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Saturday, September 09, 2017

OT - 2017 NFL thread

Free agent NFL cornerback Antonio Cromartie and his wife Terricka announced the birth of baby girl Jhett Paxton, born Aug. 30.

This is the couple’s sixth child, and it is Cromartie’s fourteenth. By our count, it is his third child since (supposedly) having a vasectomy during his tenure with the New York Jets in 2013.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 09, 2017 at 12:36 AM | 2149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

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   2001. Ray (CTL) Posted: February 05, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5619810)
And frankly Manning has nothing like Foles's postseason record. At Manning's best in the playoffs he didn't come particularly close to what Foles did this year.

Last night we saw a graphic of Foles's 2017 regular season vs his 2018 playoff record. People drew the wrong conclusion that he's been clutch in the playoffs. Actually he's the same quarterback; what changed is that everyone else was in midseason form when Foles took over for Wentz, and by the playoffs Foles had kicked the rust off AND his coach had begun to believe in him, opening up the playbook for him.
   2002. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: February 05, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5619862)
Last night we saw a graphic of Foles's 2017 regular season vs his 2018 playoff record. People drew the wrong conclusion that he's been clutch in the playoffs. Actually he's the same quarterback; what changed is that everyone else was in midseason form when Foles took over for Wentz, and by the playoffs Foles had kicked the rust off AND his coach had begun to believe in him, opening up the playbook for him.
So you're saying that after missing a beat while Foles kicked off the rust, by the playoffs the Eagles were back to being a top offense despite Wentz's absence? Fair enough.
   2003. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 05, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5619915)
The ESPN Win Probability model strongly recommended going for it on the Eagles' 4th and 1 on their own 45. The decision alone (independent of the result) increased their chance of winning by 7.3%. They needed at least a 39% chance of success to make the... https://t.co/G3OkAgxaSu
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) February 5, 2018


ESPN's Win Probability (WP) model liked that 4th down decision on the goal line by the Eagles. In total it was a +3.4% WP decision. WP for a FG attempt would be 69.3%, while the WP for going for the touchdown was 72.7%. Philadelphia needed a 41% chance... https://t.co/xpYoqoWVoC
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) February 5, 2018


   2004. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 05, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5619936)
Foles also played in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Pretty sure his HOF candidacy will consider those stats as well.

You can't just claim it's Foles + System, because 2013 and 2014 were both under Kelly, with wildly divergent results. Foles has had a monster postseason - much like Flacco or Warner or E Manning before him. Time will tell if he can sustain anything resembling 2013 again, or if he's just another Jeff Hostetler. History augurs poorly. For now, though, Foles can soak up the glory and cash in, he's earned it.
   2005. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5619947)
Foles biggest issue is staying healthy for a full season. I think he's starting QB worthy. I don't think he's an elite QB.
   2006. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 05, 2018 at 04:50 PM (#5619960)
He wasn't hurt for this game or this one. I'd say he needs to worry about consistency as much as getting hurt.

Kudos for a great postseason; we'll see if he turns out to be Matt Cassel/Matt Flynn or Drew Brees/Philip Rivers. I'll bet somewhere in between. No need for any self-appointed experts to anoint Foles as the next Brady quite yet.
   2007. zenbitz Posted: February 05, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5619966)

Really now, how people didn't understand that Foles was a top quarterback is very difficult to understand. Or justify.


When you're right Ray, you are right. But as @2004 suggests, the guy spent 4 years and over 500 pass attempts being utterly unremarkable, or even flat out bad.

Yes, we were skeptical of Foles. And I think reasonably so.

If you ran the Eagles, would you dump Wentz for him? Say you are one of the 15 Qb-wanting teams-- do you go after Foles (assuming you can pry him off of Philly? Or Kirk Cousins? Or try to get one of the hot draft picks?

   2008. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5619978)
If you ran the Eagles, would you dump Wentz for him?
Keep salary in mind here, too. Wentz is under his mandated rookie contract for another couple years. The price of Foles just went up. And he has a weird clause in his contract that voids the last couple years, or something nutty like that. The Eagles as a franchise are much better off trading Foles for assets, paying Wentz less, and shoring up other contracts.

Of course, if you consider Foles to be the second coming of Joe Montana's savvy, Michael Vick's athleticism, and Dan Marino's arm, by all means bet that farm on the guy.
   2009. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:23 PM (#5619980)
I thought Foles signed a two year contract.

