Chris Paul outplaying Kevin Durant and Steph Curry
4. Andre Iguodala missing the game
5. Houston shooting roughly twice as many free throws as the Warriors

I think Houston deserves all the credit in the world for 3. and for some amount of 5. (ymmv depending on your take on the refs, their playstyle, etc.)

1. is clearly a pretty fluky outcome. 2. Is also on the fluky side just given the timing of it comboing with 1., and Curry rarely gets into foul trouble, even when playing teams in the postseason that are targeting him.

3. I think Houston deserves credit for it happening in this game, but I just think KD and Steph are generally better players collectively than Harden and CP3.

4. Iguodala's scans came back negative and he was listed questionable for game 4. Based on that I think he'll come back for Game 5.

5. That FT ratio is an outlier result compared to other GS/Houston games both this postseason and during the regular season.

Again, in aggregate, we've seen 4 games, 3 blowouts and one close game. Roll everything up and GS is +29 in 4 games across both stadiums. I think that probably somewhat overstates the gap between teams, but even with 2/3 in Houston, if GS is a neutral court +5 or so that probably nets out to a 2/3 chance to take the series.
   4755. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5678114)
Another theory. He's right about how they lose focus. Plus I hate the obnoxiousness of the "shimmy." I want Chris Childs to punch him in the face.
   4756. SteveF Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5678125)
The old school players of the 80's and 90's never would have put up with that ####.
   4757. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 23, 2018 at 12:58 PM (#5678136)
If I were to list factors that drove yesterday's game in order of less likely to continue recurring to most likely:


I am not picking on you specifically, but rather the whole genre of this sort of analysis, but can't every game in NBA history be boiled down to 4 or 5 bullet points? And for the vast majority the overlap between those bullet points is massive.

The posters here are smart, observant, and knowledgeable about basketball so I accept most of what people say about the specific games, but shooting better, playing defense better, avoiding turnovers and so forth are trite because they apply so universally. The shape of each specific win in interesting I agree, but at this point I think it is obvious that both teams (GSW & HR) are really darn good, reasonably closely matched in talent with GSW being a bit better but HR having home court, and that both teams are explosive enough than a minor advantage can quickly blossom into a big win.

It is boring, but either team can win the series or any game from here on out. It is basically a coin flip, but basically is doing a bunch of work. I suspect GSW has a tiny edge, but I sure wouldn't bet the farm on it.
   4758. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5678138)
I was thinking more of when Childs punched Bryant.
   4759. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 23, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5678141)
The Sixers Trade Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric to the Bucks for Delly and a 2018 First-Round Pick

Offseason Fantasy Island

Jason Concepcion is going full reverse-STIGGLES
   4760. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5678189)
Another theory. He's right about how they lose focus. Plus I hate the obnoxiousness of the "shimmy." I want Chris Childs to punch him in the face.


The kind of stuff in the linked article is everything I think is wrong and bad about sports journalism.

It's a perfect logical loop:
1. Why did the Warriors lose? Because they lost focus.
2. How can we tell they lost focus? Because they lost the game.
3. Why did the Warriors lose? Because they lost focus
4. repeat ad nauseum.

   4761. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: May 23, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5678193)
The old school players of the 80's and 90's never would have put up with that ####.

Danny Ainge really looks bad in that clip, petulant and cowardly.
   4762. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5678207)
Danny Ainge really looks bad in that clip, petulant and cowardly.

Didn't click, but is it a clip of every second of his career? Because that was his general deal as a player.

I was pretty young when he played for Boston, but I remember having a complicated relationship with him- kind of like a less extreme Laimbeer, maybe. My dad still hates him to this day, I have to constantly remind him he's actually done a good job in the front office.
   4763. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5678220)
[4760] That's not what he's arguing, or needs to be arguing. Sometimes losing focus leads to a loss. Sometimes it doesn't. But GSW is clearly prone to losing its focus, much as Kerr himself has said, and much as one can SEE during the game, independently of any outcome.
   4764. smileyy Posted: May 23, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5678234)
Speaking of officiating:

[Iguodala is] also their trump card to help keeping LeBron somewhat under control.


