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Friday, February 15, 2019

OT - 2018-19 NBA thread (All-Star Weekend to Twelfth of Never edition)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  Kyler Murray and how the Galactic Empire did nothing wrong.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: February 15, 2019 at 12:14 PM | 1586 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, off-topic

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   901. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 25, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5825132)
Are we sure the Celtics aren't tanking for a 6/3 matchup with Philly?


Tricksy Ainge! We hates him! 17 preciouses when we only has 16!

   902. Booey Posted: March 25, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5825133)
So after last year reading on all the things Brogdon couldn't do pretty surreal to now read that the Bucks are pretty much ###### in the second round if Brogdon doesn't come back.


Conference Finals, maybe, but their 2nd round opponent is going to be Boston or Indiana, neither of whom looks like a world beater right now (IND's beatdown of Denver notwithstanding). A lot can change before then, of course.
   903. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5825149)
Are we sure the Celtics aren't tanking for a 6/3 matchup with Philly?

fun fact:
BRK and DET have the tiebreaker advantage over BOS.

less fun fact:
BOS and DET have 17 total games left; any combination of 4 BOS wins or DET losses would lock DET out of the 5 seed.
BOS and BRK have 16 total games left (including one head to head); any combination of 4 BOS wins or BRK losses would lock BRK out of the 5 seed.

a somehow even less fun fact:
BRK's remaining schedule includes 2 games vs. MIL, road games @ IND, PHI and POR, and home games vs. TOR, BOS and MIA, so that one's not happening.


DET has a comparatively easy run in to the playoffs, but even they have to deal with 2 games vs. IND, road trips to OKC and DEN, and home games vs. CHO, POR and ORL.


bonus fun fact:
IND has lost their last 8 road games.
   904. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5825150)
[901] Heh. I was joking, but I fully admit to grasping at straws at this point: following this Celtics season has been a strange and perplexing exercise, and I have no idea what to expect anymore.
   905. spivey Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:33 PM (#5825153)
The Bucks can absolutely make the Finals without Brogdon, it's just less likely. He's one of their starters, and can get his own shot, which you'll need against Toronto and Boston.
   906. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5825157)
following this Celtics season has been a strange and perplexing exercise, and I have no idea what to expect anymore.


Even as a Lakers fan, I still think Boston has a good team and will be a tough out for anybody in the East. The other question is what is actually up with Irving, and that one will be answered in July. My guess is that he stays in Boston, but he is a bit of an odd duck, to use one of my dad's favorite old-school expressions. So I don't think anyone knows right now.
   907. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5825162)
My Celtics bead, which has surely only been improved by my having been out of touch on vacation last week:

- They're a deep, good team which may or may not get its #### together for the playoffs. They've had rotating minor big man injuries that have made it clear how important Horford and Baynes are to the team's defensive success, but they've also just flat out struggled.

- It really seems like this offseason they will get two or more of AD/KD/Kyrie or they'll get none. I've come around on this, as I don't know that Kyrie is a guy who can really be your best guy. He's a wizard offensively and he has at times played good defense, but he's also done some sulking and consistently hurt the team by running his mouth publicly. I think things would be helped a lot by him being one of two alphas instead of the lone guy. (Horford, for all that he is in some ways the most important Celtic, seems to be a lead-by-example dude more than a loud voice.)

- The only thing this team has done consistently this season is dodge expectations. Therefore I'm quite confident they will either bomb out of the first round of the playoffs or coalesce and make a deep run, but I have zero idea which.
   908. Master of the Horse Posted: March 25, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5825167)
Why does Stevens get a total pass seemingly for this season? KI is constantly giving lectures in the media, Tatum and Brown don't seem to be advancing their games, the team is totally up and down and is anyone asking wtf coach? Just wondering
   909. PJ Martinez Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5825171)
Why does Stevens get a total pass seemingly for this season?
Has he? My sense is that his previously sky-high reputation has taken a hit. IIRC, even before the season, there was a prominent piece or blog post somewhere asking if he was really as good as everyone says he is. Now, depending on what happens in the playoffs and the offseason, there will presumably be post-mortems and people will attempt to apportion blame. He will probably end up having to try to earn back the "next Popovich" tag (again, depending on what happens in the playoffs and the offseason and the reporting in the various postmortems -- and of course he would never put it that way; I mean in the minds of fans and the commentariat).
It really seems like this offseason they will get two or more of AD/KD/Kyrie or they'll get none.
This is where I am, too, mostly because it seems like if the Celtics don't exchange some young guys (and draft picks) for another star Irving will want to leave.
   910. Master of the Horse Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5825172)
909--Have not seen any major pieces stating that Stevens is the one failing this season or similar. Do not claim to capture everyone online about the Celtics hence why I am asking.
   911. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5825175)
Why does Stevens get a total pass seemingly for this season?
People are, to some degree, asking "wtf Stevens" now, but he has gotten a very long rope. Part of it is that he's banked several years of what seems to be top-notch coaching, so he's got some trust to burn; part of it is that he's a very good communicator who understands how to deflect awkward media questions and protect his guys without being rude to reporters, which helps avoid negative press; part of it is that the players have never really publicly put any blame on coaching/scheme; part of it is that, besides second-guessing the rotation (####### start Jaylen Brown again, already!), the problem seems to be with how the players are reacting to situations. Both in the big-picture sense (adjusting to smaller, not larger, roles after a breakout playoff run; lots of guys with overlapping skillsets; the bumpy recovery and reintegration of Gradual Healthiness) and in the little-picture sense (fixing rotations in-game, not pressing when shots stop falling).

