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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3814 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1201. stevegamer Posted: June 19, 2018 at 03:10 AM (#5694970)
flip
   1202. Thok Posted: June 19, 2018 at 04:29 AM (#5694971)
At 45 the LA Clippers draft Grayson Allen, Duke. If any team can claim to be an expert at dealing with Duke guards who were hated coming out of college, it would be the Clippers, who have experience with both Reddick and Rivers the lesser. I know his skill set is somewhat redundant given Lou Williams; I'm sure the Clippers will figure out something.
   1203. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:13 AM (#5694980)
Allen can hit the open three and take cheap shots at opponents. He can’t do anything else, but I have to think a league that has room for Dellavedova has room for Allen.
   1204. Thok Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:45 AM (#5694984)
take cheap shots at opponents.


<off the record: hopefully nobody exposes me saying this>The Clippers need some way to deal with Curry and Harden.</off the record>
   1205. . . . . . . Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5694992)
Cool for me to do the Rockets?
   1206. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:33 AM (#5694996)
If this works for both Moses & Berg, I am good with it. Unsure if either of them are willing to give up the two-way contract guys, but figure I'd ask, since we have literally no backup PG right now.

I'll pass. A super future pick that probably never conveys isn't the best use of my cap space. I have no problem giving up the 2 way contract.
   1207. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:47 AM (#5695001)
Fair enough. Lamb is available to trade into an exception or cap space if anyone likes him.

i'm willing to swap meeks for lamb, but that'd only save you ~4MM.

Cool for me to do the Rockets?
go for it.
   1208. . . . . . . Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5695003)
Rockets have a bit of a tough call. It’s a weak draft and Jordan Bell isn’t walking through that door. Had Allen not just been taken, we would’ve taken him; not a great fit for needs but hes a plus plus athlete and fits with our team ethos.

With Allen gone, it’s a question of whether we want a player or a roster spot. I’m not in love with the remaining Eurostash players, since they all seem like their 80th percentile outcome is no better than someone already on the board. And the remaining two-way US types might be useful after a year in he G league but they’re old to be so raw. Nah, I’m going to select Moritz Wagner, F, Michigan. He’s a stiff and he’s unplayable against GSW, but he’s a true stretch-4 and if he shows something over the summer maybe it emboldens a mercy kill of Anderson.
   1209. JJ1986 Posted: June 19, 2018 at 09:17 AM (#5695019)
For the new page. The Lakers are on the clock.

FIRST ROUND
1. Magic (from PHO) - Athletic Supporter - Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid
2. Kings - smileyy - Deandre Ayton, F/C, Arizona
3. Hawks - Der-K - Jaren Jackson Jr., F/C, Michigan State (to DAL for #5)
4. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball - Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri
5. Hawks - Der-K (from DAL) - Mohamed Bamba - C, Texas
6. Suns (from ORL) - Oriole Tragic - Wendell Carter Jr., C, Duke
7. Bulls - Moses - Marvin Bagley III, F/C, Duke
8. Cavs - stevegamer - Mikal Bridges, F/G, Villanova
9. Knicks - NJ/JC - Trae Young, G, Oklahoma
10. 76ers - 57i66135 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Kentucky
11. Hornets - Berg - Lonnie Walker, G/F, Miami
12. Clippers - Thok - Robert Williams, C/F, Texas A&M
13. Suns (from LAC via CLE) - Oriole Tragic - Zhaire Smith, F/G, Texas Tech
14. Nuggets - Dandy - De'Anthony Melton, G, USC
15. Nuggets (from WAS) - Dandy - Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
16. Suns - Oriole Tragic - Collin Sexton, G, Alabama
17. Bucks - Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw - Kevin Knox, F, Kentucky
18. Spurs - SouthSideRyan - Elie Okobo, G, Pau-Orthez
19. Hawks - Der-K - Kevin Huerter, G/F, University of Maryland
20. Timberwolves - Mouse - Khyri Thomas, G, Creighton
21. Jazz - Booey/Cervo - Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Cedevita Zagreb
22. Bulls - Moses - Jacob Evans, G, University of Cincinnati
23. Pacers - Paste - Troy Brown Jr., SG/SF, Oregon
24. Trailblazers - mike f - Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State University
25. Nets (from LAL) - JJ1986 - Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
26. 76ers - 57i66135 - Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
27. Celtics - MHS - Mitchell Robinson, C, none
28. Warriors - sardonic - Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane University
29. Nets - JJ1986 - Kenrich Williams, F, TCU
30. Hawks - Der-K - Landry Shamet, PG Wichita State

SECOND ROUND
31. Magic - Athletic Supporter (from PHO) - Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
32. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball - Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
33. Hawks - Der-K (from DAL) - Jevon Carter, G, West Virginia
34. Hawks - Der-K - Shake Milton, SG/SF, SMU
35. Suns - Oriole Tragic (from ORL) - Keita Bates-Diop, F, THE Ohio State University
36. Knicks - NJ/JC - Omari Spellman, PF, Villanova
37. Kings - smileyy - Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy
38. Pistons - Crosseyed and Painless (from PHI) - Devonte Graham, PG, Kansas
39. 76ers - 57i66135 - Jarred Vanderbilt, SF, Kentucky
40. Nets - JJ1986 - Gary Clark, PF, Cincinnati
41. Magic - Athletic Supporter - Gary Trent Jr, SG/SF, Duke
42. Pistons - Crosseyed and Painless - Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV
43. Sixers (from DEN) - 57i66135 - Isaac Bonga, F, Germany
44. Wizards - Votto - Trevon Duval, PG, Duke
45. Clippers (from BRK) - Thok - Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
46. Rockets - ...... - Moritz Wagner, PF, Michigan
47. Lakers - Hombre/rr
48. Timberwolves - Mouse
49. Spurs - SouthSideRyan
50. Pacers - Paste
51. Pelicans
52. Jazz - Booey/Cervo
53. Thunder - Fridas Boss
54. Mavericks - tshipman
55. Hornets - Berg
56. 76ers - 57i66135
57. Thunder - Fridas Boss
58. Nuggets - Dandy
59. Magic - Athletic Supporter (from PHO)
60. 76ers - 57i66135

Trades:
ORL gets: #1 overall
PHO gets: #6 overall, ORL 2019-1 (unprotected)

LAC gets: Kevin Love
CLE gets: DeAndre Jordan, #13 overall

DET gets: Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless, #38
PHI gets: Andre Drummond (!)

DAL gets: Jaren Jackson Jr., Dennis Schroder, Miles Plumlee
ATL gets: #5 and #33 overall, Wesley Matthews

ORL gets: #31 and #59 overall, Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler
PHO gets: #35 overall, Bismack Biyombo, Terrence Ross

PHO gets: #13 overall, JR Smith
CLE gets: Marquese Chriss, Terrence Ross

DEN gets: #15 overall, Jodie Meeks
WAS gets: Trey Lyles, DEN 2019-1 (protected #1-4)

LAC gets: Jeremy Lin, #45
BRK gets: Luol Deng, Boban Marjanovic, #25, LAL 2019-1 top 20 protected else CHI 2019-2 and LAL 2023-2
LAL gets: Wesley Johnson

DEN gets: Langston Galloway
DET gets: Kenneth Faried

DEN gets: 2020 2nd round pick (PHI)
PHI gets: #43, Jodie Meeks
   1210. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5695129)
So the Bulls Athletic writer did a piece on the guys that could be picked by the Bulls and the unique twist was that the comps he gave had to be traits from former Bulls. So you get something like this for Trae Young:
Sister Jean’s faith that the ball is going in, Ben Gordon’s shooting stroke, Joakim Noah’s court vision, Doug McDermott’s defense.