Edit. I see now. If he is still an eagle after the 2018 season he becomes a free agent but if they trade him before then then he's still got three years left on the contract. So Foles is definitely more valuable as a trade chit than as a #2 QB. Now of course the question becomes how well Wentz comes back from his injury. Definitely going to be a tough question for the front office. Balancing short term insurance versus long term potential gains.
   2010. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:44 PM (#5619990)
i expect roseman to handle this situation the same way he handled the bradford one two years ago. he'll keep both QBs unless someone offers a 1st round pick (or two #2s, or a #2 and a #3; whatever price he thinks is fair) for foles.

he didn't get greedy when he traded bradford. he set a price, and when MIN matched it 10 days before the start of the season, he didn't take advantage of their desperation. instead of trying to claw every possible drop of value out of it, he was reasonable and the deal got done.

the same thing will be true here.


and it helps that foles and wentz are comfortable with each other, with the coaching staff, with the organization, the city and the entire situation.
   2011. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5619994)
Hey, I just thought of something. Whatever happened to Stiggles? You'd think he'd at least being dropping around to say something about his team.
   2012. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5619997)
Still passed out somewhere? ;)
   2013. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:58 PM (#5620002)
There were reports of people sustaining head injuries after falling off of light poles.
   2014. SoSH U at work Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:59 PM (#5620003)

Hey, I just thought of something. Whatever happened to Stiggles? You'd think he'd at least being dropping around to say something about his team.


Is that a joke? I can't tell.


ESPN's Win Probability (WP) model liked that 4th down decision on the goal line by the Eagles.


I couldn't believe Colinsworth was so stunned with that decision. THe only problem I had with it was if you know you're going for it on fourth, then you shouldn't be throwing the ball on third (at least make New England burn a TO if you don't get it).
   2015. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 05, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5620005)
i think we need to consider re-evaluating our assumptions about roster building.

since 1999:
QBs making serious money have won 7 of 19 super bowls (2016 NE; 2015 DEN; 2014 NE; 2011 NYG; 2010 GBP; 2009 NO; 2006 IND)
franchise QBs on rookie contracts have won 8 of 19 (2013 SEA; 2012 BAL; 2008 PIT; 2007 NYG; 2005 PIT; 2004 NE; 2003 NE; 2001 NE)
cheap veterans have won 4 of 19 (2017 PHI; 2002 TB; 2000 BAL; 1999 STL)


obviously the financial landscape has changed multiple times over that period, but there may have been an overcorrection towards franchise QBs that appears to be counterproductive....kurt cousins.
   2016. Ray (CTL) Posted: February 05, 2018 at 06:10 PM (#5620008)
I couldn't believe Colinsworth was so stunned with that decision.


It's the NFL's version of failing to double down on 10 against a 9. You're in a good position and it's time to be aggressive.

The NFL coaches are the people at your blackjack table who have a 16 but can't bring themselves to hit against a dealer's 10. It's just percentages. (Unless the person is counting - then it may make sense to stand pat.)
   2017. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 05, 2018 at 06:19 PM (#5620010)
2015: If you think "hope you have lightning in a bottle with your recently drafted QB" is a tenable strategy, go for it. The hard part is telling Russell Wilson from JaMarcus Russell.

Even with the advantage of having Wilson under a rookie contract for another few years, the Seahawks were unable to win a second SB, and his contract now means they're breaking up the band. That's the way it's gone for everyone but the Pats as long as anyone can remember anymore :(

Once Brady retires, it's *likely* the Pats return to normal. The Colts couldn't keep it up after Manning left, even with Luck. Staying on top is hard.
   2018. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 05, 2018 at 06:37 PM (#5620018)
Even with the advantage of having Wilson under a rookie contract for another few years, the Seahawks were unable to win a second SB, and his contract now means they're breaking up the band. That's the way it's gone for everyone but the Pats as long as anyone can remember anymore :(

there's a good chance that 4 QBs drafted after the 1st round in 2012 will win the super bowl.

counting osweiler and foles is kind of cheating and i did take a shot at cousins in literally the last post i made, but /whatever
   2019. Voodoo Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5620036)
Anyone following the Malcolm Butler saga? Former Super Bowl hero turned All-Pro corner (had an up and down year this season). Played 98% of defensive snaps this season, the most of any defensive player in the league. Played three plays, all in special teams, last night, while the Pats secondary got torched, missed several crucial third down tackles, etc. Nobody is saying why.

Bradys legacy wasn't hurt at all last night, in fact it was probably helped (all those records). Belichick, however, may have finally let his ego cost the team a ring.
   2020. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5620039)
Well, technically Bill had an answer for Brady leaving all lined up. It was just that Kraft wasn't willing to take the risk nor the heat of sending Brady off. I could absolutely see Bill trading Tom this offseason or signing Jimmy to an extension that made it clear he was going to be the QB after 2018.
   2021. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:30 PM (#5620043)
I couldn't believe Colinsworth was so stunned with that decision. THe only problem I had with it was if you know you're going for it on fourth, then you shouldn't be throwing the ball on third (at least make New England burn a TO if you don't get it).