Mostly, though, it's hard to pin the blame for the Celtics woes on any individual person when no one even understands what exactly is going wrong.

(For what it's worth, my own armchair psychological diagnosis is similar to FTO's, and goes along with the same free agency prediction. The same deep-seated squirreliness that makes Kyrie such a handful to stay in front of in-game and which makes his sentences such logorrheic epics makes him a bad choice to be the primary leader for a team; and he'd be much better cast as option 1B or 2. Not sure it's worth much of anything though.)
   912. Master of the Horse Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5825176)
911: Thanks
   913. jmurph Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5825181)
I think the weirdest thing about the Celtics is it's hard to pinpoint what exactly is wrong, other than just overall inconsistency. They still look good in the advanced metrics (obviously some of this is double-counting, I'm just providing an overview):

- 7th in SRS, good for 3rd in the East
- 6th in NRtg (3rd in East)
- One of only 4 teams in the league in the top 10 in both ORtg (9th) and DRtg (7th) (Milwaukee, Denver, Toronto, Boston)
- 5th in Projected W-L (again, 3rd in the East); their actual record is 4 wins worse.

So they're underachieving, obviously, but how much is luck? How much is poorly timed injuries? How much is the overconfidence of a team that thinks it's better than it really is? Coasting for the playoffs? Chemistry? I have no idea! It's kind of maddening.

Anyway I'm going to pick them to lose to Indiana in the 1st round but then simultaneously be absolutely outraged if it actually happens.
   914. Master of the Horse Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5825185)
913--Totally valid. Get it. But doesn't that suggest that maybe there is a personnel mix issue and coaches these days are hired to really be people managers more so than tacticians, right?
   915. jmurph Posted: March 25, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5825190)
913--Totally valid. Get it. But doesn't that suggest that maybe there is a personnel mix issue and coaches these days are hired to really be people managers more so than tacticians, right?

Oh yeah, sure. My post was more of a tangent, not a direct answer to your question.
   916. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 25, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5825213)


Tricksy Ainge! We hates him! 17 preciouses when we only has 16!


Ahem. The LA Lakers only have 11.
   917. tshipman Posted: March 25, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5825243)
The simplest explanation is that people kinda overrated the Celtics coming into this season (see: Simmons, Bill), and that performance vs. expected wins/loss is mostly random.

Last two years, the Celtics overperformed, this year they underperformed. Neither the overperformance nor the underperformance is to Stevens' credit or fault.

I will note that the Celtics are really inconsistent in their season results (high MOV vs. bad teams, much worse results against good teams), but that is probably random, too.
   918. Moeball Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:14 PM (#5825250)
916 - maybe you were just being snarky, but the 5 Lakers' titles in Minneapolis actually count, bringing the franchise total to 16. You know, Minnesota, where they actually have lakes?
   919. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:23 PM (#5825255)
But how is the Celtics' defense against open 3PA this year?
   920. PJ Martinez Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:41 PM (#5825258)
But how is the Celtics' defense against open 3PA this year?
They're no. 7, just a hair below the the three teams that are tied at 4-5-6. I don't know if they have any chance to catch those teams. If they don't, I think this would be their first time out of the top 5 in 12 years.
   921. Tin Angel Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:42 PM (#5825259)
maybe you were just being snarky, but the 5 Lakers' titles in Minneapolis actually count, bringing the franchise total to 16.


I'd say 15 and give 2002 an asterisk?

   922. spivey Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:01 PM (#5825261)
I’ve been kind of hoping that Brooklyn falls to 8 because I consider them easily the weakest of teams that could end up there. Their schedule run-in is brutal and they could conceivably even miss the playoffs. More likely, 8th is very on the table.
   923. spivey Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:02 PM (#5825262)
Also I’ve been listening to the Dunc’d On podcast and it’s great. They also are quite prolific.
   924. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5825263)
They're no. 7, just a hair below the the three teams that are tied at 4-5-6. I don't know if they have any chance to catch those teams. If they don't, I think this would be their first time out of the top 5 in 12 years.


Gracias
   925. tshipman Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:56 PM (#5825264)
But how is the Celtics' defense against open 3PA this year?
They're no. 7, just a hair below the the three teams that are tied at 4-5-6. I don't know if they have any chance to catch those teams. If they don't, I think this would be their first time out of the top 5 in 12 years.


I know this is just bait, but PJ is answering a slightly different question.