I honestly don't think the Loyola thing was *that* big to keep throwing in those references, but here we are.

Wendell Carter:
Robin Lopez’ passing, Charles Oakley’s rebounding, Elton Brand’s rim protection, Pau Gasol’s 3-point shooting, Brad Miller’s footspeed.


Yeah, that last one is scary.
   1211. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5695140)
Still need a taker for the Pellies!
   1212. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5695162)
Washington's big need is frontcourt depth. I was eyeing Robert Williams, but since he didn't fall, was glad to add Trey Lyles as a rotation player. In the second round we aren't looking for any guarantees, so took a flyer on Duval, who was a highly-ranked HS player with great athleticism. Washington's backup PG in the playoffs was Ty Lawson, so there's room for improvement there.


Grayson Allen: was miscast as a lead guard, but can really slash and shoot (38% on 3s, 83% on free throws). Averaged 22/4.5/3.5 as a sophomore and likely would have been a first-rounder.
   1213. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5695173)
Also, the Orlando Magic are interested in moving pick 59. What we're looking for in return is a big with defensive potential, either a random young two-way guy or a eurostash who might come over or something like that. Obviously our standards are not very high here.
   1214. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5695180)
Yeah, that last one is scary.


Could be worse; could be Tom Thibodeau's footspeed.
   1215. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5695196)
Also, the Orlando Magic are interested in moving pick 59. What we're looking for in return is a big with defensive potential, either a random young two-way guy or a eurostash who might come over or something like that. Obviously our standards are not very high here.

It's kind of a shame the Bulls gave Felicio that contract, or else I'd suggest him here. Unless you think there's any potential left on Vonleh.

The Bulls roster isn't exactly pretty.
   1216. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5695200)
Could be worse; could be Tom Thibodeau's footspeed.

Or Jeff van Gundy's rim protection.
   1217. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5695204)
I'm looking to trade up for the current pick as long as the guy I like is still on the board. Offering #58 and the lesser of Denver's 2019 2nd rounder (56-60 protected) and Washington's 2019 2nd rounder. So it's most likely (i) #58 this year and (ii) a pick in the late 40s next year, in exchange for a pick in the late 40s this year.
   1218. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5695208)
Ricky O'Donnell @SBN_Ricky 5m5 minutes ago

Michael Porter Jr: compares *himself* to Kevin Durant and Giannis, then says it's an honor to be in the "same conversation" as them.

Meanwhile, he's ~actually~ getting compared to Keith Van Horn and Harrison Barnes

“Right now, I would say I’m a mix of Giannis and KD,” Porter said on The DA Show. “I like going to the hole a little more than KD does. I like bumping into people (and I’m) a little more physical than KD. But I like to shoot the ball a little more than Giannis. So that’s what I like to compare myself to – and also Tracy McGrady. I get compared to him a lot, and I like that one a lot, too. Those are three amazing players. It doesn’t feel bad to be in the same conversation as them.”
   1219. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5695264)
then says it's an honor to be in the "same conversation" as them.


aka "people are saying"...

   1220. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5695284)
“Right now, I would say I’m a mix of Giannis and KD,” Porter said on The DA Show. “I like going to the hole a little more than KD does. I like bumping into people (and I’m) a little more physical than KD. But I like to shoot the ball a little more than Giannis. So that’s what I like to compare myself to – and also Tracy McGrady. I get compared to him a lot, and I like that one a lot, too. Those are three amazing players. It doesn’t feel bad to be in the same conversation as them.”


Says the 19 year old with a bad back and who is cancelling workouts because of hip spasms. I think MPJ has a high upside and out here in the PNW I followed him pretty closely in HS (where he was quite impressive but it's still just HS), but if he goes off the board before #6 or #7 some team reached imo.

New rumor with the Kings is that Bagley is a lock for #2. Doncic continues to fall into the 4-6 range in the new mocks, and if he's there at #4 I'd love Pax to get on the phone and talk.
   1221. PJ Martinez Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5695313)
Doncic continues to fall into the 4-6 range in the new mocks, and if he's there at #4 I'd love Pax to get on the phone and talk.

Would you do Lopez and #7 for Parsons and #4 if Doncic is there? Trade Machine says that works, thanks to Chicago's cap room.
   1222. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5695343)
I've seen felicio suggested instead of Lopez and that's easier to take while swallowing Parsons deal.
   1223. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5695344)
Would you do Lopez and #7 for Parsons and #4 if Doncic is there? Trade Machine says that works, thanks to Chicago's cap room.


Yea I'd do it. It prolongs the rebuild by committing to another tank year, but long term it's a better outlook imo. And perhaps it would have added benefit of letting Lavine walk.

You'd have a pretty intriguing young roster and I don't think it forces a decision on Dunn right away, you can bring Luka off the bench and get him 25 minutes a game right away and still have Dunn as the starter. If Dunn stagnates well, you've got Luka anyways. If Dunn develops, well, that might mean he's improved his shot and can play off the ball at times as a ball hawking combo guard. I really love Dunn's defense I think he's one of the few perimeter guys in the league that can make an impact. Obviously he has work to do on the other side of the ball. But he showed enough last year that I'm willing to be patient and give him another half season or more to see where it's headed.
   1224. . . . . . . Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5695378)
Who says no (or who should say no?):

Atlanta: Luka Doncic (at 4th pick), John Collins, small matching salary
New York: Kristaps Porzingis, 9th pick
   1225. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5695379)
Doncic is going to be better, probably significantly so, than whoever it is the Bulls end up picking. I know losing Lopez would hurt, but I don't know about the overall quality of the team.

I also disagree with the idea that Doncic starts on the bench. You start Dunn/Doncic/Lavine and figure out what works and in what combo.

   1226. smileyy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5695383)
+1 for starting Doncic right away
   1227. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5695390)
I also disagree with the idea that Doncic starts on the bench. You start Dunn/Doncic/Lavine and figure out what works and in what combo.


I don't want Lavine around, honestly. At least not on anything more than a 2 year 30 million dollar deal.

Part of why I'd start Luka off the bench is I'd like to see him play about 5 minutes with Lauri in the 1st quarter as the primary ball handler. I don't think in a lineup with Dunn that would be the case.

I really want to see this happen now, ####. I'm so intrigued by Luka and Lauri PnP and how Dunn would fit in.

Who says no (or who should say no?):

Atlanta: Luka Doncic (at 4th pick), John Collins, small matching salary
New York: Kristaps Porzingis, 9th pick


Probably the IG thots the Zinger likes to bang. Atlanta? Not bad, but no NYC.
   1228. jmurph Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5695398)
Who says no (or who should say no?):

Atlanta: Luka Doncic (at 4th pick), John Collins, small matching salary
New York: Kristaps Porzingis, 9th pick

I think both would say no, but I prefer what Atlanta is giving up to what the Knicks are giving up.
   1229. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5695400)
I don't want Lavine around, honestly. At least not on anything more than a 2 year 30 million dollar deal.