Or if you know you're going for it in fourth, have a play ready and rush to the line. Pretty good chance the defense won't be ready and will burn a timeout.

Well, technically Bill had an answer for Brady leaving all lined up. It was just that Kraft wasn't willing to take the risk nor the heat of sending Brady off. I could absolutely see Bill trading Tom this offseason or signing Jimmy to an extension that made it clear he was going to be the QB after 2018.


Actually, my spidey sense--might be wrong, just a pulled-from-ass hunch--is that Belichick is about to leave the Patriots, probably to take a year off and then join the Giants in a Coughlinesque team president role. I just think giving Garoppolo away for less than he was worth is very un-Belichicklike, and whatever weirdness happened with Butler... they feel like the decisions of a man who already knows he isn't coming back next year.
   2022. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:34 PM (#5620045)
   2023. zenbitz Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5620048)
The weed stuff is getting funny. 49ers rookie got busted for possession in Alabama this off season... But it's basically legal on the west coast + Colorado.

I guess you can still sit a guy for "curfew violations".
   2024. Voodoo Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5620049)
It's a big stain on BB if weed or women or whatever made him bench one of his best players in a game where his replacements were roasted left and right...
   2025. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5620050)
I think the rumor was that Bill was setting up the franchise for the future, it would further cement his legacy of he could have the next franchise QB ready to go along with being the mentor of the next head coach, and Kraft and Brady got in the way. He might very well be saying eff it but I kind of doubt it.
   2026. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5620051)

Actually, my spidey sense--might be wrong, just a pulled-from-ass hunch--is that Belichick is about to leave the Patriots, probably to take a year off and then join the Giants in a Coughlinesque team president role. I just think giving Garoppolo away for less than he was worth is very un-Belichicklike, and whatever weirdness happened with Butler... they feel like the decisions of a man who already knows he isn't coming back next year.
Eh, holding onto Garoppolo for as long as possible then still getting something back seems very Belichiklike, and the thing with Butler seems more like the decision of a man who already knows Butler isn't coming back next year (and of one who may have had a bit too much faith in his system). We'll see.
   2027. Voodoo Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:51 PM (#5620057)
Butler not coming back next year has been a known fact for a while.

Belichick not playing him in the SB is another thing entirely.
   2028. JJ1986 Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:53 PM (#5620058)
There's no way benching Butler was a football decision. He wasn't just demoted behind Rowe, but Jordan Richards and Johnson Bademosi were on the field for big defensive plays and were roasted repeatedly.
   2029. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: February 05, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5620061)
This is Bill Belichick. If it were a football decision, Rowe would have gotten very snap the last two weeks in practice.
   2030. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5620064)
The Patriots succeed because they believe in the system above all else. If a player doesn't fit in or buy in he ain't playing and he isn't going to be on the team for long. Bill sitting a player because he failed the system in some way is totally believable to me. Bill isn't trying to win a super bowl he's trying to win them all.
   2031. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:56 AM (#5620149)
The Patriots succeed because they believe in the system above all else. If a player doesn't fit in or buy in he ain't playing and he isn't going to be on the team for long. Bill sitting a player because he failed the system in some way is totally believable to me. Bill isn't trying to win a super bowl he's trying to win them all.

no. they're not a ####### cult. they're not some mystic society from a damn comic book.


they succeed because of precision passing, rampant cheating, exceptional game planning and exceptional game management. it's not that hard to understand.
   2032. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:56 AM (#5620150)
Hey, I just thought of something. Whatever happened to Stiggles? You'd think he'd at least being dropping around to say something about his team.
that guy's an #######. he can go #### himself.
   2033. McCoy Posted: February 06, 2018 at 07:11 AM (#5620165)
Re 2031. I'm not sure how that is a rebuttal of what I said. How do you think they accomplish all that year in and year out?
   2034. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5620269)
Hey, I just thought of something. Whatever happened to Stiggles? You'd think he'd at least being dropping around to say something about his team.

that guy's an #######. he can go #### himself.


After seeing the number of comments you've made (11,753), even though I've never noticed that 57i66135 moniker until recently, my natural response is to ask a followup question:

Are you the artist formerly known as Stiggles?
   2035. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5620279)
Are you the artist formerly known as Stiggles?


He's still known as that, Andy. 57i66l35 is a Stiggles' way of writing Stiggles (the 5 is an S, the 7 is a T, etc.)
   2036. Ray (CTL) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5620287)
Well, the mystery of the disappearance of Stiggles has been solved. He was hiding in plain sight.