The Celtics are 7th overall in 3p% against, but are actually 10th in opponent 3p% on wide open 3s at 37.1%.

Last year they were first.

I guess Brad Stevens really has performed worse this year.
   926. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 25, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5825266)

maybe you were just being snarky, but the 5 Lakers' titles in Minneapolis actually count, bringing the franchise total to 16.


Was being snarky, but I definitely am in the camp with those that believe those don't count.
   927. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 25, 2019 at 11:17 PM (#5825267)
I know this is just bait, but PJ is answering a slightly different question.

The Celtics are 7th overall in 3p% against, but are actually 10th in opponent 3p% on wide open 3s at 37.1%.

Last year they were first.

I guess Brad Stevens really has performed worse this year.


My question was like 40% snark and 60% genuine curiosity, so thanks.

Also Booker has made nearly everything tonight regardless of defense. Already up to 56 but Jazz are up over 20 (other Suns have 27 points).

EDIT: This seriously was the most ridiculous game of the season. Jazz fans gave Booker a standing ovation when it looked like he was going to the bench the rest of the game. Then BYU fans were cheering for Jimmer (who missed nearly everything) louder than for any Jazz player. Then at the end of the game the Jazz tried to prevent Booker from even getting the ball again so he couldn't get 60, including intentionally fouling another Suns player on the Suns' last possession.
   928. Booey Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:13 AM (#5825268)
Random Jazz stanning:

- Devin Booker sets a new all time opponent scoring record in SLC with 59 pts...but no other Sun scores in double figures so PHX loses by 33 anyway.

- With back to back wins of 30+ pts (CHI and PHX missing half their starters! Woo hoo!), the Jazz scoring differential jumps up to 4.9, second in the West (GSW) and 4th in the NBA (MIL, TOR).

- Gobert breaks Dwight Howard's NBA record for dunks in a season (they've only kept track of the stat since 2000, TBF), and now leads Giannis by 13 dunks with 8 games to go to establish the new high bar.

- Jazz jump back up to 5th in the West with OKC's loss and LAC idle (UTA has the tie-breaker over the Clips)
   929. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:24 AM (#5825269)
- Gobert breaks Dwight Howard's NBA record for dunks in a season (they've only kept track of the stat since 2000, TBF), and now leads Giannis by 13 dunks with 8 games to go to establish the new high bar.


Who actually owns this record is an interesting question.

Shaq?
Moses Malone?
Wilt?

Someone else?
   930. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:50 AM (#5825270)
Was being snarky, but I definitely am in the camp with those that believe those don't count.


17-16 apparently mattered a lot to Jerry Buss, but it has never mattered much to me. 5 of the Lakers' 16 titles came before the shot clock and in another city, and 13 of Boston's 17 came before the merger, and they won a few in leagues that had 8 or 9 teams, playing 72-game schedules. What matters to me is '85, '87, and '10.

That noted, I only get worked up about Boston stuff when both teams are good. The Lakers have been so bad the last six years that I don't think much about Boston.

I'd say 15 and give 2002 an asterisk?


This was litigated extensively back in the early days of this thread and in the OT hijacks that lead to its creation. Back then, there was a lot of Kobe stuff as well. The Lakers have not been good enough since 2012 to be a huge topic anymore.
   931. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:54 AM (#5825271)
Jusuf Nurkic just done ###### up his leg.
   932. Booey Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:01 AM (#5825272)
The Lakers have not been good enough since 2012 to be a huge topic anymore.


Sometimes I wish the MSM would realize this...
   933. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:03 AM (#5825273)
Tell that to the MSM.


Save that shitt for your segment on the BBTF NBA Thread Podcast.
   934. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:04 AM (#5825274)
Jusuf Nurkic just done ###### up his leg.


Well, I guess that's it for Portland's chances of making it out of the first round. No Nurkic, maybe no McCollum.

Also, that is one of the most gruesome basketball injuries I have seen. As bad as the Hayward.
   935. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:06 AM (#5825275)
I wonder at times how many injuries occur over the last 12-14 games of the schedule each year on average that affect playoff teams...
   936. Booey Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:10 AM (#5825276)
Ugh, Nurkic. That seriously sucks. Watch at your own risk...it's Gideon Hepzibah level horrifying...
   937. Tin Angel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:12 AM (#5825277)
Yeah. I really wish I wouldn't have watched that.
   938. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:13 AM (#5825278)
Also, that is one of the most gruesome basketball injuries I have seen. As bad as the Hayward.


Came back from walking my dog to see all of NBA twitter talking about it and was wondering if I wanted to watch it. That's a nope for me. Blazers really do just seem snake-bit with injuries.
   939. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:22 AM (#5825279)
Jusuf Nurkic just done ###### up his leg.
never heard a word of his broadcast.
   940. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:22 AM (#5825280)
I wonder at times how many injuries occur over the last 12-14 games of the schedule each year on average that affect playoff teams...
In 2013, Danilo Gallinari suffered his injury in Game 71. That was a fun Denver team, too.