I'm not going to disagree, but we both know he's signing a ridiculous deal. I like to tether my hypothetical fantasies with a dose of reality.
   1230. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5695405)
Doncic seems like clearly the best prospect in this class and it baffles me that if anything he's sliding as draft day approaches. What do the GMs know that we don't?
   1231. jmurph Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5695412)
but we both know he's (LaVine) signing a ridiculous deal.

Is he, definitely? Who has the cap space to force their hand?
   1232. aberg Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5695420)
New rumor with the Kings is that Bagley is a lock for #2.


Did anyone see that picture of Bagley standing next to Vlade in a gym and appearing to be 5-6" shorter than him? Combined with backing out of the combine measurement, that creates some serious concerns about his size.
   1233. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5695423)
Doncic seems like clearly the best prospect in this class and it baffles me that if anything he's sliding as draft day approaches. What do the GMs know that we don't?

I was always skeptical of him as a top ~3 pick not because he isn't worth it. But he's a white combo-guard, not quite wing height, maybe not a full on PG, without elite measurables or quickness, that played in Europe rather than NCAA (this should be a point in his favor, but it seems like it makes him more of an unknown commodity).
   1234. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5695434)
Doncic seems like clearly the best prospect in this class and it baffles me that if anything he's sliding as draft day approaches. What do the GMs know that we don't?

I would suspect that it's more risk aversion than anything else. Some GM is going to do very nicely for themselves if things continue like this.
   1235. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5695437)
Is he, definitely? Who has the cap space to force their hand?


There's been some pretty good breakdowns on this on the Bulls' RealGM forum and the short answer is nobody really. There's like 5 teams with the cap space and I believe only a couple of them would have any interest in him based on where they are in their win cycles. If Chicago has to match a RFA for him, this is probably an ideal summer to do it. I'd be ok with anything up to 3 years 60 million. Anything more than that length wise is committing too much imo.

How he's valued will be a great litmus test of the new analytics' reach into NBA FOs.

Did anyone see that picture of Bagley standing next to Vlade in a gym and appearing to be 5-6" shorter than him? Combined with backing out of the combine measurement, that creates some serious concerns about his size.


Yea he didn't appear very tall there.
   1236. PJ Martinez Posted: June 19, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5695448)
I was always skeptical of him as a top ~3 pick not because he isn't worth it. But he's a white combo-guard, not quite wing height, maybe not a full on PG, without elite measurables or quickness, that played in Europe rather than NCAA (this should be a point in his favor, but it seems like it makes him more of an unknown commodity).

He's usually listed at 6'8" and I haven't seen anything lower than 6'6". That's not wing height?

I tend to think of him as more of a point forward than a combo guard.
   1237. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5695455)
I tend to think of him as more of a point forward than a combo guard.


well he's going to be guarding power forwards most likely long term I'd guess. I don't think he has the footspeed to stay with NBA wings.
   1238. smileyy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5695472)
I don't think you can be risk averse with a high draft pick. Outside of an Anthony Davis, etc. (which I don't think Ayton is) if you draft to avoid downside, you're probably going to be missing upside. The more certainty you have around a guy in this draft, the more likely you are to end up with an All-Star rather than an All-NBA.
   1239. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5695474)
I don't think you can be risk averse with a high draft pick. Outside of an Anthony Davis, etc. (which I don't think Ayton is) if you draft to avoid downside, you're probably going to be missing upside. The more certainty you have around a guy in this draft, the more likely you are to end up with an All-Star rather than an All-NBA.


Agreed. If the choice for Chicago is MPJ or Mikal Bridges,it's MPJ all day long. It doesn't matter if four times out of 5 MJP busts. The one timeline he stays health and turns into a 25 ppg scorer makes the tank worth it. And if he busts, you roll the dice again next year. You gotta build from the superstars down in the NBA. You can find a guy like Bridges (solid starter type) afterwards.
   1240. aberg Posted: June 19, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5695503)
Agreed. If the choice for Chicago is MPJ or Mikal Bridges,it's MPJ all day long. It doesn't matter if four times out of 5 MJP busts. The one timeline he stays health and turns into a 25 ppg scorer makes the tank worth it. And if he busts, you roll the dice again next year. You gotta build from the superstars down in the NBA. You can find a guy like Bridges (solid starter type) afterwards.


I agree, but I also understand how a near-certain steady role player who can average 12 points and play defense would have appeal relative to someone who might not play next year, especially if my continued employment depended on the productivity of the pick. GMs don't usually get fired for winning 43 games.
   1241. . . . . . . Posted: June 19, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5695538)
FWIW, I totally disagree with the high upside concept. You can get a superstar through trade or FA as well. I think more efficient to build a team with the most wins while leaving max space open. If you can build a 41 win team around kids on rookie contracts, drop in an FA or two and all of a sudden you have a contender.
   1242. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 19, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5695550)

He's usually listed at 6'8" and I haven't seen anything lower than 6'6". That's not wing height?


6'6 is a bit short (I think?) but I think I was just mistaken. For whatever reason I thought he was more in the SG range of heights.
   1243. Booey Posted: June 19, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5695558)
You can get a superstar through trade or FA as well.

Many teams can't.

(Unless they're willing to give up all their assets for a rental)

I think more efficient to build a team with the most wins while leaving max space open. If you can build a 41 win team around kids on rookie contracts, drop in an FA or two and all of a sudden you have a contender.


Cap space only matters if you play somewhere that FA's are willing to go.

Edit: If you're talking about the Bulls specifically, then yeah, your plan makes sense.
   1244. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5695564)
well he's going to be guarding power forwards most likely long term I'd guess. I don't think he has the footspeed to stay with NBA wings.

I think that's taking the "lack of athleticism" thing a bit too far. From the little I've seen at least; I also can't recall reading that comment in anything I've seen on him.
   1245. aberg Posted: June 19, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5695568)
I think that's taking the "lack of athleticism" thing a bit too far. From the little I've seen at least; I also can't recall reading that comment in anything I've seen on him.


Guys manifest athleticism in different ways. From what I have seen of Doncic, it appears that he has outstanding body control, which allows his speed to play up. He bounces off guys and stays under control. He is extremely coordinated and never looks off-balance. It's hard to tell from video clips what his straight-line speed and vertical are like, but there are lots of perennial all-stars who are just good enough in those areas.
   1246. . . . . . . Posted: June 19, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5695623)
Cap space only matters if you play somewhere that FA's are willing to go.

Edit: If you're talking about the Bulls specifically, then yeah, your plan makes sense.


OK, sure. It doesn't work for Sacramento, Milwaukee, Minnesota, I guess. But most NBA cities are reasonably fine for an athlete to live for 8 months (or put differently, have enough girls to bang to keep a 20-something athlete occupied). I think that big stars generally would rather win in Boston or Philly than be mediocre in Miami or New York. I also assume that most big stars are on max contracts, and getting the super-duper big stars (i.e. the couple of guys on the long tail of the distribution curve) is mainly a matter of luck and not something you plan for. What you plan for is getting one or two guys who generate moderate surplus value over the max contract and you get those guys and leverage them into championships by surrounding them with less valuable guys whose 'margin' over their contract value is actually much better, but their absolute value much lower.

Let me put it differently: very few players are generating max-type value in their first few years in the league. And to get them, you basically need to pick up top AND in a draft class with an uberstar. So you can't beat the cap/tax by drafting superstars - you need to beat it by aggregating value over contracts with the complimentary pieces and then dropping a superstar in (or giving a max to an drafted player that you hit on, which is tantamount to same thing).