Now, what oh what may have become of Fancy Pants, Dog on the Sidewalk, Bitter Mouse, LanceReddickLanceHim, and some others, now that Foles led his team to the championship? Are their calls coming from inside the thread also?
   2037. JJ1986 Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5620293)
Man, Ray, the 2011 Red Sox prediction really did a number on you.
   2038. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5620301)
Ray's going to post a comment a day somewhere on the site in May forecasting each of the 32 teams as the SB LIII champion. Then next February he'll copy and paste the post that "wins" and demand we declare fealty to his self-appointed expertedness.
   2039. Ray (CTL) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:49 AM (#5620304)
Man, Ray, the 2011 Red Sox prediction really did a number on you.


To be clear, I didn't predict that Foles would in fact lead his team to a championship. I simply had all the confidence in him that he could -- and not that he would be carried there if they won but that he could carry the team there. As evidenced by Andy's post here from December:

491. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 18, 2017 at 11:02 PM (#5594836)

I don't see how anyone can knock what Foles did yesterday. It may not mean much going forward if a better team than the Giants can force him out of the pocket, but it's hard to argue with a 115.8 rating, junk stat or not.

241 yards on 38 passes against one of the worst pass defenses in the league is not something to brag about. It's not terrible, and I see nothing to complain about when you pair it with a 4/0 TD/INT.

Which was kind of the point. I'm not saying he could duplicate it against a team with a much better defense (see above qualification), but let's say he's passed the first test. We'll see down the road whether Ray's confidence in Foles is misplaced.


Consider it seen. Confidence not misplaced.
   2040. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5620366)
After seeing the number of comments you've made (11,753), even though I've never noticed that 57i66135 moniker until recently, my natural response is to ask a followup question:

Are you the artist formerly known as Stiggles?
no.

i'm still STIGGLES. also 57i66135. also steagles. and i guess stiggles. also STEAGLES!!!!!

but "the artist formerly known as...".....nah. that's someone else.
   2041. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5620375)
It's not cool until you write it with emojis.
   2042. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5620381)
Re 2031. I'm not sure how that is a rebuttal of what I said. How do you think they accomplish all that year in and year out?

they have bill belliczech. and somewhat less essentially, tom brady.

   2043. PanRains Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5620523)
Ray's going to post a comment a day somewhere on the site in May forecasting each of the 32 teams as the SB LIII champion. Then next February he'll copy and paste the post that "wins" and demand we declare fealty to his self-appointed expertedness.


As a Browns' fan, I know how you can save yourself a day, Ray.
   2044. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5620728)
this is a great wrinkle in the story:

Inside the NFL @insidetheNFL
.@NFoles_9 made the call, made the touchdown and made history. #PhillySpecial

Watch more @NFLFilms highlights on the #InsideTheNFL finale TONIGHT 9PM ET/PT on Showtime.

@Eagles #SBLII #FlyEaglesFly #Eagles
https://twitter.com/insidetheNFL/status/960988157264068608
"yeah, let's do it."
   2045. McCoy Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:43 PM (#5620782)
they have bill belliczech. and somewhat less essentially, tom brady.

And again, Bill has a system that he gets people to buy into. He has no problem jettisoning guys who no longer can play at the highest level in his system or if they don't buy into the system.
   2046. McCoy Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5620786)
"yeah, let's do it."

He could have made himself a lot of money if he had called it "Philly Dilly".

   2047. MHS Posted: February 07, 2018 at 07:15 AM (#5620934)
The Josh McDaniels stuff is fascinating. It feels like their a lot of story to be told in New England, with the Butler stuff and the McDaniels stuff and the rumors that Schiano might supersede Flores as DC.

   2048. dlf Posted: February 07, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5621302)
Big trade of a franchise QB today. Russell Wilson was traded ... by the Texas Rangers to the New York Yankees. Here's hoping that he decides to play a real sport instead of continuing on in the NFL. Link
   2049. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 07, 2018 at 05:13 PM (#5621427)
oh...i forgot that jeff fisher cut nick foles with a phone call that was recorded by hard knocks on HBO.

   2050. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 07, 2018 at 06:54 PM (#5621525)
if you want to see how the eagles were able to carve up the patriots D, scroll through this timeline on tweeter.

it's great stuff, but if you're too lazy to click through, the center and right guard were studs, pre-snap motion is essential to modern QB play, foles made quick decisions and good throws, and alshon jeffery can catch anything that moves.
   2051. McCoy Posted: February 07, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5621556)
Well, the Patriots after the first quarter were able to contain Alshon for the rest of the game and in terms of actually catching the ball he was a non entity in the second half.
   2052. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 07, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5621622)
if you want to see how the eagles were able to carve up the patriots D, scroll through this timeline on tweeter.


Stigs, thanks for that link. Terrific stuff.
   2053. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 07, 2018 at 10:49 PM (#5621633)
i'm still STIGGLES. also 57i66135. also steagles. and i guess stiggles. also STEAGLES!!!!!