I seem to remember the Barkley-era Suns once had a late-season injury derail them.
   941. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:22 AM (#5825281)
Not going to watch it. Terrible.
   942. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5825313)
I like the Dunc'd On podcast, and I like rankings, but I was listening to their Power Forward rankings earlier today and it's just a total mess. First of all, the entire exercise in ranking power forwards as a distinct category in the modern NBA is just ridiculous to me. I don't think there's a meaningful distinction of positions that would have Giannis and Anthony Davis and Kevin Love all in the same place.

They also spent a couple minutes at the top explaining why Ben Simmons is a power forward, but they're like 7 or 8 deep at this point and neither guy has ranked him yet. I mean, I also think Simmons has been wildly overrated but I'm pretty sure I'm taking him ahead of Kevin Love.
   943. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5825334)
I like Dunc'd On, but I do find their analysis pretty canned -- can this guy help team X beat the Warriors? is an interesting question, but it is hardly the only lens that responsible front offices should be using to evaluate talent. Also, the one guy talks over the other dude all the time and it makes me crazy.
   944. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5825335)
Good article from Zach Lowe on the Kings.
   945. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5825376)
Ugh, not going to watch the Nurkic video. This sucks not just for this year, but I'm guessing he's not 100% until 2020-21, if ever.
   946. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5825390)

Ugh, not going to watch the Nurkic video. This sucks not just for this year, but I'm guessing he's not 100% until 2020-21, if ever.


If its just his leg bones there shouldnt be any long term repercussions, Paul George is doing just fine. It's not a joint thing like Hayward.
   947. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5825419)
just his leg bones
   948. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5825421)
just his leg bones


Dont get me wrong - it was a terrible accident, and I am not going to watch the video, but long term it shouldn't impact him.
   949. Tin Angel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5825423)
and I am not going to watch the video, but long term it shouldn't impact him.


Doctor, how are you able to diagnose this without having examined the patient or even seen what actually happened to him?
   950. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5825437)
Dont get me wrong - it was a terrible accident, and I am not going to watch the video, but long term it shouldn't impact him.

Ha, yeah I was just highlighting the phrasing. If that ever happens to me (I also haven't watched the video), I will kill anyone who refers to my injury as "just his leg bones!"
   951. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5825456)
If that ever happens to me (I also haven't watched the video), I will kill anyone who refers to my injury as "just his leg bones!"


Good luck chasing them down.
   952. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5825458)
Nurkic will one day have fully intact leg bones. If you want that giant chasing you down, that's on you.

(I, on the other hand, am only normal people tall, and much weaker, so you don't need to worry about that.)
   953. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:37 PM (#5825465)
I'd be more afraid of Nurkic' dad, tbh:
Jusuf Nurkic's dad is a policeman in Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina. One day a Bosnian sports agent Enes Trnovcevic was reading a newspaper where he read: "Bosnian policeman, Hariz Nurkic has beaten 14 people in a fight." He knew what to do instantly! Next day he went to Tuzla and met with Nurkic's father. The only thing he asked him was: "Do you have a son?" Jusuf Nurkic was at that time a 14 years old boy and never trained basketball. Enes Trnovcevic took him to Slovenia and gave him an opportunity he accepted and used.


https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/1/14/7550151/nuggets-rookie-jusuf-nurkics-dad-is-a-7-400-pound-cop
   954. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5825466)
Kings: I know we talked about the Lowe as writer versus Lowe as analyst thing, but it strikes me as fairly shocking that he refers to the Harrison Barnes trade as anything other than a completely insane move (he does mention the contract is overpriced at one point, but his lead take is "didn't give up much for Harrison Barnes" -- you gave up $25M in cap space next year for a league average at best player!). I guess this is a team-friendly puff piece and it'd be out of place.
   955. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5825471)
Kings: I know we talked about the Lowe as writer versus Lowe as analyst thing, but it strikes me as fairly shocking that he refers to the Harrison Barnes trade as anything other than a completely insane move (he does mention the contract is overpriced at one point, but his lead take is "didn't give up much for Harrison Barnes" -- you gave up $25M in cap space next year for a league average at best player!

I noticed this when the deal went through, and not just with Lowe. There remains a gaping chasm between his reputation and his actual performance. I hear this from smart people all the time, people still seem to believe Barnes is a good player.