[Note: obviously you can hit on two or three drafted guys at once who grossly outperform their expected value, and just eat the tax to keep them all. But that is not something you plan for (unless you're running a Process to accumulate so many picks that it becomes probable), any more than I am planning to fund retirement with my lottery winnings.]
   1247. smileyy Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5695625)
Germane to the discussion of upside/talent certainty: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/6/19/17479658/nba-draft-vernon-will-not-fail
   1248. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:24 PM (#5695636)
so in the last week:
michael porter pulled out of workouts
claimed back, then hip, injuries
still hasn't released medical information to teams
has become the likely #2 overall pick.
   1249. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:30 PM (#5695641)
has become the likely #2 overall pick.


that rumor has now been supplanted by "Bagley is a lock at #2" for Sactown. I can't really think of a recent draft where the top half of the lotto still looks so uncertain in the final 48 hours leading up to the draft. I do believe that Ayton is a lock at #1 but beyond that no clue.

That article you linked smileyy seemed kinda dumb imo. The guy lectures us about judging guys before they play a game in the NBA then goes on to...mostly quote the coaches the guys played for to predict their NBA success? Has a college coach EVER badmouthed a potential 1st rounder on the record? That's self defeating for his program.

And that Villanova team is the best college team that guy has ever seen? He must be pretty young.
   1250. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5695647)
I love clickbait headlines. Six of those nine dudes are going to fail. And no one really knows which six.
   1251. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 19, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5695651)
here's another good draft link:

some guy's top 100 list.

his take on the sixers' draft class:
15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander is an amazing ball-handler for his size, and his natural body control and craft are special traits. He applies his length functionally on defense and should be a multi-positional impact defender in time as his frame adds bulk, and he has shown a propensity for making plays off the ball with his length. His basketball IQ pops mainly through his quick reactions on both ends but also in his ability to pass over the top and find shooters consistently on kick outs and skips. Gilgeous-Alexander’s other signature skill is his natural deceleration, as he really pops in terms of being able to stop on a dime instantly. Despite those outlier positives, SGA also lacks confidence in his jump shot, isn’t a natural pull-up shooter, gets bullied due to his lack of strength, doesn’t have an explosive first step, makes questionable defensive rotations, and may struggle to add value without the ball in his hands. His renowned work ethic is a big plus for projecting his growth in many of those areas, but I’m not sure he ever really becomes more than a low-to-mid tier starting point guard simply due to his lack of explosive athleticism or dynamic shooting. Still, he is a very good basketball player with a high floor as a rotation guy thanks to his size/dribbling/passing combination.
38. Donte DiVincenzo
DiVincenzo brings an attractive package of offensive skills thanks to his ability to pull up out to NBA range, play both on and off the ball, and create for others in a pinch. He’s got the athleticism to pull out some impressive dunks every once in a while, but he doesn’t consistently display that pop as part of his game. Like any Villanova player, he can dribble, pass, and shoot, showcasing excellent vision especially in drive-and-kick situations. DiVincenzo is an inconsistent defender, able to apply on-ball pressure in spurts but falling back to bad habits far too often as he’s wont to jump at closeouts on the perimeter or fall asleep off the ball. As is the case on offense, DiVincenzo doesn’t consistently apply his athleticism to the defensive end of the court, which leaves him little margin for error given his average dimensions (6-foot-4.5 in shoes, 6-foot-6 wingspan). His free throw shooting (career 70.5 percent from the line) is concerning for a player who will heavily rely on his jump shot, but the form and shot diversity are encouraging. At his ceiling, DiVincenzo’s shot creation could make him a valuable sixth man.
29. Jarred Vanderbilt
Of all the guys in this draft, Vanderbilt may have the most polarized strengths and weaknesses in his profile. On one hand, he’s an elite rebounder with an insatiable motor and excellent athleticism at 6-foot-9. He’s also incredibly coordinated with anticipatory passing vision, particularly as a short-roll playmaker. Vanderbilt has some traits that would make him a devastating small-ball 5. However, he also has terrible natural touch, little semblance of a jump shot, and a very scary history of foot injuries, with three separate injuries to his left foot alone. There are plenty of scenarios where Vanderbilt is out of the league within two or three years. On the other hand, his upside as a mismatch small-ball 5 is very real, and with a clean health slate, I’d have Vanderbilt as a top-20 prospect. It’s not easy to find guys with his intersection of size, athleticism, motor, and playmaking ability. His range of outcomes may be the widest in the entire class.
40. Isaac Bonga
The youngest player in the draft, Bonga has a very interesting foundational skillset built upon some point guard-like abilities at 6-foot-8. He’s a plus ball-handler for his size with the length to pass over the top of defenses and throw excellent wrap-arounds and bounce passes. He’s also gotten significantly quicker over the last year, which allows him to break down defenses more quickly and do a better job of sliding his feet on the perimeter. That said, he’s still quite slow for a perimeter player, especially as a jump shooter. His free-throw percentage has skyrocketed, a very positive sign, and his mechanics have improved, but his shot is still quite laborious and not conducive to getting off quickly in a game setting. Bonga also lacks strength and balance, which hurts him on both ends because he’s easier to knock around on drives and less of a threat defending on the ball. He has time to improve his strength, athleticism, and skillset, but he’s going to need to do those things to stick around in the NBA, as he’s simply too limited at this stage to play much of a role.


   1252. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:09 PM (#5695661)
DiVincenzo brings an attractive package of offensive skills thanks to his ability to pull up out to NBA range, play both on and off the ball, and create for others in a pinch. He’s got the athleticism to pull out some impressive dunks every once in a while, but he doesn’t consistently display that pop as part of his game. Like any Villanova player, he can dribble, pass, and shoot, showcasing excellent vision especially in drive-and-kick situations. DiVincenzo is an inconsistent defender, able to apply on-ball pressure in spurts but falling back to bad habits far too often as he’s wont to jump at closeouts on the perimeter or fall asleep off the ball. As is the case on offense, DiVincenzo doesn’t consistently apply his athleticism to the defensive end of the court, which leaves him little margin for error given his average dimensions (6-foot-4.5 in shoes, 6-foot-6 wingspan). His free throw shooting (career 70.5 percent from the line) is concerning for a player who will heavily rely on his jump shot, but the form and shot diversity are encouraging. At his ceiling, DiVincenzo’s shot creation could make him a valuable sixth man.


That's about as good of a scouting report as I've seen on him, well rounded, not overly glowing (like a couple I've read) based on one game against a team mostly using Mo Wanger as their "rim protector". I think his mediocre size is going to hurt him in the league. He's going to have a small margin for error at times, as the report noted.
   1253. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 19, 2018 at 08:52 PM (#5695702)
Germane to the discussion of upside/talent certainty: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/6/19/17479658/nba-draft-vernon-will-not-fail


I'm pretty sports radio-adverse these days but for whatever reason I enjoy Vernon's schtick.
   1254. Chicago Joe Posted: June 19, 2018 at 09:58 PM (#5695755)
I can be the Pellies.
   1255. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 19, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5695782)
here's another good draft link:

some guy's top 100 list

This is clearly the best list, as it completely vindicates my draft strategy.
12. De’Anthony Melton
Melton’s physical tools in conjunction with his generational reaction and recognition off the ball on defense make him one of the most unique prospects in the class. He’s got prototypical point guard size and would be slightly undersized at the 2 in the NBA, but with the way he guards he should be able to cover both positions and maybe even others well... Without tape from the last year, we don’t know how he’s improved [as an outside shooter], but I’m comfortable betting on skill development with a guy who’s pretty much all the way there in the IQ department and gifted with ideal tools for his position. I legitimately considered moving Melton up into tier 3, but he’s too limited offensively for me to make that leap with him. I can understand arguments for having him ahead of a guy like Zhaire Smith, but his offensive game isn’t quite developed enough to compensate for the athletic difference between the two, even though Melton is clearly more cerebral on both ends.