You've come a long way, my feathered friend.

   2054. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 08, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5621691)
Well, the mystery of the disappearance of Stiggles has been solved. He was hiding in plain sight.

Now, what oh what may have become of Fancy Pants

He is way too fancy to hide in plain sight.
   2055. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 08, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5621706)
I still listen to the Bill Simmons podcast sometimes because even though I'm somehow able to just be amused by it when it's entertaining and not be annoyed by it when it isn't.

One thing I always found ridiculous, though, is how he always talks about how Mike Lombardi is the like THE NFL GUY. Hear a lot of "Lombardi said" this or that.

The only actual "Lombardi said" that didn't go in one-ear-out-the-other for me was about how Pederson is the worst coach in the history of the NFL. Just fantastic to think about.
   2056. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 08, 2018 at 09:45 AM (#5621711)
Well, the Patriots after the first quarter were able to contain Alshon for the rest of the game and in terms of actually catching the ball he was a non entity in the second half.


Yeah, but they had to dedicate their only competent cover guy to the task, leaving the rest of the Eagles' receivers free to run wild.

It seems likely enough that McDaniels ditched Indianapolis because he received a concrete promise from the Patriots that he would be their next head coach. Perhaps even now. On the other hand, there would be nothing illogical about McDaniels suddenly coming to his senses and asking himself, "I'm in high demand--why in the hell do I want to take over the least talented team in the NFL so I can work day in, day out for Jim Irsay?"

Another possibility is that Irsay lied to McDaniels about Andrew Luck's shoulder, and subsequently McDaniels saw the medicals for himself and realized Luck's career is over (which, I note with infinite sadness and fervent hope that I am wrong, it probably is).
   2057. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 08, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5621757)

The only actual "Lombardi said" that didn't go in one-ear-out-the-other for me was about how Pederson is the worst coach in the history of the NFL. Just fantastic to think about.


To be fair he was also saying that about Ben McAdoo. So, batting .500.
   2058. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 08, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5621773)
the least talented team in the NFL
The Browns have been working REALLY HARD for this title, and you just cavalierly brush them aside...

Big losers in the McDaniels caper - the three assistants who quit their jobs and signed contracts with Indy. Hope the new HC is comfortable switching to 4-3.
   2059. Ray (CTL) Posted: February 08, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5621781)
In the "beat not missed" category....

If my math is right we have the following stats in games started by each QB:

Wentz: 11-2 record, outscored his opponents by a 1.63-1 ratio (404-248), which (multiplying by 20 to put it into terms more relatable) is an average score of 33-20.

Foles: 6-1 record, outscored his opponents by a 1.55-1 ratio (147-95), which (multiplying by 20) is an average score of 31-20.

Beat really not missed, and Foles did half of his work in the playoffs.


   2060. zenbitz Posted: February 08, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5621809)
Hey I heard Nick Foles had a couple nice games in the playoffs. That was somewhat unexpected!

Can anyone confirm?
   2061. bunyon Posted: February 08, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5621821)
I probably missed a lengthy discussion but what of Foles now?

When is Wentz slated to return? Will the Eagles keep Foles as a backup. The best point made in the last hundred or so points is that having a non-schlub backup QB really paid off for Philly. But will Foles be content to spend another year in that role? Or would Wentz?

   2062. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 08, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5621844)
Wentz is rumored to have blown more than one ligament, so no one really knows his exact timeframe. Dollars to donuts they keep Foles around for his last year. His contract voids if he's still an Eagle in spring of 2019, but they can trade him either during the season (once they're confident Wentz is back) or just after, and my understanding is the new team would have him for a couple years at least.

Might be smart to do it midyear for whatever contender has their starter get hurt, and pick up max draft picks.

Funny how literally no one predicted Foles would be any good.
   2063. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 08, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5621871)
The only actual "Lombardi said" that didn't go in one-ear-out-the-other for me was about how Pederson is the worst coach in the history of the NFL. Just fantastic to think about.
yeah, that thing was very odd

the narrative took a turn for out of bounds last week when several anonymous sources suggested defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is actively angling for Pederson’s job.

one day before the start of the regular season, when Jeff McLane for The Philadelphia Inquirer was able to resuscitate the dead horse. According to McLane, an anonymous Eagles staffer indicated it is widely believed among the team’s assistant coaches that Schwartz is “trying to undercut” Pederson, while three anonymous players claim it’s “well-known in the locker room that Schwartz is waiting to usurp power.” No names on the record, besides Lombardi – who praised his buddy Schwartz – and only one quote from anybody inside the NovaCare Complex.


   2064. SoSH U at work Posted: February 08, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5622016)
Hey Ray, have you considered the possibility that no one is coming in to say you were right because you've covered that topic so comprehensively?