The idea of Barnes is good, the real world version, not so much.
   956. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 26, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5825480)
There's a brief aside in the article about how the Kings were talking about Otto Porter and pivoted from him to Barnes that I took to be as close to criticism of the move as Lowe was willing to get in that puff piece.
   957. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5825487)
They didn't give up much -- yet -- for Harrison Barnes, the tweener forward type Sacramento coveted.
I think the " -- yet -- " here is doing quite a lot of work, and thought so when I read it initially. In the context of this season, the asset price has a bigger impact than the cap space problems his contract presents down the line, and there will be plenty of time for second-guessing in the near future.
   958. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 26, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5825496)
FWIW, I also think Barnes' contract is an overpay which will probably come back to haunt Vlade and the Kings; I just get why "likely but hypothetical future problems of opportunity cost" didn't get much purchase in an article about why the Kings are clicking right now. Lowe used to balance that sort of competing concern in his articles better than he does these days.
   959. jmurph Posted: March 26, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5825510)
I like the Dunc'd On podcast, and I like rankings, but I was listening to their Power Forward rankings earlier today and it's just a total mess. First of all, the entire exercise in ranking power forwards as a distinct category in the modern NBA is just ridiculous to me. I don't think there's a meaningful distinction of positions that would have Giannis and Anthony Davis and Kevin Love all in the same place.

They also spent a couple minutes at the top explaining why Ben Simmons is a power forward, but they're like 7 or 8 deep at this point and neither guy has ranked him yet. I mean, I also think Simmons has been wildly overrated but I'm pretty sure I'm taking him ahead of Kevin Love.

Update on this, they both have Simmons at 9th in the power forward rankings.

EDIT: Also Duncan had Porzingis at like 4th, which is just indefensible in my mind. Also he's a center, just getting back to the original point about the weirdness of making this a separate position. He's a rim protector on defense.
   960. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:35 PM (#5825595)
FWIW, I also think Barnes' contract is an overpay which will probably come back to haunt Vlade and the Kings; I just get why "likely but hypothetical future problems of opportunity cost" didn't get much purchase in an article about why the Kings are clicking right now. Lowe used to balance that sort of competing concern in his articles better than he does these days.

noone worth having is going to take the kings money this summer.
I mean, I also think Simmons has been wildly overrated

he's 6'10 and he averages 8 assists per game.
-- what else does he do?
he shoots 57% from the floor.
-- what else does he do?
he's one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA
-- what else does he do?
he can also defend wings and bigs at an above average level.
-- what else does he do?
is that not enough?
-- hE CaN'T ShOoT AnD He tUrNs tHe bAlL OvEr sO He's oVeRrAtEd.
   961. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5825601)
I am fascinated by Ben Simmons, and look foward to seeing how his career plays out. He is like a preinjury Rondo with all the attribute sliders maxed. He is a great passer, defender, and rebounder. He's not only a bad shooter, he out-and-out refuses to shoot beyond a certain point. He's like you designed a player to answer the question of how good a point guard can be without any sort of jumpshot, which is a really bizarre and interesting player. He's good at all the things you say, but he's also a player that will allow a defense to play a lot of 5-on-4 in the halfcourt, which is a huge liability in the playoffs when a team has the prep time to really scheme against your weaknesses. I'm currently inclined to think there's a pretty hard ceiling on how useful Simmons can be if he never learns to shoot the three, but I'm also very excited to watch how the next decade of his career plays out, because there is a decent chance he'll prove me very wrong about that.
   962. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:14 PM (#5825604)
I mean, even Illiterate Wifebeater Jason Kidd eventually learned to shoot. A Simmons who could do that would be a unicorn; of course, that's not exactly news, and one would imagine that the player development people in Philadelphia have a pretty good handle on the problem. And yet, there is no sign he's getting any better.

I love flawed great players, much more so than robotic übermensch like Kawhi, so I'm rooting for Simmons.
   963. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5825611)
I am fascinated by Ben Simmons, and look foward to seeing how his career plays out. He is like a preinjury Rondo with all the attribute sliders maxed. He is a great passer, defender, and rebounder. He's not only a bad shooter, he out-and-out refuses to shoot beyond a certain point. He's like you designed a player to answer the question of how good a point guard can be without any sort of jumpshot, which is a really bizarre and interesting player. He's good at all the things you say, but he's also a player that will allow a defense to play a lot of 5-on-4 in the halfcourt, which is a huge liability in the playoffs when a team has the prep time to really scheme against your weaknesses. I'm currently inclined to think there's a pretty hard ceiling on how useful Simmons can be if he never learns to shoot the three, but I'm also very excited to watch how the next decade of his career plays out, because there is a decent chance he'll prove me very wrong about that.


I think that's overstated. Simmons has a good enough handle to be a primary ball handler. The ball handler not being able to shoot isn't really a liability because you still have to guard the ball.

I think the issue with Simmons is hard to disentangle from the issue with Brett Brown's offense. Is Simmons so scheme-able because he *can't* run PnR, or is Brown just so stubborn about not running PnR that it limits the team?

I actually think that the 76ers would be a great triangle team, since Embiid is such a good post player.
   964. PJ Martinez Posted: March 26, 2019 at 09:50 PM (#5825621)
I mean, even Illiterate Wifebeater Jason Kidd eventually learned to shoot.
Jason Kidd attempted more threes in his first five games in the NBA than Simmons has taken in his first two seasons.