5. Miles Bridges
I believe that Bridges is a day one starter at the next level who could turn into one of the 30 best players in the league. After seeing the way that Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and other young wings have succeeded early on thanks to their ability to dribble, pass, and shoot while having the size to defend multiple positions on defense, it’s very difficult not to buy into Bridges as a prospect. He’s an excellent athlete who can play with or without the ball on offense and switch pretty much anything on the other end. His only real flaw is his lackadaisical off-ball defense, which I think can improve with coaching given his plus vision on offense... I think it’s distinctly possible that he turns into one of the best complementary pieces in the league. He has some realistic downside scenarios if his shooting improvement this year was a mirage, but I’ll buy into his intersection of volume, shot diversity, and free throw shooting as an indicator of real growth.
   1256. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:09 PM (#5695812)
I like Miles Bridges a lot. But you'd be insane to take him at #5 given that one of Luka, Bagley, JJJ, Bamba or Young is all but guaranteed to be there. He killed his stock coming back (Tom Izzo, what is up dude...) and not developing much but there is no doubt that athletically and physically he's a potential impact player. He's the sort of talent that Izzo just does not know how to utilize. At 'Nova or Michigan, IMO, he'd be an easy lotto pick, mid or late lotto, but lotto.

He's mostly being mocked around 15-22, no? If he's on the board late, Garpax, get on that phone!
   1257. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:18 PM (#5695824)
Great, Chicago Joe. The Lakers Braintrust (Hombre and RR) is still on the clock at #47.

FIRST ROUND
1. Magic (from PHO) - Athletic Supporter - Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid
2. Kings - smileyy - Deandre Ayton, F/C, Arizona
3. Hawks - Der-K - Jaren Jackson Jr., F/C, Michigan State (to DAL for #5)
4. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball - Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri
5. Hawks - Der-K (from DAL) - Mohamed Bamba - C, Texas
6. Suns (from ORL) - Oriole Tragic - Wendell Carter Jr., C, Duke
7. Bulls - Moses - Marvin Bagley III, F/C, Duke
8. Cavs - stevegamer - Mikal Bridges, F/G, Villanova
9. Knicks - NJ/JC - Trae Young, G, Oklahoma
10. 76ers - 57i66135 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Kentucky
11. Hornets - Berg - Lonnie Walker, G/F, Miami
12. Clippers - Thok - Robert Williams, C/F, Texas A&M
13. Suns (from LAC via CLE) - Oriole Tragic - Zhaire Smith, F/G, Texas Tech
14. Nuggets - Dandy - De'Anthony Melton, G, USC
15. Nuggets (from WAS) - Dandy - Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
16. Suns - Oriole Tragic - Collin Sexton, G, Alabama
17. Bucks - Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw - Kevin Knox, F, Kentucky
18. Spurs - SouthSideRyan - Elie Okobo, G, Pau-Orthez
19. Hawks - Der-K - Kevin Huerter, G/F, University of Maryland
20. Timberwolves - Mouse - Khyri Thomas, G, Creighton
21. Jazz - Booey/Cervo - Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Cedevita Zagreb
22. Bulls - Moses - Jacob Evans, G, University of Cincinnati
23. Pacers - Paste - Troy Brown Jr., SG/SF, Oregon
24. Trailblazers - mike f - Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State University
25. Nets (from LAL) - JJ1986 - Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
26. 76ers - 57i66135 - Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
27. Celtics - MHS - Mitchell Robinson, C, none
28. Warriors - sardonic - Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane University
29. Nets - JJ1986 - Kenrich Williams, F, TCU
30. Hawks - Der-K - Landry Shamet, PG Wichita State

SECOND ROUND
31. Magic - Athletic Supporter (from PHO) - Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
32. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball - Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
33. Hawks - Der-K (from DAL) - Jevon Carter, G, West Virginia
34. Hawks - Der-K - Shake Milton, SG/SF, SMU
35. Suns - Oriole Tragic (from ORL) - Keita Bates-Diop, F, THE Ohio State University
36. Knicks - NJ/JC - Omari Spellman, PF, Villanova
37. Kings - smileyy - Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy
38. Pistons - Crosseyed and Painless (from PHI) - Devonte Graham, PG, Kansas
39. 76ers - 57i66135 - Jarred Vanderbilt, SF, Kentucky
40. Nets - JJ1986 - Gary Clark, PF, Cincinnati
41. Magic - Athletic Supporter - Gary Trent Jr, SG/SF, Duke
42. Pistons - Crosseyed and Painless - Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV
43. Sixers (from DEN) - 57i66135 - Isaac Bonga, F, Germany
44. Wizards - Votto - Trevon Duval, PG, Duke
45. Clippers (from BRK) - Thok - Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
46. Rockets - ...... - Moritz Wagner, PF, Michigan
47. Lakers - Hombre/rr
48. Timberwolves - Mouse
49. Spurs - SouthSideRyan
50. Pacers - Paste
51. Pelicans - Chicago Joe
52. Jazz - Booey/Cervo
53. Thunder - Fridas Boss
54. Mavericks - tshipman
55. Hornets - Berg
56. 76ers - 57i66135
57. Thunder - Fridas Boss
58. Nuggets - Dandy
59. Magic - Athletic Supporter (from PHO)
60. 76ers - 57i66135

Trades:
ORL gets: #1 overall
PHO gets: #6 overall, ORL 2019-1 (unprotected)

LAC gets: Kevin Love
CLE gets: DeAndre Jordan, #13 overall

DET gets: Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless, #38
PHI gets: Andre Drummond (!)

DAL gets: Jaren Jackson Jr., Dennis Schroder, Miles Plumlee
ATL gets: #5 and #33 overall, Wesley Matthews

ORL gets: #31 and #59 overall, Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler
PHO gets: #35 overall, Bismack Biyombo, Terrence Ross

PHO gets: #13 overall, JR Smith
CLE gets: Marquese Chriss, Terrence Ross

DEN gets: #15 overall, Jodie Meeks
WAS gets: Trey Lyles, DEN 2019-1 (protected #1-4)

LAC gets: Jeremy Lin, #45
BRK gets: Luol Deng, Boban Marjanovic, #25, LAL 2019-1 top 20 protected else CHI 2019-2 and LAL 2023-2
LAL gets: Wesley Johnson

DEN gets: Langston Galloway
DET gets: Kenneth Faried

DEN gets: 2020 2nd round pick (PHI)
PHI gets: #43, Jodie Meeks
   1258. stevegamer Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5695835)
Also, the Orlando Magic are interested in moving pick 59. What we're looking for in return is a big with defensive potential, either a random young two-way guy or a eurostash who might come over or something like that. Obviously our standards are not very high here.