...by getting away with fouling the $*(# out of him.
   4765. kubiwan Posted: May 23, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5678259)
They had 7 road games all year where they earned 14 or more FTs than their opponents.
it is not common for the Rockets to take that many more FTs than their opponent in a road game.


Well, they only played 41 road games, so that is right at 1 in 6. I agree that it is not "common", but I would argue it is not "uncommon" either, and it certainly shouldn't be surprising or evidence of bad officiating or whatever when it does happen.
   4766. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5678303)
Clips give Doc a contract extension.
   4767. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5678340)
Extremely overly simplistic take alert, but it seems like a team with 2 first team all defense guys (the Pelicans, Davis and Holiday) should have finished higher than 14th in Def Rtg and 29th in opponents ppg.
   4768. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5678358)
Russell Westbrook with 7 all defense votes, 1 for first team! That's amazing.
   4769. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5678388)
Things that stood out to me during the game:

Durant was taking some tough, low-quality shots. Hit a bunch of them! but his qSQ was poor and it showed in his efficiency. Some of that was Houston's D, some of it was settling.
The Warriors settled a lot during that fourth quarter, notable given their usual shockingly high efficiency relative to the league late in the shot clock. That was in part because they were and looked tired. They don't have much wing depth (weird) and being without Iguodala, their Ariza but with more playmaking (and less shooting), was especially crippling late with Thompson gimpy and the Ws unable to tread water during their Curry-less minutes, due to his fouls. (HOU does an unusually good job of targeting him, especially when they've got their more athletic perimeter oriented lineups at their disposal.)

Still, Houston won it v. Golden State losing it - erratic, but good game.
   4770. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:24 PM (#5678389)
Lillard got a vote; ha!

Holiday's a good defender, but should not be first team all-D.
   4771. Rally Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5678392)
Extremely overly simplistic take alert, but it seems like a team with 2 first team all defense guys (the Pelicans, Davis and Holiday) should have finished higher than 14th in Def Rtg and 29th in opponents ppg.


Simplistic, yes, but very valid since basketball results are the work of only 5 guys on the court. For them to be middle of the pack with 2 true all-NBA defenders, then you would have to believe that 2 other starters are the near the worst on defense and another just average, with ordinary bench contributions.
   4772. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:36 PM (#5678399)
Simplistic, yes, but very valid since basketball results are the work of only 5 guys on the court. For them to be middle of the pack with 2 true all-NBA defenders, then you would have to believe that 2 other starters are the near the worst on defense and another just average, with ordinary bench contributions.

The other guys who played the most minutes are Cousins (then Mirotic), Rondo, and Moore, none of whom are known as terrible defenders as far as I know.

I'm not trying to bag on Davis or Holiday, I just think it's a funny quirk of the voting.
   4773. maccoach57 Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5678405)
It is boring, but either team can win the series or any game from here on out


Pretty much. My own take is that it pretty much comes down to the fact that Golden State has Durant. I think he is the difference-maker on the two rosters, and I think he will have one more huge game that makes the difference in the series. Caveat is the obvious one: health issues with Thompson and Iguodala.

   4774. Manny Coon Posted: May 23, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5678418)
Clips give Doc a contract extension


Wins last 4 seasons: 56, 53, 51,42
Austin minutes per game for Clippers: 19.3, 21.9, 27.8, 33.7

Clearly an organization with leadership that deserves to be rewarded for moving the team in the right direction.
   4775. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 23, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5678419)
Thoughts/predictions for tonight? I *think* we'll get a close game, that's as far out on a ledge that I'll go.
   4776. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 23, 2018 at 05:25 PM (#5678425)
My expectation is that LeBron gets a huge triple double but the Cavs role players turn back into pumpkins in Boston. My guess is Stevens uses Horford and Baynes together more to combat Thompson/Nance. Honestly, however, almost no outcome would shock me.
   4777. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5678428)
Simplistic, yes, but very valid since basketball results are the work of only 5 guys on the court. For them to be middle of the pack with 2 true all-NBA defenders, then you would have to believe that 2 other starters are the near the worst on defense and another just average, with ordinary bench contributions.

The other guys who played the most minutes are Cousins (then Mirotic), Rondo, and Moore, none of whom are known as terrible defenders as far as I know.