When it comes to not shooting, it really is a whole new ball of wax with Simmons (who, by the way, I don't personally regard as overrated).
   965. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:04 PM (#5825623)
I think the issue with Simmons is hard to disentangle from the issue with Brett Brown's offense. Is Simmons so scheme-able because he *can't* run PnR, or is Brown just so stubborn about not running PnR that it limits the team?

i've brought this up before, but i think the main issue with the sixers' lack of pick and roll action is embiid. this is from draftexpress before the 2014 draft, so it's 5 years old at this point, but it's worth referencing in this context:
Kansas ran very little pick and roll, as Embiid averaged a mere .4 possessions per-game as the roll man last season, finishing ahead of only Sim Bhullar. He only scored .73 points per possession on those select few opportunities, which stands in contrast to how effective he was around the rim overall. While it is safe to assume sample size has something to do with Embiid's limited efficiency in the two man game, he has plenty of room to gain experience operating on the pick and roll given how infrequently he was involved in it in the Jayhawk offense relative to how big a part of the NBA basketball it has become.
also worth referencing, also from draft express, but prior to the 2016 draft:
In the half-court, Simmons is much more of a mixed bag. He saw some success operating with his back to the basket this season, but struggled when asked to act as a primary ball-handler and facilitator in pick and roll and isolation situations, partially due to LSU's very poor spacing.
...
Opponents were able to neutralize him very effectively in the half-court as the season moved on, simply backing five feet off him. Simmons would respond by getting very passive in turn, looking very conscious about firing up jumpers, even late in games when his team desperately needed him to be aggressive.

   966. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:24 PM (#5825624)
I actually think that the 76ers would be a great triangle team, since Embiid is such a good post player.
this is something else i've brought up before, especially once the sixers picked up jimmy butler to fill the jordan/kobe/melo/THJ role of high volume shot shooter.

there are a bunch of issues with it, though. for one, noone really coaches the triangle offense anymore, which means any coach the sixers would hire would have to be sight unseen. the triangle offense hasn't been tested in the post-handchecking, post-illegal defense NBA. the triangle offense also hasn't been tested in the post-positional revolution, post 3P-revolution NBA.


i tend to think that talented teams require an element of schematic innovation in order to become great. the heatles brought the amoeba defense; the warriors brought the small ball death squad; the spurs had the twin towers; the bulls had the triangle; the celtics had kevin mchale...err, i mean, the thibodeau zone; the lakers had shaq.

   967. spivey Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:28 PM (#5825625)
Pat Connaughton has really been good the last few weeks, which is key, because Tony Snell is not your savior!

Connaughton is averaging 7 rebounds/36, which is pretty nice coming from a guard spot. He plays both significantly more athletic and tougher than you'd expect. He has more dunks than Bledsoe and Middleton combined, fwiw.
   968. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:57 PM (#5825629)
the triangle offense hasn't been tested in the post-handchecking, post-illegal defense NBA. the triangle offense also hasn't been tested in the post-positional revolution, post 3P-revolution NBA.


Phil Jackson won back to back rings in the last 10 years, you know.
   969. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5825630)
He's good at all the things you say, but he's also a player that will allow a defense to play a lot of 5-on-4 in the halfcourt, which is a huge liability in the playoffs when a team has the prep time to really scheme against your weaknesses
i've come around on tj mcconnell over the years, but his skillset makes him an awful backup for ben simmons, and the sixers' inability to replace him at the deadline could be the difference between 2nd round exit and a 50/50 shot at GSW.

if the sixers could have gotten patrick beverley, that would have made a huge difference, but even someone like derrick rose or trey burke or jeremy lin could have stolen a playoff game, or even just made it more difficult for opponents to focus on ben simmons by having a skillset that doesn't exactly duplicate his (while being about 60% worse than him)
   970. PJ Martinez Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:05 PM (#5825631)
That Jeremy Lamb shot completely changed the East playoff race. Charlotte has a chance to win tie-breakers over Nets, Pistons, and Orlando. Last day of season: Heat @ Nets, Magic @ Hornets. Yowza.
I'm rooting for Charlotte now. It would be amazing if that crazy shot was the difference between them making the playoffs and not.
   971. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:12 PM (#5825632)
Phil Jackson won back to back rings in the last 10 years, you know.
not for long.

   972. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:13 PM (#5825633)
I'm sure it's possible, but it would seem really unlikely that someone with Embiid's shot, touch, size, and speed would not be an elite roll man in the NBA, even if he needs some more reps to get to that level.
   973. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:32 PM (#5825638)

Adrian Wojnarowski
‏Verified account @wojespn
2m2 minutes ago

ESPN sources with @malika_andrews: In another blow to the roster depth of the NBA’s best regular season team, Milwaukee Bucks guard Donte DiVincenzo will be lost for the rest of the season with bilateral heel bursitis in his left foot.
   974. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:43 AM (#5825645)
NOT WHITE DONTE NOOOOOOOOOO
   975. Thok Posted: March 27, 2019 at 07:11 AM (#5825653)
Who actually owns this record is an interesting question.