How about C Arturas Gudaitis for the #59?
   1259. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:35 PM (#5695839)
How about C Arturas Gudaitis for the #59?


Sure, what the hell. I don't think there's anyone I'm likely to want at 59 and maybe we can get him over here in '19 or '20.
   1260. PJ Martinez Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5695845)
Leonard wants a trade to Los Angeles, preferably the Lakers over the Clippers, league sources said. He has privately maintained that he no longer wants to play in San Antonio, and will eventually alert rival teams considering trades for him that his intentions are to sign in Los Angeles -- preferably with the Lakers -- when he can become a free agent in 2019, league sources said.
   1261. stevegamer Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:42 PM (#5695848)
How about C Arturas Gudaitis for the #59?

Sure, what the hell. I don't think there's anyone I'm likely to want at 59 and maybe we can get him over here in '19 or '20.


Sounds good. More Fake Cavs drafting to come!

CLE -> ORL:
Draft rights to Arturas Gudaitis

ORL -> CLE:
#59 overall pick.
   1262. tshipman Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:47 PM (#5695853)
I like Miles Bridges a lot. But you'd be insane to take him at #5 given that one of Luka, Bagley, JJJ, Bamba or Young is all but guaranteed to be there. He killed his stock coming back (Tom Izzo, what is up dude...) and not developing much but there is no doubt that athletically and physically he's a potential impact player. He's the sort of talent that Izzo just does not know how to utilize. At 'Nova or Michigan, IMO, he'd be an easy lotto pick, mid or late lotto, but lotto.


The list has Doncic, JJJ and Young all ahead of Miles Bridges (the other guy is Wendell Carter, Jr.).

I think that guys like Bagley and Ayton are being super overrated by a lot of people. Like, with Bagley, even if he achieves his upside, is that even worthwhile?

Let's dramatically overrate these guys. If Bagley or Ayton's 50th percentile outcome was Amar'e Stoudemire, I seriously question whether that is worth picking them in the top 5. Was peak Amar'e Stoudemire good enough to have played heavy minutes in the conference finals this last year? I'm not sure. And, of course, Amar'e is something like the 90th percentile outcome for them.

The ringer says that Tobias Harris is a comp for Miles Bridges. I think Tobias Harris would have played on every team in the conference finals. Tobias Harris is not that good! But he still would have been more valuable than an offense-only big without range.
   1263. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:49 PM (#5695854)
That's about as good of a scouting report as I've seen on him, well rounded, not overly glowing (like a couple I've read) based on one game against a team mostly using Mo Wanger as their "rim protector". I think his mediocre size is going to hurt him in the league. He's going to have a small margin for error at times, as the report noted.

divincenzo has a real and credible path to stardom. he's a 3 level scorer, he can create shots for himself and for his teammates off the dribble, he's tough, he's athletic, he rebounds, and while he's not going to be a defensive stopper, he can hold his own against non-elite opponents at multiple positions.

i'm not a huge fan of divincenzo myself, but i think people who underestimate his upside are repeating the mistakes that were made last year with jayson tatum.
   1264. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 19, 2018 at 11:50 PM (#5695856)
At 'Nova or Michigan, IMO, he'd be an easy lotto pick, mid or late lotto, but lotto.

This is not a knock on those programs but do you know how many lottery picks they have in the last say 10 years? 2. Combined. Nick stauskus and Trey Burke. (Guy before that is randy foye, then Jamal Crawford).

I wouldn't go to any of those 3 schools if my goal was to be a high pick.
   1265. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5695861)
I wouldn't go to any of those 3 schools if my goal was to be a high pick.


There's a pretty big sample bias there. Michigan and Nova have improved the draft stock of their guys relative to their recruiting stock more than most.

The list has Doncic, JJJ and Young all ahead of Miles Bridges (the other guy is Wendell Carter, Jr.).

I think that guys like Bagley and Ayton are being super overrated by a lot of people. Like, with Bagley, even if he achieves his upside, is that even worthwhile?

Let's dramatically overrate these guys. If Bagley or Ayton's 50th percentile outcome was Amar'e Stoudemire, I seriously question whether that is worth picking them in the top 5. Was peak Amar'e Stoudemire good enough to have played heavy minutes in the conference finals this last year? I'm not sure. And, of course, Amar'e is something like the 90th percentile outcome for them.

The ringer says that Tobias Harris is a comp for Miles Bridges. I think Tobias Harris would have played on every team in the conference finals. Tobias Harris is not that good! But he still would have been more valuable than an offense-only big without range.


This draft is just fascinating? There are an incredible amount of prospects that for various reasons people (scouts, fans, analytics, GMs) have seemingly quite divergent opinions on. I am inclined to agree with you about Ayton. But, if you're sitting #1 and you don't take him, I dunno. Tough decision. Miles Bridges doesn't ####### remind me AT ALL of Tobias Harris. We'll see.

divincenzo has a real and credible path to stardom. he's a 3 level scorer, he can create shots for himself and for his teammates off the dribble, he's tough, he's athletic, he rebounds, and while he's not going to be a defensive stopper, he can hold his own against non-elite opponents at multiple positions.


I think that's a path to being a really awesome 6th man on a title contender or a decent starter on a playoff contender, at best. Worth a 1st rounder, but not a reach.
   1266. tshipman Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:15 AM (#5695865)
This draft is just fascinating? There are an incredible amount of prospects that for various reasons people (scouts, fans, analytics, GMs) have seemingly quite divergent opinions on.


I think it's so interesting because there are kind of different interpretive communities for what's happening in the NBA.

"Stats" community (huge oversimplification):
The NBA game is changing, and big men are dramatically less valuable than they used to be. We want guards and wings, and bigs are only worth taking late in the draft because their value has degraded so badly.

"Scouts" community (huge oversimplification):
Talent is talent. Great scoring bigs will force the game to adapt to them. This domination of guards is a blip.

Only one of these groups is right! It seems likely to me that in 5 years' time, one of these views will be demonstrably right, and this draft will be a big inflection point in how teams start to change how they value players.
   1267. stevegamer Posted: June 20, 2018 at 04:44 AM (#5695887)
Only one of these groups is right! It seems likely to me that in 5 years' time, one of these views will be demonstrably right, and this draft will be a big inflection point in how teams start to change how they value players.


Actually, neither could be right. We could see something in the middle, and everyone will still be looking for which answer is right, when the answer is neither extreme.
   1268. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5695942)
rumor!
BKN and CHA are likely to swap Dwight Howard and Tim Mozgov, per Woj.
EDIT: nets also send 2 2nds and cash
   1269. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5695945)
This draft is just fascinating? There are an incredible amount of prospects that for various reasons people (scouts, fans, analytics, GMs) have seemingly quite divergent opinions on. I am inclined to agree with you about Ayton. But, if you're sitting #1 and you don't take him, I dunno. Tough decision. Miles Bridges doesn't ####### remind me AT ALL of Tobias Harris. We'll see.

this draft is lacking a 3rd tier of center prospects. most drafts have a mix of productive upperclassmen, projectable underclassmen and stashable euros, but this draft is below average in all 3 areas once you get past ayton/jackson/bagley/carter/bamba/williams/robinson.