   2065. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 08, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5622034)
Wentz is rumored to have blown more than one ligament,

The irony is that he remained on the field after that injury, and on his final play threw the TD pass that eventually clinched the NFC postseason HFA for the Eagles.
   2066. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: February 08, 2018 at 04:50 PM (#5622217)
JimmyGQ reportedly has signed for 5/137.5M. That is not a typo.
   2067. zenbitz Posted: February 08, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5622232)
500k/an more than Stafford. Seems fair. I wasn't *expecting* him to break the record, but it's not that surprising.
I think Cousins might get more than Jimmy Guapo.

   2068. zenbitz Posted: February 08, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5622242)
I thought I had to link FO QB playoff stats updated here.

Note that #1 in yards and points per drive... Colin Kaepernick.

...you won't see Foles in any of the main tables below, because he doesn't meet the requirements of six playoff starts for drive stats or 150 pass attempts for DVOA.


But on a per-postseason basis, Foles' 2017 ranked 4th behind: Montana 1989, Brady 2017 and... Flacco 2012
   2069. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 09, 2018 at 12:19 AM (#5622374)
96%.


oh, also the eagles QB coach got hired to be MIN's OC.

it looked like the coaching staff was gonna get spared from an offseason bloodletting, but between this and frank reich getting interviewed by IND, they might wind up losing some important pieces.
   2070. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 09, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5622524)
But on a per-postseason basis, Foles' 2017 ranked 4th behind: Montana 1989, Brady 2017 and... Flacco 2012

Hey, what's with the... ? Flacco totally outplayed both Brady and Peyton Manning on the way to his Super Bowl MVP. Enough with the disrespect.
   2071. zenbitz Posted: February 09, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5622663)
The ... is that Flacco has a great 2012 post season and has been a pumpkin even since. This relates to Foles who had a great 2017 post season and...
   2072. Greg Pope Posted: February 09, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5622809)
But will Foles be content to spend another year in that role?

Foles probably deserves a starting job. The last 3 QB's under Jeff Fisher are Nick Foles, Case Keenum, and Jared Goff. Goff had a great year after Fisher was fired.

Fisher as ruiner of QB's?

EDIT: Oops, I thought this thread was 200 posts long, not 2000. Apologies if this point has already been made.
   2073. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 09, 2018 at 07:05 PM (#5622819)
should MIL have gone after blake griffin?

would LAC rather have tobias harris than jabari parker or malcolm brogdon?
would LAC have required middleton as salary ballast, or could MIL have used some combination of teletovic/henson/snell/dellavadova instead?


   2074. SoSH U at work Posted: February 09, 2018 at 07:31 PM (#5622826)
I don't think the Chargers could use any of those guys.
   2075. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 09, 2018 at 08:13 PM (#5622836)
Well played in 2074, SoSH!
   2076. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:09 AM (#5624684)
I don't think the Chargers could use any of those guys.
i think at least one of them would be an upgrade at WR, TE or S.

anyway, here's the offcial 57i66135 eagles offseason plan v.1.0.c:

cut: brent celek, torrey smith; post-july 1: donnie jones, chris maragos
trade: vinny curry (or cut post-july 1), nick foles (but only for a 2nd round pick, plus another mid-round pick or an interesting young player), nelson agholor (for something like a 3 and a 4; i don't want to pay what it'll take to extend him, but i might be willing to ride out his rookie contract)
contract restructure: jason peters, mychal kendricks

free agents to keep: darren sproles, najee goode, beau allen

free agents to let leave:
nigel bradham (he's great, but he's aging and the eagles don't have cap space to keep him)
patrick robinson (see: bradham)
lagarrette blount (ajayi, clement and sproles leave him without a role)
trey burton (i'd love to keep him, but not enough cap space)

notable free agents to target:
gerald hodges: need a LB to replace to bradham; hodges is young-ish, productive and shouldn't be too expensive
mike wallace: he's over 30, so he should be cheap/ish, but he's not fully cooked.

mock draft
1 (32): equanimeous st brown, WR, UND (size and speed; another weapon for wentz)
4 (31): marcell frazier, DE, mizzou (size and speed; another pass rusher for schultz)
4 (32): frank ragnow, OL, arkansas (bielema OL have a good track record)
5 (18): shaq griffin, LB, UCF (fast and physical OLB; has one hand)
5 (32): marcus allen, S, PSU (good developmental safety; contributes on special teams; can play nickel LB)
6 (32): quadree henderson, WR, pitt (return specialist/slot receiver/jet sweep)

the best case for the eagles is to trade down from the first round. st brown is a good prospect, but i don't see much separation between any of the top 10 wide receivers this year. if they can turn their #1 and a #4 into a #2 and two #3s, they'd be able to get a comparable WR (cobbs, kirk or miller), plus a better pass rusher (my eyes are on chad thomas) and a high level TE (gesicki, schultz, fumigali)


projected roster:
QB (3): wentz, foles, sudfeld
RB (4): ajayi, clement*^, sproles^, TBD
WR (6): jeffery, wallace, agholor, st brown, hollins*, henderson^
TE (2): ertz, zaruba*
OL (8): peters, johnson, vaitai, brooks, wisniewski, seumalu, kelce, ragnow