The "real" record for most dunks is probably Wilt during his 50 point season, but there's no way to verify it. I'm sort of surprised nobody's done an unofficial count of dunks during Jordan's 37 point season, since I could imagine TV footage for that season still existing.

The fact that a lot of stats weren't collected over NBA history is interesting. The next time somebody mentions that Hakeem is clearly the best defensive player of all time because he has the most blocks in NBA history, feel free to point out that Kareem would almost certainly have more if they actually counted blocks during his first four seasons, and that both Wilt and Bill Russell officially have 0 blocks for their careers. (There are people who have tried to estimate the number of blocks per game for Wilt and Russell from newspaper box scores, and they come up with something like 8 blocks per game for both of them; it's impossible to tell if those numbers are ridiculously inflated, or if Wilt and Russell were actually that ridiculously good even given that they played in an era with high pace and poor shooting.)
   976. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 27, 2019 at 07:58 AM (#5825656)
poor shooting


I was looking up Easy Ed Macauley’s career and saw that he led the NBA in FG PCT one year with a .452.
   977. spivey Posted: March 27, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5825678)
DiVincenzo being out is a bummer, though I am skeptical how much Bud was going to trust him in the playoffs anyways. Those very sparse minutes I think will mostly go to Sterling Brown, who I think is probably a little bit better than DiVincenzo at this moment in time.
   978. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: March 27, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5825683)
they played in an era with high pace and poor shooting.

I would dearly love to have block and steal data from 1955 onward. I think Russell and Wilt would be off the charts.* Once adjusted for context I suspect they would still be amazing but no longer otherworldly. With the '60s' pace and spacing and a lack of a 3-point shot, they probably played in the era most conducive to big block numbers. And man do I wish I could see those numbers.

*I also think that having block stats for his entire career would elevate Nate Thurmond from "Who?" to "Oh right, that guy. The proto-Mutumbo." in casuals' eyes. This is probably of less interest to everyone who is not me.
   979. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5825684)
I'm rooting for Charlotte now. It would be amazing if that crazy shot was the difference between them making the playoffs and not.

I generally root against teams that serially make terrible decisions but I love Kemba, he's great, I hope they pull it off.
   980. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5825731)
.
   981. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5825733)
“The Speed Of The Game” Podcast ‏@SpeedOfTheGame
It's showtime! The premiere episode of “The Speed Of The Game” podcast is here! Join @cavsdan with his very first guest, owner of @dallasmavs & @ABCSharkTank star @mcuban. Can you keep up with the Speed Of The Game? #SOTG

This is Dan Gilbert, interviewing Mark Cuban. I can't imagine a less appealing podcast idea.
   982. Rally Posted: March 27, 2019 at 01:25 PM (#5825739)
Phil Jackson won back to back rings in the last 10 years, you know.

not for long.


It especially seems like a long time ago considering the changes of the game. In 2009-2010 teams average 18.1 3PA per game. This year they are up to 31.9, and doing that without any loss of efficiency (3P% was .355, now .354).

An offense from just 10 years ago can't compete in today's NBA, just because 3 > 2.
   983. Rally Posted: March 27, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5825741)
I would dearly love to have block and steal data from 1955 onward. I think Russell and Wilt would be off the charts.* Once adjusted for context I suspect they would still be amazing but no longer otherworldly. With the '60s' pace and spacing and a lack of a 3-point shot, they probably played in the era most conducive to big block numbers. And man do I wish I could see those numbers.


I saw somewhere that for games where we can get block numbers (like those with a surviving full video record) Wilt averaged almost 10 blocks per game.

I see no reason not to think that Wilt and Bill's block records would look just as unattainable as their raw rebound totals. Everything broke their way to get those totals (quick pace of play, low shooting percentages, barely ever taking minutes off) and once adjusted for opportunity, Dennis Rodman's rebound numbers are more impressive. But those raw totals would be something to look at.
   984. Rob_Wood Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5825751)
I was looking up Easy Ed Macauley’s career and saw that he led the NBA in FG PCT one year with a .452.


Agreed. Also take a look at Paul Arizin who is in the Hall of Fame largely for being one of the era's first and greatest pure jump shooters. Led league one year at .448 and career fg pct of .421.

I don't mean to imply that these guys weren't great in their eras. They were. But fg pct was very low league-wide during all early NBA seasons.
   985. Jtsports01 Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5825776)
This was the best thing I could find on Wilt and Russell's blocks per game, 8.8 and 8.1

https://2kmtcentral.com/forums/thread/2435/there-are-112-nba-games-where-shot-block-data-of-wilt-chamberlain-exists-his-average-for-those-112-88-blocks-per-game

   986. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5825788)
This is Dan Gilbert, interviewing Mark Cuban. I can't imagine a less appealing podcast idea.


This week on the BBTF NBA Podcast: rr and Henry Abbott re-litigate Kobe Bryant's Legacy. 8 pm-10 pm Pacific.

I would probably need a small cash payoff upfront to be persuaded to listen to Gilbert interviewing Cuban...