Only one of these groups is right! It seems likely to me that in 5 years' time, one of these views will be demonstrably right, and this draft will be a big inflection point in how teams start to change how they value players.
wasn't the inflection point was supposed to be jahlil okafor?

going by the definition of inflection point (the moment where the rate of change goes from increasing to decreasing (or vice versa)), that flip probably happened with hasheem thabeet. after thabeet, you started to see highly rated bigs like demarcus cousins and andre drummond drop behind GJGE upperclassmen like thomas robinson and wesley johnson. nerlens dropped to 6, embiid and okafor dropped to 3.


at this point, i think the only way the NBA will go back is by changing the rules (getting rid of offensive fouls in the post) or if something insane happens (like the sixers trading for andre drummond and then demolishing everyone in front of them on the way to a title).
   1270. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5695946)
There's a pretty big sample bias there. Michigan and Nova have improved the draft stock of their guys relative to their recruiting stock more than most.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you, but that's something completely different than what I first responded to. But I'd be curious to see the evidence for this one too.
   1271. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5695951)
BKN and CHA are likely to swap Dwight Howard and Tim Mozgov, per Woj.
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 7m7 minutes ago

Charlotte is finalizing a deal to send Dwight Howard to the Brooklyn Nets for Timofey Mozgov, league sources tell ESPN. Nets will save $17M on deal in 2019-20 season, allowing them to create two max salary slots.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 2m2 minutes ago

Deal includes Nets sending two future second-round picks and cash to Charlotte for Howard, who has a $23.8M expiring contract.


Dwight is now just an expiring contract!
   1272. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5695958)
rumor!
BKN and CHA are likely to swap Dwight Howard and Tim Mozgov, per Woj.
cup check!!

i love the way brooklyn is being run. i hope they blow their team up and go in the tank now that they have their own draft picks.
   1273. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 20, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5695966)
Zach Lowe @ZachLowe_NBA 8m8 minutes ago

Unless I'm missing something, Charlotte took on an extra year of Moz salary (19-20) and two seconds to maybe make sure they duck the tax in 18-19? (Nets have a bunch of extra 2nds). Absolutely brutal. Great deal for the Nets.

Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42 6m6 minutes ago

With the Dwight Howard trade, only Allen Crabbe will have a guaranteed contract for the Nets in 2019-20. The Nets could potentially have up to $60M+ in room next summer but will be contingent on the restricted free agency of D'Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
   1274. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5695983)
Great deal for Brooklyn. And Dwight finally got to the Nets! Only took him, what, 5 years? Mission accomplished.

   1275. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5695986)
Was peak Amar'e Stoudemire good enough to have played heavy minutes in the conference finals this last year? I'm not sure.

I think so. He was a credible mid to long range 2 shooter, and would surely be stretched out to the 3 point line in today's game. He was obviously never a big plus defensively, but his defensive numbers aren't that bad in his best years.

But to your larger point, yeah, it's unlikely anyone drafted reaches his peak.
   1276. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5695992)
no trade machine needed: who says no?

CHO: #10 (trae young), jerryd bayless
PHI: cody zeller, michael kidd-gilchrist, jeremy lamb
   1277. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5695993)
Was peak Amar'e Stoudemire good enough to have played heavy minutes in the conference finals this last year?


Hell yes he was. 25/10 and 2 blocks on high percentage shooting? He'd be devastating running pick-and-roll with LeBron or Harden, and he wasn't a total liability from midrange.
   1278. . . . . . . Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5695995)
at this point, i think the only way the NBA will go back is by changing the rules (getting rid of offensive fouls in the post) or if something insane happens (like the sixers trading for andre drummond and then demolishing everyone in front of them on the way to a title).


nah. tshipman's analysis is rather primitive and short-sighted - has a lot in common with early sabermetric analysis.
two factors influence player value in any sport. One is the theoretical 'optimal' way to play - i.e., given a set of conditions in effect at a specific time, there's probably a 'best' way to play the game assuming everyone else was also playing that 'best' way. In other words, if the system reached equilibrium, certain players would be more valuable than others based on the rules of the game at that time. This first factor gets muddled because the system never actually reaches equilibrium - the initial conditions constantly change because of changes in the rules (3 point line, foul rules, how refs call games, restricted area, etc) and styles of play have substantial inertia - we probably STILL haven't reached equilibrium regarding the optimal number of 3 pointers to shoot, and that rule changed 30 years ago.

the second factor is random walk, which arises out of game theory. even if you do reach equilibrium for the optimum way to play, you'd still see styles change because of rock paper scissors - natural noise will push teams off of the 'ideal' and then other teams evolve to respond to that and generally style / strategy will meander around the 'ideal'. There's no real underlying 'truth' here and often following the random walk is a mistake because unless the real value is in zigging when other's zag - when everyone is picking centers you pick wings and since wings are undervalued and no one else has them you have a strategic edge, but that quickly erodes when the market follows you and you need to move onto the next new strategy that expoits overabundance of wings, etc.

tshipman thinks all his statistical analysis is uncovering factor 1 - the 'true' best way to play. That is an overaggressive view. There's a lot of factor 2 mixed in as well. What's not clear from any statistical analysis I've seen is (1) how much of the move to wings is random walk and how much is optimization and (2) even if the equilibrium state involves more wings and less bigs than say, 10 years ago, at what point are teams so frantically trying to acquire wings that bigs become undervalued relative to their value even in an 'optimal' scenario and then you can win with a big-focused strategy even though you're moving away from the theoretical optimum. These are difficult problems to solve and I doubt many teams have good answers - maybe the Celtics and Rockets have an idea.

Also, Amare would have been one of the best players on the floor in this finals. He was super athletic before the injuries and he would have different skills trained up in today's game. Ayton will develop differently than a player with the same natural talents 10 years ago so the interesting question is how much height helps in the modern game if the player is trained to play the modern game.
   1279. . . . . . . Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5696000)
One more point to add - my personal observation is that random walk is generally much faster than evolution of the optimal way to play because random walk is a stronger signal and overprints the fundamental changes. Sometimes fundamental change happens quickly but its often punctuated with long periods of stagnation - random walk is almost constant.
   1280. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5696004)
no trade machine needed: who says no?
TOR: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: og anunoby, delon wright, jakob poeltl

no trade machine needed: who says no?
CHI: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: bobby portis, zach lavine

no trade machine needed: who says no?
SAC: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: willie cauley-stein, justin jackson

no trade machine needed: who says no?
ORL: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: evan fournier, terrence ross

no trade machine needed: who says no?
MIL: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: khris middleton, matthew dellavadova
   1281. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:37 AM (#5696007)
no trade machine needed: who says no?

TOR: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: og anunoby, delon wright, jakob poeltl

Toronto, immediately.
   1282. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:38 AM (#5696008)
CHO: #10 (trae young), jerryd bayless
PHI: cody zeller, michael kidd-gilchrist, jeremy lamb

Philly, I think? They don't want Zeller's contract. Also I think MKG might just be terrible, honestly, they can't play a wing that can't shoot next to Simmons and Embiid.
   1283. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5696011)
no trade machine needed: who says no?
CHI: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: bobby portis, zach lavine

I like LaVine for Philly a lot, but on, say, Covington's contract. I'm not sure they should want to pay him 18-20 or anything crazy like that.
   1284. JJ1986 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5696014)
Why do you want the 76ers to take on bad money?
   1285. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 20, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5696046)
Billy King disease - he's just aching to make a deal.
   1286. aberg Posted: June 20, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5696100)
The ringer says that Tobias Harris is a comp for Miles Bridges.