DE (6): graham, barnett, long, means*, frazier, TBD
DT (5): cox, jernigan, allen, vaeao, qualls
LB (6): kendricks, hicks, hodges, griffin*, goode*, grugier-hill*
CB (5): darby, mills, jones, douglas*, TBD
S (5): jenkins, mcleod, watkins*, allen*, sullivan*

ST (3): elliott (K), johnston (P), lovato* (LS); core special teamers get stars*; return specialists get carrots^
   2077. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 14, 2018 at 06:49 AM (#5624702)
Equanimeous Tristan Imhotep J. St. Brown


I have no idea who the #### this is (don't pay any attention to college), but just based on his name, I hope he is the biggest bust that ever busted.
   2078. SoSH U at work Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5624797)
Equanimeous Tristan Imhotep J. St. Brown

I have no idea who the #### this is (don't pay any attention to college), but just based on his name, I hope he is the biggest bust that ever busted.


Eagles Scouting Director Keion Peal is very high on him. Can't stop talking about him.
   2079. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5624827)
I have no idea who the #### this is (don't pay any attention to college), but just based on his name, I hope he is the biggest bust that ever busted.
also, notre dame.
   2080. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5624846)

Eagles Scouting Director Keion Peal is very high on him. Can't stop talking about him.


His last press conference lasted 15 hours.
   2081. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 09, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5636317)
can i say, again, that i really like what CLE is doing?

they need to sign another 2 DBs (eric reid and trumaine johnson) and another young-ish WR (jordan matthews) in free agency. maybe throw in an upgrade or two on special teams.

then they can draft QB darnold #1 (personally, i don't love any of the QBs this year so i'd rather have RB barkley, but new GMs tend to want franchise QBs) and spend the rest of the draft getting offensive playmakers, improving their depth at OL and DB and making a bunch of trades to turn their excess of current picks into an excess of future picks. they should trade down from #4 to around #15-#20, where the 2nd tier of DBs (alexander, jackson, jackson, ward, reid) look awesome, and they should keep trading down throughout the rest of the draft. the middle rounds are stocked at WR and RB, and the browns would be smart to take advantage of that. they can draft 3 really good WRs and a pair of good RBs in rounds 2/3/4, while picking up a ton of future ammunition.
   2082. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 09, 2018 at 08:55 PM (#5636318)
also, i feel like this tyrod taylor trade is a precursor to the bills acquiring nick foles.

that's a terrible idea, but the bills seem like the right combination of desperate, stupid and reckless to make that kind of mistake.
   2083. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 09, 2018 at 09:50 PM (#5636341)
looking at this year's draft:

the value in the top 50 is at WR, TE, G, C, LB and DB.
the value in the middle rounds is at RB, WR, DE and S.
the value in the late rounds is anyone's guess at this point.

i define value as likelihood of drafting a pro-bowler, relative to the expectations of a given draft slot. obviously nothing is guaranteed, and you can find good players at other positions, but i see a depth of high upside talent at those positions, in those draft slots.
   2084. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 09, 2018 at 10:03 PM (#5636349)
desperate, stupid and reckless

no way to go through life, son
   2085. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: March 10, 2018 at 08:29 AM (#5636393)
then they can draft QB darnold #1 (personally, i don't love any of the QBs this year so i'd rather have RB barkley, but new GMs tend to want franchise QBs) and spend the rest of the draft getting offensive playmakers, improving their depth at OL and DB and making a bunch of trades to turn their excess of current picks into an excess of future picks.

Screw that noise.

I don't think you can justify drafting a RB #1 in this day and age. They are huge injury risks, and even the great ones just don't matter that much.

There are 4 QBs all in spitting distance from each other. Take Chubb #1, and take your pick of the QBs left at 4 (likely 3, the Colts aren't taking one, unless somebody trades up for that pick).
   2086. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: March 10, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5636424)
The hilarious thing is that this of all years is a GREAT year to trade the #1 pick because someone is going to want Barkley badly enough to give up a king's ransom to move up, and the Browns can still get a QB at 4.* But the Browns' fans will burn the stadium to the ground if they trade out of #1 again.