   987. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5825792)
This week on the BBTF NBA Podcast: rr and Henry Abbott re-litigate Kobe Bryant's Legacy. 8 pm-10 pm Pacific.

Ha! The main issue with this is the late start time, I'm too old for that.
   988. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: March 27, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5825885)
Bulls aren't going to have any of their starting 5 for tonight's game (Carter, Markannen, Porter, LaVine, Dunn).

Chicago Bulls @chicagobulls 14m14 minutes ago

UPDATE: Last night, Lauri Markkanen experienced extreme fatigue during the first half of Chicago’s game in Toronto. Although he was stable, it was determined that further testing was warranted, and he would remain in Toronto overnight.


That's ####### ominous.
   989. tshipman Posted: March 27, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5825952)
It especially seems like a long time ago considering the changes of the game. In 2009-2010 teams average 18.1 3PA per game. This year they are up to 31.9, and doing that without any loss of efficiency (3P% was .355, now .354).

An offense from just 10 years ago can't compete in today's NBA, just because 3 > 2.


I think a lot of this is just overstated. The 2010 Suns had a 115.3 ORTG, which would place them ... second to the 2019 Warriors at 115.7. Despite taking 11 fewer 3s per game, the Suns were able to get a much higher percentage of offensive rebounds and free throws.

But we were talking about the Lakers. Their 108.8 ORTG (11th in the NBA in 2010) would be below average in current year (22nd). However, their 103.7 DRTG would put them as by far the best defensive team in the league.

Playing 4 or 5 out doesn't come without consequences. The biggest consequence is the lack of rebounding and rim protection. Popovich has certainly shown that you can make a 2 big alignment work, even with a lack of other supporting talent. This whole mantra from fans that you HAVE to play 4 or 5 out is kinda overblown, in my opinion.
   990. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: March 27, 2019 at 10:47 PM (#5825955)
UPDATE: Lauri Markkanen has been undergoing tests to determine the cause of an episode of a rapid heart rate & fatigue during the game in Toronto. Additional testing has been recommended and Markkanen will not return for the remainder of the season.

MORE: on.nba.com/2HXRMpB pic.twitter.com/jlOZ0Bg8wx
   991. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: March 27, 2019 at 11:17 PM (#5825959)
Sorry about Markkanen.
   992. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: March 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (#5825976)
   993. JC in DC Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5826054)
Yeah, lousy news about Markkanen.

I've always liked Kobe, and thought he handled this really well.
   994. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5826089)
Their 108.8 ORTG (11th in the NBA in 2010) would be below average in current year (22nd). However, their 103.7 DRTG would put them as by far the best defensive team in the league.

I don't think that's how the math works.

ETA: Those need to be adjusted for league context.
   995. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: March 28, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5826132)
bilateral heel bursitis in his left foot

That's a neat trick.
   996. PJ Martinez Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5826230)
Golden State Warriors big man Jordan Bell was not with the team on Wednesday night to assist in a win over the Grizzlies after being suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team. The Warriors announced the suspension in a very short press release but did not provide any further details - and coach Steve Kerr told reporters that the punishment was "our business."

According to The Athletic, Bell missed Wednesday's game after making a purchase at a hotel earlier in the week and charging the purchase to assistant coach Mike Brown.

Via The Athletic:

"Brown was alerted to the charge. He inquired about it. The staff at The Peabody hotel, where the team stayed, confirmed its purchase. So the Warriors launched a quick investigation and it became clear that Bell is the one who put it on Brown's bill. There was concern, sources say, that this wasn't the first time Bell has pulled this maneuver on some unknowing member of the organization.
   997. jmurph Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5826235)
Hmmmm, that just seems like a dumb prank?
   998. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5826248)
Here's an interesting one:

Primer RT:
Ian ‏ @IanDougherty
What if Devin Booker is highly-recruited Kevin Martin?


Per game stats for both players' fourth seasons:
Rk  Player     Season  Age  G  GS  MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P  3PA  3P%  2P  2PA  2P%  eFG%  FT  FTA  FT%  ORB  DRB  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF  PTS
1 Devin Booker 2018
-19 22   61 61 35.4 9.1 19.7 .462 2.1 6.5 .327 7.0 13.2 .529 .516  6.2  7.2 .863  0.6  3.6  4.2  6.7  0.9  0.2  4.1  3.2 26.5
2 Kevin Martin 2007
-08 24   61 57 36.3 6.8 15.0 .456 1.8 4.4 .402 5.1 10.6 .478 .515  8.2  9.5 .869  0.8  3.7  4.5  2.1  1.0  0.1  2.1  2.5 23.7 

(Stats from this link.)
BPM and VORP are very close for the two; WS likes Martin a lot more.
   999. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: March 28, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5826275)
No Pistons/Magic chatter ahead of tonight's huge game? Somehow didn't get switched to NBA TV?
   1000. jmurph Posted: March 28, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5826294)
Flip
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