I think Harris is a popular comp because he's the sort of tweener forward who has settled in as a 4 as the league has downsized. He's also useful because he shot 30% on 3s in college, 35% for most of his career, and 40% last year. Could Bridges become a career 35% 3pt shooter? Sure. Could he have one season at 40%? Sure. Is he likely to become an annual 40% shooter? Probably not, and Harris isn't that either.

no trade machine needed: who says no?
SAC: #10, jerryd bayless
PHI: willie cauley-stein, justin jackson


That's the only one on the list that seems possible, but I don't like it for Philly.

Zach Lowe @ZachLowe_NBA 8m8 minutes ago

Unless I'm missing something, Charlotte took on an extra year of Moz salary (19-20) and two seconds to maybe make sure they duck the tax in 18-19? (Nets have a bunch of extra 2nds). Absolutely brutal. Great deal for the Nets.


Speaking as the GM of the fake Horcats, I don't think it's brutal. Getting under the tax should be a priority for Charlotte. They're not remotely a contender. What's the point of paying the tax and potentially hamstringing your decision-making in the future? They also don't have any young guys who imminently need big, new extensions. There's also an element of "We traded Dwight Howard. Great trade, who'd we get?"

What's not clear from any statistical analysis I've seen is (1) how much of the move to wings is random walk and how much is optimization and (2) even if the equilibrium state involves more wings and less bigs than say, 10 years ago, at what point are teams so frantically trying to acquire wings that bigs become undervalued relative to their value even in an 'optimal' scenario and then you can win with a big-focused strategy even though you're moving away from the theoretical optimum.


There's one other element, which is that "optimal way to play" isn't static because the inputs themselves are changing. Guys coming into the league now are better shooters, which changes every team's approach, even holding opposition strategy constant. It's kind of like SBs in baseball- the run scoring environment has an impact on how often a team should attempt to steal (or where the break-even point falls), but if high schools suddenly started producing a plethora of guys who could steal bases at an 85% clip, that would tilt the balance regardless of rules or game theory.
   1287. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 20, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5696108)
The Lakers draft Donte Ingram from Loyola of Chicago.
   1288. PJ Martinez Posted: June 20, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5696109)
Wasserman: "Latest buzz: Hearing Michael Porter and Trae Young are both falling, and that even Knicks could pass on Young at 9. Meanwhile Wendell Carter is gaining steam, strong candidate to go in 4-7 range."
   1289. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5696125)
Why do you want the 76ers to take on bad money?

none of that is bad money. bad money is richer, longer, older and nearly unplayable (biyombo, mozgov, deng, noah, parsons, mahinmi, asik, knight, turner, leonard, smith).
Billy King disease - he's just aching to make a deal.
nah. i'm just spitballing around ways to approach the offseason, given the assumption that lebron and paul george are not potential options.

   1290. aberg Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5696129)
Wasserman: "Latest buzz: Hearing Michael Porter and Trae Young are both falling, and that even Knicks could pass on Young at 9. Meanwhile Wendell Carter is gaining steam, strong candidate to go in 4-7 range."


I'm not the biggest fan of Young, but I think Cleveland should take him if he's there.
   1291. JJ1986 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5696146)
nah. i'm just spitballing around ways to approach the offseason, given the assumption that lebron and paul george are not potential options.
I would just keep Bayless, bring Redick back on a 1-year deal, draft Mikal Bridges if he's available (maybe package the two first-rounders) and try to sign both Ilyasova and a real backup center. Try to get a max guy again summer 2019.
   1292. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5696150)
I don't see them benching Jarett Allen for Dwight Howard, and no way Howard is happy coming off the bench. The Nets do need someone who can rebound, which Howard is one of the few things Howard can do.


So do the Nets go full tank? Demarre Carroll might (maybe?) be able to fetch a low first rounder. Crabbe makes way too much money, but he can shoot very well - trade him for some malcontents with a shorter deal?

Having two max slots open is nice, but having cap space is meaningless if no one wants to take it. The Nets have some nice pieces - LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris (if they re-sign him) has turned himself into a decent player. Russell isn't worth the money and Dinwiddie would be ok as backup PG, but most of his value is that he makes basically the league minimum. That doesn't seem like it will draw any marquee free agents.

   1293. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5696153)
Jake Fischer @JakeLFischer
When Jaren Jackson met with the Thunder at the combine, OKC’s executives began by asking him to sell them a pen like Wolf of Wall Street.
   1294. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5696155)
Inspiring!
Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach
Likely No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on what he would consider a success in the NBA: “Definitely getting to that second contract. That’s my success.”
   1295. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5696158)
Jake Fischer @JakeLFischer

Kevin Knox says one team interview at the Combine pressed him if he had a child. Knox, was surprised, obviously replying “no.” The team asked again, saying their intel had learned he had a child. Knox asked for the kid’s name and the team finally relented, admitting it was hoax.

10:53 AM - 20 Jun 2018


Come on, man, leave that #### to the NFL.
   1296. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5696161)
@JakeLFischer
Kevin Knox says one team interview at the Combine pressed him if he had a child. Knox, was surprised, obviously replying “no.” The team asked again, saying their intel had learned he had a child. Knox asked for the kid’s name and the team finally relented, admitting it was hoax.

@JakeLFischer
As Jeremy alludes to, the Sixers are indeed continuing calls about moving into the Top 5. They have offered packages of picks, but have thus far rebuked including oft-mentioned Robert Covington and Dario Saric, per sources.

@JakeLFischer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best point guard prospect in this draft. Please read the analysis I wrote at 3 a.m.
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/19/nba-draft-2018-debate-guards-trae-young-shai-gilgeous-alexander-collin-sexton
   1297. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: June 20, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5696174)
@JakeLFischer
Kevin Knox says one team interview at the Combine pressed him if he had a child. Knox, was surprised, obviously replying “no.” The team asked again, saying their intel had learned he had a child. Knox asked for the kid’s name and the team finally relented, admitting it was hoax.

wat
   1298. jmurph Posted: June 20, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5696195)
Yaya Dubin @JADubin5
I'm updating salary spreadsheets and good lord the Pistons are damn near over the projected 2019-20 CAP just with Blake-Drummond-Jackson-Leuer-Galloway. If they pick up Kennard and Ellenson's team options, they're already over. Their books are disgusting.

Yaya Dubin @JADubin5
They're also gonna be paying Blake and Drummond alone around 60% of the projected 2020-21 cap. That's malpractice.
   1299. . . . . . . Posted: June 20, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5696208)
There's one other element, which is that "optimal way to play" isn't static because the inputs themselves are changing. Guys coming into the league now are better shooters, which changes every team's approach, even holding opposition strategy constant. It's kind of like SBs in baseball- the run scoring environment has an impact on how often a team should attempt to steal (or where the break-even point falls), but if high schools suddenly started producing a plethora of guys who could steal bases at an 85% clip, that would tilt the balance regardless of rules or game theory.


Yes - that's part of the point, that one of the reasons the game never reaches equilibrium is because the inputs change faster than the game adjusts. It's taken the NBA more than 30 years to adjust to the 3 pointer; baseball players are still increasing FB% even though the environmental driver - the elimination of astroturf and shorter fences - mostly happened in the late 80s and early 90s.
   1300. . . . . . . Posted: June 20, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5696212)
If the Knicks pass on Young to pick Sexton, that will boil our blood, even all of us who generally have become numb.
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