* Although, for the record, I don't think there's a franchise QB in this year's class at all.
   2087. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: March 10, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5636428)
Yeah, if a deal is there to be made, I would much rather trade the 1 than the 4, if I was the Browns. Just sceptical that there will be a good enough deal there to justify it.
   2088. . . . . . . Posted: March 10, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5636431)
We’re talking about the Browns, right? A team that spent a first on Jabril Peppers, then played him at free safety, a position no more suited to his skills than a 3-4 DT?

They’ll draft Rosen and try to run RPO with him.
   2089. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 10, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5636452)
There are 4 QBs all in spitting distance from each other
which one's the odd man out? darnold? rosen? allen? jackson? mayfield?
I don't think you can justify drafting a RB #1 in this day and age. They are huge injury risks, and even the great ones just don't matter that much.
i know it's accepted fact that RBs have short careers, but with the shifts towards RB by committee, nickel as base defense and offenses passing more than ever, i think the career length for good RBs has gotten a lot longer in the last 5 years. it might take more time to show up in the data, though.

i also think pass catching RBs have a longer shelf life. personally, that's the way i'd use barkley if i was CLE. if you let him run a bunch of swing and wheel routes as a decoy to force defenses to cover sideline to sideline, tyrod taylor will shred opponents with his scrambling and deep passing.
   2090. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: March 10, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5636457)
which one's the odd man out? darnold? rosen? allen? jackson? mayfield?

I'm sorry Miss Jackson...
   2091. zenbitz Posted: March 12, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5636932)
Given the trade for Tyrod Tayor, it would not surprise me if the Browns trade down to pick Lamar Jackson. I think they will take Barkley, but not sure what picks they will need to use. 1st round RBs are *generally* a bad idea but the outliers are pretty solid value and they have 2 of the first 4 picks. It seems to fit with a run-heavy RPO offense.

Baker Mayfield might be another developmental option.


This http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/who-should-own-the-2018-nfl-draft graph of draft value is pretty hilarious.
   2092. zenbitz Posted: March 12, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5636933)
Big news on the WC is 49ers signing Richard Sherman for peanuts. Feeling around here is mixed but positive because the terms are very team favorable (maybe $5M guaranteed IF he makes the team). Apparently Talib turned down a trade to SF before RS was cut by Seattle.
   2093. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5636945)
the talent/blowhard balance on Sherman is not pretty, at this point.
   2094. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 12, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5636994)
the talent/blowhard balance on Sherman is not pretty, at this point.
i guess you think he should "shut up and dribble", right?
Given the trade for Tyrod Tayor, it would not surprise me if the Browns trade down to pick Lamar Jackson

that would surprise me. i think this dorsey guy is going to take barkley #1, and then trade up from #4 to #2 to take a QB.

trading down for jackson would be a better move for them, though. i like jackson a lot.

the best move for them, imo, would be to sign colin kaepernick and draft quinton flowers in the 5th round. go all-in on a no-huddle/spread/zone-read/RPO offense.
   2095. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5637005)
1st round RBs are *generally* a bad idea but the outliers are pretty solid value

the bust rate for 1st round RBs in the last 5 years is 0.

fournette, mccaffery, elliott, gurley, gordon were all good/great picks.

if you go back 10 years, even alot of busts (richardson, wells, mendenhall, spiller, mcfadden, moreno) gave you a season or two with 1000+ yards and 10+touchdowns.
   2096. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: March 12, 2018 at 06:44 PM (#5637114)
to add a bit more to it:
in the last 10 years, 52 RBs have had 1000 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in a season.
21 of 52 were drafted in the first round
6 were undrafted
10 were drafted in rounds 4-7
15 were drafted in rounds 2 and 3

there were 89 total seasons that matched the above criteria.
38 of 89 were by RBs drafted in the first round.
9 were by undrafted RBs.
13 were by RBs drafted in rounds 4-7
29 were by RBs drafted in rounds 2 and 3
   2097. zenbitz Posted: March 12, 2018 at 07:12 PM (#5637116)
I think the reason that you don't want to draft a RB in the 1st is that you don't need an offense that puts 1000/10 through a RB to go deep in the playoffs. Most teams these days aren't even really trying to run the ball even 45% of the time, and you only have so many passing yards to spread around.

But there is a not-insignificant difference between the top 1/2 of the first and the bottom half.


   2098. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 12, 2018 at 08:23 PM (#5637127)
As a 49er fan, I feel a bit weird having Sherman on the team considering the fact that he was one of the big faces of the 49er-Seahawks rivalry.

It'd be like the Steelers getting Ray Lewis.
   2099. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 12, 2018 at 08:28 PM (#5637129)
Also, this was excellent.
   2100. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5637147)
i guess you think he should "shut up and dribble", right?

wow, a complete misread AND a reply that belongs in an OTP thread. a daily double of sorts!
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