Well, Cousins is a bad defender and is particularly bad as a transition defender. Further, he forces Davis to play out of position.

Rondo is also an arsonist. Moore is just undersized, but still not good.
   4778. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 23, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5678430)
Yeah, I kinda wanted to predict some sort of monster LeBron game, but that's basically been every playoff game - he's averaging 33.7/8.7/9 on 55% shooting. I know the defense effort comes and goes, but at least offensively, it might be his best playoff statistically so far (some of that will depend on how many more games he plays, of course).
   4779. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:14 PM (#5678441)
I think Cleveland wins.
   4780. aberg Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:21 PM (#5678443)
My gut is also that Cleveland wins. I have no evidence to support it, but my suspicion is that Boston is more likely to be reeling from the punch on the nose than Cleveland was after game 2 due to past experience. OTOH, there is definitely a precedent for Cleveland's role players laying eggs in Boston.
   4781. maccoach57 Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:26 PM (#5678446)
I am going with James and the LeBronlets in a close one. But I am biased, and I just can't pick against James in the East until he loses.
   4782. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:27 PM (#5678447)
I feel part 4781, and part 4780, in that I think Boston's youth has been exposed a bit. But I think it'll be close, at least early. Oddly, if there's a blowout, I think it'll be a Boston victory.
   4783. smileyy Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:28 PM (#5678448)
it might be his best playoff statistically so far


2008-9 was monstrous, though with lower rate stats: 35.3/9.1/7.3 but only shooting .510 from the floor, with a lower eFG%...and also an absurd .399 WS/48 (for whatever value you give that stat)
   4784. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:37 PM (#5678450)
Clips give Doc a contract extension.


...why?
   4785. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:19 PM (#5678463)
No idea. But if The Logo signed off on it...
   4786. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:21 PM (#5678464)
Nepotism. Gotta keep your superstar happy.
   4787. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:24 PM (#5678465)
Said it before and will say it again, Doc Rivers must be the absolute most spectacularly skilled backroom politician in the basketball world.
   4788. Moeball Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:26 PM (#5678466)
My predictions have no power behind them, but here goes anyways: BOS wins G5 which will force LeBron to win G7 on the road if CLE is going to get to the Finals.

GSW will win G5 in HOU forcing the Rockets to win an elimination G6 on the road if Hou is going to advance.

I give Cle better odds of pulling that off than I do Hou.
   4789. JJ1986 Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:28 PM (#5678468)
I don't think the Clippers should be trying to win right now and I wouldn't want Rivers on a rebuilding team, but he is still a good coach once you strip away his poor GMing.
   4790. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:49 PM (#5678474)
Said it before and will say it again, Doc Rivers must be the absolute most spectacularly skilled backroom politician in the basketball world.
it worked for howie roseman.
   4791. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5678507)
That Higher Love remake is making me hate the NBA
   4792. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5678513)
1. I think Doc is a good coach, and as long as he actually wants the job, he'll probably do a good job coaching. Just don't let him have any say on personnel.
2. I think both home teams win game 5. Sorry to be boring.
   4793. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:05 PM (#5678520)
I don't know if LBJ is tired, but he's certainly "picking his spots" at this point.
   4794. PJ Martinez Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:07 PM (#5678521)
Why didn't Korver get any first-quarter minutes?
   4795. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:09 PM (#5678522)
I wondered the same thing, even when Love went out with two and 45+ seconds, why not bring him in for a shot at 3? Bizarre.
   4796. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:13 PM (#5678524)
Nothing would surprise me in the East Playoffs anymore. That said, it's hard to watch games like this and not think of the recent ESPN article about Lebron's microrestingmicroresting and roll my eyes a little.

   4797. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:14 PM (#5678525)
Ahem: I think the Celtics got a favorable whistle in the 1st.

(Please remember this instance of impartiality when I complain about the Cavs/refs later.)
   4798. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5678528)
Marcus Morris is a total chump.
   4799. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5678529)
That's a horseshit call, refs.
   4800. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5678532)
The tech calls? I thought they handled that well. Morris deserved one for sure. He's an idiot. That was a stupid, stupid play.
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